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Star of Japanese hit series 'The Solitary Gourmet' hopes to share its joy of eating
Japanese TV drama “The Solitary Gourmet” quietly started in a late-night slot 14 years ago featuring a suit-clad, middle-aged man’s joy of solitary dining at a local eatery after work | KMBZ
Dining, lodging businesses struggle as middle-class Minnesotans cut back
Decline in leisure spending signals strain for the state’s nearly $9 billion hospitality industry.
First-Year Business Student Invites UConn Diners to ‘Swipe’ for Easy Dining Hall Nutrition Info
Each day, Swipe collects data from Dining Services about the menu items offered in each location and serves it up through an easy-to-use interface
America's Open for Business
Just over one year into the second Trump presidency, trillions of dollars have poured into American manufacturing, AI infrastructure, energy, and technology. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent makes the case for how the administration’s bold trade policy, deregulation, and America First economics are redefining the United States as the world’s premier destination for capital.
Cowboys news: Draft experts have Dallas trading up
Here's the latest news pertaining to the Dallas Cowboys.
Warriors rally to eliminate Clippers, 76ers reach NBA playoffs
Golden State star Stephen Curry scored the go-ahead three-pointer with 50 seconds left as the Warriors rallied to beat the Los Angeles Clippers 126-121 and stay alive in the NBA play-in on Wednesday.Orlando trailed by just four with four minutes remaining, but the Sixers pulled away with a late spurt capped by Drummond's three-pointer with 41 seconds left. bb/tc
Fool’s gold isn’t so foolish: Scientists find hidden treasure in pyrite
Researchers have discovered lithium hidden in pyrite within ancient shale rocks—an unexpected find that could reshape how we source this critical battery material. It raises the possibility of extracting lithium from existing waste, reducing the need for new mining.
EMS Week in Saline County highlights mental health challenges for first responders
EMS Week in Saline County is shining a spotlight on first responders while drawing attention to the mental health challenges that come with the job.A new partne
Life-threatening virus that causes vomiting and diarrhea at high levels in the U.S., CDC says
Rotavirus is highly contagious, fast-moving and especially dangerous for babies and young children. Doctors worry declining vaccination rates could lead to more hospitalizations.
Hamilton County unveils new business incubator plans as current tenants fear costly move
A day after small business owners raised concerns about the possible sale of their building, Hamilton County leaders are outlining where the incubator could go
New dining and entertainment concept coming to Commerce City
A new eatertainment venue is coming to Commerce City. From the creator of OverFlyte Denver, the new venue is to feature food, drinks, games, multi-sports and golf simulators, as well as a coffee and ...
How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: Matthias Matthijs | Council on Foreign Relations
Matthias Matthijs’s career has spanned academia and think tanks. He sat down with CFR to discuss the benefits of observing European politics from afar, the importance of remaining open-minded in your career, and conducting dissertation research in London’s House of Lords tea room.
TAX DAY: New Report Highlights Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Ohio
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the nation’s leading small business advocacy organization, released a new report outlining the economic benefits and massive tax savings the 20% Small Business Tax Deduction will bring to the 1.1 million small businesses in Ohio now that it has
State approves $3 Million for Northwest Jacksonville programs for small businesses, crime prevention
City officials announced that the state has approved a $3 million appropriation to support programs in northwest Jacksonville aimed at boosting small businesses, expanding vocational and workforce training, addressing food insecurity and preventing youth crime.
Five players miss Arsenal’s training ahead of the Sporting game
Arsenal are set to face Sporting Club in the Champions League in a matter of hours, but concerns are growing over the potential absence of several key players. The Gunners have enjoyed an impressive s...
PSA president and CEO Dion Flannery named a Charlotte Business Journal Most Admired CEO
Charlotte, N.C. — PSA Airlines President and Chief Executive Officer Dion Flannery has been named a recipient of the Charlotte Business Journal’s annual Most Admired CEO award, recognizing outstanding leadership, strategic vision, and positive impact on the regional business community. The award honors executives who demonstrate exemplary leadership, inspire their teams, and contribute meaningfully to their organizations and the Charlotte region. Flannery was recognized for guiding PSA Airlines through continued growth while maintaining a focus on safety, operational excellence, and a people-first culture. “We’re honored that Dion has been recognized by the Charlotte Business Journal for his leadership and contributions that benefit PSA, the American Airlines Group, and the community in our new home in Charlotte....
