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Study finds no link between medical gender reassignment and improved mental health among young people
An extensive register-based study conducted in Finland has found an increase in severe mental health problems among some adolescents and young adults who have undergone medical gender reassignment (GR). ...
Bill to expand subacute mental health care access goes to governor's desk
A bill that aims to expand access to subacute mental health care, which is one step below hospitalization, is on its way to the governor’s desk.
Colorado lawmakers set to debate bill to keep sex offenders out of mental health facilities near sch
EPA, DDA, Renew Pledge to First State Farming, Environmental Health with Memorandum of Understanding - State of Delaware News
The MOU covers topics from communication and education to environmental stewardship, funding opportunities and regulatory programs.
Colorado lawmakers set to debate bill to keep sex offenders out of mental health facilities near schools
Colorado lawmakers were set to discuss a bill that would keep sex offenders from being admitted to mental health facilities near schools after a Northglenn community's repeated attempts for safeguards.
MusiCares Launches Groundbreaking Suicide Prevention Training And Mental Health Resources For Music Professionals In Partnership With The Jed Foundation
The groundbreaking digital microsite provides suicide prevention and mental health resources, evidence-informed learning and support tools, and a suicide prevention training course — all tailored to music professionals.
Trump’s mental acuity in question amid pattern of erratic behavior
Each moment on its own … maybe you brush it off. But together, people are asking: what exactly are we watching?
Advancing Mental Health Worldwide: Five Core Elements for Effective Strategies
More than one billion people worldwide live with a mental health condition (MHC). Despite the significant downstream economic, societal, and health challenges a
Community Routes: Access to Mental Health Care Program Bolsters Services Across Three States
Direct Relief, Teva Pharmaceuticals, and the National Association of Free and Charitable Clinics, or NAFC, today announced a second round of grant funding in the amount of $75,000 to each of 11 fre…
Morning Break: Saints partner with UnitedHealthcare to spotlight mental health
A collection of headlines and news about the Saints and the NFL for Tuesday, April 14
The Business of Resilience
Discover how resilience means building forward, not bouncing back. Explore JEFRË's monumental art and why celebrating living artists matters.
Iowa House passes bill expanding subacute mental health care
A bill aiming to remove barriers for mental health access in Iowa is heading to the governor's desk.
Building a mission-ready DAF mental health enterprise for the future fight
Air Force Medical Service leaders advanced the efforts to align mental health policy, training and leadership practices to mission readiness requirements outlined in the Department of War’s 2026 National Defense Strategy, during the Mental Health Leadership and Readiness Symposium in Orlando, Florida, on March 9-12.
After contentious debates, Lexington board approves Chevy Chase mental health clinic
The proposed 52-bed clinic from Roaring Brook has been accused by neighbors of being a drug rehab clinic. The company says otherwise.
STAR Seminar- Reimagining Youth Sport as a Brain-Based Environment for Mental Health
Youth mental health challenges are rising globally, yet one of the most accessible youth-serving systems — sport— remains underutilized as a public health strategy. This Stress, Trauma, and Resilience (STAR) Seminar explores how insights from developmental neuroscience, trauma research, and sport-based youth development can transform everyday sport experiences into environments that promote regulation, connection, and resilience.
Children's Hospital Colorado warns parents of yearly April increase in mental health emergencies
Iran: Israel’s Oil Depot Strikes Endanger Environment, Health
Israeli attacks on four oil depots around Tehran on March 7, 2026 may cause long-term health and environmental harm for civilians.
Portland Lawmaker Wants to Majorly Turn Up the Dial on Forced Mental Health and Addiction Treatment
“If someone is in the fentanyl fold out on the streets, they are not living their best life,” state Sen. Lisa Reynolds says.
Dickey Arctic innovation fellow Matthew Druckenmiller named International Arctic Science Committee president
Druckenmiller will lead the intergovernmental science organization for the next four years.
Bethel conference highlights how ‘better science occurs’ with local knowledge at the table
Researchers and local experts gathered in Bethel in early April to share and compare environmental knowledge at the Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference, particularly across issues facing the Yukon-Kuwkoksim Delta.
Fury at California's 'insane' mental health diversion program after shock Lil Nas X ruling
“California’s mental health system is the definition of insanity"
Courageous Leadership and Mental Health Take Center Stage at Women’s Leadership Institute Event
The Women’s Leadership Institute brought its April Career Development Series to the Interform Club at America First Field, gathering women from across Utah for a morning focused on Courageous Leadership and Mental Health. Hosted in partnership with the Larry H. Miller Company, the event explored breaking the stigma surrounding mental
How California Can Improve Access to Mental Health Services | Pomona College in Claremont, California
Professor Sara Masland examines existing barriers to accessing mental health services, the risks associated with using AI as a therapist and the importance of early intervention in the state’s new Mental Health for All initiative.
