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Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for May 4 #587
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Morrisey announces first $28.56 million in rural health transformation funding
Gov. Patrick Morrisey announced the first $28.56 million in Rural Health Transformation funding, now open for eligible groups to boost health outcomes, grow the rural healthcare workforce, and help more West Virginians return to work.
Malaria didn’t just kill early humans, it shaped who we became
Long before humans spread across the globe, a deadly disease may have quietly shaped where our ancestors lived—and even how we evolved. New research reveals that malaria didn’t just threaten early human survival; it actively pushed populations away from high-risk regions across Africa, fragmenting groups over tens of thousands of years. This separation influenced how different populations met, mixed, and exchanged genes, helping shape the genetic diversity we see today.
Communist and socialist groups call for 'revolution' and seizure of property at Minneapolis May Day rally
Minneapolis May Day rally organized for immigrant rights drew communist and socialist groups demanding revolution, rent caps and wealth redistribution.
Rodriguez introduces new AI bill, drawing kudos from business and consumer groups | The Sum and Substance
The bill requires disclosures on use of AI in consequential decisions, lets the AG's office intervene if algorithmic discrimination is found.
Colombia-Ecuador trade collapsing as tariff war intensifies, business groups say
RUMICHACA BRIDGE, Colombia/Ecuador, May 1 (Reuters) - The flow of goods between Colombia and Ecuador is drying up, industry groups on the South American countries' border say, as high tariffs resulti...
Science groups, former astronauts urge Congress to reject cuts to NASA
The White House’s budget proposal for the 2027 fiscal year would cut NASA’s budget by 23% and force the cancellation of dozens of missions.
Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana sparks debate over impact
The decision is drawing mixed reactions from voting rights advocates and political groups.
Business groups call LIRR union raise requests 'economically unsustainable'
The strike could begin on May 16, a week before Memorial Day and peak tourist season.
Trump administration ends funding for fentanyl test strips, baffling public health groups: "It doesn't make sense"
Yahoo Media Group unites sports and finance with new sports business hub
Available via both the Yahoo Sports and Yahoo Finance websites, the hub is powered in partnership with leading sports business publishers and voices.
Yahoo Media Group unites sports and finance with new sports business hub
Available via both the Yahoo Sports and Yahoo Finance websites, the hub is powered in partnership with leading sports business publishers and voices.
Report: Oklahoma health system performs poorly across all racial, ethnic groups
Health research and policy nonprofit the Commonwealth Fund warns that federal cuts and restrictions to Medicaid and the ACA Marketplace could worsen outcomes.
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 30 #583
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Viewpoint: A career in science is possible, and worth it
Starting a career in science is exciting, but also demanding, with researchers often faced with intense competition, long working hours and high levels of stress. A pioneer in the field of mass spectrometry, Carol Robinson has been there. She speaks with Science|Business on the importance of creating a supportive environment, particularly for women.Robinson did not wake up one day thinking that she would become a scientist. It was only late in school that she developed an interest in chemistry. “The more you work at something, the more you think, actually, this is fascinating. So, I went much further and deeper than I ever needed to pass the exam. And then I loved it,” she says. “I thought, I’m going to give it my all. I’m going to enjoy it while I’m here. But I didn’t think this would be my career for 50 odd years.”She left school at 16 to become a lab technician with the drug company Pfizer, which is where she first worked with mass spectrometry. Fascinated, she was encouraged to take a part-time degree and then a PhD. She went on to do pioneering work in native mass spectrometry, a technique that is used to study protein structures in their natural state, paving the way for breakthroughs in drug discovery. She also broke new ground by becoming the first female professor of chemistry at the University of Cambridge, and then the first female professor of chemistry at the University of Oxford, her current home.She now wants to show young researchers that a career in science is worth it. “Sometimes, I believe the culture isn’t very encouraging, and that’s something I have worked on,” Robinson says.In 2021, she launched the Kavli Institute for Nanoscience Discovery at Oxford, whose acronym gives a sense of what