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Former Eagles WR A.J. Brown Predicted to Threaten NFL Record
NFL.com's Bucky Brooks predicts former Eagles WR A.J. Brown could break the 2,000-yard receiving mark with the Patriots in 2026. The post Former Eagles WR A.J. Brown Predicted to Threaten NFL Record appeared first on HEAVY.
Israel’s Vance problem is bigger than JD Vance
Vice President JD Vance has become the face of a Washington that no longer treats Israel as the exception to "America First."
New Details Emerge on Phil Mickelson and Wife Amy’s Family Health Crisis
The cause of the health crisis for Phil and Amy Mickelson has been revealed in a new report. The post New Details Emerge on Phil Mickelson and Wife Amy’s Family Health Crisis appeared first on HEAVY.
Maia Reficco finds love in Mallorca in the first look at Anna Todd's 'The Last Sunrise' (exclusive)
EW has the exclusive first look at Prime Video's 'The Last Sunrise,' director Carlson Young's adaptation of the coming-of-age novel.
This Week in Science: An Earthquake Shift, a Black Hole First, And More!
Our weekly science news roundup.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump. Some science explains why scratching really can make things worse, even if you don't break the skin. University of Pittsburgh researchers put tiny “cones of shame” onto mice to help unravel what happens on a cellular level when an itch ...
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it’s a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it’s a bad idea
WASHINGTON (AP) — You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad? A lot of things can cause itc…
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump. Some science explains why scratching really can make things worse, even if you don't break the skin. University
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. A lot of things can cause itchiness, sometimes serious diseases. Whatever the cause, doctors have l...
NHL Rumors: 3 Red Wings Who Could Be Traded Next
The Detroit Red Wings made a notable trade on Friday, as they traded top goalie prospect Sebastian Cossa to the Utah Mammoth in exchange for the 23rd overall pick of the NHL Entry Draft. The Red Wings then used that pick to select forward J.P. Hurlbert.Seeing Cossa get traded by the Red Wings is not […] The post NHL Rumors: 3 Red Wings Who Could Be Traded Next appeared first on HEAVY.
Cameron Carr discusses joining the Lakers
NBA mock drafts projected Cameron Carr getting selected between 15 and 20 in the first round. Ending up with the Lakers was more than he could have asked for.
Country Star Releases New Album for the First Time in Nearly Three Years
Cody Johnson returns with his first studio album in nearly three years, featuring 16 tracks and deeply personal stories inspired by his Texas roots.
Fallout from USMNT loss to Turkey and previewing the Mbappe-Haaland clash
On today’s show, we look back at the United States’ final group stage match against Turkey and evaluate their readiness for the Round of 32. Manchester City insider Sam Lee joins us to preview the tournament’s first true superstar heavyweight clash as Kylian Mbappe and France square off against Erling Haaland and Norway in a battle for Group I supremacy. Plus, The Athletic’s Jay Harris is back in the studio to break down the latest bracketology, advancement percentages, and qualification permutations for Groups G, H, and I using The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker.
Isha Johansen on the promise and politics of football
The first female president of the Sierra Leone Football Association discusses her new memoir, corruption in the game, and rebuilding through sport.
Former Giannis Role Players Now On Milwaukee Bucks Trading Block
The Milwaukee Bucks are turning the page to a new chapter in their franchise following the trade of Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Milwaukee Bucks. Along with opening a new era, the Bucks are also looking to move on from some of their role players during the team’s Giannis phase. Among them are Kyle Kuzma and […] The post Former Giannis Role Players Now On Milwaukee Bucks Trading Block appeared first on HEAVY.
Caleb Williams Calls Out NFL, Echoes Bold George Kittle Message
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is already a leader of his team, and now he is leading with regards to the entire NFL. The post Caleb Williams Calls Out NFL, Echoes Bold George Kittle Message appeared first on HEAVY.
Ducks move into first round, select skill in Klepov, Nordmark
Anaheim jumped back into the first-round with two picks acquired in the Mason McTavish deal, and the Ducks went for scoring punch in Nikita Klepov and Marcus Nordmark.
