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State budget will provide raises for prison staff
“For too long, we have been running this agency without the money to pay our staff, fix our prisons or rehabilitate our inmates,” Secretary of the Department of Adult Correction Leslie Dismukes says.
AHA responds to CMS on potential modifications to ACA’s Essential Health Benefits
The AHA July 15 responded to a request for information from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services on the Affordable Care Act’s Essential Health Benefits framework, which creates the guardrails for defining comprehensive insurance coverage.
Thermodynamic Computers Go With the (Energy) Flow
Today’s computers need safeguards against random energy fluctuations. Thermodynamic computers would put those fluctuations to use.
Indonesia's New Capital Is Changing the Borneo Rainforest Forever. Science is Listening to the Change
Indonesia is building a new capital city in the heart of Borneo to replace sinking Jakarta. As construction transforms one of the world's most biodiverse rainforests, scientists and their indigenous collaborators are racing to record the sounds of the forest—and preserve generations of ecological knowledge before it's lost.
Ralph Scott describes his early role with Tennessee basketball
Freshman wing Ralph Scott explains what Tennessee basketball is asking of him early in his career, from guarding the ball to bringing energy and hard defense.
Kendrick Perkins’ bold Anthony Edwards statement causes a stir
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ trade for LaMelo Ball turned them into championship contenders in some fans and analysts’ eyes. Others believe the star point guard will bring out the best in Anthony Edwards, helping him win the NBA‘s highest individual award.…
TMA calls for new guardrails on betting-style apps as sports betting concerns grow
A new proposal from the Texas Medical Association is taking aim at online prediction market platforms, calling for more guardrails to protect young users from gambling-like behavior.
Fall sports updates and information
The fall sports season will be here before we know it! Here are some key summer details for students and families as we look forward to the coming season. Registration begins: High school football (grades 9-12): July 17 All other high school fall sports (grades 9-12): July 24 Modified football (grades 7-8): July 27 All other modified fall sports (grades 7-8): July 31 Please register via Final Forms. Sports physicals: All student-athletes interested in trying out for a fall sport must have an up-to-date physical submitted to Final Forms in advance of the first day of tryouts and practices. Families are encouraged to get a completed physical from their child's physician. If you are unable to get a physical from your child's physician, you can schedule a physical with Whitney Young's school-based health center by calling (518) 573-2556. Appointments will be available at Albany High School in room 4253 during July on the following dates: Thursday, July 16 between 8:30 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 21 between 8:30 a.m. and 4:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 28 between 8:30 a.m. and 4:30 p.m. Thursday, July 30 between 8:30 a.m. and 4:30 p.m. Again, you must call (518) 573-2556 to schedule your appointment and receive instructions. Whitney Young does require paperwork that must be filled out by the child's parent or guardian in order for them to be seen by the provider. Tryouts & practices begin: High school football (grades 9-12): Aug. 17 All other high school fall sports (grades 9-12): Aug. 24 Modified football (grades 7-8): Aug. 27 All other modified fall sports (grades 7-8): Aug. 31 High school student-athletes are encouraged to take part in our open gym sessions during July and August in preparation for the fall sports season. Stay tuned for fall practice schedules and competition schedules, which will be posted on our Athletics page! If you have additional questions, please contact the Athletics Department at (518) 475-6310. Let's go Falcons!
Guardians News: Three Positives From the Week of July 5th
As we reach the halfway point of the season, the Guards sit in first place.
New York to become first state to enact AI data center moratorium
"Before it goes any further, I need safeguards in place to protect New Yorkers," said New York Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Utah Jazz guard Trey Alexander was taken from the …
Utah Jazz guard Trey Alexander was taken from the …
Nigel Farage turned down taxpayer-funded security including bodyguard, car and driver last year
The head of Reform UK refused the security, which was a similar level to that received by the leader of the opposition, because he considered it inadequate
CJ McCollum Shares Honest Thoughts on Knicks Winning NBA Championship
The Hawks guard credits the Knicks for figuring things out during their title run, but believes Atlanta proved it belongs among the East's best.
