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NC Rep. Chuck Edwards sells McDonald’s business to focus on public service
According to Congressman Edwards, selling the business is a natural next step as his responsibilities representing western North Carolina continue to grow.
How Americans got hooked on “drive-thru” healthcare
When did getting a prescription start to feel like ordering at McDonald’s?
McDonald’s tests placing ads for other brands on its menu screens
The ads display after customers place their orders, taking advantage of the seconds or minutes while they wait for their burgers and fries.
The Business of Civility
In an ever-coarsening world where even hosts on the bastion of conservative media, Fox News, are now using profanity on a regular basis, there is still one place where civility is demanded—and usually delivered. And that place is the business community. Whether you’re ordering a meal at McDonald’s or interviewing the wealthy CEO of Mississippi’s […]
While many international brands retreat, McDonald’s is supersizing its China business
McDonald's plans to have 10,000 locations in China by the end of 2028, and the country is its second largest market.
Franchising has quietly made countless Americans rich
In the age of AI, running a McDonald’s may soon look a lot more appealing
McDonald’s may get into the advertising business
The fast-food giant is testing a commerce media network, saying it could be a $1 billion business.
‘Like at McDonald’s’: Sports nurse practitioner sold opioids to athletes like ‘you gotta pay for your burger,” DEA investigation finds
Joan Rubinger had a client list that included hundreds of athletes—but the DEA found she doled out thousands of illegal prescriptions.
McDonald’s is spending billions to make major changes
McDonald’s is spending billions of dollars to boost its franchises, an effort to cement its title as the leader in fast food amid growing competition.
Business Notes: NSU raises $147M; McDonald’s to open in Virginia Beach
Norfolk State University’s Now Is Our Time campaign raised $147 million, exceeding its original $90 million goal. View the latest business news in Hampton Roads.
He Was Driving a $40k Car But Didn’t Have $5 for McDonald’s. Now He Runs a Multi-Million-Dollar Business.
At age 14, he didn't know what taxes were. Now he's championing financial literacy.
Tiger Talk Notes and Quotes: Florida Edition
An impromptu singing of ‘Happy Birthday’, eating Chipotle instead of McDonald’s, and more from Tiger Talk
Old McDonald’s Farm celebrates forty years in business
Old McDonald’s Farm to many is an old nursery rhyme, but to folks in Sackets Harbor, it’s so much more.
McDonald’s brings Crocs back in Happy Meal toy collaboration
The fast-food chain is dropping a new Happy Meal on Tuesday, March 10, featuring keychain Croc toys with decorative stickers.
Meet the family-owned Detroit company behind McDonald’s ice cream
Made in Detroit: C.F. Burger Creamery Co. supplies soft-serve mix to roughly 13% of McDonald’s locations nationwide.
McDonald’s is using AI to help price your Big Mac
A McDonald’s “pricing engine” analyzes millions of transactions and estimates what customers are willing to pay, Reuters reports.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
McDonald’s to spend $8.5B on revamping restaurants, tech and franchise support
McDonald's plans to provide $8.5 billion in franchisee support through 2036 as part of its NEXT strategy to modernize restaurants and boost growth.
McDonald’s Tried Discounts to Boost Sales. Here’s Why the Strategy Fell Short
To spur growth, McDonald's used discounts to sway budget-conscious customers. However, this strategy hasn't reversed the slowing U.S. growth.
Business Ownership in Europe: The McDonald’s Model
Discover how franchising with McDonald’s helps entrepreneurs in Europe achieve business ownership, drive growth and support local communities.
McDonald’s replaces U.S. boss after slowest growth in over a year
The chain named long-time executive Skye Anderson as president of its US business to lead turnaround efforts, replacing Joe Erlinger, who is leaving the company and has held the role for about seven years.
A look back at the health trends that took over social media in 2025
From functional drinks and olive oil shots to McDonald’s ‘migraine meals,’ 2025 serves up plenty of of viral health trends - but do they actually work?
