SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " Down " 12,210 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Chelsea 0-3 Man City: What Rosenior said
If you go down against teams as good as this, what you have to do for the next five minutes is to stay in the game. It ended up being a really, really difficult second half." On building resilience in the team: "I am accountable.
Fallout from Eric Swalwell scandal grows as lawmakers eye House expulsion votes
The political crisis surrounding Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is rapidly escalating into a broader bipartisan showdown that could reshape the makeup of the House.
Times Opinion: Let’s expel toxic right-wing politics from the Hamilton County Board of Education
Within national politics, we are living in a world dominated by a toxic political environment. While that is severely toned down at the local level, it does seep through into one realm: our schools.
Dons boss Robinson will not relax until safety is secured
Stephen Robinson does not want Aberdeen to relax during their two-week break after they recorded a much-needed 2-0 win over Hibernian to boost their William Hill Premiership survival hopes. Kevin Nisbet netted from the penalty spot after Grant Hanley was sent off for hauling down Toyosi Olusanya and the Scotland striker added a second with 15 minutes to go to end a nine-match winless league run. The Dons are five points above Kilmarnock, who sit in the relegation play-off spot with five games to play, and the two teams clash at Pittodrie in the next round of Premiership fixtures which does not take place until April 25.
NH's Business: NH labor force participation
Fred Kocher sits down with Jessica Williams with the NH Fiscal Policy Institute to talk about data from the 2025 labor force participation in New Hampshire.
The War With Iran Offered a Snapshot of Trump World. It’s Not a Pretty Picture.
In a roundtable discussion, POLITICO reporters detail how the war in Iran pulled back the curtain on the Trump administration.
A slowdown in federal science grants has Vermont researchers worried
Though leaders at the National Institutes of Health say they intend to allocate all the federally assigned dollars, changes in how they do so is disrupting the research of early career scientists.
Alums bring entrepreneurial spirit to downtown businesses
Two graduates of ETSU's College of Business and Technology share what it's like to be an entrepreneur in Johnson City.
Fan World of Warcraft servers face shut down as Blizzard wins Turtle WoW case
Activision Blizzard has won its court case against Turtle WoW, delivering a Cease and Desist order to the World of Warcraft server network.
After being an iPhone user for 13 years, here's why I'm finally switching to Android for good
After 13 years with an iPhone, I finally made the switch to Android — and it all came down to one simple feature.
Christmas Vacation and Congress: 'We're all in misery' amid the ongoing DHS shutdown
Fox News' Chad Pergram discusses Congress' prolonged DHS shutdown and the risky tactics associated with it as political divisions threaten deeper government funding crises.
SDFC's winless run extended, downed 2-1 by Minnesota United
San Diego FC’s winless streak continues to grow, falling in back-to-back matches after a 2-1 Saturday night loss to Minnesota United FC at Snapdragon Stadium.
Let’s all go to the science fair
“While participation was down this year, I believe the changes in the judging and awards element allowed us to focus on the most important things which were the students and their projects,” said Sara Milner, pre-K through fifth grade curriculum supervisor for Duxbury Public Schools. “We wanted the event to be about showcasing the students’
Food hall vendors outline plans for downtown Santa Fe venture
The new Santa Fe food hall at 150 Washington Ave. will feature 17 vendors — 11 eateries and six beverage enterprises.
Where will diners park at downtown food hall?
Developer Jim Long of Heritage Real Estate Co. says there should be plenty of parking options, with nearby garages and metered parking.
Bay Area fans celebrate Artemis II splashdown with a roar at Chabot Space Center in Oakland
When the astronauts of the Artemis II splashed down off the coast of San Diego on Friday, cheers were heard around the country -- even in Oakland. Hundreds came out to the Chabot Space and Science Center in the Oakland Hills to celebrate the historical event.
Get on ‘board’ with Aspen’s charcuterie board business
Borde + Kurv offers handmade boards, along with baskets, spanning everything from brunch to charcuterie to dessert — with thoughtfully sourced and mostly local produce evoking European flavor and tradition.
