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SoFi enters small-business loan market
“For many of our members, their financial lives do not stop at personal goals, they also include the businesses they are building,” said SoFi CEO Anthony Noto.
How the Museum of Ice Cream and Other Companies Woo Visitors From Art Institutions
As arts institutions struggle to increase attendance, entertainment centers marketed as museums are wooing those who once might have gone to view art.
Waynesboro offers new grants for local businesses
Waynesboro is offering new grants to help local businesses improve storefronts and boost tourism marketing efforts.
Associated British Foods Sugar Unit Weighs on Business Ahead of Primark Spinoff
Associated British Foods backed its guidance across all businesses apart from its sugar unit which it said would post a loss as market conditions deteriorate.
Creators aren’t just in marketing’s entertainment era. They’re driving it
How creators became the talent behind marketing’s entertainment pivot. Cannes didn't so much reveal that shift as rubber-stamp it.
Samsung hits restart with a viral marketing campaign ahead of the Galaxy Z Fold 8, Flip 8
Social media accounts were wiped; now the clues roll in.
Microsoft to cut under 2.5% of workforce in latest layoffs, Business Insider reports
At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life.
Nearly 3 Million Fewer People Secured Marketplace Coverage After Republican Health Care Cuts, New Data Show
This is the largest drop in effectuated enrollment since the ACA marketplaces were established.
Politics: High Cost Of Healthcare And The Political Fallout
Americans are grappling with a rising cost in healthcare. For the first time in five years, fewer than half of Americans can consistently afford healthcare. That’s according to the latest data from Gallup. The cost of healthcare in the US remains higher than any other large, wealthy country. According to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, five million fewer people are enrolled in marketplace plans for 2026, compared to last year. That’s as average premium costs rose about 58%.With health care costs increasingly becoming a stress for Americans, voters are now making the issue a top priority at the ballot box. And it’s an issue that crosses party and geographic lines. According to new polling from The Century Foundation, 71% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 75% of rural voters agree that reigning in hospital costs should be a top priority for lawmakers. While new polling from Ipsos and Axios suggests that a majority of Americans say they’re more likely to vote for candidates in November who will lower their health costs.How will the issue of healthcare shape the midterms? And how are Americans grappling with the cost of their health?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
Politics: High Cost Of Healthcare And The Political Fallout
Americans are grappling with a rising cost in healthcare. For the first time in five years, fewer than half of Americans can consistently afford healthcare. That’s according to the latest data from Gallup. The cost of healthcare in the US remains higher than any other large, wealthy country. According to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, five million fewer people are enrolled in marketplace plans for 2026, compared to last year. That’s as average premium costs rose about 58%.With health care costs increasingly becoming a stress for Americans, voters are now making the issue a top priority at the ballot box. And it’s an issue that crosses party and geographic lines. According to new polling from The Century Foundation, 71% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 75% of rural voters agree that reigning in hospital costs should be a top priority for lawmakers. While new polling from Ipsos and Axios suggests that a majority of Americans say they’re more likely to vote for candidates in November who will lower their health costs.How will the issue of healthcare shape the midterms? And how are Americans grappling with the cost of their health?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
Initiatives To Bridge The Digital Divide For Small Business
Nourish + Bloom Market exemplifies the way small businesses can harness technology to address community needs, and how industry partners such as AT&T can support them.
July 2 Vallejo/Vacaville Arts-Entertainment Source: Activities
July 2: Benicia Farmers Market, 4 p.m., Downtown Benicia at First Street. July 2: Bunco Night, Vacaville Museum Guild, 5 p.m., 213 Buck Ave. To purchase tickets online, access Vacavillemuseum.org/events/. July 2: GVRD Bite Nite: 5…
Can the New Orleans office market rebound? New report says suburbs remain strong, city struggling
More than five years after the pandemic, New Orleans' office market remains fragile, though it is performing better than some other cities.
America at 250: Innovations That Transformed Business
Wharton faculty explore the American business innovations that transformed industries, reshaped markets, and changed the way the world works.
Exclusive: FDA allows ZYN to sell pouches on health benefits
The pouches can be marketed as less risky than cigarettes.