New Willmar entertainment venue teaming up with Rendezvous Axe Throwing
(Willmar MN-) Shining Light Entertainment at The Uptown Willmar Mall is getting closer to opening. Co-Owner Jason Miller says in addition to laser tag and mini-golf, they will be teaming up with Rendezvous Axe Throwing......Victoria Hibma of Rendezvous Axe Throwing says their location on West Litchfield Avenue is now closed and the building, which also houses an operating laundry mat, is for sale. They are in the process of moving their throwing lanes and kitchen equipment to the Shining Light location, across from Golden Ticket Cinema, in the former Chen Garden Restaurant space. Shining Light had hoped to open this past winter, but Miller now hopes to be in operation in less than 2 months......
Rainier, University of Oklahoma Foundation to Build $1.1B Rock Creek Entertainment District in Norman
NORMAN, OKLA. — Rainier Development Co. has executed a master development agreement with the University of Oklahoma Foundation for the planned Rock Creek Entertainment District, a $1.1 billion project in Norman. Rainier will lead planning, design, coordination and development of the 269-acre district in collaboration with Cleveland County, the City of Norman, the University of Oklahoma, community stakeholders and other development partners. Rock Creek Entertainment District is envisioned as a year-round destination that will include an 8,000-seat performance venue designed to host concerts, conventions and community events, as well as University of Oklahoma men’s and women’s basketball games and women’s gymnastics events. Plans for Phase I of Rock Creek include the performance venue; a central outdoor plaza; approximately 140,000 square feet of retail, dining and entertainment experiences; roughly 250 multifamily units; and a structured parking garage with 1,200 spaces. Phased openings of the venue, restaurants and retail are expected to begin in 2028. Phase II will include approximately 180,000 square feet of office space and a 150-room hotel. Phase III calls for 500 additional multifamily units, as well as townhomes and single-family residences. Future phases are anticipated to include additional expansion, subject to market conditions and planning. The project, located…
ETSU Health receives $2.4M grant to expand care for unhoused communities
ETSU Health Family Medicine’s new street medicine program brings care directly to people experiencing homelessness while training resident physicians.
Live updates: Senate to vote on reining in Trump's Iran war powers
Get live updates and the latest news as Senate votes on reining in Trump's Iran war powers and Vance rebukes Pope Leo over his criticisms of U.S. foreign policy.
Test your knowledge of local history on The Quest
The Quest is a unique game combining elements of a reality TV show and a traditional scavenger hunt, aimed at educating participants about the interesting facts surrounding Linn County's and Cedar Rapids' history.
No let-up from Southend after reaching play-offs
Southend United captain Gus Scott-Morriss rules out the team taking a breather in their three remaining National League games after securing a play-off place for the second consecutive year.
How Penn Dining selects campus business partners, determines payment methods
The Daily Pennsylvanian spoke with members of the Penn Dining team to learn how the University selects business partners and decides which payment methods are accepted at different dining locations.
Primary Care Training Expands Access to Pediatric Mental Healthcare for Anxiety and Depression
Training and coaching can equip primary care clinicians to take on a larger role in pediatric mental healthcare.
Scientists just solved a 160-million-year fossil mystery “I’ve never seen anything like it”
A rare fossil discovery is shedding light on the “missing years” of early sponge evolution. Scientists found a 550-million-year-old sponge that likely lacked hard skeletal parts, explaining why earlier fossils are so scarce. This supports the idea that the earliest sponges were soft-bodied and rarely preserved. The finding changes how researchers hunt for the origins of animal life.
Bridgeport seeks new use for arena as Islanders prepare to leave
Wanted: Someone who knows what to do with an empty, quarter-century-old, 10,000-seat sports and entertainment arena containing an ice rink.
Microsoft's massive Patch Tuesday: It's raining bugs
: One CVE under attack, one already disclosed by angry bug hunter, and 163 more
Boone Health, Missouri Heart Center progress toward split
Boone Health withdrew its request for a temporary restraining order against its contracted private cardiology provider.
This fall’s iPhone 18 launch lineup has one big wildcard remaining
Rumors about this fall’s new iPhone 18 lineup keep coming, but there’s one big question mark still: how many iPhones will Apple launch?
