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Recently-sued Highgrove Holdings president defends himself, business
The lawsuit, filed by the Milwaukee City Attorney on March 26, is asking a judge to declare Highgrove properties a public nuisance.
He Sold His Grass-Fed Jerky Company for Millions. Then He Started One of the Hardest Businesses in Food.
Robby Sansom didn't need another company after Epic Provisions. But visitors to a Texas ranch kept asking one question he couldn't answer.
Kash Patel Sues The Atlantic for $250 Million Over Article Claiming Excessive Drinking
Mr. Patel sued the publication for defamation, asking for $250 million in damages. A spokeswoman for The Atlantic called the suit “meritless.”
Pinwheels and the ‘lobster district’: How Virginia Democrats drew up a US House map to all but lock out Republicans
Virginia Democrats hope the new congressional map they’re asking voters to approve Tuesday will flip four Republican House districts, delivering 10 of 11 seats in a state Vice President Kamala Harris won with just 52% of the vote in 2024. To do it, they want to dramatically rework entire sections of the state, slicing up deep blue districts in the Washington, DC, suburbs and around Richmond, and creating a new district running along the Blue Ridge Mountains that connects liberal cities. That’s required something called the “lobster district,” stretching from northern Virginia into two “pincers” grabbing up rural territory.
Democrats are 'playing petty politics': GOP lawmaker
Rep. Sheri Biggs, R-S.C., condemns Democrats for playing 'petty politics' with DHS funding, risking national security, on 'Fox News Live.'
Asking the Wrong Questions About Hasan Piker
The problem isn’t whether to engage with influencers, but how to.
JD Vance could yet save his political skin. But it will mean turning on Trump
The vice-president has endured his most humiliating – and damaging – week as his boss’s fall guy. How much more can Maga’s great hope take? asks Guardian foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall
Flyers hold off Penguins 3-2 for Game 1 win
Travis Sanheim scored the go-ahead goal midway through the third period and the Philadelphia Flyers announced their return to the playoffs with a 3-2 win over Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday night. Philadelphia pulled off a stunner in the opener when Sanheim split a pair of Penguins at the top of the zone, glided down the slot and then fired the puck by Stuart Skinner. Porter Martone, the Flyers’ 19-year-old rookie forward, provided some needed insurance when he beat Skinner on a wrist shot with 2:37 to play.
Can I trust health advice from an AI chatbot?
Abi has had very mixed results when asking a chatbot for guidance about her health issues.
Stop asking AI for life advice
Recent studies confirm that you're better off finding a human therapist.
Trump envoy faces 'sweeping' investigation over business ties, diplomatic role
Democratic U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin launched what he described as a "sweeping" investigation into U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, over a potential conflict of interest, according to an April 17 press release. The inquiry focuses on Kushner's dual role as a diplomatic intermediary and head of a private equity firm, raising questions about whether his financial ties could influence U.S. foreign policy decisions. Kushner has played a central role in Trum
MLB Broadcaster Defends AI Usage After Internet Pile on Following Health Struggles
MLB broadcaster Angie Mentink defended her use of AI after a viral video showed her asking for questions to ask after a 'tough loss' on Thursday, April 16. Mentink has suffered a stroke two months prior.
Caitlyn Jenner slammed over asking Donald Trump for help changing passport gender
'The View' star Ana Navarro slammed Caitlyn Jenner for asking Donald Trump for help after her passport was changed to reflect the gender she was assigned at birth: 'Cry me a f---ing river.'
In asking sources around the league Wednesday ahead of …
In asking sources around the league Wednesday ahead of …
Why some tech leaders are sounding the alarm about Colorado’s ‘deteriorating’ business climate
Colorado enjoyed a reputation of being business-friendly in recent decades. But some in the business community worry that too much regulation is hurting the state’s ability to attract new companies. And they’re asking the governor for help.
Raskin v Moore: what do the stats say?
Midfielder Nicolas Raskin and on-loan Tottenham winger Mikey Moore have split opinion among fans over who should be Rangers player of the year. Raskin, who was phased out under previous boss Russell Martin, has become a key player in Danny Rohl's team as Rangers continue their push for the league title. Moore, at just 18 years old, has also been impressing since joining on a temporary spell from the English Premier League outfit.
