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Sony’s latest gaming headset offers great open-back audio
Stellar sound performance, if you don’t mind its lack of noise cancellation.
Diaspora MKE Sports Bar & Lounge making grand opening on 414 Day
Diaspora MKE Sports Bar and Lounge is making its grand opening from 5 to 7 p.m. April 14.
Capital One closes Spark Miles, launches Venture Business
The Capital One Spark Miles is no longer open to new applicants, but the Venture Business has arrived to offer solid perks in its place.
Chargers Daily Links: Tuesday Open Thread
Your source for all Chargers and NFL news from around the web.
GoPro Mission 1 Pro: 8Kp60 Video, 50MP Photos, 10-Bit Log, 5+ Hour Battery
The GoPro Mission 1 Pro features a Type 1 sensor, up to 8Kp60 video capture (along with 8K Open Gate), and 50 megapixel photo capability.
NYSE Content Update: OpenLoop Health Debuts At-Home Sleep Apnea Test with 98% Accuracy
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) provides a daily pre-market update directly from the NYSE Trading Floor. Access today's NYSE Pre-market update for market insights before trading begins.
Open-air driving pleasure in the new Porsche 911 GT3 S/C
Lightweight cabriolet with a high-revving naturally aspirated engine and manual transmission.
UNC Health Pardee Hosts Community Open House for Brevard Campus
UNC Health Pardee Hosts Community Open House for Brevard Campus
Toilet tech is the next frontier of health data — but it might mean putting a camera on your bowl
The Post tried three of the latest toilet health trackers to see if they're worth opening your wallet — and your bathroom door.
Novo Nordisk CEO: This is where science meets speed and scale
Maziar Mike Doustdar, CEO of Novo Nordisk, says AI partnership with OpenAI will speed drug discovery and delivery, boost accuracy and strengthen confidence in Wegovy despite rising competition.
Key players miss training before Sporting clash
Five of Arsenal's key players were missing from the open part of training before the Gunners quarter-final second-leg match against Sporting in the Champions League. Arsenal have a 1-0 advantage from the first leg but have a number of injury issues in the squad. Declan Rice, who played 90 minutes of Arsenal's 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth at the weekend, was not seen in the first 15 minutes of the training session that was open to the media.
WIAA spring sports season opens with questions for area teams
Can Kaukauna softball, Xavier girls soccer, Freedom girls track defend their state titles? Here are 9 questions heading into the spring sports season.
Pinckney-area pet store asking the community to support local
The store has been open for over 13 years and sells items for dogs, cats, horses, reptiles, indoor and outdoor birds and other small animals.
Tom Holland says new 'Spider-Man' is the most emotional, most mature, yet
Tom Holland’s Peter Parker is dealing with the fallout of making his friends forget his identity in the new “Spider-Man” movie | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Iran: Israel’s Oil Depot Strikes Endanger Environment, Health
Israeli attacks on four oil depots around Tehran on March 7, 2026 may cause long-term health and environmental harm for civilians.
Mountain View to consider creating ‘entertainment zones'
The Mountain View City Council will consider a plan that would allow for open consumption of alcohol during specific events.
How the Trump family's business deals could open the door for future presidents to profit from office
For the Trump family, business is booming. Whereas the Trump Organization didn’t do a single deal overseas in Donald Trump's first term as president, it did eight in the past year.
How the Trump family's business deals could open the door for future presidents to profit from office
For the Trump family, business is booming. Whereas the Trump Organization didn’t do a single deal overseas in Donald Trump's first term as president, it did eight in the past year.
Two Yale student scientists named Goldwater Scholars
Two Yale juniors have received the prestigious Goldwater scholarship, which supports students interested in research careers in the fields of natural sciences, engineering, and mathematics.
US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks
U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 in early Asian trade on Tuesday as traders balanced heightened supply risks linked to a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with reports that Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad.
Opening of Hercules Park spurring growth of business in area
A local park is helping contribute to business growth. Hercules Park opened in March last year, marking the city’s first public park to open in 40 years. Investment in the city’s parks is coinciding with its growth.
