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Snowmass Mountain reopened for National Disabled Veterans Winter Sports Clinic
Participants of the 40th annual National Disabled Veteran Winter Sports Clinic were able to experience Snowmass last week despite the mountain having closed early for the season Sunday, April 5.
Swimming becomes the first major Olympic sport to lift restrictions on Russian athletes
The governing body for international swimming and aquatic sports will allow athletes from Russia to compete without restrictions and with their national flag and anthem.
‘Space worms’ are en route to the International Space Station
Studying these nematodes will help scientists plan for a long-term human presence on the moon.
Contra Costa Health nurses demand Board of Supervisors stop drastic budget and service cuts
Registered nurses with the California Nurses Association will speak out at the Contra Costa Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday, April 14, to demand that the board stop drastic budget cuts to save the Contra Costa Health system, maintain services, and retain nurses in the wake of the significant projected financial losses created by H.R. 1.
Baylor S3E hosts, places 3rd at National Collegiate Sports Sales Championship
It may just be the biggest stage in sports sales for a student. Representing their schools at an NBA or NHL arena, students step up to the table with industry professionals (who may someday be their colleagues) and make their pitch. If it feels like an NCAA competition, that’s intentional -- and it’
Utah Royals FC Welcomes Dave Tenney as Senior Director of Player Health and Performance
HERRIMAN, Utah (Monday, April 13, 2026) – Utah Soccer President of Soccer Operations Jason Kreis - overseeing Utah Royals FC (National Women’s Soccer League), Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer), Real Monarchs (MLS NEXT Pro) and the RSL Academy - has named highly-respected sports medicine veteran Dave Tenney as the
International Collaboration Helps Pinpoint Universe’s Expansion Rate
The universe is expanding, but the exact speed at which it’s doing so – a figure known as the “Hubble constant” – remains a mystery. Now, an international collaboration of astronomers has developed a framework that incorporates a range of methods into one analysis, to produce a more precise measurement.
Francisco G. Cigarroa named International Citizen of the Year - UT Health San Antonio
Francisco G. Cigarroa, MD, has been named the 2026 International Citizen of the Year by the World Affairs Council of San Antonio.
Trump administration agrees to keep Pride flag at Stonewall National Monument
The Trump administration agreed in a court settlement on Monday to keep the Pride flag at the Stonewall National Monument.
Why Young People Are Poised to Save Movie Theaters, In-Person Entertainment
A National Research Group study finds that Gen Z and Gen Alpha audiences express the highest interest in leaving their homes for movies, entertainment
Public Health Actions for Extreme Heat Protections
The National Association of Community Health Centers (NACHC), National Network of Public Health Institutes (NNPHI), American Public Health Association (APHA), and ecoAmerica are partnering to offer the Public Health Actions for Extreme Heat Protections Training.
Air Force Reserve Chief Receives International Award for Global Health Leadership
The Air Force’s International Health Specialist program presented Lt. Gen. John P. Healy, Chief of Air Force Reserve and Commander of Air Force Reserve Command, with its International Health System Award in a ceremony at the Pentagon on April 7.
New ultra-premium foldable released internationally with big launch discounts
Motorola has now started selling its first book-style foldable. Available internationally, the Razr Fold undercuts the Galaxy Z Fold7 and the Pixel 10 Pro Fold with a massive launch discount and several wearable accessories thrown in for good measure.
Gas prices expected to rise again this week, analyst says
The national average for a gallon of gasoline on Monday is $4.12, according to AAA
The Global Supply Of Helium Is Being Disrupted, Impacting A Range Of Critical Industries Including Medicine And Tech Development
Helium may be one of the most underestimated resources when it comes to our international dependence.
ECU Health Medical Center Surgical Intensive Care Unit earns Beacon Award for Excellence
National award from American Association of Critical-Care Nurses recognizes exceptional patient care
Ethan Rii | Notable Leaders in Health Care 2026
Ethan Rii, partner in the national health care group at Ice Miller, is one of Crain's Chicago Notable Leaders in Health Care 2026.
World Aquatics drops restrictions against Russian athletes
The governing body for international swimming and aquatic sports will allow athletes from Russia to compete without restrictions and with their national flag and anthem.