Darline Graham Nordone: Lindsey Graham’s sister and interim US senator
Nordone was 13 when brother became her legal guardian – and was a key presence as he rose in the Republican ranks
iOS 26.6 Will Warn You About Malicious iMessages
Apple is adding a new warning about malicious iMessages in iOS 26.6, according to X user @limpless_skelly, who shared a mockup of the notification. The pop-up will warn users that a message could be trying to harm their iPhone or compromise their privacy. Apple asks users to share the message so it can guard against future attacks, and there are "Not Now," "Share With Apple," and "Don't Report" options to tap.
Luka Dončić Pushed for Lakers’ Move to Acquire Walker Kessler
The superstar point guard prioritized Kessler’s elite rim protection, leading Los Angeles to sacrifice massive future draft capital and $130 million to secure his ideal pick-and-roll partner.
A New Habitat at the Bottom of the Ocean Is Waiting for Its First Aquanauts
Four scientists could soon live and work beneath the Florida Keys for days.
Lindsey Graham Was Once Named the 'Guardian of Small Business.' These Are the Defining Moments of His Legacy
The senator helped shape policies that lowered corporate tax rates, playing a key role in the wider business landscape.
Where does Alec Anderson ultimately play with Bills in 2026?
Is Anderson the starter at left guard, or is he set to reprise his role as Jack-of-All-Trades off the bench?
Lakers have officially signed guard Collin Sexton
Guard Collin Sexton, an instant offense player and high-motor competitor, is now officially a member of the Lakers.
Dolphins' Aaron Brewer Cracks Top 10 on Interior Lineman Ranking
Miami Dolphins center Aaron Brewer has cracked the top ten in the guard and center rankings for the 2026 season.
Hornets GM says LaMelo Ball trade was made with long-term success in mind
Fans have questioned the decision to part with the popular point guard after Charlotte won 44 games and reached the play-in tournament last season.
Spider-like creatures help uncover the surprising origins of fatherhood
Citizen scientists have helped researchers solve a long-standing mystery about how parental care evolved in harvestmen. Using photos and observations from iNaturalist, scientists more than doubled the known cases of egg-guarding behavior and discovered that maternal and paternal care followed different evolutionary paths. The project, completed in just days with help from public data, shows how citizen science is transforming biological research on a global scale.
Nigel Farage is just one strand in the tangle of rightwing politicians and crypto investors
These financiers want to remodel the UK into a form that suits them – one that could threaten to erode the barriers between crime and business, says Guardian columnist John Harris
The vibe shift in American socialism
Today’s DSA candidates don’t resemble the dogmatic old guard.
Heat’s Davion Mitchell is Greece-bound to work out with Giannis: ‘It’s going to be fun’
Heat guard Davion Mitchell isn’t wasting any time.
National Guard shooting suspect in 'dire,' 'self-inflicted' health condition after refusing to eat: filing
Rahmanullah Lakanwal's condition is called "dire" after the D.C. shooting suspect refused food and water, forcing emergency hospitalization.
After 200 Years, Darwin’s Mysterious Jars Reveal a Startling Hidden Truth - Futura-Sciences
Darwin’s Jars: A Sealed Mystery for Centuries For nearly two centuries, jars dating back to Darwin’s time have jealously guarded their secrets. Until recently, unveiling what’s inside came at a major risk: opening them. Now, for the first time, scientists have managed to explore the contents of these precious containers—without...
Missouri governor signs bills creating armed school ‘rangers,’ high school sports appeals board
Missouri schools will be able to hire a new class of armed guards, and high school athletes will get a state-run avenue to appeal some eligibility and competition decisions under two bills signed Thursday by Gov. Mike Kehoe.
Celtics Part Ways with 6-Foot-8 Canadian Point Guard
He never really got his chance to show what he could do in Boston.
Rams’ guard tandem has become one of the NFL’s best
Steve Avila and Kevin Dotson have developed into one of the NFL’s best tandems at guard entering the 2026 season.
The Young Star vs. The Old Guard: What To Know For Spain vs. Belgium
What to know about the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal match between Spain and Belgium.
Dragon Age creator reckons the series is dead following Veilguard flop, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't have another go at it if given the chance
Dragon Age creator David Gaider has said he thinks it's "unlikely" the fantasy RPG has a future under EA.
