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Trump Casts Himself as Columbus’s Protector in Pitch to Italian Americans
President Trump sought to inject the Genoese explorer into the current political conversation.
Barry Manilow returns to the stage after six-week hiatus following health break
"I'm back!": Barry Manilow returned to the Las Vegas stage after six weeks away, a summer break while he is navigating his lung cancer recovery.
Barry Manilow returns to the stage after six-week hiatus
"I'm back!": Barry Manilow returned to the Las Vegas stage after six weeks away, a summer break while he is navigating his lung cancer recovery.
Trump Says He Will Import Russian Diesel Fuel Amid High Prices
President Trump said Russia had agreed to ship potentially millions of tons of diesel fuel in the coming months. But Russia has an ongoing ban on exporting diesel.
Netflix’s Summer of Bummer
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Today, I’ve got a guest post from longtime friend of the newsletter, Brandon Katz. I’ve been trying to find time all summer to look at Netflix’s straight-to-streaming film slate, but between a pre-planned trip and Nielsen moving up their streaming data timeline, I’ve been swamped. So I reached out to Brandon, one of my favorite fellow analysts, to write about it. And I feel like he captured the tone and data focus of the newsletter perfectly. You can connect with Brandon on LinkedIn and Twitter. Enjoy! Don’t worry, folks. You’re in safe hands with me. To ease any anxieties about an interloper in ESG’s domain, I’ll start by stealing one of his best framing devices: headlines. Box office flops are covered in the same way the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles eye pizza: with cartoonish insatiability. I would know. I’m a former reporter who wrote nearly identical headlines: Yet, intentionally or not, streaming misses get treated with kids gloves, filtered through a rosy lens: In the last six years, U.S. streaming viewership has become nearly as transparent as the box office, but the data often arrives weeks later, in a number of less intuitive metrics, and with nary an official budget to be found. This plays into the Wall Street-whispering narratives major streamers have been cultivating for years. They get a pass in a way that theatrical studios simply don’t. Subscribe Netflix’s Summer Slate Not a single Netflix original film released between May and August this year opened above 20 million U.S. TV hours, per Nielsen. That benchmark usually serves as the EntStrategyGuy’s floor for a streaming hit on Netflix. None of these films enjoyed a hit-cementing single week of 20-plus million hours during their runs. Netflix’s two best films were true crime docs, Maternal Instinct (16.5 million hours) and The Crash (19.7 million), the best overall week for a film this summer. Great for most other streamers, but not necessarily what we’re used to seeing from Netflix. For an overly-dramatic comparison, Happy Gilmore 2 opened last summer to around 47 million hours (celebrity cameos, baby!). Zooming out, the picture looks even worse. In 2026, Netflix’s five biggest scripted summer films posted the lowest average (28.6 million hours) and median (28.8 million hours) eight-week viewership totals of the past four years. Now, it’s unrealistic and unfair to expect Netflix to deliver a _KPop Demon Hunters-_sized hit every year. But it’s also not ideal to see the size of their hits shrinking over the last few summers. Let’s quickly run through some of the notable summer misses. Jennifer Lopez and Brett Goldstein’s perfectly fine romcom, Office Romance, fell off the charts after 20 million hours in its first two weeks. Top films usually last for four-plus weeks. Starry titles ideally don’t decay that fast either. Homegrown star Millie Bobby Brown couldn’t prevent the snappy Enola Holmes franchise from diminishing returns. At 14.3 million U.S. hours, the third film posted roughly half of what the first two films did in their first two weeks. What’s on Netflix calculated that per-day global views were down nearly 60% from the second movie. The Whisper Man did okay with more than 36 million hours over its first four weeks. But I expected a little more juice from a film featuring Robert De Niro, Michelle Monaghan, and Adam Scott. Kevin Hart’s Ladies First collected just 11.2 million hours total across two weeks. That’s a big miss for one of Netflix’s go-to stars. Plopping into the same bucket are Sunny Sandler’s Don’t Say Good Luck (10.3 million in two weeks) and John Cena’s Little Brother (17.5 million). Meanwhile, English-language originals Color Book (June 19), In the Hand of Dante (June 24) and Heartstopper Forever (July 17) never sniffed Nielsen’s Top 10 at all, despite needing only 2 to 5 million hours to land in the top ten most weeks. (By my count, eleven English-language scripted original films released between May and August did chart). It’s only fair to mention that Swapped (1-May) posted nearly 42 million U.S. hours over five weeks (the longest Netflix original run this summer) and is currently their eighth most-watched English-language film ever worldwide. Remarkably Bright Creatures (37 million, 4 weeks) and Voicemails for Isabelle (27 million, 4 weeks) weren’t bombs either. Still, overall, I think it’s fair to say this was a quieter summer season than we’re used to seeing from the market-leader. You might not realize that given the language commonly used in public analysis. The Twist Despite the starkly black-and-white tone of the coverage, here’s the twist: when many box office bombs arrive on streaming, their viewership looks a whole lot like many of Netflix’s supposedly successful summer releases. Hmm, where have we heard that one before? Masters of the Universe topped out at $65 million stateside against a $170 million budget_._ I’ll admit, Skeletor ripping sleeveless curls as a gym bro and bodyslamming Adam’s co-workers was funny. But, much to the chagrin of my bank account, my laughter doesn’t launch franchises. Yet the He-Man reboot opened to 19.6 million hours (from a Wednesday five-day opening instead of just one weekend), on par with Hoppers on Disney+ (19.4 million). It put up nearly 47 million hours over its first six weeks, bigger than all of Netflix’s summer releases. Pretty darn healthy and likely to land among the 25 most-watched movies on streaming this year. Sticking with Amazon, The Sheep Detectives just barely broke even at the box office with $133 million worldwide (and only $66 million domestic). I never expected cloven-hooved, cud-chewing mammals to be able to bring me to tears. Yet that’s exactly how I found myself at the end of this surprisingly affecting movie (#NoShame). It was likely the unexpected quality in a family-friendly film that powered its streaming over-performance. Sheep Detectives delivered a solid run for Prime video netting 26.2 million hours! How about franchise IP? Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu had the lowest opening ($81 million) and lowest-grossing Disney-era live-action Star Wars film ($178 million domestic). One day before release, its Heat score (19.8%)—audiences who list their interest as a 7/7—fell behind blockbusters Wicked (21%), Superman (23%), Fantastic Four: First Steps (23%), Michael (23%), Toy Story 5 (26%) and Avatar: Fire and Ash (27%), according to Greenlight Analytics. The urgent enthusiasm just wasn’t there. On streaming, Mando opened to weeks of 12.1 million, 6.1 million and 2.7 million hours (21 million total) over its first three frames. Not the numbers Lucasfilm was hoping for nor the numbers of a streaming hit. But they’re in the same vicinity as some Netflix summer releases with $345 million at the global box office to offset a smidgen of the pain. Final Thoughts So why oh why does this nuance gap exist? Four key reasons: Data Literacy: A “$100 million opening” just makes sense. After decades of box office reporting, even casual movie fans are well-versed in the benchmarks of hits and home runs. There’s an immediate shorthand. But “16.5 million” hours doesn’t land nearly as cleanly. Despite leaps of progress, the streaming ratings era is still in its infancy compared to theatrical. The EntStrategyGuy and I met thanks to a late 2010s group chat of data nerds hungry to find a shred of certainty in nebulous streaming performance. I’m not surprised to see “No. 1 on Netflix” still getting misconstrued out in the wild. Timing: By Friday morning, we have the box office’s Thursday night previews totaled, allowing us to better project the weekend’s expectations. From there, ticket sales are reported daily. By Sunday, the film’s fate is usually finalized, at least in terms of public perception. In streaming, Nielsen recently improved its delay to…two weeks. The medium isn’t forced to contend with instant gratification as harshly. Financials: Theatrical film budgets are a mere Google away. Profit and loss is calculated in the cold and unforgiving naked light of day for all to see. But finding the vast majority of streaming exclusive movie budgets requires the forensic investigation skills of a Criminal Minds detective. Also, it’s very difficult to calculate how much revenue/value a straight-to-streaming films provides a streamer. This is why there are so few stories about streaming original movies “losing X amount of money”. On top of that, marketing budgets are far greater for theatrical movies than streaming exclusive movies, which leads to earlier and better awareness. This then translates to a wider pool of potential interest. Narrative Control: Netflix is the only major streaming service to publish weekly first-hand viewership data and annual engagement reports. Naturally, some headlines borrow their first-hand framing**.