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Wastewater release prompts health advisory for Eastern Lake in Santa Rosa Beach
Drinking water remains safe and is not affected by the advisory, according to the Florida Department of Health in Walton County (DOH-Walton).
Walmart’s Open Call event hosts 125 prospective suppliers
They came from 35 states and Puerto Rico, and filed into Sam Walton Hall on Walmart’s home office campus in Bentonville on Wednesday (Oct. 7). The hopeful suppliers toted luggage...
Arkansas Advocate on Ozarks at Large: Maternal health, Kentucky's governor and political debates
Arkansas Advocate Editor-in-Chief Andrew DeMillo joined Ozarks at Large Senior Producer Matthew Moore on KUAF this week to discuss recent grants for maternal health, Kentucky's governor rallying Democrats and the history of political debates.
Arkansas Advocate on Ozarks at Large: Maternal health, Kentucky's governor and political debates
Arkansas Advocate Editor-in-Chief Andrew DeMillo joined Ozarks at Large Senior Producer Matthew Moore on KUAF this week to discuss recent grants for maternal health, Kentucky's governor rallying Democrats and the history of political debates.
Arkansas will receive $10 million for maternal health
Olivia Walton announced her nonprofit will give $10M to Arkansas and $10M to Kentucky.
$100 million Healthy Moms, Healthy Babies America announces grants to Arkansas, Kentucky
Olivia Walton says maternal health is a solvable problem, with state governments "in the driver's seat."
Byron Donalds brings 'Defending the Florida Dream' tour to Overtown cookout
The Republican nominee's tour lands in Miami a month before the General Election.
Arkansas, Kentucky each awarded $10M grants for maternal health efforts
A nonprofit founded by philanthropist Olivia Walton announced Thursday it is awarding $10 million grants to Arkansas and Kentucky to improve maternal health in rural communities.
Federal agency sues Ohio-based Catholic health system over alleged antisemitism
The EEOC lawsuit states Dr. Ian Walton is
In 1980, His Business Became The Fastest Company In History To Reach $1 Billion In Sales. Today, His Heirs Sit On Top a $453 Billion Combined Fortune. Here’s How Sam Walton Built the Biggest Retail Empire in America’s History
Sam Walton opened a single discount store in rural Arkansas in 1962 with no obvious path to greatness. What he built in the decades that followed rewrote every assumption about how fast a retail empire could grow and how much wealth one family could accumulate.
Los Angeles Angels edge closer to franchise rock bottom
The Oakland Athletics defeated the Los Angeles Angels 7-3 on Wednesday night, powered by a three-run blast from Donovan Walton and a career-first four-hit game by rookie Henry Bolte.
Arkansas Advocate on Ozarks at Large: School grades, health campus, AI rules
Arkansas Advocate Editor-in-Chief Andrew DeMillo joined Ozarks at Large Senior Producer Matthew Moore on KUAF to discuss the latest grades for Arkansas schools, Alice Walton's healthcare campus plans and potential AI guardrails in Arkansas.
Homewood Science Center’s Walk Walton tickets on sale
Tickets are on sale for Homewood Science Center’s 2026 Walk Walton nature fest fundraiser on Oct. 18 at the Izaak Walton Preserve.
ENTERTAINMENT: ‘Our Art’ exhibit opening at Walton Arts Center
The regional art exhibition, which drew 659 submissions from 371 artists, remains up through Dec. 20.
Alice Walton Foundation, Mercy break ground on massive Bentonville health care campus
The project has its roots in recent efforts to address the number of NWA residents who leave the region for specialized treatment.
120-Acre Whole Health Campus Begins Taking Shape in Bentonville
The Alice L. Walton Foundation and Mercy have broken ground on a 120-plus-acre health care campus in Bentonville that aims to expand access
Groundbreaking held for $700 million AWSOM Whole Health Campus
It’s been seven years in the making, but the effort to bring specialty health care to Northwest Arkansas is one step closer to reality. Alice Walton was front and center...