‘A place where everyone felt welcome,’ New KC business offers sensory-friendly play for kids with autism
Bubbles and Goo opened in Kansas City's River Market to offer sensory-friendly slime play for families affected by autism.
Orlando ranks No. 2 in US for freelancer business growth since 2019
Orlando ranks as the 2nd fastest-growing freelance market in the US, with significant growth in freelancer businesses since 2019.
The John Rogers Contrarian Playbook: How Envista, MSG Entertainment, and Smucker Stack Up for Retirement Investors
John Rogers built his fortune hunting unloved stocks that the market abandoned too soon, but three of his favorite contrarian bets look very different when filtered through the lens of retirement income and low volatility.
Denmark’s New Government – Initiatives on Business and the Labor Market
After 70 days of negotiations, four parties presented the agenda for Denmark’s new government on June 2, 2026. The four parties are the Social Democrats, the Socialist People’s Party, the Social Liberal Party, and the Moderates. The government is anchored in the center‑left.
Pilates Isn't Just a Workout Anymore. It's Becoming a Business Strategy.
Pilates has become the new marketing infrastructure, giving brands a trusted way to reach customers through shared experiences.
Padel is Austin's trendy new racquet sport
Austin is emerging as one of the country's biggest markets for padel.
Nation’s largest industrial landlord bets $100M on Chicago warehouse demand
The project is a show of confidence by one of the biggest industrial property companies that the Chicago-area warehouse market has pent-up demand.
Klick Health Acquires Oxford PharmaGenesis, Bringing Together Unsurpassed Scientific-to-Commercial Capabilities for Life Sciences Clients
Focused on taking life sciences companies into the future, Klick Health today announced its acquisition of Oxford PharmaGenesis, the market-leading HealthSci...
FDA staff recommendation undercuts RFK Jr.’s push to expand peptides
The chains of amino acids are increasingly marketed for antiaging and health benefits. However, medical experts say many of those claims have not yet been fully tested.
Iran’s leverage over Strait of Hormuz snarls Trump’s push for a deal
Washington and Tehran are back at the negotiating table after a fragile ceasefire. But experts remain skeptical the two sides are close to a nuclear deal, even as calm oil markets reduce pressure to reach one.
Oil markets move from fearing shortages to worrying about surpluses
Global oil supply recovery eases shortage fears as Brent crude falls to $73. Wall Street is lowering forecasts amid demand concerns.
Chatbots Are Replacing Therapists With Little Scientific Evidence Behind Them
Over 100 chatbots are marketed as mental-health-focused, but experts warn they shouldn’t take the place of therapy.
AMC Entertainment (AMC) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know
In the most recent trading session, AMC Entertainment (AMC) closed at $2.03, indicating a -6.02% shift from the previous trading day.
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
The Most Important Business Lesson From Cannes Had Nothing to Do With Advertising
The world's biggest advertising festival just made the case that creative thinking belongs in the boardroom, not just the campaign brief.
Rocket Lab expands satellite business with Iridium deal
Yahoo Finance Senior Autos Reporter Pras Subramanian joins Market Domination to discuss Rocket Labs' (RKLB) deal to purchase Iridium Communications (IRDM), how the deal expands its satellite capabilities, and whether it strengthens the company's position against SpaceX (SPCX).
How fear of a market meltdown may have quietly shaped the Supreme Court’s ruling to protect Fed independence
Unredacted comments from California hospital lawsuits show stunning admissions and a 'forced' McKinsey collaboration
Who controls the Medicaid market, GLP-1 usage and pizza household costs, and more from Health Care Inc.
Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ:PLAY) Earns Market Perform Rating from Analysts at Citizens Jmp
Citizens Jmp began coverage on Dave & Buster's Entertainment in a report on Monday. They set a "market perform" rating for the company.
Ad Performance And Politics Steered Brand Dollars Away From LGBTQ+ Communities – But The Pendulum Will Swing Back
The current administration discouraged many brands and organizations from supporting and marketing to the LGBTQ+ community, including in June
Laser weapons aren’t science fiction anymore — and they’re changing how defense stocks are valued
Why Palantir and Elbit are top plays in the booming counter-drone market.
