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Beyond Politics: A China-Born Journalist’s American Story
Plus, a professor’s lesson: The First Amendment favors verifying facts over accepting government claims. |WSJ China for June 30
Decrying 'egos in politics,' Wu sharpens attacks on Beacon Hill foes
Mayor Michelle Wu's deteriorating relationships in the Senate have led her to drop the veil and endorse first-time candidates running against those whom she views as thwarting her priorities.
Stop playing politics with children's lives
Every day at my family medicine practice, I see how important secure relationships are for healthy development.
Think Insurance Denials Only Hurt Patients? Why Business Owners Are Paying the Ultimate Price
A simple 9-week delay for a critical medication resulted in a $50,000 surgical nightmare. Here is how healthcare bureaucratic delays quietly destroy your company's bottom line.
New BioShocking Attack Tricks AI Browsers Into Leaking User Credentials
LayerX says BioShocking used indirect prompt injection to trick six AI browsers into copying credentials from signed-in accounts.
'Staying away from the middle will be hardest': Sachin Tendulkar's emotional message to Ben Stokes after retirement
Sachin Tendulkar led heartfelt tributes to Ben Stokes following his retirement from international cricket. Tendulkar lauded Stokes' fearless approach, match-winning ability, and inspirational leadership, calling him one of England's finest all-rounders and captains. Stokes, who bowed out after a Test series loss, expressed contentment with his decision, citing years of physical and mental demands as the primary reason for stepping away.
Oil markets move from fearing shortages to worrying about surpluses
Global oil supply recovery eases shortage fears as Brent crude falls to $73. Wall Street is lowering forecasts amid demand concerns.
Stephen Amell is now 'best friends' with soccer star Neymar after replying to years-old DM on live TV
Stephen Amell tells EW about the nail-biting moment James Corden took control of his phone on a live Fox Sports broadcast to respond to a years-old DM from Brazilian soccer star Neymar, with whom he's now 'best friends.'
'Yellowstone' creator Taylor Sheridan slams Marvel movies and studio execs: 'It didn't used to be this way'
'Yellowstone' creator Taylor Sheridan had harsh criticism for Marvel movies, saying the superhero films use 'information dumps that you have to follow to get to the action rather than actually moving plot.'
Blackhawks Extend Qualifying Offers To Bedard & Three Other RFAs
Ahead of Monday’s 4:00 p.m. (CT) deadline, the Chicago Blackhawks issued qualifying offers to four of their six pending restricted […] The post Blackhawks Extend Qualifying Offers To Bedard & Three Other RFAs appeared first on Chicago Hockey Now.
Scientists may have finally found how Alzheimer's spreads through the brain
A common brain protein may be giving Alzheimer’s disease an unexpected way to spread, carrying toxic Tau proteins from damaged neurons into healthy ones. By blocking these harmful protein packages before they reach new cells, researchers believe it may one day be possible to slow the disease's relentless progression.
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
WATCH: Bill Maher says Vance interview critics wouldn’t be happy unless he ‘punched him in the nose’
Bill Maher dismisses backlash over his JD Vance interview on "Real Time with Bill Maher," saying critics wouldn't be happy unless he punched Vance.
Watch out, Amazon: the Kobo eReader now has a Goodreads rival
Kobo users can now automatically sync their reading progress to StoryGraph, making it easier to track books, reading stats, and challenges without relying on Amazon’s Goodreads.
Wings' Azzi Fudd achieves 29-year WNBA history
Fudd was the No. 1 overall pick and is trying to prove it was worthy.
What really happened to Lizzo’s career?
The pop star is back with a new album, a new look and a lot of baggage. People aren’t buying it.
Pediatric sports medicine expert shares the health benefits of playing soccer
Apple Plans Wider Color Gamut for Future MacBook Pro, iMac, and iPad Pro
Apple plans to adopt OLED panels capable of displaying a much wider range of colors, according to a new report from research firm TrendForce. The new panels would cover 95% of the BT.2020 color standard, which describes a far broader spectrum of colors than the DCI-P3 standard Apple's screens currently target. In practice, that means deeper, more accurate reds, greens, and blues.
Texas Democrats leave convention united in effort to end GOP’s 30-year hold on state politics
Texas Democrats spent their 3-day convention in Corpus Christi rallying party activists, training volunteers and making the case for Democratic policies and candidates across the state ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Sharks Sign Kesselring, How To Unlock His Potential?
