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Florence community rallies for local business owner diagnosed with brain tumor, here’s how you can help
The Florence community held a fundraising event for a local business owner who was diagnosed with a brain tumor for the second time.
Local business gathers donations for Venezuela earthquake victims
HARRISBURG, Pa. (WHTM) — A local business is stepping up to help earthquake victims in Venezuela. The Arepa House on Second Street in Harrisburg is accepting donations all day Sunday. They sa…
Standing Committee recommends adoption of four new business items, discusses relationship of the Church of the Brethren and Eder Financial
The Standing Committee of district delegates to the Church of the Brethren Annual Conference held meetings from Thursday evening, June 25, through Saturday afternoon, June 27, in Fort Wayne, Ind. Annual Conference moderator Don Fitzkee presided, assisted by moderator-elect Dennis Beckner and Conference secretary David Shumate.
Esports means business for new generation of fans
Valhallan, a youth esports training organization, hosted a grand reopening of its second Long Island storefront in Wantagh on Saturday.
Eugenio Suárez rescues Reds in 9-7 win over Pirates
The Reds got a 9th inning homer from the slugger they hope can carry them through the season’s second half.
Hawaii is turning ocean plastic and fishing nets into roads
Hawaii researchers are giving old fishing nets and recycled plastic a second life by mixing them into asphalt roads. Early tests found these roads didn't release more plastic particles than standard pavement, with tire wear overwhelming any plastic signal from the recycled material. If future studies confirm the roads are durable, the technology could help tackle both marine pollution and overflowing landfills.
Soccer meets nature at Vancouver mountaintop watch party
The match between England and Panama was shown on a big screen atop Grouse Mountain, a 4,100-foot mountain that's part of the Pacific Ranges with a sweeping view of British Columbia. When Jude Bellingham scored England's breakthrough goal in the second half, the fans roared. Both Toronto and Vancouver are hosting matches during the tournament.
Starz Entertainment (STRZ) Stock Sees Fair Value Lift After Q1 Analyst Target Increases
Price targets for Starz Entertainment have shifted as the analyst fair value estimate moved from US$19.38 to US$28.50, putting a higher reference point in focus for investors tracking the stock. Recent Street research has turned more constructive after the Q1 report, with several firms lifting price targets and updating models to reflect how they now view execution risks and valuation support. In the sections that follow, you will see how to interpret these changing targets and what they...
Usha Vance pokes fun at ‘political significance’ of maternity dress
Second lady Usha Vance poked fun at a New York Times article examining the public image of pregnant women in President Trump’s orbit, joking that she did not realize her maternity dress carried so …
Hurricanes Acquire Rights To Top Offensive Blueliner John Carlson
Carolina secures exclusive negotiating rights with the veteran power-play specialist as they look to bolster their defensive core before the free agency market opens.
Carlisle Cathedral, University of Cumbria secure grant to explore science and faith connections in local farming landscapes - Lutheran Alliance for Faith, Science and Technology
Carlisle Cathedral and the University of Cumbria won a £9,850 grant to explore how science and faith connect in Cumbria's farming landscapes.
Dean Cain discusses stark contrast in patriotism among political parties
Actor Dean Cain joins 'Fox News Live' from the Great American State Fair in Washington, D.C., to share his take on patriotism and a tense border hearing with DHS Secretary Mullin.
Bruins draft goalie Yuri Ivanov with second-round pick
The Bruins went with a goalie with their first pick of the 2026 NHL Draft.
Flyers continue to add on defense with first of two second-round picks
With their first of two second-round picks in the 2026 NHL draft, the Flyers selected Brek Liske.
FISU reinforces its commitment to the World University Sports Movement
On the second day of the meeting, the Executive Committee focused on the upcoming Universiades and the future of the FISU Forum. After a first day concentrating on updating statutes and strategies for a simpler, more innovative and effective future, FISU’s Executive Committee focused on upcoming events on this second and last day of their […]
Former Washington health care executive pleads guilty to $24 million wire fraud scheme
A former health care executive in North Central Washington has pleaded guilty to wire fraud after prosecutors say he siphoned tens of millions of dollars.