Groundbreaking held for $700 million AWSOM Whole Health Campus
It’s been seven years in the making, but the effort to bring specialty health care to Northwest Arkansas is one step closer to reality. Alice Walton was front and center...
Alice Walton says Bentonville healthcare campus to expand Arkansans’ access to specialty care
A new Bentonville healthcare campus backed by billionaire philanthropist Alice Walton will increase Arkansans’ access to specialty care and a “whole person” approach to medicine, she said at a groundbreaking ceremony Thursday.
Marcus Freeman Pleased With The Development Of Notre Dame Underclassman
Freshman standout Jonaz Walton and a wave of emerging underclassmen are seizing their opportunities, blending elite speed with refined technique to bolster the Irish depth chart.
Askey unhappy with Truro City's 'worst performance'
Truro City manager John Askey says his side's 1-1 draw with Walton and Hersham was their "worst performance" of the season.
Olivia and Tom Walton pledge $100M for national campaign to cut maternal deaths
Philanthropists Olivia and Tom Walton announced Thursday they’re giving $100 million toward a national effort to cut maternal deaths in half.
Healthy Moms, Healthy Babies pledges $100M to cut US maternal mortality rate in half
Healthy Moms, Healthy Babies America, the bipartisan campaign founded by Olivia and Tom Walton’s nonprofit Heartland Forward, announced a $100 million pledge Thursday to make giving birth in the United States safer.
Walton: Mental health resources are economic infrastructure
Melissa Walton of the Oklahoma County Criminal Justice Advisory Council examines how behavioral health investments can support Oklahoma County's growth and workforce.
Rogers mixed-income community opens after $13 million investment
Three-story, 60-unit Olive Street Apartments recently opened at 700 N. 24th St. in Rogers. Roughly $13 million was invested in the attainable housing project, supported by the Walton Family Foundation....
Crypto CEO Chris Larsen Donates $500,000 to Support Political Moderate in Supervisors Race
The donation supports moderate Democrat Theo Ellington’s bid to replace progressive supervisor Shamann Walton in November.
For Sustained Soil and Water Health, Farmers Are ‘Playing the Long Game’
With the help of farmers like Kristin Duncanson, the AGree Coalition is proving that regenerative farming is key to a more resilient U.S. agriculture system
Walton siblings to make up Arkansas Business Hall of Fame class of 2027
The four children of Walmart Inc. founder Sam Walton will be inducted together next year into the Arkansas Business Hall of Fame.
Business hall of fame to induct Rob Walton, Alice Walton, Jim Walton, the late John Walton
The four children of Walmart founders Sam and Helen Walton — Rob Walton, Alice Walton, Jim Walton and the late John Walton – will be inducted into the Arkansas Business...
Cinco Bayou under another health advisory for high 'enterococcus' bacteria levels
FORT WALTON BEACH, Fla. -- The City of Fort Walton Beach has another bacteria problem in Cinco Bayou.
AWSOM grows to nearly 100 students
The Alice L. Walton School of Medicine (AWSOM) in Bentonville recently expanded to 96 students after welcoming its second class of 48 students in July. The medical school’s second cohort,...
Village Capital launches NWA investment facility
Washington, D.C.-based venture capital firm Village Capital recently launched a first-of-its-kind flexible investment facility supporting Northwest Arkansas-based startups. The Walton Family Foundation provided $700,000 to support the VilCap Innovative Capital...
Village Capital launches NWA investment facility
Washington, D.C.-based venture capital firm Village Capital recently launched a first-of-its-kind flexible investment facility supporting Northwest Arkansas-based startups. The Walton Family Foundation provided $700,000 to support the VilCap Innovative Capital...