Assessing Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Valuation After A Steep Year To Date Share Price Slide
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) has been drawing attention after a steep share price slide in the past 3 months, with the stock down about 53% year to date at a recent price of US$102.38. See our latest analysis for Flutter Entertainment. The recent 90 day share price return of 52.45% and 1 year total shareholder return of 55.83% both sit sharply in negative territory, suggesting momentum has been fading rather than building despite earlier gains in recent years. If this kind of reset has...
Nearly 100 Colorado businesses have left or scaled back operations since 2019, report finds
A new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation suggests the state’s weakening competitiveness is driving businesses out of state. Companies are blaming factors like increasing regulations and cost of living for why they’re choosing to...
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
China's K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of one of the group's biggest fan bases comes as no surprise. In fact, just the opposite would have…
Defiant Swalwell still sees a path to victory in governor's race
So far, Swalwell is casting the allegations against him as a political conspiracy to take down the frontrunner for the governor’s office.
Cowboys draft rumor shot down by star defender’s 30 visit
How would you feel about Jermod McCoy?
Maui Health announces CEO transition as Fulton announces departure to be closer to family
Maui Health announced today that chief executive officer Lynn Fulton will step down effective May 3, 2026, to return to central Illinois to be closer to her family. A leadership transition plan will be shared in the coming days.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
2026's dark horse GOTY contender just hit 1.0 and you can’t miss it
The visually dazzling Sol Cesto breaks a dungeon crawler down to its essence
Orange County restaurants shut down by health inspectors (April 2-9)
There were 12 restaurants and food establishments ordered closed by Orange County inspectors from April 2 to April 9.
Jay Collins raises nearly $1.75 million in first quarter as active candidate, with big Ron DeSantis donor giving more than half
The Green Beret may not be getting enough green to be viable down the stretch.
I shut down my successful brick-and-mortar business to reinvent myself
I spent two decades as a solopreneur building my photography studio. In my 50s, I wanted to try something new. I'm now reinventing myself in midlife.
Science news this week: Artemis II splashes down, the world's fattest parrot bounces back, and the Shroud of Turin is contaminated
April 11, 2026: Our weekly roundup of the latest science in the news, as well as a few fascinating articles to keep you entertained over the weekend.
This dreadful run that's weighing Mbappé down 🥶
The black cat?This Friday evening, Real Madrid were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Girona on matchday 31 of La Liga.If Barcelona win this Saturday, the Catalans would move nine points clear of Madrid a...
Updated Dolphins 30 visits – The Splash Zone 4/11/26
Welcome to the Splash Zone, the quickest way to get your day started off right. We bring you a rundown of Miami Dolphins news from the last 24 hours.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
Artemis II returns: Oakland science center celebrates end of historic moon mission
THE CHABOT SPACE AND SCIENCE CENTER in Oakland hosted an event on Friday to celebrate the Artemis II mission ahead of the touchdown of the project’s
Splashdown party at Chabot Space and Science Center
The Chabot Space and Science Center in Oakland hosted some of the brains behind the Artemis II operation from Nasa for a community-wide watch party of Orion's splashdown.
Political analysts break down Trump's visit to Charlottesville
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (CBS19 NEWS) — President Donald Trump made a brief and tightly controlled visit to Charlottesville on Friday, attending a private fundraiser at Trump Winery as he works to
Science lovers celebrate Artemis II splashdown at Oakland watch party
Report: Dianna Russini "will not be reporting" during internal investigation
The New York Times has reversed course regarding NFL insider Dianna Russini.
Bath stage late rally to beat Northampton in classic
Bath come from 21 points down to beat Prem leaders Northampton 43-41 and reach the semi-finals of the Champions Cup in an incredible clash at the Rec.
Chiefs defensive end Charles Omenihu blasts Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson comes under fire from Chiefs defensive end.
How will NASA get the Artemis II crew safely back on Earth? Here's the science behind splashdown
While splashdown can be harrowing – the spacecraft will hurdle through the atmosphere faster than the speed of sound and reach temperatures in the thousands of degrees – NASA has been doing it for decades.
