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TPG to Acquire Learfield, the Leading College Sports Media Sales and Technology Provider
Investment to support continued transformation of college sports and live entertainment through digital and physical sports IP, brand sponsorship, and fan engagement solutions DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO & FORT WORTH, TEXAS – April 14, 2026 – TPG, a leading global alternative asset management firm, today announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire Learfield, the […]
The real science of Pokémon
The Pokémon franchise, including its recent game Pokémon Pokopia, is inspired by real animals and their ecology. It’s no surprise that so many scientists love to try and “catch ’em all”
SAP Business AI: Release Highlights Q1 2026
In Q1 2026, SAP has a new in the chief AI officer role, but an unchanged mission: helping our customers get real value from AI.
Indian American Neurologist Pria Anand wins literary science writing award
Boston-based physician earns PEN/E.O. Wilson prize for exploring the brain, the mind, and the soul.
How Do Bigfoot Hunters Use Scientific Evidence? We Asked Two Sociologists Who Have Spent Years Among The Bigfooters
Bigfooting is a specific activity within the Bigfoot believer communities. Rather than being antagonistic to science, they mobilize science-like activities to support their views.
Microsoft Rejects Speculation It’s Axing Carbon Removal Business
Microsoft Corp., the world’s biggest investor in carbon removal projects, rejected speculation that it is abandoning its efforts to build out the technology.
In the West, businesses can only watch, not stop drone threats
With few options available, businesses and the wealthy in the West are buying drone detectors, a technology used often in Ukraine, to spot threats.
Grasp Hires Chevalier as New Chief Executive
Grasp Technologies has appointed Maria Chevalier as CEO, succeeding Chris Wilson. Chevalier, a former corporate travel buyer, has extensive experience in travel management and previously served on Grasp's board. Her goals include focusing on innovation and client-centric strategies.
College sports giant Learfield finalizing sale to private equity firm
Learfield, a leading college sports multimedia rights and technology firm, is finalizing a deal to sell a majority stake to private equity firm TPG.
Local small business making adjustments to overcome challenges caused by NFL Draft
‘American Idol’ Live Blog: Who Will Make the Top 9?
Follow along for a night of Rock & Roll Hall of Fame performances and to find out who was eliminated.
BETMGM Q1 2026 BUSINESS UPDATE
BetMGM LLC ("BetMGM"), a leading sports betting and iGaming operator across North America, jointly owned by MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) ("MGM Resorts") and Entain plc (LSE: ENT)...
Google.org and the Johnson & Johnson Foundation are launching a $10 million initiative to train rural U.S. healthcare workers in AI.
Google is providing AI training and grants to help rural health clinics use tools that improve operations for healthcare workers.
Quantum systems can remember and forget at the same time, scientists discover
Quantum systems can secretly “remember” their past—even when they appear not to. Scientists found that whether a system shows memory depends on how you look at it: through its evolving state or its measurable properties. Each perspective uncovers different kinds of memory, meaning a system can seem memoryless and memory-filled at the same time. This discovery could change how researchers design and control quantum technologies.
How Pope Leo XIV Understands His Role in Politics
Leo doesn’t want to be seen as a rival to President Trump. That doesn’t mean he thinks the gospel is apolitical.
Scientists Grow Electronics Inside the Brains of Living Mice
The technology harnesses the brain's own blood chemistry to assemble soft, light-controlled electrodes around neurons.
Vote for Blue FCU's Fort Collins-area Girls Athlete of Week (April 13)
Vote for Blue FCU Girls Athlete of the Week, with nominees from Rocky tennis, PSD lacrosse, Timnath track & field and Fossil Ridge soccer/track.
Earth Day forum to explore climate solutions through business and policy in San Francisco
Earth Day arrives next week. Amid global distractions, a local public forum plots new strategies for tackling climate change. The World Meteorological
This new Android app could be a lifesaver for sleepy commuters
Sleep&Arrive is a new Android app with Wear OS support that tries to wake you based on your location rather than a fixed alarm time.
Trump officials consider physician, a Fox News regular, for top vaccine post
Houman Hemmati is under consideration to lead the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. A final decision has not been made.