she hopes it will achieve. “Maybe it is corny,” she says. “It’s just a reminder that I would like it if we could all be kind to each other and supportive, especially for early-career researchers of either gender, because there’s quite a big attrition rate in science, and maybe it just doesn’t feel like a very friendly place to work.”And yet, a career in science comes with a lot of flexibility. “There are few careers where you have that amount of freedom, to go to conferences, to the library. Just because you didn’t see me didn’t mean I wasn’t working,” she says. “And I’m excited to come in every day. So, I don’t want people to think it’s a terrible place.”Gender equality is also important when it comes to the quality of science as a career. “The more women we have, the better it becomes,” Robinson adds.Imposter syndromeAccording to EU data, women outnumber men in university education but account for just about a third of graduates in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (Stem). And while the number of women working as scientists and engineers in the 27-member bloc is on the rise, their representation remains below that of men, at 41%. This discrepancy is even more pronounced in top-tier functions across these fields, where women fill just 20% of positions.Having supervised many young scientists, Robinson sees that women continue to have a greater propensity than men to doubt their abilities, a feeling she once shared. “When I was doing my PhD at the University at Cambridge, I really felt like an imposter,” she says. “I don’t think I ever felt I deserved to be there or owned it and was proud. I just thought I was lucky.” Later on, she adds, “I was always that person who said, I can’t apply yet because my CV is not strong enough.”She has now made it her job to encourage women to break with this imposter syndrome. For example, rather than calling for volunteers to give a lecture in the groups that she mentors or teaches, which nearly always results in men stepping forward, she goes straight to the women, “because I know they won’t push themselves forward.”But the gender gap in science is not just down to imposter syndrome. The “obvious” reason, Robinson says, and the reason that is on everybody’s mind when discussing workplace gender equality, is the balance between work and raising a family. Her own path was to choose between the two, taking an eight-year break after completing a postdoctoral training fellowship to bring up three children. And she continues to advise women not to work part-time while they raise a family. “You’ll just get half the pay and continue to work full-time because you are not able to fit everything in,” she says. “You should be able to have a family and come back to have the career that you want.”The solution is for men to also take career breaks. “That kind of evens it up, so that it’s not such a big thing for women,” Robinson says. “I always encourage men in my groups to do that. I think it’s important to take your share of the duties.”Support produces resultsAccording to the Women in Stem Network, a UK advocacy group, countries with strong childcare systems and equal pay policies retain more women in technical careers. In Europe, these are primarily found in the Nordic region and parts of central Europe.At the EU level, the European Commission asks all Horizon Europe applicant organisations to have a gender action plan in place. Since this criterion was introduced in 2021, the share of women leading consortia has increased to 31%, against 23% in Horizon 2020. Their overall participation, however, has risen just 1%, to 38%. After trying to weaken the requirement for gender action plans in 2025, the Commission now intends to adopt a plan for supporting women in research and innovation.Related articlesCommission scraps plan to water down gender requirements in HorizonHow gender balance can swing who wins Horizon Europe fundingRobinson herself has benefited from three Advanced Grants from the European Research Council. “I was extremely honoured and privileged to get those, because they really allowed me to fuel my passion,” she says. “Without that, it would have been a much harder slog.”Beyond applying gender rules, she says that more work is needed on translational enterprise, where women are, once again, largely underrepresented. The European Patent Office found that only 13.8% of applications were filed by women in 2022. “We have so many more women doing amazing science; why do they feel it’s not a thing to have a company?” she asks.She founded her own spin-out company, OMass Technologies, in 2016, and remains chair of its scientific advisory board now that it trades as OMass Therapeutics. As for research, Robinson is now studying how changes in the brain may be linked to depression, using port-mortem tissue. “We’re hoping to publish soon,” she says. “We had to consult with a lot of people who knew a lot more about the brain than we did. So, we’ve learnt a lot, and that’s always a lot of fun to learn a new thing. That’s what keeps you going.”
