SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " SSW " 855 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
IKS Health Announces Agreement to Acquire TruBridge to Strengthen Access to Rural and Community-Based Healthcare
Inventurus Knowledge Solutions, Inc. (“IKS”), the U.S. subsidiary of Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited (NSE: IKS) (“IKS Health”), a global leader in car...
Regions Bank + Dash Solutions Collaborate on New Treasury Management Solution to Modernize Client Payment Operations
Regions ReimbursePro delivers fast, flexible and convenient options to help clients initiate real-time money movement. Regions Bank on Thursday announced the launch of Regions ReimbursePro , the bank’s latest Treasury Management innovation designed to help business clients modernize their payment processes and expedite real-time money movement. Regions ReimbursePro is a new, forward-thinking Treasury Management solution designed to help business clients accelerate refunds, modernize their payment processes and fuel growth. Regions ReimbursePro is powered by Dash Solutions , a leading payments enablement company also headquartered in Birmingham. The solution provides Regions’ Treasury Management clients access to a modern, secure digital platform that helps transform refund operations away from older, manual, time-consuming processes that include paper documents and physical checks. Key upgrades include: Once a reimbursement is initiated through this new solution, recipients can choose
PENN Entertainment, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results
PENN Entertainment, Inc. (“PENN” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: PENN) today reported financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Jay Snowden, Chief E...
No. 14 on the list of Tampa Bay's Most Powerful Politicians: Laurel Lee
In her 2 terms in office, the Congresswoman has so far sponsored four bills that became law, with more bills on track to pass.
AEG Presents and Goldenvoice Spotlight Careers in Live Entertainment at Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival
NORTHAMPTON, MA / ACCESS Newswire / April 22, 2026 / More than 100 local high school students gained a behind-the-scenes look at careers in live entertainment when AEG Presents and Goldenvoice hosted a career exposure day at the Coachella Valley Music ...
Report: Washington State’s Life Sciences Industry Outpaces National Life Science and State Private Sector Job Growth for 5th Consecutive Year
Life Science Washington, the state’s industry trade association, today released its annual Economic Impact Report which reveals Washington’s life sciences in...
Mara Brock Akil And Congresswoman Sydney Kamlager-Dove Share How Storytelling Shapes Black Maternal Health
On Saturday, April 18, In Our Own Voice: National Black Women’s Reproductive Justice Agenda brought together elected officials, TV and film writers, creators, and community leaders for a powerful conversation unpacking how media narratives can impact policy.
Democrats challenging Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick welcome resignation, want Special Election to replace her
Luther Campbell, Dale Holness and Elijah Manley all say the ex-Congresswoman's scandal distracted from her service.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
'Love on the Spectrum' star Abbey Romeo's mom reveals true reason behind split from David Isaacman
'Love on the Spectrum' star Abbey Romeo's mom, Christine Romeo, finally let fans inside her daughter's split from David Isaacman, whom she met on the show's first season and dated for nearly 5 years.
Summer Savings Starts Now: Caesars Entertainment’s Las Vegas Resorts Introduce More Value Options
Caesars Entertainment is starting summer early with an expansive collection of travel, dining, spa and entertainment deals across its Las Vegas resorts. High...
Xfinity Kicks Off Member Celebration with Three Weeks of Exclusive Entertainment, Sports, Live Experiences and Savings from Comcast NBCUniversal
Comcast’s Xfinity today launched its Xfinity Member Celebration, a limited-time event running through May 10 that delivers three weeks of bonus benefits, swe...
‘More needs to be done’: Former congresswoman and survivor laments lack of protections against sexual abuse
Exclusive | Ilhan Omar Says She Isn’t a Multimillionaire, Blames Accounting Error
The Minnesota Democratic congresswoman, facing potential investigations pushed by President Trump and House Republicans, said she isn’t as wealthy as documents she previously submitted to Congress suggest.
Reps. Adams, Underwood and Sen. Booker Introduce Black Maternal Health Week Resolution
WASHINGTON – Today, U.S. Congresswomen Alma Adams, Ph.D. (D-NC-12) and Lauren Underwood (D-IL-14), along with U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), introduced the bicameral resolution recognizing April 11 through April 17 as Black Maternal Health Week.
