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John Oliver scores his dream job: A soap opera gig on 'General Hospital'
The host of HBO's "Last Week Tonight" will realize one of his big wishes in July with a guest spot on the ABC soap opera "General Hospital."
Tucson summer heat brings business slowdown to Catalina Foothills shops
A Catalina Foothills Vietnamese restaurant owner says summer heat and fewer snowbirds are slowing sales near Sabino Canyon.
Federal health agency cancels most of its teen pregnancy prevention grants, including some in Pa.
A spokesperson for U.S. Health and Human Services confirmed to Stateline on Friday that the agency is canceling 53 out of 67 grants, worth about $68 million, under the Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program, affecting grantees in more than two dozen states. A list obtained by Stateline of canceled grants includes those awarded to universities, community […]
Running through challenges: Elite runner returns to Missoula Half Marathon after health complications
Abby Rodseth finished as the 11th woman in the Missoula Half Marathon, completing an emotional return to competitive running.
Core special teams player C.J. Goodwin announces retirement
Core special teams player C.J.
Paso Robles unveils entertainment lineup for July 4th celebration at Barney Schwartz Park
The evening's entertainment will begin at 5:30 p.m. with a performance by Garden Party, a local group playing music from the 1960s and 1970s.
Israeli strikes and shelling in Gaza kill at least 4 Palestinians, health workers say
Local health officials say the latest Israeli strikes across the Gaza Strip have killed at least four Palestinians, including a 13-year-old girl
Summer Blockbuster Entertainment
“It’s summertime and the living is easy,” those words sung by Ella Fitzgerald in the 1960s might not ring as true in 2026, but summertime should still be the time […]
On anniversary of disastrous debate, Biden rallies Democrats at a casino
President Joe Biden spent the second anniversary of his disastrous debate performance at a Maryland casino, giving the keynote speech at an annual fundraiser for Maryland Democrats.
AWS CEO says replacing young employees with AI is ‘one of the dumbest ideas’—and bad for business: ‘At some point the whole thing explodes on itself’
Amazon laid off 14,000 employees this fall, but CEO Andy Jassy denied the reductions were related to AI.
Government overreach won’t fix youth gender medicine
The real cure for bad science is better clinical trials, not lawsuits.
These church members disagree on politics. Together they're wiping out medical debt
Trinity Moravian Church, a politically diverse congregation in Winston-Salem, N. C., has been raising money to retire medical debt in the surrounding community.
Government overreach won’t fix youth gender medicine
The real cure for bad science is better clinical trials, not lawsuits.
These church members disagree on politics. Together they're wiping out medical debt
Trinity Moravian Church, a politically diverse congregation in Winston-Salem, N. C., has been raising money to retire medical debt in the surrounding community.
Dispatch reporter Emma Wozniak covers real estate development, business
From lawsuits to high-rises to market trends, here's how Emma Wozniak covers real estate and business news in Columbus.
Trump’s vision for White House park: 47 trees to mark his 47th presidency
The president has called Lafayette Square the entrance to the White House. Contractors have been renovating the park for months and are likely to miss Trump’s original goal of reopening before July 4.
Swipeless online dating? How AI is reshaping the search for love
Traditional dating apps including Tinder, Grindr and Bumble and California startups are experimenting with how AI could reshape how people find love online.
Astronomers find biggest super-puff planets yet, lighter than cotton candy
Comparable to shaving foam, astronomers find the wispiest planets yet. They're in the southern "flying fish" constellation.
With time running out, Trump digs in on changing midterm election rules
Fearing a Democratic takeover of Congress, the president has spent months trying to alter how the midterms will be conducted, but obstacles keep cropping up.
Costs of Iran war will linger despite conflict's end, experts say
The effects of the war and other factors driving inflation are likely to stick around for months, experts say, presenting an ongoing challenge to American households.
Carman: Tuesday’s election is more than just a primary. It’s a colossal opportunity to change history.
The template for tyrants goes back at least to Ancient Rome and, as Nero discovered, generally ends badly.