What scientists discovered about coffee grounds will transform construction industry - Futura-Sciences
At the start of 2024, a study published several months ago is once again drawing attention. Scientists at RMIT University in Australia have identified an unexpected use for spent coffee grounds, opening the door to a promising solution for both the construction sector and organic waste management. From coffee waste...
Are ghosts real? What top scientists secretly found will shock you - Futura-Sciences
The Enigma of Cryptozoology Cryptozoology is the study of animals whose existence hasn’t been scientifically proven. Think about it: creatures like the Yeti, the Loch Ness Monster, or the giant squid. Sometimes these beings seem straight out of outlandish legends—a touch of myth, a dash of curiosity, and a sprinkle...
Week in Politics: Trump and bipartisan housing bill, John Bolton; Democratic socialists
President Trump canceled a signing for major housing legislation, former National Security Advisor John Bolton pled guilty to mishandling classified documents, and Democratic Socialists made gains.
Malachi Moreno: “Next year is my year”
Big expectations surrounds Kentucky’s second-year, homegrown center.
Exit statement from midfielder baffles Real Madrid fans
Real Madrid confirmed what had been an open secret on Friday, that Dani Ceballos would be leaving. The 29-year-old has been a bit-part player for some time, but continued reports about his exit seemed...
Trossard, De Bruyne score and Belgium defeats New Zealand 5-1 to advance at the World Cup
A flurry of late goals helped secure Belgium’s place in the knockout rounds, while New Zealand are heading home without a win.
Trump-backed Letlow faces Fleming in Louisiana GOP Senate runoff
President Donald Trump’s choice for U.S. Senate in Louisiana is seeking to secure the GOP nomination and deliver another win for the president in his effort to replace Republicans who crossed him
Muslera blunders, sets unwanted Cup record, and socials pounce
In Guadalajara, Mexico, Spain is leading Uruguay 1-0 this Friday (26), in the third round of the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.La Celeste’s partial defeat, in fact, is securing Cape Verde��...
Will Cannon posts second-round 61, leads Memorial Health Championship presented by LRS
Will Cannon grabs a one-shot lead through 36 holes at the Memorial Health Championship presented by LRS after posting a 10-under 61 on Friday.
National Science Foundation finds no violations in Texas A&M research security contract
U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar, a Michigan Republican who chairs the House of Representatives' select committee on China, had urged the NSF to pause funding for a project known as SECURE.
Nia Long explains why she turned down Prince's advances
The "Michael" actress said that she later met Prince a second time: "He was lovely, but we talked about my hair the whole time."
US government allows Anthropic limited release of AI model that sparked cybersecurity concerns
The US government has allowed Anthropic to release its powerful Mythos AI model to select companies and organizations, revising license requirements after ordering an export block earlier this month in the wake of national security fears.
Audio: RFK Jr. urges Libertarian candidate to drop out race to help GOP keep House
OutFront obtains audio of US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. urging a Libertarian congressional candidate in Iowa to drop out of the race to improve Republicans’ chances of winning - and keep control of the House. Rick Stewart, who had no prior relationship with RFK Jr., tells Erin Burnett it’s “ludicrous” a Trump cabinet official would make such an offer.
Peters, Bergman lead Michigan delegation in calling on Small Business Administration to approve disaster declaration
WASHINGTON, DC — U.S. Senator Gary Peters (D-MI), Ranking Member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, led members of the Michigan Congressional Delegation in urging the Small Business Administration (SBA) to support Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s request for an administrative disaster declaration following the severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, large hail and torrential […]
CAKE, Smokey Robinson headline annual Memorial Park concert in Omaha on Friday
Crowds began filling the park earlier in the day, with some attendees arriving at dawn to secure their preferred spots.
