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It’s Thursday, September 17. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Douglas Murray asks, why do we allow terrorists to die of old age? The American nonprofits backing Hamas. A conversation with Dara Horn and Coleman Hughes. And much more. But first: inside the unlikely coalition warning that AI may kill us all. Last week, an AI researcher named Jacob Coxon made headlines around the world after saying that he had resigned from Anthropic because he believes AI might cause human extinction—and his co-workers do, too. Unlike the rest of us, potentially, the story just won’t die. The Pro-Human Assembly, a conference held Tuesday in Washington, D.C., about the existential dangers of artificial intelligence, couldn’t have come at a better time—or with a more eclectic coalition. The Archbishop of San Francisco was there. So was Steve Bannon, screaming about the Chinese. Bernie Sanders did a quasi-dramatic reading of messages posted to an online forum by rogue AI agents. Ashley Judd paraphrased a graphic Andrea Dworkin quote for reasons that remain a mystery to me still. It was odd. People in the AI industry have talked openly about the possibility of this technology causing human extinction for years, but it hits differently in the wake of the Hugging Face incident. If you don’t know what that is, all the more reason to read my dispatch today. As the doomers see it, the best-case scenario is a future in which humans are basically kept as pets: well cared for, but with zero autonomy. The worst-case scenario, obviously, is the everyone dies thing. What should be done? I heard lots of ideas but no easy answers. There are currently zero federal regulations on AI, which is sort of strange even to think about. After all, we regulate microwaves, and the people running the microwave industry have never once refused to rule out the possibility that their products will end all human life on Earth. What I saw in D.C. left me even more convinced that you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who believes nothing should be done. You know, except for President Trump. — River Page River Page • Tech and Business [ The AI Doomers Have a Plan to Save Us. I Went to Find Out What It Is. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-ai-doomers-have-plan-save-bernie-sanders-bannon) Read story How Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr—and How to Better Fight Antisemitism On Monday, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and a group of other NFL owners banned Macklemore from performing at their stadiums after the rapper delivered a “Free Palestine” speech while opening for Ed Sheeran. Kraft cited the rapper’s “broader history of antisemitic rhetoric and imagery.” Once multiple venues refused to host shows with Macklemore on the lineup, the tour’s promoter officially dropped him. Today, Josh Kaplan says that the move was counterproductive, arguing that though well-intentioned, Kraft’s decision turned an irrelevant footnote into a martyr. “You cannot cancel people into liking you,” Josh writes. Read his column on what a better response to Macklemore would have looked like. Read [ Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr ](https://www.thefp.com/p/robert-kraft-made-macklemore-martyr-antisemitism-palestine) This raises the question: What actually works against antisemitism? On the latest episode of Conversations with Coleman, recorded in front of a live audience in New York, Dara Horn joins Coleman Hughes to talk about her new book The Final Solution to the Jewish Question. She argues that antisemitism is a script that has repeated itself across countries and ideologies, and that most people don’t understand that well enough to fight it. Don’t miss their conversation. Watch [ The Lie at the Center of Antisemitism, with Dara Horn ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-lie-at-the-center-of-antisemitism-coleman-hughes-dana-horn) Listen now Douglas Murray • U.S. Politics [ Douglas Murray: The 9/11 Failure That Still Haunts America ](https://www.thefp.com/p/douglas-murray-911-failure-justice-terrorist-guantanamo-bay) Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks, the men who planned them have still not faced trial. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and most of the accused have been locked up in Guantanamo Bay since 2002. Judges have retired, and plea deals have collapsed. Today, Douglas Murray examines how this happened and argues that a justice system that allows terrorists to die of old age in an interminable pretrial process is one that has failed. Read his latest column on what that failure says about our unpreparedness for the era we are now living in. Read story The Editors • U.S. Politics [ When Nonprofits Support Terrorists ](https://www.thefp.com/p/when-nonprofits-support-terrorists) A newly declassified CIA brief from 1998 found that Osama bin Laden used nonprofit shell organizations—including U.S.