College student reflects on mental health struggles and how her "school mom and school dad" changed her life
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
How Orban Lost His Touch, and Hungary’s Election
The election defeat for Prime Minister Viktor Orban is less the result of an ideological shift in Hungary, and more the playing out of a fundamental rule of politics.
How to spot and help someone in a mental health crisis
Experts wish more people spotted the signs earlier: feeling overwhelmed, not feeling “like yourself,” shifts in sleep, behavior and mood.
How to help someone experiencing a mental health crisis
If you know someone is in a mental health crisis, experts say the best thing to do is to spark a conversation and connect them to resources and professional help.
Mercy Health’s Mercy Serves program is hepling mental health challenges
Mercy Health’s Mercy Serves program is helping mental health challenges.
County Tyrone: Campaigners claim gold mine plans would risk public health
Dalradian says its said it its proposals would "build an environmentally responsible project".
Mental health deaths may be missed in maternal data
Suicides and overdoses may be undercounted in maternal deaths, limiting awareness.
Mental health stressors peak in Colorado mountain communities as the winter-that-wasn’t melts into offseason
Demand for counseling is surging as mountain communities empty, costs rise and work ebbs. “It feels like tension is really high.”
Entrepreneurship was never easy, but it doesn’t need to be relentless
Why entrepreneurs and small business owners struggle with mental health, and how intelligent systems can improve that.
USC Brain Health Center could be hub for Alzheimer’s treatment, new tech for mental health
A new $30 million Brain Health Center at USC in Columbia will be a magnet for advanced diagnosis and treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia but also deploy new technology for mental health.
South Plainfield HS Environmental Science Club Members Research 100 Years of Plastic
SOUTH PLAINFIELD, NJ - Last month, the Borough turned a century old and members of the South Plainfield High School Environmental Science Club joined in the celebration with a research project that...
Get a Pokémon TCG: <em>Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising</em> Build & Battle Box Early
Open booster packs from a Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box at a Prerelease event near you.
Can AI Fix the Mental Health Crisis?
Demand is outpacing care. AI tools are already filling the gap. But are they safe, effective, and ready for clinical practice?
MSU hosts Out of the Darkness Campus Walk for mental health awareness
Michigan State University students gathered this morning to raise mental health awareness.
How Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Narratives Are Shifting As Analysts Recut Targets And Takeover Nears
Golden Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been nudged from US$30.50 to US$30.00 per share, a small adjustment that still keeps the story focused around a US$30 mark. Some analysts view this US$0.50 trim as an incremental shift that reflects updated valuation inputs rather than a major change in the underlying outlook, while more cautious voices see it as a signal of reduced conviction at recent prices. As you read on, you will see how this updated target fits into the evolving analyst...
Care Solace to provide mental health coordination services in Beaumont
Beaumont residents will soon have access to 24/7 mental health care coordination service.
PhD Alumni Jessie Croteau Wins WPSA’s Environmental Political Theory Paper Award
Dr. Jessie Croteau, who received her PhD in 2025, was awarded the 2026 Environmental Political Theory Best Paper Award at the Western Political Science Association (WPSA) for her paper “In Praise of Decay, Toward a Politics of Compost”. This award is given to the author of the best paper in environmental political theory presented at...
Gary Woodland takes another step at managing mental health at Masters
Gary Woodland believes he took another step toward managing his mental health issues. "Today was peaceful," he said after a 66 in final round of the Masters.
UCLA Gets $33M Grant for Youth Mental Health Training
UCLA received $33 million from Ballmer Group to expand youth mental health workforce training in Los Angeles County, aiming to produce 2,600 new graduates by 2031.
Vegas Golden Knights Announce Plans for Mental Health Awareness Knight on April 13
Mental Health Awareness Knight is presented by Zoox
Barricaded suspect involved in hit-and-run, placed on mental health hold
A 28-year-old Santa Clarita man was arrested on suspicion of hit-and-run, DUI and was placed on a mental health hold after being involved in a hit-and-run incident northbound Interstate 5 near San Fernando Mission, according to […]
St. Augustine food festival raises money for mental health and addiction services
GSK sees blockbuster potential in targeted cancer therapy after promising early data
British drugmaker GSK's experimental targeted cancer drug Mo-rez has blockbuster potential, its head of oncology research has told reporters, after early data showed the drug helped shrink tumors in patients with advanced, hard-to-treat cancers.
