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SPECIAL REPORT: Tough Business
A string of vacant restaurant buildings shows that many restaurants in the region are struggling — and several are closing By Stefan Yablonski [caption id=attachment_11132 align=alignright width=401] Smokey Bones Bar & Fire Grill on Route 31 in Clay closed its doors in April. It had been in operation since at least 2008.[/caption] By their nature, most restaurants have a limited life. An astonishing 60% go out of business within three years of opening, largely due to fundamental flaws in the planning of the operation. But even restaurants that experience years of success almost always face eventual closure. The restaurant business is very hard and because of both personal factors and external factors beyond anyone’s control, restaurants don’t last forever. For many restaurants, age is a big factor, according to Kenneth Walsleben, professor of practice, entrepreneurship and emerging enterprises at Syracuse University. “The owners have been at it for 20 or 25 years, if not longer, they want some time to themselves,” he said. Such was the case for Jocko’s Famous Ritz Diner in Oswego. Jocko Reitz bought the building in the late 1970s from Robert Shapiro. However, when he stepped away from the business, it eventually closed. [caption id=attachment_11142 align=alignright width=402] For nearly 80 years, Vona’s Restaurant passed through three generations of family in Oswego. It closed its doors on Dec. 31, 2025.[/caption] For nearly 80 years, Vona’s passed through three generations of family in Oswego. Vona’s Restaurant officially closed its doors on Dec. 31, 2025, when no family member wanted to take over. It is on the market. The Ruby Tuesday in Oswego operated for about two decades before permanently closing in April 2026. The restaurant faced multiple temporary health department closures in 2024 and 2025 due to persistent fruit fly and foundation pest issues. Management posted a final closure notice on the doors in mid-April 2026 and the building was put up for sale. The same pattern has been happening in Onondaga County. The big building once used by Smokey Bones Bar & Fire Grill on Route 31 in Clay remains empty, more than six months after the restaurant closed its doors in April. It had been in operation since at least 2008. [caption id=attachment_11130 align=alignright width=401] Ruby Tuesday in Oswego operated for about two decades before permanently closing in April 2026.[/caption] Just down the road from Smokey Bones, the popular Outback Steakhouse closed in August 2024. Another restaurant took its place, La Cocina Mexican Restaurant, but it closed shortly after. The building sits empty. Other very popular restaurants in the northern suburbs of Syracuse have recently closed. Among them, Fireside by the River in Baldwinsville and Primo Nestico’s Bistro Bar in North Syracuse. “I haven’t really paid attention to the Syracuse area. There has always been some turnover, but there probably has never been a tougher time to be a restauranter than now. It’s just brutal,” Walsleben said. In the first year, roughly 20% to 25% of restaurants close or change hands, according to the National Restaurant Association. [caption id=attachment_11122 align=alignright width=401] Outback Steakhouse closed in August 2024. Another restaurant took its place, La Cocina Mexican Restaurant, but it closed shortly after. The building sits empty.[/caption] “Depending on what statistics you look at, you’ll find that any business has a high mortality rate in the first year. That is just the nature of entrepreneurship,” Walsleben said. “There are certain ones that are getting hit hard while others are more fruitful. “And when you look at the restaurant industry you have to factor in labor which is a large part — typically a third of your expenses — and those costs are going up. And there is always turnover which means investing money to train people. Then you’ve got food costs, which is also a third of the typical restaurant budget. Since the pandemic labor has gone up 41%, food costs have gone up 35%. That’s a big tight squeeze righty there. That’s two-thirds of your budget that has gone up 35% to 40% in the last few years. And then the only way you can make that work is to raise the prices.” The National Restaurant Association reports menu prices are up 36% since February of 2020. In a survey released by the association, more than eight in 10 restaurant owners reported that their food, beverage and labor costs are now higher than before the pandemic. You have to deal with the reality of are the customers willing to pay for that? Walsleben added. Restaurants historically have very thin margins; their profit margin is about 5%. “You have a third that goes into food, a third that goes into labor and about 28%, 29% that goes into everything else — overhead, insurance etc. So that brings you down to your 5% leftover,” he said. “Everything is going up. Customer expectations are going up and people aren’t going to spend that much more. So, you have a tight squeeze here,” Walsleben continued. “Restaurants who use delivery apps, they pay a fee to those guys. Those guys don’t work for free. So, you can kind of see where the squeeze comes from.” Stuck in the middle There are pockets of opportunity; the two extremes of the market can make a profit. But the middle gets squeezed out. “If you are a low-end fast-food kind of place, there is room for that. People have changed their budgets. They are still going out, but they are not spending more,” according to Walsleben. “The high end remains positive. If you have a restaurant that brings a specific experience … a great food product or you are catering to high end customers who aren’t so budget conscious, those patrons are going to expect a high-end experience. They expect excellent food every time. They are expecting excellent service. If you can meet those expectations there is room for you at the top. It’s just the guys in the middle are getting the squeeze from both ends. Tough competition, customer expectations, costs are up. Menu items, you can’t raise the prices as much as you need to. That is why you are seeing a lot of restaurants baling out.” The ones that can adapt quickly are the ones who are doing OK. “Success is heavily dependent on the strength of a restaurant’s concept development and the planning of its execution. Eventually things aren’t always new. Things change. So, if you are in the restaurant business you have got to change your menu — keep things new, fresh and update your meals. It is very fickle industry. One year carbs are out, the next year berries are out. Everybody’s diet changes — constantly chasing the latest phase. You have got to adjust your menu and move with those modifications. If you have a static menu that you have used the last couple years that hasn’t changed except for the pricing, you’ve got a problem,” he said. A lot of times these buildings are singular purpose, he added. “You have a commercially viable kitchen and you got a seating area. There is not a lot of other businesses that cater to that type of a layout. So, it’s pretty common to see another restaurant slide in,” he