-based Islamic groups—to fund his terror plots. Today, a similar story is unfolding as multiple organizations on American soil present themselves as nonprofits, taking advantage of tax-exempt status while seeking to advance the ideological mission of terrorist groups like Hamas. Read our editorial on the latest evidence of this dangerous trend—and why there’s no excuse for making the same mistake the CIA revealed 28 years ago. Read story Simon Sebag Montefiore and Bari Weiss Live in New York For decades, the Middle East has shaped American foreign policy and loomed large in the public consciousness. Few understand its influence on our politics better than Simon Sebag Montefiore, who argues that America’s quagmires in the Middle East stem from a deep misunderstanding of the region—on both the left and the right. Join him October 1 as he sits down with Bari Weiss live in New York City to kick off his U.S. book tour for The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East. Get Tickets Now MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Sydney Sweeney’s Naked Truth ](https://www.thefp.com/p/sydney-sweeneys-naked-truth-caitlin-flanagan) Caitlin Flanagan Read story [ I Thought Ukraine Was Losing. Then I Was Almost Hit by a Russian Drone. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/elliot-ackerman-ukraine-drone-gas-station-train) Elliot Ackerman Read story [ The Dangerous Ideology Behind the AI Warnings ](https://www.thefp.com/p/dangerous-ideology-effective-altruism-artificial-intelligence) Shyam Sankar Read story [ Amanda Knox: Patrick Clancy Can’t Win ](https://www.thefp.com/p/amanda-knox-patrick-clancy-grief-internet-crime) Amanda Knox Read story THE NEWS The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point, its first hike since 2023, signaling that another increase could follow as the central bank tries to bring inflation under control. President Donald Trump fired back by demanding that rates be cut sharply, though he stopped short of criticizing Fed Chair Kevin Warsh by name. The Houthis fired drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, including a major oil port on the Red Sea, and Saudi jets struck back with air strikes across Yemen in an escalating front of the Middle East war. (For more on the Houthis, read Zineb Riboua’s column from earlier this week.) A sweeping Russia and Iran sanctions bill passed the House in a 262–159 vote and is now heading to Trump for his signature. Named after the late senator Lindsey Graham, the legislation would hit countries that purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas with tariffs of up to 100 percent, and is aimed at cutting off revenue that funds Russia’s war in Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the European Union’s first-ever “associate member,” drawing a standing ovation from European lawmakers. The proposal, framed as a response to a world grown more hostile, faces an uncertain path as EU member states would have to approve it, and one diplomat said that “nobody really knows what it means.” The House voted unanimously to send billionaire Leon Black a criminal contempt referral after he defied a congressional subpoena to testify and hand over documents related to his connections to Jeffrey Epstein. Black chose to fight the subpoena in court rather than comply. Charlie Kirk’s family filed a wrongful death notice Wednesday against Utah Valley University, alleging that a series of security failures left him exposed to a rooftop sniper. The notice is a required legal step before the family can sue. Merriam-Webster added 1,400 words and definitions to its dictionary, including looksmaxxing, vibe coding, and cuffing season. The publisher said the new entries offer “a window into the world today.” The Free Press earns a commission from any purchases made through all book links in this article.
Testosterone scripts for women rise, along with denials and delays
Women increasingly turning to testosterone therapy to manage menopause symptoms are running into unexpected prescription delays and denials at pharmacies, according to interviews with more than half a dozen doctors, nurses and patients.
Klopp reveals reason behind Deniz Undav's Germany omission
VfB Stuttgart forward Deniz Undav was one of the bright spots of a disappointing World Cup for Germany, which ended with elimination against Paraguay in the round of 32.However, the 30-year-old didn't...
How Ohio’s business climate became a flashpoint in the governor’s race
Experts say Ohio's business climate—and Vivek Ramaswamy's tax proposals—are far more complicated than thought.
The Athletic reveals Texas A&M's exorbitant 2026 roster spending
According to The Athletic's recent article, Texas A&M and seven other program's spend at least $40 million on their 2026 rosters.