Cowboys 2026 roster rundown: G Tyler Smith
The Cowboys have one of the best guards in the league
Los Angeles Air Force Base Kicks off Sports Day 2026
On July 1, 2026, Members of Los Angeles Air Force Base came together for the highly anticipated annual sports day. The event brought together Airmen, Guardians, and contractors, drawing them away from their daily operations to unite under a shared goal. This friendly competition not only promoted health and wellness but also fostered camaraderie outside the traditional workplace environment.
Democratic Senate Hopeful Abdul El-Sayed Is Running Against Both Parties
His progressive campaign's strength in Michigan has caught some Democrats off guard
Meta wants its AI glasses to seem less creepy. Its AI strategy says otherwise.
Meta is adding a new safeguard to stop people from secretly recording others with its AI glasses. But the update comes as the company continues to expand how much personal data its AI products collect and use.
Hungary moves to overhaul university models banned from Horizon Europe
Hungary’s new government is aiming to overhaul the governance model of the institutions and universities that lost access to Horizon Europe and Erasmus+ funds “in a short timeframe,” according to Péter Horváth, the new state secretary for science policy and innovation. “As of today, the two non-university foundation-controlled institutions under my remit have been transformed,” he told Science|Business. “We hope the universities will follow and that this will be enough to satisfy the EU’s demands.”Under the previous government, led by Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party, many academic and scientific institutions were restructured and made into special public trust foundations, with members strongly linked to the government given lifelong mandates and significant decision-making powers with little oversight. The European Commission deemed that this undermined academic freedom and transparency in the country, leading to a ban on 34 institutions in 2022, including 21 universities, which saw academics in Hungary lose access to Horizon Europe grants. The new Hungarian government, elected in May and led by Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party, has promised to dismantle this governance model and restore the institutions to EU programmes. As a result, the European Commission has promised to return access to the Erasmus+ education mobility programme, but so far no concrete agreement has been made on the Horizon Europe programme for research and innovation. Hungary has already made legislative changes in June to allow the institutions to be reformed and set a timeline for the implementation.The non-university foundations, which are mainly cultural centres such as the Foundation for Hungarian Culture or the Makovecz Campus Foundation, will all be dissolved by August 31 this year, a date tied to EU-set milestones that Hungary must meet to unlock frozen funds, with control transferred to relevant ministries. Meanwhile, the universities will have until 31 August 2027. For each university foundation, the government will set the dissolution date and the body to take over operations. There is no final decision on a permanent new model for the universities, according to Hungarian MEP Eszter Lakos, who is shadow rapporteur for the Horizon Europe specific programme, a separate piece of legislation detailing implementation rules for the EU’s next research programme, due to start in 2028. “The aim of the transition year is to settle this with [the universities], not to impose a model, and not to put them under state control,” she told Science|Business. “The goal is to give academic independence back to universities.”There are three models that are most likely to be implemented. One would be a return to a traditional, state-run model. Another could be a newer, more self-standing public institution. A third option would be a reformed version of the foundation models that meet EU standards. According to Lakos, the dismantling of the system put in place by the Orbán government is well underway and if all goes according to plan, Hungary could regain access to EU research money by the start of the next academic year in 2027. “I believe that the Hungarian government is doing the necessary changes so the universities could return as beneficiaries to Horizon from the next school year,” she said. In the meantime, “the universities, institutes and cultural assets carry on under proper public stewardship rather than a handful of unaccountable trustees,” said Lakos. The laws passed in June impose new safeguards: board terms are capped at four years and renewable only once, appointments are made through open competitions and sitting politicians cannot join joining these boards.It remains unclear whether a domestic science funding programme set up as a back-up scheme by the former government following the EU funding ban, called HU-rizon, could be continued. “This programme should never have had to have been established in the first place, but it has proven to be quite popular,” he said. “I am considering continuing this programme with a refined focus on helping international collaborations.”Re-organising the research network One of the first priorities for Horváth and his cabinet is to resolve questions over the future of the Hungarian Research Network, Hun-Ren. The network of academic institutes was taken away from the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in 2019 and turned into a quasi-private organisation, with similarities in its governance to the public trust foundations.Horváth and his team have consulted over 5,000 representatives from the network and the conclusion is broad unhappiness with the directors of all the institutes involved. “We