** Other streamers benefit from their comparative lack of transparency. They may occasionally announce vague performance platitudes such as Apple TV’s Mayday becoming its “biggest film debut on the platform to date over its first 18 days,” and that it ranked No. 1 with left-handed viewers in its first weekend. (Fine, I made up that second one). But, for the most part, they keep first-hand viewership shrouded in mystery to avoid bad press. Especially for outlets that demand multiple articles per day from their writers, it’s an easy (and understandable) way for some reporters to hit their daily article quota by just repeating what the streamers have told them. TL:DR version: Streaming-exclusive movies are asked to do different things than theatrical movies, but that doesn’t mean they should escape judgment. Both still need to draw enough eyeballs to justify their cost within the proper performance contexts. The more cleanly we can inject a little nuance into streaming analysis, the better we’ll understand the audience and content trends that drive this industry. And that’s what all of this is really about: knowing what audiences actually want! Brandon Katz is the Director of Insights & Content Strategy at Greenlight Analytics where he focuses on evaluating the ever-fluid media landscape to unearth understanding, opportunity and value. Greenlight Analytics is the entertainment intelligence consulting company redefining how Hollywood finds, understands, and activates audiences. Prior to joining Greenlight Analytics, he served as the senior entertainment industry strategist at Parrot Analytics, and as a full-time entertainment industry reporter covering the Xs and Os of Hollywood, most notably with TheWrap and the Observer.
Some G.O.P. Lawmakers Pan Hegseth’s Plan to Stream Execution of Fort Hood Shooter
Some G.O.P. members of Congress said that broadcasting the execution of the Fort Hood shooter was inappropriate, though others gleefully applauded it.
Get used to multi-party politics, it’s here to stay
The prime minister’s promise on electoral reform could entrench the complex fights between five, even six parties
Meharry Medical College’s G.O.A.L.S. Celebrates Five Years of Inspiring Middle School Students Through Hands-On Science and Health Exploration
Nashville, Tenn. – For five years, Meharry Medical College has been planting seeds of possibility in young minds through G.O.A.L.S.—Go Out and Love Science—an immersive, hands-on experience designed to introduce middle school students to science, medicine, dentistry and health-related careers. Recently, nearly 200 sixth, seventh and eighth graders from Haynes Middle School came to Meharry’s
Is Going to an Office Really Better for Your Health Than Remote Work? What the Research Shows
Six years after the pandemic, the debate between remote work and returning to the office remains heated. Which is healthier? Here’s what experts think.
How two corporate HR veterans launched a pumpkin display business
Rebecca Paxton, the cofounder of a Dallas pumpkin-display business, shares how she left her Fortune 100 job and scaled My Front Porch to six figures.
Meet the Teen Athlete Who Overcame a Major Health Curveball
After developing an unprecedented and progressive spinal curvature, known, 10-year-old Macie Perna feared her love for playing softball may be lost forever. But, a life-changing operation at Shriners Children's Philadelphia called Vertebral Body Tethering, or VBT, hit those fears out of the park. Just six weeks later, Perna was back on the field stronger than ever before. Now, at 16, she has no restrictions and big dreams. Macie and her mother Michelle join TODAY's Jenna Bush Hager and Sheinelle Jones to talk about her health journey and her role as a Shriners Children's International Patient Ambassador. She even gets a surprise from her favorite college athlete! (Sponsored by Shriners Children's)
Braves Minor League Recap: Isaiah Drake Records a Hit
(1-4) Glendale Desert Dogs 2, (2-3) Peoria Javelinas 10 box score It was another bad day for the Glendale team all around. They have been struggling to get any sort of good play from the team. and after allowing six runs in the second inning of this game it was a quick decline to a […]
In brief: 'Stick' season 2 trailer and more
Bill Murray stars in the official trailer for A Course Called Ireland. The six-part documentary series premieres on Paramount+ on Oct. 25. The show follows Murray and his friends as they travel across the island to explore Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland's best fairways ...The Die Hard films are getting a brand-new home media release. All five of the movies will be released on physical media in 4K Ultra HD on Dec. 1. Bruce Willis stars as John McClane in all of the Die Hard films. The original movie finds the New York City policeman taking on terrorists after he flies to Los Angeles to be with his estranged wife and two children on Christmas ... TNCMS.AdManager.render({region: 'fixed-big-ad-top-asset', slot: 1, fold: "above"}); The trailer for Stick season 2 is here. Owen Wilson stars as the talented golfer who strives for second chance in the sophomore season. Peter Dager, Timothy Olyphant, Rhea Seehorn, Marc Maron, John Higgins and Billy Zane also make up the cast of the new season. The Apple TV series premieres its first two episodes on Nov. 4. A new episode drops weekly every Wednesday that follows until the season finale airs on Dec. 30 ...Copyright © 2026, ABC Audio. All rights reserved. Thank you for reading kmaland.comAt KMA, we attempt to be accurate in our reporting. If you see a typo or mistake in a story, please contact us by emailing kmaradio@kmaland.com.
Meet the three inspiring speakers for the Power of Fearless event
The Business Record’s Fearless initiative started with a goal to empower Iowa women to succeed in work and life. In the six years since our launch, we’ve seen the true power of Fearless. On Oct. 22, the Business Record will celebrate the Power of Fearless at our annual event. Event attendees will be active participants…
Mexican Mafia suspects charged with shaking down L.A. County business
The FBI said six people were arrested Wednesday for allegedly extorting money from a business in Pomona and ordering the shooting of a man who owned a debt to gangsters affiliated with the Mexican Mafia.
Why Weight Lifting Is Good for Your Heart
Strength training isn’t just for muscle and bone health — it’s also surprisingly good cardio.
How Trump’s Revenge Campaign Descended Into Turmoil
The president’s allies have sought to prove a “grand conspiracy” through a sprawling Justice Department inquiry. It has buckled under staffing shake-ups, internal disputes and trouble finding evidence.
Opinion | Screens Are Not the Problem
If we make screens the villain, then we let the people who control children’s health care — Congress, insurers and health systems — off the hook for their failures.
Your next business might last six months. That can be enough.
"A business can support you between jobs, give you experience or show you that a line of work is not the life you want," writes Tom Lahat, co-founder and CXO of Tailor Brands. "Closing it does not erase that value."
Arc Raiders Jumps to Six-Month High Player Count With 2.0 Update and Free Weekend
Embark Studios has put in a decent amount of work maintaining and developing Arc Raiders in recent months, with the company recently announcing an upcoming co-op mode slated to launch into testing on October 13 while it continues to iterate on its anti-cheat processes and detection methods. In...