Patients can save thousands with drug coupons, but only if insurers honor them
Patients who rely on co-pay assistance from drugmakers are typically heavy users of health care for whom delays in treatment or worsening conditions can lead to higher costs, according to patient advocates.
Pols & Politics: Why not make looser drinking laws for World Cup permanent, observers ask
Massachusetts relaxed its rules on public drinking to accommodate World Cup fans. One libertarian magazine is wondering why it isn’t permanent. Plus: Lawsuit to compel audit being considered.
US Oilfield Business Activity Strengthens, Though Oil Price Uncertainty Remains
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ second-quarter energy survey reports improved business conditions, despite a mixed outlook on oil prices and input costs.
Jessamine County business swept away in flood waters
Owner Timmy Estes says he woke up to a call this morning that the business his grandfather started in the 70s was no more.
Black Hills Renaissance Fair draws crowds for weekend of medieval entertainment
The kickoff of the Renaissance Festival started on Saturday
‘Noxious odors’ lawsuit involving organic residuals lagoon dropped by Fort Smith business owners
VAN BUREN -- A civil lawsuit focused on a widespread foul odor linked to an Arkansas River bottom organic residuals storage lagoon has been dismissed at the request of the plaintiffs.
Back in business: Blue and White Snack Bar owners vow to uphold tradition of Hollidaysburg mainstay
HOLLIDAYSBURG — A local Hollidaysburg landmark is back as Blue and White Snack Bar, 905 Union St., reopened for business May 12. “The Blue and White is a landmark in Hollidaysburg and really all of Blair County. To say that people are excited to see it open again is an understatement,” Mayor Chad Repko said. […]
Millions drop Affordable Care Act coverage after subsidies expired
New federal figures show that about 3 million fewer people had Affordable Care Act health insurance plans in February compared with the same time last year.
Oklahoma City business taking donations to help Venezuela following multiple earthquakes
Venezuelan restaurant VeneBurgers is organizing donations to provide Venezuelans with necessary items.
Smaller shoulder pads are coming under closer scrutiny
As football players have gotten larger, their shoulder pads have gotten smaller.
5 million have dropped ACA insurance after Trump and the GOP let prices skyrocket
The number of people who signed up for a health plan and then didn't pay their premium fell much more sharply than it has in years past. Trump officials blame fraud. Health policy experts blame costs.
Recent rulings show that SCOTUS has ditched reason for politics
'The flurry of 6-3 decisions shows how SCOTUS has become a political body, not the judicial one the founders of our Constitution sorely aspired to,' writes an L.A. Times reader.
Which coach helped Dianna Russini get out of a ticket?
The recent New York Times article regarding former New York Times reporter Dianna Russini answered some lingering questions.
Some paid the ultimate price to enact voting rights. Their survivors see America turning backward
It’s been six decades since the Voting Rights Act was enacted
Lawsuits filed against Pharr immigration-related business after filing unauthorized asylum claims
Two families have filed lawsuits against Pharr-based Ferrer Public Services, claiming the business filed unauthorized asylum applications that put their immigration status at risk.
Cameron Carr discusses joining the Lakers
NBA mock drafts projected Cameron Carr getting selected between 15 and 20 in the first round. Ending up with the Lakers was more than he could have asked for.
Letters to Sports: Is Austin Reaves worth the $185-million deal?
L.A. Times readers weigh in on the re-signing of Lakers guard Austin Reaves, as well as the Dodgers' hits and misses.
Trump admin rule puts reproductive health care for 160K Pa. patients at risk, lawsuit says
A lawsuit says family planning and health organizations in Pennsylvania could face federal funding delays or denials due to a new Trump administration policy.
If a Lyme disease vaccine gets approved, how would it go over? We asked hunters
Drugmakers are working on a potential new shot to prevent the tick-borne illness. How might it fare in the era of vaccine skepticism?
Raptor discovery in Argentina points to prehistoric links with China
Unearthed on opposite sides of the world, fossils of Kank australis and velociraptors sport matching claws, revealing evolutionary ties.
Pro-Israel influencers criticize Vance, but evangelicals remain open to him
Despite attacks from some conservatives, a heavily pro-Israel crowd still has warm words for Vance, with many saying they could pick him as the party’s nominee.