have presented the results to the president and the chief executive of the network and this is currently being discussed,” Horváth said. The plan is to re-integrate the network back into the Academy of Sciences but in an improved way, “learning from mistakes of the past,” he added. The government also wants to reintegrate four humanities and social science research centres into the network that the previous government had transferred to Eötvös Loránd University. The transfer brought sharp criticism from the academic community, with a group of Hungarian research heads, including European Research Council grant recipients, sending an open letter to Orbán warning that the transfer would “cause historically significant harm to the entirety of Hungarian scientific life.” The transfer was “one of the biggest shames in Hungarian research in the past 20 years,” Horváth said. “We want to immediately re-integrate them back into the research network and to regain the trust of these institutions, because the way they were treated was really unfair.”Another pressing issue is the Élvonal Excellence Research and Talent Development Foundation, led by Nobel laureate Ferenc Krausz. The foundation signed a financing agreement with the former government earlier this year for a budget of over €730 million over the next five years. The goal is to create a world-class centre to attract top talent from abroad and to develop local researchers. But there was little transparency about this foundation, and news of its huge budget, which is nearly as much as Hungary’s entire research budget, caused a stir in the media following the recent elections. Another issue is that, as with the foundation boards of the institutes banned from Horizon Europe, there was little-to-no oversight of decisions led by Krausz. “It was an excellent idea but an unacceptable execution,” Horváth said of the foundation. “The fact that this is out of the Hungarian funding scheme, mostly concentrating on one person who decides on the budget is unacceptable for us.”The government plans to merge the centre with the National Research, Development and Innovation Office, the country’s R&D funding agency, with a reduced budget. Horváth is hopeful that Krausz will still be involved. The new government’s R&D goalsA phrase that crops up regularly during the discussion with Horváth is “democratic process.” The new state secretary is determined to involve Hungary’s research community in shaping future policies. This marks a departure from the previous government’s approach, and several people in Hungary’s research community have commented on the openness of the new government. In terms of concrete goals, Horváth and his team already have plans. He wants to create a new science fund in Hungary, based on the best practices of other European countries. The fund would not be tied to annual government budgets and would provide long-term, stable financing. “If we were to succeed in creating this fund, then I think it would be one of the biggest achievements for me in this period of government,” Horváth said. On the innovation side, he is looking into how best to bring in the private sector. “We want to make sure that we are working with the private sector to support innovation,” Horváth said. One of his big aims is to introduce entrepreneurship teaching into high schools. Hungary already has a reputable national academy offering research and innovation training in the field of natural sciences, and Horváth wants to expand this to all disciplines and across the whole country. “One of the main ways to elevate our innovative businesses is to teach our children to be innovative,” he said. “This will probably need ten years to pay off, but this is what we should do. Our aim is to make Hungary strong in our region, and this is what is needed.” Related articlesHungary’s Horizon Europe performance in numbersCommission unlocks Erasmus+ cash for Hungary, Horizon could be next‘Academic Huxit.’ Hungarian researchers speak out on impact of EU ban A more difficult task will be funding. The new government is aiming to increase research spending to 2% of the GDP by 2030, and then increase it to 3% in line with EU objectives. Currently, spending sits around 1.3%. But according to Horváth, the current budget, inherited from the previous government, is “heavily in the negative,” so any plans to increase research spending will have to start next year. Achieving 2% by 2030 already needs a big push, almost doubling the research budget. “This is something we’d definitely like to reach, and something I can see us achieving,” he said. “From the 2030s, I’d like to see an innovative generation growing up that can help us reach the 3% target.” Positivity in the new governmentDespite the many challenges facing Horváth and his team, the mood is positive. “It feels a bit like a start-up right now. Everyone is working 24/7, day and night, trying to do as much as they can. There is a lot of energy,” he said. It is a big change for the state secretary who, like many in his cabinet, is coming from a background in research or business, and not in politics. “Six weeks ago, I was sitting with my microscope and my research PhDs, so it’s been a big change for me,” said the computer scientist, who was previously the director of the Institute of Biochemistry at the Hun-Ren Biological Research Centre in Hungary and worked at the Institute for AI for Health at Helmholtz Munich. But he is relishing the task to transform the country’s R&D landscape. “We feel enormous support from the Hungarian people, but also from Europe,” he said. “We’ve received a lot of letters of support from around Europe. There is big trust there, and huge responsibility on our side. We want to get everything back on track, and there’s a lot to do.”
