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NBA play-in: Coby White 3, late LaMelo Ball layup propel Hornets in OT thriller past Heat
White sent the game to OT with a 3 as Kon Knueppel watched from the bench. Then LaMelo Ball redeemed himself with a game-winning layup in the final seconds.
OR gov. vows fight after court says parts of reproductive rights act unconstitutional
Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek is criticizing an oral ruling in Oregon that found the Oregon Reproductive Health Equity Act unconstitutional.
Jump Rope with Bulbasaur in This Limited-Time <em>Pokémon Pokopia</em> Event
A new limited-time in-game event is coming to Pokémon Pokopia, and it’ll have you jumping for joy.
Gov. Spanberger visits the Valley to support business investments, I-81 widening
Gov. Abigail Spanberger made her way to the Shenandoah Valley on Tuesday morning, with stops around Harrisonburg and Rockingham County highlighting major investments, a local business expansion and the kickoff of a long-awaited widening project on Interstate 81.
Businesses fundraising for family after tragic loss
LAKE POINSETT, S.D. (KELO) — An eastern South Dakota community is grieving after a beloved son and brother died unexpectedly over the weekend. But, businesses around Lake Poinsett are steppin…
Small business optimism falls as energy costs rise, NFIB report shows
Small business optimism took a hit last month as energy prices rose, according to the NFIB.
Boone Health, Missouri Heart Center progress toward split
Boone Health withdrew its request for a temporary restraining order against its contracted private cardiology provider.
Nebraska business owners left scrambling as Painted Tree Boutiques ceases operations
Business owners are scrambling to retrieve their items after Painted Tree Boutiques abruptly shut its doors on Tuesday.
Icon Concerts and LiveCo Expand Live Entertainment Footprint With Appointment of Industry-Veteran Jesse Stoll to Newly Created Executive Vice President of Global Touring Role
NASHVILLE, Tenn., April 14, 2026--Icon Concerts and its rapidly growing parent company, LiveCo, creators of the precedent-setting, sold-out SoFi Stadium show with comedians Gabriel Iglesias and Jo Koy, are broadening their wide-ranging footprint with the hiring of live entertainment industry-veteran Jesse Stoll as executive vice president, global touring.
Gorgeous Pixel Art Indie Game Arrives Busted On Xbox Series S
Replaced is scoring very well on PC, but the lower-tier Xbox has a game-breaking crash and incomplete ending
Chargers Daily Links: Tuesday Open Thread
Your source for all Chargers and NFL news from around the web.
What trainers actually think about the 12-3-30 workout
Have we finally unlocked exercise’s biggest secret? Or is this yet another lie perpetrated Big Treadmill?
The real science of Pokémon
The Pokémon franchise, including its recent game Pokémon Pokopia, is inspired by real animals and their ecology. It’s no surprise that so many scientists love to try and “catch ’em all”
Philippine president does jumping jacks to disprove health rumors
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., 68, said the impromptu workout was meant to ease worries about his health as the Southeast Asian nation struggles with fallout from the Iran war.
What are the odds? CMU sports betting class explores statistical, cognitive sides of gambling
In 2018, Ron Yurko was researching sports analytics as a Ph.D. student at Carnegie Mellon University when the Supreme Court legalized sports betting. Suddenly,...
30 Under 30 Europe Entertainment 2026: Mau P, Marisa Abela & Other Breakout Stars To Watch
The future of sports is already here thanks to these young all-stars who are winning on and off the field.
How long does a workout need to be to see health benefits?
Overture Center announces 2026-2027 season
MADISON, Wis. (WKOW) -- The Overture Center unveiled its 2026-2027 season on Monday. The lineup features eight Broadway shows and more than 30 Overture Presents performances.
2026 NFL Draft: Raiders mock draft update
We break down our picks in a new three-round mock draft update for the Las Vegas Raiders ahead of the 2026 NFL draft.
Bethel conference highlights how ‘better science occurs’ with local knowledge at the table
Researchers and local experts gathered in Bethel in early April to share and compare environmental knowledge at the Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference, particularly across issues facing the Yukon-Kuwkoksim Delta.
New Missouri health care hub aims to better integrate primary, behavioral care
Two Missouri healthcare organizations have collaborated to create a new healthcare center in Jefferson City.
US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks
U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 in early Asian trade on Tuesday as traders balanced heightened supply risks linked to a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with reports that Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad.
Gateway to Science is all in on space
The North Dakota Gateway to Science is all in on space exploration and doing what it can to promote STEM education and future Artemis missions.