5 Key Moments From Hostile Michigan Senate Debate Between El-Sayed and Rogers
Slashing personal attacks dominated the first televised face-off between Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for Senate, and former Representative Mike Rogers, his Republican rival.
Arlington County Sues to Block Trump’s Triumphal Arch
The county is home to Arlington National Cemetery, the military gravesite that is central to the legal battle over the planned arch.
Video: Opinion | How TikTok Warps Our Politics
What are the political consequences of the era of video? TikTok is overwhelming our world with emotional appeals that print media can’t capture, according to the Times of London columnist James Marriott, and it’s making us more mystical, tribal and autocratic.
Starbucks describes talk of possible Chipotle takeover as ‘rumors’
Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol, who took over the company in September 2024, previously served as the head of Chipotle for six years.
Phantom Blade Zero hands-on preview
Six hours with Phantom Blade Zero gave us a deep look at its combat, weapons, exploration, story, and PC performance ahead of release.
How Trump Has Alienated Republican Voters
Plus, a big debate night in Senate battlegrounds.
‘Animals’ Review: The Politician’s Dilemma
Ben Affleck plays a mayoral candidate who’s having a very bad day in this fizz-free political thriller.
Spirit Halloween fundraiser supports Carle Health program
Spirit Halloween and Carle Health Proctor Hospital are holding a fundraiser where 10% of purchases made with a special coupon will be donated to the hospital's Child Life Program at six participating ...
What Are the Remaining Millennium Prize Problems?
OpenAI’s trove of new math results doesn’t fully solve any of these highly prestigious open questions, but it seems to make progress on some.
‘Breathtaking,’ ‘Devastating’: Mathematics Reels After New OpenAI Release
Hundreds of new A.I.-generated findings moved the frontiers of higher math in a single day — dispelling any doubt that the field is forever changed.
Six Flags Entertainment (NYSE:FUN) Stock Price Target Lowered at Citigroup
Citigroup lowered their price target on Six Flags Entertainment from $17.00 to $13.00 and set a "neutral" rating for the company in a report on Thursday.
Rainbow Six Siege Mobile Already Has A Shutdown Date Just 7 Months Into Its Full Release
Ubisoft's live service games continue to flop
The JAS-Pininfarina Honda NSX Restomod Is Finally Here
The long-awaited JAS Tensei packs a 425-hp naturally aspirated V6, a six-speed manual, and stunning Italian styling.
Amarillo NAACP hosting mental health forum on Saturday
The Amarillo NAACP is conducting a Mental Health Forum, focused on people of color, in the Amarillo Area Foundation auditorium at the corner of 10th and Polk.
Iowa Business Council predicts economically positive third quarter
A new survey from the Iowa Business Council reports a positive economic prediction for the next six months. The IBC’s Economic Outlook Survey (EOS) for the third quarter was 0.1 points higher than the report for the second quarter, now reaching 64.91 points. If the points are higher than 50, the survey is reported positive. […]
Citizen Science: To Sleep, Perchance To Dream: Ay, But Not To Rest
Sleep is divided into two broad categories based on whether our eyes move (rapid eye movement sleep; REM) or not (non-rapid eye movement sleep; NREM). Over the course of a night, we will cycle between these two categories four to six times.
Applications reopen for 2026 KOSBE Small Business Awards
The Kingsport Office of Small Business and Entrepreneurship has reopened applications for the 2026 KOSBE Small Business Awards until Oct. 23.
Testing 6 Completely Different Gravel Bikes Head to Head to Find the Future of Gravel
Gravel bikes are as varied as the people who ride them. We tested six completely different models at the Velo Field Test to find out where gravel is headed.
Highest Mortgage Rates in 3 Years Chills the Housing Market
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.4 percent, putting more pressure on Americans struggling to afford to buy a home.
Before Computer Science Became a Boys’ Club, Margaret Hamilton Wrote the Code
The woman who helped put astronauts on the moon was a software engineer when the field was not prestigious or lucrative.
Missouri Jury Awards $10 Million In Marijuana Business Ownership Dispute
“We are here trying to get back the business that they stole from us.” By Rebecca Rivas, Missouri Independent A St. Louis jury awarded $10 million Tuesday to three plaintiffs in a sprawling ownership battle over six Missouri cannabis licenses involving more than 20 businesses and individuals. Over a week of testimony, jurors heard about […]
HOMETOWN HEALTH: US lags on RSV vaccine for pregnant women as respiratory virus season begins
Pregnant women are recommended to receive the vaccine in their third trimester to help protect babies during the first six months of life.
NASA releases Artemis 2 science data
Six months after its Artemis 2 mission flew around the moon, NASA has released the full science data collected from the flight.
The Nobel boys club (again)
All six Nobel awardees in physiology or medicine, physics, and chemistry this year were men. Women make up 4% of laureates since the award’s inception.
Long-Deployed Aircraft Carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln Set for Homecoming
The ship, whose crew endured food shortages, spent much of its nearly 11-month deployment in combat without a day off.
This Photo Is an A.I. Fake. Can You Tell?
We want you to look closely — very closely — at this fake image and spot any errors.
Six social causes recognised at Atlético’s ADN Rojiblanco gala
The Atlético de Madrid Foundation held its first ADN Rojiblanco awards gala at the Club Telefónica of the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Wednesday 7 October, with six social projects linked to the club...
PENN Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN) Stock Has Average Target Price of $23.94 According to Analysts
Shares of PENN Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN - Get Free Report) have been given an average recommendation of "Moderate Buy" by the twenty ratings firms that are covering the company, MarketBeat Ratings reports. One analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, six have assigned a hold rating an
5 Takeaways From the First Iowa Senate Debate
In a top Senate battleground, Representative Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee, sparred with Josh Turek, her Democratic rival, on policy issues ranging from Medicaid to term limits.
Fire destroys Clymer barn, business
CLYMER – Fire destroyed a tarp business and barn on Ravlin Hill Road in Clymer on Tuesday – though the family’s home was saved. Firefighters from six area volunteer fire departments responded to the fire around 5 a.m. after Clymer firefighters called for mutual aid. Surrounding departments, starting with the Stanley Hose Company from Sherman, […]
Margaret Hamilton, Whose Software Guided the Apollo Missions, Has Died
Margaret Hamilton, the first female programmer hired to work on the space project at M.I.T., was 90.
RFK Jr. Plans Vaccine Injury Initiative, Drawing Wary Eye From Experts
Vaccine safety experts say more research into the side effects would be welcome yet question whether the health secretary’s effort will be grounded in science.
Trump Will Award Musk National Medal Of Science At D.C. Tech Summit
Musk and Jensen Huang, who’s also being honored, were two of the six tech moguls who signed the voluntary "White House Accord on Super Intelligence" last month.
Who Won August and September: Original Films or Franchises?
