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The Quintessential Trump-era Politician
In 2020, I wrote an article about collaboration and collaborators. The title was History Will Judge the Complicit, and it started with the story of two famous East Germans, Markus Wolf and Wolfgang Leonhard, who both landed in East Berlin just after the end of the war. Although they came from very similar backgrounds, the former stuck with the regime, eventually becoming its spy boss; the latter, horrified by the brutal reality of Soviet-style communism, escaped. By way of juxtaposition, I also wrote about Lyndsey Graham and Mitt Romney. These two men also made very different decisions when confronted by Donald Trump’s assault on the ideals that they had both grown up believing: A glance at their biographies would not have led many to predict what happened next. On paper, Graham would have seemed, in 2016, like the man with deeper ties to the military, to the rule of law, and to an old-fashioned idea of American patriotism and American responsibility in the world. Romney, by contrast, with his shifts between the center and the right, with his multiple careers in business and politics, would have seemed less deeply attached to those same old-fashioned patriotic ideals. Most of us register soldiers as loyal patriots, and management consultants as self-interested. We assume people from small towns in South Carolina are more likely to resist political pressure than people who have lived in many places. Intuitively, we think that loyalty to a particular place implies loyalty to a set of values. But in this case the clichés were wrong. It was Graham who made excuses for Trump’s abuse of power. It was Graham—a JAG Corps lawyer—who downplayed the evidence that the president had attempted to manipulate foreign courts and blackmail a foreign leader into launching a phony investigation into a political rival. It was Graham who abandoned his own stated support for bipartisanship and instead pushed for a hyperpartisan Senate Judiciary Committee investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden’s son. It was Graham who played golf with Trump, who made excuses for him on television, who supported the president even as he slowly destroyed the American alliances—with Europeans, with the Kurds—that Graham had defended all his life. By contrast, it was Romney who, in February, became the only Republican senator to break ranks with his colleagues, voting to impeach the president. “Corrupting an election to keep oneself in office,” he said, is “perhaps the most abusive and destructive violation of one’s oath of office that I can imagine.” In the wake of Graham’s unexpected death on Saturday, I wrote about him again. He was, in many ways, the quintessential politician of Trump’s Washington, a man who shifted 180 degrees. Graham had been a fervent American patriot, proud reserve officer and military lawyer; he became one of the most important defenders of a president who believes soldiers are “suckers and losers” and shows no respect for law of any kind. As his politics changed, his language grew coarser and his behavior grew worse: He urged Israel to “level the place” in Gaza, and insulted the Danish prime minister in Munich, prompting a colleague, Senator Elissa Slotkin, to issue an apology. Here’s an excerpt from the article, which you can read in The Atlantic (gift link here) Like his close friend John McCain, Graham believed that America should stand at the center of a broad democratic alliance. The few times I met him were in that context, at the Munich Security Conference or at other European-American gatherings, which he once attended with great regularity. He also took seriously the practice of American democracy at home. In a 2014 conversation with The Atlantic, he described himself as a pragmatic politician who eschewed populist slogans. “I know Washington is broken, but what’s broken about it is everybody yelling and nobody trying to fix it,” he said. “I’m trying.” When Donald Trump first appeared in U.S. politics, Graham recognized him immediately for what he was: the spokesman for an alien ideology, one radically different from the idealistic patriotism that Graham had practiced and preached since childhood. Trump privately mocked the military that Graham loved as nothing but “suckers and losers.” He put falsehoods, cynicism, and personal greed at the center of his politics, while expressing disdain for transparency, accountability, and democracy itself. In 2015, Graham described Trump as a “race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot” who