Riding momentum from sweep, Nationals ready for Pirates, Paul Skenes
Fresh off their first three-game road sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers in 20 years, the Washington Nationals will try to keep their momentum going when they face the Pirates and ace Paul Skenes on Monday night in the first contest of a four-game series in Pittsburgh.
Following the Success of Artemis II, Scientists Will Shape What Comes Next for Lunar Exploration
NASA plans to launch more lunar missions after the success of Artemis II, signaling a renewed era for lunar exploration and science — and raising questions about what comes next. A National Academies study currently underway will identify key non-polar landing sites for future crewed lunar missions and what science goals could be achieved.
Geography Graduate Students Receive National Science Foundation Award Offers for the 2026 Graduate Research Fellowship Program
Congratulations to our first year graduate students; Danielle Losos, Emily Nagamoto, and Lauren Palermo for receiving award offers from the National Science
Ann Brach Appointed Executive Director of Transportation Research Board at National Academies
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine announced today that Ann Brach has been named the executive director of the Transportation Research Board (TRB).
How information disorder shapes global politics
UC Santa Barbara political scientist Julia Morse studies how information disorder — a media environment where it’s easy to create content and spread false or misleading material — shapes international politics.
Radiology Partners reportedly eyeing international expansion
America’s largest radiology group has purportedly considered making a bid to buy its Australian counterpart, which tallied over $176 million in adjusted earnings last year.
NSF announces 2026 Graduate Research Fellowship Program award offers
The U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) today announced that it has made offers and will award 2,500 Graduate Research Fellowships for the 2026-2027 academic year...
Venezuela hopes to lure back international miners, but it's a risky business
Venezuela's effort to attract foreign investors to develop its gold, iron and bauxite seams has enthusiastic backing from the Trump administration but faces big challenges, including armed groups with deep interests in the chaotic, largely illegal prospecting industry that has developed over the past 20 years, according to nine miners, residents and community activists who spoke to Reuters.
Seneca Falls Park Launches Suffrage & Science Week
Suffrage & Science Week is coming to Seneca Falls! ♀️ Explore the connection between women's rights and the scientific world at the Women's Rights National H...
After Charlie Kirk’s Death, a Fight for the Youth Vote
A fledgling Democratic group and the far-right white nationalist Nick Fuentes seek to make gains on college campuses that have recently been dominated by Turning Point USA.
US intel officials scramble to keep surveillance law running amid Iran war tensions
With just days until a powerful surveillance law lapses, US national security officials are scrambling to prepare for potential blind spots in intelligence collection amid the US’ delicate ceasefire with Iran, current and former officials told CNN.
Rob Marsh to be featured on national TV series 'Next Level CEO'
Rob Marsh, CEO of the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, will be featured on the upcoming season of the business TV series “Next Level CEO.”
After Masters bid falls short, Scottie Scheffler airs Augusta frustration
Scottie Scheffler's quest for a third Masters title came up short, and afterward he voiced a frustration over Augusta National's setup.
Liverpool, the Grand National and the rumbling discord around Merseyside’s biggest sporting day
Those in control of the most powerful sporting institutions stand accused of understanding the cost of everything but the value of nothing
Patient-Provider Discussions on Lung Cancer Screening: Insights From the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS)
Background Lung cancer risk is significantly elevated in individuals with chronic lung diseases (CLDs), including asthma, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis. Despite this, lung cancer screenin...
The Movement Turns Ten. Black Mothers Are Still Fighting. Blood Donors Can Help.
Black Maternal Health Week turns 10. Dr. Monique Rainford on the maternal mortality crisis and how blood donors can help. #BMHW26 #NationalMinorityHealthMonth
Universities Allied for Essential Medicines advocates for affordable health care
While a vial of insulin takes as little as $2 to manufacture, it can cost consumers $250 in the United States. Universities Allied for Essential Medicines, an international advocacy organization that has chapters at universities including UCLA, raised awareness about medication unaffordability during its annual North American conference at the Neuroscience Research Building from April 3 to 5.
The Masters: Rory McIlroy defends title and makes more major history after thrilling one-shot win at Augusta National
SF, California leaders blast Trump for firing Presidio board
State and local leaders condemned the decision to fire all six board members of the Presidio Trust, the federal agency that manages the historic national park.
