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'The fate of Earth depends on a delicate balance': Our planet may survive the death of the sun after all, new models hint
When the sun dies, it will become hundreds of times its current size and engulf the innermost planets. Earth may escape this infernal fate, according to state-of-the-art stellar evolution models.
Linux 7.3 To Introduce DRM "Color Format" Property With AMD GPU Driver Support
While the Linux 7.2 kernel merge window is only ending later today to cap off the feature work on this next version of the Linux kernel, already for the Linux 7.3 kernel cycle later in the year there is one notable feature on the way: the DRM color format property is being introduced and being first supported by the AMDGPU kernel graphics driver.
Family visited Water Park Capital of the World; wouldn't do it again
Wisconsin Dells, "Water Park Capital of the World" had many family-friendly activities for our multigenerational travel group, but the cons added up.
New Captain Jack Sparrow Entertainment Coming to 2026 Mickey's Not So Scary Halloween Party
Halfway to the Holidays is over, which can only mean one thing: Halloween is almost here at Walt Disney World!!! Don't roll your eyes or laugh. This isn't a joke. At least, not a funny
Brain activity under anesthesia challenges what we know about consciousness
The unconscious brain appears to be far more capable than scientists once believed. Researchers found that patients under general anesthesia could still process language at a sophisticated level, distinguishing nouns, verbs, and adjectives while listening to stories. Even more remarkably, neural activity showed signs of predicting upcoming words before they were heard. The results challenge traditional ideas about consciousness and hint at new possibilities for brain-computer interfaces.
Retro Recap: All The Classic Gaming News From The Past Week (June 28th 2026)
Sonic pinball! Retroid Pocket Nova! Star Fox 64!
Juventus hold exploratory talks for Soule’s return
Matias Soulé is among the candidates to leave Roma in the coming days and be sacrificed on the altar of capital gains. The Argentine winger isn’t pushing to leave; on the contrary, he’s stalling....
38,599 Shares in Caesars Entertainment, Inc. $CZR Bought by 1492 Capital Management LLC
1492 Capital Management LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:CZR - Free Report) during the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The institutional investor purchased 38,599 shares o
📝 2026 World Cup, overnight round-up
Every morning, OneFootball will bring you a full recap of the night at the World Cup. The can't-miss story of the nightThat's it, the group stage of this World Cup is now officially over, and the hea...
South Korea's 'dismal' World Cup ends in group phase
South Korea's turbulent World Cup ended at the group phase on Saturday and could lead to the international retirement of captain Son Heung-min."Son Heung-min's final World Cup ends in heartbreak," a headline said.
Teenage Engineering adds lo-fi mode, USB audio, and more to its KO II sampler
Another free update for the surprisingly capable sampler.
Google testing iPhone feature to add to Pixel smartphones
Google might soon expand on a current Pixel capability matching the iOS version of it.
Carlisle Cathedral, University of Cumbria secure grant to explore science and faith connections in local farming landscapes - Lutheran Alliance for Faith, Science and Technology
Carlisle Cathedral and the University of Cumbria won a £9,850 grant to explore how science and faith connect in Cumbria's farming landscapes.
Vancouver turns its Science World museum into a giant 17-story soccer ball for the World Cup
It started with a whimsical idea.
WWE Files To Trademark 'Bakusai' - Fightful | WWE News, AEW News, Pro Wrestling Backstage News
On June 26, 2026, WWE filed a new trademark for 'Bakusai.' Fans can click the article to read more about this.
Ranked: America’s Best-Selling Albums Ever
Michael Jackson may be the king of pop, but in the U.S. he's been outsold by a rock band from Los Angeles.
Brewers Continue Testing Jacob Misiorowski's Limits
After touching triple digits with a record-shattering 105.5 mph heater, the Milwaukee Brewers flamethrowing ace escaped a bases-loaded jam to prove his elite resilience and Cy Young caliber endurance.
