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HHS’ Office for Civil Rights Secures Provider Compliance with Disability Rights Laws
HHS’ Office for Civil Rights Secures Provider Compliance with Disability Rights Laws
‘Consider it one more sign of the decline in the democratic experiment’
Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
First time at Masters: Surprising things, what it's like at tournament
My first time at the Masters Tournament in Augusta, Georgia, was filled with cheap food, golf, incredible merch hauls, and surprising rules.
Dave Chappelle stands firm through backlash and considers revisiting ‘Chappelle’s Show’
Dave Chappelle finds clarity away from the spotlight in the Ohio village where he lives. In an interview, he reflects on his comedic voice, which has sparked debate and criticism,
Reservations for Slate's 'mid-$20,000' EV pickup cross 160,000
Investors are betting a fresh $650 million that Slate can make its proudly bare-bones EV pickup a hit. The company is targeting a 2026 launch.
Windows 11 is finally removing the 32GB FAT32 capacity limit
Windows 11 Insider builds now let you format drives up to 2TB in FAT32 via Command Prompt, ending a decades-old arbitrary limit.
Here's what Delta's new business class suite will look like
Delta has replaced its classic red, white, and blue business class with a refreshed new look. Here's what customers can expect in the future suites.
Lessons from the OIG: Common Billing Errors Texas Home Health Providers Need to Know | Insights
The Texas Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General (HHSC-OIG) quarterly report highlights common billing errors and compliance issues in home healthcare settings.
IRA Financial Named Business of the Year by Sioux Empire United Way
SIOUX FALLS, S.D., April 13, 2026--IRA Financial, a leading provider of self-directed retirement solutions, today announced it has been named Business of the Year by Sioux Empire United Way as part of its 2026 annual Thank You Event. The award recognizes organizations that demonstrate exceptional commitment to supporting the Sioux Empire community through philanthropy, volunteerism, and leadership.
GTA 6 Hackers Say Stolen Data "Will be Published as Their Demands Had Not Been Met"
Hackers have said they will publish data obtained from GTA 6 developer Rockstar Games online because their demands have not been met.
Tesla is selling 250 invite-only Model S 'Signatures' for $160,000
Elon Musk's automaker is inviting a select group of fans to purchase limited-edition versions of its soon-to-be-discontinued Model X and S luxury EVs.
Leaker adds support for red iPhone 18 color rumor, in a slightly weird way
Bloomberg reported back in February that Apple was considering a new deep red color option for the iPhone 18 Pro,...
Radiology Partners reportedly eyeing international expansion
America’s largest radiology group has purportedly considered making a bid to buy its Australian counterpart, which tallied over $176 million in adjusted earnings last year.
AI usage limits are causing some people to restructure their workdays
Session limits on AI tools can frustrate users who are forced to rejigger their workdays. Others like a chance to hit the gym and see friends.
Where to invest $10,000 right now amid Iran war volatility: 9 market pros
We bring you the latest in our series on how to invest $10,000, with nine Wall Street pros sounding off on where they'd park a chunk of cash right now.
China’s TCL Is Said to Consider Stake Sale in India TV Business
TCL Electronics Holdings Ltd. is considering selling a stake in its Indian television manufacturing unit to local buyers to help grow the business, people familiar with the situation said.
Baker Hughes sells Waygate unit to Hexagon for about $1.45 billion
Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes sold its Waygate Technologies unit to Swedish industrial technology group Hexagon for about $1.45 billion in cash, the two companies said on Monday.
JAXA's 22-Year Bet on Frozen Comet Samples: What a Multi-Decade Mission Timeline Means for Planetary Science Funding
In the world of planetary science, a decade-long mission is considered ambitious. JAXA, Japan’s space agency, is now weighing something far more audacious: a sample return mission that wouldn’t deliver its cargo until the late 2040s, more than 22 years from the earliest planning stages. The proposed Next Generation Small-Body Return (NGSR) mission to comet […]
Tested: Windows 11 just fixed slow storage management and removed a 30-year FAT32 limit
Windows 11 improves storage performance and removes FAT32 32GB limit. Disk properties now load faster in latest Insider builds.