said. One of the things a banker learns early on is you don’t lend money to restaurants … because they fail so quickly. It is very hard to predict who the winners will be. So, if you are a restaurant in addition to all the other challenges, it is very difficult to get loans, according to Walsleben. “You might work really well in the kitchen. But that doesn’t mean you are a great businessperson,” he said. “Restaurants can fail because the owner didn’t know how to manage things properly. There are a lot of challenges. “There is opportunity at the high end and the low end. But in the middle, that’s the death valley. There are just so many things working against you. You really need to have something that will pull people in and continue to pull people in because you to constantly have to change. Think about a theme and a product that is unique to the area people don’t travel that far these days you have to be able to deliver it in an innovative fashion and keep updating to keep people coming in the door.” Out of Business? How Fast? Do nine out of 10 restaurants fail in their first year, as commonly claimed? No. Survival analysis of 1.9 million longitudinal microdata for 81,000 full-service restaurants in a 20-year U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics non public census of business establishments in the western US shows that only 17% of independently owned full-service restaurant startups failed in their first year, compared with 19% for all other service-providing startups, according to ResearchGate. The median lifespan of restaurants is about 4.5 years, slightly longer than that of other service businesses (4.25 years). However, the median lifespan of a restaurant startup with 5 or fewer employees is 3.75 years, slightly shorter than that of other service businesses of the same startup size (4.0 years). What Makes a Restaurant Successful? Opening and maintaining a successful restaurant is not as easy as creating a great menu and serving excellent food. It takes more than that, according to local restaurant owners who have been in business for decades in the region. They all agree that there are some guidelines to running a successful restaurant. • Quality food: Successful restaurants know exactly what they serve and who they serve it to. Delivering the same great taste every single time builds loyal customers. • Smooth operations: Friendly greetings and attentive staff make guests feel welcome from the moment they walk in. Hiring staff for personality and training for skill ensures reliable, caring service. • Smart marketing: Exceptional food and experiences naturally get people talking and sharing online. Word of mouth can help entice customers. Consistent social media and targeted advertising brings in new and repeat guests also. The menu is what keeps patrons coming back to Mimi’s Diner in Fulton, located at 201 N. Second St. “We locally source our produce and our meats. Our chicken and biscuits is a popular, popular special,” said Richard Tagliareni, the third-generation owner and general manager. “It’s all homemade. We have consistently served quality food.” His grandfather started the business more than 55 years ago. Mimi’s is engrained in the community. They cater to the community and are very involved in everything from the schools to local events. The first Mimi’s Drive-In opened in Mexico. Then a second in Oswego and then Fulton. Fulton’s Mimi’s is the only one left. “The last couple of weeks have been kind of slower than normal. October is usually a busier month for us People will start coming back around again. Also, the price of gas is affecting some things,” Tagliareni added. “We try to keep our prices in line. You go out to eat, you’re going to spend about a hundred bucks or so for two people for dinner. You come here to Mimi’s you are probably for two people for dinner it’s between $50 and $60. We are trying to keep our prices in line. We did have to increase our prices a little bit but things are looking OK.” For the Press Box, 29 E. First St., Oswego, it’s also about great food and a family atmosphere. “Our sports bar and restaurant was established in 1984,” said Alison Canale Scanlon, manager. “I think putting the time into everything makes a big difference and treating people like family when they walk into your restaurant. That’s how we have always operated since 1984.” “It’s the family oriented aspect,” she added. “Consistency, quality and presentation of our food — that’s the secret to a successful restaurant. We try to be very consistent with it. We treat people like family when they come in; because we know how we want to be treated when we go to a restaurant. We treat people the same or better.”
Finding Renée Richards: the complicated past and present of a trans sports pioneer
A new book explores the story of the tennis player who sued to play in the US Open after transitioning and, fifty years later, supports bans on trans athletes
Politics Chat, October 13, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
UCF Baseball Only Playing Road Exhibition Games
To conquer the Big 12, Coach Rich Wallace is forcing the Knights out of their comfort zone with a travel-heavy fall slate designed to fix road woes.
Famous And Innovative Duke Nukem, Quake Level Designer 'Levelord' Has Died
News of Richard Gray's death was shared online by his wife
Opinion: How Illinois’ treasurer is using public money to spur new housing
Michael Frerichs' office might not be the first that comes to mind on housing, but he says he's trying to go beyond the traditional mold.
Puri-T Welding & Fabrication
Puri-T Welding & Fabrication’s new 13,000-square-foot facility at 2622 Henderson Loop in Richland was completed Sept. 15.
“Big Brother” producers weigh in on if icons had unfair advantages in game
Rich Meehan and Allison Grodner address what players and fans alike have been debating.
This Economist Studied Millions of Business Owners. He Uncovered the Surprising Way Everyday Americans Actually Get Wealthy
Owen Zidar, co-author of the book founders can’t stop talking about, "The Everywhere Millionaire," sat down with Inc. to mine the largest-ever dataset on entrepreneurs.
Liverpool must learn from Richard Hughes' mistakes
Although he only spent two full seasons at Liverpool, Richard Hughes oversaw some of the most historic moments in the club’s history. In the five transfer windows in which Hughes headed the recruit...
'We don't do business with Russia' - Heinrich denounces Trump's Russian diesel deal
U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich is denouncing President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. will purchase diesel from Russia in an effort to lower fuel prices.
$20 million gift kickstarts Dartmouth Health’s home healthcare program
Richard Levy ’60 will donate $20 million in installments at his discretion and tied to expansion milestones over the multi-year rollout of Dartmouth Health at Home.
Jase Richardson Reflects on Orlando Magic's 'Sloppy' Preseason Loss
Orlando’s sloppy turnover troubles and Paolo Banchero’s shooting slump fueled a double-digit loss, prompting Jase Richardson to demand more physicality and poise before the regular season begins.
