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Travel industry worries after Trump administration reiterates threat to sanctuary city airports
The travel industry is on edge after Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin reiterated his threat to withdraw U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers from airports in so-called “sanctuary cities” in a move that could jeopardize international flights.
Politics chat: How much faith can you have in the country's election systems?
President Trump and Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin make claims about the vulnerability of election systems in the U.S., but how true are those claims?
The Education of Markwayne Mullin
How Markwayne Mullin went from Indian Country to Trump’s immigration enforcer
Comedians react to GOP senator’s comment during Mullin’s confirmation hearing
Big News For Next Year’s Duke Roster
Boozer starred down the stretch for the Duke men's basketball team but a costly turnover led to UConn's Brayden Mullins hitting a buzzer-beater to eliminate the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight.
Trump's DHS pick Markwayne Mullin is confronted by Rand Paul at Senate hearing
Paul, the committee chairman, used his opening statement to confront Mullin, who once said he understood why Paul was physically assaulted, over "anger issues."
Rep. Al Green tells Homeland Security Sec. Mullin to 'shut up' after calling him a racist at hearing
Rep. Al Green called Homeland Security Sec. Markwayne Mullin a racist during a House committee meeting on funding and repeatedly told him to shut up.
Trump's DHS pick Mullin advances by one vote after Sen. Fetterman votes yes
Republican Sen. Rand Paul opposed Mullin, but Democratic Sen. John Fetterman crossed the aisle to rescue the nominee, who was approved by a one-vote margin.
Could Markwayne Mullin’s tenure at DHS change the agency?
Homeland Security and ICE were heavily scrutinized during Kristi Noem’s term
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin refuses to commit to following court orders
Mullin faced the Senate Appropriations committee amid scrutiny over the agency's budget and immigration enforcement ahead of the World Cup.
WATCH: Sen. Paul asks DHS nominee Mullin if he believes violence can resolve political differences
‘Nobody trusts him’: Rep. Goldman claims Stephen Miller runs DHS and questions if Markwayne Mullin will stand up to him
All ICE agents in the field expected to have body cameras by the end of September, Mullin says
Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in the field are expected to have body cameras by the end of September, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said at a press conference in New York Tuesday.
Report: Nintendo mulling Switch 2 OLED with Samsung Display panel
But it's not coming any time soon.
WATCH LIVE: Senate expected to vote on DHS secretary confirmation for Mullin
Dean Cain discusses stark contrast in patriotism among political parties
Actor Dean Cain joins 'Fox News Live' from the Great American State Fair in Washington, D.C., to share his take on patriotism and a tense border hearing with DHS Secretary Mullin.
Potential Democratic 2028 Candidates Condemn Trump’s ‘War of Choice’ in Iran
At a convention in New York, several Democrats mulling presidential bids rallied around opposition to President Trump’s decision to attack Iran.
Mullin’s Smooth Confirmation Was a Throwback in the Senate
In choosing Senator Markwayne Mullin, who has warm relationships across the Capitol and the political aisle, President Trump was reverting to a bygone tradition.
DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin reacts to video showing ICE officer punching teenager after altercation
One 'freaking snake' and no apologies: How the Mullin hearing went off the rails
Senator Rand Paul has made it clear he has little regard for President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Department of Homeland Security, fellow Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin. So the...
Trump administration proposes six-figure price tag for new H-1B visas
The Department of Homeland Security proposed making the $103,265 H-1B visa fee permanent after a federal judge blocked the temporary charge.
Mullin plan to punish sanctuary jurisdictions by targeting their airports faces fierce headwinds
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin is getting pushback for his idea to pull resources from airports in sanctuary jurisdictions.
Trump officials exchange barbs with Gov. Hochul, Mayor Mamdani
At dueling press conferences, Hochul and Mamdani traded accusations with Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.
Hometown Health: Virginia teacher continues career through virtual academy after MS diagnosis
Suzy Mullins spent years not knowing what was happening to her body
Border Patrol chief Michael Banks resigns his position
US Border Patrol Chief Michael Banks told CNN Thursday he was stepping down from his post, effective immediately, marking the latest senior immigration official to leave the Department of Homeland Security since Secretary Markwayne Mullin stepped into the top job.
Fox Pulls Back From Live-Action Comedies, Seeks Viable Business Model
Fox is "taking a step back" from live-action comedies while mulling a viable business model with modest license fees.
DHS Secy. nominee Mullin declines to share details of 2016 trip because it’s ‘classified’
Report: New York Giants considering release of WR Darius Slayton
The New York Giants are reportedly mulling over the idea of releasing WR Darius Slayton, the team's longest-tenured player.