Companies Brace for Fresh Political Uncertainty at U.S. Agencies
A Supreme Court ruling that presidents can fire independent regulators without cause has added volatility for industries that prefer stable enforcement.
Companies Brace for Fresh Political Uncertainty at U.S. Agencies
A Supreme Court ruling that presidents can fire independent regulators without cause has added volatility for industries that prefer stable enforcement.
Guardians News: On to Minnesota
News and Notes for Tuesday, July 7th, 2026
Half of Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas, exclusive poll finds
About 57% of polled Americans also believe economy is worsening in grim portrait of cost of living crisis, according to Harris survey for the Guardian
Northern Trust sells $1.2B guardianship business to Wintrust
The deal boosts Wintrust’s assets under management in its wealth management business by $1.2 billion.
Warriors now know asking price for Bronny James-Lakers trade
The Golden State Warriors should feel confident about their chances of landing a 21-year-old Los Angeles Lakers guard if need be.
Guardians Lose 3-1 To White Sox
This was a pretty underwhelming game from the offense. They faced a good pitcher in Burke, but boy did they make him look great. A solo HR from Hedgey in the 5th is the only thing that kept this one from being a shutout. Hedges is now hitting .281 with a .756 OPS on the […]
Elon Musk posted twice as often on UK race and immigration as about SpaceX in IPO run-up
Guardian analysis of X feed shows how keen world’s richest person was to air his views and ‘interfere’ in British politics
Vanguard Health Care vs. iShares Biotech: How Do These ETFs Stack Up?
Broad healthcare diversification or concentrated biotech growth? Compare cost, risk, and portfolio composition to find your fit.
Bronny James predicted to retire after unexpected LeBron James Lakers decision
The Los Angeles Lakers' 21-year-old guard received a shocking suggestion on Wednesday.
Americans disgusted at Trump earning $1bn from crypto as president: ‘Obviously a grift’
Hundreds of Guardian readers expressed concerns over greed in the White House and a billionaire president unconcerned with high gas and grocery prices
North Carolina lifeguards prepare for holiday surge, with an eye on rip currents
Experts offer safety tips for beachgoers as millions are expected at the North Carolina Coast this weekend.
Anfernee Simons agrees to 2-year deal with Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers agreed to a two-year, $12.3 million contract with guard Anfernee Simons. Simons averaged 14.3 points per game last season.
The Guardian view on xenophobic violence in South Africa: anti-migrant politics can’t fix domestic problems
Editorial: Foreigners are not to blame for unemployment, crime and the state of public services. Leaders should have the courage to say so more clearly
Who was the 49ers’ most underrated free-agent addition?
There are plenty of options, but we’re narrowing it down to the player who should win the left guard spot
They say Andy Burnham is ‘good at politics’ – but the proof will only come in time
The PM-in-waiting brings the promise of likability and a mission voters can believe in. He’ll need all that and more to survive, says Guardian columnist Zoe Williams
Lawyers offer 7 boxes to check before hiring your next regulatory compliance officer
Hospitals are not the only healthcare entities competing over a limited pool of qualified compliance officers. Payers, vendors and others are in the race too. But hospitals and health systems may have the most to lose if they let down their guard on adherence to regulatory rules.
Palantir Just Issued a Warning to Business Leaders About AI: Guard This 1 Thing Like 'Treasure'
Palantir also warned about tokenmaxxing and a sense of 'false progress.'
Cavs sign rookie Meleek Thomas to a four-year deal
The Cleveland Cavaliers have signed Meleek Thomas to a four-year, $9.3 million deal. Thomas was selected 34th overall by the Cavs last week in the 2026 NBA Draft. Thomas played 37 games with Arkansas last year as a freshman. He averaged 15.7 points and 3.8 rebounds as a 6’3” sharpshooting combo-guard. The Cavs are excited […]
Brand New The Blood of Dawnwalker Gameplay Showcases Coen’s Investigation Skills and a Boss Battle Against the Eerie Forgotten Guardian
See Coen's investigation and fighting skills on full display in this quest gameplay from The Blood of Dawnwalker.
