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Young scientists to present at 53rd Upper East Tennessee Science Fair
The 53rd annual Upper East Tennessee Science Fair will bring hundreds of students to ETSU on April 25 to showcase projects that highlight curiosity, hands-on learning and scientific inquiry.
Dollars & Sense: Young adults turn to sports gambling to catch up financially
ARC PDX
Junior Achievement Business Luncheon Celebrates Local Business Leaders, Experian Scholarships
For nearly four decades, Junior Achievement of Arkansas has dedicated itself to the economic, planning and academic success of young
Video: How JD Vance Is Being Tested as Trump’s Chief Defender
Vice President JD Vance has been tasked with defending the Iran war and President Trump’s attacks on Pope Leo XIV. Our White House correspondent Zolan Kanno-Youngs describes how that’s put Vance in a particularly difficult position.
Two inducted into Thomas Green Clemson Academy of Engineers and Scientists
Gary Mercer and Jim Kaplan receive college's highest honor, and Jie Huang, Thomas Kuckhoff and Toni Bloodworth Pence are honored as Outstanding Young Alumni.
Grand Junction students gain real-world business experience through investor pitch event
Young Entrepreneurs Academy participants present months of work to local business leaders for feedback and funding
Grand Junction students gain real-world business experience through investor pitch event
Young Entrepreneurs Academy participants present months of work to local business leaders for feedback and funding
Nominations open for Urbandale chamber’s business awards
The Urbandale Chamber of Commerce has opened nominations for its 2026 Celebration of Business Awards, recognizing local excellence across four categories: Young Professional of the Year, Greg Thompson Small Business of the Year, Business of the Year and Best in Class. Nominations for most categories close at 5 p.m. on May 1, while Best in…
Survey Shows Widespread Use of Apps and Chatbots for Mental Health Support
A survey by the Bipartisan Policy Center highlights growing use of digital and AI-powered tools for mental health, with strong adoption among younger adults and key access gaps in rural communities.
Students compete in statewide health competition at Mercy College of Ohio
Janice Servick, dean of nursing at Mercy College of Ohio, had a full circle moment at the college Thursday. She stood before dozens of students, young ...
Boomers won't run politics forever. Gen Z isn't ready.
Courtesy | Unsplash The end of the baby boomers’ 40-year reign is almost at hand. The scepter will presently fall to a young generation that is staggeringly unprepared to receive it. Since the foreshocks of succession first began to rattle American politics in the early-to-mid-2010s, candidates and their parties began to pander to the youngest...
Gen Z is at the precipice of political power in Wisconsin. Will they use it?
Poll after poll shows that America’s youngest voters have grown increasingly disillusioned with the traditional political system.
Wales' party leaders say how they engage young people in politics
Party leaders each face questions from an audience of voters in Llandudno.
‘Show Me Science’ showcases student research and innovation
Young minds from across Missouri are gathered this week at St. Charles Community College for the inaugural Show Me Science competition, Mo.’s first state science fair. The event features 215 …
Meghan Markle Says She Was Once the 'Most Trolled Person in the Entire World'
Meghan Markle and Prince Harry visited a youth mental health group during the third day of their trip to Australia. During a discussion with young people, Meghan said she was once 'the most trolled person in the entire world' and she has been 'bullied and attacked' every day for 10 years on social media.
Local priest recalls woman, who cut young boy in Walmart, barricading in rectory years prior
When the priest heard Guzman had slashed a 3-year-old boy’s face in a Walmart parking lot, he wasn't surprised.
Seattle Reign Goalkeeper Evan O’Steen signs extension through 2030
Today, the Seattle Reign announced that goalkeeper Evan O’Steen has signed a contract extension through 2030. She becomes the longest contracted player on the roster. O’Steen previously became the youngest goalkeeper signing in club history at just 17 years old. “Securing Evan O’Steen through 2030 is an important step in building long-term stability within our […]
Life-threatening virus that causes vomiting and diarrhea at high levels in the U.S., CDC says
Rotavirus is highly contagious, fast-moving and especially dangerous for babies and young children. Doctors worry declining vaccination rates could lead to more hospitalizations.
Supporting students before, during, and after mental health crisis
Nationally, suicide remains one of the leading causes of death among college-aged young adults.
FDA to weigh easing limits on unproven peptides favored by RFK Jr. and other MAHA figures
Peptides are unproven chemicals often pitched as way to build muscle, lose weight, look younger.
