SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " bot " 25,057 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Man Utd frustrated at the Premier League's second-bottom side!
What is happening at Manchester United?A terrible week for the Red Devils. After the 11-v-10 defeat to Manchester City and the loss after leading 2-0 against Brighton in the League Cup, the Mancunians...
4 People Arrested After Newlywed Bride Is Engulfed in Flames During Barbecue on Her Honeymoon
Why politicians should pay more attention to the polls (reprise)
Welcome to the 231st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), a polling newsletter that always welcomes new readers. So please don’t keep TWIP a secret; share it with your friends and colleagues: Share The Week in Polls With all the stories swirling around Reform, JL Partners and political polling, I am finally tearing myself away from talking about the regulation of polling this week - and instead re-running a previous piece reminding us why the solution to problems with polls isn’t simply to ban or ignore them. Rather, we need them to play a vital role in making our politics - and politicians - better. This is followed by summaries of the latest national voting intention polls, seat projections from MRPs and the most recent party leader ratings. Subscribers who pay for the full edition can also read ten insights from the latest polls and analyses, including: A trio of organisations and a pair of professors have been casting their eyes over the Liberal Democrats ahead of the party’s autumn conference; What impact did the summer heatwave have on views on climate change? and Which wins out between chocolate and cheese? If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can read all ten by starting a free trial now: Get FREE 7-day trial For more polling news as it comes in ahead of next week’s edition, you can also follow The Week in Polls on Bluesky. Picking up on my doubt last week about whether or not 35% of British train travellers have tried to order a takeaway for delivery to a railway station or carriage, thank you to reader Iain, who has been in touch to say he has done just that… in India. Another quick pair of updates, this time on the controversies around Reform and polling. Politico has a further scoop - “Farage aide caught in donor sting attended Egypt retreat with JL Partners” - and Ian Dunt has written about the problems with polling too: “Seeing the response of many polling experts in the last few weeks suggests that they are nervous about what is happening and keen to mitigate against it. Seeing the response of journalists, which has been basically non-existent, suggests the precise opposite.” My usual reminder as well: please do hit reply if you’ve spotted a poll, focus group or new piece of poll-based research that you think should be in contention for coverage in a future edition. Thank you! And with that, on with the show. How politicians get public opinion wrong I have written before about the benefits that come from widespread availability of high-quality political polling. We need more polls and more good coverage of polls. However, what I’ve not dug into before is the research into how accurately politicians estimate public opinion on issues. Thankfully we have academic research to tell us. First, the bad news: We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries.1 Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. Walgrave, S., Jansen, A., Sevenans, J., Soontjens, K., Pilet, J.B., Brack, N., Varone, F., Helfer, L., Vliegenthart, R., van der Meer, T., Breunig, C., Bailer, S., Sheffer, L. & Loewen, P.J. (2023a), “Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries”, The Journal of Politics, 85(1): 209-222. The bad news is not quite as bad as that makes it sound because, when asked whether the majority of public opinion was for or against various policies, politicians picked the wrong option ‘only’ 29% of the time. However, this included getting it wrong even when public opinion is far from evenly split on an issue: They do not only get it wrong when the public is divided and hard to read (e.g., when there is a 51%:49% distribution). Seventy percent of the misplacements occur for policies with a relatively clear distribution of at least 60% (dis)agreeing citizens. Moreover, the public scored only slightly worse than politicians, picking the wrong option 2.7 out of 8 times on average, compared with 2.3 times for politicians. Turning to the other measure of accuracy (not which side is in the lead but what the percentage support is for each side), politicians on average were 18 percentage points out in their guesses. Again, this was only slightly better than the public, whose error came in at 21 percentage points.2 Further research, using the same mix of countries, gives a little more comfort about how (in)accurate perceptions are: We show that politicians have a better understanding of public opinion when they think the issue matters to voters. Further, when an issue is personally important to politicians they more accurately estimate their party supporters’ opinions. The results confirm that politicians hold more accurate perceptions of voters’ preferences when