Engadget review recap: MSI Claw 8 EX AI+, Sony A7R VI, Ray-Ban Meta Optics and more
A roundup of recent reviews published by Engadget.
"Playhouse For Predator": Epstein Used 'Fake' Science Office As Prison Escape
The Florida Science Foundation was presented as a legitimate organisation focused on supporting research. But a review by The Telegraph of more than 1,000 documents connected to the company painted a different picture.
Meet a scientist tracking invasive reptiles, and even their parasites
An insider's look at Florida’s war on invaders: the giant snakes, egg-eating predators and parasites spreading through the Everglades.
Why Kemba Walker is excited about Hornets’ future, 2026 NBA Draft additions
Charlotte’s player enhancement coach spoke to The Charlotte Observer during grand opening of The Kemba Walker Sports Academy in Concord.
From Supergirl to Muse: your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead
Milly Alcock’s Kryptonian hero bops baddies with a superdog in tow, while the Devon band return with another collection of all-caps rock
Muslera blunders, sets unwanted Cup record, and socials pounce
In Guadalajara, Mexico, Spain is leading Uruguay 1-0 this Friday (26), in the third round of the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.La Celeste’s partial defeat, in fact, is securing Cape Verde��...
Screens are virtually inescapable. What are they doing to our health?
They’re in our pockets, workplaces, homes and schools — screens are everywhere. Americans are spending more than seven hours a day looking at screens. What is this doing to our well being? And does all this screen time affect different generations differently? Horizons moderator William Brangham explores what we know and don’t know with researchers Kostadin Kushlev and Courtney K. Blackwell.
CIAA extends commish, teases "playoff" format
The CIAA will keep a familiar face at the top while teasing a new format.
140 Kauai Coffee jobs saved through new land lease agreement
The lease agreement between Kauai Coffee’s parent company, Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group, and landowner Brue Baukol Capital Partners was finalized after nearly two years of negotiations
Local business celebrates 10 year anniversary with $5,000 in cash prizes up for grabs
It is a celebratory feat for any small business to successfully reach 10 years in operation.To mark their 10 year anniversary, Escape It Grandview will be host
A World Cup watch party reconnected me with someone from my past
Jill Tucker taught English in Cape Verde 35 years ago, and was surprised when one of her former students recognized her at a World Cup watch party.
New for MNSSHP 2026: Captain Jack Sparrow Leads Pirate Entertainment in Adventureland
Captain Jack Sparrow joins MNSSHP 2026 in Adventureland with a new pirate entertainment act. The Rusty Cutlass band has not appeared on any confirmed 2026 lineup yet.
How SBT navigated the politics of GRVL
Real community engagement and substantive changes paved the way for SBT GRVL's continued success.
Registration open for 2026 Behavioral Health & Children and Family Services Conference | Health and Human Services North Dakota
Registration is now open for the sixth annual Behavioral Health & Children and Family Services Conference, scheduled for Sept. 14-17 at the Bismarck Event Center and online through a livestream option.The main conference will take place Sept. 15-17, with optional pre- and post-conference sessions offered Sept. 14 and Sept. 17.More than 1,400 in-person attendees and hundreds of virtual participants are expected to take part in keynote presentations, breakout sessions and networking opportunities focused on behavioral health, child welfare, suicide prevention and youth development.
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
Article Summary Prediction market Kalshi sued Illinois on Tuesday, seeking to block new taxes and license requirements set to take
Coalition of Asian Pacifics in Entertainment Announces New Cohort
The Coalition of Asian Pacifics in Entertainment (CAPE) has announced their Emerging Executives Committee for 2026.
Civility advocates look for ways to restore 'Iowa Nice' to campaigns, public discourse
A group of former and current officeholders are looking to encourage civility by encouraging civic participation and civil interactions.
DAVID MARCUS: In rural Maryland, petty politics takes back seat to World Cup fever
The World Cup and America 250 celebrations unite Americans beyond politics, as the Save America Act and Trump debates fade in small-town gatherings.