IMF director says shock from US-Iran War is 'baked' into the economy
War has ravaged the Middle East for 43 days, but the damage could take years to repair amid tension at the Strait of Hormuz and damaged oil hubs.
Patient-Provider Discussions on Lung Cancer Screening: Insights From the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS)
Background Lung cancer risk is significantly elevated in individuals with chronic lung diseases (CLDs), including asthma, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis. Despite this, lung cancer screenin...
Oil prices surge after failed US-Iran peace talks, Trump's blockade
Vice President JD Vance traveled to Pakistan on Saturday to engage in peace talks with Iran. However, the two countries failed to reach a deal.
Suspect in Molotov attack on Sam Altman linked to AI Discord
Authorities in San Francisco booked the suspect on Friday, and is facing several charges. Including arson of an inhabited structure or property.
Jim Cramer on D-Wave (QBTS): “Maybe the Science Project Works Out, But It Is More of a Science Project”
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE:QBTS) is among the stocks Jim Cramer discussed alongside the tech market divide. A caller asked if Cramer thinks companies like D-Wave Quantum are positioned to rebound. In response, Cramer commented: Well, I think it’s more of a, candidly, it’s more of a science project, which I don’t mean, you know, look, […]
Xbox Showcase Reportedly Coming Next Week, Metro 2039 May Be Revealed
NateTheHate provides an update on when players can expect the next Xbox Games Showcase. Supposedly, it's coming next week
Former Xbox Exec Says Developers Didn't Want a Sony Monopoly
Former Xbox executive Ed Fries comments on the early days of Xbox, the opinion of Japanese game companies, and more.
Apple Reportedly Testing AI Glasses in Several Frame Styles
Apple is also considering a camera setup with vertically oriented oval lenses with surrounding lights, Mark Gurman reports.
I chased pro bowling while working fast food. It paid off.
Kyle Troup went from working at Wendy's to earning nearly $500,000 in a record-breaking bowling season and building financial security.
CVS Health Corporation (CVS): Legal Clarity and Core Strengths Support the Bull Case
CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) is one of the undervalued large cap stocks to buy. On March 25, UBS analyst Kevin Caliendo reiterated a Buy rating and $97 price target on CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS). Caliendo said that CVS’s proposed settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over insulin pricing could lift a major cloud that […]
Flory Bidunga reportedly commits to Louisville basketball, Pat Kelsey
Flory Bidunga, who many considered to be the top player in the NCAA transfer portal, has reportedly picked Louisville basketball and coach Pat Kelsey.
My grandma got a smartphone at 80. It changed her life.
After my grandmother became hooked on YouTube Shorts, I realized it was more than entertainment — it was a glimpse of the life she missed.
Arc Raiders Launches Map Conditions tracker - here's what the tracker tells us
Embark Studios has released a new tracker to help players monitor map conditions across Arc Raiders.
'Tarkov in Space' Revealed as Fragmentary Order, a Sci-Fi 'Combat Simulator'
Rant Gaming has unveiled Fragmentary Order, a new first-person shooter that many have dubbed Escape from Tarkov in space.
New report claims Microsoft is considering changing Day One access to Call of Duty on Game Pass
Microsoft is reportedly considering dropping Call of Duty from its Game Pass Day One offering.
Inside a decommissioned nuclear silo from the Cold War
Nik Halik, an entrepreneur and venture capitalist, bought a decommissioned nuclear silo for more than $10 million. He plans to turn it into a data center.
Inside the $350 million missile silo that could become a data center
Tech firms are turning missile silos and abandoned mines into secure data centers as Americans flock to survival camps amid rising fears of world war.