The San Jose Sharks have signed Michael Kesselring. The Sharks signed the 26-year-old defenseman to a three-year, $13.5 million contract ($4.5 million AAV), buying up two of his UFA seasons. There were no trade protections. Kesselring was a pending RFA. The #SJSharks signed recently acquired 26 y/o RFA RD Michael Kesselring to 3 year $4.5M […] The post Sharks Sign Kesselring, How To Unlock His Potential? appeared first on San Jose Hockey Now.
These Michigan businesses are finding a silver lining with tariffs
Resale and salvage retailers are taking advantage of a circular, domestic supply chain as shoppers shift to bargain-hunting and buying local.
Queerying neuroscience: How legislation and institutions reframe LGBTQIA+ researchers’ careers
In honor of Pride Month, The Transmitter spoke with three researchers who surveyed hundreds of LGBTQIA+ neuroscientists to better understand how institutional support, harassment and policy intersect to shape their professional trajectories.
Got the tennis bug? How to play sport without paying
As the world's best players begin play at Wimbledon, how can you get into sport on a budget.
Reece James: England defender confident of playing again at World Cup
Plus: England face prospect of 24 hours worth of flights if they make it all the way to World Cup final; South Korea manager Myung-Bo Hong reportedly quits after disappointing tournament; Robert Lewandowski to join Chicago Fire after leaving Barcelona
Paso Robles unveils entertainment lineup for July 4th celebration at Barney Schwartz Park
The evening's entertainment will begin at 5:30 p.m. with a performance by Garden Party, a local group playing music from the 1960s and 1970s.
Business Owner Questions Buffalo Council on Business Park
At their last regular meeting in June, the Buffalo City Council was asked by business owner Dustin Smith about the status of lots at the Buffalo Business Park, saying he may be interested in purchasing one. He explained further. Smith said he wanted to know what the city was planning for the business park because […]
Jessica Alba and Danny Ramirez enjoying the beautiful game
Jessica Alba and Danny Ramirez enjoying the beautiful game
Harry Styles chokes on water, collapses on stage at London concert amid U.K. heat wave
Harry Styles caused some serious fan concern after lying down on stage at the end of his Friday night Wembley Stadium set.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Texas Democrats leave convention united in effort to end GOP's 30-year hold on Texas
Texas Democrats spent their 3-day convention in Corpus Christi rallying party activists, training volunteers and making the case for Democratic policies and candidates across the state ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Cowboys 2026 roster rundown: TE Brevyn Spann-Ford
Cowboys tight end will make his push for more playing time
Commentary: Putting students before politics
After another school year, superintendents across Texas are not just packing up classrooms; we are staring down spreadsheets, trying to piece together next year’s budgets. It is a grueling annual...
EXCLUSIVE: Three Candidates Vying For Global Fund Leadership In Contentious Race
As the Global Fund heads into a secretive but highly contentious election of its new Executive Director, the names of three likely US candidates have surfaced - former Global Fund Executive Director Mark Dybul, former Trump appointee William Steiger and a former NYC public health official, Ashwin Vasan.
Theater Quiz for June 2026: Pride, Politics and Prizes
How well were you paying attention to the theater over the past month? Answer these ten questions, and a whopper of a bonus question about Tony acceptance speeches, to find out.
3 Traps Health Systems Fall Into When Trying to Improve Their Culture
Cultivating a positive culture is a priority for hospital leaders, but many are making avoidable mistakes. Myra Gregorian, Seattle Children's chief people and transformation officer, outlined some of these common blunders — such as not involving frontline staff in decision making and assuming that simple communication methods are sufficient.
Career coach recommends 4-hour burnout-proof job application routine
A career coach advises job seekers against spending all day applying to jobs. She says a four-hour routine is burnout-proof and more effective.
Reporter talks environmental, health impacts of mining efforts near Boundary Waters
WTIP spoke to Benji Jones, Senior Correspondent at Vox Media, about what environmental and health experts are saying about the proposed Twin Metals mining project in the Boundary Waters Watershed. Jones’ article “Mining these metals could be a boon for the climate — but there’s one big catch,” is currently available at vox.com. Below is...
