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Penguins organizational outlook heading into free agency

It ended up being a mostly uneventful draft weekend for the Pittsburgh Penguins. They acquired Hendrix Lapierre for draft picks, used some of their stockpile future of picks to get extra 2026 mid-round selections and went about their business of drafting players without many fireworks going down with massive moves. The big landmark for the […]

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Jun 28 • 2:24 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
US Small and Midsize Businesses Poised for Growth, Waiting to Make Significant Moves: 2026 Columbia Bank Business Barometer

Rising expectations for increased productivity, profitability and growth opportunities tempered by near-term uncertainty and volatility

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Jun 28 • 2:14 PM EDT • Business • finance.yahoo.com
Lille reveal Ayyoub Bouaddi stance amid Liverpool interest

Liverpool Face Patient Lille Stance Over Ayyoub Bouaddi TransferLiverpool’s interest in Ayyoub Bouaddi has moved into sharper focus, with AS reporting that Lille are prepared to take a patient appro...

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Jun 28 • 1:25 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
US Small and Midsize Businesses Poised for Growth, Waiting to Make Significant Moves: 2026 Columbia Bank Business Barometer

US small and midsize businesses are poised for growth but are waiting to make significant moves reports the Columbia Bank Business Barometer

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Jun 28 • 1:14 PM EDT • Business • retailbankerinternational.com
Ben Stokes announces retirement

Ben Stokes, the England captain, has stunned the cricket world by announcing his retirement in the middle of one final epic spell of bowling.

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Jun 28 • 11:07 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Heavy Metal Legend Releases New Song Amid 2026 Tour

Nightwish's Floor Jansen is back with a fearless new single.

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Jun 28 • 8:26 AM EDT • Entertainment • parade.com
National City weighs business tax overhaul amid mounting budget pressures

Council to hear proposal June 30. It faces significant opposition from business community.

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Jun 28 • 8:00 AM EDT • Business • sandiegouniontribune.com
Investment in Israeli health tech startups dove 40% in 2025

Data shows that while the global industry saw a resurgence in private funding, investments in Israeli startups hit a five-year low amid geopolitical uncertainty

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Jun 28 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • timesofisrael.com
British restaurants are invading New York City

From fish and chips to fine dining, New York City is in the middle of a British restaurant boom.

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Jun 28 • 6:21 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
Celtics’ Jaylen Brown Drops Blunt Message Amid Trade Rumors

The Boston Celtics have had a busy offseason, and not all of it has been on their terms. Trade speculation surrounding Jaylen Brown has dominated the discourse since the front office reportedly explored moving him as part of a pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo. That deal fell through. The noise did not.Brown has watched the narrative […] The post Celtics’ Jaylen Brown Drops Blunt Message Amid Trade Rumors appeared first on HEAVY.

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Jun 28 • 6:02 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
🥜 Still nutty after 50 years

Center City snack shop Nuts To You marks 50 years in business and looks to TikTok for sustained growth. Plus: Olney update here TK, and we compare Revolutionary history in Philly vs Boston.

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Jun 28 • 6:01 AM EDT • Business • inquirer.com
With time running out, Trump digs in on changing midterm election rules

Fearing a Democratic takeover of Congress, the president has spent months trying to alter how the midterms will be conducted, but obstacles keep cropping up.

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Jun 28 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Kerry loss 'will take a while to get over'

Tyrone midfielder Conn Kilpatrick says the 2-25 to 0-27 All-Ireland SFC quarter-final defeat by Kerry will "take a while to get over".

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Jun 28 • 5:04 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Yankees news: Cole can cope with commonplace stuff

Cole adjusts mid-game; Grisham set to return during homestand; Henry Lalane making waves at Low-A

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Jun 28 • 5:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Spotlight falls on Ocado boss Tim Steiner’s £100m in payouts

Reports claim replacement being lined up for co-founder amid concern over high pay and company’s struggling share price

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Jun 28 • 3:00 AM EDT • Business • theguardian.com
'High-strung' camels race in Australian outback

Camels with "a bit of fire in them" raced in a remote Australian outback town this weekend at an annual event celebrating the desert beasts first imported in the mid-19th century."You would want a little bit of temper, a little bit of fire in them -- a sort of splashy look in the eye," Woodhouse told AFP. "They want to be wary of you a little bit but not, like, aggressive," he added.

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Jun 28 • 1:58 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
South Korea's World Cup Exit Stuns Football, Entertainment Industries

South Koreas World Cup Exit Stuns Football, Entertainment Industries Hong Myung-bos squad finishes third in group; entertainment programs face awkward invitations amid lack of inspiring content

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Jun 28 • 1:55 AM EDT • Entertainment • chosun.com
Cubs Minor League Wrap: Jaxon Wiggins rehabs with South Bend

Knoxville and South Bend both win, proving again the class of the Cubs system are the middle two teams.