UNC basketball under Michael Malone: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TarHeel247, the 247Sports affiliate of the North Carolina Tar Heels, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
Eight years later, Apple quietly shuts the door on AI chief John Giannandrea
Since his retirement was announced in 2025, Apple Intelligence head John Giannandrea has been reduced to the role of an advisor, but is now expected to exit Apple Park shortly.
Duke basketball under Jon Scheyer: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TheDevilsDen, the 247Sports affiliate of the Duke Blue Devils, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
Trump announces blockade of Hormuz
President Trump has reacted to the failure of US-Iran peace talks by announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
I used Meta's Muse Spark AI to rate my lunch and suggest dinner
Muse Sparks rated my lunch a 7.5 out of 10, told me to watch my sodium intake, and gave me dinner recipes that helped me get rid of leftovers.
TikTok vigilante Daadi Snacks calls out obnoxious influencers
The creator behind the Daadi Snacks TikTok account posts videos criticizing influencer behavior. Some of his targets have not been amused.
Neandertals may have hunted and eaten outsiders, chilling cannibalism study finds
A cave in Belgium has revealed unsettling evidence that Neandertals selectively cannibalized outsiders, focusing on women and children. The victims weren’t from the local group and appear to have been treated like prey, with bones butchered for meat and marrow. This suggests the behavior wasn’t ritual, but practical—or possibly linked to intergroup conflict. The discovery paints a darker, more complex picture of Neandertal life during their final millennia.
Inside my $240-a-night room at theWit Chicago, a Hilton hotel
After spending one night at theWit, a Hilton hotel in Chicago, I think it's a top choice for luxury travelers on a budget.
Buy these 16 stocks that are primed to pop after Q1 earnings: Citi
Citi thinks investors should monitor these buy-rated stocks heading into earnings. The bank sees a post-earnings pop of 3% to 12% for stocks on the list.
How to keep your brain sharp and avoid overreliance on AI
A Workday report revealed that nearly half of workers are concerned about AI agents eroding their critical thinking skills.
Inside Tinder HQ, from a Lego station to roof-deck espresso
Tinder's West Hollywood headquarters has seaweed snacks, protein bars, and beer on tap. For those with a sweet tooth, there's full-size candy bars.
3 diet tweaks heart health nutrition scientist made to prevent disease
How quickly and when you eat could affect your metabolic and cardiovascular health, professor Sarah Berry said.
3 big questions for Tennessee quarterback battle after spring practice
Josh Heupel spoke in the future tense about the Tennessee quarterback competition. He needs to see more development. Here are factors to consider.
Ex-Tesla president mimicked Domino's pizza ordering to boost car sales
A former Tesla boss said he and Elon Musk spotted a problem with the carmaker's website. They turned to Domino's for inspiration.
Taco Bell's Golden Bell awards are key to its company growth
Taco Bell's annual management retreat is more than recognition for its top-performing staff — it's a key driver of growth and staff retention.
SPFL prepare for Old Firm play-off
The Scottish Professional Football League is preparing for a potential Old Firm Premiership play-off should the title race end in a deadlock between Rangers and Celtic. Daily Record) Lawrence Shankland looks increasingly likely to stay at Heart of Midlothian until the end of the 30-year-old Scotland striker's current contract despite long-standing interest in his signature from Rangers. (Football Insider)
Atlanta Braves’ Walt Weiss Shares Spencer Strider Injury Update
Spencer Strider received an important update on Saturday.
Insider: Why are politicians cursing so much lately?
“I think that it is simply because it’s accepted,” one political science professor said of the trend of increased public cursing by politicians.
An AI launched this retail store and hired employees on its own
Andon Labs let an AI loose with $100,000 to start a small store in San Francisco.
UBS Raises Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. (WOOF) Target Amid Growth Strategy
Petco Health & Wellness Co. Inc. (NASDAQ:WOOF) is one of the best cheap penny stocks to buy that aren’t scams. On March 16, UBS raised its price target on Petco Health & Wellness Co. Inc. (NASDAQ:WOOF) to $4.00 from $3.50, while keeping a Neutral rating. The positive stance underscores the research firm’s confidence about the […]
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Cleveland Browns NFL Draft Profile: RB Cash Jones, Georgia
Are the Browns considering this Bulldog as the newest member of the Dawg Pound?