Heinrich eyes New Mexico jobs in bi-partisan permitting reform push
By Pat Davis, New Mexico Political Report — For most government workers and union members, Columbus Day or Indigenous Peoples’ Day is the Monday cap to a three-day weekend. But that is not true for the U.S. Senate staff and local building trades members working to keep up with Sen. Martin Heinrich’s push to pass […]
Ted Lasso, AFC Richmond Women Featured in EA FC 27, Check Out Preview Photos
Barbecue sauce.
Americhem Opens New Clean Compounding Facility in Suzhou, China
SUZHOU, China--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct 12, 2026--
Germany Politics
German chancellor Friedrich Merz briefs the media during a press conference at the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) headquarters in Berlin, Germany, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
From Data Rich to Decision Ready in Life Sciences
Life sciences organizations have invested heavily in data and analytics, yet timely decision making remains a challenge. | Within3 leaders discuss why ownership, insight sharing and human judgment are critical to faster decisions.
Augusta-area restaurants with best and worst health inspection scores
The following is a list of restaurants in Richmond and Columbia counties that were inspected Oct. 2-9, accompanied by their scores and, in some cases, the health infractions that lowered those scores. Scores below 70 are considered failing.
Inside Elon Musk’s $276 Million Midterm Rescue Mission for Republicans
The world’s richest person has quietly become by far the biggest known midterm donor, trying to save Republicans’ Senate majority with some of the largest donations in American political history.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal likely to seek 4th Senate term in 2028: Haar
"Voters want the most energetic, passionate and effective person ... regardless of age. I am that person," Blumenthal said.
Coravin Symposium gives sommeliers the business advice they need
Business events in the wine industry are thin on the ground, so when Coravin announced it was to host a day dedicated to providing commercial insights and support for sommeliers the expectations were high. Thankfully those hopes were well and truly met at a highly successful inaugural event held at London’s Savoy Hotel last week. The Buyer’s Richard Siddle was there to not only analyse what was said, but helped chair the opening session on how data is now central to how wine lists are being pulled together - which was typical of the commercially focused issues covered during this much needed and well received day. Here he shares his key takeaways from what will hopefully become an annual fixture in any leading sommelier’s diary.
Montclair Remembers Bruce Tyler: Musician, Arts Advocate, and Keeper of Jazz Legacy
Montclair remembers musician and arts advocate Bruce Tyler, whose legacy of generosity and dedication led to preserving jazz history and enriched the community.
The overlooked businesses making Americans rich
The overlooked businesses making Americans rich
Germany's Left Party sues opponents over antisemitism allegations: Are lawsuits a political weapon?
The Left Party is suing two government ministers for accusing them of antisemitism, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz has been sued several times by various parties. Is German politics descending into "lawfare?"
Brave, Brave, Brave, Brave Sir Richard
If I were an atheist, I would feel pretty discouraged about now by the New Atheist icon.
Memorial Health urges flu vaccinations ahead of peak season
Richie said getting vaccinated can help protect both the individual and those around them.
Envy on the ballot
GAWD, I hate the rich. The top hats. The monocles. The dinner jackets. The way they twirl their mustaches while evicting orphans. Before we drag them into the public square, though, we should probably define “rich.” Amendment 87, the temporary “graduated” income tax, defines rich as earning $500,000 a year. And yes, it is temporary. […]
Backlash to Trump, RFK Jr. has scientists seeking office
Anti-vaxxers and attacks on the nation's public health system have spurred hundreds of doctors and scientists to seek office. In Sacramento, congressional hopeful Richard Pan is part of that wave.
China’s rich coastal cities to see sea-level rise 20% higher than global average
Even if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, scientists warn China’s densely populated coastline faces flooding this century.
Leam Richardson ‘Really Proud’ Of Reading’s Excellent MK Dons Win
The gaffer was a happy man after the Royals ran riot at Stadium MK.
Wellcome Global Monitor 2026: Trust in science under pressure
The Wellcome Global Monitor is the world's largest study of how people think and feel about science and health. The 2026 edition draws on surveys of more than 140,000 people in 140 countries, making it a uniquely rich and globally comparable data set on public trust in science.
Film Review: 'Ray Gunn' is a Visually Rich and Surprisingly Effective Science Fiction Neo Noir from Brad Bird
Awards Radar seeks to provide objective, thoughtful, and wide-ranging coverage of the awards season, as well as the entertainment world in general
Padres Catching Shift Could Clear A Path For A Trade
The San Diego Padres made some changes in their catching situation, and they now have an abundance of riches there.
Hourigan promotes new construction, Central Virginia leaders
Richmond-based Hourigan promotes Michael Henley to president of construction and Mark Hourigan Jr. to vice president of Central Virginia unit.
Poll: Young voters think there is too much money in politics
A new poll out this morning reveals young American voters from all political backgrounds think there is too much money in politics. They also believe rich people and wealthy organizations have more influence on members of Congress than the individuals who vote for them. MS NOW contributor, author and pollster John Della Volpe joins Morning Joe to discuss the findings — along with Jeff Clements, the CEO of American Promise, a nonpartisan group focused on reducing the influence of money in politics, which commissioned the poll.
Country music’s richest singer: You might be surprised by who leads with $1 billion
Dolly Parton was near the top of the list, but she wasn't number-one.
Richland County mental health board taps new executive director
Richland County's public mental health and addiction recovery services will soon have a new leader, with Aubrie Hall taking over as executive director of the Richland County Mental Health and Recovery Services Board on Nov. 2.
Kyle Richards’ daughter Alexia reveals on “Special Forces ”she was ‘taken advantage of by a friend’
The “Real Housewives of Beverly Hills” star shared that neither of her parents know about the experience.
Apple Music Is About To Sound Very Different On Your Apple TV
Apple is offering high-resolution lossless sound, which can provide even richer tracks for TVs and speakers capable of playing them.
Two Orlando Magic Rookies Looking to Take Major Leap
After forging a bond through rookie adversity, Jase Richardson and Noah Penda embrace a competitive offseason to transform into consistent, two-way anchors for Orlando’s emerging rotation.
