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America’s Enterprising Spirit Is Booming After Decades-Long Slump
Hundreds of thousands of people are creating companies each year, ending a decades-long drought.
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Is Up 8.9% After Debt Refinancing And Note Conversion - Has The Bull Case Changed?
AMC Entertainment Holdings has advanced its balance-sheet overhaul by refinancing US$400 million of high-interest debt on better terms and converting about US$155.8 million of senior secured exchangeable notes into equity, while also preparing to report its second-quarter 2026 results on July 20. These moves reduce long-term obligations and loosen restrictive covenants, potentially giving AMC more room to support core theater operations and future refinancing efforts ahead of its upcoming...
Man charged with assaulting, injuring ECU Health nurse
64-year-old Reginald Jones was arrested on Thursday.
Hospital that delivers a third of D.C. babies to close a postpartum unit
MedStar Washington Hospital Center cites financial pressure and declining birth rates. But health advocates are alarmed.
Allston Gordon building: Alpha Management takes over; stores wary
After a longtime landlord sold one of Allston's most iconic commercial buildings, tenants say they are facing steep rent hikes, costly new fees, and the possibility of having to leave the place they've called home for decades.
Nominate Wisconsin business leaders for Marian awards by July 31
Marian University will host its 45th Business & Industry Awards on Oct. 21.
Doctors fear Medicaid changes will force them to decide who’s too sick to work
Physicians say new Medicaid rules starting Jan. 1 regarding employment will undermine their relationships with patients.
More Trust and Estate Disputes Are Becoming Business Litigation
As more families transfer business interests, commercial real estate, and other complex assets, trust and estate advisers may need to brush up on partnership law, corporate governance, contractual rights, tax planning, or real property law, FBFK Law’s Holly Gilani says.
We must return to decency and civility in politics
Enough swearing, enough insulting others.
Castlevania: Belmont’s Curse Might Make the Long Wait for a New 2D Castlevania Worth It
After playing the first three hours of Castlevania: Belmont's Curse, Dead Cells developer Evil Empire's take on the legendary series seems to be poised to live up to extraordinarily high standards set by its predecessors.
Ann Widdecombe’s death should make Britain ask itself: what sort of political culture do we want?
Dehumanising politicians is the first step towards justifying their elimination. It matters more than ever to keep putting the person back into the picture, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff
Timberwolves Get New LeBron James Decision Update After Insider Report
LeBron James hinted his decision is nearing as ESPN insider Shams Charania shared a fresh update for the Timberwolves. The post Timberwolves Get New LeBron James Decision Update After Insider Report appeared first on HEAVY.
Trump’s devoted base is really shrinking now
Few factors have loomed over American politics for the past decade like President Donald Trump’s sway over his base.
Sister Cities Celebrated 40 years at the Duluth Entertainment Convention Center
Welll...The smokey air didn't stop a global celebration today.The decc was filled with culture... Food... And community tonight...As "Sister cities" hosted its first-ever dock and dine event.The nonprofit also celebrated
Adam Silver calls Caitlin Clark a 'political football' as the WNBA keeps dodging reality
Adam Silver called the Caitlin Clark debate "political ping-pong" but declined to directly address reports he intervened in Alyssa Thomas' suspension.
Cornelius fountain company says water restrictions are bad for business
Due to mandatory water restrictions, Charlotte Water says “the operation of decorative fountains, including recirculating fountains, is prohibited.
Donovan Mitchell recruits LeBron James to Cleveland Cavaliers
James is still deciding where he plans to continue his career.