MusiCares Launches Groundbreaking Suicide Prevention Training And Mental Health Resources For Music Professionals In Partnership With The Jed Foundation
The groundbreaking digital microsite provides suicide prevention and mental health resources, evidence-informed learning and support tools, and a suicide prevention training course — all tailored to music professionals.
Industry Insight: See How Your Business Compares With Pay and Benefits for Key Roles
The Scoop’s annual salary survey offers benchmarking data to aid with recruiting and retaining ag retail employees.
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting as Trump seeks to limit it
The 30-second message features a variety of voters, among them a busy farmer and a flight attendant, explaining why they cast their ballots by mail.
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting
The 30-second union ad features voters explaining why they vote by mail and will start airing in Ohio this week
Q&A with chemist Max Delferro: Unlocking breakthroughs in catalytic science
In this Q&A, chemist Max Delferro explains how his team is combining catalysis, artificial intelligence and robotics to speed chemical discovery — cutting catalyst development from decades to years while advancing more efficient industrial processes.
Despite Israeli firepower, Netanyahu struggles for political gains in Iran war
The Iran war was meant to deliver a defining victory over Tehran that would secure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's place in history. More than six weeks into the conflict, he has been unable to translate military might into political gain.
Inside Gaming: Strip room rates gradually increasing, analyst says
Plus, a temporary restraining order blocking the enforcement of Arizona gaming laws against prediction markets has been ordered in U.S. District Court in Arizona.
6 Arsenal youth players join senior training pre-Sporting clash
Six Arsenal youth players were spotted in first-team training ahead of Wednesday’s match against Sporting CP, with at least one expected to make the senior squad for the game.Photo via Mitchell on I...
Register for 25Live training at Health Sciences Center
The Facilities Planning and Scheduling team will provide a 25Live training session from 2-3 p.m. on May 8 at the Health Sciences Center.
Scientists discover why bread can cause weight gain without extra calories
Bread and other carbohydrate staples may be doing more than just filling plates—they could be quietly reshaping metabolism. In a surprising twist, researchers found that mice strongly preferred carbs like bread, rice, and wheat, abandoning their regular diet entirely. Even without eating more calories, they gained weight and body fat, not because they overate, but because their bodies burned less energy.
Q&A with chemist Max Delferro: Unlocking breakthroughs in catalytic science
In this Q&A, chemist Max Delferro explains how his team is combining catalysis, artificial intelligence and robotics to speed chemical discovery — cutting catalyst development from decades to years while advancing more efficient industrial processes.
Building a mission-ready DAF mental health enterprise for the future fight
Air Force Medical Service leaders advanced the efforts to align mental health policy, training and leadership practices to mission readiness requirements outlined in the Department of War’s 2026 National Defense Strategy, during the Mental Health Leadership and Readiness Symposium in Orlando, Florida, on March 9-12.
Asking Eric: ‘Extremely online’ girlfriend shares too much
My friend sent me some of the links ... it wasn’t bad stuff, per se. Just her talking about going out to dinner with me or complaining about how I sleep ...
Key players miss training before Sporting clash
Five of Arsenal's key players were missing from the open part of training before the Gunners quarter-final second-leg match against Sporting in the Champions League. Arsenal have a 1-0 advantage from the first leg but have a number of injury issues in the squad. Declan Rice, who played 90 minutes of Arsenal's 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth at the weekend, was not seen in the first 15 minutes of the training session that was open to the media.
Safeguarding health care in rural Missouri demands a new approach
Missouri lawmakers are right to treat the collapse of rural health care as an urgent crisis. Nearly half of the state’s remaining rural hospitals are at risk of closure, and many communities already know what it means to lose emergency rooms, labor and delivery services and timely stroke care. In this environment, legislation allowing MU […]
The Salary Penalty: Why Trump’s Tax Bill Hits a Banker Harder Than a Plumber
These days the biggest factor determining what high earners owe the government is how they make their money.
The Armory brings big-city fun and elevated dining to Maryville
It's a multimillion dollar project that has taken nearly a decade of development. The entertainment venue is also a full-scale restaurant and bar.
STAR Seminar- Reimagining Youth Sport as a Brain-Based Environment for Mental Health
Youth mental health challenges are rising globally, yet one of the most accessible youth-serving systems — sport— remains underutilized as a public health strategy. This Stress, Trauma, and Resilience (STAR) Seminar explores how insights from developmental neuroscience, trauma research, and sport-based youth development can transform everyday sport experiences into environments that promote regulation, connection, and resilience.