‘Crazy Rich Asians’ returning for HBO sequel series with original stars
‘Crazy Rich Asians’ is finally back, with four of the original movie’s stars returning for a sequel series.
Andrich Vows To Fight For His Leverkusen Place
After losing his armband and starting role under Carles Martínez, the German midfielder rejects transfer rumors to battle for his place in a new-look Leverkusen hierarchy.
'Move away' and 'stop that!' Wild elephants use a rich gestural repertoire intentionally to 'mean business'
Wild African savanna elephants use a wide range of gestures when competing with other elephants, according to research from an international group of scientists, including researchers from the University ...
Patagonia's Sneaky Fall Sale Is an Embarrassment of Cozy Riches
You've never needed a better excuse to grab another fleece jacket.
Yankees Birthday of the Day: Ping Bodie
From an eating contest with an ostrich to rooming with Babe Ruth, Ping Bodie did it all while playing ball.
Glen Powell Is Under Fire For This "Mind-Numbingly Stupid" Political Comment
"aka 'I'm a rich white man in America and I don't have to worry about anything because I'm rich and white'"
Why Fermented Foods Are Important for Maintaining a Healthy Gut
Maintaining a healthy gut is a vital way to lower risks of illnesses like heart disease and dementia. Gastrointestinal health expert Dr. Trisha Pasricha joins the 3rd Hour of TODAY to share tips to improve gut health, including eating more fiber, diversifying fruits and vegetables in meals, and introducing fermented foods into your diet.
Immigrant Entrepreneurs Summit announces 2026 national summit
The 19th annual National Immigrant and Entrepreneurs Summit will be held Nov. 21 at the FFA Enrichment Center in Ankeny. One of the largest gatherings of immigrant entrepreneurs in the Midwest, the summit will welcome hundreds of business owners, aspiring entrepreneurs, corporate partners and community leaders. The summit features 21 breakout workshops, an exhibitor hall,…
News and notes from Iowa Startup Week
Last week’s Iowa Startup Week event featured a packed four days of keynotes, panels, and networking opportunities, all aiming to spotlight and celebrate entrepreneurship in Iowa. The Business Record attended several sessions and gathered reactions from attendees. Here are snapshots of what we heard. Iowa is an ‘incredibly rich community’ to help startups Joseph Nelson, co-founder…
7 US multimillionaire donors gave $189 million to universities in 2026, far more than Africa’s 23 billionaires publicly gave to science and research
Africa’s universities and research institutions continue to operate with far less funding than those in developed economies, even as several of the continent’s richest individuals have added billions of dollars to their fortunes in 2026
Hay Festival Dallas expands with books, music, politics
Hay Festival Dallas returns Oct. 15-18 at Wild Detectives and Texas Theatre. Participants include Bun B, Nikole Hannah-Jones and Richard Ford.
Beloved Belleville gardening business to close after 21 years
After more than two decades helping customers make their yards more beautiful, Sandy’s Back Porch Gardens in Belleville is set to close its doors early next month. “I keep telling people that there are mountains to climb, hills to roam and rivers to raft, and I want to do all those things,” owner Sandy Richter said.
Push to increase access in N.Y. to mental health treatments
The announcement is in the wake of President Donald Trump’s April 2026 executive order accelerating medical treatments for serious mental illness.
Virginia’s two biggest craft beer brewers to merge
Richmond's Hardywood Park Craft Brewery has purchased Starr Hill Brewery, based in Crozet, in an all-equity acquisition. Richmond's Hardywood Park Craft Brewery has purchased Starr Hill Brewery, based in Crozet, in an all-equity acquisition.
Toby Emmerich Joins FilmNation Entertainment's Infrared As Consultant
Former Warner Bros Motion Picture Chief Toby Emmerich is boarding FilmNation Entertainment's Infrared as a consultant.
AI behaves more like a brain than a database – cognitive science’s role in its origin story helps explain why
This article by Michael Hout, New Mexico State University, and Arryn Robbins, University of Richmond, first appeared in The Conversation, republished with permission.
I On Politics
ITALIAN HERITAGE CELEBRATION: On Thursday, October 8, 6-8:00 pm, Borough President Donovan Richards Jr. will host an Italian Heritage Celebration at the Helen Marshall Cultural Center at Queens Borough Hall, 120-55 Queens Blvd. For more information and to RSVP: www.queensbp.nyc.gov/ COMMUNITY BOARD 6 MEETING NOTICE: Community Board 6 will meet on Wednesday, October 14,
Mike Flanagan’s Carrie Isn’t Just Another Useless Adaptation
The horror auteur enriches Stephen King’s novel with updated settings and timeless horror.
Roger Marshall's photo flub is part of a rich tradition in KS/MO politics
Campaign season is a bountiful time for misleading and doctored political photos in Kansas and Missouri. From David Hudnall:
Why are out-of-state billionaires funding a California voter ID measure?
Packaging magnate and Illinois businessman Richard Uhilein and venture capitalists Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss are among the big spenders bankrolling California’s voter ID measure.
Big Brothers Big Sisters of Broward County and Henderson Behavioral Health Win Community Catalyst Award - Florida Hospital News and Healthcare Report
Ty Richardson, Interim President & CEO of the Greater Fort Lauderdale Chamber of Commerce; Vivian Demille, COO of Henderson Behavioral Health; Shari Thomas, Director of Youth & Family at Henderson […]
'Saved by the Bell' star Dennis Haskins' cause of death revealed
The cause of death for Dennis Haskins, an actor who played Principal Richard Belding across the 'Saved by the Bell' franchise, has been revealed. The sitcom star died Sept. 27 in Burbank.
