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OpenAI sets up 'warroom' to fix Codex limit issues
OpenAI investigates Codex's usage limit depletion that's impacting some users. The company has reset user caps to address the problem.
Why scientists fear we're missing evidence of extraterrestrial life
Scientists are raising concerns that we may be overlooking evidence of extraterrestrial life even when it is present. Hidden biosignatures, limitations in detection technology, and assumptions about what life should look like can all create dangerous false negatives. The researchers say future missions should focus not only on finding life, but also on understanding how signs of life could be missed.
A massive asteroid slammed into the North Sea and triggered a 330-foot tsunami
Scientists have finally confirmed the origin of the mysterious Silverpit Crater beneath the North Sea. New evidence shows that an asteroid about 160 meters wide struck the seabed roughly 43 to 46 million years ago. The impact triggered a tsunami more than 100 meters high and left behind a crater that geologists debated for years.
Building Community, Capacity, and Collaboration Through gmhCONNECT | Johns Hopkins Center for Global Mental Health
Doctoral trainee Yesenia Garcia shares her experience at gmhCONNECT, a training and mentoring program for global mental health researchers.
Leaked A20 Pro Image Hints at iPhone 18 Pro Performance Gains
An alleged image of the iPhone 18 Pro motherboard has leaked online, showing the A20 Pro chip will use a new packaging technology that should offer notable performance gains over the previous model. The leaked image, which has been shared by the accounts "WHYLAB" and "Ice Universe" on Weibo, appears to show the A20 Pro chip integrated into TSMC's new packaging architecture, known as Wafer-Level Multi-Chip Module (WMCM) technology.
Rocket Lab Buys Satellite Operator Iridium in Bid to Challenge SpaceX
The deal would give Rocket Lab control over a satellite fleet and access to wireless resources it could use to compete with SpaceX.
Think You Should Wait Before Drinking Your First Cup of Coffee? Science Says There's No Need (or Benefit)
Research shows when you drink your first cup of coffee has no impact on afternoon energy levels. Or hydration. Or anything, aside from how you like to start your day.
From invention to impact: Hong Kong Science Fair gives young innovators a wider stage
Organised by the Hong Kong Innovation Foundation, with Sino Group as Principal Patron and the Innovation, Technology and Industry Bureau as Supporting Bureau, the Fifth Hong Kong Science Fair has drawn to a close. Students are already looking beyond their prototypes, with international exchanges and future applications now firmly in sight.
Just hopes agent is 'busy' after World Cup impact
Elijah Just hopes his agent is "busy at the moment" as the New Zealand midfielder hinted at a possible summer exit from Motherwell after impressing at the World Cup. Just only joined Motherwell from Danish club Horsens a year ago and is under contract until next summer, with the Scottish Premiership club having an option of extending that by a further year. "The World Cup has given me added belief and also motivation to keep pushing," Just told the NZ Herald.
America 250: L.A. Threads its Fabric
A decade ago, fashion newcomer Ari Jogiel turned a hat-making passion project into a one-stop-shop garment factory. At his namesake full-package company,
Uneven access to radiology AI could deepen healthcare disparities
New Neiman research explores how Medicare's New Technology Add-On Payment has impacted use of an AI triage tool for pinpointing severe strokes.
Experts bet World Cup wagers will bring Mass. big tax revenue
Experts say the tournament is on pace to be the biggest sports betting event in history, bringing new revenue to the state. But some fear it carries public health costs, too.
Experts bet World Cup wagers will bring Mass. big tax revenue
Experts say the tournament is on pace to be the biggest sports betting event in history, bringing new revenue to the state. But some fear it carries public health costs, too.
Editorial: Keep up congressional pushback against Trump’s anti-science agenda
For about a decade, hundreds of deep-sea buoys off America’s coasts have been monitoring the conditions of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The streams of publicly available data they produce inform weather reports, generate valuable information about the planet’s changing climate and help the maritime industry and even the military maneuver the high seas.
Multiple sclerosis affects social life and work beyond physical health
Multiple sclerosis (MS) can have a substantial impact on many aspects of life beyond physical health, with 51% of people reporting that the disease affects their social life and 48% reporting that it affects their work, according to new research presented at the European Academy of Neurology (EAN) Congress 2026.
