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The politics of Trump's ballroom
WEST PALM BEACH, Florida — President Trump was about a half-hour into his second speech of the day, musing about the danger he faced last week at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. “Saturday night, it was good for one thing. People are loving my ballroom now,” Trump told a crowd last night. “That’s the only thing. They love my ballroom.” Ever since he was hustled off stage at the Washington Hilton last week, after an attempted shooter breached the dinner’s security perimeter and sent guests diving to the floor, the president has argued that the incident is proof for why his White House ballroom is needed. Only his planned $400 million, 90,000-square-foot project, Trump has reasoned, can keep a president truly safe at major events. It’s true that a bunch of GOP lawmakers have jumped on board with new legislation and words of support for Trump’s project. House Speaker Mike Johnson, Sen. Rand Paul and other prominent Republicans went on TV to talk about the need for a ballroom. But as we reported at The Washington Post this week, “people” aren’t really changing their minds on Trump’s ballroom. A new Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that most Americans still oppose the ballroom project: 56 percent against it versus 28 percent in favor. The numbers are the same as a poll from last year, the Post’s polling whiz Scott Clement found. Other new polls have found similar margins, too. “I’m just not a giant fan, especially of extravagance,” one independent voter told me. “I mean, in the era we’re in right now, given how much people are struggling, it just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to spend $400 million on a ballroom.” How we got here The Washington Post has followed Trump’s ballroom project very closely. (My colleague Jonathan Edwards may have written the most total words of any reporter about the project; I may be second.) The project exploded as a national issue after Trump tore down the White House’s East Wing after initially promising not to touch it.1 Historic preservationists sued, and about a month ago, a federal judge ordered a halt to ballroom construction.2 The only way the ballroom could proceed, U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ruled, was if Congress explicitly authorized Trump’s plans. (An appeals court has stayed Leon’s order for now.) The judge’s ruling raised an obvious question: would Congress authorize the project? Keep in mind, “authorization” doesn’t mean that Congress needs to necessarily fund the planned $400 million project; they could just sign off on the private donations that Trump has solicited to pay for the ballroom.3 But GOP lawmakers really didn’t want to talk about the ballroom, we reported at The Post just a few weeks ago. One major reason was the ballroom’s bad polling — not a small detail with many of their own midterm elections looming. The White House Correspondents’ Dinner incident, and Trump’s advocacy, may have changed the political conversation around the ballroom. As this week’s polling shows, it doesn’t seem to have affected the fundamental questions surrounding the project. To put it another way, voters still say that cost-of-living concerns are top-of-mind heading into the midterms. Some Republican and independent voters have told me that they see the ballroom as a vanity project that will help Trump but do nothing for their own lives. It might not help Republicans that Trump has dismissed some of the cost-of-living concerns. He’s described “affordability” as a buzzword manufactured by Democrats whose policies helped cause inflation. “They’ve got one good line of bullshit,” Trump said in his first speech yesterday, delivered at a Florida retirement community known as The Villages. Thanks for reading Dan Diamond's newsletter! Subscribe for free to stay up-to-date on my work. Subscribe Speaking of Trump’s speeches… I’m down in Florida because it’s my “duty week” as a White House reporter — basically, I follow the president wherever he goes. (And then hand the baton off to one of my Washington Post colleagues next week.) As part of my duty week, I’ve spent a few days covering the White House’s reaction to Saturday’s attempted shooting, including officials’ review of the security protocols to protect the president. Trump was restrained in the wake of the incident, addressing the nation from the White House briefing room about the need for peaceful dialogue and trying to lower the temperature. But he’s clearly been itching to get back out of the White House, and I was curious to hear how his Florida speeches would go. And — to my ears — it was an unburdened Trump. Not the one we saw Saturday night in the White House briefing room, but the one we witnessed on the campaign trail in 2024. Loose, dropping profanities, mocking everyone, including members of his team. “We have a man here who knows more about Medicaid, Medicare, medical crap than any human being. Where’s Dr. Oz? Where the hell are you, stand up,” Trump said, referring to Mehmet Oz, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. “It’s the most boring trip I’ve ever made. He’s telling me about Medicare, Medicaid. All I want to do is take care of you, I don’t care. I said, ‘You work out the details.’” I wrote up the speech, as Trump headed to West Palm Beach to deliver more remarks a few hours later. The White House didn’t like my story. Their rapid-response team called it the work of a “total loser”4 and “a miserable TDS-ridden moron.” You can be the judge of whether it’s a fair story or the product of someone afflicted with “TDS.” (The White House’s shorthand for “Trump Derangement Syndrome.”) I’ve pasted the story below with a gift link, meaning that you don’t need to be a Washington Post subscriber to read it. It might prompt you for an email address, though. Meanwhile, I’ll be down in Florida for the rest of the weekend, covering the president. It’s TBD whether those stories will be deemed TDS-afflicted, too. 1 Jonathan details the past six months of ballroom fallout, reactions and the implications for executive authority here. I also had a great time talking about Trump’s ballroom and other projects with Australia’s ABC News Daily on a podcast this week. 2 The judge allowed underground construction and national security-related work to continue. But that hasn’t been enough for Trump, who says the ballroom itself is essential for his protection. 3 The ballroom donors include companies like Palantir, Google and Amazon. For transparency, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post, where I work. No one has ever interfered with our team’s coverage of the ballroom or our mentions of Amazon or Bezos, and if that changed, I’d speak out. 4 To be fair, I’ve spent the morning working on stories and writing this Substack post rather than enjoying the beautiful Florida weather. So they may be onto something about who’s winning and who’s losing.