Pediatricians raise the alarm on the effect of Trump's immigration crackdown on kids
The Trump administration has been pursuing a quiet immigration crackdown strategy: limiting access to health care and public services. The American Academy of Pediatrics is sounding the alarm about the impact on children.
Big questions - and key logistical details - loom ahead of China-U.S. summit
Despite the lingering questions, China remains optimistic about the summit.
Whatley campaign event featured sex offender + Ruling allows weaker NC governor
A panel of the Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 against Stein.
Klopp reveals Kimmich's role in new-look Germany team
Having played as a right-back for Germany under Julian Nagelsmann, captain Joshua Kimmich will return to his familiar central midfield role under new head coach Jürgen Klopp.Klopp confirmed this on T...
Microsoft shares workaround for Windows domain login issues
Microsoft shared a temporary fix on Wednesday for a known issue that prevents Windows 11 users from logging in with valid domain credentials after installing the September 2026 security updates.
The Rise Of The Mompreneur Micro-Business: Monetizing Home-Grown Expertise
See how moms turn parenting and career skills into a mompreneur micro-business, with earning ranges and simple steps to start without quitting your job.
Apple Is Turning Up the Heat on Rivals With Its Updated Health App
Commentary: Apple’s AI-powered Health app updates might just make me leave my Whoop at home.
This new Android skin copies iOS 27 so perfectly, it might even fool Apple
HONOR has revealed Magic OS 11 based on Android 17, and while it brings new AI features, it also copies Liquid Glass down to a T.
Valakari reveals chats helped Taylor and Finlayson
St Johnstone manager Simo Valakari has revealed that Taylor Steven explored his options away from McDiarmid Park this summer before the 21-year-old winger earned a starting place for the last three matches. St Johnstone manager Simo Valakari has admitted that he felt the need to have a "strong conversation" with Daniel Finlayson after leaving the 25-year-old defender out his side for three games before his return against Celtic.
Today’s Papers – Poor Milan, Juventus chance for Woltemade
La Gazzetta dello SportRoma beat Inter, a richer transfer windowIn the last two years, since Gasperini and Chivu’s arrivals, the Giallorossi have invested €211m against €186m.There’s no MilanE...
3 Health Care Stocks Built For Higher Rates
When the Federal Reserve lifts rates and signals they may stay elevated for years, the easy-growth playbook breaks. Cash flows today matter more than promises tomorrow, and investors start to care a lot about balance sheet strength, pricing power and dependable dividends. This article walks through three large cap quality defensive stocks that screen well under those rules and explains how the latest Fed move could affect each one. The three stocks below are a sample of what this quality...
Chargers Tabbed Potential Suitor for $44 Million “Quality” Defender
The Los Angeles Chargers are named as a potential suitor for a defensive line after the Week 1 loss to the Cardinals. The post Chargers Tabbed Potential Suitor for $44 Million “Quality” Defender appeared first on HEAVY.
‘It’s heart-wrenching’: Portland sports bar owner devastated after business severely damaged by fire
A Portland sports bar owner says he’s devastated after his business caught fire early Tuesday morning. The smoke from that fire also damaged several other businesses nearby.
‘It’s heart-wrenching’: Portland sports bar owner devastated after business severely damaged by fire
A Portland sports bar owner says he’s devastated after his business caught fire early Tuesday morning. The smoke from that fire also damaged several other businesses nearby.
‘It’s heart-wrenching’: Portland sports bar owner devastated after business severely damaged by fire
A Portland sports bar owner says he’s devastated after his business caught fire. The smoke from that fire also damaged several other businesses nearby.
Round Up: Capcom Spotlight - TGS 2026 Showcase, Every Switch 2 Announcement And Update
Free Mega Man Pragmata outfits, swimsuit reveals & more
Virginia Department of Health officials, food quality professionals detail latest food regulations
PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY) — New food safety regulations that establish updated standards for handling food, sanitation and staff oversight, while adding another food allergen, took effect across Virgi…
Galo and Massa in sync
Galo needed a response. After going 2–0 down in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana quarterfinals, Atlético returned home facing a difficult but still reversible situation. And once again, the M...