ICE shooting renews questions over equipping officers with body cameras
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said every ICE field officer will have a body camera by the end of September.
Rep. Kevin Hern wins Oklahoma GOP nomination for U.S. Senate, governor's race heads to runoff
The primary had Republicans picking their preferred successor to outgoing Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt and a nominee for the Senate seat once held by Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.
Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons to step down from agency
Acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Todd Lyons is stepping down from his role later this spring, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin announced Thursday.
Markwayne Mullin goes off on Dems’ 'garbage' Memorial Day ‘political stunt’ at ICE facility
Mullin rips Sen. Booker, Gov. Sherrill and NJ Democrats over Memorial Day ICE facility clash, calling their demands for access a political stunt.
WATCH LIVE: Mullin holds news conference on election security after Trump's address to the nation
Pulling Customs From ‘Sanctuary’ City Airports Would Cause Chaos, Business Groups Say
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin’s proposal could block hubs like Boston, New York and Los Angeles from accepting international flights.
DHS wants to block airlines from sanctuary cities. Experts say it would be chaos.
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has a plan to punish cities that don’t enforce federal immigration policies
GOP senators rally around new DHS proposal targeting sanctuary cities: 'Should pay a price'
Republican senators signal support for pulling CBP officers from sanctuary city airports as Mullin says the proposal is still actively being considered.
Braylon Mullins is back: UConn G whose epic 3-pointer beat Duke in Elite Eight returning for sophomore season
Dan Hurley keeps another key piece, which should again give UConn a chance to be among college basketball's best teams
‘Outside Mullingar’ to kick off Opera House summer season
A romantic comedy set on a farm in Ireland will open Opera House Arts’ summer season at the Stonington Opera House on two long weekends from June 17-28.
Sen Markwayne Mullin is ‘in politics for all the right reasons,’ former NSC chief of staff
Former White House NSC chief of staff Alex Gray and Axiom Strategies’ Erin Maguire discuss the confirmation hearing for DHS Secretary hopeful Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., on ‘Fox News @ Night.’
Video: Senate Confirms Markwayne Mullin as Homeland Security Secretary
The Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin to take over the Homeland Security Department in a 54-to-45 vote on Monday.
Trump immigration officials seek to mend frayed ties with business as arrests spike
Under new DHS chief Markwayne Mullin, officials met for the first time with trade groups concerned about losing workers to the president’s deportation campaign.
Arsenal Mulling Move For Real Madrid, Brazil Star Vinícius Júnior
Arsenal have emerged as shock contenders to land Real Madrid superstar Vinicius Junior as his contract stand-off at the Santiago Bernabeu continues.
Can researchers trust that AI models won’t leak their ideas?
Research funders are asking how they can stop confidential scientific ideas in grant proposals from leaking out through large language models (LLMs), for example if reviewers use AI to help them judge applications. Last week, a row erupted in mathematics after OpenAI announced it had solved a notoriously difficult problem, only for another mathematician to demand answers over whether the company had used ideas he had fed into its models. The spat, and the broader issue of idea leakage through AI models, was discussed by funders at an R&D policy conference held in Paris on September 14. At worst, it threatens to undermine the correct attribution of breakthroughs, one of the foundations of modern science. The mathematics dispute around OpenAI is “certainly something we're looking at” Jason Gallo, head of the newly established Office of Metascience at the US National Science Foundation (NSF), told the Blue Sky Forum, hosted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The controversy started on September 8, when OpenAI announced it had cracked a mathematical problem that had gone unsolved for 90 years. Using a swarm of AI agents, millions of dollars’ worth of computing power and a new internal model, the company said it had finally proved that a long-used formula for modelling fluid dynamics breaks down under certain conditions. However, Tristan Buckmaster, a New York University mathematician who had been independently working with collaborators on the same problem using OpenAI’s Codex tool, hit back with a statement questioning whether the company had snooped on his Codex sessions to gain an advantage. OpenAI has always denied it looked up the “specific user data” of Buckmaster and colleagues. However, the company initially admitted that “while unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models,” although its proofs “differ significantly” from Buckmaster’s. The firm later said that, following an investigation, it concluded that Buckmaster’s Codex prompts “could not have influenced the [OpenAI] system in any way, including through training.”Funder concernYet OpenAI’s initial admission that its model might have ingested Buckmaster’s ideas, then spat them out to its own mathematicians, has scientistsworriedthat their work could leak out if shared with AI. Some AI tools give users an opt-out option to stop their sessions from training the model. If such guarantees can be trusted, this gives scientists