UK woman wins right to receive permanent birth control after exposing double standards in health service
A British woman who was denied permanent birth control through the UK ’s national health service on the grounds she might regret the decision has won her case with the country’s health ombudsman after a 10-year legal battle
The Department of Justice might be the big loser in the Comey charges
Trump’s revenge prosecutions are impairing its credibility
Next year’s iPhone Pro models could get all-new design, quad-curved display
Apple’s rumored 20th anniversary iPhone might actually just be an all-new design that’s coming to next year’s iPhone Pro models.
Here's How Apple's Folding iPhone Could Stand Apart
The so-called "iPhone Ultra" might dodge the problems of other book-style foldable phones with a hybrid iPhone-iPad interface.
Americans really don’t like Trump’s attempts at ornamentation
Up until now, there’s been little polling about President Donald Trump’s efforts to gild the nation’s capital and government. But as it turns out, Americans seem to regard these things as about as ghastly as they might seem.
New Lithium-Plasma Engine Passes Key Mars Propulsion Test
You’re on the fourth human mission to Mars, and you’re told the Odyssey spacecraft designed to take you there will be the smoothest ride you’ll ever take. It features a newly christened electric propulsion engine which was in the late stages of testing during the first three missions. The mission starts and the spacecraft travels at a crawl, and you wonder if it’s broken. A week goes by and you’re now traveling at more than 400,000 kilometers (250,000 miles) per hour, and your mind is blown as to how fast you’re going, how quickly that happened, and that this mission might be more awesome than you thought.
5 tips for safely using AI to improve your health and nutrition
While instant answers to health and nutrition questions might seem appealing, these AI-generated responses can be risky.
New study suggests coffee supports gut health and mood
Key Takeaways:Coffee might support both gut health and mood, with recent study participants showing lower stress, depression, and more beneficial gut bacteria.OSF gastroenterologist Omar Khokhar says effects vary by individual and coffee type, and the study only shows a correlation, not proof of cause.Moderation and personal tolerance matter mos...
Why prediction markets might be skipping the Kentucky Derby
Prediction markets pose a threat to the horse racing industry, which depends heavily on gambling tax revenue.
Trump is betting his blockade will defy history and break Iran
President Donald Trump’s maritime blockade is the latest attempt to test a thus far unproven theory of the Iran war — that superior US might will inevitably break the Islamic Republic.