Trump admin rule puts reproductive health care for 160K Pa. patients at risk, lawsuit says
Spotlight PA is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit newsroom producing investigative and public-service journalism that holds power to account and...
Andy Burnham distanced himself from UK Prime Minister Starmer, but may be stuck with his policies
Andy Burnham has set himself apart from the man he expects to replace as British prime minister
Man with same name as US Sen. Dan Sullivan is eligible for Alaska's primary ballot, judge rules
An Alaska judge has ruled that a man with the same name and party affiliation as Alaska Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan is eligible to challenge the senator in the August primary
Trump-backed Letlow faces Fleming in Louisiana GOP Senate runoff
President Donald Trump’s choice for U.S. Senate in Louisiana is seeking to secure the GOP nomination and deliver another win for the president in his effort to replace Republicans who crossed him
ICE mask ban takes effect in N.Y. amid dueling lawsuits and a race for governor
The Trump administration’s lawsuit argues that states do not have the authority to regulate the federal government’s operations.
Business Honor Roll picnic celebrates community support
The Business Relations Committee at MyMichigan Medical Center Alpena recently welcomed local professionals and industry leaders to a Business Honor Roll Appreciation Picnic hosted by Alpena Agency in their downtown location. Established in 1994, the Business Honor Roll brings together local companies and corporations interested in strengthening health care for our region. Through annual contributions […]
Peters, Bergman lead Michigan delegation in calling on Small Business Administration to approve disaster declaration
WASHINGTON, DC — U.S. Senator Gary Peters (D-MI), Ranking Member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, led members of the Michigan Congressional Delegation in urging the Small Business Administration (SBA) to support Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s request for an administrative disaster declaration following the severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, large hail and torrential […]
Testing gives science-based data for Fairmont lakes
FAIRMONT— A partnership between the city of Fairmont and Minnesota State University-Mankato will result in comprehensive scientific data on the Fairmont Chain of Lakes. The $25,000 contract started on April 1 and will go through Dec. 31 of this year. Fairmont’s Water Resources Coordinator, Hannah Neusch, acknowledged that while the water treatment plant in Fairmont […]
‘Pineapple Days’ sidewalk sale draws business to Lincoln stores amid downtown construction
Cinnamon Dokken, owner of A Novel Idea Bookstore, said it was named for the Lemon Days sidewalk sales that many businesses around Lincoln used to do, instead using pineapples.
ACES hosts event looking at health impacts of climate change
Dr. Mark Gladwin, the dean of University of Maryland School of Medicine and the vice president of Medical Affairs, is slated to speak with Aspen Center for Environmental Studies from 6 to 7 p.m. July 2 on the worsening health impacts in the face of human-driven climate change.
Burglars steal from Grand Forks business, cancer fundraiser
The owner of An Elegant Affair says burglars stole merchandise, cash and donations collected for an employee battling cancer.
First Bend Block Party draws crowds to Central District
Live music, art, food and fun are taking over Bend’s Central District for the first Bend Block Party. Come down to Second Street near Open Space and check it out before 9 p.m. today!
We almost had a smartphone in the 90s. Why did it fail?
In the early 90’s, a company called General Magic began working on a portable device that would allow people to check email, make phone calls, even play games. It was basically a smartphone. But it never caught on.On today’s show, a theory about why this device failed. General Magic had generous investors, world-class talent and creative freedom. But is it possible what they needed was constraints?Support:Planet Money+Read: Our book: Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life Our weekly longform Planet Money newsletterOur weekly Indicator round-up newsletterFollow: InstagramTikTokYouTubeFacebookThis episode was hosted by Erika Beras and Emma Peaslee. It was produced by Emma Peaslee with help from Sam Yellowhorse Kesler and James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune and fact-checked by Charlotte Isidore. It was engineered by Jimmy Keeley with help from Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money’s executive producer.
Health system CEO fired without cause in wake of class-action lawsuit over unnecessary surgeries
Reese Jackson, the former president and CEO of Chesapeake Regional Healthcare was unceremoniously dismissed from his role on June 1. Jackson has been named as a defendant in a pending class-action lawsuit filed by 900 women.
