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Man Finds $1 Million Worth of Yu-Gi-Oh Cards in a Dumpster
It was already a sordid tale of online drama, blurry photographs, and erratic TikToks. Then his mom started posting.
Napheesa Collier says her critique of the WNBA was 'a little dramatic,' but it worked
NPR's Steve Inskeep asks WNBA star Napheesa Collier about the league's new contract with the players and the state of women's sports.
2026 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 35
The Cubs win their sixth straight with a dramatic ninth inning comeback.
Stanford’s new chip boosts light 100x with surprisingly low energy
Researchers at Stanford have developed a compact optical amplifier that dramatically boosts light signals using very little power. By recycling energy inside a looping resonator, the device achieves strong amplification with minimal noise and wide bandwidth. Its efficiency and small size mean it could run on batteries and be integrated into consumer electronics. This breakthrough could enable faster communications and more powerful optical technologies.
Scientists boost strawberry flavor and nutrition without changing growth
A surprising genetic twist shows that boosting a seemingly ordinary “housekeeping” gene can dramatically improve fruit quality without any trade-offs. By increasing the activity of a tRNA-related gene in strawberries, researchers unlocked richer color, stronger aroma, and higher levels of health-boosting compounds like anthocyanins and terpenoids. Even more striking, these enhancements came with zero impact on plant growth, fruit size, or sweetness—avoiding the usual downsides of metabolic tinkering.
Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde on Golden Tempo’s ‘pretty dramatic’ win at the Kentucky Derby
Pat Forde has covered 39 Kentucky Derbys. He has never seen one like last weekend’s. Nobody has. The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby will go down as one of the most memorable. Golden Tempo’s last-to-first victory captivated America and made Cherie DeVaux a star as she became the first female trainer to win the…
Met Gala guests arrive on carpet in dramatic works of art
On display this Spring, the “Costume Art” exhibit will “examine the centrality of the dressed body.”
Blake Lively, Justin Baldoni settle lawsuit, avoid trial
The blockbuster lawsuit between "It Ends With Us" stars Justin Baldoni and Blake Lively over behind-the-scenes drama was settled ahead of trial.
Kings Dominion unveils dramatically expanded and reimagined summer entertainment program
DOSWELL, Va. — Kings Dominion is redefining summer fun with a dramatically expanded and reimagined entertainment lineup for Summer 2026, turning live entertainment into a true centerpiece of the gu…
Norwich owner delighted by 'special' Clement
Norwich City owner Mark Attanasio hails Philippe Clement as a "special manager" following the team's dramatic improvement under the Belgian.
Labour MPs say ‘endless drama’ of leadership speculation must stop
Downing Street begins fightback against predictions of imminent challenge to Keir Starmer
NBA Playoffs Deliver Early With Game 7 Drama, Strong Ratings
It’s unclear whether Luka Dončić will return in the second round.
How Perimenopause Became America's New Health Scare
If you’re a woman who speaks English, it sometimes feels like you can’t spend time on the internet without being bombarded with all the ways in which your body or your mind could be just a little broken. A few years ago, Instagram was full of women talking about attention deficit disorder, and lo and behold: From 2020 to 2022, the percentage of women (between the ages of 23 and 49) newly diagnosed with it nearly doubled. Not long ago, premenstrual syndrome was all the rage, with the algorithm pushing videos that explained why it’s okay to fly off the handle once a month. These days, the word perimenopause is everywhere. Perhaps you’ve seen the headlines. “Perimenopause is having a millennial moment. Here are 7 ways to cope,” says The Washington Post. Or perhaps you’ve seen Apple TV’s glossy drama Your Friends & Neighbors, which is back for its second season; the female protagonist Mel is explicitly perimenopausal, and in the first season, she keyed a car for no apparent reason. She’s played by Amanda Peet, who talks about being perimenopausal in real life (“God knows I’ve wanted to key a lot of cars in the last three years,” she’s said.) In fact, it sometimes feels like every celebrity interview with a forty- or fiftysomething woman requires her to open up about what’s going on with her hormones. Drew Barrymore joked on CBS Mornings that when she found out how long perimenopause can last, she thought she’d “never make it 10 years like this.” Katherine Heigl told Business Insider that “whoever designed it so that women would be going through perimenopause while raising teenagers should be sent a strongly worded letter.” At the same time, influencers who talk about perimenopause seem to have cropped up out of nowhere with something to sell you, causing people online to wonder where this all came from. It’s trickled down from Instagram to tchotchke shops, which sell fridge magnets that say “Perimenopause Is Hot.” You can buy a T-shirt that proclaims “Perimenopause Made Me Do It!” My mom, who is 48, started uncontrollably shaking her leg at night a few years ago. “It’s perimenopause,” she told me when I complained about how annoying it was. But what exactly is perimenopause—and why are we all talking about it all of a sudden?