The taxman comes for China’s offshore riches
The crackdown has rattled the country’s wealthiest people and the businesses in Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo that manage their money
naoo Expands Social Media Platform With Professional Entertainment
Eight Microdramas and Short Series Mark the Start – New Streaming Functionality Already Integrated and Currently Being Tested ZUG and ZURICH, SWITZERLAND - October 6, 2026 (NEWMEDIAWIRE) - naoo AG (Dusseldorf: Ticker: NAO; ISIN: CH1323306329), ...
Former CIA official accused of stealing $40M in gold bars pleads guilty
A former senior CIA official pleaded guilty on Tuesday in Virginia to a charge that he abused his position and government funds to enrich himself by acquiring Florida real estate and hundreds of gold bars worth over $40 million, according to court records.
Investment in Shelby's business district will cost roughly $5 million
Shelby will start crafting legislation for a revitalization district, with businesses announcing their expansion to the city.
Black Tooth Business Park Final Plat
The Sheridan City Council met for their first regular business meeting of October Monday night. Sheridan Media’s Ron Richter has the details. A resolution for the final plat of the Black Tooth Business Park located at 3150 Heartland Drive in Sheridan was approved by the Council. City Planner Kelly Schroeder says the applicant, Heartland Assets, […]
Brazil: Lessons from a Disaster
By Antonio Martins (Outras Palavras) Defeats become deeper and more prolonged when we misunderstand what caused them, avoid correcting course, and embrace “solutions” that only compound our mistakes. Lula’s government and the Brazilian left suffered a disaster in Sunday’s election. Contrary to every poll, the president finished the first round 2.2 million votes behind Flávio Bolsonaro—and, more significantly, 3.4 million votes below his total four years ago, when the machinery of the state was working against him and in favor of his opponent. His vote share declined in 98 percent of Brazil’s municipalities. The PL, the main party of the far right, elected 121 deputies and 28 senators, becoming the largest caucus in both houses of Congress. The parties aligned with the Centrão—Brazil’s bloc of transactional center-right parties—were somewhat diminished, but will still hold roughly 250 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate. That will make it easier to assemble the majorities needed to amend the Constitution or impeach Supreme Federal Court justices. If elected, Flávio Bolsonaro could appoint four members of the Court, substantially altering its internal balance of power. What produced these results? How can the far right be prevented from consolidating them into a prolonged political hegemony? And what is the essential change of direction the left now needs? Explaining the Disaster Across the commercial media and the exuberant chaos of digital platforms, interpretations are multiplying. Some focus on specific episodes: Lula’s absence from the Globo debate, his very close relationship with Alexandre de Moraes, or his emphasis on issues supposedly remote from most people’s everyday concerns, such as rare earth minerals. Among the more systemic interpretations, three seem especially questionable. One argues that the principal defeat was not the left’s, since its congressional representation declined only slightly. The decisive movement captured at the ballot box, according to this view, was a shift within the right itself—from the more moderate and transactional forces of the Centrão toward the more ideological and radicalized forces of the PL and Novo. A second interpretation holds that the nature of electoral and political processes has changed. The material interests and aspirations of society, it argues, no longer play the central role they once did; they have given way to forms of subjective self-identification that the left has yet to understand. And a third concludes that, because of these two developments, we should expect a political winter: a prolonged period in which the far right and the broader right dominate Brazilian political life. There are important elements in all three interpretations. The problem lies in what they deny or leave out: Lula’s third government was a small-bore government. It offered the majorities that elected it neither a clearly better life nor reasons to believe again in politics and its power to transform society. These failures flowed from two fatal accommodations, which I will examine below. As a result, the government suffered a slow but steady erosion of support. And, as has happened in so many Western countries, it gave the far right the opportunity to present itself as anti-system and to benefit from popular frustration and distress. The interpretation that emphasizes the migration of votes from the center-right and traditional right toward the far right has been advanced, among others, by the courageous journalist Leonardo Sakamoto. In his UOL column on Monday, October 5, he highlights the miserable behavior of the traditional conservative parties. Over the past four years, they repeatedly joined forces with the “neo”-fascists, helping to “normalize” them—a criticism that could equally be directed at almost the entire corporate media. Believing they could use the far right as a stepping stone, they instead ended up partly devoured by it. This was especially true in the Senate, where the PL’s gain of 13 senators and Novo’s gain of two came at the expense of the PSD, which lost nine; the MDB, which lost two; the PSDB, which lost two; and the PP, which lost one. Sakamoto’s observation is accurate and necessary, but it leaves uncomfortable questions unanswered. Why did the erosion of the Centrão benefit the far right rather than, for example, producing growth for the left—as has happened so many times before, both in Brazil and elsewhere? The answer is not difficult. Throughout its four years in office, Lula’s third government was almost invariably associated with the Centrão. Here lies its first accommodation: accepting the limits imposed by conservative institutions; avoiding, as much as possible, any attempt to strain those limits through popular pressure; and believing only in the modest changes that could be squeezed through openings in Congress. The failure of the campaign to end the six-day workweek is emblematic. Lula could have electrified the presidential race by pairing it with a popular campaign for passage of the measure. Instead, he chose to place his hopes in the hands of Senate president Rodrigo Alcolumbre. He generated no mass mobilization, did not force his opponents onto an uncomfortable defensive, and won no victory. In September 2025, the government squandered the greatest of its many opportunities to shake up conservative power in Congress. Popular opposition to the so-called Shielding Amendment—which, if approved, would have restricted criminal proceedings against members of Congress—brought crowds into the streets, mobilized primarily by artists and social movements. This opened the possibility for a broader political education: a campaign that could begin exposing the limits and dysfunctions of Brazil’s political system while putting Bolsonaro’s movement on the defensive for its predictable support of political privilege. The amendment was defeated. But the executive branch then backed away from the fight. It remained associated with an institutional world widely seen as corrupt, elitist, and indifferent to ordinary people’s struggles. In doing so, it forfeited its credibility as a vehicle for the protest vote. On Sunday, it reaped the