Red hair gene favoured by natural selection over last 10,000 years, study finds
Scientists suggest red hair and fair skin were favoured for vitamin D efficiency in study focused on whether human evolution plateaued after advent of agriculture
Missouri Hemp Businesses Ask Governor To Veto Bill That Would 'Eliminate' The Industry
“It would effectively eliminate an entire industry in Missouri—the hemp industry—regardless of any federal change in legislation.” By Rebecca Rivas, Missouri Independenta Gov. Mike Kehoe’s (R) office received 10,000 handwritten letters Tuesday asking him to veto a Missouri bill that would impose a statewide ban on intoxicating hemp products. The letters, gathered in just 10 […]
AG Keith Ellison seeks public comment on Sutter Health’s acquisition of Allina Health
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison is asking for the community to weigh in on a proposed acquisition of Allina Health by Sutter Health.
Dems file 25th Amendment bill amid Trump outbursts
The bill was introduced by Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.)
Asking Eric: My brother and I are estranged due to political disagreements
In today's Asking Eric column, R. Eric Thomas responds to someone who isn't sure they can repair their broken relationship with their brother.
'It's been so stressful': Bend restaurant loses 90% of business after Shilo Inn closure
"IT'S BEEN SO STRESSFUL": A Bend restaurant says business dropped 90% after the Shilo Inn closed next door, and many people don’t realize it’s still open. The owner is asking the community to stop by and show support.
Mayor Jones seeks business input on zoning rules for private detention facilities
SAN ANTONIO - Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones is asking the city’s economic development leaders to weigh in on a proposed zoning ordinance that would regulate where non-
NY businesses want ‘entertainment zones' during World Cup
New York businesses are asking for “entertainment zones” this summer for the World Cup mania. NBC New York’s Gus Rosendale reports.
Trump’s mental acuity in question amid pattern of erratic behavior
Each moment on its own … maybe you brush it off. But together, people are asking: what exactly are we watching?
Joey Fatone lost power to his house on Christmas because he couldn't pay the bill: 'I was asking people for money' (exclusive sneak peek)
Joey Fatone reveals in an exclusive 'Boy Band Confidential' sneak peek that the power company shut off his lights on Christmas when he was near bankruptcy. 'I had family over at my house. Good thing I had the water, but the power just went pew,' he tells EW.
Asking Eric: ‘Extremely online’ girlfriend shares too much
My friend sent me some of the links ... it wasn’t bad stuff, per se. Just her talking about going out to dinner with me or complaining about how I sleep ...
Pinckney-area pet store asking the community to support local
The store has been open for over 13 years and sells items for dogs, cats, horses, reptiles, indoor and outdoor birds and other small animals.
🥐Champions matchday, clash at Wembley... Tuesday's 5️⃣ stories
Champions League quarter-final second legs, a new round in the Libertadores, or a women’s England-Spain at Wembley. I’m not asking you to outdo me, just match me. The end of the Atleti-Barça tril...
Asking Eric: ‘Very online’ girlfriend shares too much with strangers
Letter writer is weirded out by strangers replying to girlfriend’s posts about them.
Julie’s new AI chatbot aims to fix a major gap in women’s health information
The emergency contraception brand is using a chatbot to answer the questions Gen Z is already asking online.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to exit politics over sexual assault allegations
An expanding number of Democrats, including fellow Californians, are asking their House colleague to quit his campaign for governor and resign from Congress.
Illinois Court Hears Final Lawsuit Challenging Marijuana Social Equity Business Licensing Lottery
“We just want a fair shot. We’re not asking for anything special, no special privileges, but what they promised from the very beginning.” By Hannah Meisel, Capitol News Illinois Nearly seven years after Illinois lawmakers approved recreational cannabis legalization, applicants who lost out on coveted business licenses are still battling the state in court, alleging […]
Finally, a Foldable That Fits: Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide Leaks a Massive 4:3 Screen Upgrade
Samsung Galaxy Z Wide Fold rumor points to a 4:3 inner display; One UI animations may target tablet-like multitasking in 2026.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Peru's election: A battle for the Presidency amid political chaos and crime
With 35 candidates in the race, Peru is set to elect its 9th president in less than a decade. Amid rising corruption and crime, voters are left asking: Can this election finally break the cycle?