Mars will tear its own moon apart. Now scientists think it could be sooner – and more destructive – than expected | BBC Sky at Night Magazine
New modelling suggests the Martian moon Phobos’s demise could be earlier – and much more dramatic – than we expected
‘Gilmore Girls’ Star Scott Patterson Makes Blunt Confession About Rory’s Boyfriends
The actor who played Luke in the beloved comedy-drama series got real about Dean, Jess, and Logan.
‘Gilmore Girls’ Star Scott Patterson Makes Blunt Confession About Rory’s Boyfriends
The actor who played Luke in the beloved comedy-drama series got real about Dean, Jess, and Logan.
‘Mabel’: Modest but endearing family story
Gentle drama reminds us that we’re all misfits
How A.I. Is Transforming China’s Entertainment Industry
A.I.-generated microdramas have taken off. Celebrities have threatened legal action against the use of their likeness, while actors say jobs have dried up.
Video: A.I. Shakes Up China’s Entertainment Landscape
New A.I. tools are changing China’s entertainment industry and transforming one of its most popular genres: the microdrama.
Inside Democratic Fundraiser ActBlue’s Big Spending and Internal Drama
The group faces investigations from the Justice Department and congressional Republicans six months before the 2026 midterms.
Sports Illustrated Revel at the Races party draws athletes, influencers
NFL athletes, dramatic actresses and rising influencers all showed up to the black carpet May 1 at Sports Illustrated's Revel at the Races party.
Crues retain Premiership status with shootout win over Annagh
Crusaders secured their Irish Premiership status for next season after a dramatic penalty shootout victory which sealed the play-off victory over Annagh United.
Kevin Bacon is back in Atlanta to film pilot for Hulu’s ‘Southern Bastards’
Kevin Bacon is filming a pilot for a Hulu drama in Atlanta, marking his return to Georgia as the region’s film industry navigates a slower period.
The Devil Wears Prada 2? Goundbreaking. What The Sequel Got Right
Twenty years after the original, The Devil Wears Prada 2 delivers on all the nostalgia, fashion moments, iconic lines, and media drama we wanted.
Don’t toss cannabis leaves: Scientists found rare compounds with medical potential
Scientists have uncovered a surprising new layer of complexity in Cannabis, identifying dozens of previously unknown compounds—including the first-ever evidence of rare molecules called flavoalkaloids in its leaves. These compounds, prized for their potential health benefits, were hidden among a rich mix of plant chemicals that vary dramatically even between just a few strains.
New treatment cuts bad cholesterol by nearly 50% without statins
A new breakthrough could change how high cholesterol is treated, offering a powerful alternative to traditional drugs. Researchers have developed tiny DNA-based molecules that shut down PCSK9—a key protein that keeps “bad” LDL cholesterol circulating in the blood. By blocking this protein, cells can absorb more cholesterol instead of letting it build up in arteries, dramatically lowering levels linked to heart disease.
