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Merriam business owners concerned as city considers downtown redevelopment
Business owners in downtown Merriam, Kansas, are raising concerns about proposed redevelopment plans that could lead to the demolition of historic buildings, while the city says no decisions have been made.
AACF: Uninsured Arkansas children reached 7.7% in 2025
The percentage of Arkansas’ uninsured children climbed to 7.7% in 2024 – the latest in a trend that began after the state reached a historic low of 4.1% in 2016,...
Teton Science Schools to host Murie Ranch Art Festival Oct. 9 to 11
Save the date! The Murie Ranch Art Festival returns to Grand Teton National Park Oct. 9–11, hosted by Teton Science Schools at the historic Murie Ranch. Three-day community celebration will feature watercolor artist Sarah Yeoman alongside workshops, demonstrations, speakers and activities for all ages.
Upcoming fall events at The ARC
Re-opened under the management of Great River Shakespeare Festival (GRSF) last fall, The ARC - Home of the Historic Masonic Theatre, located at 255 Main Street in downtown Winona, has
Historic Island Park mural reemerges 43 years after its Brattleboro unveiling
BRATTLEBORO — Forty-three years after its original unveiling, portions of a large mural depicting Brattleboro’s long-lost Island Park have emerged from storage at a moment when renewed public interest is
The Mysterious Devil’s Arrows Stones Appeared in England 4,000 Years Ago. Scientists Just Learned Where They’re From.
Ice-flow models rule out natural transport, leaving prehistoric engineers as the only ones who could do it.
National Trust, after battling with Trump, to announce legal defense fund
The preservation group, which sued to stop the White House ballroom, says it will push back against the administration’s changes to historic sites and laws.
Pat Murphy calls Jacob Misiorowski’s Brewers development a “Beautiful Story”
Jacob Misiorowski has become a major part of the Milwaukee Brewers’ push toward the postseason after putting together a historic season. With the 2026 MLB Playoffs approaching, Brewers manager Pat Murphy reflected on how the young pitcher’s performance this year compares with what he showed during the 2025 season. During an appearance on The Pat [...]
Penix Must Fix The Falcons’ Historic Offensive Slump
After a 34-3 loss to Carolina, the Falcons turn to Michael Penix Jr. to end a period of offensive ineptitude that spans nearly five decades.
Utica native publishes book of historical postcards
In a love letter to Utica’s history and the power of memory, author Kathryn Beard, a Utica native, has written “Wish You Were Here! Greetings from Utica, New York,” a book that celebrates the city’s history through postcards.
Former Mike McCarthy QB Rips Steelers Offense: ‘Prehistoric’
A former quarterback who played for head coach Mike McCarthy does not like what he's seeing from the Pittsburgh Steelers offense.
Knicks Ranked Behind 2 Teams After Historic Title Run
The defending champion Knicks landed only third in a preseason power ranking despite returning most of the core from their historic title run. The post Knicks Ranked Behind 2 Teams After Historic Title Run appeared first on HEAVY.
OU renames health campus for Harold Hamm after historic $150 million gift
OU Health is now the Harold Hamm Health Campus after the University of Oklahoma received a record $150 million gift from the oil billionaire.
Alicia Keys, Gigi Hadid and Jennifer Lopez bring star power to Vogue World in Milan
Italy's fashion elite has gathered for Vogue's annual fashion event at the historic Galleria Vittorio Emanuele II | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Patrik Schick’s Hot Streak Interrupted By International Break
The Czech striker has evolved into a vocal leader, matching historic scoring records while spearheading Leverkusen’s resurgence before national duty stalls his clinical momentum in the Bundesliga.
De Paula’s Early Success Threatens Hernández’s Dodgers Future
As top prospect Josue De Paula’s historic offensive surge ignites the Los Angeles Dodgers, his elite plate discipline and sudden emergence could force Teoscar Hernández out of town.
Chip and Joanna Gaines Finally Sell Their Famous $2.7 Million Historic Waco Castle—Fully Furnished
The yearslong renovation and design project, which was featured on "Fixer Upper: The Castle," is ready for new residents.
The GOP stampede away from Trump is growing
Republicans choosing to distance themselves from President Donald Trump ahead of the 2026 midterm election was somewhat inevitable, given how historically unpopular Trump is.