should “go to hell.” Also as a “nutjob.” When Trump won, Graham understood, as did so many others, that he would have to make some important choices. For a while, he went silent. In the spring of 2016, I saw him at one of those conferences in Europe. He seemed too depressed to speak. But then, like many other Republicans—and, more important, like many other people who have lived under political occupation or experienced radical regime change—he made the decision to abandon his previous ideals, to bury the patriotism that was once so important to him, and to become, instead, a loud, opportunistic collaborator. As I wrote in 2020, it’s very hard to look in to anyone’s heart and to understand their motivations from the outside. But it does seem that Graham had a deep need to be relevant, to be in the game, to be a player, at any cost. And that, rather than any particular achievement, is what he will be remembered for. Continuing to monitor conflicts of interest, ostentatious emoluments, outright corruption and policy changes that will facilitate outright corruption. (Read my original article, Kleptocracy Inc and check out the SNF Agora Institute chart) June 27 Trump diverted funds from more than 900 projects nationwide—including safety upgrades at national parks—to finance beautification projects around Washington, including $700,000 used to fix a White House walkway. June 28 After a years-long Department of Justice investigation into Abbott Laboratories over its management of a baby formula facility where potentially deadly bacteria turned up enough evidence to criminally charge the firm, top department officials instead opted for a financial penalty—illustrating the department’s move away from strict corporate enforcement under the Trump administration. June 29 Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stacked the Defense Policy Board—which is charged with providing independent national security recommendations to the Office of the Secretary of Defense—with Trump allies, including tech billionaire Marc Andreessen, who has invested in defense contractors like OpenAI and SpaceX, after purging the panel last year. Trump purchased between $1 million and $5 million worth of stock in Axon—which makes about 90% of US tasers—two weeks before ICE solicited bids for a $220 million taser contract. The White House unveiled limited-edition US passports for America’s 250th birthday, featuring a portrait of Trump overlaid on the Declaration of Independence. June 30 Trump made around $1.2 billion from his various crypto companies last year, including more than $500 million from World Liberty Financial and $600 million from sales of his meme coin. Trump is considering issuing 250 pardons to commemorate America’s 250th birthday. These are expected to be largely doled out through the Office of the Pardon Attorney’s informal network of intermediaries. White-collar defense attorneys say they can typically win pardons for clients for $2 million. Last year, Trump administration officials awarded a no-bid contract worth up to $500 million to Clark Construction for the White House ballroom—negotiations in which the president was directly involved. July 1 The Amazon MGM Studios documentary about Melania Trump earned the First Lady more than $10 million. Trump made hundreds of individual stock purchases worth as much as $12.8 million the day before his announcement pausing “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days sent the S&P 500 soaring nearly 10%—one of the largest single-day gains ever. Mar-a-Lago and Trump National Doral saw record surges in revenue during Trump’s first year in office, earning $77.5 million and $121.9 million respectively, compared to average annual revenues of $25 million and $75 million during Trump’s first term. Entities across the Persian Gulf paid more than $300 million to Trump’s businesses last year, including $263 million from the sale of half his stake in World Liberty Financial to a firm backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a top UAE royal and brother of the country’s president. Kash Patel failed to properly disclose his stock purchase of a Department of Justice contractor, MicroStrategy, worth up to $250,000 last year, despite laws requiring disclosure within 45 days of the trade. July 2 Trump has been directing administration officials to steer more government contracts—so far worth more than $2.4 billion—to Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin aerospace firm, after Amazon gave $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund, donated