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Iran crisis epitomizes a world increasingly resistant to Trump’s demands
The iron laws of the world that govern Donald Trump’s presidency — strength, force and power — are increasingly being challenged at home and abroad.
High school sports results for Monday, April 13, 2026
MONDAY’S RESULTS Baseball CITY LEAGUE Obama Academy 14, Carrick 0 (5) WPIAL CLASS 6A Section 1 North Allegheny 6, Central Catholic 1 North Hills...
Congressional candidate Jack Schlossberg thinks Democrats need a makeover
He told NY1 that thinks he can come out on top of a crowded Democratic primary field to represent parts of Manhattan.
PREZODE: a global co-designed collaboration for preventing zoonotic emergence
Nature Health - PREZODE is a global One Health initiative, involving scientists, communities, governments and practitioners, to prevent zoonotic epidemics and pandemics.
Political newcomer running for Rep. Golden's seat in US House
At 29 years old, Paige Loud is the youngest candidate in the Democratic primary race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
What Happens in California Governor’s Race After Eric Swalwell Stepped Down?
For Democrats, the drama is reverberating well beyond the state.
Rep. Eric Swalwell will resign from Congress following sexual misconduct allegations
The California Democrat said in a statement he was “deeply sorry to my family, staff and constituents for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past.”
Google shoehorned Rust into Pixel 10 modem to make legacy code safer
Cellular modems are complex black boxes of legacy code, but Google is making them safer with Rust.
Donalds says FL should counter Democrats by redistricting. That’s illegal here
Byron Donalds said “Florida needs to respond” to Virginia by redrawing Congressional districts, but partisan gerrymandering is barred here.
Kim Kardashian makes her Broadway producing debut with the criminal justice play 'The Fear of 13'
Kim Kardashian is adding Broadway producer to her resume | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Kim Kardashian makes her Broadway producing debut with the criminal justice play 'The Fear of 13'
Kim Kardashian is adding Broadway producer to her resume | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Cook Political Report shifts four Senate races toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races to the left on Monday but noted that the GOP is still favored to maintain its majority in the upper chamber this November. “With an increasingly…
Contra Costa Health nurses demand Board of Supervisors stop drastic budget and service cuts
Registered nurses with the California Nurses Association will speak out at the Contra Costa Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday, April 14, to demand that the board stop drastic budget cuts to save the Contra Costa Health system, maintain services, and retain nurses in the wake of the significant projected financial losses created by H.R. 1.
Utah Royals FC Welcomes Dave Tenney as Senior Director of Player Health and Performance
HERRIMAN, Utah (Monday, April 13, 2026) – Utah Soccer President of Soccer Operations Jason Kreis - overseeing Utah Royals FC (National Women’s Soccer League), Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer), Real Monarchs (MLS NEXT Pro) and the RSL Academy - has named highly-respected sports medicine veteran Dave Tenney as the
College of Education and Behavioral Science Names Top Graduates
The College of Education and Behavioral Science at Arkansas State University recognized 34 outstanding graduating students for the 2025-26 academic year during Convocation of Scholars
LIF-HEALTH-PEDIATRICIAN-QA-DMT
Food allergies have risen by 50% since the 1990s. With this in mind, the American Academy of Pediatrics advocates for the health of all children who must avoid certain foods
In Focus Maine: The state budget
@MarisaJacquesTV talks with state Rep. @dgattine, @rightjack58 and state Sen. Peggy Rotundo @mainesenatedems about the state budget, spending priorities and the projected impact on Mainers.
‘Consider it one more sign of the decline in the democratic experiment’
Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
Texas House Democrats fined each over $8K for quorum break
The committee tallied the combined penalties at over $421,000.
Poll: Democrats gaining ground, key races tighten in Florida as Donald Trump drags GOP
Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Democrats, a shift pollsters say could reshape Florida’s political map after years of Republican dominance.
Swalwell’s Fall Punctuates Woes of Democrats in California, of All Places
Democrats have struggled to find a candidate for governor who can capture the imagination of voters in one of their most important strongholds.