UK Political Angst Turned Foreigners Into Gilt Sellers in May
Foreign investors, long an anchor for the UK government bond market, turned net sellers of gilts in May as climbing yields failed to offset concern about the country’s political turbulence.
Potential Xbox Series X|S owners: You should probably upgrade this July
With warnings of further price hikes coming for the video game console market, potential Xbox Series X|S owners might want to upgrade in July 2026.
Insider Sale: CEO of Business Group of $BABA Sells 13,579 Shares
Fan (FJ) Jiang, the CEO of Business Group of $BABA, sold 13,579 shares of the company on 06-25-2026 for an estimated $164,305. We received data on the trade from a recent SEC filing. This was a sale of approximately 2.4% of their shares of this class of stock. Following this trade, they now own 556,617 shares of this class of $BABA stock.$BABA Insider Trading Activity$BABA insiders have traded $BABA stock on the open market 7 times in the past 6
SG Americas Securities LLC Sells 866,473 Shares of Caesars Entertainment, Inc. $CZR
SG Americas Securities LLC trimmed its position in shares of Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:CZR - Free Report) by 78.9% during the 1st quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 231,290 shares of the company's stock after
It’s Linux, On A Sega Megadrive
If you were in the market for a games console in 1990, the chances are that the object of your desire was either a Super Nintendo with its 16-bit 6502 derivative, or the Sega Megadrive, sold as the…
Ingredion plans global Benicaros prebiotic expansion across gut and immune health applications
Ingredion highlights that its recent acquisition of the Benicaros prebiotic is a strong strategic addition to its Healthful Solutions portfolio, supporting the company’s formulation versatility alongside expansion of health-forward and clean label ingredients. The company purchased the patented prebiotic fiber, made from upcycled carrot pomace, from NutriLeads earlier this month. With the deal, Ingredion obtained full ownership of all intellectual property, trademarks, human clinical trials, and know-how related to manufacturing Benicaros.
Grand Theft Auto VI Rumored to Offer 60 FPS Mode on PS5/Xbox Series X, But Maybe Not at Launch
One of the reasons Grand Theft Auto VI fans are eager to learn the currently missing details on PS5 Pro enhancements is that the most powerful console available on the market is expected to include a performance mode targeting 60 FPS. However, according to a credible source, there's a decent chance that even the base PlayStation 5 and Microsoft's roughly equivalent Xbox Series X will support 60 FPS in Rockstar's massively anticipated game. The rumor comes from the popular Polish gaming podcast Rock and Borys, which features Remigiusz "Rock" Maciaszek and Borys Nieśpielak. It is the latter who shared in […]
Colorado’s regulations should address policy challenges only as truly needed
As Colorado approaches its 150th birthday, we should remember its first 100 years were characterized by repeated boom-and-bust economic cycles. Dependence on mineral extraction and agricultural commodity prices was subject to the volatility of these markets. In 1972, as I arrived in Denver with Ma Bell, 40,000 metro households were waiting for dial tone since […]
BUSINESS MONDAY: Spotlight on The Mossy Cauldron in Great Barrington
A little over a decade after launching her candles at the GB farmers market, the owner has come "full circle" by opening a brick-and-mortar retail location downtown.
Life Science Reagent Market Forecast Points Higher Toward 2035, Driven by Biopharma Scale-Up and Cell Therapy Expansion
World life science reagent market forecast 2026-2035: CAGR 6-8%, index 2035=185. Bioprocessing, cell therapy, and QC drive growth. Key players: Thermo Fisher, Merck, Danaher.
Flutter Entertainment plc(NYSE: FLUT) dropped from Russell 3000 Growth Benchmark
Flutter Entertainment plc dropped from Russell 3000 Growth Benchmark...
I'm a stay-at-home mom of 2. My 4 side gigs help me pay off debt.
Lana Ng left her marketing job in 2023 to take care of her children. Now, her four side gigs help her not lose herself in motherhood.
Philippe Stern, Heir to the Patek Philippe Watch Brand, Dies at 88
In an era of electronic timepieces, he marketed $40,000 handmade watches as status symbols, breathing new life into a struggling industry.