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) I just heard someone say that if you’re reading a pundit or data analyst, and they don’t tell you that they got anything wrong, they’re not a pundit but an “influencer”. I agree with that. You have to tell your audience when you get things wrong, or they won’t (or shouldn’t) trust you as much. Today, we’ve got another edition of “What I Got Right, What I Got Wrong”. In general, I’m patting myself on the back (and patting very hard) about a few things like IP at the box office, LIV golf, horror films, crowdfunding movies, superheroes, and old people going to the theaters. That said, I also made a couple of data mistakes on the streaming bubble popping and HBO’s datecdotes, so I’m not perfect. But first, I need your feedback... Subscribe Follow-Ups: What Should We Call Mid-Budget Movies Which Aren’t Cinematic Enough for Theaters But Are Too Expensive to Make Money on Streaming? After I asked for feedback on what we should call straight-to-streaming films that are too big to pencil out on streaming but not really big enough to resonate in theaters, I got some great suggestions from you all, including... “Moldilocks” from John Aboud “Little Big Indie” from Travis Frick1 “Midflicks” from Jonathan Funke. “Extra-Medium” from Jona Nwuke. (Read the explanation in the footnote.) Between these and Brandon Katz—who suggested “Bermuda Budget Triangle”, “The Platform Gap” and “The Distribution Deadzone”—we’ve got some excellent suggestions. And they’re better than my suggestion, the “Streaming Budget Dead Zone”, so let’s take a poll! The winning entry becomes the new term. Loading... RIGHT: LIV Golf is Fully Bankrupt…Is Anyone Else Next? A few years ago, I was always a bit perplexed at all the articles I’d read praising LIV Golf and their strategy to disrupt the PGA. LIV Golf, a brand new professional golf league, offered PGA stars ten times what they made on the PGA Tour to join their new league. And folks praised this strategy for its initial “success” in that a lot of big names did indeed leave the PGA. Yeah, of course the players came over. LIV Golf paid them so, so, so much more! But LIV Golf hadn’t discovered a way to increase potential revenue. So think about this in basic business terms… They paid much more in costs… …but had no real way to increase revenue. That’s not a strategy! That’s deficit financing. It won’t work unless you bankrupt the competition (and then turn around and pay those same golfers much, much less). It’s not a sustainable strategy and only lasts as long as the company/person/nation backing it decides they’re cool with losing money. For LIV Golf, that meant Middle East oil wealth, in particular Saudi Arabian money. Clearly, the current Iran War has hurt Middle East finances, so they need to trim their more exorbitant spending. And LIV Golf was part of that trimming. This should be a major warning for others. TGL’s parent company, TMRW Sports, just got a $1 billion valuation, despite TGL’s (the indoor golf league) horrible TV viewership of less than half a million viewers per match. Unrivaled, the women’s basketball league, just secured a $650 valuation, despite its horrible TV viewership and a new rival (Project B) entering the scene next year. To relate this to streaming, Hollywood should ask which streamers may have wealthy patrons funding their losses. (Let’s be clear: Google, Amazon and Apple.) Could those patrons lose their appetite? For Amazon, probably not. But Apple has a new boss, so maybe! WRONG: My Analysis of the Streaming Bubble Was Missing a Week I’m going to be congratulating myself a lot today, but I make mistakes too, like this data goof. When I last compiled the data on the decline in TV shows, I was missing one week at the end of June. If you look at the first image, you can see that one week was mislabelled as “July”. Mainly, this image got updated to show a 27% decline, not 29%: This change doesn’t really impact the overall analysis, but it is two percent better. By the way, through the third quarter, the decline increased and it’s now a 30% decrease since 2022. (I’ll write/visualize this in an upcoming article.) But I want you to trust me and my data. Especially these days, when many people are using LLMs that I know are inserting faulty data into their charts, I want to keep earning my audience’s faith. So that’s the accurate data. RIGHT: IP Remains Very, Very Popular In July, I wrote a giant (and I mean giant) article on Backrooms, Obsession, and the box office, going over what we know, what we don’t know about what works in theaters, looking at YouTubers, IP, the horror genre, comic book movies, and a whole lot more. The month of August really tested a lot of my theses and, being honest, mostly supported my arguments. Let’s start with IP. Looking at 8-Aug (the weekend after Spider-Man: Brand New Day came out) to 18-Sep (the weekend that Resident Evil came out, which I think provides a nice bookend to this time period), there were seven films based on pre-existing IP: Resident Evil (2026) ($126 million) Practical Magic 2 ($65 million) _Insidious: Out of the Furthe_r ($65 million) Coyote Vs. Acme ($59 million) Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie ($53 million) Tony ($15 million) Super Troopers 3 ($7 million) Compare those to the notable original films from the past month—I actually could have included more movies, but here are just thirteen, bringing us to an even twenty films—including.... The End of Oak Street ($54 million) Buddy ($26 million) Mutiny ($15 million) By Any Means ($15 million) The Dog Stars ($14 million) Runner ($14 million) One Night Only ($11 million) Hope ($8 million) Spa Weekend ($7 million) The Uprising ($6 million) Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma ($6 million) Onslaught ($3 million) Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man ($2.8 million) Here’s that in chart form: Five of the top six films in this time period were all based on IP. I made a big chart of films that grossed over $200 million at the box office before Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey hit theaters. Let’s update that chart! By the way, if you want to see how I categorized each film—so another bar chart—here it is: I know that many of my fellow critics/pundits/analysts dislike films based on IP and how Hollywood is making so many of them. And I’m sympathetic to this point of view. As I’ve written many, many times before, you need a balance between existing franchises, new IP, and original films. And Hollywood clearly needs to make more films like Resident Evil (a well-made film from a visionary director) and fewer Practical Magic 2’s (which didn’t get critical or customer buzz). But at some point, critics and pundits need to contend with what audiences are telling them: Movie-goers aren’t showing up to original films. Audiences are speaking with their dollars, telling you they want more IP and franchises. You can try to convince studio heads to make fewer IP-based films and franchises, but the data and numbers aren’t there. Instead, critics need to work harder to convince audiences to show up for original films. Aim your ire/concern at the average person, not studio heads.2 Because they’re just making the films that audiences are telling them to make. WRONG: Original Horror Films Didn’t Break Out I’ll be honest, even though I wrote an article casting some skepticism on the horror genre in July, if you asked me to make a prediction, I would have predicted that, in August, a new, original horror film would have blown up. No, seriously, I just assumed that Obsession and Backrooms presaged a change in audience behavior. But none of the buzzy new original horror films from August—Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, Onslaught (not an action film in spite of the ads), The End of Oak Street, Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man, or _Buddy—_broke out. To be clear, exactly one of those films (Buddy) had good “ROI”, but again—I try to be specific in my language—none were “popular” in any broad sense of the word. None of them will be “saving” movies theaters like Backrooms or _Obsession_helped save the summer. The new Insidious film and Resident Evil, both based on IP, were far and away the biggest horror films since July. (We’ll see if this changes in October/Halloween season.) RIGHT: Stay Skeptical about Crowdfunding... I’ve long been skeptical about crowd-investing platforms as one of Hollywood’s saviors, mainly because there’s so much hype/buzz. People need to stay more skeptical about more things, explaining both the potential upside but also the downsides. In particular, the media often hypes crowdfunding at the start and never checks in on the actual results after they’ve come in later. And August gave us our first update! _Ice Cream Man—_directed by Eli Roth—grossed $6 million off of a $5.5 million budget. This is a production of The Horror Section, which was one of the first “crowd investing” studios with 2,400 investors, which means that 2,400 investors probably lost money. They certainly aren’t getting as great of returns as if they