Sports without politics is a fantasy and the World Cup proves it
From ancient Greece to Nazi Germany, sport and politics have long been intertwined. Nevertheless, we still imagine that international sport can be kept above the fray and serve as a neutral arena where nations compete on merit alone. In this article, diplomacy scholar Geoffrey Allen Pigman argues the 2026 FIFA World Cup shows this is a dangerous illusion. When international sport is left entirely to revenue-maximizing private bodies like FIFA, it doesn't escape politics, but rather surrenders to its worst expressions. With the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics fast approaching, the IOC must decide whether to learn that lesson or repeat the same mistakes. The largest and most lucrative FIFA World Cup ever draws toward its climactic conclusion amidst a swirl of controversy. Team members, staff, fans, and spectators have been denied their right to enter the United States to participate, and US President Donald Trump intervened with FIFA boss Gianni Infantino to overturn a referee’s call that Trump believed disadvantaged the US national team. It is a moment to step back and reflect on what the purposes of international sport mega-events like the World Cup, and international sport more broadly, are, and what they should be. Does international sport serve public purposes? Is there a public interest? Or is it primarily a private endeavor organized by commercial enterprises to entertain the global public (and generate profit in the process), which is occasionally used by governments and leaders for raisons d’etat? Central to the idea of sport is the principle of fair play, which in the international context demands that games be free from political interference. However, it is impossible to separate sport from politics, all claims to the contrary notwithstanding. The most positive political use of international sport through the millennia has been to facilitate diplomacy. The use of international sport for diplomatic objectives has existed since at least the time of the ancient Olympic Games, around which was instituted the custom of the Ekecheiria, or Olympic Truce, between participating states to facilitate fair competition and diplomatic achievements by ensuring that participants could travel safely to the Olympiad. In his seminal work On Diplomacy (1987), diplomacy scholar James Der Derian characterized the objectives of diplomacy as overcoming alienation and mediating estrangement between governments and between peoples. One increasingly important diplomatic tool in the technology-infused media environment over the past century has been public diplomacy, under which governments and non-state diplomatic actors (e.g. transnational corporations) communicate to global publics about their international policy objectives and to shape their global brand image. Political scientist Michał Kobierecki, in his important book Sports Diplomacy (2020), views sports diplomacy as falling broadly within the ambit of public diplomacy, as international sport intimately involves the participation of global publics as spectators and consumers of global media. Diplomacy scholar Stuart Murray and this author, in a 2013 article, distinguish between international sport used for diplomatic purposes and international sport-as-diplomacy, which encompasses the range of diplomacy that occurs as teams and competitors, spectators and fans, and government officials all converge for international sporting events like the Olympic Games and FIFA World Cup. Diplomacy scholar H.E. Chehabi, in a 2001 article on US-Iran sports diplomacy, describes the interaction between spectators and fans at international sporting events as “people-to-people diplomacy,” in which relationships develop independently of governments and their objectives. Diplomacy by the aforementioned definitions is often unsuccessful. Moreover, all too often the tools of diplomacy may be employed by governments and other actors to thwart or oppose the objectives of diplomacy as characterized by Der Derian. Governments routinely use the tools of public diplomacy to disseminate propaganda, spreading misinformation in the attempt to deceive global publics about their objectives and to create misleading impressions about their brand identity. Within sports diplomacy, the term “sportswashing” has been coined recently to describe how governments invest in and promote international sport to create positive global public impressions of their nations and, in doing so, to distract the global public from their deficient records in areas such as human rights and democratic governance. Murray, in his 2018 book Sports Diplomacy: Origins, Theory and Practice, introduces the concept of sports anti-diplomacy, wherein governments intentionally use international sport to advance aggressive and nationalistic objectives. Obvious historical examples include Hitler’s use of the 1936 Berlin Olympics to glorify his Third Reich and the 1969 El Salvador-Honduras football “war.” SUGGESTED READING The beautiful game made ugly By Emily Ryall FIFA argues that it is and seeks to be apolitical in its stewardship of international Association Football (soccer). FIFA policies governing bids to host the World Cup require uninhibited and