‘Don’t Let Ticks Stick’: Alexandria health officials want you to be on lookout for bloodsuckers
Alexandria Health Department officials encouraged residents to check for ticks, which can spread Lyme disease and alpha-gal syndrome if not quickly removed.
Overwatch's Next Season Looks Dope Except For One Thing
Season 2 adds Sierra to the roster, but also gives some spotlight to Soldier: 76
Sharks Mic Check: Trailer Park Sports Network
Brodie Brazil gives Will Stephens from Trailer Park Sports Network a tour of SAP Center during his first visit to the Tank.
Two Pitt Materials Science Students Receive Ellwood Scholarships
University of Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering students Margo Levenson and Koh Bauman have received Ellwood Metallurgy Scholarships, which include a paid summer internship. Ellwood, a family-owned metals manufacturer, offers the scholarship to high-caliber, third-year college students studying metallurgy.Levenson, a Pittsburgh native who...
Breakout Bras Builds Its Business On Personal Service...And A Perfect Fit
Melissa Thomason's 'Breakout Bras' in Greenville offers a rare personal bra fitting experience, helping women find comfort and confidence.
Conagra CEO Connolly is out after 60% stock slide
The Chicago-based company said today that CEO Sean Connolly will step down at the end of next month and be replaced by consumer goods veteran John Brase, on June 1.
Last Of Us Team Believed Crunch Necessary For Games At Its ‘Level’
The team is reportedly crunching again for Intergalactic: The Heretic Prophet
Speedrunner Breaks Mario 64 Record Despite Feeling 'Cooked'
Suigi shaves seconds off his own record, but reckons it could still be minutes shorter
Smart Adhesive Is Key to Crease-Free Foldable iPhone Display
Advances in optically clear adhesive (OCA) will be a key factor in achieving a near-invisible crease in Apple's first foldable iPhone expected later this year, according to TrendForce. The supply chain intelligence firm outlined the key technologies in a new report on foldable display innovation, explaining that creases form when layers within the display panel fall out of alignment, concentrating stress at the fold and causing micro-cracks or permanent deformation over time.
Studio Behind Umamusume: Pretty Derby Reportedly Facing Insolvency
The Japanese animation studio reported a $3.5 million deficit in its latest financial earnings report, following several years of reported losses
Mystery Tarkov-Marathon Extraction Blend, ‘Fragmentary Order,’ Raises Questions
Fragmentary Order, already being called “Starkov” by many, debuted a seven-minute cinematic trailer yesterday, dropping from new studio Rant Gaming and publisher Cor3,
‘Wheel of Fortune’: Vanna White Parties With Her Kids at Coachella
The longtime co-host, 69, shares two adult children, Nikko and Gigi, with her ex-husband.
CAA Softball Weekly Awards
RICHMOND, Va. – Campbell’s Charlie Montgomery and Katelyn Hubley secured CAA Player and Pitcher of the Week honors, respectively, while Drexel’s Courtney Kols notched Rookie of the Week recognition on Monday.
House passes Ballad Health monopoly appeal, heeds some of the FTC’s advice
The Tennessee House passed a measure ending Ballad Health’s monopoly hospital agreement, adding an amendment to remove anti-competition laws.
UK Charts: Pokémon Pokopia Is Starting To Prove Its Staying Power
But RE Requiem reigns supreme
Jokic stars as Nuggets secure third seed in final game
Nikola Jokic scores 23 points in the first half as the Denver Nuggets beat the San Antonio Spurs 128-118 to claim third seed in the Western Conference.
Bayern planning second summer signing
After joining Bayern Munich on loan from Gambinos Stars Africa in January, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye finally made his debut for the German champions in their 5-0 win over FC St. Pauli on Saturday, coming off...
UberDoc Health Technologies Corp. Announces Upcoming Investor Webinar
Boston, Massachusetts--(Newsfile Corp. - April 13, 2026) - UberDoc Health Technologies Corp. (CSE: APPT) (FSE: 4KL0) ("UberDoc" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that Sean Kearney, Chief Executive Officer, and Dr. Paula Muto, Founder and Chief Medical Advisor, will present an introduction to UberDoc in a live investor webinar taking place on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, at 11:00 AM PT / 2:00 PM ET.The webinar will be hosted by Cory Fleck of the Korelin Report and provide an overview of...