Fund science, downtown living expensive, protect America
I enjoyed reading the article about how Artemis II “captivated Americans young and old across political divides, bringing unity of wonder, hope and pride to a nation torn by partisan
JD Vance Heckled In Antiwar Protest at Turning Point USA Event
Vice President JD Vance appeared to express sympathy with critics of the war with Iran: “I recognize that young voters do not love the policy we have in the Middle East, OK. I understand.”
NASA Finds Young Stars Dim in X-rays Surprisingly Quickly
Unlike in the new movie “Project Hail Mary,” this quieting of young stars is a benefit for the prospects for life on orbiting planets around these stars — not
Study finds no link between medical gender reassignment and improved mental health among young people
An extensive register-based study conducted in Finland has found an increase in severe mental health problems among some adolescents and young adults who have undergone medical gender reassignment (GR). ...
Mets-Dodgers Preview
Baseball's best team will encounter one of the game's hottest young pitchers when the Los Angeles Dodgers face a test from New York Mets right-hander Nolan McLean on Tuesday.
Young voters shun Trump, plan to vote blue in midterms, poll says
With the midterm primary season underway, a new national poll is measuring how the nation's youngest voters feel about Trump and the November election.
2026 RBC Heritage odds, picks, field, date: Surprising PGA predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the RBC Heritage 2026 10,000 times and revealed golf picks for Hilton Head
Why Phillies should think long term with Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter
The Phillies have two young building blocks in Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter. With labor uncertainty ahead, early extensions would make sense.
'New Estêvão'? Palmeiras gem on City Group's radar: details
Young forward Eduardo Conceição, just 16 years old, is drawing attention from the European market.In excellent form for Brazil at the South American Under-17 Championship, where he has already recor...
Trump, 79, Posts Bonkers ‘Forever Young’ Video of Himself Amid Health Fears
The AI-slop video depicted the president from age 4 onwards.
30 Under 30 Europe Entertainment 2026: Mau P, Marisa Abela & Other Breakout Stars To Watch
The future of sports is already here thanks to these young all-stars who are winning on and off the field.
30 Under 30 Europe Science & Healthcare 2026: The Founders Using AI To Empower Patients And Unlock Scientific Mysteries
These young entrepreneurs, researchers and doctors are improving healthcare, empowering patients and building the hardware of the future.
30 Under 30 Europe Sports & Games 2026: How Ellie Kildunne, Eberechi Eze And More Turn Competition Into Commercial Success
Ellie Kildunne, Antoine Dupont and Eberechi Eze are taking their winnings off the field. How these young leaders and more are changing sports, games and business for good.
Eye on the Y: BYU neuroscience student advances science of seizure intervention, Elder Ulisses Soares to speak at April 2026 commencement and Grantwell program gives students opportunities to work with nonprofit organizations
Melissa Blotter: Advancing the science of seizure intervention
Political newcomer running for Rep. Golden's seat in US House
At 29 years old, Paige Loud is the youngest candidate in the Democratic primary race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
I regret putting my kids in so many structured activities
I felt pressure to sign my kids up for a lot of activities when they were younger. The time, expense, and stress wasn't worth it.
Online Sports Betting Is Fueling Financial Risk in Florida
Experts warn that permissive policies and app-based betting are accelerating addiction, especially among young men.
Former Bills great @StevieJohnson13 mentoring WR Keon Coleman
Former Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson has taken Keon Coleman under his wing entering the young receiver’s third NFL season.
Business continues ‘pay it forward pizza’ program
A local business is still continuing its pizza giveaway program to help those in need.
Week of the Young Child at Science City
Science City Outreach Education Lead Jordan Fox joins Shane and Kerrigan to share all the details on the upcoming Week of the Young Child.
Why Young People Are Poised to Save Movie Theaters, In-Person Entertainment
A National Research Group study finds that Gen Z and Gen Alpha audiences express the highest interest in leaving their homes for movies, entertainment
BYU professor seeks to improve local political outreach
Looking to reform local political efforts in Utah County, Darin Self has a community-based approach to getting people involved in politics.
Gil Carter
No matter what, Gil Carter was always going to find a career in education. “When people like politics, there’s the old saying that they have been ‘bitten by the bug.’ I was bitten at a young age,” laughed Carter, an assistant professor in Mississippi State University’s Department of Communication, Media and Theatre.
Argentine bishop offers advice to young people who wish to enter politics
Bishop Juan Liébana of Chascomús, Argentina, describes the ideal profile of a politician: a person of great virtue and integrity intent on building a better society.