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Jun 27 • 10:40 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Calls for Radical Reinvention of the Tour de France amid Concerns for Rider Health

New Tour race times and new dates are being argued for over fears of heat-related risks.

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Jun 27 • 7:21 PM EDT • Health • velo.outsideonline.com
Report: Crystal Palace Eye Smart Move for Experienced Arsenal Midfielder

Crystal Palace Eye Christian Norgaard as Arsenal Exit Route OpensPalace Consider Midfield ExperienceCrystal Palace appear ready to offer Christian Norgaard a route out of Arsenal this summer, with Spo...

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Jun 27 • 5:30 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
A Clover Health Director Sold Over 67,000 Company Shares. Here's a Closer Look at the Transaction.

This healthcare technology firm, focused on Medicare Advantage plans, reported a notable insider sale amid muted stock performance.

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Jun 27 • 1:33 PM EDT • Health • finance.yahoo.com
Bill Barr says Todd Blanche isn't 'a toady,' urges senate to confirm Trump's AG pick

Bill Barr argues Todd Blanche's relationship with Trump is a strength, urging Senate Republicans to confirm him as attorney general amid GOP reservations.

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Jun 27 • 11:35 AM EDT • Politics • foxnews.com
Sky Sports: Everton are in the race to sign Serie A midfielder

Everton Transfer News: Mandela Keita Emerges as Midfield TargetEverton continue to search for midfield reinforcements this summer, with Sky Sports reporting that Parma’s Mandela Keita has emerged as...

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Jun 27 • 10:30 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Scalpers Are Already Flipping Steam Machine Reservations On eBay For $2,700–$2,900, Roughly Double Valve’s Price

Reservations for the Steam Machine are listed on eBay for up to $2,899, nearly triple its official price of $1,400, amid widespread scalping efforts

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Jun 27 • 9:16 AM EDT • Technology • wccftech.com
Can Gov. Ferguson heat up WA's cooling economy?

Amid rising concerns over a cooling economy – and criticism of the state's negative business climate – Ferguson is looking for help from Amazon, Boeing and other big employers.

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Jun 27 • 9:00 AM EDT • Business • seattletimes.com
Scientists discover what triggers belly fat as we age

Aging may trigger the appearance of specialized stem cells that supercharge the body's ability to create new belly fat. The discovery reveals a potential biological driver of middle-age weight gain and a promising target for future anti-obesity treatments.

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Jun 27 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
The Extremely Online Senate Race Testing Democrats’ Midterm Strategy

In 2026, winning an election might mean winning the most attention online.

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Jun 27 • 7:00 AM EDT • Politics • politico.com
Riding Into 2028: On the Midterms Trail, Andy Beshear Eyes a Bigger Prize

The two-term Democratic governor of deep-red Kentucky, in demand as a surrogate in key 2026 races, talks horses, faith and family politics as he considers a run for the White House.

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Jun 27 • 5:01 AM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Exit statement from midfielder baffles Real Madrid fans

Real Madrid confirmed what had been an open secret on Friday, that Dani Ceballos would be leaving. The 29-year-old has been a bit-part player for some time, but continued reports about his exit seemed...

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Jun 27 • 4:45 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Trump-endorsed candidates hold nearly perfect record in GOP primaries

No modern president wields party influence the way Donald Trump does, experts say, but it could be costly to his party in the 2026 midterms.

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Jun 27 • 3:01 AM EDT • Politics • usatoday.com
Trump’s midterm message: Democrats are ‘Godless communists’
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Jun 26 • 11:33 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Trump revives ‘communist’ warning as midterm campaign message
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Jun 26 • 11:05 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Trump news at a glance: president tests out a new ‘red scare’ ahead of midterms

Republican strategists believe rise of Mamdani could present opportunity to tag Democrats with most extreme views of the left – key US politics stories from Friday 26 June

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Jun 26 • 9:00 PM EDT • Politics • theguardian.com
ICE mask ban takes effect in N.Y. amid dueling lawsuits and a race for governor

The Trump administration’s lawsuit argues that states do not have the authority to regulate the federal government’s operations.

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Jun 26 • 8:46 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
‘Pineapple Days’ sidewalk sale draws business to Lincoln stores amid downtown construction

Cinnamon Dokken, owner of A Novel Idea Bookstore, said it was named for the Lemon Days sidewalk sales that many businesses around Lincoln used to do, instead using pineapples.

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Jun 26 • 7:15 PM EDT • Business • 1011now.com
Sarah Ferguson visited Epstein in jail twice amid email exchanges: Report

A new report suggests that Sarah Ferguson visited Jeffrey Epstein twice in 2009 during his first prison sentence in Florida.

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Jun 26 • 6:52 PM EDT • Entertainment • centraloregondaily.com
Trump ramps up attacks on Democrats as ‘godless Communists’ ahead of November’s midterms

President Donald Trump on Friday seized on the electoral success of several democratic socialist candidates to ramp up his attacks on the Democratic Party, claiming it was being taken over by “godless Communists” who pose an existential threat to the nation.