Fayette County Annual Report Highlights Local Public Health Efforts
Article presented by McDonald’s, I’m Lovin’ It! … Fayette County Public Health (FCPH) has released its 2025 Annual Report, showcasing the department’s work to protect health, prevent disease, and promote wellness across the community. The report highlights the impact of public health services delivered throughout the year, including clinical care, environmental health, school-based services, emergency preparedness, and community outreach initiatives. In
Protesters rally at Rep. Edwards’ owned McDonald’s over vote on SNAP, health care
Protestors gathered on Four Seasons Boulevard in Hendersonville at the McDonald's owned by Western North Carolina Congressman Chuck Edwards.
McDonald's plans massive overhaul with major changes to restaurants, pricing and menus
McDonald’s plans a 2026 overhaul with 8,000 new locations, revamped drive-thrus, tighter pricing rules, new menu items and expanded digital, AI, and loyalty tools.
Why McDonald’s value strategy still isn’t paying off
The Chicago-based fast-food giant reported that U.S. sales growth in the second quarter was lackluster.
McDonald's sued over AI tool that recommends prices to US franchisees
McDonald’s is facing a federal lawsuit that alleges its AI-enhanced pricing tool violates antitrust laws because it shares nonpublic data with competing franchisees. The lawsuit was filed on Friday in
Opinion: Under the mayor's budget, local biz owners like us would pay the price
When the city talks about “taxing big business,” most people don’t picture us: the McDonald’s local business owners. Here's our perspective.
Officials recover $17K in unpaid wages from McDonald’s franchisee for 23 minors
DWD and DOJ said Iron Arch had multiple child labor law violations.
McDonald’s Business Slows Amid Shakeup of Digital Deals
McDonald’s says an attempt to lure budget-conscious consumers backfired in its latest quarter. The fast food giant reported earnings Tuesday (Aug. 4)
McDonald’s franchisees balk at $800,000 bill to overhaul stores
McDonald’s has said the program will help operators save about $100,000 in annual cash flow. Some franchisees see it differently.
McDonald’s breaking ground soon, city officials say
A McDonald’s restaurant will soon be breaking ground in Herculaneum and is expected to be opening in December 2025
McDonald’s finds winning recipe in value meal deals as diners return
McDonald’s said discounted bundles and marketing promotions lifted U.S. traffic in the fourth quarter, driving higher sales and helping the company top Wall Street expectations.
McDonald’s is quietly ditching a popular in-store feature nationwide
McDonald's is quietly ending self-serve soda fountains nationwide, shifting drink prep behind the counter as it modernizes restaurants across the country.
McDonald’s Has a New Growth Strategy. Business Leaders Should Pay Attention
McDonald’s NEXT strategy shows how businesses can use technology, efficiency, and human-centered leadership to drive sustainable growth.
Chuck Edwards sells McDonald’s franchises amid tight congressional race
The North Carolina U.S. member of Congress and his wife transferred their franchises to Asheville operators Christine and Chris Nevant.
ANALYSIS | Bob McDonald’s Top 10 Science Stories of 2025
In no particular order, Bob McDonald reviews 10 of the most fascinating accomplishments and noteworthy science news events of 2025.
McDonald’s is offering free caviar - yes, caviar - for Valentines Day
McDonald’s is offering a few customers a special Valentine’s meal this year – Chicken McNuggets and caviar.
McDonald’s faces antitrust suit over AI-driven pricing
The lawsuit alleges the company violated antitrust law by working with independent franchisees to fix prices using algorithms.
Ben Affleck opens up about McDonald’s eating habits: ‘All the time’
Ben Affleck has admitted that he eats at McDonald’s ‘all the time’ during a comical appearance on ‘Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?’
Chris McDonald’s ‘unrelenting’ science focus raises concerns
Concern among senior arts and humanities leaders follows new science minister’s 'very odd' comments suggesting that he will exclusively make the case for science R&D
Alabama basketball commit Jaxon Richardson shows out at McDonald’s game
Your latest Crimson Tide news and notes.