Anxiety drives child mental health referrals past one million
Demand is soaring beyond capacity, meaning children in England wait years for help with various conditions.
These fat-filled brain cells may be making multiple sclerosis worse
Scientists have uncovered a surprising clue that may help explain why multiple sclerosis (MS) progresses rapidly in some people but not others. In brain tissue from patients with severe MS, researchers found large numbers of “foamy” immune cells packed with fat droplets after absorbing damaged myelin. These overloaded cells appear to switch from helping repair the brain to fueling ongoing damage and inflammation.
Orlando Magic Have Something to Prove After Latest Power Rankings
New head coach Sean Sweeney faces immense pressure to transform Orlando's talented core into postseason contenders and silence doubters following a mediocre mid-pack ranking and trade rumors.
Indian Health Center’s grief vigil offers space for remembrance
Gerald L. Ignace Indian Health Center gathers local Indigenous community to find solace in remembrance and grief.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Commentary: Putting students before politics
After another school year, superintendents across Texas are not just packing up classrooms; we are staring down spreadsheets, trying to piece together next year’s budgets. It is a grueling annual...
Assessing the claim that the U.S. government is abandoning science
The people who do not trust science today would probably like to be able to. And the people who do trust it may simply be unaware of the problems.
Galaxy Z's days are apparently numbered: Accessories point to a very unusual name for Samsung's iPhone Ultra competitor
At first, it was called the Galaxy Z Wide Fold or the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide, then—according to generally reliable sources—simply the Galaxy Z Fold8. Now a fourth name has surfaced for the compact and wider iPhone Ultra alternative, that Samsung will unveil on July 22 alongside the updated Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra. However, as authentic as these images seem to be, there are doubts.
Falcons Underrated Free Agent Signing Made Significant Impact During Minicamp
The Atlanta Falcons had a very impressive showing from one of their underrated free agent signings.
How Ron Harper Jr. Can Impact Boston Celtics Moving Forward
The New Jersey native is set to get a new deal from the C's.
Meteor streaks across skies, causes bright flash Sunday morning
Early risers across southeast Louisiana were treated to quite a sight on Sunday morning when a brilliant flash of light streaked across the pre-dawn sky. Around 5:00 a.m., Storm Station viewers reported seeing what looked like a large, vibrant green ball with fire trailing behind it followed by a bright flash. When small space rocks (meteoroids) slam into Earth's atmosphere at high speeds, they create the light streaks we call shooting stars
Miami Heat’s Sign-and-Trade Package for LeBron James Revealed
The Miami Heat may explore LeBron James’ free agency situation this offseason in any chance of bringing the veteran superstar back to the franchise.James is nearing the end of his storied career, and after exercising his player option with the Los Angeles Lakers, he is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent. Various speculations are […] The post Miami Heat’s Sign-and-Trade Package for LeBron James Revealed appeared first on HEAVY.
Reporter talks environmental, health impacts of mining efforts near Boundary Waters
WTIP spoke to Benji Jones, Senior Correspondent at Vox Media, about what environmental and health experts are saying about the proposed Twin Metals mining project in the Boundary Waters Watershed. Jones’ article “Mining these metals could be a boon for the climate — but there’s one big catch,” is currently available at vox.com. Below is...
Bullseye! Enormous 'bow and arrow' galaxy is unlike anything radio astronomers have ever seen — Space photo of the week
Astronomers and citizen scientists have discovered RAD-BAARG, a radio galaxy with a striking bow-and-arrow shape, offering a rare direct view of a galaxy falling into the environment of a galaxy cluster.
Carman: Tuesday’s election is more than just a primary. It’s a colossal opportunity to change history.
The template for tyrants goes back at least to Ancient Rome and, as Nero discovered, generally ends badly.
Why does metal stick together in space?
If you push two metal plates together on Earth, nothing happens. In space, they can fuse into one. Here's why.
Slate is betting Americans want less car for less money
Slate unveiled the starting price for its tiny, electric pickup truck this week. It's betting that today's overly techy cars created a white space.