Orlando Health Watson Clinic Lakeland Highlands Hospital and Polk State College announce partnership with hospital’s $1 million historic gift
Orlando Health Watson Clinic Lakeland Highlands Hospital today announced that it is gifting $1 million to Polk State College over five years. In recognition of the commitment, the Radiography Suite at the soon-to-open Polk State…
DNA, a link to the past — Historical society presents program with local science educator Rutland
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... Have you ever wondered how DNA can help uncover the past? From identifying individuals, tracing ancient migrations, and revealing genetic histories, DNA can also […]
Journey to 1948 Tampa through time travel
Author Paula Braley of Inverness requests the honor of your presence in 1948 Tampa. To get there, you might want to time travel in her new urban, romantic, historical thriller,
Raines football's latest feat? 30 regular-season wins, and counting
Raines' football victory over Mandarin keeps several historic streaks going for the Vikings, and First Coast Varsity Weekly has the details.
Jiang Feng: The Unravelling of German & European Politics
A state election in eastern Germany has become a revealing test of the changing political landscapes of Germany and Europe, writes Jiang Feng, Professor and Chairman of the Council of the Shanghai Academy of Global Governance and Area Studies (SAGGAS) at Shanghai International Studies University. His analysis follows the decisive victory of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) (which has been classified as right-wing extremist by German authorities)in the state of Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September, in which it finished far ahead of its mainstream rivals. Jiang previously served as Minister-Counsellor at the Chinese Embassy in Berlin. The following article was published on 8 September 2026 on huanqiu.com, the online platform of the Global Times. On 6 September, the results of the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, were announced. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), classified as far-right by German authorities, made history by becoming the largest party in the state parliament, winning 43.8 per cent of the vote — twice its share in the previous election. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had governed the state continuously for 24 years, won just 17.2 per cent, its worst result ever in Saxony-Anhalt. On the night the results were announced, the atmosphere at the CDU gathering was unusually calm. There was neither shock nor argument, as if the defeat had long been expected. Several veteran party members who had spent years working in the state government said: “Defeat is not a bad thing. It is time to make changes.” This state election has not only upended Saxony-Anhalt’s political landscape, but also laid bare the deep tensions between Germany’s traditional party structure and model of governance, on the one hand, and an increasingly polarised society on the other. Its repercussions are already being felt at the federal level, making Saxony-Anhalt a useful case study of the broader trend towards political polarisation and realignment in Europe. Governing Difficulties after Electoral Victory The most immediate consequence of the election is a historic setback for the mainstream party order that took shape in post-war Germany. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD has leapt from a peripheral party to the largest political force in the state. Its electoral base has expanded beyond the traditional category of “marginal protest voters” to take on the characteristics of a cross-class coalition. The party has not only consolidated its support in rural areas, but also attracted many middle-class voters and even members of the social elite with stable jobs, their own homes, and substantial incomes. It has thus evolved from a “protest party” into one with the potential to govern. Despite its commanding lead in the vote, however, the AfD faces an institutional obstacle to governing the state: the mainstream parties’ long-standing “firewall” against it. Neither of the two potential routes to forming a government appears likely to break the current political deadlock. The first would be a coalition of establishment parties, led by the CDU and bringing together the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, the Left Party (Die Linke) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in a cross-camp government. In terms of parliamentary arithmetic, such a coalition could prevent the AfD from forming a government and preserve the outward stability of the traditional political order. Yet these parties are fundamentally divided over key issues including immigration, the energy transition, economic management, and cultural and education policy. Coalition negotiations would therefore be extremely difficult, and even if a government could be formed, it would most likely prove short-lived. More importantly, an alliance of establishment parties aimed at keeping the largest party out of government would play directly into the AfD’s narrative that “political elites are suppressing public opinion”. It could deepen perceptions of political unfairness, further strengthening the AfD’s political capital, and creating a dynamic in which “the more it is suppressed, the more people vote for it”. Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s candidate for state premier, has said that if efforts to form a government fail because other parties refuse to cooperate, the AfD will push for a fresh election, which he believes could deliver the party an absolute majority of seats. This points to more intense political battles ahead. The second option would be a coalition between the AfD and the BSW. Together, the two parties would command a simple majority in parliament, making this, on paper, the quickest route to forming a government. The BSW is the only elected party that has not ruled out cooperation with the AfD, and the two parties share some common ground, including on policy towards Russia. There is therefore a degree of political basis for cooperation. Were such a coalition to materialise, Germany would see its first state government jointly formed by a party defined as far-right and one with a far-left background, creating what might be called a “bipolar anti-establishment alliance”. Such an outcome would fundamentally break with the ideological boundaries of post-war German party politics. It is worth noting that even if the AfD ultimately fails to enter the state government, its roughly 47 per cent share of parliamentary seats would give it a powerful blocking minority. Without its consent, major decisions requiring a two-thirds majority — including constitutional amendments, significant budgetary adjustments, and state-level institutional reforms — would be extremely difficult to pass. Therefore, whoever ultimately forms the government, the AfD will be an unavoidable force in Saxony-Anhalt politics, with a direct influence on the state’s legislative process. Systemic Failures in Germany’s Governance Model The Saxony-Anhalt election result reflects a systemic failure of Germany’s post-war mainstream-party model of governance to adapt to rapidly changing socioeconomic conditions. It stems from multiple, mutually reinforcing structural tensions and highlights the existing political system’s difficulty in adapting to “an increasingly polarised society First, collective anxiety has replaced individual material hardship as a central driver of political mobilisation. The rise of the AfD can no longer be explained simply by poverty or social marginalisation. Its increasingly cross-class electoral base suggests that what is driving voters towards the party is, above all, concern about the broader direction of society. This anxiety about the future of the political community goes beyond individual gains and losses. In political discourse, economic anxiety has become closely intertwined with immigration, while immigration and refugee issues are, in essence, questions of social fairness. This perception turns conflicts over the distribution of social resources into negative assessments of governing parties, providing a broad social basis for far-right political narratives. Second, regional disparities and East German identity have undermined the strategy of addressing eastern Germany’s structural challenges at the regional level. More than three decades after German reunification, eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt have experienced periods of economic growth, but their underlying economic structures remain weak, and household incomes and wealth remain significantly below those in western Germany. At the same time, they continue to face population outflow, an ageing population, labour shortages, and other structural challenges. At a deeper level, historical experiences — including the collapse of the former East German economic system, mass unemployment during the transition, and the westward shift of decision-making power over major issues — have left some residents with a sense of being “second-class citizens” and of being excluded. For years, the German government treated the “syndrome” of reunification as a regional problem to be gradually addressed at the local level. That approach is becoming increasingly unsustainable, as regional development disparities emerge as a core structural factor shaping national politics. Third, the erosion of institutional trust is perhaps the most decisive factor. AfD supporters tend to distrust establishment institutions, including parliament, government, and the mainstream media. Their concerns about economic security, pensions, and social fairness are significantly greater than the social average. Increasingly, their support for the AfD reflects not an expectation that the existing system can be improved, but a search for an alternative to the current political order. Such a systemic deficit of trust will be extremely difficult for the traditional parties to repair in the short term. Fourth, a generational shift in political mobilisation has amplified political polarisation. Unlike traditional parties, which rely heavily on offline rallies and mainstream media coverage, the AfD has developed a social-media mobilisation strategy built around “raising an issue — identifying who is responsible — offering a simplified solution — building a shared identity”. It turns complex social tensions into concise political narratives, rapidly channelling public sentiment into political support. The contrast on the eve of the election was particularly telling. The establishment parties, together with trade unions and churches, organised an offline march attended by more than 10,000 people, but its reach was largely confined to those present and to traditional media coverage. The AfD held a much smaller indoor event, yet livestreaming on TikTok, YouTube, and other platforms, combined with the involvement of online influencers, gave it a reach and mobilising capacity