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
The most recent move in the ongoing legal battle between the state and prediction market operators came after the state enacted new sports wagering taxes to support the $55.9 billion budget it passed this spring.
Bob on Business: Fort Worth Stockyards auction barn seeing new life as studio, live venue
Also, more Stockyards-area property on the market; area CEO honored; pawnshop deal; and another acquisition.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Cavs Reportedly Trending Towards Losing Dean Wade in Free Agency
Wade is set to draw significant interest on the open market The post Cavs Reportedly Trending Towards Losing Dean Wade in Free Agency appeared first on HEAVY.
Amazon seller reveals rare glimpse of shadow bribery market
An international black market has been a persistent scourge of Amazon's online store.
Pharr grocery store to close after nearly 100 years in business
After nearly 100 years in business, the historic M Rivas Supermarket in Pharr is closing its doors, marking the end of a multi-generational Rio Grande Valley legacy.
This Week’s Small Business Tech News: Apple Significantly Raises Their Prices
AI is reshaping small business IT, customer service and marketing. Learn why Microsoft agents, Apple price hikes and AI influencers matter to your business.
Dispatch reporter Emma Wozniak covers real estate development, business
From lawsuits to high-rises to market trends, here's how Emma Wozniak covers real estate and business news in Columbus.
UNC, NC State to get millions from sports betting; gambling deductions allowed in budget proposal
Not only would the tax on sports betting operators rise to 23%, but North Carolina would levy taxes on prediction market operators as well under proposals expected to be included in the state budget.
4 Marketing Lessons Every Business Can Learn From the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Nike, Adidas, Home Depot, and FIFA itself offer a powerful reminder: marketing success depends on far more than how much you spend.
Maryland health insurance rates could rise 13.7% in 2027 under proposal
BALTIMORE — Maryland residents who buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace could see higher premiums next year, with insurers requesting an average rate increase of 13.7% for
SG Americas Securities LLC Has $8.39 Million Holdings in Flutter Entertainment PLC $FLUT
SG Americas Securities LLC lessened its holdings in Flutter Entertainment PLC (NYSE:FLUT - Free Report) by 85.8% during the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 82,269 shares of the company's stock a
Border to Coast Pensions Partnership Ltd Takes Position in Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. $LYV
Border to Coast Pensions Partnership Ltd purchased a new position in Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:LYV - Free Report) during the 1st quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm purchased 172,269 shares of the company's st
Assenagon Asset Management S.A. Decreases Stock Holdings in Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. $LYV
Assenagon Asset Management S.A. lessened its stake in Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:LYV - Free Report) by 77.4% in the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The fund owned 74,497 shares of the company's stock after selling 254,802 shares duri
38,599 Shares in Caesars Entertainment, Inc. $CZR Bought by 1492 Capital Management LLC
1492 Capital Management LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:CZR - Free Report) during the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The institutional investor purchased 38,599 shares o
Bernstein Says Life Science Sector is Improving, Resumes Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) Coverage
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) is included among Billionaire Steven Cohen’s Top 11 Dividend Stock Picks. On June 26, Bernstein resumed coverage of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) with a Market Perform rating. It also set a $520 price target after the analyst returned from maternity leave. In a research note, the firm said “Many […]
Hurricanes Acquire Rights To Top Offensive Blueliner John Carlson
Carolina secures exclusive negotiating rights with the veteran power-play specialist as they look to bolster their defensive core before the free agency market opens.
Community Market Series creates space to support small business
A new market in Boardman is hoping to bring the community together to help support small, local businesses.
Burcum: Sanford Health got what it wanted. Now comes the moment of truth.
From columnist Jill Burcum: The South Dakota health system has spent a decade trying to crack the Twin Cities health care market. With the North Memorial deal, it now has a chance to prove itself.
Is 10,000 Steps a Day Actually Based on Science? Here's What the Research Says
The 10,000 steps target came from a 1960s Japanese marketing campaign, not clinical research. Here's what the evidence actually supports about daily step counts, mortality risk, and what a realistic goal looks like for most people.