House Science Republicans Examine Grant Fraud
Committee Democrats argued the hearing was a distraction and an excuse to slash spending.
Trump tries out midterms message that focuses on ‘communists’
Trump warned an audience of religious conservatives that communism is spreading in the U.S., a new theme for his midterm campaign.
Lorain flower shop celebrating 75 years as part of International Festival and Bazaar
Lorain has seen businesses come and go, but at least one has stood the test of time. Zelek Flower Shop celebrates 75 years this summer.
Rock Creek Entertainment District under siege in new lawsuit
A citizens group has sued to block Norman's $1.1 billion Rock Creek Entertainment District, alleging constitutional and Open Meetings Act violations.
Kylie Jenner's former chef alleges 'intense' workload led to miscarriage
Kylie Jenner has been hit with a third workplace lawsuit as her former chef claims the job's "intense" demands led to a pregnancy loss.
Making sense of what Lars Tiffany’s lawsuit says about UVA sports
Analyzing a few points made by Tiffany’s camp and what they indicate about the UVA athletic department’s approach.
Business owner in South Carolina arrested, officials say
A business owner in South Carolina was arrested Friday and is accused of operating without a retail license, according to the South Carolina Department of Revenue.
Strictly Business Cannes Lions: Deloitte, AWS, Sony Execs on AI and Tech Adoption
Variety Strictly Business Podcast Live presented by AWS & Deloitte featured Deloitte's Michelle McGuire, AWS's Ruba Borno, and Sony Pictures Entertainment's Pete Wood.
Strictly Business Cannes Lions: Deloitte, AWS, Sony Execs on AI and Tech Adoption
Variety Strictly Business Podcast Live presented by AWS & Deloitte featured Deloitte's Michelle McGuire, AWS's Ruba Borno, and Sony Pictures Entertainment's Pete Wood.
Trump election bill fight brings House business to a halt
A Republican revolt over President Donald Trump's election overhaul bill has thrown the House into disarray.
Bayer wins in US court, but at what cost to public health?
A landmark US Supreme Court ruling protects Bayer from thousands of lawsuits linked to its Roundup weedkiller. Plaintiffs alleged the German agrochemical giant failed to warn users about potential cancer risks.
In governor's race, voters face stark choice on immigrant healthcare
California’s next governor will face tough decisions on a highly controversial piece of healthcare policy: what to do about health coverage for the more than 1.4 million low-income residents without legal status.
This Democratic congresswoman almost helped elect a Republican speaker
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) explains why she contemplated supporting Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) in 2023 with an extremely rare crossover vote.
'A heavy impact:' Schwebel's closure leaves a sense of community loss
It’s the small things that residents across the region will remember when Schwebel’s closes its doors at summer’s end. Everything from...
Hollywood gets into the microdrama race as mobile-first storytelling draws stars and major studios
Mobile-first serialized storytelling is rapidly becoming one of entertainment's fastest-growing businesses.
Hollywood gets into the microdrama race as mobile-first storytelling draws stars and major studios
While much of Hollywood was consumed by the streaming wars, Issa Rae was studying a different mode of entertainment thousands of miles away: microdramas. No stranger to creating a successful online s...
As Colorado votes, rural voter politics could influence key races
Rural doesn’t necessarily mean conservative, and the opinions of these 10 voters run the gamut.
Vance dismisses Watergate scandal, says ‘deep state’ went after Nixon
The vice president said he admired Nixon and drew parallels between the past president, who resigned amid pressure in 1974, and Trump today.
Controversial billionaire tax will appear on November ballot
Proponents of a controversial billionaire tax pledge to making sure it appears on the November ballot to backfill federal healthcare funds.
Vance, an admirer of Richard Nixon, says Watergate would be 'a 12-hour news story' today
Vice President JD Vance says the Watergate scandal that brought down President Richard Nixon would have been a blip in today’s news cycle
Ex-NFL player Doug Martin's family sue Oakland police, allege restraint asphyxia in fatal mental health crisis
Parents of former NFL running back Doug Martin file wrongful death lawsuit alleging he died from restraint asphyxia caused by Oakland police.