Business briefs, April 29
Ventas expects 2026 senior living investments will total $3B by year’s end … RFK Jr.’s recent comments on paid family caregivers ‘deeply concerning,’ advocates say … DHS interim final rule codifying immigration fees goes into effect May 29 … Assisted living provider groups back new HCBS quality measures, with caveats … Fitch rates Lebanon Valley Brethren Home at BBB
Australia becomes the 30th country to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem
The World Health Organization (WHO) has validated Australia for eliminating trachoma as a public health problem, marking a significant milestone in the health of indigenous peoples and in global efforts to combat neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Trachoma, the world’s leading infectious cause of blindness, no longer represents a public health problem in the country.Australia is among a growing number of countries that have successfully eliminated trachoma, contributing to global progress towards the targets set out in the WHO road map for NTDs 2021–2030.Trachoma is caused by the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis and spreads through close contact with infected individuals, contaminated surfaces, and flies that carry eye and nose discharge. Repeated infections can lead to scarring of the eyelids, turning eyelashes inward, and ultimately causing blindness if untreated.“WHO congratulates Australia on this important achievement,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “This success reflects sustained commitment, strong partnerships, and a focus on reaching populations most affected by health inequities. It brings us closer to a world free from the suffering caused by trachoma.”Australia’s journey to eliminationAustralia’s achievement reflects decades of targeted public health action, particularly in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, where trachoma persisted despite its earlier disappearance from the rest of the country.National efforts intensified with the establishment of the National Trachoma Management Programme in 2006, which implemented the WHO-recommended SAFE strategy: surgery for trichiasis, antibiotics to treat infection, promotion of facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement. Regular screening of all communities classified as at-risk of trachoma by teams of qualified health workers formed an important part of the Programme. Interventions were delivered through coordinated partnerships between federal and state governments, Aboriginal community-controlled health services, and local communities.Over time, sustained screening, treatment, and prevention activities, including improvements in housing, water, sanitation and hygiene, led to a steady decline in trachoma prevalence. Australia’s approach included adaptations to reflect its context, such as targeted treatment based on community-level data rather than mass drug administration, and strong integration with environmental health programmes.“Elimination of trachoma is a win for the eye health of communities across Australia, particularly those whose lives have been impacted by a disease that is entirely preventable,” said Mark Butler, Minister for Health and Ageing, Australia. “This major milestone is thanks to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leadership, community commitment and sustained investment over many decades.“The lessons from this work will inform how we approach other preventable health conditions in remote and regional Australia. Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations and local health workers have been central to this success, delivering culturally safe care and community-led solutions.”“This recognition from the World Health Organization reflects decades of work led by Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations, alongside local health workers in remote First Nations communities,” said Malarndirri McCarthy, Minister for Indigenous Australians. “Their work has been critical to eliminating trachoma as a public health problem in Australia.”Advancing global efforts against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs)Trachoma is one of 21 diseases and disease groups that are regarded by WHO as NTDs. Together, NTDs affect more than 1 billion people worldwide, primarily in underserved populations with limited access to essential services such as clean water, sanitation, and health care.Australia’s elimination of trachoma as a public health problem highlights the importance of sustained political commitment and cross-sectoral collaboration in addressing the underlying determinants of health. It also underscores the feasibility of eliminating trachoma even in geographically challenging settings.In addition to trachoma, Australia has several endemic NTDs, including Buruli ulcer, leprosy and scabies. Validation of elimination of trachoma as a public health problem marks the first time that WHO has confirmed the elimination of an NTD in Australia, which becomes the 63rd country globally and 16th in the Western Pacific Region to have eliminated at least one NTD.“Tackling neglected tropical diseases in the Western Pacific Region has long been a challenge for countries across the socioeconomic spectrum, given the complexities in reaching the most vulnerable communities, including in remote areas,” said Dr Saia Ma’u Piukala, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific. “As a doctor from Tonga, I’ve experienced these challenges for myself. But I also know that with strategic commitment underpinned by optimal resources and partnerships in health, success is possible as other countries in our region have also demonstrated. I commend Australia on eliminating trachoma as a public health problem and urge all involved to remain vigilant to ensure this status is maintained.”WHO continues to support countries working to eliminate trachoma and other NTDs, ensuring that progress reaches those most in need and that gains are sustained through strong surveillance, appropriately integrated into national health systems, and mainstreamed within the wider health sector and beyond.Editor’s notesNeglected tropical diseases and trachoma elimination effortsNeglected tropical diseases are associated with devastating health, social and economic consequences. Their burden is mainly felt among impoverished communities in tropical areas.Public health targets for the control, elimination and eradication of these conditions were set in the road map for neglected tropical diseases 2021–2030 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240010352).In 1996, WHO launched the WHO Alliance for the Global Elimination of Trachoma by 2020 (GET2020), creating a network of governments, non-governmental organizations and academic institutions dedicated to the fight against trachoma. WHO continues to support endemic countries to accelerate progress towards the global target of eliminating trachoma as a public health problem worldwide; 2030 is the new target date.Elimination of trachoma as a public health problem is defined as: (i) a prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) “unknown to the health system” of < 0.2% in ≥15-year-olds; and (ii) a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) in children aged 1–9 years of < 5%, in each formerly endemic district, plus (iii) the existence of a system to identify and manage incident cases of TT.Other countries validated by WHO as having eliminated trachoma as a public health problem are: Algeria, Benin, Burundi, Cambodia, China, Egypt, Fiji, Gambia, Ghana, India, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Libya, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar, Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Togo, Vanuatu and Viet Nam.
Dem pollster says party should do more to sell health care message
Focus groups conducted by Democratic-aligned firm Navigator Research show voters are struggling with health care costs, but some blame both parties.