49ers News: Gotta let the Bosa Brothers dream go…
Adam Schefter believes Joey Bosa has played his last down in the NFL“Bosa turns 31 in July. Last year was the first time he appeared in double-digit games since 2021. The 49ers would pursue an edge rusher if Nick or Mykel Williams are behind the 8-ball on their rehab. Some believe Mykel begins the season […]
Hopewell's James Armstrong is the first sophomore to win Post-Gazette Athlete of the Year
James Armstrong is a teenager who doesn’t do well with downtime. Armstrong has a summer job as a maintenance worker at schools in the Ambridge Area...
Browns Warned Over Deshaun Watson Decision
The Cleveland Browns can insist that their quarterback competition between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders will be decided on the field, but the decision will not be made in a vacuum. The post Browns Warned Over Deshaun Watson Decision appeared first on HEAVY.
Stenberg Excited To Join Sharks, Believes He’s NHL-Ready
Ivar Stenberg says he is ready to be in the NHL next season. After being drafted No. 2 overall by the San Jose Sharks, he becomes yet another another big-name, highly-skilled player in their under-23 group. “They have something really good going on, so super happy to join a special group,” Stenberg said. The 5-foot-11 […] The post Stenberg Excited To Join Sharks, Believes He’s NHL-Ready appeared first on San Jose Hockey Now.
No debut, but loud cheers: Belfast crowd shows love for Vaibhav Sooryavanshi
Teenage sensation Vaibhav Sooryavanshi's India debut is still pending, but the focus shifted to Ireland's historic 34-run victory in the first T20I. Despite the loss, Shreyas Iyer vowed a strong comeback. Ireland's debutants impressed, with Jai Moondra and Matt Hollard making immediate impacts, while Abhishek Sharma's quickfire fifty wasn't enough for India.
Steelers’ Drew Allar Addresses Rookie Role Behind Aaron Rodgers
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Drew Allar spoke out on his place behind Aaron Rodgers on the team's depth chart entering 2026 NFL training camp. The post Steelers’ Drew Allar Addresses Rookie Role Behind Aaron Rodgers appeared first on HEAVY.
LVMH and Accor's Orient Express sets its sights on new tech billionaire class
Shuttling across the French and Italian Riviera, Orient Express's first giant yacht aims to attract a new class of billionaire.
We've Got Our First Look at Every Galaxy Watch 9 Band Before Unpacked
Samsung is preparing to announce its new smartwatch next month, the Galaxy Watch 9. Which we are also expecting to come with the Galaxy Watch Ultra 2
Sabres select defenseman Daxon Rudolph in first round of NHL draft
Rudolph played in 68 games with the Prince Albert Raiders of the Western Hockey League last season, scoring 78 points.
Rangers Land 37-Goal Star In Blockbuster Trade With Vegas
The New York Rangers have added a new star forward to their roster.According to TSN’s Darren Dreger, the Rangers have acquired forward Pavel Dorofeyev from the Vegas Golden Knights.Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman later added that the Rangers are sending the 26th pick of the 2026 Entry Draft, the 92nd pick of this year’s draft, and their […] The post Rangers Land 37-Goal Star In Blockbuster Trade With Vegas appeared first on HEAVY.
Clark County reports first mosquitoes testing positive for West Nile virus, health distric
First Bend Block Party draws crowds to Central District
Live music, art, food and fun are taking over Bend’s Central District for the first Bend Block Party. Come down to Second Street near Open Space and check it out before 9 p.m. today!
Sarah Ferguson visited Epstein in jail twice amid email exchanges: Report
A new report suggests that Sarah Ferguson visited Jeffrey Epstein twice in 2009 during his first prison sentence in Florida.
Kern County Public Health reports first detection West Nile virus for 2026
Kern County health officials have confirmed the first mosquito sample of the year has tested positive for West Nile virus, a development that is prompting
Tom Hardy is dropping a rap album amid his uncertain future on 'MobLand'
As Tom Hardy navigates rumors of his 'MobLand' exit, he's stepped into the studio to release his first rap album.
EA Sports College Football 27 Will Be Without Two Surprising Stars
One of the most anticipated video game releases of the year is set to arrive on July 9 when EA Sports releases College Football 27 worldwide.This marks the third consecutive annual release since the series returned after an 11-year hiatus.Players who want to be included in the game must actively opt in through a structured […] The post EA Sports College Football 27 Will Be Without Two Surprising Stars appeared first on HEAVY.