some confidence they can use an LLM to develop an idea without the risk of it leaking out.But there’s a bigger potential vulnerability. To win money to investigate ideas, scientists have to share them with funding bodies. These grant proposals are normally kept strictly confidential, to prevent other scientists from scooping them, or to protect commercially valuable intellectual property. To preserve this confidentiality, when the NSF uses AI models, “we have to be sure that it's not making server calls out to an external party, leaking that data,” said Gallo to delegates in Paris. Leaks through reviewersHowever, funders normally use external academic reviewers to assess proposals. And there are growing worries that these reviewers are feeding grant ideas into AI models to help them make a judgement. Research funders have noticed that peer review reports and funding recommendations have “suddenly become much longer, more detailed and complex,” said Diogo Machado, head of the data science unit at Technopolis, a science and technology-focused consultancy. “The sense is that reviewers are increasingly using generative AI in their review work, even where guidelines sometimes forbid it,” he told Science|Business. “This is very difficult for funders to control or prove.” Happening at scaleThis sharing of confidential proposals with AI models is “happening at scale already,” said James Wilson, executive director of the Research on Research Institute, based at University College London, during the debate in Paris. In response, Gallo said the NSF had “strict guidance” around the uploading of proposals to AI models. But he added the NSF was mulling new types of assessment to make sure applicants were truly the originators of their ideas, such as following a short-form proposal with an oral presentation, which would allow the foundation to “really interrogate the investigator on their intellectual contribution.” Related articlesHow can Europe cope with a flood of AI-assisted research grant proposals?The risks and benefits of AI in screening research grant proposals Viewpoint: AI could make scientific overload worse“For us as funders, a lot of the ways to ensure that the application remains the applicant's own intellectual contribution, those ways are quite regressive,” Peter Clifford, head of strategy at Research Ireland, told delegates. “They're maybe ten or 15 or 20 years old, and they don't scale particularly well.” Disputes over the origin of ideas are as old as modern science. Isaac Newton and Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz spent more than a decade arguing over who invented calculus, for example. And long before LLMs emerged, academics would agonise over how much of their early work to reveal at conferences, in case their colleagues scooped them, Jack Leahy, a senior metascience advisor to the UK government, told delegates. But AI was “accelerating” the “problems of the system,” he said.
Rand Paul confronts Markwayne Mullin over past rhetoric at Senate hearing
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., confronted Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., for his past comments saying he "completely understood" why Paul had been physically assaulted and questioned if "someone who applauds violence against their political opponents" is the right person to lead the Department of Homeland Security.
Paul Questions Mullin’s Character Over Response to Attack by Neighbor
Senator Rand Paul was assaulted in 2017. Markwayne Mullin acknowledged that he once said he understood the reason for the attack, but did not apologize.
UConn completes comeback on a prayer 3 to knock off Duke, head to Final Four
UConn overcame a 19-point deficit to knock off Duke in the Elite 8 and advance to the Final Four as Braylon Mullins' last-second deep 3 won the game.
Homeland Security’s Plan to Strong-Arm ‘Sanctuary’ Cities
DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin told travel executives he may target airports in cities that don’t help ICE.
EXCLUSIVE: DHS Secretary Mullin slams sanctuary politicians as attacks on ICE officers skyrocket
Assaults against ICE officers surged 1,649% since Trump took office, with DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin blaming sanctuary politicians and anti-ICE riots.
Oklahoma’s governor picks energy executive Alan Armstrong to fill US Senate seat through end of year
Oklahoma’s governor on Tuesday appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong to serve in the US Senate through the end of the year and finish the term of Republican Markwayne Mullin, the new homeland security secretary.
Mullins expecting another stern test against Tranmere
Newport County manager Hayden Mullins expects another demanding afternoon when his side host Tranmere Rovers on Saturday
Chuck Edwards sells McDonald’s franchises amid tight congressional race
The North Carolina U.S. member of Congress and his wife transferred their franchises to Asheville operators Christine and Chris Nevant.
Markwayne Mullin Lost His Pick to Lead ICE, as He Struggles to Prove His Toughness on Immigration
Markwayne Mullin is working to overcome hard-liners’ doubts about his leadership, his position undermined by missteps with the White House.
I apologize, Cedric Mullins: Rays 5, Royals 2
If you would’ve told me the Rays would convincingly sweep a team on the road two weeks ago after what I saw in person at Dodger Stadium, I’d hedge your bet. The Rays, on their first west coast swing of the season, went 1-5 and lost three straight games in one-run fashion. and in the […]
Markwayne Mullin confirmed to lead Department of Homeland Security
The Oklahoma Republican faced a glide path to confirmation with the help of two Democratic senators.