Health‑coverage decisions in retirement can shape when and how federal retirees tap their money
You've got to be careful about the tax planning and also what you might expect in the future down the road," said Tammy Flanagan.
Homeland Security Workers Get Paid, but the Next Check Is Uncertain
The lack of clarity has frustrated employees as Congress battles over how to fund the department.
Politics Friday: High tensions at the Capitol as lawmakers tick down the to-do list
State lawmakers are back from a short break. Friday at noon, a conversation with two lawmakers about the remainder of the session, where it stands and what can get done.
There are 'reasons to be confident' about faulty Artemis II heat shield ahead of 25,000 mph reentry, space expert Ed Macauley says
NASA's Artemis II heat shield is about to face its ultimate test as the Orion crew prepares for reentry. Physics and data science lecturer Ed Macaulay tells Live Science reasons to be confident ahead of today's historic splashdown.
Injecting humour into science is risky
Letters: Roger Downie notes that jokes can be lost in translation, while Tim Jones remembers a feeble attempt at humour, and Denis McCullough recalls a few physics gags
Penner Sports Group becomes largest minority owner of MLB's Colorado Rockies
Broncos owners Carrie Walton Penner and Greg Penner are expanding their footprint in Denver sports.
Vatican meeting at Pentagon was ‘unusual,’ a church official says
U.S. and Vatican officials have sought to downplay accounts of a strained relationship, but there have been tensions between the Trump administration and the Catholic Church.
Morning Download: UNLV projects a nearly $11 million NIL/revenue sharing budget
On weekday mornings, Nevada Sports Net will recap three big headlines of the day in its Morning Download. Read below for today's topics.
Amazon Luna goes all in on Stadia Pro-like subscription, removing everything else
Effective today, Amazon Luna is shutting down basically everything that’s not a single Stadia Pro-like subscription. Amazon Luna started off...
Breaking Down Barriers
Through the student-led Colby Community Health Program, students and shelter guests exchange health tips, snacks, and life lessons.
NASA took this camera gear to space aboard Artemis 2, and you can own it, too!
Artemis 2 is the first crewed lunar mission in over 50 years, but the cameras onboard are surprisingly down-to-earth. Here's how to get your hands on the gear that has brought us so many stunning shots of space.
ASU Health HQ breaks ground
Work is officially underway on the planned ASU Health headquarters building in downtown Phoenix.
King County’s mental health expansion 'moving way too slowly,' Zahilay says
We sat down with King County Executive Girmay Zahilay to discuss his vision for mental health and substance use care amid shaky federal and state funding.
CPUID site hijacked to serve malware instead of HWMonitor downloads
: Six-hour breach turned trusted links into a coin toss between legit tools and credential stealers
From Koch to Adams, history shows rocky starts are common for NYC mayors
Past mayors dealt with budget crises or economic downturns early on.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Series Preview
The Yankees head down to the Trop for a clash with the Rays.
Whole Hog Politics: Vance’s Hungarian gambit
[Watch Whole Hog Politics live: Join us today at 9 a.m. EDT at TheHill.com as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon break down this week’s political news and answer questions from a live online audi…
Artemis II splashdown LIVE: Hours to go before fiery finale of historic moon mission
Friday, April 10, 2026: The latest updates on the Artemis II mission as the crew prepare for a perilous reentry to Earth following a 10-day journey around the moon.
Q4 Rundown: Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) Vs Other Consumer Discretionary
Quarterly earnings results are a good time to check in on a company’s progress, especially compared to its peers in the same sector. Today we are looking at Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) and the best and worst performers in the consumer discretionary - casino operator industry.
"This is not a game that is about to face some sort of imminent shutdown" - Marathon reportedly had a budget of $200m, and while player numbers are dipping, team morale remains good
Marathon reportedly had a development of over at least $200m, and likely over $250m.
New business center aims to spark growth in Wagoner after decades without new development
A new business center in downtown Wagoner is bringing fresh momentum to a community that has not seen new commercial construction in more than two decades.