A New Big Database of DNA From Indigenous Americans Shakes Up Scientists' Theories About Human Settlement of South America
Genomic data provides evidence for a previously unknown wave of migration, with Indigenous groups living in central and southern Mexico spreading into South America and the Caribbean starting around 1,300 years ago
Nucor Logs Profit Rises, Boosted by Steel Mills Business
The steel manufacturer higher profit across its three main business segments compared with the fourth quarter, with particularly strong growth in its steel mills segment, which benefited from higher average selling prices and volumes across all product groups, the company said.
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 28 #582
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Political Entrepreneurs or Bandits? The “Criminal” Origins of Peripheral Rebellions -
Political Entrepreneurs or Bandits? The “Criminal” Origins of Peripheral Rebellions By Janet I. Lewis and Stephen Rangazas, George Washington University How and why do armed groups that become known as “rebels” initially use violence? New datasets [...]
Watchdog report exposes teachers' union 'political machine' funneling more than $1 billion to liberal causes
New reports reveal teachers unions poured over $1 billion into left-wing political causes in the past decade, according to Defending Education.
Mali rattled by ongoing armed attacks: What to know
Mali's security situation has deteriorated in recent years, as armed groups have carried out coordinated attacks.
San Carlos Earth Day celebration brings entertainment and education to community
The San Carlos Earth Day event on Laurel Street drew crowds on April 19, as attendees explored booths from sustainability groups, public safety officials, and local agencies promoting environmental action, waste reduction, and health and safety. Held next to the weekly farmers market, the event benefited from heavy foot traffic and offered educational and engaging...
Overnight Science Digest: Rethinking thinking by examining animal and AI intelligences
This week’s science news theme—the convoluted relationships between humans and non-human intelligences—arose from an unexpected combination of two dichotomous groups, wildlife and AI. I’ve added in a…
DNA research just rewrote the origin of human species
Scientists have uncovered a surprising new picture of human origins that challenges the long-held idea of a single ancestral population in Africa. By analyzing genetic data from diverse modern African groups—especially the highly distinct Nama people—and comparing it with fossil evidence, researchers found that early humans likely evolved from multiple intermingling populations over hundreds of thousands of years. Rather than a clean split, these groups stayed connected, exchanging genes even after beginning to diverge around 120,000–135,000 years ago.
Labor, business groups launch effort to extend California’s nuclear plant
The Diablo Canyon Power Plant only has permission to operate through 2030.
Rowena Dzorvakpor’s dual degree combines health care, business knowledge
The immigrant from Ghana hopes to use her experiences at Carolina to impact insurance groups or pharmaceutical companies.
Rowena Dzorvakpor’s dual degree combines health care, business knowledge
The immigrant from Ghana hopes to use her experiences at Carolina to impact insurance groups or pharmaceutical companies.
Democrats dominate midterm fundraising, but Republicans have a huge cash advantage
The latest campaign finance reports show Democratic enthusiasm in key House and Senate races, but national Republican groups have far more in the bank to potentially spend down the road.
Trump upended health care. Lobbyists are raking it in.
New disclosures show health industry firms and trade groups are spending more than ever to influence Washington.
As Democrats Outraise Republican Candidates, the G.O.P. Has This $600 Million Edge
Even as the party faces a worrisome political environment and its candidates are outraised by Democratic ones, powerful Republican groups and super PACs have built a colossal advantage.
Journalists urge protest of Trump at correspondents' dinner
A coalition of 200-plus journalists and press freedom groups urged the White House Correspondents' dinner organizers to call out Trump at the event.
This week in Santa Cruz County business: Graniterock facing lawsuit over Pajaro River; housing development at former Outdoor World site moves forward
In her weekly look at local business, Jessica M. Pasko reports on a lawsuit filed by environmental groups against Watsonville's Graniterock, development continuing in downtown Santa Cruz and plenty more names, numbers and dates to know.
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 22 #576
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Science Research Students Present at Terra NYC Semifinals
By DORIS CHEN and YUEHAN DAI Nineteen Midwood students showcased months of independent research at the Terra NYC STEM Fair on March 1 at Stuyvesant High School, with 12 groups being part of the semifinals and one group making it to the finals. Seniors Charlotte Maloney and Karen Zevelev
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
When the CEO Becomes the Brand
Research suggests that Elon Musk’s political stance appears to have reshaped how different groups perceive Tesla. Overall sales trends hint at trouble. The company’s growth stalled in 2024, and deliveries fell 8.5% in 2025. But those headline numbers hide what is happening beneath the surface. When the data is broken down by political orientation and by changes in views of Musk, a more complicated pattern emerges. Among right-leaning respondents and those whose opinion of Musk has improved, Tesla’s brand appeal is significantly higher and willingness to pay exceeds that for many competing brands, including Ford, Chevrolet, and Rivian. Among left-leaning consumers and those whose view of Musk has worsened, the opposite is true: Preference and willingness to pay for Tesla drop sharply. The outcome is not a uniform decline but a polarization of demand. Some consumers appear to feel alienated, while others feel more aligned with the brand. This raises an important strategic question of whether companies can influence purchasing decisions across these divided segments by strengthening the underlying value proposition.