had just invested their dollars in the stock market. Hopefully Stiletto (Tagline: “Someone’s Going to Make it Rain Blood!”) does better next month. WRONG: Another Data Goof Here’s another data error. When the first episode of House of the Dragon came out, HBO put out that it had 21.5 million viewers in the first three days, and I read that to mean in the US…but no, it was global. So my US-only datecdotes charts shouldn’t have included it. We never got US-only numbers for the first episode, but for the final episode, HBO put out that it had 11 million US viewers. (And that global dropped to 21 million viewers.) Here’s the updated chart (which I’ve since used in the Streaming Ratings Report): Still, this show is absolutely huge. RIGHT: Superhero Films Remain Very, Very Popular After Supergirl flopped, I read a few takes that “comic book movies are going the way of the Western”. Post-Spider-Man: Brand New Day, that take didn’t age well. To be fair, I have a very nuanced take on the superhero genre right now; it’s down right now, for a lot of reasons. But it’s not “dead”. Maybe _Spider-_Man is just a really popular character? I saw that take, and it’s a fair counter-argument. (But pundits arguing that superhero movies were dead should have mentioned this $1.5 billion counter-argument…) But is it just Spider-Man? The next Avengers film already has $50 million in pre-sales (and I was skeptical that that film would do well) and the Avengers: End Game re-release topped the box office two weekends ago (over three original films). And I wouldn’t bet against Batman or Superman. So maybe it’s just Spider-Man, Batman, Superman and the Avengers. Oh, and Deadpool, of course. And Black Panther. And Wolverine. And probably the X-Men. Plus a well-made Wonder Woman or the Hulk film could break out. But that’s it! It’s just those ten characters/teams. Oh, what’s that? Lanterns is also doing well on HBO? (See previous section…) To be fair, I’m actually pretty sympathetic to the argument that more popular characters—like Spider-Man and Batman—anchor more popular films. In fact, I made that exact argument three years ago when I first wrote about the “Marvel-cession”. In many ways, you can blame The Guardians of the Galaxy for fooling Marvel Studios (and the rest of us) into believing that any character could pop. It turns out, the list of iconic characters is probably smaller than most people think. But it’s probably too early to say that superhero films and comic book movies are dead unless “death” means a slight decline over a longtime. RIGHT: Who Killed Theaters? Old People I get frustrated whenever I see headlines or analysis about how young people are “returning” to theaters. As I’ve detailed(for years), young people have always powered the US box office, despite narratives about “kids these days” and their “phones”. Really, what’s changed post-2020/pandemic is that old people aren’t going to the movies nearly as much. This summer, I saw a movie (from an older director) in a theater near a retirement community, and multiple older people at the theater were talking about how this was their first time seeing a movie in years. I dislike personal anecdotes, so YouGov can fill in the data, best summarized by this headline: “Who killed movie theaters? Not the youths”. According to them, 64% of people aged 18-29 have seen a movie in the last year, but only 30% of 65-and-older. 20% of 18-29 have seen a movie in theaters in the last week and 42% in the last month. Here’s the polling data: Most concerning? Many Americans (17%) think theaters are a worse or much worse experience than watching films at home. Slight WRONG: Hadestown Opens Big A live theater capture of the Broadway musical, Hadestown, made $20 million at the US box office, which begs the question: was I wrong to be skeptical about musicals a few years ago? Yes and no. On the one hand, $20 million is a far cry from being “popular”, so yeah, the genre isn’t that popular overall and Hadestown is one of the more popular musicals from recent years (i.e. the “Taylor Swift Data Fallacy” in action). On the other, I doubt filming this cost all that much, and I don’t think that they spent much on marketing, so this is a good source of ancillary revenue. Smaller Updates WRONG: As I mentioned in a Streaming Ratings Report, I underestimated the budget for Enola Holmes 3. It probably cost more like $50 million, if not more. But... I’m not sure that it really matters? At sub-10 million hours, prices have to come down to make this work. WRONG: Netflix is giving Ink a 27-day in theaters! To quote the kids/YouTubers these days, let’s go! Now I might actually have a chance to see Danny Boyle’s latest in theaters. I’d complained about this in a “Coming Soon” section, but I was heartened to read that Netflix is giving multiple films longer theatrical windows this year. RIGHT: Netflix is sending 4-5 films per year to theaters. Netflix is slowly but surely sending more and more films to theaters, as I cautiously predicted earlier this year. For now, it’s just three big films and a number of awards contenders, but still, this is great news. And they’ll be releasing box office grosses! Just this week, Ted Sarandos confirmed that KPop Demon Hunters 2 will come to theaters (and my guess is it performs in the box office top ten at a minimum). WRONG: Angel has 3 million subscribers! How do I know this? Well, they told Deadline, who reported it. I marked this as “wrong”, since they’ve doubled their subscribers in one year but, you know, they don’t really have a hit film to speak of and they’re still losing money. WRONG: Furious was only renewed for one more season. I accidentally wrote “two more seasons” in my latest “Renewals, Cancellations, Un-Orders and Removals Update”. RIGHT: House of David is ending with its third season. In July, Prime Video renewed House of David for a third season, as I just wrote in my latest “Renewals and Cancellations” report. Well, now it’s ending after that third season. Why? As I’ve been writing, its viewership wasn’t great. I got feedback that this show didn’t cost very much, but it cost enough that its limited viewership didn’t save it. WRONG: Adults was a Hulu original! So I missed Adults when it first came out last year; I saw that it aired on FX and just assumed that it was a linear-first program. Turns out, it aired three episodes on FX, but binge-released the rest of its episodes the next day on Hulu. Huh. So I should have covered it last year! But I just wrote about it. 1 “When I was a kid in the 90s, if you wore a t-shirt to school that wasn’t too big and also wasn’t too small, but somehow didn’t quite fit, we’d say you were wearing an “extra-medium” shirt.” 2 As always, a huge exception is Disney, which barely makes anything original anymore.
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $20.79, Implies 72% Upside
Explore more price target data and ratings for Six Flags Entertainment Corporation on the Forecasts tab, and track all previous and future analyst recommendations for Six Flags Entertainment Corporation in the dedicated News Flow.Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2026 FactSet R…
RWJBarnabas Health Opens Sixth Food Farmacy and First in Southern Region
On September 8, 2026, RWJBarnabas Health opened the system’s sixth Food Farmacy at Monmouth Medical Center to provide patients with nutritious foods and individualized nutrition counseling from registered dietitians to support long-term health and well-being.
Iowa Business Council survey shows postive outlook on state's economy
The Iowa Business Council (IBC) has released its third quarter Economic Outlook Survey that gauges the outlook for the next six months. IBC President Joe Murphy says it’s based on a 100 point scale. “Our overall survey score was 64.91 index points, so just under 65 points, relatively flat, virtually no movement on the overall […]
Forecasting the Next Five Years of Business Jet Deliveries – Part 2
Image: Bombardier Global 7500/8000 Factory Part 1 (https://lnkd.in/ebQSmHXb) laid out the raw material behind this forecast: a six-OEM market where 1Q26 backlog growth ranges from 43% at Bombardier to roughly …
A Public Health-Minded Senator Asks: What Comes After Trump and Kennedy?
Senator Patty Murray, a former chair of the Senate health committee, is forming a group of experts to examine how to insulate the C.D.C. from political interference.
A Public Health-Minded Senator Asks: What Comes After Trump and Kennedy?
Senator Patty Murray, a former chair of the Senate health committee, is forming a group of experts to examine how to insulate the C.D.C. from political interference.
Justin Casse passed on the family training business over 4:30 a.m. wake-ups. Now he owns stakes in about 100 racehorses across six countries
Casse built a global business spotting future champions—and learned that even the best judgment can’t guarantee a winning investment.
Jonathan the Giant Tortoise Is 194 Years Old. He Just Had His Genome Sequenced.
Scientists have sequenced his genome for the first time, hoping the world’s oldest land animal can offer clues into the genetics of longevity.
