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Gonzales ahead in Democratic primary for Secretary of State
Amanda Gonzalez is leading Jessie Danielson in the Democratic primary for Secretary of State, based on early returns posted after polls closed Tuesday night. As of 7:20 p.m., Gonzalez had 63.61% of the vote, while Danielson had 36.39%. Gonzalez, an election attorney, currently serves as the Jefferson County clerk and as an adjunct professor of […]
Health officials warn of West Nile virus in mosquito in Alhambra, human infection in Long Beach
The first human case of West Nile virus in Long Beach and current mosquito-carrying activity in the San Gabriel Valley has been reported this month.
GTA VI May Be Limited to 30 FPS on Current-Gen Consoles
With the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI rapidly approaching, rumors surrounding the game's launch have been circulating, with some of those predicting that the game's launch will result in a console hardware shortage, more recently, however, Digital Foundry predicted that the new GTA game may not be ...
DEA Comes Out Swinging in Cannabis Rescheduling Hearing
The government argued in support of currently accepted medical use; anti-rescheduling parties attempted to poke holes in the Schedule III recommendation.
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
Evidence points to potential new LCD screen for Nintendo Switch 2
The Nintendo Switch 2 screen could be getting a revision, based on the latest evidence. On a Chinese resale site, a listing recently appeared for a a new model of the system’s LCD panel. Sharp would apparently behind the updated screen. The current Nintendo Switch 2 features a panel from Innolux. This new screen has a different circuit, connector, and...
LDI and American Healthcare
A news feature from the Pennsylvania Gazette reflects on LDI’s history and leaders, and how they are currently meeting the federal health policy moment.
DF Weekly: The GTA 6 60fps Debate Returns: Is There a Route Forward on Current-Gen Consoles Like Series X, PS5 or PS5 Pro?
Or is a 40fps mode for 120Hz displays the most we can hope for?
Apple Plans Wider Color Gamut for Future MacBook Pro, iMac, and iPad Pro
Apple plans to adopt OLED panels capable of displaying a much wider range of colors, according to a new report from research firm TrendForce. The new panels would cover 95% of the BT.2020 color standard, which describes a far broader spectrum of colors than the DCI-P3 standard Apple's screens currently target. In practice, that means deeper, more accurate reds, greens, and blues.
This Compact, Emission-Free Gas Turbine Is Rocket Science
This week’s Current Climate newsletter also looks at America lagging in EVs and charging infrastructure, and Sunrun’s transformation into a company
Ad Performance And Politics Steered Brand Dollars Away From LGBTQ+ Communities – But The Pendulum Will Swing Back
The current administration discouraged many brands and organizations from supporting and marketing to the LGBTQ+ community, including in June
Comcast says it plans to split into two businesses, NBCUniversal and Sky
Current shareholders would receive shares in both companies under the planned split, Comcast said Monday.
T-Mobile Is Automatically Pushing Legacy Customers Onto Its Current Plans
Some long-time subscribers could see a price increase of around $4 a line.
Talawar Therapeutics and JATT II Acquisition Corp. Announce Definitive Business Combination Agreement to Create Publicly Listed Biotechnology Company Developing Potentially Best-in-Class Bispecifics for I&I Diseases
Oversubscribed $225 million concurrent private investment in public equity ("PIPE") with available cash to the combined company at closing anticipated to fund...
iPhone 18e Won't Get ProMotion Display, Says Leaker
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18e will have the same display refresh rate as the existing iPhone 17e, according to a prominent Chinese leaker. Discussing Apple's product plans for 2027 in a Weibo post, Digital Chat Station claimed that the next generation of Apple's low-cost iPhone will feature the same 60Hz low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) TFT panel as the current model.
Grand Theft Auto VI Rumored to Offer 60 FPS Mode on PS5/Xbox Series X, But Maybe Not at Launch
One of the reasons Grand Theft Auto VI fans are eager to learn the currently missing details on PS5 Pro enhancements is that the most powerful console available on the market is expected to include a performance mode targeting 60 FPS. However, according to a credible source, there's a decent chance that even the base PlayStation 5 and Microsoft's roughly equivalent Xbox Series X will support 60 FPS in Rockstar's massively anticipated game. The rumor comes from the popular Polish gaming podcast Rock and Borys, which features Remigiusz "Rock" Maciaszek and Borys Nieśpielak. It is the latter who shared in […]
OUTAGE RESOLVED: Tri-County mental health crisis lines back online
Update: As of Sunday, June 28 at 3:25 p.m., the Multnomah County Crisis Line, the Washington County Crisis Line and the Clackamas County Crisis and Support Line are currently back online.
About 170,000 people in England expected to die from obesity-linked heart conditions by 2035
British Heart Foundation finds about 45 people a day expected to die over next decade if current trends continue
TECHNICAL OUTAGE: Tri-County mental health crisis lines temporarily down
As of Sunday, June 28 at 10:30 a.m., the Multnomah County Crisis Line, Washington County Crisis Line and Clackamas County Crisis and Support Line are currently not working due to a network outage.