Healthy advisory issued for Cinco Bayou in Fort Walton Beach due to bacteria levels
OKALOOSA COUNTY, Fla. -- The Florida Department of Health in Okaloosa County has issued a health advisory for Cinco Bayou in Fort Walton Beach.Drinking water i
How Medicaid fraud could affect your tax dollars and health care
Local 12 WKRC-TV is the local station for breaking news, weather forecasts, traffic alerts, community news, Cincinnati Bengals, Reds and FC Cincinnati sports updates, and CBS programming for the Cincinnati , Ohio area, including Avondale, Blue Ash, Bond Hill, Camp Washington, Cheviot, Cleves, Colerain Township, Columbia-Tusculum, Corryville, Norwood, Delhi, East Price Hill, Golf Manor, Hyde Park, Lebanon, Loveland, Lower Price Hill, Madeira, Mariemont, Mount Adams, Mount Airy, Mount Healthy, Mount Lookout, Mount Washington, Oakley, Over-The-Rhine, Reading, Sedamsville, Sharonville, Springdale, St. Bernard, South Cumminsville, Symmes Township, Mason, Hamilton, Union Township, Walnut Hills, West Chester, Wyoming, West Price Hill, Westwood, Winton Hills, Alexandria, Bellevue, Covington, Crescent Springs, Erlanger, Fort Mitchell, Fort Thomas, Fort Wright, Florence, Hebron, Highland Heights, Newport, Southgate, Villa Hills, Walton, Aurora, Greendale, and Lawrenceburg.
Owners of West Side restaurant and entertainment spot announce plans to sell
Local 12 WKRC-TV is the local station for breaking news, weather forecasts, traffic alerts, community news, Cincinnati Bengals, Reds and FC Cincinnati sports updates, and CBS programming for the Cincinnati , Ohio area, including Avondale, Blue Ash, Bond Hill, Camp Washington, Cheviot, Cleves, Colerain Township, Columbia-Tusculum, Corryville, Norwood, Delhi, East Price Hill, Golf Manor, Hyde Park, Lebanon, Loveland, Lower Price Hill, Madeira, Mariemont, Mount Adams, Mount Airy, Mount Healthy, Mount Lookout, Mount Washington, Oakley, Over-The-Rhine, Reading, Sedamsville, Sharonville, Springdale, St. Bernard, South Cumminsville, Symmes Township, Mason, Hamilton, Union Township, Walnut Hills, West Chester, Wyoming, West Price Hill, Westwood, Winton Hills, Alexandria, Bellevue, Covington, Crescent Springs, Erlanger, Fort Mitchell, Fort Thomas, Fort Wright, Florence, Hebron, Highland Heights, Newport, Southgate, Villa Hills, Walton, Aurora, Greendale, and Lawrenceburg.
Mercy Health expands maternity care by connecting patients with midwives
Local 12 WKRC-TV is the local station for breaking news, weather forecasts, traffic alerts, community news, Cincinnati Bengals, Reds and FC Cincinnati sports updates, and CBS programming for the Cincinnati , Ohio area, including Avondale, Blue Ash, Bond Hill, Camp Washington, Cheviot, Cleves, Colerain Township, Columbia-Tusculum, Corryville, Norwood, Delhi, East Price Hill, Golf Manor, Hyde Park, Lebanon, Loveland, Lower Price Hill, Madeira, Mariemont, Mount Adams, Mount Airy, Mount Healthy, Mount Lookout, Mount Washington, Oakley, Over-The-Rhine, Reading, Sedamsville, Sharonville, Springdale, St. Bernard, South Cumminsville, Symmes Township, Mason, Hamilton, Union Township, Walnut Hills, West Chester, Wyoming, West Price Hill, Westwood, Winton Hills, Alexandria, Bellevue, Covington, Crescent Springs, Erlanger, Fort Mitchell, Fort Thomas, Fort Wright, Florence, Hebron, Highland Heights, Newport, Southgate, Villa Hills, Walton, Aurora, Greendale, and Lawrenceburg.
Connections: Medical school, Washington Regional announce new hires
Several new hires in the Northwest Arkansas medical field were recently announced, including a new associate dean at the Alice L. Walton School of Medicine, and advanced practice registered nurses...