New packaging for Apple's A20 Pro chip should keep the iPhone 18 Pro series feeling cool
With everyone worried about chips and phones heating up, processors are getting improved thermal management tools.
Space elevators could one day exist, transporting us off-Earth with the push of a button. Here's how they would work | BBC Sky at Night Magazine
What is a space elevator and how would one work? We look at the science behind building an elevator to take us into space.
NH businesses feel impact of low summer hiring rates
A new report from the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute shows summer hiring rates are lower than previous years in the Granite State, and two businesses on Hampton Beach are feeling the effects.
MacBook Retail Sales Challenged By Apple Silicon Legacy
The extended lifespan of first-generation M1 MacBooks is impacting retail sales of the newer AI-focused MacBook Air and MacBook Pro laptops.
Soccer meets nature at Vancouver mountaintop watch party
The match between England and Panama was shown on a big screen atop Grouse Mountain, a 4,100-foot mountain that's part of the Pacific Ranges with a sweeping view of British Columbia. When Jude Bellingham scored England's breakthrough goal in the second half, the fans roared. Both Toronto and Vancouver are hosting matches during the tournament.
Community Market Series creates space to support small business
A new market in Boardman is hoping to bring the community together to help support small, local businesses.
City of Palms new downtown parking program: How local business react to the change
The Fort Myers City Council recently approved a change impacting parking rates at all three of downtown Fort Myers' parking garages. As it stood, visitors would receive one hour of free parking followed by a hourly rate. Now, the change has made it so visitors are entitled to two free hours followed by a hourly rate. Local business owners and managers said it's a good idea giving visitors more time to bask under the royal palms and indulge in some shopping. But one general manager points out a problem that did not start yesterday, but years prior.
Galaxy Z Fold 8 Release Date: New Details Before Samsung Launch
Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra launches at Unpacked London on July 22. Here's what we know on specs, colors, storage options and release date ahead of Unpacked.
'Super puffy': Scientists ponder extreme low density of two planets
International researchers are engaged in a complex study of two planets in deep space that appear to have an average density lower than that of candy floss. The planets orbiting star TOI-791, located ...
US Army commander used drones, C4-packed robots to clear breach
A recent drill saw dozens of drones targeting enemy weapons, sensors, and positions before soldiers attempted to approach.
A lack of funding, a glut of stigma: How Ohio LGBTQ+ health outcomes are impacted
Being able to access healthcare in general is a struggle for LGBTQ+ individuals, and with legislation in Ohio and elsewhere that banned gender-affirming care for minors, for example, a need for healthcare can often clash with the hesitation to seek help.
Apple A20 Pro motherboard leak hints at notable memory and packaging upgrades
A leaked package layout of Apple's A20 Pro hints at several notable upgrades for the iPhone 18 Pro series. The next-gen SoC is said to feature a wider 96-bit memory interface, a redesigned packaging approach for improved thermals, and a larger Neural Processing Unit (NPU).
Colombia vs. Portugal scenarios, explained: How final Group K game will impact 2026 World Cup bracket
Colombia and Portugal clash in one of the most intriguing games in the final round of group-stage matches at the World Cup.
No debut, but loud cheers: Belfast crowd shows love for Vaibhav Sooryavanshi
Teenage sensation Vaibhav Sooryavanshi's India debut is still pending, but the focus shifted to Ireland's historic 34-run victory in the first T20I. Despite the loss, Shreyas Iyer vowed a strong comeback. Ireland's debutants impressed, with Jai Moondra and Matt Hollard making immediate impacts, while Abhishek Sharma's quickfire fifty wasn't enough for India.
"People think science is about the truth. It's not" – Why everything we know about the Universe could be mere guesswork | BBC Sky at Night Magazine
Are space science, cosmology and astronomy just guesswork? Considering the purpose of science and how we study the Universe.
We've Got Our First Look at Every Galaxy Watch 9 Band Before Unpacked
Samsung is preparing to announce its new smartwatch next month, the Galaxy Watch 9. Which we are also expecting to come with the Galaxy Watch Ultra 2
Coldwater Creek flooding impacts business at 'Bob's Canoes' in Milton
MILTON, Fla. -- River levels are dropping back to normal in Santa Rosa County after the remnants from Tropical Storm Arthur came through.