New survey shows how many insured Americans still owe money on medical bills
Nearly half of insured adults with unpaid bills or medical debt owed $2,000 or more to hospitals, doctors or labs, Commonwealth Fund survey finds.
Wynne business rebounds three years after tornado
Wynne’s high school is not the only one recovering from the tornado three years ago. Local businesses are also coming back.
Arizona Cardinals add 2 DBs to practice squad
With Kitan Crawford on IR and Kalen King moving to the active roster, the Cardinals added 2 DBs to the practice squad.
Crews respond to structure fire at Ocala manufacturing business
Ocala Fire Rescue crews responded to a structure fire Wednesday at a manufacturing business, according to officials.
THN Girls Soccer wins first Golden Soccer Ball since 2023
TERRE HAUTE, Ind. (WTWO/WAWV) — Terre Haute North Girls Soccer defeated Terre Haute South, 5-0 on Wednesday night. Aubrey Scherle and Siah Chew each tallied two goals for the Patriots. Amaya Phillips scored as well in the victory.
Royals put together a nice solid win in Houston
Daniel Lynch is solid in a Kansas City win
Bats Cold as Astros fall to Royals 5-2.
So much for the winning streak, it’s been halted at one. Kansas City 5 Houston 2. It was another three hit night for Jeremy Pena. Unfortunately, there was little else. Over the course of two nights against the Royals, Pena has six of the Astros 12 total hits. Yikes. Aside from the […]
Huron takes care of business in 6-1 win over Clyde
The Tigers scored the first three goals of Wednesday's win over Clyde.
Access denied! Rivals celebrate Corinthians exit, Memphis in focus
Corinthians came up short in front of the Fiel.And helped their rivals PARTY thanks to the "contribution" of Memphis Depay.The latest Libertadores disappointment sparked all kinds of reactions on soci...
Trey McBride receives day off Wednesday
Arizona Cardinals TE Trey McBride sits out the opening practice ahead of Week 2
Boulder City warns of health risks after trapped rats released at local park
Officials stress that releasing rodents on public land spreads disease and violates state pest-control statutes.
Phillies End Nationals' Win Streak In Final Meeting In 2026
The Washington Nationals fell in the final meeting and saw their five game win streak denied on Wednesday night, along with another Triple A demotion
Minor League Recap: Ralphy Returns
Saints 3, Clippers 2 Guardians top prospect Ralphy Velazquez returned from injury today after dealing with lower body soreness since September 6th. Despite the loss he went 1-4 with an RBI ground rule double. Kody Huff went 1-2 with a double and two BBs. We also saw hits from Kyle Manzardo, Blake Perkins, Dayan Frias, […]
Allegheny County’s Board of Health weighs reshaped parental leave proposal
Allegheny County officials unveiled a scaled-back version of a paid parental leave bill that has generated fervent public discussion since its introduction in May. The revised proposal trims the parental leave period from 18 to 12 weeks and would apply to employers with 15 or more eligible full or part-time employees.
Las Vegas fall arts and entertainment: The season’s can't-miss concerts, festivals, theater, art shows and more
From Charli XCX at MGM Grand to "Oh Mary!" at the Smith Center to the Las Vegas Book Festival, the next few months will be packed with fun and culture.
ECU Health expands prenatal care with group visits
Health officials launched the “CenteringPregnancy” program at ECU Health Women’s Physicians in Greenville.
OpenAI discloses 6 new incidents of ‘concerning’ AI behavior
The artificial intelligence company also released a framework for reporting when its systems go wrong.
So Delicious dairy-free salted caramel frozen dessert pints recalled; state health officials alert public
A potential presence of foreign materials, such as small stones and other hard objects, in the cashew clusters triggered the recall; the product was sold at retailers such as Target and Whole Foods in Hawai‘i.