Capela Delivers Big Night - And a First Career Three
Clint Capela dominates the glass and scores a season-high, sinking his first-ever three-pointer in a career-defining performance.
Google.org and the Johnson & Johnson Foundation are launching a $10 million initiative to train rural U.S. healthcare workers in AI.
Google is providing AI training and grants to help rural health clinics use tools that improve operations for healthcare workers.
2026 WNBA Draft: How much will No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd make in her rookie season with the Dallas Wings?
Rookie contracts are richer than ever thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement
LinkedIn enters AI training market, challenges startups
LinkedIn is launching an AI labor marketplace, offering up to $150 an hour for AI training, challenging startups like Mercor and Surge AI.
Play-in tournament will decide final 4 spots in NBA playoff field
Ten teams are done for the season. Another 12 are in the playoffs. That leaves eight for the four remaining playoff spots.
Take a Step Toward Better Health with SGMC Health’s “Walk with a Doc” Event
SGMC Health invites the community to take a step toward better health by joining a Walk with a Doc event led by physicians and residents from SGMC Health’s Medical Education Program. The […]
Public Health Actions for Extreme Heat Protections
The National Association of Community Health Centers (NACHC), National Network of Public Health Institutes (NNPHI), American Public Health Association (APHA), and ecoAmerica are partnering to offer the Public Health Actions for Extreme Heat Protections Training.
THCA Flower Sales Resume in Texas After Judge Grants TRO
Administrative agency rules that had banned smokable flower are now on pause due to the temporary restraining order.
Poll: Democrats gaining ground, key races tighten in Florida as Donald Trump drags GOP
Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Democrats, a shift pollsters say could reshape Florida’s political map after years of Republican dominance.
Kansas governor signs sports authority bill to guide Kansas City Chiefs’ developments
The governor, state legislative leaders and owners of the NFL franchise announced in December the framework of a deal for developing a domed stadium surrounded by an entertainment district in Wyandotte County, in addition to the team’s headquarters, training facility and related developments in Johnson County.
Smart Adhesive Is Key to Crease-Free Foldable iPhone Display
Advances in optically clear adhesive (OCA) will be a key factor in achieving a near-invisible crease in Apple's first foldable iPhone expected later this year, according to TrendForce. The supply chain intelligence firm outlined the key technologies in a new report on foldable display innovation, explaining that creases form when layers within the display panel fall out of alignment, concentrating stress at the fold and causing micro-cracks or permanent deformation over time.
The Strokes line up band's first area headlining show in 20 years
Tickets for the band's June concert go on sale Friday.
Matrix Business Systems Builds a Better Way to Manage Print
Education partnership: How a Nebraska-based office technoogy dealer Matrix is redefining how organizations manage print infrastructure.
Cruise entertainment | evolution of the guest experience
How cruises are dissolving boundaries between performance, dining and design to create fully immersive, all-day entertainment experiences
Coachella 2026: The 21 best moments from the fest's 25th-anniversary weekend
From Justin Bieber and his laptop to the high-production headlining sets from Sabrina Carpenter and Karol G and the best of everything in between at Coachella.
Sam Wang, Politician-in-Training
The neuroscientist went from analyzing elections to running for Congress. But can this rookie win over New Jersey locals—and Trump voters?
North Shore Health continues CNA training program with new sessions
North Shore Health is continuing its certified nursing assistant (CNA) training program this spring, with a session scheduled from late April through July and another planned for September. The program includes 75 hours of training and provides students with opportunities to work near the end of the course. Participants can have their training costs covered...
Hospitals roll out chatbots, looking to reclaim their role in patients' health conversations
A handful of hospitals are launching their own chatbots, a risky bet aimed at better serving current patients and gaining new ones.
Bayern planning second summer signing
After joining Bayern Munich on loan from Gambinos Stars Africa in January, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye finally made his debut for the German champions in their 5-0 win over FC St. Pauli on Saturday, coming off...
What to watch for in WPIAL sports for April 13, 2026: West A, Pine-Richland square off in section battle
It’s the midway point of the WPIAL baseball and softball seasons with three weeks of section play in the books and three weeks remaining.