bitter fruits. Are We Doomed? Taking a different approach from Sakamoto, the philosopher Moysés Pinto Neto and other writers have drawn attention, in their first analyses of October 4, to the fragmentation of the public sphere produced by Big Tech platforms. Through their algorithms, these platforms present each person with a different view of social reality. As a consequence, it becomes much harder to identify common material problems and demands—for example, the fight for labor rights or for a properly funded public health system. Voters no longer embrace such demands, these authors argue, because they no longer see themselves as part of a collective. Instead, they tend to value the identities assigned to them by neoliberal subjectivity—the role of the entrepreneur, for example. On this interpretation, the left’s possible error lies in clinging to outdated illusions. Moysés’s warning is highly relevant and resonates with arguments such as Naomi Klein and Astra Taylor’s “Apocalyptic Fascism and the Billionaires’ Bet.” Unlike a century ago, the far right no longer promises a radiant future. It concentrates instead on resentment—especially that of young men. “They belong to a generation that fears it may never own a home, but compensates with the pleasure it gets from constantly provoking progressives online. Convinced their future has been stolen, they share memes romanticizing historical authoritarian regimes,” the authors write. But Moysés seems to confuse this danger with inevitability. He fails to see that the left’s answer cannot be adaptation. On the contrary, it must strengthen the possibility of politics as collective action. Nor does he recognize that precisely such a reversal is already becoming possible in some of the most promising mobilizations of the twenty-first century: the election, at the end of 2025, of the young Muslim Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York, on a platform centered on the intensely material fight for an affordable city; the Left Party’s victory in Berlin two weeks ago, built around the demand to expropriate private real-estate corporations; and the very recent wave of demonstrations in Spain—including an occupation of Madrid’s Puerta del Sol—in which tens of thousands of young people mobilized by the Tenants’ Union have demanded limits on rents. By putting itself in the straitjacket of the “fiscal framework” in the first months of 2022, Lula’s third government adopted the second fatal accommodation of its term. Faced with conservative institutions and a country devastated by four years of Bolsonaro, increased public investment was the government’s remaining weapon for offering a more dignified life to the majority and forging an anti-conservative pact with them. The same state that disburses 1 trillion reais a year to enrich a small class of rentiers could instead spend money to extend the Family Health Strategy to every Brazilian, at a cost of 30 billion reais; provide full-day public schooling and childcare to all adolescents and children—and, especially, relief to their mothers; achieve universal sanitation while cleaning up polluted urban rivers; multiply metro systems; begin transforming the urban peripheries; and undertake many other urgently needed projects. In April 2023, an article in Outras Palavras warned that the fiscal framework could “shrink the Lula government and preserve the forces that condemn the country to inequality and regression.” A year later, another article showed that restraints on public spending were strangling policies vital to ordinary people and undermining the president’s popularity. In November 2024 came a reality check, in the form of the government’s humiliating defeat in the municipal elections. Even then, the fiscal lock was neither removed nor loosened. On the contrary: throughout the government’s four years, fiscal restraint remained central to its political narrative. The administration proudly proclaimed that it had “put the state’s accounts in order,” without grasping either how misleading that phrase was—given the payment of 1 trillion reais in interest—or how badly the message was hurting it politically. Lula finally woke up in September 2026. The increase in Bolsa Família benefits, after four years of being frozen; the announcement that anti-obesity drugs would be offered through Brazil’s public health system; and the ban on online betting showed that the state has the power to act decisively on behalf of the majority when those in government are willing to confront obstacles. The huge marches that closed the campaign in Fortaleza, Salvador, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo on the eve of October 4 showed how such initiatives can mobilize activists and the broader public. But it was too late—and too little to change the outcome of the first round. History has not ended The possibility of a turnaround in the three weeks leading up to November 25 cannot be ruled out. It will not be simple or easy. Lula must not only make up a deficit of 2.2 million votes; he must also offset the movement of voters who backed other right-wing candidates in the first round, most of whom are likely to move toward Flávio Bolsonaro. Pulling that off will require a broad, grassroots effort to win over voters, potentially reinforced by new initiatives from Lula. The coming hours and days will be decisive. If Bolsonaro’s movement also wins the presidency, the result will create a high-risk situation for Brazilian sovereignty and democracy. The enormous challenges posed by such an outcome would require the left to reexamine, in depth and with a genuine willingness to engage in self-criticism, its political projects—or its lack of them—and its practices. But would that mean we are condemned to the long winter of far-right hegemony that some analyses are beginning to forecast? It is far too early to say, suggests a recent text by Álvaro García Linera, the thinker who served as vice president of Bolivia under Evo Morales. His central hypothesis is that this political current will prove short-lived. At a moment when the entire world is once again talking about sovereignty and protecting national economies, the far right offers a stale, recolonizing neoliberalism. Its submission to the United States is as blatant and pathetic as Flávio and Eduardo Bolsonaro’s overtures to Donald Trump. Its project amounts to something like every man for himself: greater inequality, capitalism without limits, devastation, and supremacism. Will it work? In the United States, just two years into his second term, Trump himself is reaching record levels of unpopularity and may be on the verge of losing Republican control of both the House and Senate in November. Every new beginning is difficult. Whatever the outcome of the second round, the defeats of October 4 show how profoundly the Brazilian left will have to rethink and rebuild. But just as it would be foolish to underestimate the seriousness of its mistakes, it would be equally foolish to conclude that rebuilding a political project is no longer possible. History has not ended. The times are moving faster than ever. Originally published in Portuguese by Outras Palavras. English translation by Eric Blanc; I’ve added the subtitles. More We can’t stop the far right at home or abroad without a revitalized labor movement, which is yet another reason why you should become a sustaining supporter of the Emergency Workplace Organizing Committee (EWOC) — one of US labor’s pivotal bright spots. Relatedly, Jacobin published a short piece of mine reflecting on a decade of Bernie Sanders inspiring a whole new generation of young worker organizers.