Business groups optimistic on Sherrill budget
The governor has proposed limiting businesses' ability to deduct losses as part of her $60.7 billion budget proposal.
'It's so chaotic': Humpback whales are forming super-groups
On a misty morning in December, two photographers captured the images of 304 individual humpbacks – the highest number of large whales ever identified in a single day.
SRAM Eagle S-Series Combines 9 Groups into 3, Adds New UDH Half Mount
SRAM Half Mount looks pretty interesting, but it may only be offered on the lowest end group?
How Employers Support Lower-Waged Workers' Access to Health Insurance Options
Health insurance makes up 8% of total employee compensation on average, and while most employees take up health insurance when it is offered, lower-wage workers are far less likely to be able to access coverage, according to an analysis of survey data and focus groups with more than 100 U.S. employers with over a quarter of a million employees.
Consider Beijing’s 10-point plan, Taiwan business leaders urge ruling DPP
The island’s government has sparked a row by accusing industry groups of bowing to pressure from mainland China.
Taiwan business group urges Beijing, Taipei to keep politics out of trade
The head of one of Taiwan's top business groups said on Monday both Beijing and Taipei should leave politics out of resuming normal trade and tourism exchanges, after China unveiled new incentives for the island.
Taiwan business group urges Beijing, Taipei to keep politics out of trade
The head of one of Taiwan's top business groups said on Monday both Beijing and Taipei should leave politics out of resuming normal trade and tourism exchanges, after China unveiled new incentives for the island.
Business groups resist anti-immigrant bills cheered by Trump
Many of the bills share common goals and similar texts, and they reflect the immigration enforcement priorities of the Trump administration.
Business groups resist anti-immigrant bills cheered by the White House
Most of the roughly 200 bills targeting immigrants in red states have stalled or died this year, with help from business and Christian groups.
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 19 #573
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Sunbirds suck, scientists find. Hummingbirds don’t.
Two unrelated groups of nectar eaters, hummingbirds and sunbirds, evolved different techniques to slurp the sweet liquid from flowers. The tongue suctioning employed by sunbirds is unique among
Coachella 2026: Girl groups bring global reach and hometown roots
The three acts point to a broader shift at Coachella. Girl groups, particularly those from global and independent scenes, are no longer outliers on the lineup.
MSU-led initiative ramps up fight against food waste
Waste remains a challenge but Michigan groups are coordinating to better match production and demand and turn surplus food into meals for the hungry.
Amherst Sustainability Festival: A Day of Family Fun, Education, and Entertainment
Mark your calendars for the 14th Annual Amherst Sustainability Festival, taking place on Saturday, April 25 from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. on the Amherst Town Common. Coinciding with the regularly scheduled Amherst Farmer’s Market, this free and family friendly event brings together local farmers, environmental vendors, advocacy groups, live entertainment, hands-on demonstrations, sustainable crafts, and much more. “The Amherst Sustainability Festival has become a beloved event
Governor’s wildlife commission picks face pushback ahead of Colorado Senate hearing
Colorado’s largest coalition of hunters, anglers, and wildlife conservation groups is urging state lawmakers to reject two of Gov. Jared Polis’ latest nominees to the Colorado Parks and Wildlife Commission, setting up a contentious confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee next week. Gaspar Perricone, speaking for the Colorado Wildlife Conservation Project, […]
Jay Cheng resigns as head of wealthy S.F. political pressure group
The head of Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, one of the city's wealthiest political pressure groups, is out.