Thaddeus Stevens College to launch online small business management program
Thaddeus Stevens College of Technology prides itself on integrating its students into central Pennsylvania trade and technical programs, to the point that many are working for local businesses before they
WEBTOON Entertainment Announces Leadership Changes to Accelerate Global Growth Strategy
WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. (Nasdaq: WBTN) today announced a new global leadership structure and Chief Business Officer role as it accelerates execution and i...
UL Solutions Inc. Broadens Portfolio with Agreement to Acquire Eurofins Scientific's Electrical & Electronics Business1
UL Solutions Inc. (NYSE: ULS), a global leader in applied safety science, today announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the electrica...
WATCH: Trump says he doesn't owe Pope Leo an apology after attacking him for comments on Iran
Building Your Own Major: Helmhold ’27 Connects Sports and Psychology Through Communication
Helmhold created an Interdisciplinary Studies major focused on communication strategies in athletics.
Dallas ISD voters to decide largest school bond in state history
On May 2nd, voters living in Dallas ISD will decide whether to pay $33 more a year in property taxes to pay for a $6.2 billion bond package. The plan would build 26 new schools and make major upgrades to facilities and technology at every campus. Lone Star Politics speaks with Miguel Solis, former President of DISD Board of Trustees and now the President of the Commit Partnership.
White Sox deal Lenyn Sosa to Toronto
The infielder is shipped out for a lottery ticket and loose change
Apple is testing four smart glasses designs to compete with Meta
Apple has been rumored to be working on smart glasses technology for months.
Reach Heroic Heights in Reign of Talon
The climb continues as a new Hero rises and the fight for a better future pushes Overwatch higher than ever.
Machine Learning As A Transformative Tool for (Exo-)Planetary Science
The exploration of planetary bodies in our Solar system and beyond relies on the processing
Google Meet on Android Auto starts rolling out, doesn’t support work accounts
Not long after Apple CarPlay, Google Meet is now making its way to Android Auto, but it doesn’t support work...
Microsoft is testing OpenClaw-like AI bots for 365 Copilot
The Verge is about technology and how it makes us feel. Founded in 2011, we offer our audience everything from breaking news to reviews to award-winning features and investigations, on our site, in video, and in podcasts.
FDA shares warning about cath lab procedure kits due to risk of patient injury
The syringes included in several convenience kits commonly used by interventional cardiologists and interventional radiologists should not be used. If treatment is necessary and no other devices are available, it should be done with “extreme caution and vigilance.”
Health Sciences Weekend Unites Alumni Around Shared Health Science Center Story
For decades, alumni returned to the University of Tennessee Health Sciences through individual college and class reunions, usually over six different weekends throughout the year.
Health Sciences Weekend Unites Alumni Around Shared Health Science Center Story
For decades, alumni returned to the University of Tennessee Health Sciences through individual college and class reunions, usually over six different weekends throughout the year.
Preparing for Cyber Warfare Risks: Why Every Business Must Strengthen Cloud Security
Cyber warfare risks continue to rise as geological tensions escalate. Learn how to strengthen your cloud security, and mitigate any cyber warfare risks.
How Orban Lost His Touch, and Hungary’s Election
The election defeat for Prime Minister Viktor Orban is less the result of an ideological shift in Hungary, and more the playing out of a fundamental rule of politics.
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers - Live Score
View the Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers game played on April 15, 2026. Box score, stats, play-by-play timeline, highlights, odds & more
Smart Adhesive Is Key to Crease-Free Foldable iPhone Display
Advances in optically clear adhesive (OCA) will be a key factor in achieving a near-invisible crease in Apple's first foldable iPhone expected later this year, according to TrendForce. The supply chain intelligence firm outlined the key technologies in a new report on foldable display innovation, explaining that creases form when layers within the display panel fall out of alignment, concentrating stress at the fold and causing micro-cracks or permanent deformation over time.
Nielsen Names Roberto Ruiz Head of Measurement Science
Nielsen Names Roberto Ruiz Head of Measurement Science
Agamon Health Announces New Automated Chart Prep Capability
/PRNewswire/ -- Agamon Health, an AI-powered healthcare technology company focused on automating operational workflows in oncology, announces commercial...
MLB Power Rankings: Let the turnarounds begin? Which teams have already exorcised their early season demons
In the long slog that is a 162-game season, early results can mean nothing -- or everything
After shedding legacy units, Kustom cuts annual loss by nearly $12M
Revenue from continuing operations reached $13.8M as stockholders' equity rose $11.4M; stronger working capital backs Kustom's entertainment-only pivot.