non-discriminatory access for players, team staff, and spectators of all participating countries to host nations and venues. It became clear soon after Trump returned to power in the United States in January 2025 that Trump’s political intentions and objectives to limit non-US citizens from living and working in the United States and, in numerous cases, even visiting the country, would collide with FIFA’s host nation policies. Beginning soon after the start of the second Trump administration, US federal authorities imposed restrictions on entry to the United States of citizens of between 20 and 40 countries for any purpose, with only limited exceptions. Federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) began arresting non-US citizens in the United States, including persons with and without legal status, holding them in jails, concentration camps, and other detention facilities until they were deported to their home or third countries, where they faced substantive risks to their personal safety. FIFA boss Gianni Infantino, in an effort to ensure the most successful and lucrative World Cup in history, engaged diplomatically with President Trump in an attempt to facilitate entry to the US for World Cup participants. Infantino did all in his power to ingratiate himself with Trump, to the extent of creating a FIFA “Peace Prize,” which he awarded to Trump in December 2025 at a ceremony in the then Trump-controlled John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, DC, on the occasion of the World Cup draw. The prize was an ersatz consolation for someone who aspired in vain to win the rather more prestigious and well-known Nobel Peace Prize. And in the run-up to the World Cup, conditions became worse. In February 2026, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a war of aggression against Iran, illegal under international law, under the false pretence that Iran’s government was preparing to attack the United States and Israel. During the US aerial bombardment of Iran, US planes bombed Azadi Stadium, the facility where Iran’s national football team trained. As the 2026 FIFA World Cup began, it was clear that Infantino’s efforts had been for naught: the Trump administration would not adhere to FIFA policies governing access to World Cup host nations. World Cup referee Omar Artan, a citizen of Somalia, was denied a US visa to enter the United States to participate in the World Cup. Trump’s government only granted US visas to Iran’s football team ten days before they were scheduled to arrive for the tournament. Numerous members of the support staff for Iran’s team were denied US visas. Iran’s team, which had been scheduled to train in Arizona, was directed to shift its training site to Tijuana, Mexico, notwithstanding that all three of their group stage matches took place at US venues. The US Department of Homeland Security only permitted the Iranian team to enter the US on the day before each scheduled match and then to return to Mexico immediately after playing. Members of Iraq’s and Switzerland’s football teams were delayed for hours by US officials at the US border, and an Iraqi team photographer was refused entry. Spectators and fans from Haïti and Iran were denied entry to the United States altogether. A large number of fans from a range of countries had their applications for US visas rejected. There were multiple off-ramps through which participants could have avoided the negative consequences of Trump’s decisions for the 2026 World Cup. Once it was clear that the Trump government intended to violate the established expectations for World Cup hosts, FIFA could have shifted the matches scheduled to take place in the United States to Mexico and Canada. The three nations were already designated as co-hosts, and host cities and venues had been selected. Once it was clear that FIFA, governed by FIFA boss Gianni Infantino’s dependent and dysfunctional relationship with Trump, would never consider this option on its own, it fell to the national football federations to act. The national federations, particularly some combination of federations of the leading contenders (France, Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Morocco, England, Germany, etc.), could have refused to participate under the US-imposed conditions or, at the least, demanded an ironclad agreement with the Trump government that FIFA policies on access would be respected. ___ International sport is inextricably entangled with diplomacy of different sorts, for good or ill, it cannot be considered to be in the purely private realm and left to revenue-maximizing private actors. ___ Why did neither FIFA nor the national football federations act to protect the interests of players, team staff, referees, fans, and spectators? In essence, the relentless engines of capitalism prevailed over norm observance, ethics, and fair play. The revenue interests of FIFA, sponsors, global media, and host cities won out. FIFA’s managers viewed hosting another World Cup principally in the United States as a veritable pot of gold for FIFA and its collaborators. FIFA has estimated its own revenue over the 2023-26 budget cycle, which includes the 2026 World Cup, at $13 billion, revised up from an initial projection of $11 billion, and 