ENTERTAINMENT: ‘Moulin Rouge! The Musical’ onstage at WAC
A touring company brings “Moulin Rouge! The Musical” (a jukebox musical featuring tunes from Jacques Offenbach to Lady Gaga with a book by John Logan, based on Baz Luhrmann’s 2001 film) to Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center.
Olivia Wilde says Walton Goggins 'saved my life' after horse accident
Olivia Wilde recalled the moment her "Cowboys & Aliens" costar Walton Goggins "saved my life" after a horse accident on the set of the 2011 sci-fi Western. "I've ridden horses
Walton Arts Center to host blood drive with free entertainment July 1
The Walton Arts Center will host a blood drive in partnership with the American Red Cross from 10 a.m. until 4 p.m. on Wednesday, July 1. The center will provide live entertainment for blood donors in attendance that day, including performances by cellist Carrington Truehart, and guitarists Ben Harris and William Reyes. SUBSCRIBE: Get our
ENTERTAINMENT: Fayetteville art exhibit seeks entries; book festival names ‘headliner’
Aug. 10 is the deadline for Northwest Arkansas visual artists to submit works to Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center for the sixth annual “Our Art, Our Region, Our Time” group art exhibition.
'We completely left' | They moved to NKY for their child's health, but the home they found made them all sick
After moving from Texas so their daughter could receive specialized treatment at Cincinnati Children’s, the Gilkey family says toxic mold in their Walton home made the entire family sick.
NWA Women in Business: Amanda Tolley-Holloway
Residence: Bentonville Education: B.S.B.A., business management, 2004, Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas Professional background: In her existing role, Tolley-Holloway works in Tyson Foods’ Prepared Foods business,...
I'm 40 and looking forward to being 80
Megan Walton, 40, has been the CEO of a large senior services organization for seven years. The job has radically changed her attitude toward aging.
Chasing Storms for Science
Storm chasers Jen Walton and Anastasia Tomanek, of Girls Who Chase, work with the Doppler On Wheels team to pursue the secrets of tornadoes and hailstorms.
Several vehicles damaged as fire spreads to Tri-State business
Local 12 WKRC-TV is the local station for breaking news, weather forecasts, traffic alerts, community news, Cincinnati Bengals, Reds and FC Cincinnati sports updates, and CBS programming for the Cincinnati , Ohio area, including Avondale, Blue Ash, Bond Hill, Camp Washington, Cheviot, Cleves, Colerain Township, Columbia-Tusculum, Corryville, Norwood, Delhi, East Price Hill, Golf Manor, Hyde Park, Lebanon, Loveland, Lower Price Hill, Madeira, Mariemont, Mount Adams, Mount Airy, Mount Healthy, Mount Lookout, Mount Washington, Oakley, Over-The-Rhine, Reading, Sedamsville, Sharonville, Springdale, St. Bernard, South Cumminsville, Symmes Township, Mason, Hamilton, Union Township, Walnut Hills, West Chester, Wyoming, West Price Hill, Westwood, Winton Hills, Alexandria, Bellevue, Covington, Crescent Springs, Erlanger, Fort Mitchell, Fort Thomas, Fort Wright, Florence, Hebron, Highland Heights, Newport, Southgate, Villa Hills, Walton, Aurora, Greendale, and Lawrenceburg.
Business People
Dr. Jacquelyn Paykel has been named assistant dean of whole health education at the Alice L. Walton School of Medicine.
Richard Thomas Reveals Who He Still Speaks to From ‘The Waltons’
The actor played John-Boy Walton in the iconic series.
Richard Thomas Reveals Who He Still Speaks to From ‘The Waltons’
The actor played John-Boy Walton in the iconic series.
Chelsea State Bank Grows Business Lending Services
Airdate: May 21st, 2026 Baseball D2 Districts Northwest vs Western, 5-26-26 | Photo GalleryMay 26, 2026Softball D2 Districts Williamston vs Western, 5-26-26 | Photo GalleryMay 26, 20262026 Selby Track & Field Classic ResultsMay 26, 2026End of Year Report with Napoleon Superintendent Pat DillonMay 26, 2026Chelsea State Bank Grows Business Lending ServicesMay 26, 2026Walton Insurance Group…
‘It has to be bipartisan’: Governors find solutions on maternal health
Gov. Wes Moore (D-Md.), Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R-Ark.) and philanthropist Olivia Walton join Meet the Press for a Common Ground conversation around maternal health.