Ranking top 10 transfer portal players still available in women’s basketball
The transfer portal in women's basketball has been open for a week, but some of the sport's biggest stars, like Jordan Lee, remain uncommitted.
'Experience something different': New crafting business opens in downtown Lynchburg
A new local crafting business is bringing a fresh focus on creativity and community connection.
PCC Community Markets will open a new Seattle location
The store, slated to open this fall, will be the Seattle-based food cooperative’s 17th store in Washington.
Arctic marine science exhibition opens in Anchorage on May 15
The exhibition will include how communities and western scientists are working together, how all life in the water impacts the health of ecosystems, the importance of science communications, and intricacies of the research vessel itself.
Owner of Kevin's Seafood in New Haven fundraises to reopen business
The organizer of the fundraiser, Cheryl Heyward, said Kevin Heyward has "a long history" of supporting local churches, community events, schools, shelters and feeding the homeless.
Commerce Opens Nominations for 2026 To The Stars: Kansas Business Awards
Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of Commerce David Toland today announced the Kansas Department of Commerce is accepting nominations for the 2026 To The Stars: Kansas Business Awards. The...
Snowmass Mountain reopened for National Disabled Veterans Winter Sports Clinic
Participants of the 40th annual National Disabled Veteran Winter Sports Clinic were able to experience Snowmass last week despite the mountain having closed early for the season Sunday, April 5.
Microsoft is working on yet another OpenClaw-like agent
The company has also previously introduced agents that are able to complete tasks, Cowork and Copilot Tasks.
Regulation Evaluation Portal Open for Small Business Owner Feedback
The Regulation Evaluation Portal allows Texans to submit feedback and make recommendations on areas of possible government overregulation.
Showing the math for Earth’s first — and sudden
Inspired by a Yale undergraduate science class, a new study uses math to suggest that the spark of life on Earth happened quickly — once the conditions were right.
USA TODAY Sports launches inaugural Readers' Choice Awards
USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards voting is open. Cast your vote for best NFL cities, college baseball stadiums, and sports bars.
USA TODAY Sports launches inaugural Readers' Choice Awards
USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards voting is open. Cast your vote for best NFL cities, college baseball stadiums, and sports bars.
Microsoft is testing OpenClaw-like AI bots for 365 Copilot
The Verge is about technology and how it makes us feel. Founded in 2011, we offer our audience everything from breaking news to reviews to award-winning features and investigations, on our site, in video, and in podcasts.
Fable still coming out this autumn, despite reports that developer Playground Games is "worried" about Grand Theft Auto 6
Fable is still slated to release this autumn, despite recent delay rumours suggesting it could slip into 2027.
Essentia Health offering walk-in mammograms in Detroit Lakes
Essentia Health will offer walk-in mammograms from 7:30 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. on Thursday, April 16, at Essentia Health St. Mary’s-Detroit Lakes, located at 1027 Washington Ave.
Renner's three-round NFL mock draft: A wide-open top 10 becomes a case study in positional value
With as many as 20 players in play for the top 10, this class turns into a real-time test of how teams value positions at the top of the draft
Open house in Chicago will focus on improving Black maternal health
Construction done on Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, to open soon
Construction on the California Science Center's new Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, home to the Endeavour shuttle, is complete.
Construction done on Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, to open soon
Construction on the California Science Center's new Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, home to the Endeavour shuttle, is complete.
Guardians start fresh against Cards after disappointing weekend
The Cleveland Guardians and host St. Louis Cardinals will continue the interleague-heavy start to their respective schedules, opening a three-game series Monday night.
Business Notes: NSU raises $147M; McDonald’s to open in Virginia Beach
Norfolk State University’s Now Is Our Time campaign raised $147 million, exceeding its original $90 million goal. View the latest business news in Hampton Roads.