they think it is important to do so but not necessarily when the issues actually are important to voters. Butler, C., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K. & Loewen, P.J. (2024), “Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient”, Party Politics: 1–13. Even so, it’s not a good picture. The remedy for this? Politicians should spend more time reading the polls. So forward this newsletter to someone you know… Share For a more general argument against banning polls, see my 2024 piece. Is “Let Bartlet Be Bartlet” good advice or not? The latest episode of my Political Fictions podcast heads across the Atlantic for a dip into one of the political TV classics: Mark and Cory talk about a giant of American political drama for the first time this week, as they tackle The West Wing. They talk about Let Bartlet Be Bartlet, the nineteenth episode of series one. In it, Mark wonders if The West Wing is actually the epitome of the “Boris Johnson school of politics”, Cory outmanoeuvres Mark into confirming we will record a Christmas Special about Love, Actually and they debate whether the central message of this episode has been misunderstood. Cory’s email newsletter is Paperback Rioter and Mark has a family of email newsletters. Subscribe to our newsletter for some additional bonus content and to get alerted whenever a new episode comes out. Our theme tune is “Monkeys Spinning Monkeys” by Kevin MacLeod/incompetech.com and licensed under the Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License. You can also listen to our episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the web or YouTube. Elsewhere from me… [ A Lord's Eye View How to fix the problem of money in our politics Welcome to my latest update on work in the House of Lords. This time I am taking a look at how our political system is regulated, and the protections we need to keep democracy safe from becoming simply a contest to see who has the biggest bank account… Read more 5 days ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Mark Pack ](https://lordseyeview.substack.com/p/how-to-fix-the-problem-of-money-in?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1269283) If you spot a factual error… Borrowing an idea from Stuart Ritchie and others, if you spot a factual error in an edition of this newsletter, I will give you a free 12-month subscription to the paid-for version (or an extra 12 months on your existing one). Factual errors qualify, but grammatical errors or disagreements over interpretation do not, and my decision is final. Messages about both of those are always welcome, though. Voting intention and leadership ratings Here are the latest voting intention polls from different pollsters. It is all pretty static at the moment, with a small and consistent Labour lead in nearly all the polls. The table is also online here, along with explanations about what is included. It is updated regularly throughout the week as new polls are released. Next are the seat projections from MRPs, also sorted by fieldwork dates, listing those which are based on dedicated fieldwork (rather than models based on averages of other polls). Because such MRPs are published infrequently, some of the entries below are quite old. Finally, here is a summary of leadership ratings, with a graph from PollCheck: Detailed numbers from the latest polls are online here, and both that and the graph are updated regularly throughout the week as new data comes out. For historical figures on both voting intention and leader approval stretching back to the 1930s, including Parliamentary by-election polls, see PollBase. Catch up on the previous two editions [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ A crisis point for political polling Sep 13 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Extra questions about the polls in Reform’s funding scandal Sep 6 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) My privacy policy and other legal information are available here. Links to purchase books or other items are usually affiliate links which pay a commission for each sale. Quotes from social media messages are occasionally lightly edited for punctuation and clarity. If you are subscribed to other email lists of mine, please note that unsubscribing from this one will not automatically remove you from the others. If you wish to be removed from all my lists, simply reply to this email to let me know. A quintet of Lib Dem polling analyses, and 9 other polling insights you shouldn’t miss The following ten findings from the most recent polls and analyses are only for subscribers who pay for the full edition, but you can sign up for a free trial to read them straight away. Ahead of the start of Liberal Democrat conference, we have a trio of organisations and a pair of professors with pieces out about Ed Davey’s party:
The Santa Barbara Botanic Garden is Burning Plants
Meet the new fire scientist finding native species that withstand flames.
GOP's Bruce Blakeman admits it's 'surreal' his ex married Paul McCartney — as he reveals one thing he and ex-Beatle don't talk about
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Inactive Lists for Both Teams
Who will be sitting this one out?