far beyond that of the march. The contrast illustrates how the traditional parties’ methods of political mobilisation are increasingly struggling to keep pace with a political environment transformed by changes in media technology. A Microcosm of Structural Political Change in Europe The shockwaves from the Saxony-Anhalt election quickly travelled beyond the state to the federal level. Calls for political accountability followed immediately after the results were announced. The governing CDU and SPD are now under enormous pressure, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil face an unprecedented test. Political polarisation in Germany is no longer simply a regional phenomenon. The post-war model of multiparty government by establishment parties is breaking down and being reshaped. Viewed in a broader European context, the Saxony-Anhalt election is part of a continent-wide wave of party polarisation, mainstream-party decline, and rising right-wing forces. Far from an isolated phenomenon, it is a microcosm of the structural political changes unfolding across Europe. Weak economic growth, cultural tensions over immigration, and declining trust in institutions are fuelling the rise of right-wing forces in several countries, challenging the liberal internationalist order established in post-war Europe. As a core member state of the European Union, Germany’s ability to adapt its political system and the direction of its politics will have profound implications for both European integration and the evolution of the international order. Subscribe [ Pekingnology China’s Germany watchers take stock of Berlin’s uneasy turn On 7 December 2025, nearly 50 Chinese scholars and policy researchers gathered in Beijing for the 2025年德国形势年终研讨会 “2025 Year-End Seminar on the Situation in Germany… Read more 9 months ago · 31 likes · 1 comment · YIRUI LI and Yuxuan JIA ](https://www.pekingnology.com/p/chinas-germany-watchers-take-stock?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1151841) [ Jiang Feng on Germany's 2025 and beyond: no easy exit ](https://www.eastisread.com/p/jiang-feng-on-germanys-2025-and-beyond) Yirui LI and Yuxuan JIA · Jan 24 The following is an op-ed by Jiang Feng, published on 29 December 2025 at Shanghai Observer 上观新闻, the digital platform of Jiefang Daily, the official newspaper of the Shanghai Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC). [ Read full story ](https://www.eastisread.com/p/jiang-feng-on-germanys-2025-and-beyond)
7 things to watch in MLB's final week include red-hot NL wild-card race, a Triple Crown chase and a historically bad division
CSU experts say rising heat will negatively impact academics this fall
Fort Collins just logged its warmest summer on record. Nighttime lows aren’t dropping the way they used to. And through most of September, nearly every day has landed above the historical average for the month. For Colorado State University students, that’s more than a matter of sweating through class; researchers say it could be shaping...
Minor League Season Comes to an End For Marlins Affiliates
From championship glory in Jupiter to historic base-stealing in Pensacola, witness how top prospects like Brandon Compton and Echedry Vargas fueled a dynamic year across the farm system.
Carnegie Mellon University Reaches Historic High at No. 14 in U.S. News Rankings, Takes No. 1 Spot for Computer Science
Carnegie Mellon University has achieved its highest position in the U.S. News & World Report Best Colleges rankings, climbing six spots to No. 14 nationally in the 2027 list.
City fielding tenants for historic Tempe National Bank, Tempe Hardware Building on Mill Avenue
The century-old Tempe National Bank building and the Tempe Hardware Building will soon be home to new businesses as the city fields offers for tenants to lease the spaces on Mill Avenue.
Opinion: A historic bridge still has to be a bridge
The landmark Cortland Street Bridge has been closed to cars for a year. A civil engineer argues preservation shouldn’t come at the expense of function.
Georgia football is scoring at a historic pace
Georgia leads the nation in scoring with an average of over 59 points per game as they prepare to face a tough Oklahoma defense.
Denver Museum of Nature & Science completes renovation of Sturm Family Wing
The Denver Museum of Nature & Science has reopened the renovated Sturm Family Wing featuring restored historic elements and modern enhancements.
2026 Concessions & Entertainment Guide
Agile Ticketing Solutions agiletix.com Agile Ticketing Solutions (AgileTix) is a North America–based provider of ticketing and venue management software, serving the live entertainment industry since 1999. Headquartered in Hermitage, Tennessee, AgileTix supports cinemas, performing arts centers, museums, historic theaters, festivals, and cultural institutions with a unified platform that connects box office, concessions, merchandise, memberships, and […]
Germany’s political center suffers historic blow, Turkey weighs coming to Saudi Arabia’s aid, Major TV networks support outlets banned from White House
Two weeks ago, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was “shocked” when his conservative CDU party got creamed by the hard right AfD in local elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. That was just the start.
Paramount, attorneys general settle lawsuit, clearing a path for Warner Bros. merger
With the agreement, California Atty. General Rob Bonta and his coalition plan to withdraw historic lawsuit that aimed to derail the $111-billion deal.