Business booming for local skincare business after relocation
The new store is more open, allowing customers to see products being made as they shop.
Jodi Daniel Quoted by KFF Health News and CNN on Healthcare Privacy Concerns
Wilson Sonsini partner Jodi Daniel was recently quoted in a KFF Health News article, which was also featured by CNN. The piece, titled "Trump’s Personnel Agency Is Asking for Federal Workers’ Medical…
PC Industry In Dire Straits, 'Asking You to Own Nothing and Be Happy,’ Says Framework CEO
At least one laptop maker is saying what PC owners have all been thinking.
Study finds acne scarring linked to mental health impacts; Doctors urge early treatment
Acne scars may affect more than your skin — new research shows deeper impact.
Unless you reboot every once in a while, your Mac will get kicked offline every 49 days
A new bug has been discovered that breaks all Mac networking every 49 days, 17 hours, two minutes, and 47 seconds. It's simple to get around the bug, though.
Virginia Democrats Go All-In on Gerrymandering (With Some Regrets)
They’re asking voters to ruthlessly gerrymander Virginia.
Hungry mosquitoes, a student volunteer and a mesh suit. All for science
“Four minutes is too long. ” That’s the note undergraduate Chris Zuo sent me along with photos of countless mosquito bites on his bare skin.
Banner Health asks for help identifying man hit by car
Banner Health is asking for the public's help identifying a man who was hit by a car in west Phoenix earlier this year.
Video shows suspect using crowbar to steal checks from Upstate business
Detectives are asking the public for help identifying a suspect who broke into a drop box and stole checks from a local business.
Banner Health seeks help identifying man hit by car in central Phoenix
Banner Health is asking for the public’s help in identifying a severely injured man who was hit by a car in central Phoenix earlier this year.
Keratin may act as a 'brake' for skin inflammation, pointing to potential treatments
Keratin has been linked to skin diseases and inflammation in the past, but now, a new study may have uncovered one reason why.
Chris Collins puts more than $900K toward CD 19 campaign
The former New York Congressman put substantial skin the game.
Trump’s personnel agency is asking for federal workers’ medical records
The Trump administration is quietly seeking unprecedented access to medical records for millions of federal workers and retirees, and their families.
Trump’s Personnel Agency Is Asking for Federal Workers’ Medical Records
By Amanda Seitz and Maia Rosenfeld | KFF Health News The Trump administration is quietly seeking unprecedented access to medical records for millions of federal workers and retirees, and their families. A brief notice from the Office of Personnel Management could dramatically change which personally ...
The Viral “Office Air” Theory Explained: Why Your Skin and Hair Change During the Workday
Can “office air” really affect how you look? Experts explain how indoor environments impact skin, hair, and overall appearance throughout the workday.
Trump’s Personnel Agency Is Asking for Federal Workers’ Medical Records
The administration is asking insurers that cover federal employees and retirees to hand over details about their medical visits, their pharmacy claims, and more.
Think Twice Before Asking ChatGPT About Your Health
Obsessively Googling symptoms is bad. Going down an AI rabbit hole may be worse.
Students pay when schools skimp on mental health counselors
A group of middle school students' legislative bill draft asking for more mental health support should be a wake-up call for everyone. It was for us.
Penguins/Panthers Recap: Pens take care of business, beat Florida 5-2, close in on playoff spot
Pregame The Penguins use the same lineup from yesterday — including in net with Arturs Silovs playing. Taylor Gauthier got the quick call up from Wheeling last minute to serve as backup, Stuart Skinner was unavailable with an upper body injury. The visiting Panthers are using this lineup, including starting Daniil Tarasov after he mopped […]
'Little belief remaining for Slot's side at present'
A year ago today, Liverpool fans were still basking in the glow of a Merseyside derby win that took them to the brink of the Premier League title. Nobody that day would have believed that less than 12 months on, a fanbase so united behind its team and its manager would be, at best, apathetic as to whether Arne Slot remains in the job. Saturday's harrowing 4-0 defeat at Manchester City in the FA Cup quarter-finals was just the latest in an ever-growing list of dismal days for Liverpool and their supporters in a season most cannot wait to see the back of.