72% higher than the previous revenue cycle. Of that total, FIFA is estimated to have generated $8.9 billion from the Cup itself in revenue from TV rights ($3.92 billion), sponsorships ($2.69 billion), ticket sales ($3.1 billion), licensing rights, and other sources. A joint study by FIFA and the World Trade Organization estimates that the World Cup will contribute over $40 billion to global GDP, including nearly $14 billion in direct visitor spending in the three host countries (but principally in the United States, which hosted the lion’s share of the matches). The FIFA World Cup is now reportedly “the single most lucrative recurring commercial property in global sport.” And yet, notwithstanding the Trump government’s uses of the World Cup for sports anti-diplomacy, and the climate of anxiety that this created for participants and spectators, diplomacy that did not depend upon governments was able to thrive at the World Cup. Examples of successful people-to-people diplomacy were legion, as citizens of towns and cities across the States, as well as in Mexico and Canada, welcomed team members, their families and supporters, to training sites across North America. Fans of different teams joined together in person in stadiums for matches, at watch parties and bars, and at welcome events sponsored by host cities. The joy and camaraderie shared between the citizenry of Boston and Scotland’s “Tartan Army” of fans is but one example of how the “Beautiful Game” brings people together. Friendships forged across continents are likely to endure well beyond the Cup final. Even those achievements cannot be seen as unalloyed, however. As South African football fan Byron Pillay commented to Al Jazeera, “Football is called the Beautiful Game for a reason, for its ability to unite people. But it’s hard to believe in that magic with the politics and war rhetoric off the field of play, especially when one of the tournament hosts is central to that.” Ultimately, the experience of the 2026 FIFA World Cup illustrates that, as international sport is inextricably entangled with diplomacy of different sorts, for good or ill, it cannot be considered to be in the purely private realm and left to revenue-maximizing private actors. As long as there is the possibility of diplomatic progress in mediating estrangement between governments or between peoples, there is a broad and overarching public interest in international sport. Likewise, as it would be difficult to put on an international sport mega-event without international sporting organizations like FIFA and the International Olympic Committee (IOC), global media firms, and companies purchasing sponsorships, public and private interests in international sport must coexist, most likely somewhere on a shifting spectrum between partnership and rivalry or cross purposes. As the World Cup wraps up, the IOC needs to consider its lessons before the scheduled 2028 Los Angeles Olympics if they want to avoid a media-hyped Trump version of the 1936 Berlin Olympiad. The IOC and the National Olympic Committees need to set conditions on and make demands of Trump’s government with clearly articulated consequences for non-compliance, up to and including cancellation of the Games. Time is running out for the IOC, as unlike with the FIFA World Cup, there is no at-the-ready alternate venue for Los Angeles.
Fort Worth cocktail bar announces closure after decade of business
The Basement Lounge announced its closure on social media after over a decade of business in Fort Worth.
Adam Silver, Pat Riley among the many people waiting for LeBron James' free agent decision
As Climate Extremes Collide, Attribution Science Evolves
A National Academy of Sciences report on extreme climate event attribution confronts political climate denialism with scientific evidence.
SF overdose deaths decline as public health officials expand treatment, drug monitoring
Overdose deaths in San Francisco have declined compared to last year, a trend local public health officials say reflects both national patterns and the city's ongoing efforts to expand treatment and other interventions.
Trump's health nominees are in flux with vote pending - Live Updates
Four Democrats on the Health Committee told POLITICO they're undecided on whether to confirm Erica Schwartz to lead the CDC.
‘It’s not really about sports’: One parent on ending lawsuit against NH’s trans student athlete ban
Sara Tirrell, the mother of one of the teenagers who dropped her legal challenge against the state, spoke with NHPR about the decision and what the last two years have been like for her family.
Schumer dodges questions after bombshell report alleges Dem senator had relationships with House staffers
Chuck Schumer declined to address allegations that Sen. Ruben Gallego had relationships with Democratic House staffers, saying he was focused on Trump.
How Lindsey Graham’s ability to read the moment propelled him to political relevance for 3 decades
Commentary from two political science professors on how Lindsey Graham's instinctive political skills defined his career.
Community, business leaders back Hochul's pause on hyperscale data centers
Gov. Kathy Hochul held a roundtable Thursday morning, defending her decision to put a moratorium on new hyperscale data centers.