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
Prediction market Kalshi — which offers trades on everything from the World Cup top goalscorers to the winners of the reality show Love Island and the 2028 Democratic primary — sued Illinois on Tuesday over its latest push to regulate sports bets on the platform.
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
Prediction market Kalshi sued Illinois on Tuesday, seeking to block new taxes and license requirements set to take effect July 1.
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
Suit seeks to block new taxes and licensing requirements set for July 1
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
Article Summary Prediction market Kalshi sued Illinois on Tuesday, seeking to block new taxes and license requirements set to take
Colonial Market owner closes south Minneapolis location due to sharp drop in business following Metro Surge
Colonial Market owner Daniel Hernandez has closed the chain’s south Minneapolis location, which he said never recovered after the store’s employees and customers were targeted during Operation Metro Surge.
ON Semi tanks 20% following Synaptics deal as CEO defends core business
The pivot into physical AI grows On Semi's addressable market by an additional $30 billion, the company said.
Is AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Undervalued Or Is Its Recent Rally Already Priced In?
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) is under renewed scrutiny as investors weigh its recent share price swings and ongoing losses against reported revenue of $5,031.8 million and a market value of about $1.5 billion. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. At a share price of $1.89, AMC Entertainment Holdings has seen sharp swings, with a 7 day share price return down 33.22% but a 90 day share price return up 99.33%. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 37.42%, indicating...
Weather drives cowherd size, not broken markets
Data shows weather, not broken markets, drives cowherd decisions. Producers cite grazing concerns and drought as top barriers to expansion.
Outdoor recreation study highlights economic challenges for Wyoming businesses
The report represents the first comprehensive study of the state’s outdoor recreation economy. Businesses ranked hiring, climate and marketing as top concerns.
Real Madrid’s summer spending spree creates unexpected Champions League problem
Real Madrid have been one of the busiest clubs in the transfer market, but their impressive recruitment spree may have created a technical issue.Notably, Jose Mourinho has already welcomed four new si...
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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David P. O'Brien
About five years ago, David P. O'Brien had a comfortable position at Marsh & McLennan Cos., where he held the top post at the financial giant's Louisville, Ky., office. Despite the lofty rank, Mr. O'Brien found himself longing to be at a smaller company that had to work a little harder to land business. That desire led him away from Kentucky five years ago and to Cleveland, where he serves as executive vice president at business insurance agency Oswald Cos. "I left Marsh before it was en vogue," he said, referring to layoffs and defections at Marsh over the course of this year that followed accusations of bid rigging at the big firm. Above all, Mr. O'Brien, 38, wanted to work at a company that relied on its inventiveness, rather than its name, for business. He said he has found that at Oswald. "It causes you to be more creative, to be more resourceful," Mr. O'Brien said. For instance, an Oswald client seeking to do business internationally might be directed to the network of offices abroad run by competitors such as Marsh and Aon Risk Services Inc. "We're going to use whatever access into the market that makes the most sense for our clients," he said. Of course, using such a strategy can be dangerous for Oswald if its client decides to further a business relationship with one of the firms Oswald recommended. "That's the obvious question and why it's nontraditional," he said. "I think if we're good, and if we're bringing value to the client, then there's no risk. I'm not threatened by it." Imaginative business solutions of that type made his career move to Oswald from Marsh worthwhile. "It's very much a challenge," he said. "It helps you keep your edge. I'm all for the competition." John Jacunski, currently vice president and corporate controller at York, Pa., paper company PH Gladfelter Co., met Mr. O'Brien four years ago when Mr. Jacunski was at WCI Steel Inc. in Warren. So impressed was he with Mr. O'Brien's work for WCI that Mr. Jacunski has retained the Oswald executive at PH Gladfelter. "He's a young guy for the position he has, but he's done a great job for us," Mr. Jacunski said. Among his roles at Oswald, Mr. O'Brien leads the firm's client retention efforts and also serves as director of its property and casualty group. "You don't have the same human resources," he said of the job jump to Oswald. "You don't have, obviously, the safety net a big company has." But sometimes, it can be difficult to ascertain individual contributions when working at a big company. "I wanted to be able to see the end results of my work and my efforts," Mr. O'Brien said.
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