to the White House ballroom project, and reached a $40 million deal to license a Melania Trump documentary. Alongside the billions he made from cryptocurrency last year, Trump earned millions of dollars from real estate licensing fees, including $21 million from organizations in the UAE and $9.2 million in Saudi Arabia, along with smaller sums from merchandise sales, including $4.7 million from Trump Watches and $35,920 from 45 Guitar, a guitar brand endorsed by the president. House Democrats accused consultants tied to the Trump administration of financial fraud, alleging they gave prospective donors to America250—the bipartisan committee created by Congress to celebrate the nation’s semiquincentennial—the banking and routing numbers for Freedom 250, the White House’s fund for events like the UFC cage fight. Democrats also allege that Freedom 250’s CEO traveled to the World Economic Forum in Davos to solicit donations from foreign government officials and business leaders. The Trump administration’s proposed rollback of gun regulations would lift the prohibition on mailing handguns to individuals, a significant win for GrabAGun—the direct-to-consumer firearm retailer on whose board Donald Trump Jr. sits and in which he holds a 1.1% ownership stake. GrabAGun currently must rely on a middleman to transfer firearms to customers. Trump’s financial disclosure revealed that he made more than 21,000 securities trades during his first year back in office, growing his investment account to at least $858 million across stakes in around 1,600 companies, compared to the 13 total trades Joe Biden made during his entire presidency. July 4 Nearly 1 million people who bought the president’s meme coin—Trump Coin—collectively lost $3.8 billion on the token, while he walked away with $636 million. July 6 Shares of Dell closed up 4.4% after Trump recommended people buy the firm’s computers during a speech announcing the launch of Trump investment accounts for children, boosting the more than $1 million worth of shares the president owns in the company. July 9 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh named crypto investor and Trump ally Marc Andreessen to a task force aimed at modernizing the Federal Reserve, including rethinking its approach to inflation—a key factor keeping interest rates elevated. Palm Beach International Airport has officially changed its name to Trump International Airport—a move that will require Florida to pay royalties to the president’s family for licensing his name. I was there a few months ago, during a trip to Barcelona. The sculptures were a revelation, I’d never seen so many together before. Each one has its own personality. Enjoy the good weather, if you are lucky enough to have it. History Will Judge the Complicit The Quintessential Politician Autocracy Inc Open Letters, from Anne Applebaum is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe
AB Science ends three studies in multiple sclerosis, other immune conditions
The trials, which were testing the tyrosine kinase inhibitor masitinib, had previously been paused. AB Science’s decision not to resume them was a matter of prioritization, not safety, the biotech said.
BELGIUM KNOCKED OUT AFTER SPAIN'S LATE WINNER
Alexis Saelemaekers and Koni De Winter's 2026 World Cup journey comes to an end in the quarter-finals. Belgium, featuring the two Rossoneri, were beaten 2-1 by Spain, who secured their place in the se...
New exhibits make their debut at the Explora Science Center
Local Reporting You Can Trust
World Cup: After Thibaut Courtois’ injury, one mistake sent Belgium home and Spain through
Skaneateles Boat Show Offers Classic Exhibits, Entertainment
Skaneateles, N.Y. - The Antique and Classic Boat Show returns to Clift Park July 24-26, with dozens of exhibitors eager to reconnect and share their love of antique boating. Hours are 3 p.m. to dusk Friday, 9 a.m. to dusk Saturday and 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Sunday. Admission is free.
Ag Progress Days showcases college research, AI tool and animal health updates
Visitors to the College of Agricultural Sciences Exhibits Building during Penn State’s 2026 Ag Progress Days, Aug. 11-13, will have the chance to learn more about the college’s cutting-edge research driving innovation in modern agriculture.
Women Who Win to Host Inaugural International Business Pitch Competition at Zeta Phi Beta Sorority, Incorporated's 2026 Grand Boulé
/PRNewswire/ -- Women Who Win, the signature economic empowerment initiative of Zeta Phi Beta Sorority, Incorporated, is making history by hosting its...