North Shore businesses suffer in aftermath of Kona-low storms
Spring break is typically busy at Sharlyn Foo’s budget accommodations in Haleiwa. But last month, instead of welcoming surfers and families, Foo spent her days canceling reservations, refunding payments and responding to repeated calls from travelers asking whether Oahu’s North Shore was even open.
Laie slipper business needs help saving inventory after Kona low flooding
J-Slips Hawaii faces heavy losses from Kona low flooding and is asking for volunteers to help clean and restore affected inventory.
NIH would get $5 billion cut under Trump’s 2027 budget, but Congress unlikely to go along
The White House is asking Congress to cut $5 billion from the National Institutes of Health and downsize the number of institutes and centers from 27 to 22
Trump Budget Seeks to Fund NASA’s Lunar Base, Cut Total Spending
The White House is once again asking Congress to cut NASA’s science budget nearly in half, mimicking an effort last year that was rejected by lawmakers.
What is the skinny budget and what does it mean for NASA?
The White House Office of Management and Budget has released its budget for fiscal year 2027. Here's what it includes, and what it means for NASA.
Exclusive: US upends global supply program for malaria and HIV amid warnings of gaps
The U.S. is upending the way it delivers medical supplies for diseases such as HIV and malaria to lower-income countries, according to seven sources and an internal email, risking a second dislocation of life-saving services in just over a year.
Penguins/Lightning Recap: Pens swamped by Tampa, lose 6-3
Pregame The Penguins welcome back Bryan Rust from injury and shake up the lines a little to put Rickard Rakell back at center and put Ben Kindel up with Evgeni Malkin. Stuart Skinner gets a second-straight game in net. Their hosts are rolling with this lineup. First period Tampa starts off the game hot getting […]
Strange “elephant skin” rocks reveal ancient life in the dark ocean
A puzzling wrinkled rock formation in Morocco has led scientists to rethink where ancient microbes could live. Instead of shallow, sunlit waters, these microbes may have thrived deep in the ocean, fueled by chemicals delivered by underwater landslides. The discovery suggests that dark, nutrient-rich environments hosted thriving ecosystems much earlier than expected. It also raises the possibility that many similar fossils have been overlooked or misinterpreted.
'Any Update Is a Bonus Not a Right' Says Peak Dev in Response to 'Lazy Dev Cycle' Accusations
The developer of 2025 surprise indie "friendslop" darling Peak is asking players to be a little more gracious to the studio when requesting updates, saying, "Neither us or [co-developer] Aggro Crab are live service studios, any update is a bonus not a right."
Business owner spends nearly five decades ‘multi-tasking’ in Auburn
Connie Dorsch, 79, provides services related to upholstery, quilting, floor coverings, engravings and more. She started this business with her husband in 1977.
Business owner spends nearly five decades ‘multi-tasking’ in Auburn
Connie Dorsch, 79, provides services related to upholstery, quilting, floor coverings, engravings and more. She started this business with her husband in 1977.
The Politics Hour: Supreme Court's birthright citizenship case and why the D.C. budget is delayed
U.S. Rep. Jamie Raskin on the Supreme Court case on birthright citizenship. Plus, D.C. Council Chair Phil Mendelson on a busy week for lawmakers, including veto overrides and emergency legislation.
Your guide to April entertainment in Erie, Pa.
We’ve compiled a list of suggestions for what to do in the month of April from comedy shows to musicals and more. See the options here.
Tuscaloosa business owner finding ways to handle rising gasoline prices
WBRC is On Your Side asking if any of those costs are being passed on to you.
Tuscaloosa business owner found a way to handle rising gasoline prices
WBRC is On Your Side asking if any of those costs are being passed on to you.
Hydrinity Skincare CEO On Why Science Beats Hype
As trends come and go, the brand’s momentum suggests that the skincare industry may be returning to what actually works — thanks to science.
We’re Spending Billions on Collagen. Here’s What the Science Actually Says
We’re spending billions on powders and gummies, but is it a waste of money? Discover what recent clinical studies from Harvard and FSU reveal about collagen's actual impact on skin, joints, and aging.
Surprising study shows Alzheimer's may start in the body instead of the brain, a discovery that turns medical science upside down
Alzheimer’s disease may begin outside the brain, with inflammation in organs like the skin, lungs, and gut decades before symptoms appear.