Taphouse on Walton owner sues city for lost revenue in entertainment license dispute
Taphouse has not be able to host any events, entertainment, live music or DJs for over a year, which Randall Hon said is hurting his business.
Taphouse on Walton owner sues city for lost revenue in entertainment license dispute
Taphouse has not be able to host any events, entertainment, live music or DJs for over a year, which Randall Hon said is hurting his business.
The Green Sports Alliance honors Jason Collins as the inaugural winner of the Bill Walton Global Champion Award
/PRNewswire/ -- Today, at the 2026 Green Sports Alliance Summit in Cleveland, Ohio, the first Bill Walton Global Champion Award was conferred to Jason Collins,...
Genneya Walton Signs With Strand Entertainment (EXCLUSIVE)
Genneya Walton has inked with Strand Entertainment for management, Deadline can report exclusively.
ENTERTAINMENT: Artosphere Festival celebrates art, nature of the region; other Walton Arts Center events set for May
Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center’s Artosphere: Arkansas’ Arts + Nature Festival continues through May 19, featuring a mix of free and low-cost events, performances and workshops throughout Northwest Arkansas celebrating art, music and nature while spotlighting artists and performers from around the region.
MIRAMAR BEACH BUSINESS OWNER ARRESTED FOR BATTERY AND OPERATING AS A MASSAGE THERAPIST WITHOUT A LICENSE
WALTON COUNTY, FLA— The owner of a massage practice in Miramar Beach is facing criminal charges for a second time after a victim reported being inappropriately touched during a massage. This...
ENTERTAINMENT: Youth jazz ensemble to bring concert to WAC
The Northwest Arkansas Jazz Society’s All-Star Youth Ensemble makes its 10th-season debut with guest “star” jazz saxophonist Adam Larson, 6:30 p.m. Wednesday at Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center.
ENTERTAINMENT: Youth jazz ensemble to bring concert to WAC
The Northwest Arkansas Jazz Society’s All-Star Youth Ensemble makes its 10th-season debut with guest “star” jazz saxophonist Adam Larson, 6:30 p.m. Wednesday at Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center.
'The Handyman of West Texas' Optioned by The Hideaway Entertainment
Johnathan Walton's true-crime podcast 'The Handyman of West Texas' will be developed for the screen by The Hideaway Entertainment.
The Hideaway Entertainment Options Johnathan Walton’s True-Crime Podcast ‘The Handyman of West Texas’
Johnathan Walton Media has struck a deal with The Hideaway Entertainment to develop his latest true-crime podcast, “The Handyman of West Texas,” for the screen. Walton is a popular true-crime podcast ...
ENTERTAINMENT: ‘Chocolate’ in Argenta; ‘Mamma Mia!’ at WAC
Following a six-month revival run on Broadway, the 25th anniversary tour of “Mamma Mia!” is onstage this week for eight performances at Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center.
Business People
Ann Bordelon is joining the planned STEM university backed by members of the Walton family as vice president of finance and administration.
ENTERTAINMENT: WAC hosts Australian Chamber Orchestra
The Australian Chamber Orchestra is premiering “Horizon,” a new work it commissioned from Pulitzer- and Grammy-winning composer John Luther Adams, on its current tour. It includes an 8 p.m. concert Saturday at Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Denver Buddies: Rockies Bring Broncos Owners in as Minority Partners
The Colorado Rockies are bringing in Denver Broncos owners Greg and Carrie Walton Penner through a minority investment.
Penner Sports Group becomes largest minority owner of MLB's Colorado Rockies
Broncos owners Carrie Walton Penner and Greg Penner are expanding their footprint in Denver sports.