Prosecutors seek reforms to California’s ‘broken’ mental health diversion program
District attorneys throughout the state are pushing for legislative changes that would tighten up requirements under which a judge can grant diversion.
Bill calls for mental health assessments be made available for all Virginia 6-12th graders
A proposed law would ask that mental health assessments be made available for all sixth-12th grade public school students in Virginia.
How to Limit The Health Risks Posed by Polluted Air
By Carole Tanzer Miller HealthDay ReporterSUNDAY, April 12, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Air pollution just isn’t what it used to be. While levels of lead and sulfur dioxide have dropped due to environmental regulations, other threats to air quality persist. Particle pollution, ozone and wildfire smoke ...
Mental Health Awareness of Michiana holds cake fundraiser
Mental Health Awareness of Michiana offers a bite of comfort food — cake. The fundraiser at Howard Park will feature professional and amateur bakers.
'It was a cry for help' | Family mourns father killed in police shooting, says he struggled with mental health
The man's family asked that his identity, as well as their own, not be disclosed because they have not yet notified all of his extended family about what happened.
Life on Mars? Tiny cells just survived shock waves and toxic soil
Mars may be hostile, but it might not be entirely unlivable. In lab experiments, yeast cells survived simulated Martian shock waves and toxic perchlorate salts—two major environmental threats on the Red Planet. Their secret weapon was forming protective molecular clusters that shield critical cellular functions under stress. Without these defenses, survival plummeted, pointing to a potential universal strategy life could use beyond Earth.
Our View: Michigan must stop exporting its mental health crisis
Michigan is sending children hundreds of miles away for mental health treatment because it has failed to build the capacity to care for them at home.
New Harlem mental health clinic expands access to services for families
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
State floats major mental health funding shift that could jeopardize North Bay mobile crisis teams
The proposed shift would shoulder counties with as much as $130 million annually to sustain the programs. For many, it would open a gap they can’t fill.
Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Draft Need Analysis: Quarterback
The Lions seem solid at the QB position for 2026, but could they add a developmental QB?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
San Jose faces legal heat over mental health crisis calls
A group of civil rights organizations is ratcheting up the legal pressure on San Jose over longstanding complaints that too often mental health-related emergency calls receive a police response — rather than assistance from mental health professionals.
Arsenal: Open-play attack and mentality of Mikel Arteta's side warrants scrutiny after Bournemouth loss opens door for Man City
Oregon's Dante Moore a model for mental health advocacy, teammates say
Oregon QB Dante Moore sent a letter to the governor about his mental health struggles and the need for services. His teammates praise his advocacy.
New metal with triple copper’s heat conduction challenges fundamental physics
With performance three times better than copper’s, this new material could substantially improve heat management of electronics, data centers and energy systems
How Congress’s bipartisan high point led to our era of political rancor
36 years ago, a Republican president and Democratic lawmakers produced monumental laws. Now, a broken Congress has enabled Trump to undo key parts of that legacy.
$600K grant expands school-based mental health support across Wisconsin
The funding, from the Roots & Wings Foundation, will support a school-based mental health initiative led by the WEA Member Benefits Foundation.
Viewing Artemis II from the Science Central planetarium
One of their experts shared her thoughts on the monumental mission and how she is helping educate the community.
How mental health court works and who qualifies
After an 8-hour standoff, a 28-year-old man faces charges as his mother seeks civil commitment and his missed mental health court appearance comes to light.
Rural Mental Health Hub Offers Tools, Training, and Support
A new program from Rural Minds gives farmers tools to recognize mental health struggles, start conversations, and offer support.
‘What Is Failing Again: Jalyx Hunt Talks Perseverance, Mental Health at Last Lecture
Jalyx Hunt, Philadelphia Eagles outside linebacker and Super Bowl Champion, delivered this year’s Last Lecture focusing on resilience, failure and mental health on Friday afternoon.
UT Dallas researchers using body movement to predict mental health crises
Thomas S. Langner, Who Linked Social Ills to Mental Illness, Dies at 102
He helped lead what became known as the Midtown Manhattan Study, which showed that mental impairment is highly correlated with low socioeconomic status.