Brewers expecting 'bad news' after losing Christian Yelich to hamstring injury, dropping 5th straight in sweep by Nationals
Yankees Social Media Spotlight: At Least Jeter’s Happy
Derek Jeter’s Michigan Wolverines won the NCAA Men’s National Championship. Nothing else of note happened this week.
AIPAC may be a new litmus test for Democratic candidates. Leaders say voters' heads are elsewhere.
Last week's Democratic National Committee meeting illustrated a party trying to stay focused on economic issues while grappling with strong, changing opinions on Israel.
Letter: All politics affect our lives
“All politics, including the national and global policies of the United States, affect our lives.”
Comedian Sebastian Maniscalco set for Turning Stone show
Comedian Sebastian Maniscalco will perform April 18, 2026, at Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona as part of his national tour.
Brewers lose Christian Yelich to hamstring injury vs. Nationals
Christian Yelich was off to a strong start at the plate this season before leaving Sunday's game early.
Christian Yelich leaves Brewers' game against Nationals with hamstring tightness
Christian Yelich left the Milwaukee Brewers' game against the Washington Nationals on Sunday with tightness in his left hamstring. It wasn't immediately clear how Yelich got hurt. He was the designated hitter and went 0 for 2, hitting grounders each time.
Brewers score vs Nationals today, live game updates, highlights, lineups
The Brewers will try to avoid being swept by the Nationals on Sunday afternoon at American Family Field.
Times Opinion: Let’s expel toxic right-wing politics from the Hamilton County Board of Education
Within national politics, we are living in a world dominated by a toxic political environment. While that is severely toned down at the local level, it does seep through into one realm: our schools.
Health expert explains link between women's hormones, stress - and what to do about it
In honor of National Stress Awareness Month, health experts are drawing attention to the internal physiological shifts that contribute to rising stress levels in women, specifically menopause and perimenopause.
Black Maternal Health Week highlights disparities, solutions at Hampton Roads conference
Held as part of the national awareness week from April 11 to 17, the conference brought together doctors, nurses, social workers and midwife advocates to address inequities in maternal health care and outcomes.
Hearing aids can seem like a big step. This NYC Ballet principal dancer doesn't regret taking it.
According to the National Institutes of Health, less than a fifth of American adults aged 20 to 69 who could benefit from wearing hearing aids have ever used them.
The Masters 2026 - final round LIVE! Latest updates, highlights, scores as Rory McIlroy chases major victory at Augusta National
Rory McIlroy looks to become first back-to-back winner of The Masters since Tiger Woods; coverage is live from 4.30pm on Sky Sports Golf, with Featured Groups, Featured Holes and extra coverage on Sky Sports+
Masters 2026 final round leaderboard, live updates, how to watch: Rory McIlroy will try to hold on at Augusta National
A slowdown in federal science grants has Vermont researchers worried
Though leaders at the National Institutes of Health say they intend to allocate all the federally assigned dollars, changes in how they do so is disrupting the research of early career scientists.
Brewers ask Brandon Woodruff to salvage series finale vs. Nationals
The Milwaukee Brewers will turn to veteran Brandon Woodruff as they look to avoid a series sweep by the visiting Washington Nationals on Sunday afternoon.
Trey McKenney discusses game-sealing shot in National Championship
At the national championship celebration, Michigan Basketball G Trey McKenney discussed his game-sealing shot vs UConn and how he “blacked out” in the process:
Ira Winderman: Wins up, seed similar, season sideways for Heat
MIAMI — A better record. A similar play-in seed. But at least less drama, so there’s that. A year ago, when assessing a 37-45 season that delivered the Heat to the No. 10 and final play-in seed, the thought was of a net gain in escaping a half season of Jimmy Butler drama. Now, when assessing a record assured of finishing on the plus side of .500, the question is if the gain is tangible, ...
Former ‘Citgo 6’ political prisoner sees ‘karma’ in Maduro ouster, but Venezuelan oil won’t rebound until there’s true regime change
Former 'Citgo Six' captive sees democratic elections as the only way to build international business trust in Venezuela again.