Seaport Entertainment Group Announces First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. (NYSE: SEG) (“Seaport Entertainment Group,” “SEG” or the “Company”) today announced it will release its first quarter 2026 o...
K-pop giants HYBE, JYP, SM Entertainment and YG Entertainment plan joint venture for music festival
K-pop giants HYBE, JYP Entertainment, SM Entertainment, and YG Entertainment are preparing to establish a joint venture focused on launching a ‘global’ music festival. According to an exclusive report…
Mastercard: What Financial Health Looks Like Right Now
New global research shows consumers define being financially well as paying bills on time and staying out of debt, long before building wealth or planning for retirement. NORTHAMPTON, MA / ACCESS Newswire / April 16, 2026 /Originally published by ...
How Dangerous Is Anthropic’s New AI Model? Its Chief Science Officer Explains.
Just how fast is the future coming at us, and how worried should we be? Last week, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos, the latest in what has become the leading family of AI models. In a very short time, AI models from Anthropic and other companies have become shockingly powerful at coding. But Mythos stands out because it is not just able to write code that can hack into critical systems, like those that run financial companies, but also to analyze systems and find and string together vulnerabilities in them, allowing Mythos to evade even sophisticated defenses. Anthropic chose to release Mythos to only about 40 leading corporations, so they could analyze the model’s capabilities and prepare countermeasures, in an effort it calls Project Glasswing. The release of Mythos—and the prospect of similarly powerful AIs to follow—has caused tremors at the top levels of Washington and corporate America. Jared Kaplan, co-founder and chief science officer at Anthropic, is at the center of this breakthrough. We sat down with Kaplan so he could walk us through just how powerful Mythos is, what the implications are for issues like our personal privacy, and what comes next. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Sean Fischer: For the layman, how is Claude Mythos different—more powerful, more dangerous—from previous models released by Anthropic? Jared Kaplan: I think most people have experienced the fact that our computers get faster and faster over time and over many decades. There’s this very smooth trend where every 18 months, maybe, computer processing power doubles. I think AI is on a trend in which it’s improving maybe 10 times faster than that. A lot of the earliest work that I did in AI was around identifying this scaling trend in AI. Claude Mythos is the latest model from Anthropic, but it’s not different because it’s qualitatively different. It’s really just kind of the culmination of the trend of AI models getting smarter and smarter at all kinds of general capabilities, from reasoning to software engineering to scientific research to knowledge work. For us, it was the first model to demonstrate very elite-level cybersecurity capabilities. It wasn’t because we trained Claude Mythos to focus on cybersecurity, but it was because, as a byproduct of its general intelligence and its general ability with software, it’s particularly good at identifying vulnerabilities in software and how to exploit them.
Skild AI Acquires Zebra Technologies' Robotics Automation Business
Skild AI today announced the acquisition of Zebra Technologies' Robotics Automation business, including its Symmetry Fulfillment orchestration platform. This...
What Swalwell’s exit means for Democrats in California’s governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer and ex-congresswoman Katie Porter stand to benefit the most in a Democratic field with no clear front-runner, several strategists said.
Swalwell resigned. But will he face real consequences?
California Rep. Eric Swalwell resigned from Congress and suspended his gubernatorial campaign. But did he actually apologize and take accountability?
WEBTOON Entertainment Announces Leadership Changes to Accelerate Global Growth Strategy
WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. (Nasdaq: WBTN) today announced a new global leadership structure and Chief Business Officer role as it accelerates execution and i...
UL Solutions Inc. Broadens Portfolio with Agreement to Acquire Eurofins Scientific's Electrical & Electronics Business1
UL Solutions Inc. (NYSE: ULS), a global leader in applied safety science, today announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the electrica...
Max Lousada and Julie Greenwald are in business. Welcome to 26.2 — in partnership with Sony Music
Ex-Warner veterans take the wraps off 26.2 – a record label with global ambitions…
Xsolla Brings Accessibility, Social Impact, and Entertainment IP Licensing With Xsolla Agency to London Games Festival 2026
Xsolla, a global video game commerce company, today announced its presence at the London Games Festival 2026 (April 13–19), with activities spanning gaming a...