Go inside the Tybee Island Marine Science Center’s new summer exhibits
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Fort Bend County Fair Announces 2026 Entertainment Lineup Featuring Sawyer Brown, Pat Green
ROSENBERG, Texas (Covering Katy News) — The Fort Bend County Fair has announced its entertainment lineup for its 90th annual celebration, featuring a mix of Texas country stars, Tejano favorites and nationally recognized performers during Championship BBQ Weekend and the fair's 10-day run. The 2026 Fort Bend County Fair begins with Championship BBQ Weekend on Sept. 18-19, followed by the fair Sept. 25 through Oct. 4. The entertainment schedule opens Friday, Sept. 18, with Tejano group Los Morales, followed by Texas country artist Cole Phillips on Saturday, Sept. 19. Phillips has gained attention for his traditional country sound influenced by classic honky-tonk music. The fair officially opens Friday, Sept. 25, with Tyce Delk, a New Mexico native whose touring schedule has expanded across the country. Country music veterans Sawyer Brown will headline Saturday, Sept. 26. The band, whose career spans more than four decades, remains known for hits including "Some Girls Do," "The Race Is On" and "Thank God for You." Go Tejano Day on Sunday, Sept. 27, will feature Prófugos de Nuevo León, along with performances by Los Rinches and Grupo Zenio. The second week of the fair begins Wednesday, Sept. 30, with Bellville singer-songwriter David Lewis, a recent Texas Country Music Association Male Artist of the Year nominee. Oklahoma Red Dirt artist Josh Meloy will perform Thursday, Oct. 1. Texas country star Pat Green returns to the Fort Bend County Fair stage Friday, Oct. 2. Green, whose career includes three Grammy Award nominations, has sold more than 2 million albums and amassed more than 200 million career streams. He is best known for songs including "Wave on Wave" and "Carry On." Country newcomer Vincent Mason will perform Saturday, Oct. 3. Mason has accumulated more than 500 million career streams and was recently nominated for Academy of Country Music New Male Artist of the Year. The fair concludes Sunday, Oct. 4, with Texas music legend Gary P. Nunn, whose "London Homesick Blues" remains one of the state's most recognizable songs. Weekend visitors also can enjoy performances on Music Row by J Paul Jr. & the Zydeco Nubreeds, Southern County Line, Los Rangerz and Horizon. The Fort Bend County Fair Association, a nonprofit organization, supports youth, agriculture and education. According to the association, it has awarded more than $2 million in scholarships during the past decade and generated $1.4 million through its 2025 youth auctions. Tickets go on sale at 10 a.m. Friday, July 10. Guests are encouraged to purchase tickets in advance and select the specific day they plan to attend, as tickets are valid only for the date purchased. Admission includes entry to the fairgrounds, access to the carnival, shopping, exhibits, food vendors and, when scheduled, admission to the rodeo and that day's concert. Season passes and single-day tickets will be available. For tickets and additional information, visit fortbendcountyfair.com or call the Fair Office at 281-342-6171. The address of the Fairgrounds is 4310 Texas 36 S in Rosenberg. 2026 Fort Bend County Fair Entertainment Schedule Championship BBQ Weekend Friday, Sept. 18: Los Morales Saturday, Sept. 19: Cole Phillips Fair Entertainment Friday, Sept. 25: Tyce Delk Saturday, Sept. 26: Sawyer Brown Sunday, Sept. 27 (Go Tejano Day): Prófugos de Nuevo León, Los Rinches and Grupo Zenio Wednesday, Sept. 30: David Lewis Thursday, Oct. 1: Josh Meloy Friday, Oct. 2: Pat Green Saturday, Oct. 3: Vincent Mason Sunday, Oct. 4: Gary P. Nunn × Expand FBCF Fort Bend County Fair 2026 Artist Lineup
Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve breaks WNBA's all-time wins record with 380th career victory
Cheryl Reeve broke a tie with Mike Thibault with the Lynx's win over the Sun on Wednesday night.
What's in Store for the NACCHO360 2026 Event
Check out these NACCHO360 sessions featuring our staff and partners, and visit us at Booth 111 in the exhibit hall.
A shoebox-sized satellite could expose hidden nuclear weapons in space
There’s never been a good method to check for violations of the Outer Space Treaty’s prohibition of nuclear weapons in space.
New Horizons awakens after longest hibernation, resumes science mission 9.5 billion km from Earth
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UNE partners in Biddeford community exhibition bridging coastal science and art
The free exhibit, “Sensing the Coast: An Art-Science Collaboration” opens Friday, July 10, and explores coastal change through artwork inspired by scientific research, combining visual art, sound, photography, and community storytelling and featuring works and research pieces by UNE students and faculty.