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How Americans’ Financial Health Is Faring In The “K-Shaped” Economy
Hey all, Jason here. Money20/20 is still two weeks away, but I’ve already started packing (not procrastinating for once!). My calendar is already filling up with various sessions I want to catch, meetings, and of course happy hours, dinners, and other side events. If you’ll be in Vegas and want to catch up, let me know by replying to this email, and we can try to find a time amidst the chaos of the Venetian. A big if not totally unexpected piece of news dropped on Friday: the Independent Community Bankers of America, a trade group that represents smaller U.S. banks, filed a lawsuit against the OCC and Comptroller Jonathan Gould, arguing that the regulator’s move to grant trust bank charters to firms seeking to use them to conduct substantial non-fiduciary activities exceeds the authorities granted to the OCC by Congress. I haven’t had time to fully digest the legal filing or speak to folks in my network about it, but you can expect to see coverage and analysis on it in next week’s newsletter. Subscribe or Support by Upgrading The NerdCon agenda just dropped. It’s stacked. Partner content: Nubank built an AI-first bank. Chime built its own banking core. Figure and Valon are rebuilding the mortgage stack. At NerdCon, you’ll hear from the people behind those bets: what they chose, what they learned, and what they’re still figuring out. The agenda is live, with leaders from Nubank, Chime, OpenAI, Remitly, Mercury, Figure, Valon and more. Follow the mainstage conversations, bring the problem your team is wrestling with to a hands-on workshop, or pull up a chair at a roundtable. Pick your quests. Meet us in San Diego, November 18–20. Fintech Business Weekly readers save 20% with code FBW20. Explore the Agenda Things To Know & Other Good Reads Federal Reserve Board finalizes changes to enhance the transparency and public accountability of its stress test and reduce volatility in its stress test-related capital requirements (Federal Reserve Board of Governors) FDIC Announces Conclusion of Independent Monitorship (FDIC) Modernizing Financial Regulation: Initial Observations from eSLR (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman) The Data Version of Godzilla versus Kong: FRED Takes on AI (Fed Governor Christopher Waller) Financing the AI buildout (Brookings) Q3’26: Rules for Banks but Not for Crypto (Fintech Takes Banking) The Inevitability of Local Stablecoins (Lombard Notes) Delusions of AI Governance: The Human-in-the-Loop Comfort Blanket (Fintech Snark Tank) Stripe agrees to acquire Parafin to expand revenue opportunities for platforms and help small businesses grow (Stripe) Listen: Fighting Fraud in the Age of AI, with SEON’s Tamas Kadar (Fintech Business Weekly) How Americans’ Financial Health Is Faring In The “K-Shaped” Economy If there is one overarching theme across the economy and politics in the U.S. at the moment, it’s “affordability.” The term is vague enough to encompass a panoply of factors shaping Americans’ day-to-day lives: rising costs for the hallmarks of being “middle class,” including healthcare, housing, childcare, and education, inflation and rising interest rates, and a job market with the specter of AI hovering over it. At the same time, policy shifts under the Trump administration have resulted in reduced subsidies to those who get health insurance under the Affordable Care Act and new restrictions on qualifying for Medicaid and SNAP, the impacts of which have yet to be fully felt. These factors are contributing to declining consumer confidence and general dissatisfaction with the economy, despite continuing GDP growth and stock market records. This divergence is encapsulated in the idea of the “K-shaped” economy, in which a small proportion of Americans have seen their wealth balloon, while the majority of American households struggle to preserve the lifestyle they have. Perhaps the greatest determinant of which branch of the “K” a household is on is whether their wealth and income are primarily derived from employment vs. from assets. Nearly two decades of low interest rates and, more recently, elevated rates of inflation have benefited asset owners, while those whose income is primarily or solely derived from labor have largely seen real purchasing power stagnate or decline. This is reflected in recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing that labor share of U.S. GDP — the fraction of economic output that accrues to workers as compensation in exchange for their labor — dropped to just 52.8% in Q2 2026, the lowest since the BLS began keeping records. In 1947, approximately 2/3rds of economic output accrued to workers; even as recently as 2001, labor’s share of GDP was 64.1%. Against this backdrop, we’ve seen the rise of more credit and credit-like products: cash advance apps, “no-fee” overdraft, earned wage access, and buy now pay later, which are often used as small-dollar short-term borrowing mechanisms to meet immediate consumption needs or pay other bills (eg utilities, cell phone, other debt payments). With the markers of a middle class existence and, increasingly, basic financial stability seemingly out of reach for many, it should be no surprise there’s been an increase in “financial nihilism,” something industry peers like Alex Johnson and Frank Rotman have discussed and analyzed the roots of. The explosion of gambling and gambling-adjacent products and services — often marketed under the guise of being an “investment” — is inextricably intertwined with the rise of financial nihilism. Crypto, sports betting, and, more recently, prediction markets offer an escape or even hope of sorts, like a contemporary, digital version of a scratch-off lottery ticket, while leaving the overwhelming number of people who use such products worse off. Share of Households That Are Financially “Vulnerable” Ticks Up The Financial Health Network’s 2026 Financial Health Pulse® report adds context on how American households are faring. (I linked to this report in last week’s newsletter, but wanted to take time to further unpack the data in the report this week.) The Financial Health Network publishes the report annually, providing insight into how Americans’ financial circumstances are changing over time. The 2026 report is derived from a survey fielded in April and May 2026. The report leverages survey responses to assess indicators of financial health across spending, saving, borrowing, and planning/protecting and to determine a zero to 100 “FinHealth” score. Those with scores between 0 and 39 are considered “Financially Vulnerable,” consumers with scores ranging between 40 and 79 are defined as “Financially Coping,” and those with scores of 80 to 100 are “Financially Healthy.” The report found that moderate improvements in 2025 were reversed, with the share of respondents considered financially “vulnerable” rebounding to 17%. The longitudinal data reflect the impact of pandemic-era programs, like expanded unemployment, cash stimulus payments, and pauses of federal student loan payments. The positive impacts of those programs, as reflected in the Financial