Entertainment Firms Face AI Copyright Uncertainty
Editorial analysis: For AI and ML practitioners, unclear copyright rules raise the legal risk and compliance cost of using generative models in production content pipelines. According to The Economic Times, Indian entertainment firms are investing heavily in AI for content creation, but current copyright law, which is tied to human creativity, may not clearly protect AI-assisted or AI-generated works. The Economic Times reports lawyers warn that, without specific legislation or case law, such works face risks of duplication and misuse, complicating licensing, attribution, and monetization for studios and creators. The article highlights that creators and rights holders in India currently have limited legal recourse under existing statutes, per The Economic Times.
'The fate of Earth depends on a delicate balance': Our planet may survive the death of the sun after all, new models hint
When the sun dies, it will become hundreds of times its current size and engulf the innermost planets. Earth may escape this infernal fate, according to state-of-the-art stellar evolution models.
Peer Support May Be the Answer to the Mental Health Crisis
Peer support is the sleeping giant that may help us overcome the social and mental health crises we currently face.
Reporter talks environmental, health impacts of mining efforts near Boundary Waters
WTIP spoke to Benji Jones, Senior Correspondent at Vox Media, about what environmental and health experts are saying about the proposed Twin Metals mining project in the Boundary Waters Watershed. Jones’ article “Mining these metals could be a boon for the climate — but there’s one big catch,” is currently available at vox.com. Below is...
VIA Women’s Health Collective celebrates grand opening
By Megan Dial VIA Women’s Health Collective, 17300 Westfield Blvd., Suite 330, celebrated its grand opening June 18 with the Westfield mayor, Westfield Chamber of Commerce and other community supporters. Dr. Taylor Hahn said she founded VIA Women’s Health Collective to support women in every s
Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) A Bargain Following Its Sharp Pullback?
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the stock down about 9% over the past month and about 11% over the past 3 months, which has sharpened the focus on its current valuation. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. At a recent share price of $8.39, Tencent Music Entertainment Group has posted a year to date share price decline of about 53% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of about 55%. However, the 3...
Google testing iPhone feature to add to Pixel smartphones
Google might soon expand on a current Pixel capability matching the iOS version of it.
Citing construction, downtown Noblesville business will close
The Velvet Plum Vintage & Consignment, a home decor and furniture consignment shop at 894 Logan St. in Noblesville, has announced it will close July 15, citing Embrace Downtown construction as the driving factor. The Embrace Downtown project began earlier this year to provide infrastructure a
Citing construction, downtown Noblesville business will close
The Velvet Plum Vintage & Consignment, a home decor and furniture consignment shop at 894 Logan St. in Noblesville, has announced it will close July 15, citing Embrace Downtown construction as the driving factor. The Embrace Downtown project began earlier this year to provide infrastructure a
Dear Abby | Mom's rekindling with abusive father feels like a betrayal
Dear Abby: I am estranged from my father and have been since I was 12. (I'm currently 26.) He was emotionally, psychologically and physically abusive to me, and cutting ties
Mo Salah moves closer to €80m contract deal
Following a poor campaign - both individually and collectively - the Egyptian King reached an agreement to rip up his £400k per week contract one year early.The 34-year-old is currently strutting his...
House Republican reacts to changing politics under Trump
Republican Rep. Dusty Johnson spoke to NBC News' Garrett Haake about his recent loss in the primary to become the governor of South Dakota, and how he feels about the current political environment under President Trump.
‘It’s a bad time to be a normal’: House Republican on current political environment
Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) reacts to President Trump's decision to cancel the signing of the bipartisan housing affordability bill. Rep. Johnson also discusses the president’s Iran strategy and the current political environment.
Civility advocates look for ways to restore 'Iowa Nice' to campaigns, public discourse
A group of former and current officeholders are looking to encourage civility by encouraging civic participation and civil interactions.
2027 iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e to Get 9GB RAM and A20 Chip
The lower-end iPhone 18 models set to launch in spring 2027 will feature 9GB DRAM, up from 8GB, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Kuo says the A20 chip Apple plans to use for the devices will have 1.5GB x 6 dies for a total of 9GB RAM, instead of 2GB x 4 dies as the current lower-end iPhone 17 models use. By lower-end iPhones, Kuo is likely referencing the iPhone 18 and the iPhone 18e, both of which are rumored to be coming around March or April of 2027.
Trump Administration Shut Down Climate Website, Former NOAA Employees Have Just Brought It Back
In June 2025, Climate.gov was shut down by an executive order that implied it did not meet the current administration's standards. Climate scientists have just brought the data back.