Tokyo Game Show 2026 unveils exhibitor list, including PlayStation and Square Enix
TGS 2026 will be the show’s first five-day event…
Tokyo Game Show 2026 exhibitors list and main visual announced
Computer Entertainment Supplier’s Association has announced the list of exhibitors and main visual for Tokyo Game Show 2026, which will run from September 17 to 21 at Makuhari Messe in Chiba,…
NASA's New Horizons spacecraft wakes from its longest hibernation in good health
Following its longest hibernation period ever of nearly a year, NASA's New Horizons spacecraft has emerged in good health and is ready to begin transmitting science data gathered in the distant Kuiper ...
Transgender student drops challenge against Arizona’s school sports prohibition
An attorney is dropping her challenge against an Arizona law prohibiting the participation of transgender girls in girls’ sports.
NASA’s New Horizons Spacecraft Wakes from Hibernation in Good Health
Following its longest hibernation period ever of nearly a year, NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft has emerged in good health and is ready to begin transmitting
NASA’s New Horizons Spacecraft Wakes from Hibernation in Good Health
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Everyday Poetry
My worlds of poetry and painting converged in mid-June during what has become a delightful event — volunteering at the hanging of a new exhibit at Artspiration Frederick.
Boonville-Oneida County Fair Returns July 28
The Boonville-Oneida County Fair will soon bring families and visitors together for its 138th year with a week of exhibits, rides and live entertainment.
White House Blasts Smithsonian History Exhibits For 'Radical' Activism
A new Trump administration report singles out references to 'Hamilton,' drag queens and Mickey Mouse.
Report: Bayern Munich sporting chief under pressure to sell players
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Science History Institute presents "Flash! Bang! Boom! A History of Fireworks" through July 2027
There have been fireworks aplenty to celebrate America's 250th anniversary, but have you ever wondered where fireworks came from? Or how does it work? The Science History Institute has a free exhibition on view that's sure to spark your interest.
Arizona Science Center to host Julia Child exhibition exploring science, food and culture
Arizona Science Center will host the traveling exhibition Julia Child: A Recipe for Life from Saturday, June 20, 2026, through Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026.
Ben Franklin Bridge's 100th anniversary celebration will feature live entertainment and special light shows on July 11
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Arts and Entertainment Agenda, July 3-9
‘Knox Kronenberg: An Exhibition Honoring 250 Years of America,’ July 2-4 Through the stark beauty of the American West, a special exhibition entitled ‘Knox Kronenberg: An Exhibition” will honor 250 years of America from 11:30...
The Next Chapter for Founder-Led Beauty Brands
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This satellite constellation transformed earth science by creatively tuning in to GPS signals
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DC sports fans have a chance to showcase their favorite memorabilia in new exhibit
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Trans Sports Ruling Puts Pressure on States Without Bans
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Inside the new space shuttle ‘Endeavour’ exhibit at California Science Center
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Free exhibition at the Science History Institute breaks down the flash, bang and boom of fireworks
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Arkansas basketball coach John Calipari to be inducted into Memphis Sports Hall of Fame
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The Fleet Science Center just got a major upgrade
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This Jibber-Jabber Night in Acadiana prohibits jibber jabber. Here's why it works.
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Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed impresses in Air‑It‑Out exhibition
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Confederate flag displayed at N.C. exhibit at America's State Fair
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Small Creatures, Big Mission: NMHM Bugapalooza 2026 Connects Science and Military Readiness
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Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Inside the Oregon coast's hands-on marine science center
The Charleston Marine Life Center offers touch tanks, whale skeletons and hands-on exhibits while connecting visitors with marine science on the Oregon coast.
13 things to do this weekend around the Seattle area
From the Seattle Pride Parade to new art gallery exhibitions, here are the latest local things to do around the Seattle area.