Laurel: Making a hit at the school science fair
In Brian Nelson's Laurel cartoon, our girl's entry in the school science fair makes a considerable hit.
Laurel: Making a hit at the school science fair
In Brian Nelson's Laurel cartoon, our girl's entry in the school science fair makes a considerable hit.
Anthropic may soon pass OpenAI on this measure of AI business spending
Anthropic has seen a surge in business spending in recent months, according to Ramp's AI index.
Epic set to release Arc Raiders-like extraction shooter with Disney characters by the end of the year
Epic Games will allegedly release an Arc Raiders-like shooter later this year.
Chicago Cubs Rumors: Insider Addresses Likelihood of Lucas Giolito Signing
Appeals court says Trump White House ballroom construction can proceed for now
A federal appeals court said Saturday that President Donald Trump can move ahead for another week with construction of a massive new White House ballroom while judges consider the project.
Anthropic's Claude for Word is a new challenge to Microsoft's empire
Anthropic launched a beta version of Claude for Word. It's another challenge to Microsoft's software empire, and a bid to appeal to lawyers.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Letting kids swear taught me a better way to parent
By dropping the no-swearing rule, I found a calmer, more connected home — and fewer unnecessary arguments with my kids.
2026 NFL Draft Profile: Texas tight end Jack Endries
Texas tight end Jack Endries is a Day 3 prospect the Denver Broncos should consider in the 2026 NFL Draft.
How AI used Adobe Lightroom like a human, only faster
OpenAI's Codex AI coding service worked out how to use Adobe Lightroom like a human, denoising 50 photos without an API or plugin.
The Masters: The biggest quirks and traditions at Augusta
No birds, cheap food, and artificial dye in the water are just a few of the Masters' quirks. See everything that makes the tournament unique.
I shut down my successful brick-and-mortar business to reinvent myself
I spent two decades as a solopreneur building my photography studio. In my 50s, I wanted to try something new. I'm now reinventing myself in midlife.
Unemployed recent college grad: I've applied to over 1,000 jobs
I studied abroad four times, I earned my master's, and I became a global scholar. But I still can't find a job. All my applications go unanswered.
Lima Ridge Elementary principal honored for STEM education leadership
Lima Ridge Elementary Principal Kurt Scheiderer received an award for his commitment to building a strong STEM culture.
Splatoon Raiders rated by PEGI, suggests imminent release
Nintendo has updated the official EU eShop listing for Splatoon Raiders, adding a “PEGI 7” age rating classification to the upcoming Switch 2 exclusive. As spotted by a Splatoon superfan on Twitter/X…
Job hunter emailed company after getting ghosted post-interview
After multiple interviews and weeks of silence, a job seeker says she emailed the hiring team to push for better communication.
These 6 airlines offer beds in economy; tickets can cost up to $2,600
United got the coach bed idea from Air New Zealand, which debuted its famous "Skycouch" in 2011. A few other airlines have adopted their own version.
Council to seek clarity on authority to hold public vote on Rock Creek Entertainment District TIF districts
Norman City Council will consider an agenda item Tuesday that could help determine if the city has authority to hold a public vote on the Rock Creek Entertainment District tax
Tigers back in the win column, blank Marlins in opener
Behind a sterling start from Keider Montero and just enough offense, the Tigers shut out the Marlins, 2-0, at Comerica Park on Friday.
City council to consider determining authority to bring entertainment district TIF to public vote
City council to consider determining authority to bring entertainment district TIF to public vote
Anthropic Mythos cybersecurity concerns: What smart people are saying
Anthropic's Mythos AI model sparked cybersecurity concerns, but some think it's been overhyped. Here's what smart people re saying.