Winter Sports Club to raise Olympian banners July 3 at Olympian Hall
The Steamboat Springs Winter Sports Club will raise banners to the rafters of Olympian Hall at Howelsen Hill to honor the area’s most recent Olympians. The event will take place from 4-5:30 p.m. on July...
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
After wins by democratic socialists, centrist Democrats unite to push back
Thirteen Democratic House members and candidates announced their support for an initiative that commits them to centrist principles.
Trump budget request omits funds for L.A. fire relief, prompting criticism from senators
The omission is the latest strain in a yearlong standoff between California leaders and the Trump administration over federal disaster aid.
Climate Attribution Conference Explores Science, Law and Accountability
Speakers explored how climate attribution research is shaping lawsuits, policy and public health.
Falls Church Business News & Notes 6-25-2026 - Falls Church News-Press Online
Falls Church Business News & Notes Falls Church Business News & Notes Local Business Updates A full interactive roundup of chamber recognitions, business expansions, events, regional awards, and one correction. Expand All 8 total notes Includes full correction Links preserved Chamber Businesses Named Top Workplaces New Editions Consulting ranked #2 among small businesses. ⌄ New
RFK Jr. urged Iowa candidate to make deal to help GOP win House seat, per audio recording
The health secretary urged Iowa Libertarian candidates to drop out of key races to help Republicans keep control of Congress, according to interviews and a recording obtained by The Post. The effort highlights mounting GOP anxiety over the battle for the House.
Arts and Entertainment Agenda, June 25 to July 1
Aspen Ideas Festival, June 25-July 1 The Aspen Ideas Festival will run from July 25 through July 1 at the 40-acre Aspen Institute, 1000 N. Third St. The event hosts brilliant minds from around the...
Entertainment this week: Paul Thorn, Hike for Hope and more
Friday, June 26 Annual Ian Casey Classic – Tahoe Donner Golf Course. Our most popular event of the year, a full field of 130+ golfers will team up in foursomes and hit the links to...
Another look at carrots and eyesight; how to get more fiber; why mosquitoes bite some people and not others; plus other stories with Vanderbilt Health sources
AARP reporter Stacey Colino interviewed Milam Brantley, MD, Associate Professor of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, in 2020 for a story about whether eating carrots can improve vision. Sacramento Bee reporter Samantha Agate has now used Brantley’s comments in an AI-curated story created by content specialists on the same topic that has been picked up by MSN and others. Prevention magazine interviewed Heidi Silver, RD, PhD, Founding Director of the Vanderbilt Diet, Body Composition, and Human Metabolism Core, for a story about the importance of fiber and how people can get more of it in their diet. William Schaffner, MD, Professor of Preventive Medicine, was quoted by several news outlets about public health issues, including: Women’s Health (tick bites and alpha-gal syndrome); The Washington Post (tetanus); and Healthline (why mosquitoes prefer to bite some people and leave others alone). A visit to Monroe Carell Jr. Children’s Hospital at Vanderbilt by some Banana Ball baseball players was covered by The Tennessean and WZTV Fox 17 News, and The Tennessean’s story was also picked up by Yahoo! Sports. Clarksville Now published a story written by the Montgomery County Economic Development Team, whointerviewed Bradley Stancombe, MD, professor of Clinical Pediatrics, Vanderbilt Neonatology, about the new energy of Vanderbilt Clarksville Hospital and how the facility is recruiting physicians. Healio Allergy/Asthma group editorial director Richard Gawel interviewed Mark Rolfsen, MD, Clinical Fellow in the Division of Allergy, Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, for a story about his presentation at the American Thoracic Society meeting on metal health outcomes following ICU discharge. Nashville Scene reporter Hannah Herner interviewed James Crowe, MD, Director of the Vanderbilt Center for Antibody Therapeutics, for a story about his efforts to prepare for the next pandemic by isolating antibodies that can neutralize dangerous viruses. Medscape reporter Kathleen Doheny interviewed Neesha Choma, Associate Chief of Staff of Vanderbilt University Hospital, for a story about how hospitals can reduce readmissions.
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