Giannis Antetokounmpo on if he's played his last game with Bucks: 'I don't know'
BUSINESS MONDAY: Spotlight on Konkapot Tree and Timber in Ashley Falls
The full-service operation provides sustainable forest management, custom sawmilling, lumber production, firewood, and tree services.
NBA Awards eligibility tracker: Nikola Jokić qualifies in final game of season; complete list of ineligible players
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles 2 DLC character Shinobu Kocho (Infinity Castle) launches April 17
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles 2 downloadable content character Shinobu Kocho (Infinity Castle) will launch on April 17, publisher Aniplex and developer CyberConnect…
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film 'Hope' to be distributed by U.S. indie powerhouse NEON
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film “Hope” will be distributed in North America by the U.S. indie powerhouse distributor NEON, the movie’s co-producer, Plus M Entertainment, said on Monday.
Jokic to start for Nuggets versus Spurs to quality for award eligibility while Wemby sits
Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic will start for the Denver Nuggets in their regular-season finale against San Antonio on Sunday night for his 65th game played to qualify for NBA awards | 97.3 The Sky
Xavier Zyskowski Commits To Bloomsburg For Soccer
The Official Source of North Allegheny Sports
GameThread: Tigers vs. Marlins, 1:40 p.m.
Detroit Tigers (6-9) vs. Miami Marlins (8-7) Time/Place: 1:40 p.m., Comerica ParkOpponent Site: Fish On FirstMedia: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio NetworkPitching Matchup: LHP Tarik Skubal (1-2, 2.55 ERA) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 0.74 ERA) Lineups MARLINS TIGERS Austin Slater – RF Kevin McGonigle – SS Agustin Ramirez – C Gleyber Torres – 2B Jakob Marsee – CF Colt Keith […]
👑 Muriqi cements Mallorca legacy with brace against Vallecano
There's a new name atop the goalscoring pantheon in the Balearic Islands after Kosovar star Vedat Muriqi continued his scintillating 2025/26 form against Rayo Vallecano. The 31-year-old Prizren-born t...
'Tarkov in Space' Revealed as Fragmentary Order, a Sci-Fi 'Combat Simulator'
Rant Gaming has unveiled Fragmentary Order, a new first-person shooter that many have dubbed Escape from Tarkov in space.
Previewing the 2026 season for Penn State TE Brian Kortovich
Brian Kortovich is a young, talented tight end looking to carve out a role in Penn State’s new-look tight end room.
'Steve Witkoff, Trump's favorite negotiator, boosts his business more than peace'
COLUMN. The billionaire's fortune has risen by 15% since Donald Trump appointed him special envoy for peace, historian Jean-Pierre Filiu observes in his column.
Report: Hideo Kojima's Physint New Casting Details Unearthed, Teasing a Villain
Production on Kojima's return to action-espionage is gearing up, and we've unearthed brand new exclusive Physint casting details.
NH's Business: NH labor force participation
Fred Kocher sits down with Jessica Williams with the NH Fiscal Policy Institute to talk about data from the 2025 labor force participation in New Hampshire.
Metropolitan champion Hurricanes beat Mammoth 4-1 for 6th win in 7 games
The win puts Carolina within one point of securing the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
"Sweet blood doesn't attract mosquitoes: here is what actually attracts them according to science " - Futura-Sciences
At night, you hear the constant buzzing of a mosquito. By morning, there’s a fresh bite right on your cheek. Meanwhile, your partner slept peacefully through the night. During a walk with friends, you’re the one constantly swatting at tiny attacks on your legs, arms, and back. Like tiny vampires...
Falcons projected starting defense with player grades
Projecting the Falcons starting lineup on defense with player grades
Ken Bridges explores Roger Mills in Texas' Civil War efforts, politics
In his latest Texas history column, Ken Bridges explores the life and impact of Roger Mills - from Civil War battles to conflicts in U.S. politics.
Beloved band’s fans heartbroken after key member dies in crash: ‘Fly high my brother!’
He was 67.
Captain Clutch completes comeback, Mariners walkoff Astros 8-7
Mariners comeback from 5-run deficit
Business Bulletin: Hearthstone wins; Jackie Joyner-Kersee benefits; Capes Sokol celebrates
Catch up on local business awards, certifications, and expansions.
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets can clinch No. 3 seed against Spurs
The Denver Nuggets have plenty for which to play when they visit the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday in the teams' regular-season finale.
Female students, leaders gather for Business of Her conference
More than 200 students and other female leaders gatehred at McKenna Hall for the Business of Her conference.The day was full of panels, breakout sessions, insp
Saturday Sports: The first Watertown girls’ flag football game and more
Here’s a recap of your North Country sports this Saturday.