Trump officials want to make testosterone drugs easier to prescribe. Is that a good idea?
Officials under President Donald Trump want to make it easier for men to get a prescription for testosterone, the latest shift in a decades-long debate over the benefits and risks of replacing the hormone that affects sex drive, mood and other health factors.
Europe tells Google it must open Android phones to rivals’ AI bots
Officials said the decision was aimed at promoting competition.
Larry Rhoden: Rancher, welder and three-decade politician makes his case to earn SD's trust
South Dakota's governor reflects on his ranching roots and three decades in politics ahead of the Republican runoff.
Apple Readies OLED iPad Mini, With Low-End and Air Updates Coming in 2027
Apple Inc. is preparing to introduce its biggest overhaul to the iPad mini in half a decade, giving new life to a product that’s popular with travelers and technology enthusiasts.
Bryce Link appointed as Buffalo’s new finance commissioner
Link has spent nearly the past two decades with the Buffalo Fiscal Stability Board.
Sheikh Hasina’s return bid threatens to upend Bangladeshi politics
The ousted leader, who has been sentenced to death, plans a December homecoming in a high-stakes bid to resurrect her banned party.
Winter Sports Club responds to Nordic combined’s removal from Olympics
In a gut-punch to the Steamboat Springs Nordic combined community, the sport has been removed from the Alpes 2030 Winter Olympic games in France. Nordic combined has long been a bread-and-butter sport for the Steamboat...
Inside RFK Jr.’s push to dismantle decades of U.S. vaccine policy
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has brought a series of once-unthinkable public-health proposals to the highest levels of the Trump administration.
COMPUTER COPS: Inside the big business of selling AI to the police
From data gathering to decision making, there’s a gold mine in police funding.
Physician lawmakers introduce bipartisan fix for radiologist Medicare pay woes
Members of the Democratic and GOP Doctors Caucuses are proposing the Patients First Act, bolstering incentives to save independent practices and “reversing decades of consolidation.”
Bryson DeChambeau aims to salvage major season at The Open as LIV Golf contract nears expiration
DeChambeau's contract year has been a disaster, but he has one last chance to get something out of the four major championships
Colorado’s primary proved in this political climate money doesn’t buy electoral happiness
To catch you up, campaign committees from this 2026 election cycle already collected and shoveled out a lot of cash: $102.64 million. That’s contributions in all forms — dollars, in kind, loans, etc. — from December 2024 to now. Total expenditures just for advertising amount to $32.94 million. More to come for the general election. […]
Asian shares mostly decline with South Korea’s Kospi down 6.6%, while oil prices slip
Asian shares are mostly lower and oil prices have fallen despite back-and-forth strikes between the U.S. and Iran.
From Roker Park to Europe
What sparked a lifelong love affair with Sunderland? One rainy afternoon at Roker Park in 1983 led to four decades of unforgettable highs, lows and family memories.
Every Hit Counts: The new science behind football and dementia
After decades of debate fueled by courtroom battles, documentaries, and heartbreaking personal stories, the scientific picture linking repetitive head impacts to neurodegenerative disease is becoming sharper. A landmark study of nearly 20,000 NFL players replaces speculation with one of the strongest population-level analyses yet of how football, career length, and playing position influence the long-term risk of brain disease.
Warriors Tabbed a LeBron James ‘Dark Horse’ Amid Increased Optimism
The Golden State Warriors are chasing star free agent LeBron James, but their status is up for debate as he nears a decision. The post Warriors Tabbed a LeBron James ‘Dark Horse’ Amid Increased Optimism appeared first on HEAVY.
Chico City Council moves forward with proposed entertainment zones ordinance
Seeking to revitalize local businesses, the Chico City Council voted unanimously to approve the first reading of a proposed ordinance establishing two entertain
Brewers Take Worthy Gamble In Trade With Astros
The Milwaukee Brewers took a worthy gamble in acquiring two pitchers ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline on August 3. Milwaukee is atop the NL Central and has one of the top teams in the MLB, but the Brewers could upgrade their pitching staff. So, ahead of the MLB returning on Thursday, the Brewers ...