PlayStation Is Deleting Terminator 2 And 550 Other Movies
Movies like Rambo: First Blood, Bridget Jones' Diary and The Deer Hunter are all being unceremoniously removed
PlayStation hardware sales fall to their lowest May total since 2000
Price rises hit Sony's console sales, but 007 First Light and Switch 2 help US game spending to grow 3%
‘Under the Radar’ Cowboys Free Agent Predicted for Major Payday
Bleacher Report predicts Dallas Cowboys CB Cobie Durant could land a major payday in 2027 with a standout season. The post ‘Under the Radar’ Cowboys Free Agent Predicted for Major Payday appeared first on HEAVY.
Kristen Stewart and Alia Shawkat are 'The Wrong Girls' in first look at new stoner comedy (exclusive)
EW has your exclusive first look at the stoner comedy 'The Wrong Girls' from writer-director Dylan Meyer, starring Kristen Stewart, Alia Shawkat, LaKeith Stanfield, Seth Rogen, and Kate McKinnon.
Kristen Stewart and Alia Shawkat are “The Wrong Girls” in first look at new stoner comedy (exclusive)
LaKeith Stanfield, Seth Rogen, Kate McKinnon, and Geena Davis also star in the Neon film.
Take an 8-Minute Gameplay Tour of the Remade Havana in Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced
Join Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced lead level designer Jean Strachen as she takes you on an eight-minute gameplay tour of Havana. See what it looks like now in the gorgeous new remake that will be released for PC, PS5, and Xbox Series X|S on July 9.
Dartmouth Health reports $63.5M deficit in first quarter
Dartmouth Health is reporting a nearly $63.5 million deficit for the first quarter.
Rangers trade Brett Berard to Canadiens for William Trudeau: Sources
The deal marked the first trade between Rangers team president Chris Drury and his predecessor, the Canadiens' Jeff Gorton.
Two Yankees Pitching Prospects ‘Turning Heads’ in Minors This Year
The old saying is you can never have enough pitching, which the New York Yankees have apparently taken to heart. The Yankees have a stockpile of potential starting-pitching arms in the minor leagues, including Elmer Rodriguez, and two “head turning” prospects, Ben Hess and Chase Hampton. The Yankees lead the majors in team ERA (3.30) […] The post Two Yankees Pitching Prospects ‘Turning Heads’ in Minors This Year appeared first on HEAVY.
Apple’s Touch MacBook to Use M5 Pro and Max Chips, With M7 Models to Follow
Apple Inc.’s first-ever touch-screen laptop will rely on the company’s current high-end M5 chips, rather than next-generation silicon, though the company is working on a follow-up model with future M7 processors.
TLC stage musical “CrazySexyCool” reveals exclusive first look images of T-Boz, Left Eye, and Chilli
The 1990s girl group gets their story told on stage.
iPhone 18 Pro and Foldable iPhone Tipped to Get Price Hikes Too
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro lineup and its first foldable iPhone will launch at higher prices than originally predicted this September, according to several known Chinese leakers.
Democrats call on Mills administration to settle pay dispute
The MSEA is seeking a 2.5% wage increase in the first year, with a $1,250 signing bonus. For year two, the union wants a 3% increase.
Nintendo Switch 2 ends first full year in the U.S. at nearly 6 million units sold, second fastest-selling video game system
Following the latest U.S. sales report from Circana, we have information about the first full-year sales of Nintendo Switch 2. The console ended its first twelve months at 5.9 million units sold. According to Circana, it’s the second fastest-selling video game system in the U.S. with tracked history dating back to 1995. The only other platform to outdo it was...
Gavin Newsom opposes a California wealth tax. He’s proposing a national billionaire tax instead
California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday proposed a national tax on billionaires that he says is the first part of an “economic reset for America” agenda, which aides explicitly say is part of his considering to launch a presidential campaign.
With Rico Dowdle gone, Panthers need production from backup RBs
Carolina's run-first offense will need backups Jonathon Brooks, Trevor Etienne and AJ Dillon to support the RB1.