Mullin pledges progress on disaster relief during his first official trip
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin toured North Carolina areas devastated by Hurricane Helene in 2024.
US adversaries using the 'political theater' Democrats created as a point of weakness: DHS Secretary Mullin
DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin discusses Chinese infiltration efforts in the United States and DHS funding issues on 'The Story.'
White House says funds to pay TSA and other Homeland Security workers will 'soon run out'
In a memo late Tuesday to lawmakers, the Office of Management and Budget said money that President Donald Trump tapped to pay Transportation Security Administration and other workers through executive actions will be exhausted by May
In Oklahoma, Alan Armstrong Will Fill Markwayne Mullin’s Senate Seat
Gov. Kevin Stitt selected Mr. Armstrong, a fellow Republican and an energy executive, to play a caretaker role in the seat until the next election.
Duke's Cayden Boozer returning for sophomore season
Boozer starred down the stretch for the Duke men's basketball team but a costly turnover led to UConn's Brayden Mullins hitting a buzzer-beater to eliminate the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight.
College basketball rankings: Why UConn is moving up in preseason way-too-early Top 25 And 1
Braylon Mullins is heading back to the Huskies and Duke's Nikolas Khamenia has committed to UConn coach Dan Hurley
Trump’s New Grift Is His Most Brazen … Ever?
The administration is mulling a plan for a massive taxpayer-funded slush fund for Trump’s closest allies.
Gwengwe asks to play up front after fast start
Newport County boss Hayden Mullins has revealed Shaquille Gwengwe jokingly asked to play up front after scoring his third and fourth goals of the season. Gwengwe, who netted 46 non-league goals in the past season, scored his first County brace as they drew 2-2 with Tranmere Rovers on Saturday. The 25-year-old has been deployed on the left wing for the Exiles so far this season, but would prefer to start in his more natural striker position.
Red Sox Minor Lines: Hayden Mullins strikes out ten
Worcester: PPD, Make-Up Friday This game was called quite early in the day due to inclement weather in Buffalo (Blue Jays AAA.) It will be played as part of a double-header Friday, with first pitch at 4:05. Portland: L, 5-4 (F/10) (BOX SCORE) The Sea Dogs got walked off in Chesapeake (Orioles AA) after letting […]
Readers Write: The size of the Legislature, Markwayne Mullin, voter ID, science fiction
Expand the Minnesota House by one? Think bigger.
Viola Station 106: The international break pause
Tito and Producer Mike take the opportunity for a deep breath before mulling over Vanoli 2: Look Who’s Vanoling Now.
JB Pritzker flexes his political muscle: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Tulsi Gabbard and Markwayne Mullin in the hot seat.
DHS pauses new immigrant warehouse purchases as all Noem-era contracts are reviewed
The new Homeland Security Secretary, Markwayne Mullin, was sworn in last week to lead a department that was steeped in controversy during Kristi Noem's tenure but also central to President Trump's mass deportation agenda.
Galaxy S27 To Become Much Snappier Next Year, And It Won’t Be Because Of The Industry’s First 2nm Chipsets
Samsung is rumored to mulling an upgrade for some Galaxy S27 models that will make them much snappier and response than previous launches
Analysis | What to know about Trump’s Homeland Security pick
Sen. Markwayne Mullin isn’t backing down from mass deportations.
Deadline Looms For Healthcare Providers To Improve Accessibility
New rules mandating greater disability access in healthcare are about to take effect, but recent actions suggest that federal officials may be mulling a delay.
Phillies' Bryce Harper Mulling Exciting Decision for All-Star Week
Bryce Harper, playing in front of his home fans, may not only be participating in the All-Star Game this year.
Tension between Mullin and White House appears to be growing, sources say
President Donald Trump brought in Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin to lead a department at the forefront of his signature domestic policy.
Trump Administration Expected to Tap Longtime ICE Official to Lead Agency
David Venturella’s expected appointment is in line with a push by Markwayne Mullin, the homeland security secretary, to keep his department under the radar and out of headlines.
New Jersey senator dares DHS to pepper-spray him again as Mullin slams 'political theater'
Sen. Andy Kim and DHS Secretary Mullin trade accusations over chaotic protests and pepper-ball spray incident at Newark's Delaney Hall facility.
Supreme Court allows Trump administration to use expanded database for potential voter purges
Critics have said the data could lead to U.S. citizens being kicked off the voter rolls, but the justices noted the law prohibits broad voter purges in the weeks leading up to an election.