Seattle World Cup match brings fans, Pride weekend, and global politics together
The World Cup’s stop in Seattle has already delivered packed streets, record-setting business days and a surge of international energy around Lumen Field.
Fleet Science Center unveils two new exhibition spaces after renovation
The $5.6 million renovation expands exhibit space and adds new interactive visitor experiences.
DNC plans weekend of local events to focus on affordability concerns under Trump
Two years ago, Democrats were the ones accused of being indifferent to Americans’ anger about rising prices. Now they're pointing the finger at Trump, who has downplayed the impact of lingering inflation.
ACES hosts event looking at health impacts of climate change
Dr. Mark Gladwin, the dean of University of Maryland School of Medicine and the vice president of Medical Affairs, is slated to speak with Aspen Center for Environmental Studies from 6 to 7 p.m. July 2 on the worsening health impacts in the face of human-driven climate change.
First Bend Block Party draws crowds to Central District
Live music, art, food and fun are taking over Bend’s Central District for the first Bend Block Party. Come down to Second Street near Open Space and check it out before 9 p.m. today!
Moment of Science: Music and Color
Dr. Stefan Wienzierl at TU Berlin studies how the architecture of a classroom or concert hall can impact the quality of music or speech.
The impact of club sports on student experience in higher education
Authors: Ryan Savitz1, Divit Gupta2, Jared Ward3, Andrew Bjorkelo1 1Neumann University 2Conestoga High School 3Brigham Young University Corresponding Author: Ryan Savitz savitzr@neumann.edu …
The 5-Question Org Chart Audit I Run Before Scaling AI Across a Business
AI success depends less on the technology and more on the organization behind it. These five questions help leaders identify the structural barriers that prevent AI from delivering real business impact.
Health system CEO fired without cause in wake of class-action lawsuit over unnecessary surgeries
Reese Jackson, the former president and CEO of Chesapeake Regional Healthcare was unceremoniously dismissed from his role on June 1. Jackson has been named as a defendant in a pending class-action lawsuit filed by 900 women.
CDFW News | Monterey Bay Northern Anchovy and Pacific Sardine Commercial Take Restrictions and Recreational Advisory in Place Due to Public Health Hazard
State health agencies determined that northern anchovy and Pacific sardine recently sampled from Monterey Bay contained elevated levels of domoic acid and recommended a commercial fishery restriction and recreational health advisory in the bay for the take of anchovy and sardine for human consumption in the area.
Uncle Julio's Fort Worth Celebrates Grand Re-Opening Weekend with Renovated Restaurant, Expanded Patio, Live Entertainment and Exclusive Offers
Uncle Julio's is welcoming guests back to its newly refreshed Fort Worth location with a three-day Grand Re-Opening celebration packed with exclusive offers,...
Coalition of Asian Pacifics in Entertainment Announces New Cohort
The Coalition of Asian Pacifics in Entertainment (CAPE) has announced their Emerging Executives Committee for 2026.
'The Bear' ending explained – Jeremy Allen White, cast unpack finale
Warning: This story contains spoilers from the Season 5 finale of “The Bear,” now streaming on Hulu. Clear the plates and pack the linens – “The Bear” has served its
THE NEXT GENERATION TAKES THE TRACK: COPACI AND PANAM SPORTS LAUNCH ELITE CYCLING DEVELOPMENT CAMP IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
Young cyclists from across the Caribbean are gathering in Trinidad and Tobago […]
Pacquiao and Mayweather rematch postponed indefinitely
The rematch between boxing greats Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather has been postponed indefinitely because of a host of reasons, with contract disputes the main factor.
Science Can Fully Explain Consciousness? By 326 Theories…
It’s supposed to be a given that machines or brain organoids might be conscious despite not knowing what that is or how it works — but preborn children can’t be…
Nintendo’s Summer Sale Is Now Live and Not Only Includes Discounts on Digital Titles, but Also the Switch 2 Upgrade Pack for Breath of the Wild
Nintendo has launched a new Summer Sale until July 8. Save on select digital titles across Nintendo Switch and Switch 2, alongside a Switch 2 upgrade pack for Zelda: Breath of the Wild.