Stefano Gabbana has stepped down as Dolce & Gabbana chairman but will keep a creative role
Stefano Gabbana has stepped down as chairman of the fashion house that he co-founded with Domenico Dolce | KYW Newsradio
Stefano Gabbana has stepped down as Dolce & Gabbana chairman but will keep a creative role
Stefano Gabbana has stepped down as chairman of the fashion house that he co-founded with Domenico Dolce | Talk 1370
Stefano Gabbana has stepped down as Dolce & Gabbana chairman but will keep a creative role
Stefano Gabbana has stepped down as chairman of the fashion house that he co-founded with Domenico Dolce | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Stefano Gabbana has stepped down as Dolce & Gabbana chairman but will keep a creative role
Stefano Gabbana has stepped down as chairman of the fashion house that he co-founded with Domenico Dolce | 830 WCCO
Stefano Gabbana has stepped down as Dolce & Gabbana chairman but will keep a creative role
Stefano Gabbana has stepped down as chairman of the fashion house that he co-founded with Domenico Dolce | Newsradio 1140 WRVA
Pittsfield Health Shuts Down North Street Eatery for 'Pests'
Closed sign on Iztac's front door. PITTSFIELD, Mass. — Iztac Mexican Restaurant is currently shut down by the Health Department. A hearing at the Board of...
Behind China's 'active efforts' for an Iran ceasefire: Business trumps politics
The big risk for Beijing is that the Iran war drags down global demand for the exports that are driving China's economic growth.
Behind China's 'active efforts' for an Iran ceasefire: Business trumps politics
The big risk for Beijing is that the Iran war drags down global demand for the exports that are driving China's economic growth.
As San Diego prepares for splashdown, scientists excited about Artemis II discoveries
But once the Orion has come and gone, interplanetary enthusiasts at Scripps and beyond will still have a place in San Diego — in fact, they've been here all along.
Crossroads District businesses react to Royals stadium proposal near their neighborhood
Local business owners in the Crossroads District reacted to the city's new Royals stadium proposal two years after voters denied a sales tax extension for a downtown baseball stadium.
Aviatra Accelerators to host Women-Owned Business Crawl April 25 in Covington
Aviatra Accelerators will showcase a new retail marketplace during its Women-Owned Business Crawl in downtown Covington and MainStrasse neighborhoods on Saturday, April 25, from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. The event will feature more than thirty women-owned businesses – from retail shops to bars, restaurants, and service providers – across Covington’s thriving small business community,...
Artemis II has cosmic plans that rely on Colorado's space science
The unit that has deep roots with Denver's Lockheed Martin splashes down on Friday evening.
Q4 Rundown: Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) Vs Other Consumer Discretionary
Quarterly earnings results are a good time to check in on a company’s progress, especially compared to its peers in the same sector. Today we are looking at ...
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Stock Trades Down, Here Is Why
Shares of global online betting powerhouse Flutter Entertainment (NASDAQ:FLUT) fell 4.3% in the afternoon session after an analyst from Citizens lowered the price target for the company, citing a cautious outlook for the U.S. online gaming sector.
‘Showing the upside to Down syndrome’: Columbia woman’s business giving back and inspiring others
Jewelry can hold meaning far beyond what meets the eye. For Columbia creator Lucy Graham, each bracelet and necklace is made with a purpose: showing “the upside to Down Syndrome.”
Clippers, Trail Blazers duke it out for No. 8 seed
Jockeying for positioning in the Western Conference play-in round hits the home stretch on Friday when the Portland Trail Blazers welcome the Los Angeles Clippers for a crucial showdown.
Grizzlies offer chance for slumping Jazz to play different tune
The Utah Jazz have shown flashes of potential and competitiveness during its current 10-game losing streak. But the lows have outnumbered the highs heading into a showdown with the Memphis Grizzlies in Salt Lake City on Friday night.