Texas Rangers hit another bump navigating imperfect TV climate
The Texas Rangers dropped Victory+ as their direct-to-consumer distributor, an unpopular decision that left viewers wondering why it happened in-season and what the heck BZZR is. The Texas Rangers knew...
Debate over horse-drawn carriages in NYC goes back decades
An outright ban was first proposed by Council Member Tony Avella in 2007.
Fanatics Fest 2026 daily guide: Will LeBron James announce his free-agent decision during a live podcast taping?
Trump says Iran released American woman held since 2024 in 'gesture of goodwill'
President Donald Trump said Iran released an American woman who he said had been wrongfully detained since December 2024. The woman was later identified as Dena Karari.
Google and Epic Abandon Settlement, Clearing the Way for Rival Android App Stores
Google and Epic Games this week withdrew their joint settlement agreement after it became clear the court was unlikely to allow it. With the settlement out, Google is bound by a permanent injunction issued in October 2024 requiring it to allow alternative app stores on Android devices. In a court filing [PDF], Google said that it plans to begin supporting alternative app stores on July 22. In a statement to The Verge, Google said it decided to withdraw the motion to avoid a prolonged legal fight.
Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution—Pitch Black Is Now Available in Pokémon TCG Live
The Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution—Pitch Black debut includes new Battle Pass decks and more.
Scientists finally solved how a common gut bacterium triggers colon cancer
Researchers solved a long-standing mystery behind how a bacterial toxin associated with colorectal cancer damages the colon. The toxin first binds to a receptor called claudin-4, giving it access to attack the cells' protective barrier. After identifying this weak point, the team designed a decoy protein that successfully blocked the toxin in mice. The discovery could pave the way for new therapies to prevent inflammation and colon tumors.
Sen. John Cornyn undecided on President Trump’s pick for U.S. Attorney General
Cornyn is a key vote that could decide if Todd Blanche’s nomination moves forward to the full Senate.
Dave & Buster’s moves further into nightlife with nationwide rave series
Dave & Buster’s is teaming with Brownies & Lemonade on a nationwide rave series, bringing surprise DJs and multi-genre dance music lineups to seven U.S. cities through December.
Valve says iFixit will keep selling Steam Deck batteries after all
The Steam Deck LCD will keep on going.
The science of Alaska’s bees: What researchers are learning
For decades, scientists knew surprisingly little about Alaska’s native bees. Now, Alaskans working together to understand the bees that pollinate the North.
Sunscreen gets an upgrade | Investors Lab
There are hundreds of brands of sunscreen available in the United States, but not one of them contains an ingredient we all need. Bemotrizinol, a highly effective, broad-spectrum chemical ultraviolet ray blocker, has been available in Europe for decades but absent from U.S. shelves. The regulatory bottleneck was driven by a 2011 U.S. Food and Drug Administration policy classifying sunscreens as drugs. While the classification remains, consumers and innovators can welcome the news that the FDA has officially approved bemotrizinol, effective August 9, 2026. Science News's Meghan Rosen provides the coverage.
CMS proposes Medicare payment cuts in 2027—physician groups pledge to bring about change
Cardiologists received a nice bump in pay in 2026 thanks to a one-time 2.5% conversion factor increase. That expires at the end of the year, however, and physicians will see their payments decrease as a result.