Analysis: Eagles unlucky to not gain win
This was a good test for boss Pierre Sage, with the Eagles playing on Thursday in the Europa League and having three days less preparation time than Leeds. Crystal Palace created the first chance of the match, only for Quinten Timber to fire over from 25 yards, before Adam Wharton and Tyrick Mitchell had their only other chances of note in the first half, with both strikes deflected and easily dealt with. Palace had conceded a late goal to lose 3-2 to Ipswich Town last weekend and it would have been harsh on them if something similar had happened here.
U.S.-China gastrodiplomacy: Despite political tension, fast food chains from both countries gain popularity in each other’s territory
Mixue, one of the world’s largest fast-food chains with more than 53,000 locations, opened its first three U.S. stores in December.
Nicolas Cage, 62, Reveals Striking White Hair and Beard Transformation With Wife Riko Shibata, 31
Barbara Crampton Will Face THE KENTUCKY GOBLINS In New Festive Found-Footage Creature Feature
She's taken on zombies, killer robots, cursed puppets, and a whole lot more, but now genre icon and Fango fave Barbara Crampton will face her trickiest foe yet with a starring role in The Kentucky Gob...
Amb. Waltz on whether Trump and Xi will reach deal on A.I.: ‘With President Trump, I always see the opportunity’
🚨 Fulham-Manchester United XIs: Gonzalo starts; Andrey Santos benched
Fulham and Manchester United face off in the Premier League in a blockbuster clash between Arbeloa and Carrick. Here is how both teams line up for the match...FULHAM XIMANCHESTER UNITED XIThis article...
Amb. Waltz on if Iran war could extend until 2029: ‘I wouldn’t necessarily put a timeline on it’
Scientists tested whether pets really make us happier: the answer is surprising - Futura-Sciences
Pets are often described as good for both mental and physical health, helping ease loneliness and support emotional well-being. But a new study suggests the picture is more complicated than simply owning a dog, cat, or another companion animal. Researchers at the University of Basel in Switzerland found little evidence...
This Landmark '70s Western Miniseries Everyone's Forgotten About Was Based On A Beloved Book
MS NOW, CNN and Politico say their journalists were denied access to White House after Trump ban
Reporters from CNN, MS NOW and Politico have been denied access to the White House. Reporters from the two cable networks both went live to report they’d been barred following
Justin Timberlake and Jessica Biel’s Marriage in a ‘Precarious Position’ Amid His Recent Outburst
'They didn't want me, I didn't want them:' Florida's Jon Sumrall says he had no interest in Auburn job after Gators' win over Tigers
‘Can’t Pour From an Empty Cup’: New Virtual Health Service Supports Women Through Major Life Changes
Serie A official line-ups: Frosinone vs. Como
Frosinone welcome Como to the Stadio Benito Stirpe on Sunday afternoon, as both teams look to extend their good start to the campaign.It kicks off at the Stadio Benito Stirpe at 14.00 UK time (15.00 C...
Strawberries vs. Cherries: Which Is Better for Blood Sugar?
Both strawberries and cherries are good snacks to have in your refrigerator if you’re trying to work on blood sugar control. But one may be slightly better than the other.
📸 Marseille v PSG: the biggest taunts of the decade!
All fair game. There are victories that stay in the memory... and the taunts that come with them.From Neymar to Payet, not to mention the community managers of both clubs, here’s a look back at a de...
ACC football power rankings after Week 3
Week 3 was a chaotic one in the ACC, with the Virginia Cavaliers and Louisville Cardinals both losing. Here are the updated power rankings
7 Years Ago Today: Sylvester Stallone Released One Of The Worst Legacy Sequels In Theaters
‘Voters are like, No thanks’: Trump’s tariffs fall flat with the working class
It’s become an article of faith for trade hardliners in both parties that a protectionist agenda is a guaranteed pathway to building support among working-class voters. But now that President Donald Trump is testing that theory in practice, it is largely flopping on the campaign trail.
Texas candidate's racist post shows what's wrong with politics
The bigoted Bo French is running for railroad commissioner. His racist social media post drew scathing condemnation, though not from Gov. Greg Abbott or the ethically bankrupt Senate nominee Ken Paxton.