Some furloughed Star Wars Zero Company developers are returning to work, studio says
Bit Reactor, the Maryland based company, behind this summer’s well-received tactical combat game Star Wars Zero Company says that “more” of its team is returning to work after being furloughed ahead of the game’s release. This is the studio’s first statement on the matter since Game File’s August report that “most” of the development team had been furloughed—technically kept as employees, but without pay or benefits—a few weeks prior to launch. Some of those furloughs ended this week. “This week, we started the process of returning more of our team back to work at Bit Reactor, an important step forward in our continued support for Zero Company, “ Bit Reactor CEO Greg Foertsch said in a statement. He continued: “Having to ask team members to step away after we navigated unexpected business developments outside of our control and so close to launch was an incredibly difficult decision, but one that was necessary to help us eventually bring as many people back as possible. “This team means a tremendous amount to me, and I am incredibly proud of what we have accomplished together. Thank you to our fans for the incredible response to the game and for supporting us along this journey. We look forward to sharing more updates regarding Bit Reactor and Zero Company soon.” Game File reported in August that Bit Reactor had retained a small team to work on updates for Zero Company. One person familiar with the situation told Game File that the returns announced today bring the studio’s pay-rolled headcount to more than half of what it had been ahead of the furloughs. That means a considerable number of people have been brought back, but that a fair number also remain without pay. While companies in the U.S. are often legally required to publicly disclose how many people they’ve laid off, furloughs can often be kept private, for a time. The United States Department of Labor requires companies to publicly report mass furloughs if they meet specific criteria, including any expectation that they will last more than six months. For those game makers who remain furloughed by Bit Reactor, it’s now been about two months. For more about Bit Reactor, the furloughs, the studio’s back-story and the ongoing lawsuit that brought this to light, read my August report. [ ‘Most’ of Star Wars Zero Company studio Bit Reactor was furloughed ahead of launch ](https://www.gamefile.news/p/star-wars-zero-company-bit-reactor-furloughs-lawsuit) Stephen Totilo · Sep 1 Last week was meant to be a moment of triumph for Bit Reactor, the Maryland-based game studio founded in 2021 with ambitions to create a great new tactical combat game. [ Read full story ](https://www.gamefile.news/p/star-wars-zero-company-bit-reactor-furloughs-lawsuit)
Philadelphia Eagles: Promote RB With Over 1,600 Career Yards
Injuries continue to plague the Philadelphia Eagles‘ running back room. Saquon Barkley suffered a hamstring injury and is reportedly week-to-week, meaning he could miss one game to multiple weeks. Additionally, Tank Bigsby, the second option, recently underwent core muscle surgery, prompting the Eagles to place him on injured reserve, hoping he misses six weeks or […] The post Philadelphia Eagles: Promote RB With Over 1,600 Career Yards appeared first on Gridiron Heroics.
Joe Manganiello claims ex Sofía Vergara ridiculed him during his near-fatal health battle
Was the Human Gut Healthier in Ancient Times?
The microbiome isn’t what it used to be in many parts of the world. The shift may be affecting the well-being of people in industrialized countries.
Eagles RT Lane Johnson retires to focus on mental health
The six-time Pro Bowl selection was a key component of an Eagles offensive line that helped win two Super Bowls.
Beaten-Down Flutter Entertainment Stock Upgraded
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) stock struggles near six-year lows despite a Citigroup upgrade
Rubio Stresses Need for U.S. Security Work With Greece on Migration and Terrorism
Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised Greece for spending more on defense, while saying it needs to address “mass migration.”
Don’t Let the Flu Sideline Your Season. It’s Time for your Flu Shot!
As autumn sets in, the Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) is urging residents to get their annual flu shot now to stay healthy and active through the months ahead. “We recommend a seasonal flu shot for everyone six months of age and older,” said Dr. Alexia Harrist, State Health Officer with WDH. “These vaccines carry […]
Movie Review: ‘The Social Reckoning’ is classic Aaron Sorkin
Aaron Sorkin revisits a familiar subject, Mark Zuckerberg, in “The Social Reckoning,” which opens in theaters nationwide Friday. Sixteen years after “The Social Network,” Zuckerberg is now portrayed by Jeremy
Chase for Business Expands Its Integrated Digital Experience with Chase Payroll, Powered by Gusto
NEW YORK, October 07, 2026--Small business owners increasingly want the tools they use to run their businesses to work together and be managed in one place. In recent Chase research, 89% of business owners said they would find it valuable to manage payroll within the same platform they use for business banking and payments, highlighting growing demand for a more connected business experience. Additionally, 37% said meeting payroll put pressure on cash flow over the last six months, underscoring
Why Markets Are Buoyant
Energy and technology companies’ earnings are expected to keep driving up stock indexes. But what’s driving up their profits are weighing on the economy.
Mayo High School business teacher honored as distinguished educator by national nonprofit
The honor recognizes his six professional certifications in real-world finance topics.
Trump Officials Ramp Up Investigations Into Voter Registration Groups
The Trump administration is investigating nonprofits that it says may be recruiting noncitizens for voter registration, documents show, even though noncitizen voting in the United States is rare.
'Home of the Future' at LACMA explores dark side of American dream
Across six decades, designers and corporations sold the home as a route to health, freedom and security. The exhibition raises the harder question of who paid for that dream.
Liverpool handed boost in pursuit of Andoni Iraola favourite
Liverpool’s start to life under Andoni Iraola has been solid, but not spectacular. The Reds are yet to taste defeat under the Spaniard but already sit six points off the Premier League leaders afte...
Science Hill region bound after blocking Dobyns-Bennett; West Ridge survives to play again
No matter what the sport, expect high-intensity competition when Science Hill and Dobyns-Bennett are lined up against each other. It was no different on Tuesday on the volleyball court.
DEG Presents Annual EnTech Awards Honoring Entertainment Technology Innovators
DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group presented its sixth annual EnTech Awards Oct. 6 at the Culver Theater in Culver City, Calif. The 2026 Hall of Fame Award was presented to Gray Ainsworth, EVP and head of global content operations for Lionsgate. Ainsworth recalled his start in the entertainment business as an actor with the legendary … Continue reading "DEG Presents Annual EnTech Awards Honoring Entertainment Technology Innovators"
Measuring Stick for the Washington Run Defense Against Iowa
Two years ago, Iowa rushed for 220 yards on the Washington run defense, averaging nearly six yards per carry inside Kinnick Stadium. The Huskies lost 40-16 in what was just the fourth Big Ten game of Jedd Fisch’s tenure in Seattle. The loss demonstrated the physicality and stylistic gap that Washington aimed to close as …
Angus Taylor’s immigration plan misses the target – on politics and on policy
The most surprising aspect of the Coalition’s policy is that in six pages of detail there is not a single mention of the labour market
In Iceland, Rubio Dodges a Diplomatic Flap Over a Trump Map
President Trump had posted a map on his Truth Social account in September depicting Iceland as part of U.S. territory.
Philadelphia Eagles great Lane Johnson abruptly retires citing ‘mental health’
The six-time Pro Bowl right tackle says he is stepping away after 14 seasons to focus on his mental health and spend more time with his family
The 2026 Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 6
The contenders and fringe contenders are beginning to show themselves in the Big Ten. At the same time, six programs have been eliminated from contention.
Trump Does Not Plan to Reimburse Taxpayers for Promotional Ads
A day after the president said his super PAC would pay for the ads, which had drawn bipartisan backlash, officials said that he meant moving forward. A new taxpayer-funded ad aired Tuesday.