ConcernedApe Explains Why He's Shown So Little Of Haunted Chocolatier: 'I Would Rather Serve A Fully Baked Bread'
Eric Barone posted his first blog update in six months yesterday to reassure fans he's still hard at work.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
The Science Of Speed: How Mizuno’s Nanoalloy Face Changes What’s Possible In Driver Design
Mizuno is the first company to put a functional polymer layer in front of a driver face. The implications go well beyond ball speed. For most of the
Outdoor recreation study highlights economic challenges for Wyoming businesses
The report represents the first comprehensive study of the state’s outdoor recreation economy. Businesses ranked hiring, climate and marketing as top concerns.
Emily Wilcox Named Assistant Athletic Director for Sports Communications
Emily Wilcox has been named Assistant Athletic Director for Sports Communications. Her first day is slated for July 13.
First Look: Breguet Releases 3 new Tourbillon Watches for the 225th Anniversary of its Invention
New takes on the Breguet Classique Tourbillon Sidéral, the Tradition Tourbillon and the Marine Tourbillon Équation Marchante.
2026 NHL Mock Draft
Ahead of tonight’s NHL draft, let’s take a stab at how the first round could play out tonight. First, a moment of silence for our near miss last year – when we tried to predict that Kyle Dubas would go ‘off the board’ with a high pick on a WHL center that no one saw […]
Williams to begin Wimbledon comeback against Joint
American superstar Serena Williams will make her highly-anticipated singles comeback at Wimbledon against Australia's Maya Joint in the first round.
Apple orders 9x fewer display panels for the foldable iPhone Ultra than for the iPhone 18 Pro
Reportedly, Cupertino orders "only" 10 million panels for its first-ever foldable phone.
Fitbit Air's first update is already rolling out, and it could finally fix its biggest annoyance
Google has started rolling out the Fitbit Air's first firmware update since launch. This update promises bug fixes and improvements.
Hollywood gets into the microdrama race as mobile-first storytelling draws stars and major studios
Mobile-first serialized storytelling is rapidly becoming one of entertainment's fastest-growing businesses.
Hollywood gets into the microdrama race as mobile-first storytelling draws stars and major studios
While much of Hollywood was consumed by the streaming wars, Issa Rae was studying a different mode of entertainment thousands of miles away: microdramas. No stranger to creating a successful online s...
UFC Baku early weigh ins results
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will stage its early and official weigh ins at 9 a.m. local time for this weekend’s UFC Baku mixed martial arts (MMA) event on Paramount+. Unfortunately for stateside fight fans, Baku is eight hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time, so most of us will be asleep by the time the first […]
Salpointe flag football QB named MaxPreps Freshman of the Year
It is the first year that MaxPreps is putting together an All-American team as the sport continues to gain popularity.
👀 Brazil learn first World Cup knockout opponents
The Brazil National Team already knows who it will face in the FIFA World Cup Round of 32.Vini Jr., Matheus Cunha & Co. will take on Japan in their first knockout match of the World Cup. Japan finish...
Health officials: State's first West Nile virus-positive mosquito of the year found in Berkshires
“With warmer weather and summer officially beginning this week, it is the time of year when we typically begin detecting West Nile virus in mosquito populations,” a public health official said.
Lionel Richie postpones concert at United Center in Chicago following health scare at Minnesota show
Lionel Richie has postponed his concert this week at the United Center in Chicago following his health scare at during his first performance in a tour with Earth, Wind and Fire.
M6 MacBook Pro Expected This Year With Apple's First 2nm Chip
Apple could launch an updated base model 14-inch MacBook Pro with an M6 chip as soon as this year, reports Bloomberg. There could also be M6 chip updates for the Mac mini, iMac, and MacBook Air, but Apple is testing an M6 MacBook Pro. Apple plans to introduce the M6 in late 2026, and for the first time, it will be a standalone chip. Apple is not working on M6 Pro or M6 Max chips, and will hold off on higher-end chip options until the M7 series launches in 2027.
Golden State Valkyries employee named in Sports Business Journal's Forty under 40 list
The Golden State Valkyries have created a winning culture on and off the court. After making WNBA history last season becoming the first expansion team to reach the playoffs, the success is also extending throughout the organization.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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