The States Try to Topple WarnerMount…Thus Begins the Local Antitrust Era
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Well, it looks like it’s time for another strategy column. Can I finally avoid writing about M&A? No, it seems I cannot. Admittedly, I’m a week early with this column, since I usually put it out every other week. But this news couldn’t wait. This will make three “Most Important Stories” in a row with a merger or acquisition as its centerpiece. First, Roku-Fox (an acquisition), then Comcast-NBCUniversal (a divestment!), and now the State AGs and the WGA’s lawsuits against Paramount’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery (antitrust). M&A is usually the “most important” topic any given week, simply because a giant company merging or breaking up (or preventing those outcomes) can have the biggest impact on the streaming board. If you think about these companies as players in a game, changing the number of players is one of the biggest changes you can make. I shouldn’t really complain, either, since this lawsuit is very good news for customers and suppliers (econ speak for talent, workers and indie studios in Hollywood). So let me answer some questions about this potential trial, along with (shudder) making some heavily caveated predictions. I’ll also look at whether Hollywood must consolidate, whether or not the states can win, trouble at X-Box, Netflix’s YouTube binge, and more. Plus, I have five images that visualize this merger and the harm, including three brand new data looks you’ve never seen before. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - Can The States and the WGA Stop Hollywood’s Consolidation (Crisis)? If every other newsletter and news outlet is writing about the same story, I try to avoid writing about it as well, but I can’t ignore a story this consequential. The story of the last year was the fate of Warner Bros. Discovery, and this development potentially extends that saga into 2027. As I tried to figure out my angle, I realized, like my last column, I’m again faced with a series of questions. These questions, though, are much more forward-looking. Will the states win? Will the WGA win? If so, what happens to Warner Bros. Discovery? Either way, will this chill the market for future mergers? So you know what that means: predictions. About the future, no less, the hardest thing to predict.1 Just remember: nothing here comes with a guarantee. And the more confident someone is in their predictions, the less you should trust them. This situation is incredibly fluid, nuanced, uncertain and tenuous. So let’s try to explain what may happen. Question: Why File this Lawsuit? I’ll admit, a few months back, I was fairly pessimistic about the fate of this lawsuit. Rumors had started bubbling up that the state Attorneys General (in particular California) wanted to settle with either some minor divestments (usually CNN) or behavioral remedies. And that tracked for me: the states usually settle lawsuits, like the recent John Deere right-to-repair suit. Yet, they plan to fight this. (As they did the LiveNation-Ticketmaster monopolization trial and the Nexstar-Tegna merger.) Honestly, that also makes a ton of sense. Frankly, this move is just good politics for these State AGs. Most are still running for higher and higher office in blue states—some folks have emphasized that only Democratic AGs joined this suit, but given the Ellison/Trump ties, and fears of retribution, that tracks—and a high profile case like this will help them move up the electoral ladder, especially since Paramount and its leadership (the Ellisons, father and heir) have sided with the other side of the political aisle. That makes them unsympathetic to Democratic voters and Hollywood workers in particular. Why did this lawsuit happen? In addition to the very real concerns about industry consolidation, this is why. That said, I don’t think we would have seen this lawsuit for Netflix and Warner Bros., simply because they’re more sympathetic and aligned with Democrats. But those consolidation concerns are real. The “town”—meaning Hollywood and such—really is seeing the damage of mergers on this industry. That’s why the WGA also filed its own lawsuit in defense of workers as well. (Wildcard: What about Europe? Will they try to stop the deal, too? There have been some rumors out of the UK they may try to fight the deal, and UK enforcers just stopped a Getty Images-Shutterstock tie up, so there is precedence. This argument could go either way, though. On one hand, the EU doesn’t need to step in, cause they states are handling it. On the other hand, this could make the EU’s case easier. Just imagine if both sides coordinated. I’ll simply say, “We’ll see!”) Question: Will The State AGs or the WGA Win? Can the state AGs play David to Paramount-Skydance’s Goliath here? That’s really the whole thing, isn’t it? If you know this result, you could make a lot of money. When things are uncertain, it’s tempting to shrug and say, “Eh” meaning it’s a 50/50 proposition. I