This Week: Phone Bank for Transit, SF Politics, Transit Tales
Here is a list of events this week. Monday/today! Phone bank with SFBike to Save Transit. The San Francisco Bicycle Coalition is phone banking and connecting with voters, explaining how vital it is to pass the Regional Transit Measure this November. Join them to help make sure our regional transit survives and thrives. Monday/today, September 21, 5-7 p.m. San Francisco Bicycle Coalition Office, 1720 Market Street, S.F. Tuesday Historic Photo Exhibit Tour. Moving San Francisco is a collaboration between the SFMTA and San Francisco Arts Commission and is on view at City Hall through November 25. During this informal tour, they will take an in-depth look at selected photos from San Francisco transit history and learn more about the stories and people behind them. Tuesday, September 22, 5-7:45 p.m. North Light Court inside City Hall, One Dr. Carlton B. Goodlett Place, S.F. Tuesday San Francisco Bicycle Coalition Board Meeting. SF Bicycle Coalition members are invited to attend all board meetings. Tuesday, September 22, 6-8 p.m. Register for Zoom link. Tuesday SF Politics 101 with Joel Engardio. SF Politics 101 is a look at how local politics work and the history that shaped San Francisco—brought to life with visuals and narrative storytelling. Tuesday, September 22, 6-7:15 p.m. SPUR Urban Center, 654 Mission Street, S.F. Register to attend. Wednesday Transit Tales: A Storytelling Night. Join SPUR and Muni Diaries at Local Economy for an evening of true stories inspired by riding transit. From unexpected encounters and meet-cutes to funny mishaps and heartfelt moments, Transit Tales celebrates the experiences that make public transportation unforgettable. Wednesday, 5:30-7 p.m. Local Economy, 6028 College Ave, Oakland. Saturday Group Ride: Richmond BART to Point Pinole. Join Bike East Bay for a family-friendly, no-drop group ride to Point Pinole Regional Shoreline. Saturday, September 26, 10:30 a.m.-3 p.m. Starts at Richmond BART Plaza, 1600 Nevin Plaza, Richmond. Saturday Shipwreck Cove Opening. Come see Sunset Dunes’s newest playground. Saturday, September 26, 3 p.m., Sunset Dunes and Kirkham, S.F. Saturday 55 Wine Line Progressive. Ride between Horsies Market & Saloon, Bar Part Time and Ruby Wine on the 55 Dogpatch bus. Saturday, September 26. Three locations in Dogpatch. See SFMTA site for more details on locations and times. Got an event we should know about? Drop us a line.
Lubbock Public Health Director gets statewide award for vaccine advocacy
Lubbock's public health director was honored for her leadership during the historic West Texas measles outbreak and her continuing work to protect communities from vaccine-preventable diseases.
NC leaders call Chemours deal historic, but nearby well owners are still skeptical
Residents in Cedar Creek and Gray’s Creek say the $590 million PFAS settlement will matter only if it produces reliable, safe drinking water.
Bruno Genesio denies he will resign as Marseille manager
It has been a historically bad start to the season for Olympique de Marseille. Granted, there is a context around it, with the siphoning off of assets in order to balance the books and keep promises m...
Spud Drive-In approved as larger entertainment destination
Teton County, Idaho, commissioners have cleared the way for the Spud Drive-In to reopen, unanimously approving plans for a rebuilt theater, restaurant, bar and event venue at the landmark’s historic
Jalen Hurts Makes History In Eagles’ Win vs Titans
The Philadelphia Eagles landed another impressive hero effort from the star quarterback Jalen Hurts on Sunday afternoon in Week 2. Amid the tight victory, which included another clutch showing from Hurts, the veteran passed the former Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz on a historic Eagles list. Jalen Hurts Makes History In Eagles’ Win vs Titans […] The post Jalen Hurts Makes History In Eagles’ Win vs Titans appeared first on HEAVY.
Derek Hough Sends a Direct Message After Backlash Over ‘DWTS' Premiere Scores
Derek Hough is setting the record straight about the historically low scores during the season 35 premiere.
