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Arsenal head of sports science performance departs
Arsenal head of sports science performance Tom Allen is the latest member of the club's backroom team set to leave the club.
Arsenal head of sports science performance departs
Arsenal head of sports science performance Tom Allen is the latest member of the club's backroom team set to leave the club.
Arsenal head of sports science performance departs
Arsenal head of sports science performance Tom Allen is the latest member of the club's backroom team set to leave the club.
Arsenal head of sports science performance departs
Arsenal head of sports science performance Tom Allen is the latest member of the club's backroom team set to leave the club.
Supreme Court says Fed's Lisa Cook can keep her job for now, but it upholds other Trump firings
The Supreme Court on Monday dramatically expanded presidential power, upholding President Donald Trump’s firings of the heads of independent federal agencies with one important exception, the Federal Reserve.
Supreme Court expands Trump’s power over the federal bureaucracy
The justices allowed the president to fire a Democratic member of the Federal Trade Commission, striking down a nearly century-old precedent intended to insulate independent agencies from political influence by the executive.
Supreme Court Expands Presidential Power by Allowing Trump to Fire F.T.C. Official
President Trump’s firing tested a precedent that had insulated independent regulators. But the justices carved out the “unique role” of the Federal Reserve.
Blake Duncan & Scott Hendricks Launch TAYCAN Entertainment
Blake Duncan and Scott Hendricks have launched TAYCAN Entertainment, a Nashville-based independent [...]
Supreme Court rejects legal battle over New York's COVID-19 vaccine mandate for healthcare workers
The dispute arose after New York's Department of Health issued an emergency rule that required healthcare workers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
Digital research repository arXiv to start new chapter as nonprofit
On July 1, the digital research respository arXiv, house at Cornell Tech, will transition to an independent nonprofit, enabling faster technological development, expanded partnerships and long-term financial sustainability.
OpenAI sets up 'warroom' to fix Codex limit issues
OpenAI investigates Codex's usage limit depletion that's impacting some users. The company has reset user caps to address the problem.
FAIR Health Price-Informed Tools Support Healthcare Decisions Among Diverse Older Adults
/PRNewswire/ -- Price-informed shared decision-making tools developed by FAIR Health, a national, independent nonprofit, can facilitate meaningful healthcare...
Conservation efforts emphasize the lesser prairie chicken
Reid DeWalt, deputy director of Colorado Parks and Wildlife, spoke to the Water Resources and Agriculture Review Committee about the Lesser Prairie Chicken and moving conservation forward. He said in 2026, CPW staff counted 77 males on 13 leks, a number that has dropped year over year since 2024. There are fewer than 1,000 chickens […]
Comcast Announces Plans to Separate Media and Technology Businesses Into Two Leading Public Companies
Comcast Corporation (Nasdaq: CMCSA) today announced its intention to separate into two independent publicly traded companies through a tax-free spin-off of N...
How Jude Bellingham SAVED England against Panama
England are through to the World Cup knockout rounds following a 2-0 win over Panama. But after another sluggish start, which looked for a while like it could be a repeat of the Ghana game, Jude Bellingham both scored and assisted to get England through. Adam Clery looks at how, without Declan Rice in the side, Bellingham played every single midfield role to drag Thomas Tuchel's side to a vital win.
Report: Chelsea to make move for La Liga defender
Chelsea Monitor Pep Chavarría as Left Back OptionChelsea Explore Fresh Defensive OptionChelsea’s search for greater depth at left back appears to have taken them to Spain, with Marca reporting that...
Lewandowski close to Chicago Fire switch
Poland's record scorer is set for a big-money move to the MLS after his departure from Barcelona.
Colorado’s regulations should address policy challenges only as truly needed
As Colorado approaches its 150th birthday, we should remember its first 100 years were characterized by repeated boom-and-bust economic cycles. Dependence on mineral extraction and agricultural commodity prices was subject to the volatility of these markets. In 1972, as I arrived in Denver with Ma Bell, 40,000 metro households were waiting for dial tone since […]
Conservative presidential power expert set to assist investigation into Trump foes
John Yoo — a well-known and, in some legal and political circles, infamous conservative lawyer — will assist a Justice Department investigation that has theorized a yearslong conspiracy against President Donald Trump and is looking at several former high-ranking federal officials.
Caldwell University Professors Join Nationwide "Phage Hunters" Science Alliance
Caldwell, NJ – Three professors of Caldwell University’s Department of Natural Sciences, Dr. Maria Agapito, Dr. Darryl Aucoin, and Dr. Hector Loyola Irizarry, attended the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) […]
Breakthrough could lead to ‘big leaps’ in battery performance, scientists say
Researchers studied lithium-ion batteries, which are used for electric vehicles as well as portable electronics such as mobile phones and laptops.