After trying a Google TV projector, I may never buy another TV ever again
After spending a few weeks with a Google TV projector, I think I may be done buying actual TVs for good. Here's what changed.
Astronomers find biggest super-puff planets yet, lighter than cotton candy
Comparable to shaving foam, astronomers find the wispiest planets yet. They're in the southern "flying fish" constellation.
With time running out, Trump digs in on changing midterm election rules
Fearing a Democratic takeover of Congress, the president has spent months trying to alter how the midterms will be conducted, but obstacles keep cropping up.
Science says these 7 parenting beliefs may be quietly making life harder for parents and children
Every parent wants to give their child the best possible upbringing. But in trying to be the “perfect parent,” many may be putting unnecessary pressure on themselves. A 2023 survey of more than 700 parents by researchers at Ohio State University found that 57% reported experiencing parental burnout. Surprisingly, the biggest predictor wasn't the number of children they had or how many hours they worked- it was the pressure to live up to an impossible standard of parenting. Child development experts say many of the beliefs parents consider signs of “good parenting” may actually be making life harder for both parents and children. Here's what science says.Here are seven common parenting beliefs that science says may be working against both parents and children.
Airlines Are Installing New Luxury Seats, but No One Is Allowed to Sit in Them
Lie-flat seats in private pods face long waits for safety certifications, delaying debuts for carriers’ high-end offerings.
Kevin O'Leary's latest villain arc: data centers
Kevin O'Leary, the acerbic "Shark Tank" investor, is everywhere trying to sell a skeptical American public on the idea of a data center in their town.
Game 84: Rockies at Twins
First Pitch: 6:10 pm CDTTV: Twins.TVRadio: TIBN / WCCO 830 / The Wolf 102.9 FM / Audacy One night after what many are already calling the dumbest game of all time, Target Field is playing host to the Battle of the Mikes. Mike check, one-two, one-two. Heh. Hilarious. For the Twins, it’s Mike Paredes, who has […]
States seek to lower drug prices by targeting the companies that manage them for health plans
TOPEKA, Kan. — As consumers worry about medication costs, states are trying to lower drug prices by reining in big companies that oversee prescription coverage for health insurers. Some of those companies, called pharmacy benefit managers, also own pharmacies, and one of them, CVS, has spent millions of dollars fighting
Ann Blyth, Oscar nominee for 'Mildred Pierce,' dies at 98
LOS ANGELES — Ann Blyth, who was nominated for an Academy Award for playing the wicked, manipulative daughter in the 1945 noir melodrama "Mildred Pierce," has died at age 98.
Burcum: Sanford Health got what it wanted. Now comes the moment of truth.
From columnist Jill Burcum: The South Dakota health system has spent a decade trying to crack the Twin Cities health care market. With the North Memorial deal, it now has a chance to prove itself.
Austrian GP: George Russell takes controversial pole as Max Verstappen crashes in dramatic qualifying
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
Now researchers better understand why even a mildly annoying itch could put you on an itch-and-scratch cycle if you give in.
Austrian GP: George Russell tops Practice Three from Kimi Antonelli and Lewis Hamilton to set up thrilling qualifying
The Most Expensive AC Setting to Use During a Heat Wave, Experts Say
Trying to stay cool during a heat wave? Experts reveal the AC setting that can drive up energy costs the most—and what to use instead to save money.
Pro-Israel influencers criticize Vance, but evangelicals remain open to him
Despite attacks from some conservatives, a heavily pro-Israel crowd still has warm words for Vance, with many saying they could pick him as the party’s nominee.
Meet Troy Rohrbaugh and Doug Petno, who are vying for Jamie Dimon's job
Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh are the frontrunners to succeed Jamie Dimon. Here's a guide to the men in line for one of Wall Street's top jobs.
States seek to lower drug prices by targeting the companies that manage them for health plans
Legislators across the U.S. are trying to lower prescription costs by reining in big companies that handle drug coverage for health insurers.
States seek to lower drug prices by targeting the companies that manage them for health plans
Legislators across the U.S. are trying to lower prescription costs by reining in big companies that handle drug coverage for health insurers.
Businesses say NJ gridlock alerts near MetLife on World Cup match days is hurting them
Some are saying that boom never came and many say their business is going bust.
A Game Of Inches: 4 Takeaways From A Dizzying Iran-Egypt Draw
This was a pulsating game that came down to one call that flipped the knockout round fates of three teams.