Scottie Scheffler blitzed Augusta National. And then a reporter's question
Scottie Scheffler played his best-ever Masters round on Saturday.
Your wishes, your voice: Ochsner doctors encourage families to plan ahead for National Healthcare Decisions Day
Every year on April 16, National Healthcare Decisions Day serves as a reminder that medical emergencies rarely arrive with warning. When they occur, the decisions surrounding treatment often must be
Denver beats Wisconsin 2-1 for its 11th national title and 3rd in 5 years
Denver's Johnny Hicks continued his stellar play by making 29 saves, just two days after a personal-high 49 against Michigan.
2026 Masters odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions into Round 4 by golf model that nailed 16 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the final round of the Masters 10,000 times and revealed golf picks for Augusta National
Denver Pioneers win 3rd NCAA men's hockey title in 5 years
The Denver Pioneers of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference registered a 2-1 victory over the Wisconsin Badgers to complete the Frozen Four at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday in Las Vegas, the program's third national championship in five years.
Who will win 2026 Masters? Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young on top as Scottie Scheffler leads chase pack
McIlroy's shocking stumble brought several contenders into the mix ahead of Sunday's final round at Augusta National
2026 Masters tee times, pairings: Complete schedule, groups, field for Round 4 on Sunday at Augusta National
The quest to win the first major championship of 2026 continues on Saturday at Augusta National Golf Club with Rory McIlroy well out in front
The Universe is expanding too fast and scientists still can’t explain it
A major international effort has produced an ultra-precise measurement of the Universe’s expansion rate, confirming it’s faster than early-Universe models predict. By linking multiple distance-measuring techniques, scientists ruled out simple errors as the cause of the discrepancy. The persistent “Hubble tension” now looks more real than ever. It could mean our current model of the cosmos is incomplete.
Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy can't stop riding Augusta rollercoaster
Rory McIlroy says he will have to play better on Sunday if he is to defend his Masters title after letting slip a six-shot lead at Augusta National.
2026 Masters final round tee times, how to watch: Can Rory McIlroy win a second straight green jacket at Augusta National?
Local youth science fair winners to compete in Canada-wide fair next month
Hundreds of Grade 5-12 students gathered at the Olympic Oval on Saturday for the final day of the Calgary Youth Science Fair, which named 17 finalists, who will compete in the national fair next month...
Masters 2026: Shane Lowry erupts after hitting a hole-in-one Saturday at Augusta National
It marked the second ace Lowry has made at Augusta National.
Masters 2026: Shane Lowry erupts after hitting a hole-in-one on Saturday at Augusta National
It marked the second ace that Lowry has made at Augusta National.
Takeaways From the First Big Gathering of Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates
The National Action Network convention showcased similarities and some differences in a wide open field of possible contenders.
Federal judges say White House ballroom construction can continue, for now
President Donald Trump has claimed that a building pause poses a risk to national security.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
NASA Science, Cargo Launch Aboard Northrop Grumman CRS-24
NASA is sending more science, technology demonstrations, and crew supplies to the International Space Station following the successful launch of the agency’s
Masters 2026 3rd round leaderboard, live updates: Rory McIlroy carries historic lead into the weekend at Augusta National
Social media erupts after Harris introduces 'mob boss' accent to attack Trump: 'Total cringe'
Kamala Harris impersonated Donald Trump as a mob boss while criticizing his foreign policy at a National Action Network event, sparking online backlash.
St. Mary’s County Students Earn Top Honors At Prince George’s Regional Science Fair, Advance To International Competition
St. Mary’s County students earned three Grand Awards at the Prince George’s Regional Science Fair, with one student advancing to international competition.
Game Preview: Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins, 4/11/2026
Who: Washington Capitals (40-30-9, 89 points, 6th place Metropolitan Division) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (41-22-16, 98 points, 2nd place Metropolitan Division) When: 3:00 p.m. ET How to Watch: National broadcast on ABC and TBS Pens’ Path Ahead: Today is the final home game of the regular season (but not the last home game of the season, now that […]
'Now is the time' for North West 200 debut
North West 200 newcomer Franco Bourne believes the time is right for him to make his international road race debut at the event in May.