BIZNOTE: After almost a quarter-century, Avalon Glassworks looking for new ownership for their unique West Seattle business
By Tracy Record West Seattle Blog editor More change is on the way for the heart of the Luna Park mini-business district. Shannon Felix and Jon Felix are looking for new ownership for Avalon Glassworks, which they've owned for 23 of its 33 years at 2914 SW Avalon Way. Their one-of-a-kind business - West Seattle's only commercial ...
Country music star says UFOs chased her plane for hundreds of miles
She said the orbs followed her plane from Arkansas to Nashville.
'Not about politics': Miami Beach unveils repurposed rainbow crosswalk installation
Pride is back on display in Miami Beach, as city leaders unveiled a new installation repurposing the bricks from the former Ocean Drive rainbow crosswalk.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Canadian politician goes viral for using sprawling LGBT acronym critics compare to a Wi-Fi password
A Canadian politician's use of the lengthy acronym MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ during public remarks went viral, with social media users comparing it to a password.
GlassWorm Campaign Uses Zig Dropper to Infect Multiple Developer IDEs
GlassWorm uses a fake WakaTime VS Code extension to infect IDEs, deploy RATs, and steal data, prompting urgent credential rotation.
‘A clear and present danger to the country": Democratic Congresswoman on calls for Pres. Trump to be removed from office
Wasabi Technologies to Acquire Seagate’s Lyve Cloud Business
Wasabi Technologies, the hot cloud storage company, today announced it will acquire the Lyve Cloud business from Seagate Technology LLC (NASDAQ: STX), a lead...
Amazon Pharmacy to Offer Eli Lilly and Company’s New GLP-1 Pill Foundayo via Same-Day Delivery
Amazon Pharmacy (NASDAQ: AMZN), a full-service digital pharmacy that offers fast medication delivery directly to customers' homes, now offers Eli Lilly and C...
Secretly Distribution acquires music data and analytics firms Entertainment Intelligence and Babel Ops
Babel Ops was founded in 2020 by Erik Gilbert and Greg Delaney, who previously co-founded Entertainment Intelligence in 2014.
iOS 26.4.1 fixes iPhone bug that stopped iCloud data from syncing, including Apple Passwords
iOS 26.4.1 is available today. While the official release notes were vague, a thread on the developer forums indicates it...
Atkore Inc. Announces Sale of HDPE Pipe & Conduit Business to Infra Pipes
Atkore Inc. (the “Company”) (NYSE: ATKR), a leading manufacturer of electrical products for commercial, industrial, data center, and solar applications, toda...
Leostream Demonstrates High-Performance Remote and Hybrid Media and Entertainment Workloads at NAB Show 2026
Leostream Corporation, creator of the world-leading Leostream® Remote Desktop Access Platform, will show broadcast/entertainment professionals how its platfo...
Mitchell Silberberg & Knupp Strengthens Entertainment Transactions Practice with Addition of New York Media & Entertainment Partner
Mitchell Silberberg & Knupp LLP (MSK) announced today that it has expanded its national Entertainment Transactions group with the addition of Amy Stein Simon...
AMC Entertainment Delivers Best Ever Global Revenue Mark for a 5-Day Easter Weekend, Led by THE SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE, Strong Merchandise Sales, and Solid Performances by Other Titles
AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC), the largest theatrical exhibitor in the United States and in the world, today announced that it delivered a record-setting per...
Providence-backed ATG Entertainment launches ATG Live, a dedicated concerts, comedy and events division
“We see tremendous opportunity ahead and are excited to continue expanding our reach while delivering unforgettable experiences for audiences and partners across the U.S.”…
In Alaska's U.S. Senate race, Peltola takes aim at 'crooked' political elites
If you follow Mary Peltola on social media, maybe you’ve noticed that the former Alaska congresswoman is talking about more than fish, family and freedom as she runs for U.S. Senate.
CIM Group and Partners in Miami Worldcenter Sell Development’s Retail and Entertainment District to Falcone Group, ROK Acquisitions, Andrew Mirmelli, The Davis Companies and Jamestown
CIM Group and its partners in Miami Worldcenter have sold retail and entertainment district component of the 27-acre development in downtown Miami.