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Jun 26 • 6:35 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Tom Hardy is dropping a rap album amid his uncertain future on 'MobLand'

As Tom Hardy navigates rumors of his 'MobLand' exit, he's stepped into the studio to release his first rap album.

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Jun 26 • 5:38 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Trump tries out midterms message that focuses on ‘communists’

Trump warned an audience of religious conservatives that communism is spreading in the U.S., a new theme for his midterm campaign.

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Jun 26 • 4:05 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Old Lord and Taylor building transforms into food and entertainment destination in Midtown

The former Lord and Taylor building has reopened and now offers restaurants, bars and curated eateries.

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Jun 26 • 4:04 PM EDT • Entertainment • abc7ny.com
Rep. Stansbury: Billionaire Leon Black walked out in the middle of Epstein interview
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Jun 26 • 3:42 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Live Results: Louisiana midterm primary runoffs

Louisiana Republicans will nominate a candidate for U.S. Senate in a primary runoff Saturday, six weeks after denying Republican U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy a shot at a third term.

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Jun 26 • 3:07 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
Amid lingering disparities, Tulsa business leaders explore how to increase diversity

Tulsa business leaders discussed how workplace diversity and inclusion can strengthen economic growth during the Tulsa Regional Chamber's State of Inclusion event.

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Jun 26 • 12:36 PM EDT • Business • journalrecord.com
Intel’s chip business shows signs of life after years of struggle

Not long ago, Intel was seen as Silicon Valley’s fallen icon. Now it is showing signs of a turnaround amid the AI boom.

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Jun 26 • 11:31 AM EDT • Business • seattletimes.com
Bunnie Xo says she told ‘so many girls’ to DM Jelly Roll amid divorce: 'Good luck with that'

Bunnie Xo said that she told 'so many girls' to DM Jelly Roll amid their divorce. The country star filed for divorce from the podcaster in May after nearly 10 years of marriage.

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Jun 26 • 11:26 AM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Air-conditioning becomes political amid sweltering Europe heatwave

Much of western Europe baked under a “heat dome” as temperatures soar. Authorities warn that the extreme conditions could endanger lives across countries, many of which have limited air conditioning, a topic of which has left the people of Paris divided.

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Jun 26 • 11:02 AM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
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Texas Democrats meet for convention amid questions about party unity

Democrats see state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, as the best opportunity to flip the long-held Republican U.S. Senate seat and want to see how he will win over Black voters.

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Jun 26 • 9:54 AM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
Past participants are now the leaders of MIT’s dynaMIT Club

The MIT student club dynaMIT teaches STEM principles to local middle school students for free every summer. They use fun, innovative experiments to inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers.

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Jun 26 • 9:00 AM EDT • Science • news.mit.edu
‘Faces Of Death’ To Close Edinburgh’s Midnight Madness Strand

'Faces Of Death' will be the closing title of Edinburgh’s Midnight Madness strand.

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Jun 26 • 9:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • deadline.com
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system

WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.

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Jun 26 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • who.int
Louisville coaches can't afford to stay sidelined amid NCAA changes

The NCAA has brought college sports into instability, which is why coaches like Louisville's Jeff Brohm and Pat Kelsey have to be activists.

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Jun 26 • 5:11 AM EDT • Sports • courier-journal.com
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Cabo Verde Is a Breakout Star of the World Cup. So Is the Family-Owned Business That Designed Its Jerseys

After more than three decades manufacturing apparel, Capelli Sport co-founder and CEO George Altirs found his company’s biggest billboard yet—3,500 miles away from his midtown Manhattan office.

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Jun 26 • 5:00 AM EDT • Business • inc.com
Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms

Could that spell trouble for Ashley Moody as she faces Alex Vindman?

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Jun 26 • 4:30 AM EDT • Politics • floridapolitics.com
Opinion | Don't apply politics to scientific research

Under recently proposed rules, federal grants could be terminated midstream for reasons having little to do with science or merit.

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Jun 26 • 4:00 AM EDT • Politics • bostonglobe.com
Vance dismisses Watergate scandal, says ‘deep state’ went after Nixon

The vice president said he admired Nixon and drew parallels between the past president, who resigned amid pressure in 1974, and Trump today.

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Jun 25 • 9:06 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Video of Tom Sandoval pushing ex's dad into firepit surfaces

Bravo alum Tom Sandoval is in the midst of another controversy after video surfaced showing an altercation with his ex and her father.

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Jun 25 • 7:37 PM EDT • Entertainment • centraloregondaily.com
Dolly Parton makes surprise appearance — complete with a joke

Dolly Parton just made a surprise appearance, complete with her trademark humor, amid health issues.

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Jun 25 • 6:58 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Less Islamism, More Nationalism

In Iran and across the Middle East, the bond between religion and politics is getting weaker.

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Jun 25 • 5:05 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Making Our Own Luck

We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.

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Jun 25 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • goodscience.substack.com
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