Red Sea Military Hub Djibouti’s President Extends 27-Year Rule
Djiboutian President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh won elections by a landslide, extending his 27-year rule of the strategically located nation that’s an international military and maritime hub.
Mesa County health department honors public health workers
Event recognized staff achievements and community partners during National Public Health Week
Masters 2026 3rd round tee times, how to watch: Can Rory McIlroy hold his historic lead at Augusta National on Moving Day?
Rory McIlroy holds a six-shot lead entering the weekend at Augusta National.
Masters 2026: Brooks Koepka's driver was set to the wrong setting
Koepka noticed the error after his round on Thursday at Augusta National.
Quiz: This week in politics
It was another busy week in national politics. Take this quiz to see what you know and what you missed.
Quiz: This week in politics
It was another busy week in national politics. Take this quiz to see what you know and what you missed.
Quiz: This week in politics
It was another busy week in national politics. Take this quiz to see what you know and what you missed.
5 To Watch: The Masters Edition & The Business of the Tournament
Check Out the 5 to Watch Masters Edition Below: This week with “The Sports Professor” Rick Horrow features a special edition with five things to watch at The Masters at Augusta National. Mr. Horrow goes behind the tournament with Amazon.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) Video providing two hours of exclusive live coverage before handing it over […] The post 5 To Watch: The Masters Edition & The Business of the Tournament appeared first on CorpGov.
DC Wrap: Vance heads to Iran talks; Harris 'thinking about' 2028 run
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
Trump administration unveils renderings of its proposed gold-accented arch
Designs for a towering, gold-accented triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery were revealed by the White House on Friday – providing more insight into the latest iteration of President Donald Trump’s desire to mold the physical footprint of Washington, DC, into his own vision.
Update on Proposed Dissolution of SBE Directorate at the National Science Foundation (NSF) -
On Friday, April 3, 2026, it was reported that interim leadership at the National Science Foundation announced during an internal all-staff meeting that they would preemptively start making moves to dissolve the SBE Directorate in [...]
Towanda farm market named national rural small business of the year
The SBA named the family-owned Shores Sisters Farm Market on Golden Mile Road in Towanda as its national rural small business of the year.
URI’s Biomechanics Day event exposes younger students to high-tech science, promotes STEM fields
KINGSTON, R.I. — April 10, 2026 — High school and middle school students from around the state got a hands-on experience with the high-tech equipment used by the University of Rhode Island College of Health Sciences during URI’s annual celebration of National Biomechanics Day in Mackal Field House on April 8. More than 500 students […]
Trump officials unveil designs for president’s controversial 250-foot arch
Military veterans have sued to halt the project, saying it would alter key views of Arlington National Cemetery.
Record ODA Cuts: Top Donors Slash Aid As Global Health Risks Grow
Preliminary data from the OECD reveals historic ODA cuts, setting international aid back a decade. Civil society groups warn that the reductions will devastate funding for global health, education and social protection.
NMSU political science students present at national research conference
New Mexico State University undergraduate students in the Department of Political Science, Public Law and Administration presented their research at this year’s Pi Sigma Alpha National Student...
NMSU political science students present at national research conference
New Mexico State University undergraduate students in the Department of Political Science, Public Law and Administration presented their research at this year’s Pi Sigma Alpha National Student...
18th Annual Hamilton Film Festival Set for July; Accepting Submissions Until May 15
Filmmakers are invited to submit their work to the 18th annual Hamilton New York International Film Festival.
Idaho National Laboratory nuclear science trailer delivers hands-on nuclear science experience to Wyoming
The Idaho National Laboratory is bringing its nuclear science trailer on a two-day tour through Wyoming, kicking off in Laramie on Monday, April 13.
Masters 2026: Robert MacIntyre under fire for lewd gesture in Round 1
MacIntyre stuck up his middle finger — a no-no at Augusta National.
Scheffler, Rose to chase McIlroy with early Masters starts
Top-ranked Scottie Scheffler and England's Justin Rose were set for early starts chasing co-leaders Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns as Friday's second round of the Masters began at Augusta National.Burns, the 54-hole leader at last year's US Open, managed his lowest round in 13 at Augusta National despite the firm greens.