Why politicians should pay more attention to the polls (reprise)
Welcome to the 231st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), a polling newsletter that always welcomes new readers. So please don’t keep TWIP a secret; share it with your friends and colleagues: Share The Week in Polls With all the stories swirling around Reform, JL Partners and political polling, I am finally tearing myself away from talking about the regulation of polling this week - and instead re-running a previous piece reminding us why the solution to problems with polls isn’t simply to ban or ignore them. Rather, we need them to play a vital role in making our politics - and politicians - better. This is followed by summaries of the latest national voting intention polls, seat projections from MRPs and the most recent party leader ratings. Subscribers who pay for the full edition can also read ten insights from the latest polls and analyses, including: A trio of organisations and a pair of professors have been casting their eyes over the Liberal Democrats ahead of the party’s autumn conference; What impact did the summer heatwave have on views on climate change? and Which wins out between chocolate and cheese? If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can read all ten by starting a free trial now: Get FREE 7-day trial For more polling news as it comes in ahead of next week’s edition, you can also follow The Week in Polls on Bluesky. Picking up on my doubt last week about whether or not 35% of British train travellers have tried to order a takeaway for delivery to a railway station or carriage, thank you to reader Iain, who has been in touch to say he has done just that… in India. Another quick pair of updates, this time on the controversies around Reform and polling. Politico has a further scoop - “Farage aide caught in donor sting attended Egypt retreat with JL Partners” - and Ian Dunt has written about the problems with polling too: “Seeing the response of many polling experts in the last few weeks suggests that they are nervous about what is happening and keen to mitigate against it. Seeing the response of journalists, which has been basically non-existent, suggests the precise opposite.” My usual reminder as well: please do hit reply if you’ve spotted a poll, focus group or new piece of poll-based research that you think should be in contention for coverage in a future edition. Thank you! And with that, on with the show. How politicians get public opinion wrong I have written before about the benefits that come from widespread availability of high-quality political polling. We need more polls and more good coverage of polls. However, what I’ve not dug into before is the research into how accurately politicians estimate public opinion on issues. Thankfully we have academic research to tell us. First, the bad news: We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries.1 Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. Walgrave, S., Jansen, A., Sevenans, J., Soontjens, K., Pilet, J.B., Brack, N., Varone, F., Helfer, L., Vliegenthart, R., van der Meer, T., Breunig, C., Bailer, S., Sheffer, L. & Loewen, P.J. (2023a), “Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries”, The Journal of Politics, 85(1): 209-222. The bad news is not quite as bad as that makes it sound because, when asked whether the majority of public opinion was for or against various policies, politicians picked the wrong option ‘only’ 29% of the time. However, this included getting it wrong even when public opinion is far from evenly split on an issue: They do not only get it wrong when the public is divided and hard to read (e.g., when there is a 51%:49% distribution). Seventy percent of the misplacements occur for policies with a relatively clear distribution of at least 60% (dis)agreeing citizens. Moreover, the public scored only slightly worse than politicians, picking the wrong option 2.7 out of 8 times on average, compared with 2.3 times for politicians. Turning to the other measure of accuracy (not which side is in the lead but what the percentage support is for each side), politicians on average were 18 percentage points out in their guesses. Again, this was only slightly better than the public, whose error came in at 21 percentage points.2 Further research, using the same mix of countries, gives a little more comfort about how (in)accurate perceptions are: We show that politicians have a better understanding of public opinion when they think the issue matters to voters. Further, when an issue is personally important to politicians they more accurately estimate their party supporters’ opinions. The results confirm that politicians hold more accurate perceptions of voters’ preferences when they think it is important to do so but not necessarily when the issues actually are important to voters. Butler, C., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K. & Loewen, P.J. (2024), “Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient”, Party Politics: 1–13. Even so, it’s not a good picture. The remedy for this? Politicians should spend more time reading the polls. So forward this newsletter to someone you know… Share For a more general argument against banning polls, see my 2024 piece. Is “Let Bartlet Be Bartlet” good advice or not? The latest episode of my Political Fictions podcast heads across the Atlantic for a dip into one of the political TV classics: Mark and Cory talk about a giant of American political drama for the first time this week, as they tackle The West Wing. They talk about Let Bartlet Be Bartlet, the nineteenth episode of series one. In it, Mark wonders if The West Wing is actually the epitome of the “Boris Johnson school of