Rating the Governor Races: The States Where Democrats Are Poised for Victory
Election Day this year will determine who holds the keys to influential executive mansions across the country. Thirty-six states have gubernatorial contests on the ballot, and the results in November will determine whether Democrats control a majority of the nation’s governorships for the first ...
Emmys will move to Amazon Prime
The Television Academy and Amazon Prime Video on Tuesday announced a historic six-year deal for exclusive global rights to the Emmy Awards .
What To Expect in OKC Thunder’s First Preseason Game
With six stars sidelined, young prospects like Ajay Mitchell and Aday Mara take center stage in Tulsa to fight for roles within the Thunder’s championship-caliber rotation.
Rating the Governor Races: The States Where the GOP Is Poised for Victory
Election Day this year will determine who holds the keys to influential executive mansions across the country. Thirty-six states have gubernatorial contests on the ballot, and the results in November will determine whether Democrats control a majority of the nation’s governorships for the first ...
Amazon bricks Alexa’s ability to control Echo speakers' AUX input
Amazon hasn't made an Echo with a 3.5mm port in six years.
Emmys moving to Prime Video in 2027
The Emmys have a new home.Starting in 2027, the Emmy Awards will stream exclusively on Prime Video as part of a six-year deal between the Television Academy and the Amazon-owned streaming service.The ...
Susan Collins, a political survivor, tries to outrun Trump
In her bid for a sixth term representing Maine, Susan Collins has been beset by President Donald Trump weighing her down with constant controversy.
‘Vampire Diaries’ star makes first major public appearance in 7 years
Steven R. McQueen, who starred as Jeremy Gilbert across six seasons of ‘The Vampire Diaries,’ reunited with his former castmates at a Paris fan convention.
Soldiers Wounded by Iranian Drone Strike Accuse Military Health Care System of Failing Them
Six U.S. Army Reserve soldiers died and more than 30 suffered wounds during the March attack,
Students Use Forensic Science Skills in Escape Room
Hundreds of students from across the region put their problem-solving skills to the test this week during the Regional Science Consortium’s annual Forensic Science Escape Room. Elementary school students had just a few hours to figure out how someone died as part of a forensic science escape room activity. The Regional Science Consortium partnered with Mercyhurst University for the 10th year of the event, which is taking place at the Tom Ridge Environmental Center. It began Monday and runs through Thursday.Throughout the week, more than 250 students are working to solve murder mysteries using real forensic science techniques. Students must analyze the evidence, piece together clues and solve the crime before time runs out.Organizers said the event gives students interested in pursuing forensic science in college a firsthand look at what a career in the field could entail.Sarah Skelton, Special Gifts Coordinator at Iroquois, said the activity provides students with an opportunity to develop skills that can sometimes be difficult to practice in a traditional classroom. "It really helps them to work in teams and on critical thinking skills. Which, not that they don't get these opportunities, but it's hard sometimes in the classroom to develop those higher-level thinking skills”, said Skelton.Students also get a chance to learn how forensic science is used in real-life investigations. As Skelton explained, "What are the real-life applications? What would you actually see in a crime scene? How would you handle these types of forensic investigations? So it's really cool our kids get to see what opportunities are out there and possibly a career field one day."The popular event has grown over the years, with some students returning year after year. Organizers said watching those students grow and develop their interests is one of the highlights of the program.Jeanette Schnars, the Executive Director of the Regional Science Consortium said it's rewarding to see how students' interests evolve as they get older. According to Schnars, "How they have grown and matured and where their interests are going and maybe they aren't going into forensics, but if they are going into sciences or different disciplines, so it's really fulfilling to see how they have matured."One student who continues to enjoy the event is sixth-grader Mia Harvey of Iroquois. Harvey hopes to pursue a career in medicine and says the forensic science activities are helping her explore her interests, "One day I want to become a neurologist, and learning about the bones is probably going to help me."Harvey said her favorite part of the event is the real-life application of what she's learning. "While you are trying to find the clues, they teach real stuff that you would need to know”, said Harvey.Event organizers said if students are learning while having fun, then the program is accomplishing its goal. "Not only are they learning the science, but they are having fun with it too”, said Schnars.Adults will also have a chance to take part in the experience this Saturday during an adult version of the escape room, which will feature food, drinks and entertainment. For more information, click here.The Forensic Science Escape Room has become one of the Regional Science Consortium’s most popular events, with teachers signing up their students as soon as registration opens in August.
Brazil: Lessons from a Disaster
By Antonio Martins (Outras Palavras) Defeats become deeper and more prolonged when we misunderstand what caused them, avoid correcting course, and embrace “solutions” that only compound our mistakes. Lula’s government and the Brazilian left suffered a disaster in Sunday’s election. Contrary to every poll, the president finished the first round 2.2 million votes behind Flávio Bolsonaro—and, more significantly, 3.4 million votes below his total four years ago, when the machinery of the state was working against him and in favor of his opponent. His vote share declined in 98 percent of Brazil’s municipalities. The PL, the main party of the far right, elected 121 deputies and 28 senators, becoming the largest caucus in both houses of Congress. The parties aligned with the Centrão—Brazil’s bloc of transactional center-right parties—were somewhat diminished, but will still hold roughly 250 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate. That will make it easier to assemble the majorities needed to amend the Constitution or impeach Supreme Federal Court justices. If elected, Flávio Bolsonaro could appoint four members of the Court, substantially altering its internal balance of power. What produced these results? How can the far right be prevented from consolidating them into a prolonged political hegemony? And what is the essential change of direction the left now needs? Explaining the Disaster Across the commercial media and the exuberant chaos of digital platforms, interpretations are multiplying. Some focus on specific episodes: Lula’s absence from the Globo debate, his very close relationship with Alexandre de Moraes, or his emphasis on issues supposedly remote from most people’s everyday concerns, such as rare earth minerals. Among the more systemic interpretations, three seem especially questionable. One argues that the principal defeat was not the left’s, since its congressional representation declined only slightly. The decisive movement captured at the ballot box, according to this view, was a shift within the right itself—from the more moderate and transactional forces of the Centrão toward the more ideological and radicalized forces of the PL and Novo. A second interpretation holds that the nature of electoral and political processes has changed. The material interests and aspirations of society, it argues, no longer play the central role they once did; they have given way to forms of subjective self-identification that the left has yet to understand. And a third concludes that, because of these two developments, we should expect a political winter: a prolonged period in which the far right and the broader right dominate Brazilian political life. There are important elements in all three interpretations. The problem lies in what they deny or leave out: Lula’s third government was a small-bore government. It offered the majorities that elected it neither a clearly better life nor reasons to believe again in politics and its power to transform society. These failures flowed from two fatal accommodations, which I will examine below. As a result, the government suffered a slow but steady erosion of support. And, as has happened in so many Western countries, it gave the far right the opportunity to present itself as anti-system and to benefit from popular frustration and distress. The interpretation that emphasizes the migration of votes from the center-right and traditional right toward the far right has been advanced, among others, by the courageous journalist Leonardo Sakamoto. In his UOL column on Monday, October 5, he highlights the miserable behavior of the traditional conservative parties. Over the past four years, they repeatedly joined forces with the “neo”-fascists, helping to “normalize” them—a criticism that could equally be directed at almost the entire corporate media. Believing they could use the far right as a stepping stone, they instead ended up partly devoured by it. This was especially true in the Senate, where the PL’s gain of 13 senators and Novo’s gain of two came at the expense of the PSD, which lost nine; the MDB, which lost two; the PSDB, which lost two; and the PP, which