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Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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Sitting in a coffee shop in his hometown of Ann Arbor, Abdul El-Sayed is ready to dispel the notion that he’s unelectable. “I think there is this notion that electability is about being the least offensive,” he told CNN. “If that were true, why would Donald Trump have won the presidency twice?” Whether he’s right could have enormous ramifications for control of the Senate. Michigan’s open Senate seat is now emerging as a GOP hedge against a potential takeover for Democrats, who need to net four seats to flip the chamber. Losing Michigan would make the Democrats’ task almost impossible, a major reason why a leading Republican outside group just announced plans to pour $45 million into the state this summer and fall to boost former Rep. Mike Rogers, the likely GOP nominee. El-Sayed faces US Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow in a battle already riven by divides over Israel, immigration enforcement and health care.
Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I
In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.
Pope Leo’s target is bigger than Trump. He’s rebuking the ‘MAGA Jesus’
If you think the clash between Pope Leo XIV and President Donald Trump is just a war of words that will pass when the news cycle moves on, you are most likely mistaken.
Explore maps of downtown Royals stadium: See size, entertainment district & more
These maps show where key elements could fall, including home plate, the outfield and a potential entertainment district modeled after developments like Wrigleyville in Chicago.
Trump wants a sculpture garden for America’s 250th birthday. Sources say it’s unlikely even one statue will be ready.
It was envisioned as an expansive sculpture garden to honor America’s 250th birthday, with 250 statues of figures like Kobe Bryant, Elvis Pressley and Rosa Parks.
Liverpool enter transfer race to sign 21-year-old colossus
Arne Slot has already admitted that change is on its way to Anfield next season. And, while most fans want the Dutchman to be sacked and replaced by Xabi Alonso, it doesn't feel like Fenway Sports Gro...
Michigan betting that space is next frontier to create jobs
Michigan is playing a key role in the US space industry, contributing to the Artemis II rocket mission. Products from Michigan-based companies, like Moeller Aerospace and Elmet Technologies, were part
Beshear urges Democrats to 'talk like a normal human being' to voters
Michigan Democrats gathered Saturday in Detroit to honor outgoing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Her Kentucky counterpart had a message on voter messaging.
Denver Nuggets, Colorado Rapids bring over 90,000 sports fans to the metro area Saturday
Those in Denver on Saturday likely noticed it was a little more crowded than usual. It wasn't just the nice weather; two big sports games brought tens of thousands of fans to the stands.
Think AI "knows" what it’s doing? Scientists say think again
Calling AI things like “smart” or saying it “knows” something might sound harmless, but it can quietly mislead people about what AI actually does. A new study shows that news writers are more careful than expected, rarely using strongly human-like language. When they do, it often falls on a spectrum—sometimes describing simple requirements, other times hinting at human traits.
This week in politics: How Schuylkill County’s legislators voted
Between ongoing budget stalemates and severe partisan divides, it can be easy to feel like nothing is getting done in government. But every week is a busy week in politics, and important developments are happening at both the state and…
iPhone 18 Pro Report: Four New Colors Leak As Apple Cancels Popular Shade
What will the iPhone 18 Pro look like? A new leak has the answer of what to expect this fall.
Trump is savaging allies who criticize the Iran war. But he’s treating Joe Rogan very differently
The way Joe Rogan tells it, about all President Donald Trump needed before he fast-tracked research into therapeutic uses for certain psychedelic treatments like Ibogaine was a text from a podcaster.
5 surreal and striking sci-fi anime to watch while you play Pragmata
Find your next favorite anime with these Pragmata look-alikes
Trump signs order to hasten review of psychedelics
Ibogaine and other psychedelics remain banned under the federal government's most restrictive category for illegal, high-risk drugs. But the administration is taking steps to ease restrictions and spur research on using the drugs for medical purposes, including conditions like severe depression.
Eight days key to Portsmouth's likely survival
While Portsmouth are not mathematically safe, their past three results in eight days have been crucial to their hopes of staying up.
Trump signs order to speed up review of psychedelic drugs for mental health treatment
The order eases restrictions on psychedelic drugs like ibogaine to spur research on using the them for medical purposes.
macOS 27 Will Mark the End of an Era
During its Platforms State of the Union segment at WWDC 2025, Apple revealed that macOS 26 Tahoe is the final major macOS version for Intel-based Macs. The upcoming macOS 27 release will be compatible with Apple silicon Macs only, meaning that you will need a Mac with an M-series chip or a MacBook Neo with an A18 Pro chip in order to install the software update. macOS 27 should be available in beta starting in June, and the update will likely be widely released in September.
Top Stories: 'iPhone Ultra' Rumors, Mac Mini and Mac Studio Shortages, and More
It was another busy week of Apple news and rumors, with upcoming Apple product categories like the foldable iPhone and smart glasses featuring prominently in the news.
Health-Tracking Pet Collar Acts Like a Smartwatch for Dogs and Cats
Tractive has two new smart collars armed with GPS tracking, AI-powered health monitoring and other tech tools.
Pragmata works because it isn't a "sad dad" game
Despite appearances, Pragmata isn't a "sad dad" game, but an example of upbeat, non-toxic masculinity. It's more like a dad cab game.
This May Be Why Eric Swalwell Thought He Could Get Away With It
Party leaders treated him like a man who could do no wrong. That was ... a mistake.
Mamdani's pied-à-terre tax would hit billionaires: Trump, Bezos, Griffin
New York City's proposed pied-à-terre tax targets billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Ken Griffin with luxury second homes.
High gas prices become another midterm warning sign for Republicans
In a midterm election that will likely be decided by how voters feel about the economy, Republicans are grappling with how to discuss the war in Iran and its impact on fuel costs.
‘ComEd Four’: The case that once rocked Illinois politics now on shaky ground
After a pair of Supreme Court rulings on central issues like bribery and false statements, followed by a lightning-quick reversal by a Chicago appeals court, the ComEd Four case that once rocked Illinois politics is on an increasingly shaky…
In unlikely return to playoffs, Penguins' Big Three stave off swan song
For the first 16 seasons of Kris Letang’s career, the Penguins made the playoffs. So these last three years of watching the postseason from home...
Barcelona finally seeing results as key versatile playmaker finds form
At one point this season, it looked like Dani Olmo was slipping down the pecking order at Barcelona. The Spaniard faced intense competition from Fermin Lopez for the attacking midfield role, with the...
USWNT beats Japan 3-0, displaying dominance after Tuesday’s loss
On a cool night at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colo., the U.S. women’s national team didn’t just beat Japan, it looked like itself again. And at the very center of their 3-0 score was defender Kennedy Wesley. After a scoreless first half, Wesley set up Naomi Girma in the 47th minute, who calmly finished at the back post. Less than 10 minutes after the first goal, Wesley intercepted a pass and found Lindsey Heaps in midfield. Heaps slipped it to Rodman, who dribbled her defender
Microsoft Expands Xbox Mode to Windows Laptops, PCs, and Tablets
We recently reported on Microsoft renaming the Xbox Full-Screen Experience to Xbox mode and subsequently updating the gaming UI with new display options for gaming handhelds. Most recently, though, Microsoft has announced that it will be bringing that console-like UI to more devices. Many of these d...