Marathon Reportedly Had a Budget of Over $200 Million — and While the Pressure Is on Bungie to Gain More Players, It Is Not Facing an Imminent, Concord-Style Shutdown
A new report has claimed Marathon’s budget is over $200 million, and while player numbers have fallen significantly since launch, Bungie’s extraction shooter is allegedly not facing an imminent shutdown.
Fitch cuts FS KKR Capital rating to junk territory as asset quality weakens
Fitch Ratings on Thursday downgraded its rating on a private credit fund jointly run by Future Standard and KKR to junk territory, citing continued deterioration in its asset quality.
Dawand Jones' Health Update - 04.09.26
On today's episode of Cleveland Browns Daily, Tackle Dawand Jones stops by to give us an update on his health and his recovery from last season's injury. The guys hear from our great friend Greg Cosell as he breaks down this year's wide receiver class and
‘We need new blood’: Texas voters look for leadership changes, fresh faces this election year
Some vocal Texas voters say they want to get rid of politicians who've served the state for decades. Much of that sentiment can be boiled down to a preference for younger candidates with new energy — or even older ones who buck long-held status quo.
Former Erie County DA John Flynn eyeing town of Tonawanda supervisor job
Longtime Supervisor Joe Emminger announced he would be stepping down in May.
Goodwill closes behavioral health services program in Grand Island
Goodwill is shutting down behavioral health programs in Grand Island, which served those struggling with developmental disabilities, brain injuries, mental health, substance use and more.
'At the edge of the future': ASU breaks ground for better health outcomes for Arizona
Arizona State University is taking a huge step toward addressing one of the biggest crises in the U.S. — the disparity in health care, according to ASU President Michael Crow.Crow spoke Thursday in downtown Phoenix at the groundbreaking of the headquarters for ASU Health, the hub of the university’s efforts to improve health outcomes for Arizona residents.He told the crowd that despite great wealth, the U.S. health care system is failing.
'At the edge of the future': University breaks ground on ASU Health building
Arizona State University is taking a huge step toward addressing one of the biggest crises in the U.S. — the disparity in health care, according to ASU President Michael Crow.Crow spoke Thursday in downtown Phoenix at the groundbreaking of the headquarters for ASU Health, the hub of the university’s efforts to improve health outcomes for Arizona residents.He told the crowd that despite great wealth, the U.S. health care system is failing.
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Stock Trades Down, Here Is Why
What Happened? Shares of global online betting powerhouse Flutter Entertainment (NASDAQ:FLUT) fell 4.3% in the afternoon session after an analyst from Citize...
Apple Releases macOS Tahoe 26.4.1 With Bug Fixes
Apple today released macOS Tahoe 26.4.1, a minor update to the macOS Tahoe operating system that came out last September. macOS Tahoe 26.4.1 comes two weeks after Apple launched macOS Tahoe 26.4. Mac users can download the new software by opening up the System Settings app and navigating to the Software Update section. Mac users can download the new software by opening up the System Settings app and navigating to the Software Update section.
Amazon upsets ebook lovers by ending support for old Kindle devices
Up to 2m e-readers made before 2013 will no longer be able to download new titles
Kiln: Double Fine Shares Their Favorite Pots as Open Beta Goes Live
Now’s your chance to sample Kiln before launch on April 23 during the Open Beta Throwdown on Steam – and Double Fine is here to help inspire your creations with some of their most-favorite pots! Pre-order Kiln today on Xbox, PlayStation, and PC.
Judge strikes down DEC regulation over definition of 'freshwater wetland'
Business groups and landowners argued the rules would make it much harder to get new development projects off the ground like housing.
Downtown Augusta businesses give update on sales during golf week
As tournament play begins, we’re checking in with businesses in downtown Augusta to see how the week has been so far for them.
Inside The Business of BET: How Louis Carr Is Leading A New Chapter In Black Media
Louis Carr, the President of Black Entertainment Television sits down with Forbes senior writer Jabari Young on The Enterprise Zone at Nasdaq MarketSite.
ASU breaks ground on health campus in downtown Phoenix
Crews broke ground Thursday morning on the new home of Arizona State University’s health campus in downtown Phoenix.