Democrat-Leaning Plan Takes Aim At Health Insurers With Proposed New Regulations
Healthcare initiatives being proposed like Patients' Bill of Rights offer a roadmap for Democrats’ priorities, with midterms looming and a presidential election in 2028.
Swalwell exits California governor's race after assault allegations
Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit from the race for California governor left his rivals scrambling to lock down his former supporters in a crowded contest with no clear leader, injecting more turmoil into the campaign to lead the nation’s most populous state.
MLB Power Rankings: Let the turnarounds begin? Which teams have already exorcised their early season demons
In the long slog that is a 162-game season, early results can mean nothing -- or everything
OPEC lowers second-quarter global oil demand forecast on Iran war
OPEC on Monday lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter, citing the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East, a copy of its monthly oil report seen by Reuters showed.
Following the Success of Artemis II, Scientists Will Shape What Comes Next for Lunar Exploration
NASA plans to launch more lunar missions after the success of Artemis II, signaling a renewed era for lunar exploration and science — and raising questions about what comes next. A National Academies study currently underway will identify key non-polar landing sites for future crewed lunar missions and what science goals could be achieved.
Ann Brach Appointed Executive Director of Transportation Research Board at National Academies
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine announced today that Ann Brach has been named the executive director of the Transportation Research Board (TRB).
The Ultimate Secrets of Strixhaven Limited Set Review
Ready for a second semester at Strixhaven? We'll give you a crash course on everything you can expect from this Limited format.
IRA Financial Named Business of the Year by Sioux Empire United Way
SIOUX FALLS, S.D., April 13, 2026--IRA Financial, a leading provider of self-directed retirement solutions, today announced it has been named Business of the Year by Sioux Empire United Way as part of its 2026 annual Thank You Event. The award recognizes organizations that demonstrate exceptional commitment to supporting the Sioux Empire community through philanthropy, volunteerism, and leadership.
GTA 6 Hackers Say Stolen Data "Will be Published as Their Demands Had Not Been Met"
Hackers have said they will publish data obtained from GTA 6 developer Rockstar Games online because their demands have not been met.
NSF announces 2026 Graduate Research Fellowship Program award offers
The U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) today announced that it has made offers and will award 2,500 Graduate Research Fellowships for the 2026-2027 academic year...
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to resign from House amid sexual assault allegations
The California Democrat suspended his campaign for governor amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations by a former staff member and at least three other women
On the job with Jessika Varner, business manager/community engagement coordinator at Horizon Science Academy of Lorain
Jessika Varner, business manager and community engagement coordinator at the Horizon Science Academy in Lorain, said she started working for a school system in her early 20s. Varner worked for the Concept Schools location in…
College of Liberal Arts and Sciences inducts 44 students into Phi Beta Kappa Society
Forty-four students were inducted into the prestigious Phi Beta Kappa Society by Mercer University’s Zeta of Georgia Chapter for the 2025-2026 academic year.
Mental health stressors peak in Colorado mountain communities as the winter-that-wasn’t melts into offseason
Demand for counseling is surging as mountain communities empty, costs rise and work ebbs. “It feels like tension is really high.”
New data suggests Trump’s assault on democracy may be stalling out
Three new reports give some surprising reasons for optimism.
Rockledge to get hospital land back from Orlando Health after demolition
Rockledge City Council will vote on a deal to return the former Rockledge Regional Medical Center site to the city after demolition.
After Charlie Kirk’s Death, a Fight for the Youth Vote
A fledgling Democratic group and the far-right white nationalist Nick Fuentes seek to make gains on college campuses that have recently been dominated by Turning Point USA.
USC Brain Health Center could be hub for Alzheimer’s treatment, new tech for mental health
A new $30 million Brain Health Center at USC in Columbia will be a magnet for advanced diagnosis and treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia but also deploy new technology for mental health.