Apple's OLED 'MacBook Ultra' Will Stick With M5 Pro and M5 Max Chips
Apple's upcoming high-end MacBook model featuring an OLED touchscreen display will use the company's current M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The new, top-of-the-line device will launch "between late this year and early next year," Gurman said, adopting the existing high-end Apple silicon chips rather than next-generation M6 versions.
Apple’s Touch MacBook to Use M5 Pro and Max Chips, With M7 Models to Follow
Apple Inc.’s first-ever touch-screen laptop will rely on the company’s current high-end M5 chips, rather than next-generation silicon, though the company is working on a follow-up model with future M7 processors.
Nevada takes step toward becoming corporate litigation hub with business court pilot program
The Clark County District Court this week announced it has restructured its departments to include a dedicated business court. The restructuring is expected to bring down case adjudication times, and it could help an ongoing effort to transform Nevada into a premier destination for corporate litigation. Judges Maria Gall and Joe Hardy–Departments 9 and 15, […]
Commitment season looming as Ohio State staff awaits
The month of June has been a grind for Ohio State’s coaching staff. Position camps, recruiting visits, and still prioritizing their current roster, the Buckeyes have had zero time off… and that will soon change. Ryan Day and company set to be on vacation in the coming days for a well deserved break, that doesn’t […]
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
This Is Probably Your Last Chance to Buy a Cheap MacBook for a While
Apple has dramatically jacked up the price of MacBooks, making the current Prime Day pricing that much more enticing.
Baxter Health Heart and Vascular Clinic Welcomes Brandi Watson, APRN
Baxter Health is proud to welcome Brandi Watson, APRN, to the Baxter Health Heart and Vascular Clinic. Watson joined the team on May 15 and is currently accepting new patients. Watson brings more than 25 years of experience caring for some of the most critically ill patients. Much of her career has been spent in intensive care settings, where she learned to make fast, high-stakes decisions for patients whose lives depended on getting the right care at the right moment. That kind of experience, which is gained through years at the bedside, is exactly what heart and vascular patients need from a provider.
Evaluating the robustness and readiness of large frontier models in health AI applications
Nature Medicine - Adversarial evaluation of leading AI models uncovers gaps between benchmark success and robustness, highlighting limitations in current health AI benchmarks and their ability to...
New district leaders could take over Brooklyn Democratic Party
The current chair said she believes in "moving forward."
Kawhi Leonard Seeks Extension – But Not With Current Team
Kawhi Leonard has one year left on his current contract with the Los Angeles Clippers. He’s eligible to sign an extension this summer, and sounds like he’s willing to do get that done. The one caveat: The Clippers aren’t necessarily the team he wants to sign with. Leonard, who turns 35 on June 29, ...
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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David P. O'Brien
About five years ago, David P. O'Brien had a comfortable position at Marsh & McLennan Cos., where he held the top post at the financial giant's Louisville, Ky., office. Despite the lofty rank, Mr. O'Brien found himself longing to be at a smaller company that had to work a little harder to land business. That desire led him away from Kentucky five years ago and to Cleveland, where he serves as executive vice president at business insurance agency Oswald Cos. "I left Marsh before it was en vogue," he said, referring to layoffs and defections at Marsh over the course of this year that followed accusations of bid rigging at the big firm. Above all, Mr. O'Brien, 38, wanted to work at a company that relied on its inventiveness, rather than its name, for business. He said he has found that at Oswald. "It causes you to be more creative, to be more resourceful," Mr. O'Brien said. For instance, an Oswald client seeking to do business internationally might be directed to the network of offices abroad run by competitors such as Marsh and Aon Risk Services Inc. "We're going to use whatever access into the market that makes the most sense for our clients," he said. Of course, using such a strategy can be dangerous for Oswald if its client decides to further a business relationship with one of the firms Oswald recommended. "That's the obvious question and why it's nontraditional," he said. "I think if we're good, and if we're bringing value to the client, then there's no risk. I'm not threatened by it." Imaginative business solutions of that type made his career move to Oswald from Marsh worthwhile. "It's very much a challenge," he said. "It helps you keep your edge. I'm all for the competition." John Jacunski, currently vice president and corporate controller at York, Pa., paper company PH Gladfelter Co., met Mr. O'Brien four years ago when Mr. Jacunski was at WCI Steel Inc. in Warren. So impressed was he with Mr. O'Brien's work for WCI that Mr. Jacunski has retained the Oswald executive at PH Gladfelter. "He's a young guy for the position he has, but he's done a great job for us," Mr. Jacunski said. Among his roles at Oswald, Mr. O'Brien leads the firm's client retention efforts and also serves as director of its property and casualty group. "You don't have the same human resources," he said of the job jump to Oswald. "You don't have, obviously, the safety net a big company has." But sometimes, it can be difficult to ascertain individual contributions when working at a big company. "I wanted to be able to see the end results of my work and my efforts," Mr. O'Brien said.
How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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