Healthcare AI Leaders Are Rapidly Trying To Outmaneuver Skyrocketing Memory And GPU Costs
Compute power has become one of the most crucial components of the healthcare delivery cycle.
George Clooney's wife Amal admits life was 'easier' before marrying the Oscar winner
George Clooney's wife Amal says life with the 'Ocean's 11' star is not always easy.
Police seek help identifying suspect in California Avenue business break-in
The Bakersfield Police Department is asking for the community’s help in identifying a man accused of breaking into a business on California AvenuePolice said it
Live Results: Louisiana midterm primary runoffs
Louisiana Republicans will nominate a candidate for U.S. Senate in a primary runoff Saturday, six weeks after denying Republican U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy a shot at a third term.
Mia Sara reflects on working with ‘weird guy’ Tom Cruise in 'Legend'
Mia Sara recalls working with Tom Cruise in the Ridley Scott film 'Legend,' saying the actor was 'very insecure.'
OpenAI launches limited preview of GPT-5.6 at US government's request
OpenAI said they were complying as part of its agreement with the Department of Defense, which allows the department to use its AI models.
Why the Amex Business Gold is my go-to card for business expenses
The Amex Business Gold makes earning rewards simple with automatic bonus categories, flexible Membership Rewards points and statement credits that help offset its annual fee.
Why JD Vance is downplaying Richard Nixon’s corruption
It’s not every day that you see the would-be frontrunner for a major party’s presidential nomination extolling the virtues of Richard Nixon and downplaying his corruption.
Health fears as Brimpsfield water cut off on hottest days
Village residents criticise Thames Water after saying they have been left without water for 48 hours.
Stillwater’s early start for school is big challenge for football, fall sports
Learn why Stillwater is starting early and how teams are trying to make adjustments.
Moderna highlights expanding mRNA platform at Science Day
Moderna's Horizon programme contains a variety of mRNA assets in varying stages of development, including a preclinical in vivo candidate.
Two Yankees Pitching Prospects ‘Turning Heads’ in Minors This Year
The old saying is you can never have enough pitching, which the New York Yankees have apparently taken to heart. The Yankees have a stockpile of potential starting-pitching arms in the minor leagues, including Elmer Rodriguez, and two “head turning” prospects, Ben Hess and Chase Hampton. The Yankees lead the majors in team ERA (3.30) […] The post Two Yankees Pitching Prospects ‘Turning Heads’ in Minors This Year appeared first on HEAVY.
Health experts keep Summerfest attendees healthy
On top of staying hydrated and wearing sunscreen, Aurora Health Care encourages wearing comfortable shoes and clothing.
Scientists Turn Wet Coffee Grounds Into Coal-Like Fuel in Just 90 Seconds
A new process skips energy-intensive drying for recycling coffee waste.
Warren Buffett Bought A Business For $1.7B ‘Over The Phone Without Ever Meeting The People There’ Using The ‘Most Valuable Skill’ He Learned
Buying a company for $1.7 billion without meeting management sounds like the kind of decision that would keep lawyers busy for months. Warren Buffett did it over the phone. Speaking at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 2003, Berkshire Hathaway Chair...
I own a Turkish restaurant in SF. The World Cup changed my business.
Turkey playing in San Francisco as part of the FIFA World Cup 2026 has brought new customers to one restaurant, Turquaz's owner told Business Insider.
Strategy Of Employing AI Mental Health Chatbots As School Psych Counselors For Teens
Teens increasingly have mental health issues, schools are trying to keep up. School psychologists are costly. LLMs can be an amplifier as a tool. An AI Insider scoop.
Slotkin says Democratic Party needs 'new leadership': 'Old models are no longer working'
Sen Elissa Slotkin calls for new Democratic Party leadership, saying old models no longer work and the party must simplify its message to win back voters.
Hollywood gets into the microdrama race as mobile-first storytelling draws stars and major studios
While much of Hollywood was consumed by the streaming wars, Issa Rae was studying a different mode of entertainment thousands of miles away: microdramas. No stranger to creating a successful online s...
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Caitlin Clark made the WNBA bigger. It’s still playing small
The league’s paltry one-game suspension of Alyssa Thomas after her fist to Caitlin Clark's throat barely begins to address the problem.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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