13 things to do this weekend around the Seattle area
From the Seattle Pride Parade to new art gallery exhibitions, here are the latest local things to do around the Seattle area.
Moody Center announces exhibition exploring math, science and tech rooted in Indigenous knowledge systems
Through a framing of North, Central and South America as interconnected regions, “Radiant Geometries: Vectors of Knowledge from the Indigenous Americas” brings together contemporary Indigenous and Latin American artists whose practices illuminate knowledge as a living technology, through which the mathematical, metaphysical and artistic realms converge.
How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
New exhibit housing Endeavour Space Shuttle set to open at California Science Center in November
The Endeavour Space Shuttle will be housed in the newly built Samuel Oschin Shuttle Gallery.
2026 Short Course: Putting Social Science in Motion: Concept and Method (QMMR) -
Putting Social Science in Motion: Concept and Method (QMMR) Half Day Short Course | Register here 2026 APSA Annual Meeting & Exhibition — Boston, MA 1:30 pm – 5:30 pm This short course addresses both [...]
Science Decoupling Hurts Human Progress
Science magazine has reported that in May, several members of the U.S. Congress introduced the Securing Innovation and Research from Adversaries (SIRA) Act, a bill that would prohibit U.S. researchers from using federal funds to collaborate with 'blacklisted' Chinese entities. These include Chinese institutions and individuals. Joint research projects, co-authored papers, data sharing, personnel exchanges, and even the co-supervision of students would all be prohibited.
Federal Citizenship Data Tool Cannot Be Used to Screen Voters, Judge Rules
A federal judge ruled that the Trump administration’s providing federal data to states to check and purge their voter rolls violated several laws prohibiting the disclosure.
A New Bill Would Ban Lawmakers From Betting on Politics and Elections in Prediction Markets
CNBC’s Emily Wilkins reported last week that House lawmakers have introduced legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from placing wagers in prediction markets on political, policy, or election outcomes. “House lawmakers are just dropping a brand new bill that would ban lawmakers from making any bets in prediction markets ... A New Bill Would Ban Lawmakers From Betting on Politics and Elections in Prediction Markets
McWane Science Center unveils new live animal exhibit called Survival of the Slowest
McWane Science Center unveils new live animal exhibit called Survival of the Slowest
Gannon-Doak role 'main topic' for Scotland
Scott Allan believes Ben Gannon-Doak's role in Scotland's final World Cup Group C fixture with Brazil is "the main topic" in how the Scots prepare. The winger started the win against Haiti, playing a role in the winning goal, and came off the bench in the loss to Morocco. "I feel like when we land on the ball, we never really know what the next pass is," former Celtic and Hibernian midfielder Allan told the BBC's Scottish Football Podcast.
Germany could scrap law banning insults against politicians
Germany's special law prohibiting the insulting of politicians has led to cases that many people consider absurd. Some members of the government want to abolish the law; others think there's a good reason to retain it.
Mississippi Arts and Entertainment Experience unveils new exhibit with panel from author
Daily recording of WTOK's Newscenter 11 at 10
Juneteenth festival draws visitors to Peterboro
The Peterboro Juneteenth Freedom Folk Festival featured music, exhibits and local history while raising funds for the Gerrit Smith Estate.
Mississippi Arts and Entertainment Experience unveils new exhibit with panel from author
“John Jennings: Build Your World” explores worldbuilding in media, representation in fiction, and expression through art.
Dinosaurs invaded downtown St. Paul for blockbuster 1986 Science Museum exhibit
The brontosaurus and a 10-foot-tall Tyrannosaurus rex had been floated down the Mississippi River from Minneapolis that morning on coal barges to drum up publicity for the exhibit. It worked.
ENTERTAINMENT: Fayetteville art exhibit seeks entries; book festival names ‘headliner’
Aug. 10 is the deadline for Northwest Arkansas visual artists to submit works to Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center for the sixth annual “Our Art, Our Region, Our Time” group art exhibition.