How is online abuse putting young people off Manx politics?
A youth parliamentary committee warns online abuse is impacting attitudes towards Manx politics.
‘I’m playing the long game’: Journalists are striking out alone and discovering the business is toughest beat of all
News Creators have become preferred sources for younger viewers, but how do they grow and sustain their independent endeavors?
Woman, 26, Had Excessive Itching but Was Told 'It's Just One of Those Things.' She Then Self-Diagnosed Her Cancer (Exclusive)
A young woman suffered from excessive itching and was dismissed by multiple doctors, before she eventually self-diagnosed herself with cancer. Sumbul Ari recalls her health journey in an exclusive interview with PEOPLE.
The Latest: Final round of the 90th Masters has arrived
The final round of the 90th Masters has arrived, and it’s a tight race for the green jacket. Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young enter the round tied atop the leaderboard, and six others are within four shots after a dramatic Saturday. Sam Burns is one shot off the lead, Shane Lowry is two, and two-time Masters winner Scottie Scheffler lurks four shots back.
Coachella 2026 YouTube livestream: How to watch Karol G on Sunday
How to watch Coachella 2026 Day 3 YouTube livestream: Karol G, BigBang, Laufey, Little Simz, Kaskade, Young Thug, FKA Twigs, Subtronics and more.
Previewing the 2026 season for Penn State TE Brian Kortovich
Brian Kortovich is a young, talented tight end looking to carve out a role in Penn State’s new-look tight end room.
My brother doesn't blink. The internet noticed — and fell in love.
"Blink, Brother, blink." The story behind Jan Risher's younger brother, Brother Blink — the man, the merchandise and a moment they shared as children— with speakers turned toward a front yard full of loblolly pines.
Marlins-Tigers finale features Cy Young Award matchup
The Detroit Tigers are hoping the third time's the charm early in the season.
Young Republicans more skeptical of Iran war, dividing Trump base
Even within Trump’s GOP base, cracks are showing when it comes to the Iran conflict. Younger Republicans are much less likely to support the war.
Young entrepreneurs shine at Memphis Children’s Business Fair
MEMPHIS, Tenn. — Dozens of Mid-South kids put their creativity and business skills to the test Saturday during the Annual Memphis Children’s Business Fair. The event, held April 11 at Wolfcha…
Who will win 2026 Masters? Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young on top as Scottie Scheffler leads chase pack
McIlroy's shocking stumble brought several contenders into the mix ahead of Sunday's final round at Augusta National
2026 Masters tee times, pairings: Complete schedule, groups, field for Round 4 on Sunday at Augusta National
The quest to win the first major championship of 2026 continues on Saturday at Augusta National Golf Club with Rory McIlroy well out in front
Cameron Young had a Saturday rally at the Masters
Cameron Young had an incredible rally on Saturday at the Masters
Young sibling duo starts small bread making business
Our team stopped by the Youngstown Flea this afternoon and found 12-year-old Gloria, and her 10-year-old brother Israel running their own stall.
Young sibling duo starts small bread making business
Our team stopped by the Youngstown Flea this afternoon and found 12-year-old Gloria, and her 10-year-old brother Israel running their own stall.
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Maryland Curiosity Lab Children’s Business Fair Draws Big Crowd in Severna Park
The Maryland Curiosity Lab’s Children’s Business Fair drew a strong crowd Saturday at Park Plaza in Severna Park, where more than 80 booths filled the event with young entrepreneurs selling everyth…
Youth wheelchair racing clinic helps athletes prepare for Boston Marathon
“It’s so good to see them at such a young age getting involved in sports."
Babies too young for MMR vaccine become ‘sitting ducks’ in measles outbreaks
Babies too young to be vaccinated are among the most vulnerable in a measles outbreak and depend entirely on herd immunity.
Chelsea Star Speaks On Exit From Manchester United
Garnacho, Chelsea Move Signals Reflection After Man United ExitThere is often a moment, quiet and uncomfortable, when a young footballer begins to understand that talent alone does not carry a career....