DoctorGPT: AI’s rising role in Gainesville healthcare
Alachua County Deputy Fire Chief Jeff Taylor said the department uses AI for administrative tasks but remains wary of bringing the technology into patient care.
Lessons from the OIG: Common Billing Errors Texas Home Health Providers Need to Know | Insights
The Texas Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General (HHSC-OIG) quarterly report highlights common billing errors and compliance issues in home healthcare settings.
TCL CSOT Will Launch A Dual-Mode Monitor With 4X Refresh Rate Switching With Up To 640 Hz
TCL CSOT plans a dual-mode monitor with 4X refresh rate switching, reaching up to 640 Hz at 1080p, potentially featuring OLED technology.
UConn Health Offers New Level of Precision in Cancer Care
High-tech radiation therapy machine enhances accuracy, safety
Radiology Partners reportedly eyeing international expansion
America’s largest radiology group has purportedly considered making a bid to buy its Australian counterpart, which tallied over $176 million in adjusted earnings last year.
9 questions radiology practices should ask when pursuing ‘disruptive innovation’
CHAMPIONSGATE, Fla. Kaihan Krippendorff, MBA, spoke on April 12 during the opening keynote of the Radiology Business Management Association’s annual meeting.
South Business Drive Reconstruction to Begin on Wednesday
Things are about to get a bit more complicated on Sheboygan's south side as reconstruction of South Business D...
Everything to know about David Geffen Galleries as a new LACMA emerges
The divisive new building opens to members April 19 and widely May 4. Learn more about its architecture, must-see art, things to do and $724 million price tag.
Daniel Schneemann Full GAME LOG
View Daniel Schneemann's full Game Log from the null MLB season
USC Brain Health Center could be hub for Alzheimer’s treatment, new tech for mental health
A new $30 million Brain Health Center at USC in Columbia will be a magnet for advanced diagnosis and treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia but also deploy new technology for mental health.
Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the shores of Presque Isle
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Buffalo District, has just released a very interesting video named ‘Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the Shores of Presque Isle’. This video shows how the Buffalo District – using modern technology and hands-on expertise – fights erosion and protects the coastline of Presque Isle for the future: This content […]
Surfshark Just Dropped a Next-Gen VPN Protocol That Could Be Faster and More Secure Than Other VPN Connections
The new Dausos connection protocol has been independently audited and includes a few key innovations not found in other VPNs.
FDA accepts previously rejected application for new PET imaging agent
The radiopharma firm hopes to soon begin selling Pixclara (Floretyrosine F 18), an investigational product for glioma, a type of brain cancer.
Baker Hughes sells Waygate unit to Hexagon for about $1.45 billion
Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes sold its Waygate Technologies unit to Swedish industrial technology group Hexagon for about $1.45 billion in cash, the two companies said on Monday.
Nish Kumar on racism, technology, and politics in comedy show at McCarter Theatre
Staff writer for The Prospect Annika Plunkett reviews Nish Kumar's politically-focused comedy show at McCarter Theatre.
UberDoc Health Technologies Corp. Announces Upcoming Investor Webinar
Boston, Massachusetts--(Newsfile Corp. - April 13, 2026) - UberDoc Health Technologies Corp. (CSE: APPT) (FSE: 4KL0) ("UberDoc" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that Sean Kearney, Chief Executive Officer, and Dr. Paula Muto, Founder and Chief Medical Advisor, will present an introduction to UberDoc in a live investor webinar taking place on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, at 11:00 AM PT / 2:00 PM ET.The webinar will be hosted by Cory Fleck of the Korelin Report and provide an overview of...
Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers - Live Score
View the Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers game played on April 18, 2026. Box score, stats, play-by-play timeline, highlights, odds & more
Breaking cover: the future of the business book
Authors are experimenting with new technology and formats to better communicate ideas
NH Food Bank unveils new brand and strategic vision
The New Hampshire Food Bank, a program of Catholic Charities New Hampshire, has launched a new brand and strategic vision, including a new logo, mission statement and vision statement. The
BIZNOTE: After almost a quarter-century, Avalon Glassworks looking for new ownership for their unique West Seattle business
By Tracy Record West Seattle Blog editor More change is on the way for the heart of the Luna Park mini-business district. Shannon Felix and Jon Felix are looking for new ownership for Avalon Glassworks, which they've owned for 23 of its 33 years at 2914 SW Avalon Way. Their one-of-a-kind business - West Seattle's only commercial ...