Chargé Arnold Speech - Implementation Plan of Five-Year Health MOU - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
Chargée d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold's Speech Discussion on the implementation plan for the five-year health Memorandum of Understanding (…) Colleagues, and honored guests, Good morning, and welcome to the United States Embassy. It is a pleasure to host you today for the second day of this important workshop to discuss the implementation of our bilateral health Memorandum of Understanding on U.S. Government health activities in Madagascar, made possible through the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. Today’s focus— discussing a shared vision and developing a preliminary draft for the health MOU Implementation Plan and the terms of reference for the two committees that will steer its implementation—is a decisive step in moving from commitments on paper to concrete action over the next five years. On December 22, 2025, the Governments of Madagascar and the United States signed a five-year bilateral health MOU, with a financial intention of approximately 554 billion Ariary from the United States and This jointly decided MOU intends to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, support lifesaving services, and improve disease prevention and response that matter to both our countries’ health security. For the United States, this means detecting and containing infectious disease outbreaks including malaria, polio, and emerging health threats before they can reach American shores through international travel and trade, protecting American families while reducing the need for costly domestic emergency responses Yesterday, technical experts from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government worked in thematic groups to draft a preliminary Implementation Plan. Today, your task is to review the shared vision and preliminary draft MOU implementation plan, and the proposed terms of reference for the Joint Steering Committee and the Operational Committee that will guide its implementation. These committees are not just administrative structures. They are the mechanisms that will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between our two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and real accountability for the results that will directly benefit the lives of Malagasy citizens. They will also track performance against the benchmarks we have jointly established, which will guide the continuation of U.S. support over the five-year period . Continued U.S. support will be contingent on meeting these performance benchmarks. This ensures accountability to both American and Malagasy taxpayers and guarantees that our partnership delivers measurable results. America First Foreign Assistance means that U.S. support must be strategic, results-driven, and accountable to our taxpayers. It also means we aim to support greater self-reliance and reduced long-term dependence on foreign assistance, with systems that are increasingly financed and led by Madagascar itself. This approach benefits both our nations: Madagascar gains sustainable health capacity, while the United States advances our health security interests and creates opportunities for American health innovations and companies to support Madagascar’s development. In that spirit, I want to recognize the presence of the Ministry’s leadership and the technical directors and program heads responsible for surveillance, basic health services, family health, immunization, countering malaria, laboratories, medicines, and health information systems. Your leadership and technical expertise are essential if this bilateral health MOU is to translate into real and lasting improvements for people in need across the country. Let me emphasize how important collaboration is to the United States in this effort. We can bring American resources, technical expertise, and tools. But this bilateral health MOU can only succeed if it reflects Madagascar’s priorities and if Malagasy institutions lead and maintain its implementation. We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support. That is why we are genuinely pleased to host this event here at the Embassy. Opening our doors to you today symbolizes our commitment to work side by side and to remain transparent about how we use U.S. resources in support of Madagascar’s health system. In closing, thank you for your time and your partnership. We are very happy to welcome you here and proud to accompany Madagascar in this next step of implementation planning for our bilateral health MOU. I wish you a productive and focused session. The work you do today will shape how our two governments cooperate on health in the years ahead; it will influence the quality and reliability of health services that Malagasy communities receive; and, most importantly, it will help protect both our nations from infectious disease threats while building Madagascar’s capacity for long-term health system sustainability. Thank you.
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan The United States and Madagascar’s Ministry of Public Health are in the process of developing a plan for implementing the U.S.-Madagascar five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on health cooperation, signed under the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. The two-day workshop, at the U.S. Embassy in Antananarivo, brought together technical experts and senior leadership from the Malagasy and U.S. governments to discuss a shared vision through a preliminary draft MOU Implementation Plan and to establish the joint governance structures that will guide U.S. foreign assistance in health over the next five years. The jointly decided bilateral health MOU, signed on December 22, 2025, builds on decades of U.S. global health assistance to Madagascar. The health MOU involves the U.S.’s plans, working with Congress, to provide approximately $134 million (over 554 billion Ariary) and a Malagasy commitment of $41 million (over 169 billion Ariary). It aims to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, improve disease prevention and response, and support services that address health security concerns for both countries, including malaria, maternal and child health, polio, and global health security issues that could reach U.S. shores if not contained at their source. During the recent workshop, technical staff from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government health team worked in thematic groups to draft detailed implementation plans for the five-year MOU period. On the second day, U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold and Ministry of Public Health and Economic and Finance Ministry leadership joined the technical teams to discuss plans and proposed terms of reference for two committees: a Joint Steering Committee and an Operational Committee. These structures will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between the two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and accountability for results. The framework includes performance benchmarks that will guide continued U.S. support and track Madagascar’s progress toward self-reliance. “We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support,” said U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold during the workshop’s opening session. The approach reflects U.S. foreign assistance principles that emphasize strategic, results-driven support that advances American interests while helping recipient countries build sustainable health systems. The framework is designed to build systems that Madagascar will increasingly finance and lead itself, reducing long-term dependence on foreign assistance.