Champions League Power Rankings: PSG underdogs despite advantage on Bayern; Atleti built to surprise Arsenal
Here's how the semifinalists rank after 90 minutes played, and you might be surprised where Arsenal sit
Sony clarifies recent PlayStation DRM update
PlayStation fans and gaming preservations have been alarmed since late last week that a new 30-day timer attached attached to newly-purchased digital games for PlayStation 4 and 5 might render those games unplayable if the system they’re on is offline for longer than a month. But a rep from Sony told Game File today that new system will require only a single online check before it functions as a perpetual license for the digitally purchased game. That is consistent with a newer theory that emerged by gamers testing the 30-day timer over the last two days. “Players can continue to access and play their purchased games as usual,” a rep for PlayStation told me over email. “A one-time online check is required after purchase to confirm the game’s license, after which no further check-ins are needed.” The rep’s explanation squares with the current understanding among players about what’s happening. A multi-day mystery A post last Friday by YouTuber Lance MacDonald spread awareness over the 30-day timer. Quickly, players began stress-testing the system, removing a battery within their PlayStations and checking what would happen if their systems were offline past the timer window. They noticed that setting a PS4 or PS5 to be the “primary” console—a common Sony-authorized method to retain rights to a digital game—wasn’t overriding the 30-day limit. On Tuesday came the breakthrough: A gamer called Andshrew on the Resetera forums posted the results of some tasting. They found that digital games purchased on PS4/PS5 after some time in mid-April would get a 30-day timer that could then be removed and replaced with a perpetual license that would allow the game to be played offline. The transition to the perpetual license occurred some number of days after the digital game was purchased and the system was connected to the internet. They believed that a PlayStation’s online check-in would trigger the license change no sooner than 15 days after the user had purchased the game. This synced with the theory that Sony’s new system is related to the 14-day window that PlayStation users have to request a refund for digitally purchased games. The new timer/check-in system could be a way to defeat some exploit in that refund system, some users theorized. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe In a follow-up, I asked the Sony rep if the 15-day timeline is accurate or if the perpetual license can be activated sooner after purchase. If they share more, I’ll update this post. Sony has not said why they’ve introduced the timer and whether it is designed to stop people from exploiting the refund system. But their explanation suggests that this new DRM method should not result in long-term loss of access to digitally purchased games, just because a PlayStation is offline for a month or Sony’s servers are down. Xbox flashback For many some gamers, the initial reporting of the 30-day timer conjured memories of Microsoft’s disastrous May 2013 announcement of the Xbox One, which was going to require an internet-connected check-in once a day, lest your games become unplayable.1 After widespread backlash, Microsoft abandoned that plan, ahead of the Xbox One’s launch. 1 Fun fact: That 24-hour check-in detail was my scoop from an interview I had that day with then-Xbox exec Phil Harrison. I was EiC of Kotaku at the time and rushing from one Xbox One preview appointment on Microsoft’s campus to another. I phoned the news in to reporter Jason Schreier, who wrote it up for the site.
March Madness expansion is harmless. CFP expansion changes the sport
March Madness expansion to 76 teams won't ruin the season. But, College Football Playoff expansion might torpedo its season.
Classic PS1, PSP Tales Remaster Leaks, But It Might Be a Nintendo Switch Exclusive
It's been an Eternia
Apple might ditch MagSafe on future iPhones, per bizarre rumor
MagSafe is a fan-favorite iPhone feature, but a bizarre rumor this week says Apple is apparently debating whether to remove...
Google’s ‘Pixel Glow’ might have several lights as laptop animation surfaces [Video]
Google's new "Pixel Glow" feature has shown up in code with a few more details, including how many lights it has.
Time to Leave the College Nest. Now What?
Searching for a job right after graduation can be a perilous task. Here's what I learned from my journey that might help others.
Mental health care providers worry some patients will suffer after insurance organization wants money back
Northeast Ohio mental health providers fear some of their patients might have to go without care after a major insurance organization said it needs to recoup significant money.
Meet the Hack Law Professor Trying to Destroy the Fourteenth Amendment
You might not know his name, but you’ll certainly hate what he’s trying to do to our country.
New PlayStation Plus Game for May 2026 Announced Early
A new game coming to PS Plus in May 2026 was already unveiled by Sony, but many might have missed the announcement.
Lawmakers pass incentives to bring aerospace business to Louisiana
Lawmakers are passing a package of bills to give special legal protections and tax breaks to aerospace companies, though details about what projects might be coming remain confidential.
The G512 X is Logitech’s most advanced and customizable gaming keyboard yet
Featuring support for both mechanical and analog switch with TMR sensors, rapid trigger tech and an 8K polling rate, the Logitech G512 X might be Logitech's fanciest and most customizable gaming keyboard to date.
Denver Health ended up on a list of at-risk hospitals — but it's not as bad off as you might think
Denver Health’s CEO says any talk of service reduction is “premature,” after a new report lists it among Colorado hospitals most at risk.
Apple’s new MacBook Ultra could be exactly what I’ve been wanting
Apple’s MacBook Pro overhaul might actually be a new model: MacBook Ultra. Here’s why it sounds like the exact model I’ve been wanting.
Is Outlook Down? Microsoft Reports Sign-on Issues With Email Client
You might have trouble logging into your email Monday morning.