Energy executive Alan Armstrong picked to fill Mullin's Senate seat through end of year
The choice by Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, who had pledged to pick a “conservative voice” to fill Mullin's seat, elevates to the Senate the chairman and former CEO of Williams Companies, a major pipeline operator based in Tulsa.
Trump officials touted a voter fraud bombshell. Their data hasn’t proved it
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin stood before the cameras last month and announced what he cast as a bombshell.
Kansas state employees could lose Blue Cross Blue Shield health insurance in cost-saving move
State decision-makers are mulling whether to drop Blue Cross Blue Shield of Kansas from the state employee health insurance plan.
US cybersecurity agency releases election infrastructure plan
NEW YORK (AP) — The nation’s cybersecurity agency on Thursday released an election infrastructure security plan 40 days before November’s midterms, laying out potential threats to election systems and listing services it would offer to election officials to protect the vote. The plan, which Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin had originally promised to release by […]
Markwayne Mullin confirmed to lead a DHS in turmoil
Markwayne Mullin will serve as Donald Trump’s next Department of Homeland Security secretary, elevating the US senator to helm the agency at the center of the president’s controversial immigration enforcement effort and an ongoing shutdown.
How Trump chose a former Oklahoma state trooper to lead ICE — and handed Markwayne Mullin a win
After an occasionally rocky start in his new post, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin won an internal debate when President Donald Trump announced he was nominating Lance Schroyer, a former Oklahoma state trooper, to lead Immigration and Customs Enforcement, five sources familiar with the dynamic told CNN.
Dickenson County Fair announces four days of family fun, music and entertainment Sept. 16-19
by ROD MULLINSmedia.rodmullins@gmail.com HAYSI, Va. — The Dickenson County Fair is set to return to the Haysi Fairgrounds Sept. 16-19, bringing four days of family entertainment, live music, rides, community activities and outstanding regional talent to Southwest Virginia. This year’s fair promises something for every age group, from gospel music and bluegrass to country music, children’s activities and a showcase of local talent. The fair kicks off Wednesday, Sept. 16, with Dickenson Sings Gospel, a special evening celebrating faith, fellowship and music. Several gospel groups from throughout the region will take the stage, providing an evening of inspirational music and community worship. […]
Good science requires much more than evidence
Empiricists believe that scientific theories are true only if they make correct empirical predictions: if we can't verify these predictions, then there is no reason to expect that they tell us anything about reality. However, Professor of Philosophy at King's College David Kyle Johnson argues that this is mistaken. In response to Bas van Fraassen, who has written on this subject for the IAI, he argues that we have many reasons for believing a theory to be true, such as it being parsimonious and having large scope — qualities which have been used throughout the history of science as criteria for judging theories. In 2024, Princeton philosopher Bas van Fraassen wrote a short article for IAI News entitled “Science Does not Describe Reality: The Limits and Benefits of Explanation.” At the time, I was working on two projects (a science book and a Great Course) that, when completed, would (among other things) defend science’s ability to describe reality. I wanted to write a response to van Fraassen, but the projects demanded too much of my attention. But now that those projects are complete, I am in a position to explain the objections to van Fraassen’s thesis. Summarizing van Fraassen’s argumentIn a nutshell, his argument is this: What scientists do is make predictions based on theories and then invite others to test to see whether those predictions are borne out. “If theory T is right, result R should happen in experimental condition C.” Many think that running an experiment that shows that R happens in condition C is proof that theory T is true (and should be believed). But, van Fraassen argues, that R happened in condition C is only a reason to think that R happens in condition C. That’s the only observable, or empirical, result we can actually see, so that is all that we are really justified in believing. (The underlying theory that made that prediction still may or may not be true.) That is why he calls those who accept his position “empiricists.”Before I explain what is wrong with this position, let me explain what it gets right. What van Fraassen Gets RightFirst, a theory correctly predicting the results of an experiment is not, strictly speaking, “proof” that the theory is correct. The basic line of reasoning is this:If the theory T is true, result R should happen. Result R did happen. Thus, theory T is true.In other words:“If T then R. R. Thus, T.”This is a deductively invalid, fallacious mode of reasoning, called “affirming the consequent.” Those premises do not guarantee that the conclusion follows. “If I am in Pennsylvania, then I am in the USA. I am in the USA. Thus, I am in Pennsylvania.” Clearly that argument doesn’t guarantee its conclusion; neither does the above argument.However, science is not a deductive method of reasoning; it is an inductive one. And inductive arguments merely try to raise the probability of their conclusion, not “prove” them for certain. Thus, the fact that an experimental result doesn’t prove a theory is true is irrelevant; it’s not supposed to. That is not what scientific reasoning is about.___If the hypothesis that something exists clearly provides the best explanation for what we can observe, then the belief that it exists is what is rational.