These are the movies you’ll be able to catch at this year’s Film on the Rocks
Whether you’re into horror, dramas, comedies or action, Film on the Rocks will certainly deliver with its lineup for the 2026 season.
Orioles could explore 'dramatic pivot' with Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman
Baltimore needs brighter days ahead to avoid this scenario.
John Roberts’ legacy of removing race protections sees defining moment
The Supreme Court’s decision Wednesday rolling back protections for Black and Latino voters marks another dramatic turn in the long-fought effort by conservative justices to reverse measures vital to overcoming America’s legacy of race discrimination.
Scientists Reveal Why Breast Cancer Risk Rises With Age
"With the most dramatic changes occurring at menopause."
'Rose' and the piece of fabric that embodies gender politics
As the film starring Sandra Hüller is released in Germany, DW talked to director Markus Schleinzer about why women passing as men inspired his historical drama, and why it's a current topic.
Don’t upend Colorado’s ‘healthy balance’ on stream access
By Ashley House “The horizon is a perfect line between sky and water.” I heard this line of dialogue waft through my parents’ living room recently as they tuned into one of the newest Taylor Sheridan TV dramas, “The Madison.” As I lingered to admire the cinematographic qualities of the show (shot within the Madison River […]
MIT scientists turn chaotic laser light into powerful brain imaging tool
Scientists at MIT discovered that chaotic laser light can spontaneously form a highly focused beam instead of scattering—if the conditions are just right. This “pencil beam” enabled them to image the blood-brain barrier in 3D at speeds 25 times faster than existing techniques. The method also lets researchers watch how drugs move into brain cells in real time. It could dramatically accelerate the development of treatments for neurological diseases.
The universe may end trillions of years sooner than we thought
Recent surveys hint that the rate of cosmic expansion changes dramatically over time; if that's true, then the universe could end much sooner than we thought, new research suggests.
How a 2019 media blitz 'dramatically' shaped teen vaping habits
If it seems like fewer teens are vaping, new data backs that up and researchers say 2019 marked a turning point.
‘Star City’: The New ‘For All Mankind’ Spinoff, Explained
The new series will offer a different vision of the same timeline as the hit Apple TV+ drama.
King Charles steps into political storm during high-stakes US trip
Royal broadcaster Neil Sean joins ‘Varney & Co.’ to break down King Charles’ Washington visit, efforts to repair U.S.-U.K. ties, and the latest royal drama involving Prince Harry and Meghan Markle.
Media And Entertainment CEO Pay Surged 117% In 2025, Report Finds
Across the S&P 500, CEO pay packages for 2025 rose nearly 11% over 2024 levels – and media and entertainment led all sectors with a dramatic 117% surge.
High school sports weekend top performers delivered dramatic finishes
School vacation week is over, and these 10 high school athletes were right back to work over the weekend. See who made the cut from April 24-26.
US Regional and Mid-Sized Banks Are Dramatically Reinventing Their Business Models
Regional and mid-sized banks have traditionally held stable positions within the US banking sector. But fluctuating interest rates, shifting depositor preferences, stringent regulatory requirements and technological advancements are driving many institutions to undertake significant transformations to maintain their competitive positions.
How to live stream Lakers vs Rockets: NBA Playoffs, TV channel
The Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets meet Sunday for Game 4 of their first-round playoff series, with the Lakers holding a commanding 3–0 lead after a dramatic overtime comeback in Game 3. MORE: Ranking the current NBA playoff duos…
Antarctica's sea ice suddenly started shrinking a decade ago — and deep-diving robots are revealing why
A decade ago, southern sea ice suddenly and dramatically declined. Scientists say the culprit was a "very violent release" of deep, pent-up heat.
‘Below Deck’ Transport Boat Goes Up in Flames in Dramatic Video
More unintended drama has hit the set of ‘Below Deck,’ and this time, it’s an inferno at sea.