Some In Silicon Valley Want To Build A Machine God: Here's What Business Leaders Should Build Instead.
What young people need to become capable, grounded adults is not a faster model release.
Master Inventor Hoffman Turns Chemistry Into Capability | Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
Christopher Hoffman has been recognized as a Johns Hopkins APL Master Inventor, a distinction earned through a career spent asking a simple question: What can chemistry can do to solve a real-world problem?
HYPE: Joe Horn to enter Louisiana Sports Hall of Fame
New Orleans Saints legend Joe Horn will be inducted into the Louisiana Sports Hall of Fame as part of the 2026 class! Horn caught 523 passes for 7,622 yards and 50 touchdowns in 102 games for the Saints from 2000-06.
Dragon's Dogma 2: Dark Arisen: What We Learned In Capcom's Showcase
Kento Kinoshita, Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen's original director, is returning for Dragon's Dogma 2: Dark Arisen
Morning Break: Joe Horn set for Louisiana Sports Hall of Fame induction, Bryce Lance turning heads
A collection of headlines and news about the Saints and the NFL for Friday, June 26
NASA’s PACE Mission Studies Smoke, Fires
With the North American fire season underway, and a record number of acres already burned nationwide, NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, and ocean Ecosystem
Cutting costs to move forward: SoFi State of Small business 2026 survey
SoFi reports 86% of small business owners see growth or stability, yet 66% cite high costs, mainly inflation and interest rates, as major challenges.
Cutting costs to move forward: SoFi State of Small business 2026 survey
SoFi reports 86% of small business owners see growth or stability, yet 66% cite high costs, mainly inflation and interest rates, as major challenges.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
Cascades doubles down on business case for sustainability
The fiber specialist laid its path forward in a 2026-2030 sustainability plan. It’s emphasizing supplier vetting and its capacity to assist customers with their sustainability goals as it continues to strive for widely recyclable packaging.
NC Democrats demand lower utility costs + budget talks drag on as deadline nears
Read our Under the Dome newsletter and listen to our Under the Dome podcast to stay up to date on #ncpol.
Memorial Health Championship in full swing in Springfield
Organizers are also offering additional attractions beyond golf, including food trucks, the Scheels Fan Zone and Family Fun Day on Saturday, which features a superhero theme for children and families.
Big Ten women’s sports are having a moment. What is the league doing to capitalize?
In the two years since Caitlin Clark left for the WNBA, the Big Ten has worked to keep its momentum.
How Outward Intelligence founders bootstrapped to seven-figure revenue
Three friends with résumés spanning Google, Palantir, and Harris Poll skipped venture capital and bootstrapped their startup instead.
Gay Street businesses cope with Capital Line construction
The Capital Line is meant to be transformative for Downtown. But right now it's presenting challenges for businesses.
Bank of America community roundtable highlights sales tax increase, small business struggles
Business and government leaders also discussed hiring trends and the importance of the Charlotte Douglas International Airport.
The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics
Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.
Cabo Verde Is a Breakout Star of the World Cup. So Is the Family-Owned Business That Designed Its Jerseys
After more than three decades manufacturing apparel, Capelli Sport co-founder and CEO George Altirs found his company’s biggest billboard yet—3,500 miles away from his midtown Manhattan office.
Online retailer John's Crazy Socks relocates to Huntington in effort to turn around business
The company's core mission is to create employment opportunities for people who face barriers to work because of disabilities.
Ohio Black-owned businesses, payroll has increased, bringing bigger share of economy to group
According to analysis of national census data, black-owned businesses in Ohio continue to increase payroll, and drive jobs and income in the state.
Hall of Fame GM Expresses Concerns About Extending Vita Vea
As a lucrative "hold-in" intensifies, Bill Polian warns that committing massive capital to an aging nose tackle could backfire for a Tampa Bay roster already in transition.