Avi-Go Launches Avi-Go.AI, Building the Intelligence Layer for Business Aviation
Discover Avi-Go.AI, Avi-Go’s upcoming AI-native platform for smarter business aviation intelligence, analysis, and workflow automation. Avi-Go.AI represents a fundamental shift in how intelligence is accessed and applied in business aviation” — Colin, CEO & Founder of Avi-Go. SINGAPORE, April 2, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — In business aviation, competitive advantage is no longer defined only by access […]
Rostrum Pacific’s FatBeats acquires physical distro company Traffic Entertainment, plus D2C store and label
The deal brings together three companies with a combined 50 years of experience in vinyl distribution, physical distribution, and premium catalog re-issues.
SoFi Launches Big Business Banking to Power Fiat and Crypto Banking on a Single Regulated Platform
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI), the one-stop shop for digital financial services, today announced the launch of SoFi Big Business Banking, a new offe...
WBTN Investors Have Opportunity to Join WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. Fraud Investigation with the Schall Law Firm
WBTN Investors Have Opportunity to Join WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. Fraud Investigation with the Schall Law Firm
Golden Entertainment Shareholders Approve Master Transaction Agreement With Blake Sartini and VICI Properties
Golden Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ: GDEN) (“Golden Entertainment” or the “Company”) announced that at its Special Meeting of Shareholders held on March 31, 2...
Golf Entertainment Group Inc. Announces Full Year Financial Results
Golf Entertainment Group Inc. (OTCQX: GLFE) (the “Company”), a leading owner and operator of golf-related leisure and entertainment businesses, today announc...
America Needs Reproductive Health Leave
Too often, "women have to choose between working through unbearable pain, losing income they can’t afford to go without, or tapping into a limited number of sick days," writes Congresswoman Ansari.
PENN Entertainment to Report First Quarter Results and Host Conference Call and Webcast on April 23
PENN Entertainment, Inc. (Nasdaq: PENN) announced today that it will release its 2026 first quarter financial results at 7:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, April 23, ...
The Crossword, March 30: Feeling Good (Themeless)
It’s time to wrap up the month with a challenging themeless. Keep an eye out for tricky clues and fun wordplay. This week’s puzzle was constructed by Rafael Musa and Owen Bergstein, and edited by Hoang-Kim Vu. Defector crosswords, launched in partnership with our friends at AVCX, run every Monday. If you’re interested in submitting a puzzle to us,…
Foundation Gaming & Entertainment Announces Sponsorship of New MPB Original Series “Southern Dish”
Foundation Gaming & Entertainment, a Mississippi-based hospitality and gaming company, is pleased to announce its sponsorship of Mississippi Public Broadcast...
UFC brings cage-match bout to the White House, home of a president who favors cage-match politics
UFC brings cage-match bout to the White House, home of a president who favors cage-match politicsBy WILL WEISSERTAssociated PressThe Associated PressWASHINGTONPresident Donald Trump is hosting a UFC fight on White House grounds to celebrate his 80th birthday and the nation’s 250th anniversary. Trump has long supported UFC and during his
University Park officials say SMU crosswalk doesn't violate state order
University Park officials say an intersection featuring the Southern Methodist University mascot is not in violation of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s order prohibiting decorative markings on state roads.
House ethics panel finds Florida congresswoman Cherfilus-McCormick committed 25 violations
The House Ethics Committee has found Democratic congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick of Florida committed numerous violations of House rules and ethics standards
Entertainment Industry Veterans Launch Unified Production Platform (UPP)
Unified Production Platform (UPP) today announced its official launch, led by founder Mujeebur Rahmansaher and partners Greg Smith and An De Vooght—three ent...
Unity Releases Preliminary First Quarter Results Exceeding Guidance; Will Enhance Growth and Profitability by Exiting Non-Strategic Ad Businesses
Unity (NYSE: U), the world’s leading game engine, today announced preliminary revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter 2026 above guidance. Unity ex...
PSA: Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds Is Now Available Physically On Switch 2
And it's not a Game-Key Card
Bleecker Street’s Crosswalk, LD Entertainment acquire ‘Hadestown’ ...