Health Pulse reports, had largely disappeared by 2023. While pandemic-era inflation — to be fair, in part caused by the various support and stimulus measures — had come down from as high as 9% in 2022, it has rebounded since the start of Trump’s second term, with tariffs and energy market disruptions owing to the war in Iran pushing prices back up. Specific indicators in the survey that deteriorated from 2025 to 2026 include the share of respondents spending less than their income over the past 12 months, the share paying all bills on time over the past 12 months, the share that have a manageable amount or no debt, the share that are “moderately” or “very” confident their insurance is adequate to cover them in an emergency, and the share that “somewhat” or “strongly” agree that their household plans ahead financially. Unsurprisingly, lower- and moderate-income households are more likely to struggle to pay their bills on time and have any funds leftover to save. The share of low-income households whose income exceeded their spending dropped from 35% in 2025 to 31% in 2026, while the share of upper-income households whose income exceeded expenses remained unchanged at 63%. Households with student loans or revolving credit card debt reported having “a bit more” or “far more” debt than was manageable at rates far higher than those not carrying these types of debts. The share of those with student loan debt indicating their debt load was too high to manage increased from 50% in 2025 to 55% in 2026, while the share of those with revolving credit card debt saying the same ticked up from 51% in 2025 to 54% in 2026. Households that had student loans were markedly more likely to be financially “coping” or “vulnerable” vs. those without student loans. In 2026, 27% of households with student loans were considered financially vulnerable, a jump of 6% points vs. 2025. Households without student loans saw just a 1% point increase (not statistically significant) in those considered financially vulnerable. Households’ perception of the affordability of categories of goods and services paints a stark picture, with less than one-fourth considering higher education affordable, about a third deeming childcare affordable, and less than half viewing healthcare as affordable. Fintech Business Weekly is made possible by the generous support of paying subscribers — bringing you independent analysis of banking, fintech, and crypto without fear or favor. You can support my work by becoming a paying subscriber if you aren’t already. Paying subscribers enjoy: access to the entire archive of nearly six years of newsletters extended versions of the weekly newsletter, with additional content and analysis and (for founding member tier) quarterly personal 1:1 fintech Q&A / strategy calls with me, tapping into my unparalleled knowledge of the intersection of banking and fintech and experience working in the sector, including helping to launch Goldman Sachs’ retail bank Marcus Support Fintech Business Weekly You can also support Fintech Business Weekly by sponsoring a newsletter or podcast, putting you in front of 93,000+ of the most influential decision makers in banking, fintech, and crypto. Learn more about sponsor opportunities or request a media kit by dropping me an email. Democratic Senate Report Highlights How Iran Uses Tether to Evade U.S. Sanctions Iran uses stablecoins, specifically Tether, to evade sanctions, fund regional proxies, and to purchase military drones, a report released last week by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations says. The report was authored by committee ranking member Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and the minority staff. Crypto and stablecoin proponents will often push back on criticism that criminals make use of these assets by arguing that, on an absolute dollar basis, far more illicit funds flow through traditional banking systems and payment rails than via crypto and stablecoins. And while that is likely true, it elides the reality presented in news story after news story: whether state actors — Russia, Iran, North Korea — or criminal groups, those looking to engage in illicit transactions increasingly favor stablecoins and, specifically, Tether (USDT). The report from the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released last week adds context to how Iran uses Tether has a lynchpin in its shadow banking system. The report analyzed 846 wallets that have been sanctioned or targeted for seizure, finding that 84% of them transacted exclusively or primarily in Tether. The ability to create near limitless, anonymous wallets and to move funds effectively instantaneously and irreversibly have made crypto a favored financial mechanism for bad actors. Stablecoins solved key drawbacks of bitcoin, namely, the original cryptocurrency’s highly volatile value in dollars. And while Tether (the company) has the technical ability to “freeze” or destroy funds, the company is often limited and reactive in its approach to doing so, the Senate report argues. Tether, which is nominally based in crypto-friendly El Salvador, “has stated that its compliance with OFAC sanctions is ‘voluntary’ and that it follows ‘OFAC guidelines,’” the Senate report says. Owing to these favorable attributes, Tether “became a primary cryptocurrency for Iran, Hamas, Hizballah, and the Houthis beginning in 2023 and has expanded in scale since,” according to the report. Tether’s role in Iran’s shadow banking system, the report says, is enhanced by crypto exchanges like Bybit, Kyrrex, OKX, Gate, and Binance, and through “over the counter” exchanges and hawala networks. The consequences of these financial flows aren’t hypothetical. The Senate report links Tether as a funds transfer mechanism to Iranian proxies in the region, including Hizballah, the Houthis, and Hamas. Tether has also been used to make payments to secure components necessary to manufacture drones, the report says. The report concludes by arguing that “[s]tablecoin issuers with a significant nexus to the United States, particularly those that offer dollar-denominated stablecoins, should be subject to American sanctions law rather than being allowed to hide behind foreign jurisdictions.” Stablecoin issuers like Tether must be held accountable for repeated failures to prevent illicit finance and sanctions violations by law enforcement, the Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and OFAC, the report argues. [Paying Subscriber Exclusive] OUSD Goes Live, Make Your Own Neobank, U.S. Sanctions Russia’s A7 Network As “Transnational Criminal Organization” OpenUSD, the stablecoin issued by the Open Standard consortium that includes Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, core providers, crypto firms, and numerous banks, went live last week. Social commerce platform Whop raised eyebrows in fintech by offering creators on its platform the ability to launch their own neobanks, which the company describes as “great businesses that are easy to run,” in just 15 minutes. And OFAC and FinCEN target Russia’s “shadow banking” A7 Network — more on these stories after the paywall.
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