More Than a Quarter of Americans, 27% Have An Active Online Sports Betting Account; A Third Have Opened an Account At Least Once
Sports Betting Continues to Grow as 60% of Online Sports Bettors Say They Have ‘Chased’ A Bet; 63% Have Bet a Total of at Least $100 in One Day; 31%…
Internal OpenAI memo touts Amazon partnership as key driver of enterprise business
CNBC's Kate Rooney reports on an internal OpenAI memo that touts its Amazon partnership as a key driver of its enterprise business.
Trump family deal spree could open door for future presidents to profit from office
For the Trump family, business is booming.
Trump Family Deal Spree Could Open Door for Future Presidents to Profit From Office
NEW YORK (AP) — For decades, presidents avoided even the appearance of profiting from their office. Harry Truman refused to lend his name to any business, even in retirement. Richard Nixon so feared a brother might profit off their ties, he had his phone tapped. And George W. Bush dumped his ...
OpenAI is pivoting to…socialism?
The AI company just released a set of oddly left-wing — and wildly hypocritical — policy ideas.
Eagle Creek State Nature Preserve to host anniversary open house
The Ohio Department of Natural Resources will hold an open house at Eagle Creek State Nature Preserve on April 26 to mark the 50th anniversary of the Division of Natural
9 questions radiology practices should ask when pursuing ‘disruptive innovation’
CHAMPIONSGATE, Fla. Kaihan Krippendorff, MBA, spoke on April 12 during the opening keynote of the Radiology Business Management Association’s annual meeting.
Everything to know about David Geffen Galleries as a new LACMA emerges
The divisive new building opens to members April 19 and widely May 4. Learn more about its architecture, must-see art, things to do and $724 million price tag.
Mid-America Science Museum opening interactive dinosaur exhibit April 25
Dinosaurs will return to Mid-America Science Museum starting April 25 with the exhibit "Expedition: Dinosaur."
From dumplings to pickleball, check out these new North Jersey shops
Ugly Dumpling, Open Play Pickleball, a health care imaging clinic and a Khaadi fashion store at American Dream make our latest list of new businesses.
Starmer confirms UK will not support US blockade of strait of Hormuz
PM says opening waterway is ‘vital’ as he rules out any UK involvement in US moves to blockade strait
Dick’s House of Sport coming to Sarasota. See what it’ll look like
House of Sport, an immersive sports retail concept from Dick’s Sporting Goods, is coming to Sarasota. See photos from recent openings.
The largest orbital compute cluster is open for business
Kepler Communications is flying 40 GPUs in Earth orbit. And its latest customer is Sophia Space.
The largest orbital compute cluster is open for business
Kepler Communications is flying 40 GPUs in Earth orbit. And its latest customer is Sophia Space.
2026's Top 5 Public Couples Mark Entertainment's 'Open Love' Era
2026s Top 5 Public Couples Mark Entertainments Open Love Era From idols to actors, industrys top couples showcase love across genres, sparking fan celebrations
Downtown Evanston to offer Refresh & Renew: Health & Wellness Open House event April 25
Spend April 25 day exploring local fitness and wellness businesses in downtown Evanston — try free mini-sessions, meet owners and instructors, tour spaces
Get a Pokémon TCG: <em>Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising</em> Build & Battle Box Early
Open booster packs from a Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box at a Prerelease event near you.
Why Trump is threatening to blockade a strait that Iran is already blockading
President Donald Trump is threatening to close off the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial waterway that he has repeatedly told Iran must be reopened unconditionally.
Forza Horizon 4 Is Still Packed With Players On Xbox, And It's Easing The Wait For Horizon 6
One final lap of open-world Britain?
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening
The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.
FULL SHOW: Inside INdiana Business 4/12/26
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Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t be enough to solve shipping woes and high oil prices
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is proving to be difficult. But even if the vital waterway fully opens and oil and other necessary cargo sail out, it won’t be enough to return things to normal.
Green Eats healthy cafe opens in Glen Cove
The owners are bullish on vegetables and whole grains, organic wherever possible.