Triller ghosts workers and stakes its future on SpaceX
A group of employees at Triller, a media upstart, said they haven't been paid in a year or heard from their bosses in months.
New feed trailer expands feed delivery opportunities
Delivery of bulk feed produced at the Iowa State University Kent Feed Mill and Grain Science Complex to Iowa State’s animal science farms is now possible, thanks to a new high-tech feed trailer.
NASA’s PACE Mission Studies Smoke, Fires
With the North American fire season underway, and a record number of acres already burned nationwide, NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, and ocean Ecosystem
Council Explores AI, Quality Improvement and Patient Safety to Advance Community Health
The MHA Council on Health Access and Community Impact held its final meeting of the program year June 4 to examine emerging opportunities and challenges shaping healthcare delivery and advancing community health.
810 Entertainment to bring bowling, games and more to Austin EastVillage
A new entertainment hub is headed to Northwest Austin in early 2027.
Why where you live matters for heart health — even in childhood - Baylor College of Medicine Blog Network
Evidence links environmental exposures to early cardiovascular risk, disproportionately impacting marginalized communities like AI/AN youth.
MSI Claw 8 EX AI+ pre orders extend to the UK, including Launch Pack bundle, here’s where you can buy one
You can now pre-order the latest MSI Claw handheld and/or its Launch Pack in the United Kingdom. More retailers will stock it soon.
Starlink veterans launch startup to broaden megaconstellation ownership
Former SpaceX engineers who helped build and scale Starlink have launched a startup aiming to deliver megaconstellations for governments and companies seeking more control over space-based infrastructure.
UNESCO places science and knowledge at the heart of recovery efforts
At the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) 2026, held in Gdańsk, Poland, on 25–26 June, UNESCO announced a new package of support of over EUR 2,5 million to help rebuild Ukraine’s scientific and
Should “Success” in Science Be Measured Differently?
Publication volumes are one of the main ways that success is measured for researchers today. From mentorship to real-world impact, scientists argue that “publish or perish” pressures overlook many of the contributions that drive discovery forward.
ISS repair spacewalk highlights concerns about station health
NASA astronauts on the space station are preparing for a spacewalk to repair a robotic arm as safety advisers raise concerns about its long-term health.
Cascades doubles down on business case for sustainability
The fiber specialist laid its path forward in a 2026-2030 sustainability plan. It’s emphasizing supplier vetting and its capacity to assist customers with their sustainability goals as it continues to strive for widely recyclable packaging.
Elroy Air to Become Publicly Traded Company via Business Combination with Inflection Point-led SPAC
Elroy Air, Inc., a leading U.S.-based technology developer of autonomous heavy-cargo drones for defense, rapid response and commercial logistics, and Columbu...
Federal AI security center measure advanced by House Science
A measure that would put into law a key federal office focused on artificial intelligence advanced Thursday out of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, as part of a slate of AI-focused and data center bills. The committee advanced the bills on a bipartisan basis, but put off potential changes regarding funding levels for […]
SpaceX employees get rich off IPO while Blue Origin workers miss out
Three ex-employees of Jeff Bezos' rocket maker said Blue Origin's approach to equity left them with stock options that are essentially worthless.
Trump Mobile will take your $499 right now
The T1 Phone no longer requires a $100 deposit.
'A heavy impact:' Schwebel's closure leaves a sense of community loss
It’s the small things that residents across the region will remember when Schwebel’s closes its doors at summer’s end. Everything from...
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Mental health as both outcome and determinant in climate adaptation
Nature Climate Change - Mental health should not be viewed solely as a passive outcome of climate adaptation. Rather, it serves as a key determinant of cognitive capacity and shapes the...
The Business of Beauty Global Forum: Inside the Industry
Jane Hertzmark Hudis, Simone Dominici and Vicky Tsai were among the speakers unpacking the most pressing topics for the industry in the second session of The Business of Beauty Global Forum 2026.
Travelers Championship brings business boost and traffic headaches for Cromwell-area shops
As golfers compete at the Travelers Championship, nearby restaurants and shops in the Cromwell area are seeing the tournament’s impact on business, with some owners welcoming the crowds and others pointing to traffic challenges.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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