“The choice is yours…”, an analysis of Wilders’ algorithmic politics on platform X
Geert Wilders: a longtime actor in politicsGeert Wilders has been a long-standing figure in Dutch politics. He has served in the House of Representatives since 1998, initially as a member of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) until he left the party in 2004 (Vossen, 2011, p. 184 ...
Bayern Munich exec condemns treatment of fans in Madrid
Were FC Bayern fans victimized in Madrid?
Ska Brewing sale breathes new life into 30-year-old business
Ska Brewing Co. in Durango has survived more than 30 years of shifting economic landscapes, a pandemic, a multiyear decline for craft breweries on the whole and a recent change of ownership after deca...
Community health centers maintained care continuity during COVID-19 pandemic
As the COVID-19 pandemic upended virtually every aspect of people's lives, one critical question loomed large for millions of low-income and underserved healthcare patients: Would they still be able to see their own doctor?
Michigan U.S. Senate 'primary storm' captivates, but worries Democrats
For decades, Democrats have avoided competitive primary contests to pick the party's nominees for U.S. Senate. That's not the case this year.
Zohran Mamdani celebrates ‘pothole politics’ in a raucous rally marking 100 days as NYC mayor
Having just marked his first 100 days as New York mayor, Zohran Mamdani told a roaring crowd of supporters, city workers and political allies his administration has already delivered evidence a democratic socialist can, in fact, govern.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles 2 DLC character Shinobu Kocho (Infinity Castle) launches April 17
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles 2 downloadable content character Shinobu Kocho (Infinity Castle) will launch on April 17, publisher Aniplex and developer CyberConnect…
Zohran Mamdani touted socialist philosophy of 'pothole politics' while reviewing first 100 days as mayor
"I was elected as a Democratic socialist," he said in a speech on his first 100 days as mayor. "And I will govern as a Democratic socialist."
Eric Swalwell drops bid for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
The Democratic candidate faced immediate calls to end his campaign, with many supporters withdrawing their endorsements.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Can AI Fix the Mental Health Crisis?
Demand is outpacing care. AI tools are already filling the gap. But are they safe, effective, and ready for clinical practice?
SF, California leaders blast Trump for firing Presidio board
State and local leaders condemned the decision to fire all six board members of the Presidio Trust, the federal agency that manages the historic national park.
Leah Halton-Pope named Democratic candidate for 141st Assembly District
It comes after Crystal Peoples-Stokes announced this past week she would not seek reelection.
AIPAC may be a new litmus test for Democratic candidates. Leaders say voters' heads are elsewhere.
Last week's Democratic National Committee meeting illustrated a party trying to stay focused on economic issues while grappling with strong, changing opinions on Israel.
Illinois Valley Community College’s SciFest returns April 17 with 100+ hands-on science experiments
Illinois Valley Community College will host its annual SciFest on April 17 at 7 p.m. in the College Gymnasium, featuring more than 100 interactive science demonstrations and experiments.
Swalwell faces pressure to resign from Congress as former staffers denounce alleged misconduct in new letter
A letter signed by more than 50 former staffers of Rep. Eric Swalwell described recent allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against him as “serious” and “credible,” while demanding he resign from Congress and drop his bid for California governor.
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to exit politics over sexual assault allegations
An expanding number of Democrats, including fellow Californians, are asking their House colleague to quit his campaign for governor and resign from Congress.
Calls grow for Rep. Swalwell to resign or be expelled over misconduct claims
Several Democratic and Republican lawmakers said they would be in favor of voting to expel Swalwell, as well as Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who both face misconduct allegations.
Weekly Briefing: Israel is losing its grip on U.S. politics
Support for Israel is collapsing in U.S. politics. The Iran war has fractured the MAGA base, military aid has become a Democratic litmus test, and AIPAC is losing primaries.
Fallout from Eric Swalwell scandal grows as lawmakers eye House expulsion votes
The political crisis surrounding Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is rapidly escalating into a broader bipartisan showdown that could reshape the makeup of the House.