Hadestown: The Musical shot in London's West End in 2025.
Bleecker Street’s Crosswalk & LD Entertainment Acquire West End Live Version Of ‘Hadestown’
Bleecker Street’s event cinema division Crosswalk has teamed with LD Entertainment to acquire North American and English-speaking territories for the West End live theater-shot Tony Award-winning hit ...
Florida congresswoman faces a rare public hearing on ethics charges. Threat of expulsion vote looms
The House Ethics Committee is holding a rare public hearing into alleged ethics violations by Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. The hearing Thursday pushes into the open a yearslong investigation into how...
WEBTOON Entertainment Announces Unified International CANVAS Platform, Helping Creators Grow Their Audience and Earnings
WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. (Nasdaq: WBTN), a global entertainment company and home to some of the world’s largest storytelling platforms, today announced a u...
South Korea’s Kakao Entertainment appoints JungHee Ko as Co-CEO alongside Joseph Chang in
Ko takes on an additional role as Chief Platform Officer, overseeing a newly created unit responsible for Kakao Entertainment’s platform services…
Callodine Specialty Income Fund Adds Entertainment Lending and Aviation Finance Strategies
Callodine Group (“Callodine” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the addition of Corrum Capital Management (“Corrum Capital”) as a sub-advisor to the Ca...
After teaming up with Sony Music Publishing to acquire Miranda Lambert catalog, Domain Capital closes $768M
SMP Nashville and Domain teamed up to acquire Miranda Lambert catalog in January…
Can Lifestyle Changes Over a Lifetime Protect Brain Health?
University of Miami researchers link long‑term exercise, diet, and social engagement to better cognition with aging.
Rep. Fischbach Honored as Small Business Deduction Champion by NFIB
(KNSI) - Minnesota's Seventh District Congresswoman Michelle Fischbach has been named a Small Business Deducti...
Obelisk Infotech Launches AI-Driven SEO Automation to Help Businesses Scale Digital Growth
PUNJAB, INDIA / ACCESS Newswire / March 25, 2026 / As more businesses move online and competition across digital channels continues to grow, the need for smarter and more scalable marketing strategies has become increasingly important. Obelisk Infotech, ...
4 Pitt people were named Pittsburgh Business Times 2026 Women of Influence
The awards recognize the region’s businesswomen, including one Pitt dean and three alumnae, who make impactful change by leading organizations.
Bird‑like robots promise greater flexibility and control than drones
A bird banking in a crosswind doesn't rely on spinning blades. Its wings flex, twist and respond instantly to its environment. Engineers at Rutgers University have taken a major step toward building bird-like ...
‘They’ve Stolen the Narrative’: Black Business Leaders on the DEI Backlash
Bloomberg Businessweek convened five prominent Black executives to candidly discuss navigating the White House, rollbacks in access and the current American mood.
'Completely lawless': Why this congresswoman wants Pam Bondi impeached
From the Epstein files to the integrity of prosecutions, Democratic Congresswoman Summer Lee says Attorney General Pam Bondi is damaging the DOJ.
Accenture Reports Second-Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results
Accenture reported financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 ended February 28, 2026.
New ‘Perseus’ Android malware checks user notes for secrets
A new Android malware called Perseus is checking user-curated notes to steal sensitive information, like passwords, recovery phrases, or financial data.
NHL 26 Predicts Stars vs. Avalanche
Let's see what real life has in store for us.
SoFi Responds to Inaccurate Short Seller Report
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI), the one-stop shop for digital financial services, today issued the following statement: The claims made in the Muddy ...
The race for a safe Democratic House seat offers clues about the party’s future
It’s Primary Day in Illinois, where 15 Democrats, spanning three generations, are vying to succeed longtime Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky in the state's 9th Congressional District. We discuss what the race tells us about the future of the Democratic Party.This episode: senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, political reporter Elena Moore, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.This podcast was produced by Casey Morell and Bria Suggs, and edited by Rachel Baye. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.
Oklo Publishes Full-Year 2025 Financial Results and Business Update
Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) (“Oklo” or “the Company”), an advanced nuclear technology company, today published its financial results and business update for the q...