Report: Dianna Russini "will not be reporting" during internal investigation
The New York Times has reversed course regarding NFL insider Dianna Russini.
City to consider seeking declaratory judgement on entertainment district TIF election
The Norman City Council will meet Tuesday to consider authorizing the city attorney’s office to initiate litigation to obtain a declaratory judgment on whether it has the legal authority to
Cowboys should consider this offensive player in 1st round
Is there any way you would be okay with Dallas going offense in the first round?
Sunset Buzz: In a world of AI, Jay Pham says, consider an Irish sports bar
The Four Deuces, 2319 Taraval Street, has anchored the neighborhood for decades. The latest chapter comes with a change in ownership.
Molotov cocktail thrown at Sam Altman's $27 million home
The San Francisco Police Department said a 20-year-old suspect is in custody and charges are pending. OpenAI praised the police's quick response.
Microsoft makes it easier for Windows Insider testers to get new features
Windows Insider builds remain confusing, but they should be more predictable.
Nebraska DHHS will pay health care providers to live and work in rural areas
Providers are eligible for up to $75,000 a year and must commit to work in a rural community for five years in a facility that accepts Medicaid. Federal grant money from the One Big Beautiful Bill will fund the initiative.
White House warns staff against insider trading on prediction markets
The White House recently warned staff not to engage in insider trading on prediction markets and other platforms, according to a White House official.
Business Week participants consider the cost of ‘doing business’ - News
The Lundy-Fetterman School of Business marked the 20th anniversary of its annual Business Week, centered on “The Cost of Doing… More on this post
Stayed in balcony cabin on Norwegian Cruise Line Luna ship: Review
I tried a balcony cabin on Norwegian Cruise Line's newest ship, Norwegian Luna. It has pros and cons, and could be a good value for some travelers.
Andrej Karpathy says there's a 'growing gap' among AI users
Ex-Tesla AI director and OpenAI founding member Andrej Karpathy wrote that AI power users and skeptics are "speaking past each other."
'I am thinking about it,' Kamala Harris says of 2028 presidential bid
Former Vice President Kamala Harris says she’s actively considering another presidential bid | 100.1 FM and AM 1020 KDKA
House Ethics Committee to consider sanctions for Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick on April 21
The meeting on punishment, up to expulsion, will happen as Florida lawmakers consider a map that already could end her career.
Ken Welch brings in just under $220K in Q1, but still falls further behind Charlie Crist in fundraising
Considering $85K of the Q1 funds came from a fund transfer, Welch raised just about $135K in new money.
Grab Apple's M5 MacBook Air for $949 this weekend, record low price
Thanks to a $150 discount, shoppers can grab Apple's 2026 M5 MacBook Air 13-inch for a record low $949.
BI Live debuts flagship event in San Francisco
Business Insider is bringing its journalism off the page and into the room with our first flagship BI Live event.
Six Flags Entertainment Corp (FUN): Leadership Changes Increase Operating Agency
Six Flags Entertainment Corp (NYSE:FUN) is one of the small cap stocks that make up 0.28% of George Soros stock portfolio. On April 1, Oppenheimer maintained its Outperform rating on Six Flags Entertainment Corp (NYSE:FUN) stock but lowered the price target to $26 from $40. According to the equity research firm, a new chief executive […]
US states that surprised me after visiting 29 last year
After traveling across the US last year with my husband, a few states really surprised me, like North Dakota, Georgia, Kentucky, and Minnesota.
Unique X, Imagica Entertainment Media Services Partner to Transform Japanese Cinema Advertising Business
Digital cinema software provider Unique X and Imagica Entertainment Media Services (Imagica EMS), the market leader in Japan for post-production and media services, today announced the signing of a full long-term agreement, building upon their original Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This strategic partnership establishes a robust framework for an exclusive collaboration aimed at transforming and […]
CPI: Inflation rose to 3.3% amid Iran war in March, missing forecasts
The new CPI report showed headline inflation sped up in March to the highest rate since 2024. The Iran war is affecting gas prices.