GOP, Dem challenger hit Rebecca Cooke for outside political work
Rebecca Cooke cultivates an image as a political outsider, but her opponents say that masks her years of outside work for Democratic groups.
Business groups object to paper bag fee in Massachusetts environmental bond bill
New maps assess health of sagebrush ecosystems across the West
Conservation groups, state and federal agencies and local leaders partnered to create digital maps that provide a broad view of where sagebrush ecosystems are thriving and where they hang in the balance.
A crushed fossil revealed a dinosaur that shouldn’t have existed
A badly mangled dinosaur skull, once forgotten in a drawer, turned out to be a rare and important discovery. Reconstructed by a Virginia Tech student, it revealed a new species of early carnivorous dinosaur with unusual features never seen before. The fossil suggests some dinosaur groups were wiped out during the end-Triassic extinction, not just their rivals. It may represent one of the last survivors of an ancient dinosaur lineage.
Coal ash rollback 'all-out attack' on Indiana communities, groups say
The U.S. EPA proposed to roll back coal ash cleanup rules initially designed to protect people and water from pollution.
Worried about the midterms, Republicans mobilize rural Virginia voters against redistricting
Republican groups are mounting an intensifying, 11th-hour campaign to mobilize rural voters ahead of Virginia’s April 21 referendum to redraw its US House maps. At stake are as many as four US House seats Democrats want to redraw in their favor for the midterms. To maximize Democratic advantage, the map would put wealthy Washington, DC, suburbs in the same districts as farm communities 90 miles away, including in one misshapen district nicknamed the “lobster claw.”
Justice Dept. Moves to Vacate Jan. 6 Convictions for Far-Right Extremists
Defending the convictions would likely have required administration officials to assert that far-right groups were acting on behalf of President Trump on Jan. 6, 2021.
Plans to Bring More Youth to County Fairs With New Funding
More than 20 organizations across New York have received over $475,000 to help bring youth groups to local and county fairs during the 2026 fair season.
In the shadow of RDU, an NC community seeks its own commercial air service
Business and tourism groups in the Pinehurst area are trying to persuade an airline to begin daily flights from Moore County Airport to Washington, D.C.
THE WEEK OF APRIL 13, 2026
- Science groups criticize proposed budget cuts - Congress to hold budget hearings - White House abandons indirect costs case
Conservation groups call for 'science-based' approach to Alberta grizzly bear hunt proposal
Conservation groups say recent calls for the provincial government to legalize the hunting of threatened grizzly bears in Alberta aren't justified by science due to a lack of up-to-date population studies.
Venezuela hopes to lure back international miners, but it's a risky business
Venezuela's effort to attract foreign investors to develop its gold, iron and bauxite seams has enthusiastic backing from the Trump administration but faces big challenges, including armed groups with deep interests in the chaotic, largely illegal prospecting industry that has developed over the past 20 years, according to nine miners, residents and community activists who spoke to Reuters.
How To Understand Frontline, Diplomacy and Society in Iran
The ‘silent majority’ in Iran is not a passive bystander. Urban and university-educated groups are taking a stand against the war.
❝Anti-rights groups: why we need a smarter politics of naming
As movements working to undermine universal human rights protections become more influential, the language used to call out these “anti-rights” groups also needs closer scrutiny, or else risks being self-defeating, writes Nicolas Agostini, human rights advocate and researcher.
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 13 #567
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Stanford Health, Alameda County forge new partnership for St. Rose Hospital
Alameda County leaders and health care groups gathered outside St. Rose Hospital last week to announce an expansion to medical services for thousands of East Bay residents.
California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him
Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.
The Masters 2026 - final round LIVE! Latest updates, highlights, scores as Rory McIlroy chases major victory at Augusta National
Rory McIlroy looks to become first back-to-back winner of The Masters since Tiger Woods; coverage is live from 4.30pm on Sky Sports Golf, with Featured Groups, Featured Holes and extra coverage on Sky Sports+
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 12 #566
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
2026 Masters tee times, pairings: Complete schedule, groups, field for Round 4 on Sunday at Augusta National
The quest to win the first major championship of 2026 continues on Saturday at Augusta National Golf Club with Rory McIlroy well out in front
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Record ODA Cuts: Top Donors Slash Aid As Global Health Risks Grow
Preliminary data from the OECD reveals historic ODA cuts, setting international aid back a decade. Civil society groups warn that the reductions will devastate funding for global health, education and social protection.
Hong Kong animal groups urge HKTVmall boycott over life science experiments
Online retailer facing major backlash after its parent company confirmed tests on pigs’ and sheep’s detached heads and limbs.