politics”, Cory outmanoeuvres Mark into confirming we will record a Christmas Special about Love, Actually and they debate whether the central message of this episode has been misunderstood. Cory’s email newsletter is Paperback Rioter and Mark has a family of email newsletters. Subscribe to our newsletter for some additional bonus content and to get alerted whenever a new episode comes out. Our theme tune is “Monkeys Spinning Monkeys” by Kevin MacLeod/incompetech.com and licensed under the Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License. You can also listen to our episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the web or YouTube. Elsewhere from me… [ A Lord's Eye View How to fix the problem of money in our politics Welcome to my latest update on work in the House of Lords. This time I am taking a look at how our political system is regulated, and the protections we need to keep democracy safe from becoming simply a contest to see who has the biggest bank account… Read more 5 days ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Mark Pack ](https://lordseyeview.substack.com/p/how-to-fix-the-problem-of-money-in?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1269283) If you spot a factual error… Borrowing an idea from Stuart Ritchie and others, if you spot a factual error in an edition of this newsletter, I will give you a free 12-month subscription to the paid-for version (or an extra 12 months on your existing one). Factual errors qualify, but grammatical errors or disagreements over interpretation do not, and my decision is final. Messages about both of those are always welcome, though. Voting intention and leadership ratings Here are the latest voting intention polls from different pollsters. It is all pretty static at the moment, with a small and consistent Labour lead in nearly all the polls. The table is also online here, along with explanations about what is included. It is updated regularly throughout the week as new polls are released. Next are the seat projections from MRPs, also sorted by fieldwork dates, listing those which are based on dedicated fieldwork (rather than models based on averages of other polls). Because such MRPs are published infrequently, some of the entries below are quite old. Finally, here is a summary of leadership ratings, with a graph from PollCheck: Detailed numbers from the latest polls are online here, and both that and the graph are updated regularly throughout the week as new data comes out. For historical figures on both voting intention and leader approval stretching back to the 1930s, including Parliamentary by-election polls, see PollBase. Catch up on the previous two editions [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ A crisis point for political polling Sep 13 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Extra questions about the polls in Reform’s funding scandal Sep 6 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) My privacy policy and other legal information are available here. Links to purchase books or other items are usually affiliate links which pay a commission for each sale. Quotes from social media messages are occasionally lightly edited for punctuation and clarity. If you are subscribed to other email lists of mine, please note that unsubscribing from this one will not automatically remove you from the others. If you wish to be removed from all my lists, simply reply to this email to let me know. A quintet of Lib Dem polling analyses, and 9 other polling insights you shouldn’t miss The following ten findings from the most recent polls and analyses are only for subscribers who pay for the full edition, but you can sign up for a free trial to read them straight away. Ahead of the start of Liberal Democrat conference, we have a trio of organisations and a pair of professors with pieces out about Ed Davey’s party:
Justin Jefferson’s next catch will be historic one for Vikings
Justin Jefferson can make Minnesota Vikings history Sunday against the Chicago Bears, needing just one catch to surpass Hall of Famer Randy Moss for second-most receptions in franchise history.
Trump says planned arch will be ‘military complex’ for drones, snipers
The president’s new claims about the triumphal arch come as veterans groups, historic preservationists and others attempt to stop the project.
Chicago Athletic Association: Inside the private club turned hotel
I stayed at the Chicago Athletic Association, a historic gentlemen's club turned luxury hotel with Gilded Age charm and whimsical designs.
‘Crisis even bigger than Covid’: American business owners are barely getting by
The historic supply chain struggles that America’s business owners face show why resurgent inflation will not be easily resolved – even if the war ended.
'Trespasses' review: Come for the romance, stay for the historical drama
This adaptation of Louise Kennedy's 2022 debut novel on PBS follows a clandestine affair between a young Catholic schoolteacher and a Protestant barrister during the Troubles in Ireland.
From vaudeville to Broadway, Palace Theatre has evolved for 100 years
The historic Palace Theatre is hitting the century mark this year! Celebrate with special events through early December.
Liverpool make Premier League intentions clear with historic announcement
Liverpool are undoubtedly one of the biggest clubs in world football, but the last 18 months on the pitch haven't reflected that. Since winning the Premier League in 2025, the Reds have disappointed,...
Bristol, Blue Star ‘breakup’ has Ivywild hallways abuzz
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What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
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