5th Annual Clinical Mental Health Counseling Virtual Conference
The Commonwealth University of Pennsylvania - Lock Haven, Department of Counseling & Educational Leadership, Clinical Men
Spring Mountain Treatment Center launches program to support moms’ mental health
Pregnancy and the early years of motherhood can be an emotional time, but for some women it can also bring serious mental health challenges. Spring Mountain Tre
Your Next Breach Will Look Like Business as Usual
These are the fundamental detection model shifts cybersecurity teams need to make to keep up with the rising number of credential-based attacks.
Celebrating 25 Years of Caldwell University’s Master’s degree in Clinical Mental Health Counseling with Art Therapy Concentration
Caldwell, NJ – Caldwell University’s Master’s degree in Clinical Mental Health Counseling with Art Therapy Concentration program has been molding students into dynamic mental health professionals for 25 years. This […]
The ‘Emotional Support Daughter’—How Family Roles Shape Women’s Mental Health
Why many women were raised to manage everyone else’s feelings, and what it costs them in adulthood.
Microsoft finally lets Windows 11 testers unlock experimental features without ViVeTool
The changes are part of the fix Windows 11 effort
Missing Oakland woman's husband gives details on her mental health
Amy Hillyard, 52, has been missing since March 25.
Parental Depression: How Does Timing Impact Mental Health in Adult Offspring?
Research from Yale Child Study Center reveals how the timing of maternal and paternal depression affects adult mental health outcomes in the next generation.
Neuroscientist To Lead Engineering-Driven Brain Health Research
Dr. Matthew Walker joined UT Dallas in January to build the future of sleep science. His research spans fundamental neuroscience and the development of innovative engineering tools to improve the quality of life. Dr. Matthew Walker is helping to transform sleep research from an observational field into one in which engineered solutions can measure and […]
Neuroscientist To Lead Engineering-Driven Brain Health Research
Dr. Matthew Walker joined UT Dallas in January to build the future of sleep science. His research spans fundamental neuroscience and the development of innovative engineering tools to improve the quality of life. Dr. Matthew Walker is helping to transform sleep research from an observational field into one in which engineered solutions can measure and […]
King County’s mental health expansion 'moving way too slowly,' Zahilay says
We sat down with King County Executive Girmay Zahilay to discuss his vision for mental health and substance use care amid shaky federal and state funding.
Legislators, behavioral health professionals discuss Westmoreland County mental health goals, challenges
Legislators and behavioral health professionals will discuss the mental health challenges and priorities among Westmoreland County residents Friday. The fourth annual mental health legislative breakfast, held at the Westmoreland Intermediate Unit, is a partnership between Westmoreland County Commissioner Doug Chew, Mental Health America of Southwestern Pennsylvania and Adelphoi. This year’s
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr. talks mental health with Aurora elementary students
Partnering with Aurora Mental Health & Recovery, Mims has prioritized discussing mental health with youth in the area.
Student-Led Fresh Check Day Promotes Importance of Student Mental Health - University of New Haven
A public health capstone course empowers students to design and lead an evidence-based mental health initiative, building peer-to-peer support and enriching campus awareness and suicide prevention readiness.
Scientists to discuss Suncoast environmental threats at free Sarasota panel
One researches dolphin pods in Sarasota Bay. Another studies the impacts of pollution in area waterways. A third leads a consortium that strives to bring awareness to the work of local scientists. Those experts, along with another local environmental advocate, will lead a panel discussion moderated by Suncoast Searchlight on
Inland Northwest families face mental health coverage gaps
COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho — A leader with the Northern Idaho Crisis Center said insurance coverage gaps are leaving some families without enough behavioral health support when they most need it.
Sherrill’s plan to overhaul school mental health services draws criticism
NJ’s current system has detractors, but critics of Sherrill’s plan call it untested
Project Indigo expands support to iPads and the iPhone 17e
The new update to Adobe’s experimental camera app adds initial support for iPads with at least 6GB of RAM and the new iPhone 17e.
Goodwill closes behavioral health services program in Grand Island
Goodwill is shutting down behavioral health programs in Grand Island, which served those struggling with developmental disabilities, brain injuries, mental health, substance use and more.
Study finds acne scarring linked to mental health impacts; Doctors urge early treatment
Acne scars may affect more than your skin — new research shows deeper impact.
Cameron Brink Applauds Lauren Betts’ Mental Health Advocacy After NCAA Title Win
Before Lauren Betts became a national champion with the UCLA women’s basketball team, the superstar center was a freshman serving in a backup role behind All-Americans Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen at Stanford. Betts averaged 5.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and…
6 Things Men Need to Know About Mental Health
It can be difficult for some men to know when they’re struggling — and when to seek help.