Security has long been top of mind for Melania Trump. She faced those concerns in a new way this weekend
On the eve of her 56th birthday, first lady Melania Trump recognized the danger she might face, her usual stoicism giving way to a look of surprise and distress.
The divisive MJ film everyone is flocking to see-hee
The King of Pop might just be the King of Popcorn, too.
This one change to your exercise routine could add years to your life
Mixing up your workouts might be the real secret to a longer life. Long-term research tracking over 100,000 people for more than three decades suggests that doing a variety of physical activities—rather than just more of the same—can significantly lower the risk of death. Interestingly, the benefits don’t keep rising endlessly; they seem to level off after a certain point, hinting at a “sweet spot” of activity.
The foldable iPhone Ultra might have a problem on launch day
The foldable iPhone Ultra might not have the smoothest of launches.
The long rumored foldable iPad may never see the light of day.
Apple has supposedly been working on a folding tablet since at least 2023. The rumored release has slipped from 2024, to 2026, to 2028, to 2029, and now, according to Mark Gurman, it might not happen at all. While it was a priority for incoming CEO John Ternus, its future is now in doubt: > Foldable iPad: Apple has been working on a roughly 20-inch foldable iPad. This device has been a Ternus priority but may end up being a wacky experiment that doesn’t see the light of day, according to several people who have worked on it.
Will doubters believe in Hearts' title chances now?
Some have waited all season for Hearts to falter. Plenty thought it might be at Easter Road. But Derek McInnes' side are still going, writes Tom English.
Samsung Galaxy S27 Ultra Might Sport A 5,800mAh Battery – Here’s Why It’ll Be More Than Enough Even As Chinese Rivals Push 6,000mAh+ Batteries
Samsung Galaxy S27 Ultra to sport the uber-efficient M16 OLED screen, with overall efficiency bolstered by Exynos 2700's new architecture.
Bosses don’t like the sound of a ‘four-day workweek’. Maybe it’s time to rebrand it
Some employers are reluctant to cut workers’ hours but pay them the same – but it just might be the future of work
She's 35 and obsessed with living longer. It might be working.
It's the Wild West for women's health and longevity, and Kayla Barnes-Lentz is taking the reins.
Xbox's Big Turnaround Hedges Everything on Gamers' Nostalgia
The future of Xbox might lie in its roots.
Apple wanted to blow us away for the 20th anniversary of the iPhone, now it’s not so sure
The iPhone 20 Pro sounded so good. Now Apple might be forced to abandon the plan entirely.
EDITORIAL: Is Science Good or Bad?
The answer to this isn’t as obvious as you might think. According to some Christians, science is bad when it tells us the earth came into being over millions of years. But other times science is good, such as when it gives the church tools to evangelize, and when it helps us travel around to […]
Gravitational waves may have created dark matter in the early universe
In the chaotic first moments after the Big Bang, ripples in spacetime may have done more than just echo through the cosmos—they could have helped create dark matter itself. New research suggests that faint, ancient gravitational waves might have transformed into particles that eventually became the invisible substance shaping galaxies today.
Weekend reads: What paper mills charge for author slots; UK Biobank data breached; what researchers think of the future of science
If your week flew by — we know ours did — catch up here with what you might have missed. The week at Retraction Watch featured: 10 years ago, Elisabeth Bik published a preprint heard around the wor…
iPhone 18 Pro Max design unit hands-on video shows 25% smaller Dynamic Island; variable aperture likely
Hands-on video of the iPhone 18 Pro Max dummy units reveal a 25% smaller Dynamic Island and a thicker camera array with larger lenses, hinting at the rumored variable aperture for the main 48MP camera. The iPhone 18 Pro Max appears boring next to iPhone Ultra/Fold, but this might be the biggest front upgrade for Apple's Pro iPhone since iPhone 14 Pro.
The Planet Needs Prosperous Forests. These Scientists Are Planting More Than 33,000 Trees to Find the Perfect Blend of Species
Forests provide myriad benefits, including timber, wildlife attraction, local cooling and climate resilience. At the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, ecologists are testing which tree combinations might create flourishing woodlands
The Planet Needs Prosperous Forests. These Scientists Are Planting More Than 33,000 Trees to Find the Perfect Species Blends
Forests provide myriad benefits, including timber, wildlife attraction, local cooling and climate resilience. At the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, ecologists are testing which tree combinations might create flourishing woodlands
Could your beer have health benefits? Here’s what new research says
A casual beer might come with an unexpected perk. Drinking the occasional pint could provide “substantial levels” of vitamin B6, an essential nutrient that supports brain function, blood health and…
Building a massive dam between Alaska and Russia could prevent AMOC collapse, scientists say
Building a dam in the Bering Strait might preserve the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but experts warn it could also threaten wildlife, Indigenous people and shipping — and could actually speed up its demise.