___Second, it’s also true that a single experimental result doesn’t provide enough justification to believe that a theory is true. Scientists do not come to a consensus about whether a theory is true by looking at a single experiment; they look at all the evidence to determine where the preponderance of evidence points. The mere fact that I am in the USA raises the probability that I am in Pennsylvania, but not nearly enough to conclude that I am in Pennsylvania. However, if I am also regularly encountering people wearing Eagles and Phillies hats and seeing advertisements for Founding Father tours, I probably am. In the same way, a theory successfully predicting the outcome of one experiment is not enough to conclude that it is true; but if a theory makes a wide variety of predictions that are all vindicated by multiple experiments, performed by many different groups and people, all actively trying to prove the theory false (which is what good scientific experiments are designed to do)—that is a good reason to conclude that the theory is true. In other words, if you repeatedly try to prove something false but can’t, that is a very good indication that it isn’t. The problem of underdeterminationIn reply, those whom van Fraassen calls “empiricists” often point to the “problem of underdetermination.” For any given theory that makes successful predictions about what happens in experimental conditions, there are countless other possible theories that make exactly the same predictions—and since they do, the experimental evidence in question is just as much reason to accept any of those theories as it is to accept our original one. Thus, the argument goes, we have no way of knowing whether our original theory is true, or one of the other “predictively equivalent” theories is true. SUGGESTED VIEWING How Occam's Razor changed the world With Johnjoe McFadden As an example of underdetermination, philosophers often offer this example. The evidence of fossils seems to provide reason to conclude that the universe is quite old; ancient fossils are what the “ancient universe” hypothesis predicts. But it’s also possible that God created an ancient-looking universe 200 years ago, complete with a “fake” fossil record for us to find, to make it look old. The existence of fossils is what that theory predicts too. So, the argument goes, the fossil record can’t be used as evidence that the universe is ancient; the fossil record supports the “200-year-old ancient-looking universe” theory just as much. The problem of underdetermination points out that, for any theory with supporting evidence, we could invent another completely different theory that predicts exactly the same evidence, and thus undermine that evidence’s ability to support the original theory.But this “argument from underdetermination” betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of what scientific reasoning is and how it works. To explain, let me use another rather strange (but very real and commonly discussed) philosophical thought experiment called “The Grue Problem.” The “Grue” ProblemSuppose I want to know what color emeralds are, so I observe a few, see that they all appear green, and form the theory that “all emeralds are green.” I thus predict that the next 100 emeralds I find will also appear to be green. And let’s say that happens, and so I thus conclude that my theory that all emeralds are green is true. Now, one might rightly point out that I don’t know for sure that all emeralds are green—I have not seen them all. Maybe some I haven’t found yet are blue. Fair enough. After all, we used to think that all swans were white, until we found some black ones. But let’s say that I go on a quest and collect every emerald in the universe—and, for the sake of the argument, let’s say I can do this, and can even know that I have every one of them. So, I collect them all, look at them all, and verify that they all appear green. Can’t I now rightly conclude that all emeralds are green?Inspired by the problem of underdetermination, a friend might argue that I cannot.Sure, they all appear green now—but there could be another kind of color called “grue.” Something is grue if it is green up to a certain point in time, but then spontaneously turns blue. And there could be an infinite number of “shades” of grue. Something that is one shade of grue will turn blue at noon today, but something that is another shade of grue will turn blue at noon tomorrow, etc. So yes, the emeralds appear green now; and since they haven’t turned blue yet, they are not some “past” shade of grue. But they might be some “future” shade of grue (e.g., they may turn blue at noon tomorrow). And since all future shades of grue are consistent with “being green up to this point in time,” the evidence you have is completely consistent with the notion that all emeralds are some future shade of grue, rather than green. Indeed, that they would appear green until now is what the “some future shade of grue” hypothesis predicts. So, we have just as much reason to conclude that all emeralds are some shade of grue as we do to conclude that they are green.You’re probably thinking “It’s not equally possible that the emeralds are grue; they are obviously green.” You are right! But explaining why your instinctive reaction to my friend’s argument is correct will help inform why van Fraassen’s “empiricist” is wrong and science actually does describe reality.The main mistake my friend makes is in thinking that the “empirical evidence” (of all the emeralds appearing green) is (or even should be) all I am using to draw the conclusion that all emeralds are green. It is not. I am also considering known facts about how colors typically work; things don’t usually change color, and when they do, they don’t do so suddenly, without cause, and all at once. So, even though the simple evidence of the emeralds all appearing green up to this point is consistent with them being some future shade of grue—that is even what the grue hypothesis “predicts”—it is still exceedingly unlikely that they are. The hypothesis that they are green is much more likely. Understanding science refutes the problem of underdetermination The misunderstanding about science that the “empiricist” pointing to “the problem of underdetermination” makes is similar to the one that my friend made. Science is not just about considering experimental evidence; in fact, it’s not even just about considering empirical evidence. As Ernan McMullin and many other philosophers of science have pointed out, the inference that makes science is “inference to the best explanation” (sometimes called “abduction” or “retroduction” by McMullin). While, depending on the circumstances, scientists use many different kinds of reasoning, science as a whole is, simply put, the process of considering multiple competing explanations and comparing them to certain criteria—explanatory criteria (the kinds of things explanations must be and do, by definition, to be a good explanation)—to see which explanation is the best.And these criteria do not deal only with empirical results. Yes, successful predictions raise the probability of a hypothesis, but it’s also the case that the more new assumptions a theory makes, the less likely it is to be true; every new assumption presents an opportunity for the theory to be false. (The fewer assumptions a theory makes, the simpler or “more parsimonious” it is said to be.) Likewise, the more existing evidence a theory contradicts, the less likely it is, because in order for a theory to be true, every piece of evidence it contradicts has to be somehow faulty. (The fewer established theories a new theory contradicts, the more “conservative” it is said to be.) And, obviously, the more something explains, the better explanation it is. (This is called having “scope.”) If a theory raises unanswerable questions, it’s not expanding our understanding, and thus is not wide-scoping. Scientists consider all these things when deciding which theory to accept, because the theory that adheres best to these explanatory criteria is most likely to be true.___the mere fact that a theory’s predictive success is why it “sticks around” or “becomes accepted” in the scientific community is not a reason to be skeptical about its truth.___The reason the grue hypothesis is no good is because it invents an entirely new kind of color—not just a new shade, but an entirely different category of color (a different way colors work)—and thus is not parsimonious. It raises unanswerable questions about how and why emeralds would just spontaneously change from green to blue (and thus does not have wide scope). And it contradicts what is already well established about how color works (and thus is unconservative).The theories that the problem of underdetermination points to do the same thing. Yes, the theory that God created an “ancient-looking universe” (complete with an ancient-looking fossil record) two hundred years ago is also consistent with the empirical evidence (of a fossil record) that presently exists; but that theory is monumentally unparsimonious (it requires many extra assumptions about infinite entities) and not wide-scoping (it raises unanswerable questions about why God would do such a thing). So, I can rationally conclude that it is false.Indeed, the history of science includes many examples of theories that were rejected because they lacked parsimony and/or scope, even before their falsity (and the truth of their competing theory) was confirmed by observation. As I point out in my book, geocentrism was rejected by the scientific community because it lacked parsimony, almost 200 years before the observation of parallax confirmed that the Earth moves around the sun. And the continuum theory of matter was completely rejected by 1860, because it couldn’t explain chemical reactions or organize matter into a periodic table, even though the experiments that eventually confirmed atomic theory weren’t even proposed until the 1870s. Solving the best of a bad lot problemIn response, the “empiricists” are likely to object, this time pointing to the “best of a bad lot” problem. “We have no reason to conclude that an explanation that has been shown to be better than others is true because we have no guarantee that the true theory was among those that we were considering.” If you have a “lot” (a collection) of poor explanations, even the best one is not true.The responses to this problem, however, are numerous. Peter Lipton argues that the set of hypotheses that scientists consider are not just randomly selected and thus unlikely to contain a theory that is true; they use existing knowledge to home in on what is most likely to be true. A doctor trying to explain abdominal pain is not going to bother wondering whether demons are causing it; they are going to stick with things like appendicitis and kidney stones, because they are most likely. Further, despite its name, inference to the best explanation is not just the process of comparing hypotheses and accepting the best one; we also want one that is a good explanation in its own right. If it’s not, we are going to keep looking until we find an explanation that is. And while that process does not guarantee that we will come across the exact truth, it’s very likely that the theory that emerges as the best will be at least approximately true, and thus we will be justified in believing it. And lastly, as I point out in my book, although many theories not based in scientific evidence (like geocentrism and continuum theory) have been completely overturned, science almost always progresses by the refinement of scientifically established theories—not their replacement. (Although our sun is not the center of the universe, heliocentrism was our first step in understanding the Earth’s true place in the universe.) So even if a theory we accept today may not be completely right, accepting it is a step on the journey toward the complete truth. The example of atomic theoryNow, it’s worth