Columbus Crew clinch berth in US Open Cup final
By Dylan ButlerThe Columbus Crew have booked their spot in the 2026 US Open Cup final, defeating Orlando City, 2-1, in the semifinals at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field Wednesday night.The Crew, seeking their...
Drew Doughty named captain of the Kings, succeeding Anze Kopitar
Drew Doughty was named captain of the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday, inheriting the leadership position left vacant by Anze Kopitar's retirement. The 36-year-old Doughty is the franchise leader among defensemen in numerous categories, including goals, assists, points and games played and was a key piece in their Stanley Cup victories in 2012 and 2014. “Being named captain of an NHL team is something I’m truly honored by, and it’s something I take great pride in,” Doughty said in a statement released by the team.
Capcom reveals new Mega Man and Monster Hunter expansion details at TGS
At the Tokyo Game Show, fans had a chance to play demos of “Mega Man: Dual Override” and “Monster Hunter Wilds: Ascendance”
Texans Expecting Good News on Jadeveon Clowney Before Bengals Game
The Houston Texans are working through the week awaiting final word on Jadeveon Clowney before facing the Cincinnati Bengals. The post Texans Expecting Good News on Jadeveon Clowney Before Bengals Game appeared first on HEAVY.
Lakers Insider Reveals Marcus Smart's Reasoning to Leave the Lakers
Details on Marcus Smart's shocking exit from Los Angeles after stellar playoff performances
Buccaneers vs. Browns: Initial injury report for Week 2
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened preparations for their Week 2 matchup against the Cleveland Browns with a relatively light injury report Wednesday. Safety Miles Killebrew was limited as he continues to work through the concussion protocol, while cornerback Jacob Parrish was also limited with a back injury. The encouraging news for Tampa Bay came with […]
Maryland health officials warn of possible measles exposure at 3 Ocean City locations
The Maryland Department of Health is warning about possible measles exposure at three locations in Ocean City earlier this month.
Wednesday practice report for Bengals
Bengals DT B.J. Hill, DE Shemar Stewart listed on first report of week
GCEDC officials report agency’s impact upon housing, tax base, business growth
BATAVIA — The Medtech Landing apartment complex across from Genesee Community College is a “perfect example” of the Genesee County Economic Development Center’s effort in addressing the area’s market rate
🎥 Messi hits 100 goals for Inter Miami!
Lionel Messi steals the opener from Cruz Azul and puts Inter Miami ahead in the race for the Campeones Cup title.The Argentine striker broke the deadlock with a ferocious header that left Cruz Azul go...
Lollipop Chainsaw 2 Back2Back announced for PS5
Publishers Dragami Games and Nada Holdings, and developer JP Universe have announced Lollipop Chainsaw 2 Back2Back for PlayStation 5. It will launch in 2027. It is also playable at Tokyo Game Show …
Bring open science into the classroom
To truly change science, the next generation of researchers must understand not only open science practices but also the values behind them. Find three ways to introduce them to students
NASA’s New Horizons spots signs of liquid nitrogen flowing on Pluto
Scientists have found the first evidence that liquid may have flowed across Pluto’s surface in the recent past. Dark features on the enormous Sputnik Planitia glacier appear consistent with liquid nitrogen rising through cracks from deep beneath the ice. Computer models show that nitrogen could melt at the glacier’s base and travel upward like fluid through small conduits. The finding reveals that Pluto may be much more geologically active than its frozen appearance suggests.
Health officials urge Virginians to get flu vaccine as season approaches
As flu season approaches, health officials are encouraging Virginians to get vaccinated. The Central Shenandoah Health District says vaccination remains the best way to help prevent severe illness.
HHS recognizes 2026 Behavioral Health and Children and Family Services Conference award recipients | Health and Human Services North Dakota
North Dakota Health and Human Services (HHS) recognized five individuals and teams for their outstanding contributions to children, families and behavioral health services during the 2026 Behavioral Health & Children and Family Services Conference. The annual awards recognize providers and professionals who demonstrate exceptional service, innovation, leadership and a commitment to improving the lives of North Dakotans.