Aggressive “hulk” lizards are wiping out millions of years of evolution
For ages, wall lizards coexisted in three distinct color types, each with its own strategy for survival. Now, a powerful green variant is taking over. These dominant “Hulk” lizards are outcompeting the others, causing yellow and orange morphs to vanish. It’s a dramatic reminder that evolution can flip the script much faster than expected.
Colorado lawmakers propose sweeping security overhaul after rise in political attacks nationwide
Colorado legislators unveiled a 60‑page bill that would dramatically expand protections for elected officials, staff, and judicial employees, responding to a string of high‑profile attacks nationwide and growing safety concerns inside the state’s courthouses and Capitol. Introduced earlier this week, House Bill 1422 contains nearly 30 sections. Among those provisions is the establishment of an […]
Scientists just found where airborne microplastics really come from
Microplastics are floating through the atmosphere and spreading across the globe, but their true origins have been misunderstood. New research shows land sources emit over 20 times more microplastic particles into the air than the ocean, challenging earlier beliefs. Scientists also discovered that previous models dramatically overestimated how much plastic is in the atmosphere.
Trump endorsement just part of the political drama in this Indiana Senate primary
Drama surrounds the May 5 Republican primary where Sen. Greg Goode of Terre Haute is trying to prevail despite defying Trump last year
Marc Jacobs' Rachel Sennott Collab Kicks Off Pivot to Social Entertainment
Marc Jacobs teamed up with Rachel Sennott on a new microdrama as it shifts toward social-first entertainment.
New issue: Mirrorlife | BBC Science Focus Magazine
Mirror life could end all life on Earth. That sounds dramatic, but senior biologists have raised the alarm about experiments happening all around the world. It sounds like something in a Doctor Who plot, but no – mirror life is a real possibility. So why do scientists want to create something that’s potentially apocalyptic? Well, it could also have huge benefits (think back to splitting the atom). The first thing to say, however, is that mirror organisms are still a little way away yet – but only decades, not centuries. So far, scientists have only made mirror molecules, one of life’s building blocks. What for? Life works because its building blocks fit together. Imagine drilling a screw into a piece of wood. The screw cuts a hole with a thread that snugly matches its own. If, for some reason, the Doctor showed up and handed you a mirror version of the screw, its thread would be in reverse. It wouldn’t twist into the hole you’d just made as the threads wouldn’t match. That said, the mirror screw would still work; you’d just have to create a mirror hole for it. Mirror molecules, including DNA, work a bit like that. They follow the same principles as the biology around us, but they’re entirely incompatible with traditional biological functions. In medical terms, this means they’re effectively invisible to your body’s systems. Our biology doesn’t have the tools to recognise these molecules and break them apart. And if someone took these mirror molecules and put them together to make a cell and then an organism… you’d have mirror life. But we don't have any way of breaking it down. If it escaped the lab, we’d just have to hope it didn’t have an appetite.
From The Sports Desk: Drama at the draft
Where is the second-best quarterback in the draft slated to go?
2026 NFL Draft: Five win-win trades that could actually happen in the first round
There's plenty of potential for drama Thursday night
America 250: How preventive care became a cornerstone of American health
Awareness of the importance of preventive care has grown dramatically in the United States, reshaping the nation’s understanding of health.
Virginia voters back redistricting amendment after months of legal and political battles
Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade congressional redistricting, a move expected to dramatically reshape the state’s political map and potentially shift its congressional delegation from a closely divided 6-5 split to a heavily Democratic-leaning 10-1 advantage.
🚨 Line-ups ready: Mallorca and Valencia open the matchday
RCD Mallorca and Valencia CF kick off LaLiga Matchday 33 this Tuesday in a dramatic clash in the battle for survival. Separated by just one point, 14th and 15th in the table face off in one of the fir...
Virginia voters to decide on new House map with major midterm implications
Virginia is the latest front in an unprecedented coast-to-coast redistricting war, with voters on Tuesday set to determine whether to accept or reject a Democratic plan to dramatically redraw the state’s congressional maps and help shape the midterm elections.