Mastercard to Acquire BVNK to Connect On-Chain Payments and Fiat Rails
Mastercard today announced a definitive agreement to acquire BVNK, a leader in stablecoin infrastructure.
Scott Borchetta launches Borchetta Entertainment Group management division with Carly Pearce signing
Borchetta’s departure from HYBE AMERICA was announced in February.
Every Business Owner Needs This Password Manager for Just $24.97
Sticky Password Premium stores passwords safely for businesses, and is on sale for $25.
Marjorie Taylor Greene Was Never Fringe
The Georgia congresswoman is out of office. Her conspiracies continue to define her party.
Trump administration must provide Kennedy Center renovation plans to board members before key closure vote, judge rules
A slew of documents related to President Donald Trump’s plans to close and extensively renovate the Kennedy Center must be turned over to a Democratic congresswoman who sits on the center’s board ahead of a Monday vote on the president’s plan, a federal judge has ruled.
Jaguar Health Presenting March 12 at the Life Sciences Virtual Investor Forum to Provide Updates on Near-Term Catalysts
SAN FRANCISCO, CA / ACCESS Newswire / March 11, 2026 /Jaguar Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:JAGX) today announced that Lisa Conte, the company's founder, president and CEO, will present virtually on Thursday, March 12, 2026 at the Life Sciences Investor Forum ...
HPE Reports Fiscal 2026 First Quarter Results
HPE (NYSE: HPE) today announced financial results for the first quarter ended January 31, 2026. “HPE delivered a strong first quarter, outperforming in our n...
Steven Roth sells former Queens department store to Northwell Health for $236M
Two of New York’s frequent real estate shoppers just made a $236 million deal on an abandoned department store in Queens.The seller was Steven Roth, who acquired the 340,000-square-foot retail property in 1995 after a battle for control with now-President Donald Trump. Roth and partners stand to reap a nearly $150 million gain from selling the building near the Long Island Expressway to Northwell Health. The deal was disclosed Monday by Alexander’s Inc., a real estate firm Roth runs that is named after the big-in-its-time department store that once operated in the building. Alexander’s filed for bankruptcy in 1992 and closed all 11 of its locations. The site later became a Sears. It has been vacant since Burlington and Marshalls moved out last year.
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Georgia's special congressional election
Voters in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District will elect a replacement for former Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene in a special election on Tuesday
Passkeys were supposed to replace passwords, but they're failing for the most predictable reason
It was meant to make things easier.
Las Vegas A’s, Will Guidara, and Aramark Sports + Entertainment Reveal Vision for First-of-its-Kind Athletic Club Behind Home Plate of A’s New Ballpark
The Athletics (A’s), world-renowned restaurateur Will Guidara, and Aramark Sports + Entertainment (Aramark; NYSE: ARMK) today revealed the vision for the Ath...
Scientists Cut Amyloid Plaques by 50% in Mice With Engineered Cells
"This study marks the first successful attempt."
Community Health Systems Announces Definitive Agreement to Sell Four Arkansas Hospitals to Freeman Health System
Community Health Systems, Inc. (NYSE: CYH) announced today that a subsidiary of the Company has signed a definitive agreement to sell substantially all of th...
Getting started with Windows Hello for Business and Day 1 authentication at Microsoft
Discover how we moved to passwordless authentication internally at Microsoft and get tips on how your organization can implement your own solution.
Free Play Days – Call of Duty Black Ops 7, Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds, FBC: Firebreak and Black Desert
Free Play Days - enjoy Call of Duty Black Ops 7, Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds, FBC: Firebreak and Black Desert this weekend.
How To Make a Business Case for Sustainability
NORTHAMPTON, MA / ACCESS Newswire / March 5, 2026 / Businesses are constantly juggling priorities and shifting budgets around. Needs can change almost daily, making it challenging to get any project greenlit - even ones regarding sustainability. ...
WEBTOON Entertainment Elevates Yongsoo Kim to President to Accelerate Global Growth and Execution
WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. (Nasdaq: WBTN) today announced that Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Global WEBTOON Yongsoo Kim has been named President to lead...