What we learned as Bryce Harper caps Phillies' shocking comeback trilogy
The Phillies erased another five-run deficit, rallied late again and reached the season’s halfway point with another reminder of how much has changed.
Mental health as both outcome and determinant in climate adaptation
Nature Climate Change - Mental health should not be viewed solely as a passive outcome of climate adaptation. Rather, it serves as a key determinant of cognitive capacity and shapes the...
21ALIVE SPORTS DIGITAL EXCLUSIVE: Loyer to the Clippers, TinCaps find second half success
21Alive Sports Director Andy Newman and Weekend Sports Anchor Nia Hinson catch you up on this week’s sports news.
Tennessee court temporarily blocks state health officials from sharing undocumented ill children’s information
The “state cannot go forward with the policy” until the judge makes a final decision, said the head of the Tennessee Justice Center.
Project manager says America’s Time Capsule is a ‘gift to the future’
The vessel will move from Washington to Philadelphia starting Friday.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Transcription by Ben Lerner wins Orwell prize for political fiction
Judging chair calls Lerner’s novel a ‘funny, brainy and timely’ study of our appetite for technology, while Karen Bartlett wins the nonfiction prize for The Escape from Kabul
Trump’s fixation on election overhaul bill derails GOP agenda on Capitol Hill
A nasty feud over President Donald Trump’s elections overhaul push has further crippled an already-dysfunctional Congress, leaving Republicans unable to move on critical elements of their agenda.
Lizzy Caplan, John Stamos Movie 'Drag' Gets Winter 2027 Release
Briarcliff Entertainment has dated the Danny DeVito produced 'Drag' starring Lizzy Caplan, Lucy DeVito and John Stamos for Jan. 29, 2027.
Adidas’ NIL pipeline is producing NBA rookies who already know the business
Mikel Brown Jr. reached the NBA with a head start few rookies have. Long before being selected sixth overall by the Brooklyn Nets at Tuesday’s NBA Draft, the 20-year-old guard had been embedded in Adidas’ ecosystem through a name, image and likeness deal that began in high school. “By the time our athletes walk across […]
Trump Keeps Undercutting Republicans’ Message, Squandering His Own Trifecta
Divisions between the president and his party on Capitol Hill have muddled Republicans’ midterm pitch to voters, and have crippled the G.O.P. at what should be the peak of its power.
Honoring the best in small business
Fifth Street Renaissance, Resource One, Cured Catering, and ChangeBridge Consulting are all honored.
Kurt Zellers departs as Minnesota Business Partnership CEO in latest business lobby shuffle
A sudden departure of Kurt Zellers at the Minnesota Business Partnership is just one of the changes ahead for business advocacy groups in the state.
JD Sports Upgrades Listing to Broaden U.S. Investor Access
Shares of JD Sports in the U.S. now trade on the OTCQX exchange from the Pink Limited Market, broadening its access to deeper capital pools.
Two NC lawmakers, a Democrat and a Republican, push Congress to delay SNAP changes
Above the federal penalty threshold, NC could owe $140M a year, putting at risk a program that helps over 1.2 million North Carolinians.
Game On Retro owner plans entertainment empire expansion, Coram movie theater transformation
Plans include opening a new arcade, store and transforming a shuttered movie theater in Coram.
Tech: House Science advances AI bills
The House Science Committee advanced a bipartisan bill that would codify increasingly prominent artificial intelligence oversight work being done by the Commerce Department.
Ranking Big 12 recruiting classes via average commit distance
The Big 12 recruiting landscape continues to change as programs continue to shuffle throughout the conference. Texas Tech is pushing to sign the nation’s No. 1 class in the 2027 cycle and it firmly sits atop the league’s recruiting rankings. The Red Raiders are the only Big 12 team with a top-25 haul, per the […]
Major part of student-loan repayment overhaul is blocked in court
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How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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