‘Will Trent’ Fans Have a Grim Theory About That Cliffhanger
Here's what that final shot might've meant, according to fans.
'Medical freedom' on Special Session agenda. But it comes with political risk
The House didn't hear it during the Regular Session, and polls said that might have been the right move.
2025-26 NBA Playoff Odds: Why Long-Shot Magic Are Best Bet to Win East
If you believe in magic like Will Hill, long-shot Orlando to win the East might be a bet you want to consider. Here's why.
Choice lifestyle: Family business flourishes in tough love for backcountry skiing
Grace Yancey might someday write a book about her childhood winters – the igloo playhouse, a breezy three-sided latrine and visitors from around the world at her Little House in the Purcells.
Women's sports won't save your city's economy. It might do something better.
Thirty years of research says sports mega-events don't drive growth. Newer leagues aren't trying to, and that's the point.
Reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug might only be the first step for Trump
President Donald Trump’s decision to reclassify state-licensed medical marijuana as a less dangerous drug is a boon for the industry.
Sports guidance to brands from three sources: Keep the fan top of mind and you might just win
Agencies are hiring talent from the big leagues, crystallizing sport-related efforts into full-fledged business opportunities.
Raiders' challenge? Make Mendoza successful
The No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft will be asked to turn around a franchise that has struggled mightily the past few years.
The ‘Make America Healthy Again’ Movement Is Cooling on Trump and Republicans
Vaccine skeptics, ‘organic moms’ and environmental activists came together toelect President Trump. Butsome voters are disillusioned and might not turn out again.
DJI’s new Lito Series beginner drones start at less than $400
The Lito X1 might be worth the upgrade for amateur pilots with its obstacle-avoiding LIDAR sensor.
Want to live a longer, happier life? Science says work to be more successful (but not in the way you might think)
A decades-long (and counting) study reveals happiness lies not necessarily in the achievement, but in the pursuit.
How low can Ohio go? The gubernatorial race might show us
Ohio governor candidates on the right seem determined to answer one question: How low can you go and still get elected?
Bucs Cook named SoCon Track Athlete of the Week
SPARTANBURG, S.C. (WJHL) — Whatever one might define as a sophomore slump, Micailah Cook has done the complete opposite. The second-year sprinter took home SoCon Women’s Track Athlete of the Week for the week ending on April 21, as announced by the league office on Wednesday. This is the second outdoor weekly award for Cook […]
iPhone 18’s new specs might bring subtle regressions to cut costs
Rumors about the base iPhone 18 indicate it could regress in minor ways to be more like Apple’s budget ‘e’ model.
Science for the Planet: Turning Waste Into Critical Materials
Greeshma Gadikota and her team explore how materials that might otherwise be landfilled can be transformed into products needed for solar energy and other critical technologies.
Joe Buck reportedly closing in on deal to host sports version of 'Jeopardy!' on ESPN
Joe Buck might have a new broadcasting role soon.
Logan Airport travelers might have been exposed to measles, health officials warn
Travelers at Boston Logan International Airport earlier this month might have been exposed to measles, health officials warned Wednesday. The Boston Public Health Commission and the Massachusetts Department of Public Health said that a person with measles visited Terminal C at Logan Airport shortly after midnight on Tuesday, April 14. The person traveled to Boston on JetBlue Airways flight 470,…
Sports Daily: What will Chiefs do? NFL Draft starts tomorrow
In a season full of tough losses for the Royals, Monday night’s setback might’ve been the worst. Is there hope in KC after a season-worst 7-16 start?
Crooked Letter Sports: There’s a draft in here
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5 takeaways from the Virginia redistricting vote
Tuesday’s vote makes the tit-for-tat redistricting war that’s played out over the past several months something close to a draw. Republicans could still come out with a slight advantage if Florida passes a new map in the coming weeks. But what’s clear is that it seems the fight launched by President Donald Trump hasn’t landed Republicans near the advantage they might have imagined it would last year.