Arkansas Department of Health urges caution during extreme heat
Now that it is officially summer, state health officials want to make sure you're on guard against the extreme heat.
Rabid raccoon found in Manorville, Suffolk health department says
The Suffolk County Department of Health Services is reporting that a racoon found in Manorville has tested positive for rabies.
1 dead after shooting involving St. Pete police officer
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (WFLA)— One person is dead after a shooting involving a St. Petersburg police officer. According to the St. Petersburg Police Department, an officer was involved in a shooting …
Rep. Ryan rejects rolling back of PFAS cleanup at Stewart air base
Pat Ryan, a Democrat who represents New York’s 18th Congressional District, says the Department of Defense is looking to reduce statutory reporting requirements for PFAS at military installations.
Second Measles Case of 2026 Confirmed by Wyoming Department of Health
The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) has confirmed a case of measles in an unvaccinated adult from Teton County. Measles is a highly contagious infection that can cause severe illness. The public may have been exposed to measles at the following locations and times: Cafe Court Pizzeria and Ranch House Restaurant, Colter Bay Village, Grand […]
GOP Sen. Tillis on Acting AG Blanche: ‘If there’s even a whiff of a lack of independence, then that could influence my vote’
Laramie County health and food inspections (6/19/26–6/25/26)
CHEYENNE, Wyo. — The Cheyenne-Laramie County Health Department inspects restaurants, bars, convenience stores, delis, grocery stores, bed and breakfasts
Natrona County health and food inspections (6/19/26–6/25/26)
CASPER, Wyo. — The Casper-Natrona County Health Department inspects restaurants, grocery stores, convenience stores, mobile food units, commissaries and
NFL players come together to shine light on men's mental health in Kensington
The initiative brings together athletes, mental health professionals, and community leaders to raise awareness about challenges like depression and anxiety.
'The fate of Earth depends on a delicate balance': Our planet may survive the death of the sun after all, new models hint
When the sun dies, it will become hundreds of times its current size and engulf the innermost planets. Earth may escape this infernal fate, according to state-of-the-art stellar evolution models.
Jimmie Williams could be Ohio State’s most important transfer addition
After averaging more than 15 points per game at Duquesne, Jimmie Williams brings physical scoring, positional versatility, and the dependable bench offense Ohio State has lacked in recent seasons.
Huntsville health department hosting no-cost prostate exams
Prostate cancer can be treated and cured with early screenings, according to Dr. Thomas Moody with the Urology Health Foundation.
4 Marketing Lessons Every Business Can Learn From the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Nike, Adidas, Home Depot, and FIFA itself offer a powerful reminder: marketing success depends on far more than how much you spend.
Our picks for the best things to do in Cincinnati this week, June 29-July 5
If you're wanting to see some fireworks this week, we've got you covered. Find an event in your community to celebrate Independence Day.
Robison leaves legacy of building partnerships as he accepts next public health challenge at state level
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'Bye-bye, Scotland!' - Clarke's leaving letter to the Tartan Army
Steve Clarke's letter to the Scotland fans in full following his departure as head coach.
Private Selection chicken breast product target of health alert
The U.S. Department of Agriculture wants people who may have purchased a variety of Private Selection raw boneless chicken breasts to check their freezers or refrigerators in case they still have them.
Private Selection chicken breast product target of health alert
The U.S. Department of Agriculture wants people who may have purchased a variety of Private Selection raw boneless chicken breasts to check their freezers or refrigerators in case they still have them.
Texas Democrats welcome Bernie Sanders and plunge into economic populism
In speeches and conversations throughout the convention, Texas Democrats embraced affordability and anti-corruption themes championed by the Independent senator from Vermont.
Here's How Much A 2022 Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing Has Depreciated In 4 Years
Starting at $60,390 in 2022, the Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing did a solid job at fighting depreciation over the last four years, now trading in the low $50,000s.
14 unique ways to celebrate America’s 250th birthday
Fireworks, hotdogs and summer blockbuster movies are Independence Day staples. But this year brings a flurry of unique and alternative events where Americans can come together, put aside our differences,
Shelby County Health Dept. offers free HIV testing
In honor of National HIV Testing Day, the Shelby County Health Department hosted free testing on Saturday, and they urged anyone thinking about getting tested to do it now.
You’ve never seen this before: the shocking moment the sound barrier breaks - Futura-Sciences
The XB-1 is a critical stepping stone toward commercial supersonic travel, representing the first civil designed aircraft to break the sound barrier since the Concorde retired. To verify the aircraft’s aerodynamic performance during its supersonic transition, NASA deployed an advanced optical technology called schlieren imaging to make the invisible forces...