3L Rachel Sadler Charts Path in Brain Health, Technology, and Policy Through UC Law SF’s Health Law Concentration - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
3L Rachel Sadler studies health law and policy at UC Law SF while researching the legal implications of neurotechnology and other emerging tools that may affect human cognition. 3L student Rachel Sadler shares how UC Law SF’s Health Law Concentration prepared her for a career focused on the intersection of brain health, government policy, and technology. Gained a detailed understanding of how U.S. health care is regulated and where policy reform is needed through coursework and research. Interned with state and federal agencies that regulate health care services and worked with a major health care provider’s bioethics department. Plans to pursue a career focused on protecting cognitive liberty and mental privacy as new technologies reshape healthcare. 3L Rachel Sadler: The Health Law Concentration has given me fluency in one of the most complex regulated industries and the tools to become an effective advocate for better health policy. Before coming to law school, I spent a decade teaching and working with teachers and administrators on high school programming for multilingual learners. Healthcare kept emerging as the most powerful driver of student outcomes. I wanted to understand how to make effective policy change in this area and how to use existing law to defend people’s health rights in California. Through the concentration’s coursework, I gained a sophisticated understanding of how U.S. healthcare is regulated. I also learned where the pressure points for reform exist. The courses gave me space to develop what became my central research interest: how law and policy can be built to protect human cognition and healthy brain development, particularly regarding new technologies such as generative AI and neurotechnology. The health law faculty were instrumental in that process, genuinely invested in helping me and other students define and pursue our own intellectual vision. During law school, I interned at the General Counsel’s Office for Region IX of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. I also externed at the California Department of Justice’s Health, Education and Welfare Division. Additionally, I externed at Kaiser Permanente Northern California’s Bioethics Department. Alongside those placements, I conducted extensive independent research on mental privacy and emerging neurotechnology, working closely with Professors Emily Murphy and George Horvath. That research became the throughline of my law school experience and the foundation of my current policy focus. I must also credit Nicole Ozer of the Center for Constitutional Democracy (CCD), whose deep knowledge of California privacy law and the public-interest privacy landscape deeply informed my work. I currently serve a research assistant with the CCD, where I spearhead the development of K-12 educational resources in partnership with law faculty and students. I’ve found UC Law SF to be an ideal place for second-career, nontraditional students. There is a tremendous diversity of life and career experience here, and I felt fully welcomed into the community, despite returning as a student at a different stage of life. I came to law school wanting to promote equity in California’s healthcare system. I am leaving with a sharper and more specific ambition: to build a policy career focused on protecting cognitive liberty and mental privacy from technological intrusion. This is both an urgent and underserved area of law, and I want to be part of defining this landscape going forward. Whether as a practicing attorney or a policy advisor, I plan to work on these issues after law school. I strongly recommend UC Law SF and the Health Law Concentration. When I arrived in law school, I worried the concentration would be narrow and that my non-clinical background would be a disadvantage. The opposite was true. The health law faculty thinks about health expansively, encompassing social determinants of health, structural inequity, and emerging technologies alongside the regulatory mechanics of the industry. The faculty are accessible, intellectually generous, and genuinely invested in students’ development. I found my research vision here, and I deeply appreciate the concentration’s role in this. The Evidence of Success series highlights UC Law SF students as they share how the College’s opportunities equip them with the experience, skills, and confidence to excel in the legal profession.
NC builders chase billions in defense deals at Wilmington conference
A big federal construction conference takes place next week at the convention center in Wilmington. It is the Southeast Region Construction, Infrastructure and Environmental Summit, held by the North Carolina Military Business Center. Courtney Smedick at the NCMBC says that the conference is about to sell out, so if you want to attend, you should […]
Experts set 2030 nutrition science goals for resilient food systems
As the second quarter of the 21st century unfolds, experts are examining the state of nutrition as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) deadline looms with five years remaining. To achieve these targets, a new paper outlines key goals for nutrition science from 2025 to 2030. The Frontiers in Nutrition publication discusses the interconnectedness between nutrition, food security, and sustainability in complex food systems affected by shocks, policies, and environmental limits. The researchers reveal how these modern factors impact nutrition science and shape research agendas.
Integrative experiment design reveals hidden patterns in decades-old social science research
Led by MIT Sloan School of Management PhD graduate Mohammed Alsobay and associate professor Abdullah Almaatouq, the researchers demonstrate that integrative experiment design, an approach that systematically varies multiple experimental conditions within a shared design space, enables researchers to discover how factors combine to determine social and behavioral outcomes.