Drama between software engineer and Google heats up
Computer programmer and ex-Googler Steve Yegge said he had heard AI use within the the company varies widely, sparking a firestorm of public pushback.
Drama between software engineer and Google heats up
Computer programmer and ex-Googler Steve Yegge said he had heard AI use within the the company varies widely, sparking a firestorm of public pushback.
Zombie Magic, old LeBron, Wemby’s debut & more thoughts on every NBA Playoff series + Warriors drama & LaMelo’s future with Jason Timpf, Kelly Iko & Noa Dalzell
Pinwheels and the ‘lobster district’: How Virginia Democrats drew up a US House map to all but lock out Republicans
Virginia Democrats hope the new congressional map they’re asking voters to approve Tuesday will flip four Republican House districts, delivering 10 of 11 seats in a state Vice President Kamala Harris won with just 52% of the vote in 2024. To do it, they want to dramatically rework entire sections of the state, slicing up deep blue districts in the Washington, DC, suburbs and around Richmond, and creating a new district running along the Blue Ridge Mountains that connects liberal cities. That’s required something called the “lobster district,” stretching from northern Virginia into two “pincers” grabbing up rural territory.
Official race results: NASCAR Cup 2026 Kansas spring race
Reddick is a winner again, besting Larson and Briscoe in a dramatic overtime finish
Haaland ends PL goal drought at the perfect time 🤖
Sunday's title contest between Manchester City and Arsenal has delivered the drama as expected. And we also have Erling Haaland scoring, as expected! The Norwegian snapped his Premier League goal drou...
Cardi B says near-canceled Atlanta show is her ‘last time’ at State Farm Arena
The rapper threatened not to perform and took jabs at Atlanta Police during the final night of her "Little Miss Drama Tour."
China’s DRAM Suppliers Come To The Rescue As They Ramp Up LPDDR4 Production Shortly After Samsung Abandons Customers
Samsung exclusively moving to LPDDR5 production has given Chinese DRAM makers to pursue LPDDR4 manufacturer to cater to abandoned customers
Trump Signs Order To Accelerate Legal Access To Psychedelics For Patients With Mental Health Conditions
President Donald Trump has signed an executive order aimed at expanding and expediting research on the potential therapeutic benefits of psychedelics, a move aimed at making substances such as psilocybin, ibogaine, LSD and MDMA more readily available to patients in clinical settings. The move will “dramatically accelerate access to new medical research and treatments based […]
Chico releases new ordered post-patch tier list for Street Fighter 6
Alex and the mid-season balance patch for Street Fighter 6 were released not too long ago. Though every character received adjustments, the meta hasn't seen that much of a dramatic shift thus far.Regardless, Chico was recently inspired to ...
A big midterms year in Arizona kicks off with the state's largest county embroiled in election drama
Much of the political spotlight this election year in Arizona has been focused on the office that runs elections in Maricopa County, the state’s largest | WWJ Newsradio 950
A big midterms year in Arizona kicks off with the state's largest county embroiled in election drama
Much of the political spotlight this election year in Arizona has been focused on the office that runs elections in Maricopa County, the state’s largest | KNSS Radio
'We just can’t go back': How one mom dramatically cut her family’s technology use
NEW YORK (CNN) — Ever wonder why your kid goes ballistic when you try to take their screen away? It’s mostly not their fault. That outsize reaction occurs because devices are designed to make us all desire them so badly that we don’t log off, writes Dr. Michaeleen Doucleff in her new book, “Dopamine Kids: […]
'"Master Harold" … and the Boys' review: An exquisite Fugard revival
"'Master Harold' … and the Boys," Athol Fugard's classic drama set in apartheid South Africa, opens at the Geffen Playhouse in a production starring John Kani, a Tony-winning interpreter of Fugard's work.
HHS Wants to Be Done With Drama, for Now
As Trump nominates a new, uncontroversial CDC director, a more restrained version of RFK Jr. is appearing.