Analysis: Fans have turned on Rosenior
It marked radical new low point in a bleak run of five consecutive league defeats without a goal for Chelsea - their worst such sequence in more than a century and one that few supporters have witnessed in their lifetime. Given the club's success over the past 25 years, it is perhaps understandable that patience is thin for a head coach appointed just three months ago from Chelsea's partner club, Strasbourg. There were early signs that the night might not unfold as Rosenior had hoped.
SBA administrator speaks to ABC13 on economic uncertainty ahead of midterm elections: 'It's a blip'
With the war in Iran and growing costs creating uncertainty, the economy is atop voters minds heading into the 2026 midterms. While data reveals Texas is faring better economically than much of the country, growth might be slowing.
Wearable health tech might be Tim Cook’s greatest legacy
An Apple (Watch) a day might keep the doctor away.
Wearable health tech might be Tim Cook’s greatest legacy
An Apple (Watch) a day might keep the doctor away.
From Donald Trump to Jacob Frey — has politics lost its profanity filter?
If there was ever a set of rules for politicians interfacing with the public, steadfast avoidance of profanity might have been at the very top of such a list. Robert’s Rules of Order, which are often invoked in political spaces, certainly prohibit personal insults, including profanity. But these are new times. Just last week, President Donald Trump […]
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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The Death of Public Health
During the recent measles outbreak, the largest in more than 30 years, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refused to clearly recommend the measles vaccine, saying instead that it was a “personal decision,” and that parents should “do their own research.” Similarly, during her recent confirmation hearing for United States Surgeon General, Casey Means was questioned by Senator William Cassidy (R, La). “You’re the nation’s doctor,” said Cassidy. “Would you encourage [a mother] to have her child vaccinated!” “I’m not an individual’s doctor,” Means said. “And every individual needs to talk to their doctor before putting a medication in their body.” In June 2025, Marty Makary, Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said that COVID vaccines for pregnant women should be a “personal choice”, even though every other country in the world recommended the COVID vaccine during pregnancy due to a higher risk for severe disease. It doesn’t end there. On January 5, 2026, RFK Jr. reduced the number of routinely recommended vaccines from 18 to 10. For vaccines that protected against influenza, COVID, and rotavirus, parents were urged to speak with their doctors—to make an individual choice. (On March 16, 2026, in a ruling by a federal court in Boston, RFK Jr.’s revised schedule was invalidated.) What’s happening? Why are public health officials moving away from making recommendations for the public? The origin of this change might be rooted in the first two years of the COVID pandemic. In 2020, during the first year on the pandemic, we didn’t have anything to stop a virus that was killing hundreds of people a day and could be spread asymptomatically. We didn’t have antivirals until October, monoclonal antibodies until November, and vaccines until December. All we could do was restrict travel, close businesses, shutter schools, and mask, isolate, quarantine, test, and social distance. During the second year of the pandemic, when we had vaccines to prevent COVID, people couldn’t go anywhere without their vaccine cards. They couldn’t go to their favorite bar or restaurant or sporting event or place of worship without proof of vaccination. Some people were fired from their jobs for refusing to get vaccinated. For many, this was seen as massive government overreach and energized what has been called the “medical freedom movement.” Indeed, a headline in the New York Times declared, “How Health Freedom Became a Winning Rally Cry.” As expressed in the comments of RFK Jr., Casey Means, and Marty Makary, the medical freedom movement focuses on the individual not the community—the opposite of public health. In an article titled “Ethics and Social Value Judgments in Public Health,” ethicists from Yale University distinguished public health from medical freedom. “Public health policies,” they wrote, “are population oriented. Because individual health affects the health of others, public health measures regulate individual behavior to achieve population health goals. All raise questions about how individual autonomy and freedom should be balanced against public health interests…which respects individuals’ sovereignty over their bodies and actions as long as their actions do not harm others.” The medical freedom movement fails to recognize that it often limits the freedom of others. For example, a parent who is afraid to send a child to school where many of the students are unvaccinated. Or immune compromised children who depend on those around them to for protection. The question then becomes “Freedom for whom?” Is it your right, in the name of medical freedom, to catch and transmit a potentially fatal infection—and in so doing, take away the freedom of others? In Four Essays on Liberty, Isaiah Berlin sums it up best. “Liberty for the wolves,” he wrote, “is death to the lambs.” Thanks for reading Beyond the Noise! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
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Coachella wraps up today with Karol G.
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