Why REI treats CX as a critical business function
The outdoor retailer is focused on doubling down on its differentiators, REI’s Clay Walton-House said. That means investing in its elevated services and member experience.
ENTERTAINMENT: Walton Arts Center’s lineup features 5 Broadway shows
Season subscribers will also “be the first in line to guarantee your seats for the Northwest Arkansas debut of ‘Wicked,’” already on the schedule for the 2027-’28 season.
Olivia Walton: States should lead on maternal health crisis
Heartland Forward is rolling out state-level roadmaps.
The Richest Owner in U.S. Sports Quietly Expanded His Sports Empire
Rob Walton, who also owns the Denver Broncos, wrote a nine-figure check for a 10% piece of the Arizona Diamondbacks two years ago.
Women’s Sports Student-Athletes to Host National Girls and Women’s in Sports Day Clinic
This free clinic is open to girls ages 5–12 and will take place from 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at the Basketball Performance Center, located directly across the street from Bud Walton Arena.
Science meets spirits at Emerald Coast Science Center fundraiser Feb. 28 in Fort Walton Beach
The Emerald Coast Science Center blends cocktails with chemistry for an adults-only evening of education and entertainment.
Delgado picks India Walton as running mate in governor's race
Walton ran for Buffalo mayor in 2021, winning the Democratic primary before falling short in the general election.
India Walton Will Return to Politics to Oppose Hochul as Delgado’s No. 2
Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado’s choice of Ms. Walton may strengthen his bid to position himself as a left-leaning alternative to Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York.
RxUtility and Buzz Health Partner to Boost Medication Price Transparency for Consumers
NASHVILLE, Tenn. & FORT WALTON BEACH, Fla., February 03, 2026--RxUtility, a medication affordability toolkit, announced a partnership with Buzz Health, leveraging its RxCompare multi-discount card pricing API.
Theo Rossi, Mario Van Peebles & Derek Wilson Sink Teeth Into WeBros’ Vampire Island Thriller ‘Young Blood’
EXCLUSIVE: Theo Rossi, Mario Van Peebles and Derek Wilson are headlining the Ari Schlossberg directed and written vampire island feature Young Blood currently shooting in Key Largo, Florida. The trio join previously announced Myles Truitt, Madison Wolfe, Marley Aliah, Genneya Walton, Alex Aiono and Mitchell Hoog in the WeBros Entertainment production. Young Blood follows three college best friends who …
A health-care destination
There has been plenty of activity on the Crystal Bridges campus in Bentonville with the expansion of Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art, along with the opening last year of buildings housing the Alice L. Walton School of Medicine and Heartland Whole Health Institute. Two miles east of downtown Bentonville, there's a separate 100-acre campus that might prove just as exciting.
ENTERTAINMENT: ‘Mean Girls,’ ‘Mark Twain’ on stages in LR, Fayetteville
Emmy Award-winning actor Richard Thomas portrays American writer and humorist Mark Twain in the one-man show "Mark Twain Tonight!," 8 p.m. Friday at Fayetteville's Walton Arts Center
With sextortion and suicides on the rise, Jimmy Patronis seeks to strip Big Tech of Section 230 immunity
The Fort Walton Beach Republican says it's time to empower parents to hold social media companies accountable.
ENTERTAINMENT: Comedy starts year at Murry’s; ‘Music Man’ in Fayetteville
Big League Productions brings its national tour of Meredith Willson's "The Music Man" to Fayetteville's Walton Arts Center 7:30 p.m. Friday, 2 and 7:30 p.m. Saturday and 2 p.m. Jan. 18.
ENTERTAINMENT: Repertory Theatre celebrates Christmas season
Little Rock's Arkansas Repertory Theatre celebrates the Christmas season with "Holiday Radio, Live at The Rep" and the Second North American tour production of the musical "Mrs. Doubtfire" sweeps the Baum Walker Hall stage at Fayetteville's Walton Arts Center.
Walton family fortune: How American's richest family manages their wealth
America's richest family uses a model pioneered by the Rockefellers to manage their wealth.