The first primates may have evolved in the cold, not the tropics
A surprising new study suggests the earliest primates didn't originate in tropical forests but in cold, dry parts of North America. Some may have even survived seasonal Arctic conditions by slowing their metabolism or hibernating. Researchers found that dramatic climate shifts, rather than warmth, played a major role in driving primate evolution and expansion. The discovery reshapes our understanding of how our own lineage began.
CT Culture Corner: Shepard Fairey exhibit, Somi concert this week
The artist responsible for Obama's "Hope" poster and the "Obey" graphic comes to New London Museum, Irish dance in Torrington and who wrote the classic "Danny Boy," anyway?
'Proactive' Johansson's Motherwell appointment 'very exciting'
Former Hibernian player Kevin Nicol believes "proactive" Alfred Johansson's appointment as Motherwell manager is "very exciting". Nicol is assistant at Fredrikstad, who play in the same Norwegian top flight as Johansson's former club Rosenborg. Swede Johansson, 35, replaces Jens Berthel Askou, who became a hugely popular figure with the Fir Park faithful.
'A completely different story': 300 million-year-old fossils reveal the first vertebrate land dwellers weren't what we thought, researchers claim
Our ancient four-legged ancestors didn't have an amphibian-like life cycle when they began walking on land, according to a new study of rare fossils found near Chicago.
Texas Science & Natural History Museum opens new bat exhibit
During summer sunsets, Austin locals and tourists alike eagerly wait near the Congress Avenue bridge. Each evening, nearly 1.5 million bats emerge from underneath the bridge to begin their nightly flight to find food, covering the orange sky with black silhouettes. Open until August 2027, the Texas Science & Natural History Museum’s newest exhibit, “Masters...
Fossils challenge assumptions on how animals adapted to land
Scientists have long posited the earliest water animals to transition to land had amphibious tadpole features, going through a metamorphosis akin to that of today's frogs.That's not what we would expe...
Exploring the science of kindness at Grandma’s Casita exhibition
Think about a place that evokes nostalgia. For many, Grandma’s house comes to mind. So, when Explora set out to expand its Science of Kindness Exhibition, Grandma’s Casita of Kindness was brought t…
A textbook assumption about early land vertebrates may be wrong
Three species that lived about 308 million years ago challenge the idea that the first land vertebrates underwent amphibian-like metamorphosis.
Baby crocodile-like fossils just blew up a long-held evolution theory
Turns out, the first animals to walk on land weren't amphibians.
Business News: Basel Returns To Watch Calendar With April Basilia Watch & Jewelry Show
Baselworld is defunct, but Basilia aims to fill a gap for accessible watch and jewelry brands, but no details yet on who might participate among 400 exhibitors.
May moving on as Hibs reshape backroom staff
Eddie May is to leave his coaching position at Hibernian at the end of June, ending 12 years of service at Easter Road. The 58-year-old made over 100 appearances for the club between 1985-89 and returned in 2014, working across different roles in the academy, player development and with the first team. In June 2024, May he was chosen as an assistant coach, along with Liam Craig, as David Gray took on the position of head coach.
Tybee Island Marine Science Center debuts new interactive exhibits
The Tybee Island Marine Science Center has many new exhibits.
Connect with local businesses at Amherst Area Expo
The Amherst Area Chamber of Commerce will host the Amherst Area Business Expo on June 24, featuring over 30 local exhibitors.
2026 Short Course Highlight: The Disrupted World: Politics and Economics in Transition -
The Disrupted World: Politics and Economics in Transition Full Day Short Course | Register here 2026 APSA Annual Meeting & Exhibition — Boston, MA 9:00 am – 5:00 pm Workshop Overview The global political economy [...]
Main Library exhibition honors legacy businesses
The San Francisco Public Library is this summer exhibiting archival items from businesses that have operated in The City for at least 30 years.