When and why political leaders polarise rhetoric: Evidence from Twitter/X
Standard theories of electoral competition predict that politicians should converge toward the centre as elections approach. This column challenges this prediction, using 3.4 million tweets from 367 political leaders across 21 Western democracies. Rhetorical polarisation between populist and non-populist leaders rises sharply in the two quarters before an election and reverts to average levels once it is over. Both groups adopt a more emotionally direct communication style as elections near, but they increasingly talk about different topics. The findings suggest that social media turns electoral campaigns into an engine of political polarisation.
Judge strikes down DEC regulation over definition of 'freshwater wetland'
Business groups and landowners argued the rules would make it much harder to get new development projects off the ground like housing.
Goodhue County health officials create action plan to address community issues
Goodhue County health officials will be working alongside community partners to promote crisis resources, expand peer-led support groups and increase provider access for mental health.
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 9 #563
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Monkey business: Small fleet keeps getting violations for handling lab animals
JKL Secure Freight's been getting in trouble with the USDA -- and an animal-rights groups -- over its handling of monkeys for science experiments. A look at the fleet's roadside-inspection history doesn't inspire much confidence either.
Gov DeSantis: ‘Political and cultural bonds’ with parts of Europe have ‘eroded’
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis discusses his new law allowing the state to designate groups as terrorist organizations and criticizes several European countries over their immigration policies on ‘Hannity.’
Google Brings Vertical Tabs and Improved Reading Mode to Chrome
Google today updated its Chrome browser with support for vertical tabs, which are displayed in a sidebar instead of at the top of the browser. The tab layout can be changed by right clicking on any Chrome window and choosing the "Show Tabs Vertically" option. Sidebar tabs feature full page titles and make it simple to organize tab groups. Google has also added a new full-page interface for reading mode.
Helping the planet through City Parks’ coastal science program for students in Hallett’s Cove
Here in Queens, and across New York City, some nature-loving middle-schoolers are doing their part through education, recreation and exploration, while
LA business groups unite behind Bass and switch up their playbook
For the first time, the city’s fragmented business interests are coordinating their political efforts.
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 7 #561
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Scientists found a “lost world” of animals that shouldn’t exist yet
A remarkable fossil discovery in southwest China is rewriting the story of how complex animal life began, showing that many key animal groups appeared millions of years earlier than scientists once believed. Dating back over 540 million years, the fossils reveal a surprisingly diverse and advanced ecosystem from the late Ediacaran period—before the famous Cambrian explosion. Among the finds are early relatives of starfish, worm-like creatures, and even ancestors of animals with backbones, suggesting that the roots of modern life were already taking shape.
Singer Ten leaving SM Entertainment but staying with groups NCT and WayV
Singer Ten will leave SM Entertainment but remain as a member of the NCT and WayV. Ten's exclusive contract with SM Entertainment will end on Wednesday, the agency said Monday.
How carbon capture is becoming one of the biggest fights in Louisiana politics
As local opposition grows, industry groups are pushing back with increasing urgency.
Blazers, Thorns, Business Chamber and Performance Groups Urge Council to Kill Ride-Hailing Proposal
The policy, intended to bolster ride-share driver wages, would cap how much a ride-share company could take for each ride.
Cuba begins releasing prisoners under scrutiny of rights groups, U.S. govt
Cuba began releasing prisoners from its jails on Friday just hours after its communist-run government announced a sweeping amnesty coinciding with the most intense pressure campaign applied by the U.S.
K-pop Star Mark Lee Departing Sm Entertainment, Boy Groups Nct 127 and Nct Dream
IMDb, the world's most popular and authoritative source for movie, TV and celebrity content.
Health and government groups spend millions advertising on websites that promote misinformation, sometimes unintentionally
For years, health and government organizations have spent millions of dollars on advertising that appeared on websites that regularly promote health misinformation — financially supporting this growing health threat, sometimes inadvertently.
How gender-affirming care is becoming a political test for top medical groups
The country’s largest organization representing doctors is being pressed by Republican attorneys general on health care for trans youth.
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 3 #557
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
'A considerable gamble' at 'a fragile moment'
Only Tottenham would respond to the current bin fire at the club by turning to a famously incendiary manager to put out the flames. After tens of thousands of supporters lined the streets in an act of unity, the Tottenham board split the fanbase by appointing Roberto de Zerbi. The Italian, known for his high-pressing, attacking football, arrives with a reputation that has already prompted concern from supporter groups and the Tottenham Hotspur Supporters' Trust.