‘A total fairytale’: Former Watergate prosecutor reacts to Vance’s comments on the scandal
First Bend Block Party draws crowds to Central District
Live music, art, food and fun are taking over Bend’s Central District for the first Bend Block Party. Come down to Second Street near Open Space and check it out before 9 p.m. today!
But-For Causation and the Essential Business Hurdle: Analyzing the Summary Judgment in RAAM Construction
RAAM Construction Inc v. United States of America, Case No. 2:25-cv-04681-SPG-AJR, 2026 WL 18391 (C.D. Cal. June 23, 2026). The Employee Retention Credit (ERC) codified under Internal Revenue Code Section 3134 remains a significant source of controversy, audits, and high-stakes federal litigation.
This Week's 10 Must-Read Stories on Women in Politics: Title IX Anniversary, AI's Anti-Women Bias and Ranked-Choice Voting Victories
Weekend Reading on Women’s Representation is a weekly compilation of stories about women’s representation in politics, on boards, in sports and entertainment, in judicial offices and in the private sector in the U.S. and around the world—with a little gardening and goodwill mixed in for refreshment! Published every Friday. —This week marked the 54th anniversary of Title IX. —As the Taliban approaches the five-year mark of its return to power this August, a rare protest in western Afghanistan last week laid bare both the brutality of its rule and the resilience of those living under it. —A woman will replace Eric Swalwell in California … but for not two more months. —A study of 133 AI systems found that 44 percent demonstrated gender bias, and more than a quarter showed both gender and racial bias. ... and more.
Barker reclaims title at National Road Championships
Megan Barker reclaims her British elite women's circuit race title as the second day of the National Road Championships produces its second Welsh winner.
Senators call for military healthcare program to cover autism therapy as a basic benefit
A letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth follows an NBC News investigation into the military healthcare program’s restrictions on applied behavioral therapy.
Pete Buttigieg was briefly separated from his children after police say he was target of false report
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was the target of an anonymous report that police determined was false and that he says forced him to spend a night away from his four-year-old twins.
France's Ousmane Dembélé records second-fastest hat trick in World Cup history in 4-1 win over Norway
UC San Diego hosts free Comic-Con events, intersecting health and science through fiction
UC San Diego is holding a badge-free series of comic and science-inspired events in tandem through The Science of Story, from July 21-26.
Art Garfunkel shares secret to lasting 38-year marriage: 'I can't live without my wife being in accord'
'Bridge Over Troubled Water' singer Art Garfunkel shares secret to his lasting 38-year marriage with wife Kathryn 'Kim' Luce: 'I can't live without my wife being in accord.'
EA Sports College Football 27 Will Be Without Two Surprising Stars
One of the most anticipated video game releases of the year is set to arrive on July 9 when EA Sports releases College Football 27 worldwide.This marks the third consecutive annual release since the series returned after an 11-year hiatus.Players who want to be included in the game must actively opt in through a structured […] The post EA Sports College Football 27 Will Be Without Two Surprising Stars appeared first on HEAVY.
Mia Sara reflects on working with ‘weird guy’ Tom Cruise in 'Legend'
Mia Sara recalls working with Tom Cruise in the Ridley Scott film 'Legend,' saying the actor was 'very insecure.'
Meet ‘Pepper’ Baumer, The Man With Hot Sauce In His Blood
Hot sauce has been one of the hottest sectors of the food industry and third-generation owner ‘Pepper’ Baumer has built Crystal, his family’s century-old business, into a $50 million Southern staple.
Six Kentucky Football Players Included on Athlon Sports’ 2026 All-SEC Team
Ty Bryant, Tavion Gadson, Lance Heard, Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace, Coleton Price and Willie Rodriguez were honored by the magazine
Your Social Security benefits could be cut by a quarter in 2032. Here’s what to know
Americans’ Social Security benefits will have to be cut by roughly a quarter in six years due to depleted funds, according to a June 9 report from the Social Security Board of Trustees. That’s months sooner than the group had estimated in 2025.