'Laramie Project' and 'Shrek the Musical' come to St. Tammany stages this week
Explore a broad spectrum of shows from fact-based dramas to fantasy musicals in St. Tammany theaters this weekend.
Scientists remove “zombie” cells and reverse liver damage in mice
A rogue set of “zombie” immune cells may be driving aging and fatty liver disease by flooding tissues with inflammation. Researchers found these cells accumulate with age and high cholesterol—and can make up most of the liver’s immune cells in older mice. When scientists removed them, liver damage was dramatically reversed, even without diet changes.
Star of Japanese hit series 'The Solitary Gourmet' hopes to share its joy of eating
Japanese TV drama “The Solitary Gourmet” quietly started in a late-night slot 14 years ago featuring a suit-clad, middle-aged man’s joy of solitary dining at a local eatery after work | KMBZ
TSMC Will Force Smartphone Makers To Make Chipset Downgrades This Year, With DRAM Shortage Also Contributing To This Burden
Even though 2nm chipset launches are expected in Q4 2026, one tipster claims that TSMC will be partly responsible for smartphone companies making downgrades
LIV Golf to shut down? Saudi Arabia financiers may pull support, leaving PGA Tour rival at crossroads
Four years after its dramatic launch, LIV Golf may be going out with a whimper
Exclusive: OpenAI lobbies for expanded AI role in life sciences
Progress in life sciences has slowed dramatically — even as the toughest diseases remain unsolved.
What Happens in California Governor’s Race After Eric Swalwell Stepped Down?
For Democrats, the drama is reverberating well beyond the state.
CU Boulder lab researching science of avalanches
Colorado has seen how deadly avalanches can be. Vriend has been studying avalanches for more than a decade. While we often see the dramatic images of avalanches, not much is known about what really ...
Blackmagic Design announces Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G
Blackmagic Design today announced Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G, a new model in the URSA Cine family with 100G Ethernet for high-frame-rate SMPTE-2110 live production output up to 440 fps. Building on the digital film features of the URSA Cine 12K LF, including the large format RGBW 36x24mm sensor, the new model adds dramatically faster … Continued
When Does ‘The Madison’ Season 2 Premiere?
All the latest updates on the Taylor Sheridan drama.
Trump, Iran Tensions, Birthright Citizenship Fight, and Texas Senate Drama
Co-hosts Brandon Rottinghaus and Jeronimo Cortina delve into the latest news in politics
Sports Daily: Rory goes back-to-back; Royals offensive struggles continue
We recap a dramatic Master’s Tournament in which Rory McIlroy won his second straight green jacket.
Hashing It Out: Does ‘The Drama’ shoot itself in the foot?
The Panther staff debates the new Zendaya and Robert Pattinson hit, which drew controversial reactions from audiences.
‘The Pitt’ Guest Star Shawn Hatosy Could Make Emmy History
Hatosy won Emmy gold for his performance in the medical drama last year, and this year, he could pull off a never-before-seen feat.
The Latest: Final round of the 90th Masters has arrived
The final round of the 90th Masters has arrived, and it’s a tight race for the green jacket. Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young enter the round tied atop the leaderboard, and six others are within four shots after a dramatic Saturday. Sam Burns is one shot off the lead, Shane Lowry is two, and two-time Masters winner Scottie Scheffler lurks four shots back.
Ira Winderman: Wins up, seed similar, season sideways for Heat
MIAMI — A better record. A similar play-in seed. But at least less drama, so there’s that. A year ago, when assessing a 37-45 season that delivered the Heat to the No. 10 and final play-in seed, the thought was of a net gain in escaping a half season of Jimmy Butler drama. Now, when assessing a record assured of finishing on the plus side of .500, the question is if the gain is tangible, ...
Does the moon look the same from everywhere on Earth?
The moon's orientation changes quite dramatically across time and between places, largely due to differences in perspective.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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