Fiorentina vs Napoli
All eyes are on the Artemio Franchi in Sunday’s early Serie A kick-off, as Fiorentina vs Napoli contest what promises to be an important game for both teams.Neither have started the season in partic...
I taught my daughter to prioritize purpose. Now I question the cost.
I modeled a life of service for my daughter. I'm proud of her, but I worry about the financial and personal costs we both face.
Fast food from the US and China catches on in both countries
China and the United States are divided on many issues, from tariffs to Taiwan.
Scotland must show more belief
Evie Gallagher says Scotland must believe they belong amongst the world's best if they are to compete against the top international sides. The number eight scored both of Scotland's tries against New Zealand but the Black Ferns were a class apart as they ran in 10 tries for a 66-14 victory at Hive Stadium. It was a second straight defeat for the Scots in the WXV Global Series following last weekend's defeat to Canada.
Maringá seal second win in the Série C final stage
Maringá defeated Botafogo-PB and claimed its second win in the final stage of Série CCredits: Fernando Teramatsu / MFCMaringá secured its second win in the final stage of Série C this Saturday (19...
State settles infant formula contamination lawsuit, more Health Headlines
Colorado is set to receive nearly $2 million from Abbott Laboratories after settling nationwide allegations that the company misrepresented the safety of powdered infant formula purchased with state and federal
Misery Index: NC State's all-time collapse brings up questions about Dave Doeren's job security
Biljon has ambitions to coach at top level
ROTHERHAM director of rugby Harvey Biljon believes he’s shown he has what it takes to coach at the very top level after an extraordinary last four years has seen him win three different leagues. ■By LUKE JARMYN The former Wasps and Barbarians scrum-half has overcome both professional and personal adversity to win the Championship title […] The post Biljon has ambitions to coach at top level appeared first on The Rugby Paper .
I reckon Red Bull will definitely give Newcastle wings
NEWCASTLE finally have a squad that could make the Prem competitive from top to bottom. It will likely take them some time to hit full stride given there are 25 new faces at Kingston Park, but their Prem Cup win over Leicester last week showed their direction of travel. Red Bull’s takeover can only be […] The post I reckon Red Bull will definitely give Newcastle wings appeared first on The Rugby Paper .
Ed Sheeran weeps on stage, says Israel's actions in Gaza 'unjustifiable' in emotional first speech since Macklemore fiasco
California health officials warn of possible measles exposure on Amtrak trains
Possible measles exposure reported at Philadelphia International Airport not related to CHOP case
🚨 Alarm at River and Argentina over injury
River Plate’s match against Huracán is raising alarm both in Núñez and in the Argentina national team, as two injury absences have already been recorded.Thiago Almada came off before the first 10...
Oglebay Park food truck festival draws vendors, activities and entertainment for families
Clemson rallies to beat North Carolina 28-20 after weather delay
Clemson trailed 17-15 with 8:11 left in the game when officials sent both teams to the locker room after lightning was detected.
SEED STEM Festival brings science to life for local children
From building robots to exploring neuroscience, local children got hands-on experience with science, technology, engineering and math Saturday at Aiken’s 41st annual SEED STEM Festival.
Mirassol spoils Tite and Ziyech's Botafogo debuts
It was not a happy debut for Tite in charge of Botafogo.The coach of the Brazilian national team at the 2018 and 2022 World Cups saw Mirassol get the better of his Glorioso this Saturday (20).With the...
Are politicians normal people? New Yorkers weigh in
San Siro 100: the special
19 September 1926 to 19 September 2026. One hundred years of San Siro, one hundred years of history that have impacted both the city of Milano and world football. Inaugurated by a 6-3 derby win for In...
Frankie Muniz’s estranged wife shares message about ‘perspective’ after actor’s ‘rock bottom’ post
The actor said on Friday that the past six weeks were like “a nightmare I’m praying to wake from.”
Frankie Muniz’s estranged wife shares message about ‘perspective’ after actor’s ‘rock bottom’ post
Frankie Muniz and his wife Paige Price filed for divorce earlier this year. They each shared posts about their life stages on Friday.