Millions drop Obamacare health coverage after subsidies expire and costs rise
New federal figures show that about 3 million fewer people had Affordable Care Act health insurance plans in February compared with the same time last year. The Department of Health and Human Services...
Health Department releases food inspection reports for week of June 14
Scores for the recent Health Department food inspection ranged from 74-100.
How Domo went from a $2.8 billion darling to fighting for its survival
Domo has been rocked by executive departures, new competition from AI agents, and the drunken-driving arrest of its founder and CEO, Josh James.
Trump admin rule puts reproductive health care for 160K Pa. patients at risk, lawsuit says
Spotlight PA is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit newsroom producing investigative and public-service journalism that holds power to account and...
Steelers’ Drew Allar Addresses Rookie Role Behind Aaron Rodgers
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Drew Allar spoke out on his place behind Aaron Rodgers on the team's depth chart entering 2026 NFL training camp. The post Steelers’ Drew Allar Addresses Rookie Role Behind Aaron Rodgers appeared first on HEAVY.
🗞 Today’s back pages: Baena downs Uruguay, the Dembélé show...
Spain’s victory over Uruguay dominates the sports newspaper headlines, but let’s take a look at how the main newspapers around the world are covering it.MARCAASMundo DeportivoSPORTL'EquipeSuperdep...
Federal health officials recall chicken, other items in Washington
The Washington State Department of Health recalled chicken, pasta salad and raisins for potentially containing unlisted ingredients.
Readers Write: Traffic speeds, bike lanes, deportations, political characters, kids these days
On the road, chill out and save money.
Police seek help identifying suspect in California Avenue business break-in
The Bakersfield Police Department is asking for the community’s help in identifying a man accused of breaking into a business on California AvenuePolice said it
Raccoon tests positive for rabies in Harford County: health officials
A raccoon tested positive for rabies, the Harford County Health Department announced Friday.
The 5-Question Org Chart Audit I Run Before Scaling AI Across a Business
AI success depends less on the technology and more on the organization behind it. These five questions help leaders identify the structural barriers that prevent AI from delivering real business impact.
Health Brief: Inside the CDC nominee’s finances
Plus: Supreme Court ruling sparks health worker deportation fears
Jessica Plummer new deputy administrator of Behavioral Health Services
A founding department staff member, Jessica Plummer has stepped into the new role of deputy administrator for Larimer County Behavioral Health Services (BHS)
General manager arrested for stealing over $40,000 from Black Canyon City business
An investigation found that financial records had been deleted, documentation was incomplete and deposits were missing.
NM health officials report fox in McKinley County tests positive for rabies
The New Mexico Department of Health on June 25, 2026, reported a rabid fox in McKinley County and urged residents to vaccinate their pets.
OpenAI launches limited preview of GPT-5.6 at US government's request
OpenAI said they were complying as part of its agreement with the Department of Defense, which allows the department to use its AI models.
Faculty voice: The creative tension of America’s founding documents
Eric Gonzalez Juenke, an associate professor at MSU's Department of Political Science, reflects on the founding documents of America and what it means 250 years later.
MSU Vet Tech program awarded $150k NIFA-USDA grant
Morehead State University's nationally ranked veterinary technology program was recently awarded significant financial support to help it maintain its place as the #1 program of its kind in Kentucky. The National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), part of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), awarded MSU's vet tech program a $150,000 NIFA-USDA grant for equipment to support small and large veterinary technology education and workforce competency at MSU. Learn more about veterinary technology programs at MSU by emailing Staton at a.staton@moreheadstate.edu or calling 606-783-2328. Find out more about MSU's veterinary technology program by calling 606-783-2662.
From Linchpin to Lever — Part 1: Measuring Trust in Public Health
Learn how local health departments can measure public trust using existing public health tools to strengthen relationships and improve community health outcomes.
Your Social Security benefits could be cut by a quarter in 2032. Here’s what to know
Americans’ Social Security benefits will have to be cut by roughly a quarter in six years due to depleted funds, according to a June 9 report from the Social Security Board of Trustees. That’s months sooner than the group had estimated in 2025.
Making sense of what Lars Tiffany’s lawsuit says about UVA sports
Analyzing a few points made by Tiffany’s camp and what they indicate about the UVA athletic department’s approach.
Moncks Corner woman, 35, charged after running business without retail license
A Berkely County woman was charged after South Carolina Department of Revenue officals found that she was with operating a business without a Retail LicenseFrid
Texas A&M horticultural sciences students, faculty earn national recognition
Students and faculty within the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Sciences received national awards for research, outreach and academics.
Business owner in South Carolina arrested, officials say
A business owner in South Carolina was arrested Friday and is accused of operating without a retail license, according to the South Carolina Department of Revenue.