China's K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of one of the group's biggest fan bases comes as no surprise. In fact, just the opposite would have…
Mid-Missouri event offers free health services, brake light repairs and meals
Tallgrass Collective hosted a free clinic offering health services, vehicle brake light repairs, food and clothes Saturday from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games starting tonight
Brewers' Double-A affiliate competes in Southern League
Dragon Age: Inquisition Servers Going Offline Later This Month
The online features have outlasted many live-service games, including Bioware’s own Anthem
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
GTA 6 Developer Rockstar Reportedly Hacked, Data Being Ransomed
Well known hacking group, ShinyHunters, claims to have breached the GTA 6 developers cloud servers
How Kodak is trying to turn around its business after teetering on bankruptcy
Photography company Eastman Kodak has seen its fair share of financial struggles, but CEO Jim Continenza is determined to fuel its success.
Burlington Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Inkology Tattoo Studio
Cape Cod's Best Community's Choice Awards nominations are open now! It's time to recognize your favorite local businesses
Today on Pinstripe Alley
Looking to turn the page after the first series loss of the season.
Contract talks planned for key defensive trio at Borussia Dortmund
Sports BILD is reporting that more concrete talks at Borussia Dortmund are planned with Gregor Kobel, Waldemar Anton and Julian Ryerson. However, the popular German tabloid does not provide any furth...
King County confirms measles case in infant; exposure risk in Bellevue and Seattle low
Public Health – Seattle & King County is warning of potential measles exposures in Bellevue, northeast Seattle, and on public transit after confirming a case in
Masters 2026: Brooks Koepka's driver was set to the wrong setting
Koepka noticed the error after his round on Thursday at Augusta National.
No refund top customer complaint BBB helps with process of complaints and reviews
For many shoppers in Washington, getting a refund is becoming a bigger headache than the original problem.New data from the Better Business Bureau shows complai
Manipulating Science, Manipulating Us
Four decades ago, I and Gerald Markowitz published an article in the American Journal of Public Health that attracted a fair amount of attention. The article was about the history of the introduction of tetraethyl lead into gasoline in the 1920s. The article detailed the controversy over putting lead, even then a known industrial poison and neurotoxin, into the gasoline that was powering the new automobile, particularly those that were produced by the General Motors Company.
Ex-Bethesda Exec Says The Elder Scrolls 6 Maker Isn't Part Of Something 'Genuine' Or 'Authentic' At Microsoft
Pete Hines is retired but still had harsh words for Microsoft
The pros and cons of switching from Kindle to Kobo e-readers
Some BookTokers have declared they're finally ready to leave the Amazon Kindle ecosystem. But the grass isn't always greener.
Looking for weekend plans? Book fair, Open Streets: West Walnut offer entertainment for all
There are two fun events happening this weekend that we want to tell you about! First, Books and Brews Philly and South Philly bookstore A Novel idea are teaming up for a “Grown-Up Book Fair and Swap” on Sunday afternoon. Then, also on Sunday, we have “Open Streets: West Walnut” which just opened for the spring season. NBC10’s Sheila Watko tells us more about the upcoming events!
Amazon Luna ends support for third-party subscriptions and game purchases
You'll no longer be able to stream games you bought from EA, GOG and Ubisoft through the platform.
A local sports bar and grill is opening doors for inclusion and opportunity
As Autism Awareness Month continues, Wayne’s journey serves as a reminder of the importance of community support and the impact of giving everyone a chance to succeed.
Amazon Luna Removing Paid Games And Offering No Refunds
You have until June 10 to enjoy the games you purchased on the cloud streaming service
Pokémon Champions’ Most-Used Monsters Dominate First Tournament
The more things change the more they stay the same in competitive Pokémon
Cozy RPG Deleted From Steam After Seemingly Ripping Off Tetris
The farming sim was removed from Steam last night by the developers, who cited "insufficient verification during the planning stage of a minigame" as the cause
US states that surprised me after visiting 29 last year
After traveling across the US last year with my husband, a few states really surprised me, like North Dakota, Georgia, Kentucky, and Minnesota.
GlassWorm Campaign Uses Zig Dropper to Infect Multiple Developer IDEs
GlassWorm uses a fake WakaTime VS Code extension to infect IDEs, deploy RATs, and steal data, prompting urgent credential rotation.
From Koch to Adams, history shows rocky starts are common for NYC mayors
Past mayors dealt with budget crises or economic downturns early on.