The Science of Strength: New Study Casts Doubt on Training to Failure
New research shows going all out may limit strength gains. Here’s the smarter way to build strength and muscle
Sabres seeking two more wins, starting with Blackhawks Monday
With two games remaining in the regular season, the playoff-bound Buffalo Sabres can finish anywhere from first to third in a stacked Atlantic Division.
The Masters: Rory McIlroy wins back-to-back green jackets
Rory McIlroy becomes only the fourth golfer to win back-to-back Masters tournaments, joining Jack Nicklaus (1965-1966), Nick Faldo (1989-1990) and Tiger Woods (2001-2002).
Florida State freshman linebacker shining at spring practice
Florida State true freshman linebacker Karon Maycock has been putting on a show during spring practice.
Viktor Orbán’s defeat ‘a defining moment’ in Europe. What comes next?
Orbán acknowledged Sunday that he was too far behind to stage a comeback against Péter Magyar, Hungary’s new prime minister.
Arsenal target warned to avoid joining the Gunners
PSV star Ismael Saibari has long been linked with a move to Arsenal, and a transfer could materialise at the end of the current season. The Moroccan midfielder has established himself as one of the st...
UCLA Gets $33M Grant for Youth Mental Health Training
UCLA received $33 million from Ballmer Group to expand youth mental health workforce training in Los Angeles County, aiming to produce 2,600 new graduates by 2031.
Kings reportedly retaining Doug Christie as coach despite disappointing 2025-26 season
Christie replaced Mike Brown midway through the 2024-25 season
10 Vintage Plates That Are Worth a Small Fortune
Vintage dining ware from these 10 makers has become highly collectible, often selling for thousands. See which creators' pieces are most valuable today.
Perfect 360: Elliott spins to bring out late caution
Chase Elliott spins like a pro from 17th in Turn 2, bringing out a late caution with under 25 laps remaining at Bristol.
⚠️ Concern for Mbappé! Not training with the squad after eyebrow stitches
Real Madrid completed training this Sunday with an absence that raised alarm bells, although the club is conveying complete calm. According to several media outlets, Kylian Mbappé did not go out onto...
Pols & Politics: Romney, Patrick, Dukakis, Weld, and Healey to celebrate 20 years of MassHealth
A group of former Massachusetts governors will be joining Gov. Healey in Boston to celebrate 20 years of public health insurance as two of three GOP gubernatorial candidates gear up for a debate.
Business People
Ann Bordelon is joining the planned STEM university backed by members of the Walton family as vice president of finance and administration.
Boom Ball blends baseball, high-energy entertainment for night of family fun in Birmingham
The touring baseball show announced Friday that they’re brining their one-of-a-kind family entertainment to Regions Field.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
“As of January 2026… Drew Murray is now working on the StarCraft shooter” — this report could be the clearest sign yet that the project is moving forward
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What does American politics look like beyond Trump?
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City council to consider determining authority to bring entertainment district TIF to public vote
City council to consider determining authority to bring entertainment district TIF to public vote
Rural Mental Health Hub Offers Tools, Training, and Support
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Healthdaq: Recruitment platform used by health trusts targeted by cyber attackers
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Retro NYC video store marks booming first year in business – thanks to growing Gen-Z demand for VHS, DVDs
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Federal judge extends restraining order on $6.2B merger Nexstar and Tegna
Nexstar's attorneys say the deal will lead to expanded local journalism and programming, not a reduction
Federal judge extends restraining order on $6.2B merger Nexstar and Tegna
Nexstar's attorneys say the deal will lead to expanded local journalism and programming, not a reduction
Gallery: Atrium Health Motorsports Athletic Center Facility Photos
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Netflix's 'Thrash' is junk-food entertaining to roast, mock and enjoy
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OpenAI has quietly launched its ads manager as it races to build out its ads business
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Is ‘office air’ ruining your look at work? Science says it’s possible
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Penn researchers use AI to surface unreported GLP-1 side effects in Reddit posts
Could mining Reddit with AI help spot drug side effects earlier? A new Penn study suggests it might. Using large language models to map patient posts to standardized medical terms, researchers analyzed more than 400,000 Reddit posts about GLP-1s and found both known side effects and possibly underrecognized symptoms, like menstrual changes. The team says the approach could eventually help generate early safety signals for other drugs and wellness trends discussed online.