pointing out that most empiricists are not skeptical of all scientific theories; they are only skeptical of the ones that hypothesize the existence of “unobservables.” It’s not like they think that round Earth, heliocentrism, and germ theory are just useful (but untrue) “instruments” for making predictions about how to most efficiently navigate the seas, predict planetary motion, and treat diseases. They admit that the Earth actually is round, that the planets revolve around the sun, and that germs exist and cause disease. These facts and entities can be observed; the theories that suggest they exist are true. It’s only when theories start hypothesizing the existence of unobservables—like electrons, or quantum fields—that can’t be observed directly, that we should start doubting the theories’ truth. And to be fair to van Fraassen, in this published work, he doesn’t really say that we should doubt the truth of such theories. Only that scientific reasoning does not rationally force us to accept them as true. Skepticism, or agnosticism, he argues, is warranted. SUGGESTED READING Science is based in metaphor By Andrew Reynolds But the history of atomic theory throws a monkey wrench into that argument. Atoms used to be unobservable; again, scientists first accepted the theory that they exist because it had such grandiose explanatory power. But then atoms were seen with electron microscopes. They thus moved into the category of the observable. But this didn’t substantially change anything about what scientists were justified in believing; it certainly didn’t change any “atomic skeptics’” minds. It just confirmed what everyone already knew! If the hypothesis that something exists clearly provides the best explanation for what we can observe, then the belief that it exists is what is rational. The fact that the thing itself is not technically observable does not make doubting its existence rational.What’s more, the atoms were seen with an electron microscope. But electrons are themselves unobservable. How can an electron microscope reveal an atom if electrons are not real? This leads us to what is famously known as Hilary Putnam’s “miracle argument.” It’s (not) a miraclePhilosopher Hilary Putnam’s miracle argument is somewhat famous. Basically, he argued that a scientific theory being able to repeatedly make successful predictions—even about unobservables—without being at least approximately true would require a “miracle.” In other words, it would be such an improbable occurrence that it could not rationally be believed—the better explanation for why scientific theories about unobservables make the right predictions is because the unobservable entities and structures they hypothesize exist.Van Fraassen has addressed this argument. Indeed, in his original article, where he references Alison Gopnik’s point about orgasms not being “necessary for procreation” even though the desire for orgasm “drives the creation of progeny,” he is pointing to his own argument about how organisms are not naturally selected by evolution to get true beliefs; to the extent that belief-forming processes are selected for, the ones that are selected are the ones that are useful for survival—not the ones that produce true beliefs. In the same way, van Fraassen argues, scientific theories are accepted, not because they are true, but because they aren’t falsified; they make successful predictions; that’s what makes them “stick around.” So, the fact that they make successful predictions (and thus became accepted) is not a reason to think they are true.This argument is similar to C. S. Lewis’s “argument from reason,” which he used to argue against evolution: “The truth of evolution undercuts our ability to know that it is true.” Lewis’ argument famously failed; Elizabeth Anscombe, by Lewis’s own admission, demolished Lewis in a debate on the topic, and I have explained elsewhere why modified versions of the argument fail as well. In short, it’s because it fails to recognize that a belief-forming process can make an organism more likely to survive because it reliably produces true beliefs. It is therefore not the case that beliefs generated by naturally selected belief-forming processes are automatically false or unjustified.In the same way, the reason a theory “sticks around” could be because it’s not falsified, because it “makes correct predictions.” But the reason it makes correct predictions is most likely because it is true. (In pointing this out, I am echoing the arguments of Musgrave, Lipton, Psillos, and Kitcher, who refuted van Fraassen’s argument and analogy long before his 2024 article.) It would be a huge coincidence that it could do so without being true. And that is the point of Putnam’s miracle argument. Thus, contrary to van Fraassen’s suggestion, the mere fact that a theory’s predictive success is why it “sticks around” or “becomes accepted” in the scientific community is not a reason to be skeptical about its truth. ConclusionLet me close by saying something about the fact that empiricists don’t doubt the truth of all scientific theories, just the ones that hypothesize unobservables. In today’s society, this theory is dangerous to espouse publicly. The nuance between being skeptical about all of science, and just the highly technical theories about unobservables, is guaranteed to be lost to the average reader. And there is so much unjustified skepticism and doubt about the findings of science and experts that a headline like “Science Does Not Describe Reality” could easily fuel the anti-science movement, worsen climate change denial and cause the next pandemic.This is why I believe it was important to still respond to van Fraassen’s article, a full two years after he wrote it. Not only, as I have argued, does it represent a philosophically inaccurate view of how scientific reasoning works and what scientific reasoning can do, but it is a dangerous view to boot. It should thus be rejected.
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