Rising diesel prices hit area businesses
Razorback Rentals owner says fuel costs are the highest since he took over the business in 2004
Maryland health officials release list of potential measles exposure sites
Officials with the Maryland Department of Health is alerting residents about potential measles exposure following an individual from another state visiting several locations within Maryland.
House passes Russia sanctions, sending bill named for Lindsey Graham to Trump's desk
The legislation was named for the late South Carolina Republican. It gives the president authority to impose tariffs on top importers of oil and natural gas from Russia, such as China and India.
Paramount's California future in doubt amid escalating legal fight
Paramount declined to comment on reports it may leave California, prompting responses from state officials as the company battles a lawsuit over its Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
Joe Burrow a limited participant
Bengals QB Joe Burrow listed as limited because of back issue
What Today’s Rate Hike Means For Business Leaders
Today, the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh raised rates to address inflation that remains above target
Judge refers Philadelphia’s progressive district attorney to DOJ for prosecution
A federal judge referred Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner and one of his top prosecutors to the Justice Department for potential obstruction of justice, perjury and false statements tied to the recent review of a 2009 murder conviction.
Philly’s political parties can now spend unlimited amounts in coordination with their candidates
In next year’s primary elections for mayor and Council, candidates endorsed by the Democratic City Committee could be able to access major financial advantages over their rivals.
Hood announces new Delaplaine School of Business and Communication
Hood College’s Department of Communication Arts and George B. Delaplaine Jr. School of Business are merging to form the Delaplaine School of Business and Communication, school officials announced.
Kentucky health officials confirm 50 measles cases statewide. Here’s what counties near us have reported cases
Dozens of measles cases have been reported across Kentucky. Officials say there are 50 cases reported.
VIDEO: Warnock Calls Out AI Developers, Social Media Companies, After Bizarre Health Hoax » Reverend Raphael Warnock
Senator Reverend Warnock warned about the risk to democracy after AI-generated social media posts with false health news about the Senator went viral Senator Reverend Warnock: “What if hours before an election, someone created a page with AI-generated images, fake stories about the candidates? How will voters know what’s true and what’s not true?” Washington, D.C. – Yesterday, U.S. […]
Health officials urge preventative rabies care after stray cat tests positive in Pitt County
Pitt County health officials are offering advice to pet owners after a stray cat tested positive for rabies this week, marking the county’s third confirmed case this year.
Hands-On With the Redesigned Health App in the iOS 27.2 Beta
With the iOS 27.2 beta, Apple is testing the new Health app that it previewed at its September iPhone event. The app has been entirely overhauled, with new Insights and Longevity tabs that give you more information on your health and fitness metrics. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. The Insights tab shows your most recent health data, such as Activity Rings, heart rate, sleep score, and vitals.
Hands-On With the Redesigned Health App in the iOS 27.2 Beta
With the iOS 27.2 beta, Apple is testing the new Health app that it previewed at its September iPhone event. The app has been entirely overhauled, with new Insights and Longevity tabs that give you more information on your health and fitness metrics. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. The Insights tab shows your most recent health data, such as Activity Rings, heart rate, sleep score, and vitals.
AMS Science Preview: High-Res Global Forecasting, Tornado Emergencies
Recent research in AMS journals spotlights tornado emergencies, kilometer-scale global weather forecasting, a new normal for polar sea ice, links between Tibetan snow cover and intense tropical…
Google Home app brings battery-efficient widget, reduces gray device tiles
Google today is also rolling out Home app (especially for the homescreen widget) and Gemini for Home voice assistant updates.
Windows 11 KB5124008 update breaks domain trust for some users
Microsoft is investigating reports that the Windows 11 KB5124008 security update is breaking domain trust relationships on some enterprise systems, preventing users from logging in with valid domain credentials.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
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