California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him
Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.
Stein questions whether state’s data center incentives still make sense
Sales tax exemptions could cost N.C. $450 million as new data centers come online, the Democratic governor said.
The Guardian view on AI politics: US datacentre protests are a warning to big tech
Editorial: In both Republican and Democratic states, scepticism and hostility towards an unregulated construction boom is growing
Dem. Congressman: ‘Eric Swalwell needs to resign, needs to drop out of the race’ for CA gov
Pop culture takes center stage at Shenandoah Comic-Con
Warriors, robots, demons and more came out to play at Shenandoah Comic-Con at the Rockingham County Fairgrounds exhibit hall on Saturday.
'Euphoria' Season 3 returns with new plot and dedications
After four years, 'Euphoria' Season 3 premieres this weekend, dedicated to Angus Cloud and others. What to know.
Column: Bye, bye Eric. Swalwell needs to go
Swalwell needs to drop out of the governor's race and resign from Congress.
Cuban leader does not commit to releasing political prisoners amid U.S. demands
In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel is asked whether he is willing to commit to meeting key U.S. demands, including releasing political prisoners and scheduling multi-party elections.
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening
The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.
BGHS students earn multiple honors at science competitions - Sent-trib
Bowling Green High School students demonstrated their scientific knowledge, teamwork, and problem-solving skills at two regional science competitions held on March 14, earning multiple top finishes and one student advancing to the state level.
"Botany of Nations" on View at The Academy of Natural Sciences Through February 14, 2027
To mark America's 250th birthday, The Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University has an exhibition rich with artifacts and plant specimens from the Lewis and Clark expeditions
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
The most important Democratic health care debate is raging again
Single payer is getting a second wind.
Pope Leo for president someday? Don't even think about it
A recent meeting between Pope Leo XIV and Democratic strategist David Axelrod at the Vatican sparks some intrigue and slight political speculation.
Democrats see gas prices as a potent political tool. Here’s the catch.
President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran sent gas prices surging, giving Democrats’ focus on affordability more traction if they can get voters to trust them.
Peloton’s Latest Leader Thinks He Can Coach It Back to Health
The fitness company has fallen to a small fraction of its value at its pandemic peak, but Peter Stern says Peloton is headed in the right direction.
Peloton’s Latest Leader Thinks He Can Coach It Back to Health
The fitness company has fallen to a small fraction of its value at its pandemic peak, but Peter Stern says Peloton is headed in the right direction.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting to face questions on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg
This week, Victoria Derbyshire is stepping in for Laura Kuenssberg. Tory MP James Cartlidge and Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey will also be on the show.
Former ‘Citgo 6’ political prisoner sees ‘karma’ in Maduro ouster, but Venezuelan oil won’t rebound until there’s true regime change
Former 'Citgo Six' captive sees democratic elections as the only way to build international business trust in Venezuela again.
Pandemics Are Not Just Biological Crises
People typically think of pandemics in terms of their biological consequences, but science journalist Laura Spinney argues that their impact is shaped just as
Female students, leaders gather for Business of Her conference
More than 200 students and other female leaders gatehred at McKenna Hall for the Business of Her conference.The day was full of panels, breakout sessions, insp
Book crawl brings business to local small businesses
Book lovers rejoice, your demands were heard for the return of a book crawl.
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
State floats major mental health funding shift that could jeopardize North Bay mobile crisis teams
The proposed shift would shoulder counties with as much as $130 million annually to sustain the programs. For many, it would open a gap they can’t fill.
Takeaways From the First Big Gathering of Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates
The National Action Network convention showcased similarities and some differences in a wide open field of possible contenders.
Jerry Demings continues to lag behind David Jolly in fundraising race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination
The former Republican has a five-to-one financial edge over the Central Florida political veteran.
Markquese Bell arrested, Cowboys safety facing drug possession charges
Cowboys safety Markquese Bell was arrested on both felony and misdemeanor drug charges. Here's what to know about his arrest.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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