Remigration: a growing far-right movement
Once a fringe position, calls for mass deportation are spreading throughout Europe and entering mainstream politics
Business Owners Agree: The Road to Downtown Recovery Runs Through Facts, Not Nostalgia
State Street's commercial vacancy rate is lower today than it was before the pandemic. The highest vacancy rates remain on blocks that are open to vehicle traffic.
Nevada takes step toward becoming corporate litigation hub with business court pilot program
The Clark County District Court this week announced it has restructured its departments to include a dedicated business court. The restructuring is expected to bring down case adjudication times, and it could help an ongoing effort to transform Nevada into a premier destination for corporate litigation. Judges Maria Gall and Joe Hardy–Departments 9 and 15, […]
Trump Mobile Takes The T1 Phone Reservation Holders For A Ride, Opens Sales To The Public Without Clearing The Backlog
Those who paid Trump Mobile a $100 deposit to gain early access to the T1 Phone suddenly find themselves at the back of the proverbial queue.
'It's business': 2027 5-star CB on choosing Texas over Texas A&M
2027 5-star CB John Meredith "loves A&M to death" but made a reported business decision in choosing the Texas Longhorns.
Trump Mobile will take your $499 right now
The T1 Phone no longer requires a $100 deposit.
What could be next for Gakpo?
Following the departure of Mohamed Salah, at least one more attacking signing is expected at Anfield this summer. Liverpool have already signed Victor Munoz from Osasuna for £34.5m and the pursuit of Yan Diomande is heating up. Talented teenager Rio Ngumoha is also set to play a more prominent role, while Florian Wirtz played off the left for Liverpool at times last season and is featuring there for Germany in the World Cup.
Senate Indian Affairs Committee Advances Mark Cruz’s Nomination to Lead Indian Health Service
U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Chair of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, led a nomination hearing to consider Mr. Mark Cruz, of Oregon, to be Director of the Indian Health Service within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and expressed her intent to support his nomination. Representative Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a citizen […]
Trump nominates Chris Klomp as HHS second-in-command
President Donald Trump on Thursday named Medicare director and former health care executive Chris Klomp to be deputy secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Baxter Health Heart and Vascular Clinic Welcomes Brandi Watson, APRN
Baxter Health is proud to welcome Brandi Watson, APRN, to the Baxter Health Heart and Vascular Clinic. Watson joined the team on May 15 and is currently accepting new patients. Watson brings more than 25 years of experience caring for some of the most critically ill patients. Much of her career has been spent in intensive care settings, where she learned to make fast, high-stakes decisions for patients whose lives depended on getting the right care at the right moment. That kind of experience, which is gained through years at the bedside, is exactly what heart and vascular patients need from a provider.
UCLA comparative literature department to offer health humanities minor in fall
UCLA will offer a minor in health humanities starting this fall. The minor, housed under the comparative literature department, is an interdisciplinary program that examines how health and medicine are shaped by literature, culture, history and social experience, according to the department’s website.
WATCH: Stephen Miller says 'America's doors are closed fully to asylum seekers' after Supreme Court rulings
The Supreme Court voted 6-3 on Thursday to allow the Trump administration to end legal protections for migrants fleeing violence and natural disaster in Haiti and Syria, exposing hundreds of thousands more people to potential deportation.
Trump nominates new top deputy to RFK Jr.
Chris Klomp, a 45-year-old tech entrepreneur, gained the president's confidence when he negotiated price cuts with drug companies.
College Sports Commission to continue reviewing deals by multimedia rights companies
A judge ruled that multimedia rights companies that represent university athletic departments can continue to be subject to the same rules governing millions in third party name-image-likeness payments to players that are reshaping college sports.
College Sports Commission to continue reviewing deals by multimedia rights companies
A judge ruled that multimedia rights companies that represent university athletic departments can continue to be subject to the same rules governing millions in third party name-image-likeness payments to players that are reshaping college sports.
Neuroimaging utilization in emergency departments has increased year-over-year for a decade
Researchers believe their new data could be used to better inform staffing coverage in modern radiology departments.
Justices Clash on Whether Race Played a Role in Trump’s Bid to Deport Haitians
The split mirrored one that has long divided Americans: how seriously to take the president’s loose, provocative and sometimes ugly remarks.
Supreme Court hands Trump major victories on his immigration agenda
In two ideologically spit rulings that could affect millions, justices say the administration can deport some migrants and turn others away at the border.
Michigan president has strong words for college sports after Dusty May exit
Michigan president Domenico Grasso spoke with Dusty May and said he cited the transfer portal and uncertainty about NIL as reasons for his departure.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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