lost one. Sakamoto’s observation is accurate and necessary, but it leaves uncomfortable questions unanswered. Why did the erosion of the Centrão benefit the far right rather than, for example, producing growth for the left—as has happened so many times before, both in Brazil and elsewhere? The answer is not difficult. Throughout its four years in office, Lula’s third government was almost invariably associated with the Centrão. Here lies its first accommodation: accepting the limits imposed by conservative institutions; avoiding, as much as possible, any attempt to strain those limits through popular pressure; and believing only in the modest changes that could be squeezed through openings in Congress. The failure of the campaign to end the six-day workweek is emblematic. Lula could have electrified the presidential race by pairing it with a popular campaign for passage of the measure. Instead, he chose to place his hopes in the hands of Senate president Rodrigo Alcolumbre. He generated no mass mobilization, did not force his opponents onto an uncomfortable defensive, and won no victory. In September 2025, the government squandered the greatest of its many opportunities to shake up conservative power in Congress. Popular opposition to the so-called Shielding Amendment—which, if approved, would have restricted criminal proceedings against members of Congress—brought crowds into the streets, mobilized primarily by artists and social movements. This opened the possibility for a broader political education: a campaign that could begin exposing the limits and dysfunctions of Brazil’s political system while putting Bolsonaro’s movement on the defensive for its predictable support of political privilege. The amendment was defeated. But the executive branch then backed away from the fight. It remained associated with an institutional world widely seen as corrupt, elitist, and indifferent to ordinary people’s struggles. In doing so, it forfeited its credibility as a vehicle for the protest vote. On Sunday, it reaped the bitter fruits. Are We Doomed? Taking a different approach from Sakamoto, the philosopher Moysés Pinto Neto and other writers have drawn attention, in their first analyses of October 4, to the fragmentation of the public sphere produced by Big Tech platforms. Through their algorithms, these platforms present each person with a different view of social reality. As a consequence, it becomes much harder to identify common material problems and demands—for example, the fight for labor rights or for a properly funded public health system. Voters no longer embrace such demands, these authors argue, because they no longer see themselves as part of a collective. Instead, they tend to value the identities assigned to them by neoliberal subjectivity—the role of the entrepreneur, for example. On this interpretation, the left’s possible error lies in clinging to outdated illusions. Moysés’s warning is highly relevant and resonates with arguments such as Naomi Klein and Astra Taylor’s “Apocalyptic Fascism and the Billionaires’ Bet.” Unlike a century ago, the far right no longer promises a radiant future. It concentrates instead on resentment—especially that of young men. “They belong to a generation that fears it may never own a home, but compensates with the pleasure it gets from constantly provoking progressives online. Convinced their future has been stolen, they share memes romanticizing historical authoritarian regimes,” the authors write. But Moysés seems to confuse this danger with inevitability. He fails to see that the left’s answer cannot be adaptation. On the contrary, it must strengthen the possibility of politics as collective action. Nor does he recognize that precisely such a reversal is already becoming possible in some of the most promising mobilizations of the twenty-first century: the election, at the end of 2025, of the young Muslim Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York, on a platform centered on the intensely material fight for an affordable city; the Left Party’s victory in Berlin two weeks ago, built around the demand to expropriate private real-estate corporations; and the very recent wave of demonstrations in Spain—including an occupation of Madrid’s Puerta del Sol—in which tens of thousands of young people mobilized by the Tenants’ Union have demanded limits on rents. By putting itself in the straitjacket of the “fiscal framework” in the first months of 2022, Lula’s third government adopted the second fatal accommodation of its term. Faced with conservative institutions and a country devastated by four years of Bolsonaro, increased public investment was the government’s remaining weapon for offering a more dignified life to the majority and forging an anti-conservative pact with them. The same state that disburses 1 trillion reais a year to enrich a small class of rentiers could instead spend money to extend the Family Health Strategy to every Brazilian, at a cost of 30 billion reais; provide full-day public schooling and childcare to all adolescents and children—and, especially, relief to their mothers; achieve universal sanitation while cleaning up polluted urban rivers; multiply metro systems; begin transforming the urban peripheries; and undertake many other urgently needed projects. In April 2023, an article in Outras Palavras warned that the fiscal framework could “shrink the Lula government and preserve the forces that condemn the country to inequality and regression.” A year later, another article showed that restraints on public spending were strangling policies vital to ordinary people and undermining the president’s popularity. In November 2024 came a reality check, in the form of the government’s humiliating defeat in the municipal elections. Even then, the fiscal lock was neither removed nor loosened. On the contrary: throughout the government’s four years, fiscal restraint remained central to its political narrative. The administration proudly proclaimed that it had “put the state’s accounts in order,” without grasping either how misleading that phrase was—given the payment of 1 trillion reais in interest—or how badly the message was hurting it politically. Lula finally woke up in September 2026. The increase in Bolsa Família benefits, after four years of being frozen; the announcement that anti-obesity drugs would be offered through Brazil’s public health system; and the ban on online betting showed that the state has the power to act decisively on behalf of the majority when those in government are willing to confront obstacles. The huge marches that closed the campaign in Fortaleza, Salvador, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo on the eve of October 4 showed how such initiatives can mobilize activists and the broader public. But it was too late—and too little to change the outcome of the first round. History has not ended The possibility of a turnaround in the three weeks leading up to November 25 cannot be ruled out. It will not be simple or easy. Lula must not only make up a deficit of 2.2 million votes; he must also offset the movement of voters who backed other right-wing candidates in the first round, most of whom are likely to move toward Flávio Bolsonaro. Pulling that off will require a broad, grassroots effort to win over voters, potentially reinforced by new initiatives from Lula. The coming hours and days will be decisive. If Bolsonaro’s movement also wins the presidency, the result will create a high-risk situation for Brazilian sovereignty and democracy. The enormous challenges posed by such an outcome would require the left to reexamine, in depth and with a genuine willingness to engage in self-criticism, its political projects—or its lack of them—and its practices. But would that mean we are condemned to the long winter of far-right hegemony that some analyses are beginning to forecast? It is far too early to say, suggests a recent text by Álvaro García Linera, the thinker who served as vice president of Bolivia under Evo Morales. His central hypothesis is that this political current will prove short-lived. At a moment when the entire world is once again talking about sovereignty and protecting national economies, the far right offers a stale, recolonizing neoliberalism. Its submission to the United States is as blatant and pathetic as Flávio and Eduardo Bolsonaro’s overtures to Donald Trump. Its project amounts to something like every man for himself: greater inequality, capitalism without limits, devastation, and supremacism. Will it work? In the United States, just two years into his second term, Trump himself is reaching record levels of unpopularity and may be on the verge of losing Republican control of both the House and Senate in November. Every new beginning is difficult. Whatever the outcome of the second round, the defeats of October 4 show how profoundly the Brazilian left will have to rethink and rebuild. But just as it would be foolish to underestimate the seriousness of its mistakes, it would be equally foolish to conclude that rebuilding a political project is no longer possible. History has not ended. The times are moving faster than ever. Originally published in Portuguese by Outras Palavras. English translation by Eric Blanc; I’ve added the subtitles. More We can’t stop the far right at home or abroad without a revitalized labor movement, which is yet another reason why you should become a sustaining supporter of the Emergency Workplace Organizing Committee (EWOC) — one of US labor’s pivotal bright spots. Relatedly, Jacobin published a short piece of mine reflecting on a decade of Bernie Sanders inspiring a whole new generation of young worker organizers.
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