Ex-national security adviser John Bolton pleads guilty to illegally retaining classified information
Former Trump administration national security adviser John Bolton pleaded guilty on Friday to illegally retaining classified information, sealing a deal with federal prosecutors that could allow him to avoid a prison term.
As Pa. measles outbreak worsens, state health official issue strong call to action: 'We are not just sitting back and watching this virus spread'
LANCASTER, Pa. — State Health Secretary Debra Bogen on Friday issued a strong call to action in the wake of a measles outbreak not seen in Pennsylvania...
Evoke Entertainment Signs Tribeca-Honored Filmmaker Elisee Junior St. Preux
EXCLUSIVE: Evoke Entertainment has signed Haitian American filmmaker Elisee Junior St. Preux, whose debut feature The Tropic Sun and His Eyes world premiered in Tribeca’s Viewpoints section and earned...
Pennsylvania’s Health Secretary unveils plan to combat measles outbreaks
LANCASTER COUNTY, Pa. (WHTM) — Pennsylvania’s Health Secretary Dr. Debra Bogen was in Lancaster County on Friday, giving an update about the measles outbreak in the state, with most of …
PepsiCo Q2 earnings expected to reflect weakness in North American snack business, delayed recovery
PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP, XETRA:PEP) earnings outlook was trimmed by Bank of America analysts ahead of the company’s second quarter results, with softer-than-expected performance in its North American snacks business offsetting steadier international trends. The analysts lowered their fiscal...
Biggest offseason question for every East team: Will Knicks duck second apron? What's next for Celtics, Heat?
Can New York keep its championship roster together? What will Boston do with Jaylen Brown?
John Bolton pleads guilty to illegally retaining classified information
His plea deal with federal prosecutors could help him avoid prison time
CSUF Report Finds Family Businesses Drive Jobs and Revenue in Fullerton
The city of Fullerton is home to a vibrant entrepreneurial community, with family-owned businesses serving as a cornerstone of the local economy. The family business sector in Fullerton is the subject of a new report researched and published by Tim Schultz, the head of Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Family Business. Chethan Srikant, associate professor […]
Thunder reportedly trade Isaiah Joe to Pistons for two second-round draft picks
Isaiah Joe still has two years left on his contract.
HHS Expands Secure Access to Health Records Through the TEFCA® Network, Announces Milestone of One Billion Health Records Exchanged
The Office of the National Coordinator for Health IT at HHS announced new steps to strengthen the Trusted Exchange Framework and Common Agreement™ TEFCA®
Standout transfer edge rusher reportedly off team at SEC school
Was rated as 4-star transfer after entering portal
Why Your Nighttime Dreams Are So Weird—Science Finally Has the Answer - Futura-Sciences
The Secret Life of Dreams: Not Just Random Nonsense Remember the dream you had last night? Maybe you’re left with just a trace—a sweet feeling, maybe, or a strange discomfort. But there’s rarely a story you could actually retell. Because, in the end, a dream is a deeply personal experience....
Scientists Turn Wet Coffee Grounds Into Coal-Like Fuel in Just 90 Seconds
A new process skips energy-intensive drying for recycling coffee waste.
Nintendo Switch 2 ends first full year in the U.S. at nearly 6 million units sold, second fastest-selling video game system
Following the latest U.S. sales report from Circana, we have information about the first full-year sales of Nintendo Switch 2. The console ended its first twelve months at 5.9 million units sold. According to Circana, it’s the second fastest-selling video game system in the U.S. with tracked history dating back to 1995. The only other platform to outdo it was...
Four bad habits tournament golf exposed within my game
What one writer learned from his second tournament round of the year.
Securitize and Cantor Equity Partners II Business Combination Expected to Raise Approximately $400 million in Gross Proceeds and Announce Expected Closing of Business Combination and NYSE Listing
/PRNewswire/ -- Securitize, Inc. ("Securitize" or the "Company"), and Cantor Equity Partners II, Inc. (Nasdaq: CEPT) ("CEPT"), a publicly traded special...