Federal judge orders Trump administration to restore science and history to signs and exhibits at US…
A federal judge in Massachusetts on Friday ordered Trump officials to restore all signs and exhibits in US national parks that were changed as a part of the administration's efforts to remove any purp...
Exhibit at Griffin Museum of Science and Industry re-creates Anne Frank's hidden annex
A historical exhibit at Chicago's Griffin Museum of Science and Industry is giving visitors a chance to walk through a re-creation of Anne Frank's hidden annex.
Peterboro festival to mark Juneteenth celebration
The Peterboro Freedom Folk Festival on June 20 will feature live music, exhibits and food vendors at the Gerrit Smith Estate.
Science & Medicine: Relaxing excited neurons may lead to more effective treatments for schizophrenia
A new medication to treat schizophrenia has been developed by scientists who discovered that a neuron that inhibits the activity of other cells may be in short supply in those with the disorder.
Is Beaten-Down Phibro Animal Health Stock a Buy Following an Insider Purchase of 10,000 Shares?
This animal health provider, serving global livestock markets, reported a notable insider buy in its latest SEC filing.
‘Legislated out of business’: TN dispensaries face ‘difficult decisions’ ahead of new statewide THCA ban
Some Middle Tennessee hemp retailers may not be able to continue operating after June 30, as a new prohibition on THCA products takes effect.
Trump admin must restore displays at national parks by July 4, judge rules
Federal judge orders exhibits and signs on topics like slavery and climate change that were removed be put back at parks and monuments by July 4th.
Trump administration must re-install exhibits on slavery, climate change and other topics at national parks, judge rules
President Donald Trump last year directed the Interior Department to make changes to parks, monuments and memorials to address any “false revision of history.”
Trump administration must restore history, science materials at parks, US judge rules
A federal judge ordered the Trump administration on Friday to reinstall exhibits and signs touching on topics like slavery and climate change that it had removed from parks and monuments nationwide.
Trump administration must restore history, science materials at parks, US judge rules
A federal judge ordered the Trump administration on Friday to reinstall exhibits and signs touching on topics like slavery and climate change that it had removed from parks and monuments nationwide "that do not align with its preferred narrative."
Museum of Science and Industry marks Anne Frank's birthday with free admission
To commemorate Anne Frank's birthday, Chicago's Museum of Science and Industry is offering free admission to the museum and its exhibit on her legacy.
R.I. to make crash data public after years of secrecy
The House and Senate also passed three bills in response to ICE actions, prohibiting civil arrests at R.I. courthouses without a valid judicial warrant.
Deadline x Regal’s “Future Of Storytelling For The Big Screen” Event To Convene Hollywood Leaders Shaping Next Era Of Theatrical Exhibition
On Monday, Regal Global Entertainment and Deadline are hosting the industry panel “Future of Storytelling for the Big Screen” with the studios bosses, execs and creators who are redefining it. The lis...
Big dreams and even bigger possibilities possible with Science Museum Oklahoma's Barbie experience
Science Museum Oklahoma has a brand-new exhibit celebrating an iconic doll that has inspired children to imagine big through her many careers.
KU museums highlight global art, science during World Cup
Two KU museums are highlighting global connections this summer with exhibitions tied to the World Cup games in the Kansas City area.
The largest scorpion to walk the Earth was the size of a baseball bat
Scientists describe a baseball bat-size scorpion — the world’s largest — and suggest that the 400 million-year-old creature was also amphibious.
Serena Williams and the coming reckoning with GLP-1s and performance enhancement
GLP-1s are not prohibited; the way they work means they might never be. Anti-doping authorities are still monitoring how athletes use them.
New Honolulu art exhibit to explore nature’s patterns in art and science
Honolulu artist Taiji Terasaki’s “Hawaiian Landscapes: Earth Within Us” opens June 16 at American Savings Bank, running through Oct. 2.
There’s more money in politics than ever. Here’s one way Rhode Island can fight back.
The Rhode Island Corporate Power Reset Act would also redefine corporations in a way that prohibits political spending.