wouldn’t, though. When in doubt, you should expect that the merging parties succeed. AT&T did successfully buy Warner Bros., after all, and Disney bought Fox without any challenges. Many judges are extremely sympathetic to mergers, and I’d bet the state AGs get a judge who will allow the merger. (Even Obama-appointed judges often allow mergers.) As I understand it, we’ll see two main attacks. First, theatrical films. The AGs are arguing that, when it comes to share of box office and the number of both “wide releases” and blockbuster (or “tentpole”) films, the merging parties will have over 27% market share. Now, the Supreme Court once ruled from on high that any merger that exceeds 30% is presumptively illegal, but that’s guidance, not an ironclad bar. Still, the states will have to argue that this is close to having too much power, and with that power, this will likely further worsen the theater/studio splits in particular. Indeed, as Matthew Stoller pointed out, “just five studios are responsible for 95% of all blockbusters; if this merger goes through, then Paramount and Disney will control 60% of that.” So yes, movie studios will be very concentrated after this merger. Want me to visualize some of that? Well, here’s the share of films that grossed over $200 million at the domestic box office since 2022. (Note: this isn’t all films released in over 3,000 screens, but it is a good look at market power.) First, here are the 43 films by studio: Notice all the blue (Disney), orange (Universal), and purple (Warner Bros)? Yeah, those studios are powerful, and this combines Paramount with one of them. Here’s the look by studio and share of the films that grossed over $200 million: Now, if you look at that and also think, “Huh, should we break up Disney?” I’m with you. I’ve seen some folks poo-poo this idea that this is a real category, but it is! For an upcoming article, I’ve been pulling data on the share of top 100 films at the box office as a share of total box office, and it’s massive. Here’s the chart: (This analysis looks at The-Number’s top 100 films and total domestic box office each year.) To be clear, tentpoles make up 80.7% of the box office each year, so I do think it’s a genuine market. (To be clear, films grossing over $50 million make up 80% of the domestic box office, and films grossing over $100 million make up 64.1%.) I mean, the top 100 films at the box office make up 95% of each year’s grosses. Worse, the combined studios will likely cut output to flex that market power. Everyone can just look at what happened to Disney and Fox to see the precedent. (With fewer films, the remaining theaters have to give more for those few films that remain.) Here’s an image I’ve used a lot, the share of wide-release films from Disney and Fox over time: The AGs will also argue that this consolidation will also impact the cable industry. In this case, the consolidation is actually worse, but that environment is…complicated. Paramount will argue that the cable industry is shrinking. That said, predictions that cable will “go to zero” also don’t look very well supported by the data, as the declines are shrinking, meaning “cable” or “vMVPDs” will likely stabilize at some point. Can the state Attorneys General win on those two main arguments? I honestly don’t know. Again, I’d bet no, since history in general supports that, but it depends on the judge/jury and how they interpret the arguments. Notably, Paramount won’t face accusations about monopoly power in other areas, like streaming, news, sports rights, or vertical integration. I tend to disagree with leaving out sports rights, but I also see the appeal for a simpler case. The states also aren’t really pushing novel theories about labor harm either, which should help. (By the way, Sean McNulty at The Ankler wrote a great run through of potential options, and Capitol Forum also wrote a great paper on theatrical consolidation. Both these pieces predated the lawsuit. Matthew Stoller is also out with his analysis of the pros and cons of the case too.) In some ways, the WGA’s case is even stronger. Quoting Sean McNulty’s summary: “The WGA is citing WARNAMOUNT as crossing a 30% market share in multiple sectors, a number that the Supreme Court has precedent for deeming “presumptively anticompetitive” in a market. According to the WGA numbers, WARNAMOUNT would have represented: - 35% of film writing jobs between 2021 and 2024 - 36% of TV writing projects between 2022 and 2025 - 38% of overall deals between 2021 and 2024” Notably, antitrust enforcers did win recently in the Penguin-Simon & Schuster merger by focusing on labor impact, so don’t count this thinking out. (Wildcard: Will the states try to get a jury trial? Most likely no, they’ll let a judge handle it. If I’m them, though, I’d try to put this in front of a jury. Juries tend to understand monopoly power in a more realistic way than judges faced with legions of economists.) Question: What if They Win? What if They Lose?
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