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
I use Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT every day—here's the only one you should pay for
The battle of the bots.
Health expert explains link between women's hormones, stress
Functional medicine practitioner Jennifer Gularson highlights how physiological shifts like menopause can trigger significant stress and hormone imbalances.
Rockstar Games says hack will have ‘no impact’
Player data isn’t suspected to be compromised.
Go ahead and grab that glass of wine — it can slow biological aging, but there’s a catch
Science 4 Everyone: Why aren't your plants growing back after the winter?
Are your plants not growing after winter? You aren't alone. Storm Team4 meteorologist Ryan Miller explains why winter conditions affect your plants.
Cologne wins Bundesliga relegation duel 3-1 against 10-man Werder Bremen
Cologne eased its Bundesliga relegation worries on Sunday with a 3-1 win over 10-man Werder Bremen that left the visiting team just outside the drop zone. Wagner has been handed the reins for the rest of the season after Cologne fired Lukas Kwasniok as coach on March 22.
Anthropic brings Claude into Microsoft Word, and legal contract review leads its use cases
Anthropic's Claude for Word beta is live in Microsoft Word for Team and Enterprise users, with legal contract review as the tool's first listed use case
Health expert explains link between women's hormones, stress - and what to do about it
In honor of National Stress Awareness Month, health experts are drawing attention to the internal physiological shifts that contribute to rising stress levels in women, specifically menopause and perimenopause.
Student-led sports business conference brings industry leaders to campus
University of Illinois event highlights careers in athletics, media and analytics through panels and networking.
GSK sees blockbuster potential in targeted cancer therapy after promising early data
British drugmaker GSK's experimental targeted cancer drug Mo-rez has blockbuster potential, its head of oncology research has told reporters, after early data showed the drug helped shrink tumors in patients with advanced, hard-to-treat cancers.
Alums bring entrepreneurial spirit to downtown businesses
Two graduates of ETSU's College of Business and Technology share what it's like to be an entrepreneur in Johnson City.
How do you give a giant otter a health check?
Staff at Jersey Zoo had to overcome challenging logistics to help one of their large mammals.
Nintendo's Animated Films Challenge Disney's Box Office Dominance
Nintendo's expansion into theatrical animation, with billion-dollar films and an annual release slate, is challenging Disney's dominance while strategically promoting its gaming hardware and franchises like the successful Switch 2.
Pandemics Are Not Just Biological Crises
People typically think of pandemics in terms of their biological consequences, but science journalist Laura Spinney argues that their impact is shaped just as
UFC 327 live blog: Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg
Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg battle for a vacant UFC title in UFC 327 main event
Flyers Postgame Blog: Statement Win; Vladar Bounces Back; Vintage Couturier
The Philadelphia Flyers made a statement on Saturday. It was a dominating 7-1 win over the Winnipeg Jets that lowered […] The post Flyers Postgame Blog: Statement Win; Vladar Bounces Back; Vintage Couturier appeared first on Philly Hockey Now.
Health-Related Quality of Life in Burn Injury Victims Attending a Specialized Institution
Introduction Burn injuries cause long-term physical, psychological, and social consequences that substantially affect health-related quality of life (HRQOL), particularly in LMICs. The eviden...
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
Hidden weak spots in HIV and Ebola revealed with breakthrough nanodisc technology
A new nanodisc-based platform lets scientists study viral proteins in a form that closely mimics real viruses, revealing how antibodies truly recognize them. This approach uncovered hidden interactions in viruses like HIV and Ebola that traditional methods missed. By recreating the virus’s membrane environment, researchers can better understand how immune defenses work. The technique could speed up the development of more effective vaccines.
Scientists rethink DNA after discovering it can be built from scratch in a process they call 'doodling'
Scientists show DNA polymerases can build long, patterned DNA without a template called "doodling," opening new paths for synthetic biology.
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Student scientists compete at York Region Science and Technology Fair
Nintendo Prime: Nintendo is spreading fake information internally to patch leaks
Nintendo is an extremely secretive company but in recent weeks they’ve sprung some leaks and it isn’t the first time that it has happened. YouTuber Nintendo Prime says he has heard from his sources…
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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