Thousands of Kids Enter Foster Care for Mental Health Care
The Imprint did a first-ever survey of all 50 states, asking how often parents voluntarily turn their kids over to the child welfare system.
This CBS Graduate Student Studies How Bodies Regrow
Iris Juanico was drawn to science by her innate curiosity. “I never stop asking questions,” said Juanico, with a laugh. “I was drawn to science as a child because it involves asking a lot of questions.”
New Siri multitasking upgrade detailed in latest iOS 27 report
Siri may not be any better in iOS 26.5 beta, but we’re continuing to learn a lot more about iOS...
Verona police asking for help identifying man accused of threatening business
The Verona Police Department is asking for assistance in identifying a person accused of threatening a business.
Stanford scientists create shape-shifting material that changes color and texture like an octopus
A new shape-shifting material can change both its texture and color in seconds, inspired by the camouflage abilities of octopuses. By precisely controlling how a polymer swells with water, researchers can create detailed, reversible patterns at the nanoscale. The material can even mimic realistic surfaces and dynamically adjust how it reflects light. In the future, AI could allow it to automatically blend into its surroundings.
January 6 protesters seek millions in court for ‘physical and emotional injuries’
Several people who were at the US Capitol during the January 6, 2021, insurrection are suing the police agencies that worked to defend the building that day, asking a federal court to award them millions of dollars in damages for the “physical and emotional injuries” they say were inflicted on them by law enforcement.
Championing Mental Health Equity: Liza Li’s Journey from Luskin to Community Impact
Liza Li reflects on fellowship recognition, UCLA Luskin training, and her commitment to culturally responsive mental health care for older adults and AAPI communities.
“Don’t take me to the hospital”: Undocumented immigrants in Texas are delaying medical care
Since Gov. Greg Abbott ordered Texas hospitals to start asking patients for their citizenship status in November 2024, reported visits by undocumented immigrants have dropped.
Salmon sperm to bird droppings: The science behind bizarre skincare rituals
A flurry of bizarre skincare rituals are trending on social media. But does the scientific research suggest they can be taken at face value?
Salmon sperm to bird droppings: The science behind bizarre skincare rituals
A flurry of bizarre skincare rituals are trending on social media. But does the scientific research suggest they can be taken at face value?
Marc Skinner: Man United’s thoughts on coach’s performance revealed
Manchester United Women’s season has begun to unravel somewhat.Historic runThe Red Devils have made history in their first ever Champions League campaign.They impressively won four matches out of si...
Health Workers: Please Take Our Survey
I'm asking patient-facing health workers to share their perspectives about their own mental health.
Epic Lays Off Terminally Ill Employee Who Can't Get Life Insurance
The family is asking for help as it navigates the unthinkable
Life with TSW: 'Our skin is falling off and no-one can tell us why '
Posts with #TSW have had over a billion views on TikTok, sparking research into this mystery skin condition.
Former Valve writer hits out at Epic Games layoffs: "It's not like they're a publicly traded company. It's not like there's some need to hit the stock market thing. This is Tim"
Prolific former Valve writer, Chet Faliszek, has hit out at Epic Games founder Tim Sweeney, asking why anyone at Epic "…
Quincy Jones’s Domed Bel-Air Mansion Gets Another Multimillion-Dollar Price Cut
The enormous house built for the music producer is now asking $39.995 million
Borderlands 4's Mad Ellie expansion plummets into the red as players reject $30 price tag
Borderlands 4 Story Pack 1, Mad Ellie and the Vault of the Damned, comes alongside new Vault Hunter C4SH, but its asking price is too high.
Henrico business robbed at knifepoint, police searching for suspect
A Henrico County business was robbed at knifepoint in mid-February, with police asking the public for help identifying the person responsible.
Tallahassee Police Department launches voluntary program to access to home, business security cameras
The Tallahassee Police Department and other local law enforcement agencies are asking people to sign up for a new program that would give them access to your cameras in order to fight crime.
The Startup Selling Full-Body Scans as the Future of Health Care
Step into the machine at Neko Health or one of its rivals to check for skin cancer, diabetes or stroke risk. Is this the next frontier in preventative health care, or something your primary care physician would rather you avoid?
Android 17 Beta 3 finally brings the desktop multitasking we’ve been waiting for
The latest beta turns your phone into a mini desktop with floating apps.