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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The Boundless Deep: Young Tennyson, Science, and the Crisis of Belief by Richard Holmes
Pantheon Review by Walter Cummins The image of Alfred Tennyson I’ve carried for decades goes back to the childhood card game of Authors that depicts him with a stately continence sharpened by a jutting black beard. He’s formidable, his aura superior. Holmes opens his biography of the youthful Tennyson by describing the similar formality of the imposing Tennyson statue at Trinty College Cambridge, sharing the honor with other Trinity greats, including Isaac Newton, Francis Bacon, and Thomas Babington Macaulay. Holmes doesn’t want to chip away at that statue but rather reveal its inner youthful core of the man—tall, handsome, and talented but unformed, emerging from a disturbed family of addicted or insane male siblings and four unusual sisters struggling under a violent alcoholic clergyman father. Alfred was certainly statuesque, but would he end up a block of unformed stone like his equally promising brothers? He was youngest of three equally regarded Tennyson brothers at Cambridge, all bright, handsome, and talented, in fact Alfred regarded by some as less promising than his elders who also wrote poetry. Yet Alfred wrote one of his major poems, “The Kraken,” at twenty, revealing both his talent, his interest in geological forces, and the haunting creature that embodied his anxieties. While Holmes focuses on Tennyson of the 1830s and 1840s, he can’t tell his story without exploring his involvement with the Victorian intellectual upheaval. Tennyson was fascinated by new scientific perspectives, following the latest findings as soon as books and articles were published. He was especially taken with Charles Lyell’s deep studies of geology and the discovery of fossils and a timeline of the planet’s development that did much to question fundamental religious assumptions. The impact of these discoveries is reflected in Tennyson’s poetry and led to the crisis in belief he shared with so many contemporaries. He was especially taken by the cycles of destruction and renewal that informed the struggles he confronted in In Memoriam, Maud, and Idylls of the King. Tennyson was only one of the eventual major figures at Cambridge at the same time, young men just beginning to realize their potential. Charles Darwin was at Christ College, although there is no evidence that he and Tennyson even met as students or later in life. Yet evolution became significant in Tennyson’s thinking and the issues of his poetry. One of Tennyson’s best and most important Cambridge friends was Edward FitzGerald, who became the translator of The Rubáiyát of Omar Khayyám and in their on and off relationship served as Tennyson’s harshest critic. FitzGerald was also a friend of the novelist William Makepeace Thackeray, the two of them partying in Paris as undergraduates. That connection led to a friendship between Thackeray and Tennyson. Others who came to play significant roles in Tennyson’s life were Thomas Carlyle, the Brownings, and the Pre-Raphaelites. Tennyson’s deepest friend at college was Arthur Hallam, who at twenty wrote a glowing review of Tennyson’s first poetry collection, travelled on European adventures with him, and fell in love with his sister Emily. Hallam was also regarded as one more very promising Cambridge student. His sudden death at twenty-two in Vienna from a stroke while travelling with his father devastated many friends, but perhaps Tennyson most of all. He did not write immediate poems of grief but took years to compile those collected in In Memoriam A.H.H., published in 1850, almost twenty years after Hallam’s death For all of Tennyson’s early poetic successes and successes, Holmes reveals him as an often troubled young man suffering periods of depression, fearing planetary upheaval, concerned about supporting himself, disappointed in romances, and worried that he would inherit the family’s mental illness tendencies. Yet despite his seeming withdrawals, he was always writing poetry that he kept private and would not let go, constantly revising. 1850 became a transformative year for Tennyson. He finally consented to publishing In Memoriam with a last-minute prologue that acknowledged God and perhaps convinced the religious Emily Sellwood to marry him after years of pursuit.. He opened up to Emily, revealing his struggles with fears of depression and “weird seizures.” The devastating event of that time was the stillborn death of his unnamed first son. It shook him, but Emily’s faith brought them closer and convinced him to believe in an afterlife. Two later sons survived. With the death of William Wordworth in April of 1950, Tennyson was named poet laureate at age forty-one, reluctantly accepting. It’s as if Tennyson’s life split in half in that year. He lived another forty years, now a recognized success, with the prestige of being an official poet writing patriotic verse, wealthy and revered, no longer the insecure young man seeking an outlet for his immense talent. He earned a place in the Authors deck, now dignified and in 1884 elevated to the peerage as Arthur, Lord Tennyson. Richard Holmes is the author of twenty previous books on the Romantics and Victorians, several of which received awards. The Boundless Deep was shortlisted for the 2025 Baillie Gifford Prize for Non-Fiction. He captures the complex vicissitudes of Tennyson’s youth, illustrated by frequent excerpts from the poetry, placing that life in the full context of the shattering discoveries that led to an upheaval of thought in the Victorian age.
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