John Donaldson, the father of Denmark's Australian-born Queen Mary, dies at 84
The royal house in Copenhagen says the father of Denmark’s Australian-born Queen Mary, John Donaldson, has died in Tasmania | 1010 WINS
John Donaldson, the father of Denmark's Australian-born Queen Mary, dies at 84
The royal house in Copenhagen says the father of Denmark’s Australian-born Queen Mary, John Donaldson, has died in Tasmania | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Dauphin Island Sea Lab hosts Discovery Day open house
The event offered hands-on science lessons and free aquarium admission for children.
Helene recovery continues as Asheville businesses reopen 18 months later
Many businesses are still rebuilding after Helene, with a few of them having their reopenings this week."Today is the culmination of a year and a half of really
Arsenal Ratings vs. Bournemouth: Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz Drop Stinkers
Arsenal was second best all over the pitch on a dismal afternoon, who missed out on the opportunity to open up a 12 point gap over rivals Manchester City.
Football fans are being taken for a ride by the NFL — the DOJ could stop that
Nobody should be surprised that the Justice Department has opened an investigation into the NFL’s antitrust exemption — but it’s far from clear how this game will end.
University of Idaho opens new meat science center in Moscow
MOSCOW, Idaho — The University of Idaho opened a new meat science innovation center that gives students more room for classes and expands research and production.
Scientists rethink DNA after discovering it can be built from scratch in a process they call 'doodling'
Scientists show DNA polymerases can build long, patterned DNA without a template called "doodling," opening new paths for synthetic biology.
Small business marketplace opens up in Warren
Helping bring communities that are drifting apart back together. That was the push behind the launch of Hands and Heart United’s spring market Saturday afternoon.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
If You Visit JoJo’s Diner, Bring Your Appetite
By Stefan Yablonski Q: When did you open? A: We opened Oct. 1. Q: Did you have a previous business? A: This is my first business ever. Q: So why did you start this? A: I was cooking for people my entire life and I decided I’m just going to try it on my own. And here we are! Q: How’s business been? A: It’s been good. Kind of slow over the winter, but starting to pick up now that the weather is getting better. We have high hopes for spring. We were really hopping over the weekend when it was much nicer out. Q: What’s your best dish? A: Our junkyard plates are our huge specialty. It’s a huge messy plate of goodness. We also have breakfast sandwiches, waffles, smashburgers and more. Q: Do you own this building? A: We lease from Chuck Burger. He’s our landlord. He has been super helpful. He provided all the equipment. I didn’t have to. Q: You’re a breakfast spot? A: We do breakfast and lunch all day. It’s kind of our thing. We are open 7-3 every day except Tuesdays. Q: How big is your staff? A: Currently it’s one other person. It’s just been me on the front end and someone in the kitchen or vice versa. Q: It’s all to go? A: Everything comes out ‘to go’ — served in to-go containers. You can eat inside or you can take it with you. We don’t have to provide extra staff for waitresses and dishwashers and all that. Q: Do you have any business background? A: I did the small business program at the college. But that’s about it. We’re new, but we’re still building. We hope to grow and stay here for a long time.
State floats major mental health funding shift that could jeopardize North Bay mobile crisis teams
The proposed shift would shoulder counties with as much as $130 million annually to sustain the programs. For many, it would open a gap they can’t fill.
Takeaways From the First Big Gathering of Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates
The National Action Network convention showcased similarities and some differences in a wide open field of possible contenders.
Anthropic may soon pass OpenAI on this measure of AI business spending
Anthropic has seen a surge in business spending in recent months, according to Ramp's AI index.
New Myrtle Beach distillery, brewery set for grand opening at Broadway at the Beach
Ole Smoky Distillery and Yee-Haw Brewing Co. are set to open up a joint distillery and brewery at Broadway at the Beach in May, something the brand is calling a "one-of-a-kind" experience for visitors and locals alike.
Brice Barnes raises six-figures in first day as candidate
The North Florida seat she seeks will be open in November.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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