2026 SEC football predictions: Game-by-game picks, projecting every team's final win-loss record
Continuing our early-summer projection series for all 16 teams in the SEC and where they'll end up in the postseason
How to get free Windows 10 security patches until October 2027 - and avoid the $30 fee
Don't want to pay to keep Windows 10 security updates? Microsoft has several workarounds, with the best deal for European users.
Ex-Trump adviser John Bolton expected to plead guilty in classified information case
Bolton to plead guilty charges that he unlawfully retained sensitive national security information in agreement that includes $2.25m fine
Why Pollinators Matter for Human Health | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
New research shows that wild insect pollinators play a critical role in nutrition and livelihoods.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
Small Creatures, Big Mission: NMHM Bugapalooza 2026 Connects Science and Military Readiness
Mosquitoes, ticks, flies, and pollinators drew a crowd at the National Museum of Health and Medicine's Bugapalooza on June 13. Nearly 400 visitors attended the annual event to explore the world of insects through hands-on activities, exhibits, and conversations with military and civilian experts.
Trump foe John Bolton is set to plead guilty. Here’s why the case didn’t fall apart
As several criminal investigations into President Donald Trump’s foes continue to flail, federal prosecutors are now ushering one of his biggest critics to a conviction.
Federal AI security center measure advanced by House Science
A measure that would put into law a key federal office focused on artificial intelligence advanced Thursday out of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, as part of a slate of AI-focused and data center bills. The committee advanced the bills on a bipartisan basis, but put off potential changes regarding funding levels for […]
World Cup brings a boost to bar and restaurant businesses across the Piedmont-Triad
Bars and taprooms across the Piedmont-Triad are extending their hours and providing the ultimate experience as the World Cup enters its second week.
The Business of Beauty Global Awards 2026: Winners Announced
Wavy, Secret Alchemist, Sarelly, Dr. Diamond’s Metacine, Borntostandout and Suri are the winners of The Business of Beauty Global Awards 2026, honoured on Thursday at the Global Forum in Napa Valley, California.
4 Takeaways From USA's Last-Second World Cup Loss To Türkiye
So much for a perfect group stage. But the USA can now turn its attention toward the knockout stages.
Shohei Ohtani Earns Three Nominations for 2026 ESPYS
Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers has redefined what a two-way player can look like in the modern era of baseball. Ohtani is coming off a 2025 season in which he won his fourth MVP and second straight World Series championship. On Thursday, ESPN announced the nominations for the 2026 ESPYS awards.
Sharonville mom raising money for UC Health's ICU patient program after she nearly died
It's been a year since a Sharonville mom suffered a medical emergency days after giving birth to her second child.
Trump nominates Chris Klomp as HHS second-in-command
President Donald Trump on Thursday named Medicare director and former health care executive Chris Klomp to be deputy secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services.
Senators demand probe into reports of secret Trump-Emrati crypto deal: ‘let them say it under oath’
21ALIVE SPORTS DIGITAL EXCLUSIVE: Loyer to the Clippers, TinCaps find second half success
21Alive Sports Director Andy Newman and Weekend Sports Anchor Nia Hinson catch you up on this week’s sports news.
Man Utd's Onana set for Trabzonspor loan
Manchester United goalkeeper Andre Onana is close to securing a second loan spell at Turkish club Trabzonspor.
The Business of Beauty Global Forum: Inside the Industry
Jane Hertzmark Hudis, Simone Dominici and Vicky Tsai were among the speakers unpacking the most pressing topics for the industry in the second session of The Business of Beauty Global Forum 2026.
University, State of Utah sign agreement for proposed south valley health campus
U of U Health has secured land for a proposed health campus that will serve as the health care anchor for the 600-acre master-planned development...
Illinois financial adviser charged with operating Ponzi scheme
Prosecutors allege Paaris Kopsaftis of Des Plaines-based Blackwater Assets took more than $150,000 from clients in a Ponzi-like scheme.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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