Just in: Ex-Science minister Uche Nnaji arrested at Abuja Airport
Former Minister of Science and Technology, Uche Nnaji, was on Wednesday arrested at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, shortly after arriving from Enugu aboard a chartered flight.
Cleveland Guardians’ Rookie Kahlil Watson Flashing Major League Tools
Cleveland Guardians rookie outfielder Kahlil Watson has shown power, speed, a good hit tool, and solid defense after his graduation to the major league club
Guardians rookie Cooper Ingle tosses ball into stands early after losing outs count in loss to Rangers: 'I feel terrible'
New BioShocking attack manipulates AI browser into data theft
A new prompt injection attack dubbed "BioShocking" could trick AI-powered browsers into treating real-world risky actions as part of a fictional scenario, causing them to ignore any safety guardrails.
The Guardians 2026 Trade Deadline Manifesto
Surveying the landscape a month ahead of the deadline
Warriors backup point guard declines 2026-27 player option
De'Anthony Melton has declined his player option for next season after averaging a career high in points last year.
Atlanta Dream Announce Signing of WNBA Champion Guard Jaylyn Sherrod
The Dream used a player development spot to add guard depth.
ESPN Analyst Chiney Ogwumike Defends Alyssa Thomas' Behavior
ESPN WNBA analyst Chiney Ogwumike is coming to the defense of Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas. Thomas was suspended for one game and fined for her hits on Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark last week. Thomas was caught hitting Clark in the groin and the neck, though she wasn't called for a ...
Jalen Brunson receives praise from Knicks fans for offseason work
Jalen Brunson is wasting no time keeping himself in shape this offseason. He led the New York Knicks to the 2026 NBA championship on June 13, and the superstar guard is already working out 16 days later. A video of…
Nine-year NBA veteran indicted on federal sports gambling charges
Veteran NBA shooting guard Malik Beasley has been indicted on federal charges for gambling related to a sports betting scheme, such as point shaving and prop bets, his attorney Steve Haney told ESPN. on June 29. According to Shams Charania,…
Ahead of the MLB trade deadline, here’s where the Guardians stand
The Guardians are among the best teams in a weak American League. This is the time for them to capitalize on their situation.
What was it like to guard Shaq in college? ‘Glad I got him as a freshman’
Southern Miss forward Clarence Weatherspoon, who went on to play in the NBA, was the first college player to guard Shaq in a game.
Benchmark Scores Don’t Break. Clinical Reality Does. The Health AI Readiness Illusion.
Nature Medicine's frontier AI evaluation exposes a dangerous gap: models acing medical benchmarks collapse under adversarial pressure, and the FDA has no…
'Nobody likes you': Argument between former teammates Josh Naylor and Austin Hedges gets personal in Mariners-Guardians
Evans Has Reportedly Been 'Unguardable' at 49ers Practice
The future Hall of Famer is stunning teammates in San Francisco, dominating red zone drills and exceeding high expectations as he anchors a loaded arsenal for Brock Purdy.
Lagos school emerges winner of 10th Edition of Tolaram Science Challenge
By Efe Onodjae Iwerekun Community Senior High School, Ibeju-Lekki, has emerged the winner of the 10th edition of Tolaram Science Challenge (TSC), marking their third consecutive win. The school triumphed over Magbon-Alade Senior Grammar School in a keenly contested grand finale of the competition. The Tolaram Science Challenge, sponsored by Lagos Free Zone, is an annual […]
Cleveland Takes Series from Seattle in Sunday Victory
Seattle Mariners 5 - Cleveland Guardians 6
Arkansas Department of Health urges caution during extreme heat
Now that it is officially summer, state health officials want to make sure you're on guard against the extreme heat.
Hornets send Miles Bridges to Phoenix Suns, AP source says
Guard Grayson Allen and forward Royce O’Neale would be coming to Charlotte, according to a person familiar with the deal.
Letters to Sports: Is Austin Reaves worth the $185-million deal?
L.A. Times readers weigh in on the re-signing of Lakers guard Austin Reaves, as well as the Dodgers' hits and misses.
Guardians score, lineups vs Seattle Mariners at Progressive FIeld
The short-handed Guardians look to find some offense against the Mariners at Progressive Field. Follow along here for live updates.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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