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These fat-filled brain cells may be making multiple sclerosis worse
Scientists have uncovered a surprising clue that may help explain why multiple sclerosis (MS) progresses rapidly in some people but not others. In brain tissue from patients with severe MS, researchers found large numbers of “foamy” immune cells packed with fat droplets after absorbing damaged myelin. These overloaded cells appear to switch from helping repair the brain to fueling ongoing damage and inflammation.
Wife and 2 children of Argentine soccer star discovered dead after earthquakes in Venezuela
Argentine soccer star Lucas Trejo lost his wife, Yanina Maranella, and their two children, Aarón and Ainhoa, in the powerful pair of earthquakes that ravaged Venezuela on June 24.
Bickley: It's hard to root for Suns, Miles Bridges pairing
You knew Suns owner Mat Ishbia would make a move this offseason, but trading for Miles Bridges could risk toppling the franchise's new identity.
Scientists Discover Ultrasound May Stop Arthritis Before It Starts
A new study suggests low-intensity ultrasound can influence immune cell behavior in ways that may reduce chronic inflammation and encourage tissue repair after joint injury.
Europe’s Heat Politics
As the continent swelters, some right-wing populists are talking up their support for air-conditioning.
NBC Announces Plans For Special 'Star-Spangled Sunday'
NBC is having a special "Star-Spangled Sunday" broadcast next weekend. Next Sunday is July 5, 2026. It's a very special Fourth of July weekend this year. It's America's 250th birthday. NBC and Peacock will be airing all 15 MLB games on Sunday, July 5. Two games - Mets-Braves and Padres-Dodgers - ...
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
American Airlines flight aborts takeoff at MIA after business jet enters runway
An American Airlines flight to Bermuda aborted its takeoff after a business jet entered the same runway at Miami International Airport on Saturday evening.
RF Hacking A Ceiling Fan Via The Remote
[Sam Wilkinson] recently installed a Dreo CLF513S ceiling fan in his place — it’s cheap, well-sized, and blows air around as you’d expect it to. The only problem is that it only w…
Trump’s Great American State Fair attendees say they haven’t noticed politics overshadowing the celebration
The gloomy, overcast weather on Saturday didn’t disturb visitors who attended the first weekend of President Donald Trump’s Great American State Fair, an event commemorating America’s 250th anniversar...
Trump’s Great American State Fair attendees say they haven’t noticed politics overshadowing the celebration
President Donald Trump kicked off the event with a headlining speech Wednesday after musical acts dropped out of the lineup citing concerns over partisanship.
Rep. Ryan rejects rolling back of PFAS cleanup at Stewart air base
Pat Ryan, a Democrat who represents New York’s 18th Congressional District, says the Department of Defense is looking to reduce statutory reporting requirements for PFAS at military installations.
‘Inner party turf wars’ hang over annual Florida Republican convention
Byron Donalds and state party chair Evan Power also detailed how they plan to frame Florida’s moderate Democratic candidates as progressives.
Healthcare groups clash over proposed California billionaire tax
California voters in November are set to decide if the state's billionaires should face a new tax on their assets in order to fund healthcare programs.
Healthcare groups clash over proposed California billionaire tax
California voters in November are set to decide if the state's billionaires should face a new tax on their assets in order to fund healthcare programs.
England players use new sports drink to help beat extreme heat at World Cup
The Football Association placed a large order for a sports drink produced by a company owned by the double Olympic triathlon champion Alistair Brownlee which helps to control body temperature
California Politics 360 full episode | What to expect on California's November ballot
KCRA 3 Political Director Ashley Zavala leads conversations on California's November ballot questions, including the proposed billionaire tax.
Democrats Wrestle With Race, Populism and Ideology in Clashes With Lawmakers of Color
WASHINGTON (AP) — After democratic socialist Claire Valdez defeated an establishment-backed candidate in New York's congressional primary last week, her elated supporters quickly turned their attention to a new target. “You're next!” they chanted when an image of House Democratic leader Hakeem ...
Why are airplanes so cold? It’s for your health.
From combating fainting to helping aircraft work efficiently, planes are chilly for a reason.
6 Ways Your Body Can Change After Starting a High-Protein Diet
Adding more protein to your diet can cause several changes in your body, such as better muscle repair and potential digestive issues.
International Business Machines (IBM) Is A Top Stock In Billionaire Richard Chilton’s Filings
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) is one of the 10 Best Stocks to Buy According to Billionaire Richard Chilton. Technology giant International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) made a key announcement recently when it announced its 0.7-nanometer chip manufacturing technology. This technology is the most advanced chip manufacturing technology in the world. International Business Machines Corporation […]
Again, Trump said nobody left his speech. Again, that wasn’t true
President Donald Trump posted on social media on Thursday about the speech he gave the day prior to kick off the Great American State Fair in Washington, DC: “Everybody stayed right until the end of my Speech because they loved hearing about a truly successful America.”
Airlines Are Installing New Luxury Seats, but No One Is Allowed to Sit in Them
Lie-flat seats in private pods face long waits for safety certifications, delaying debuts for carriers’ high-end offerings.
Four things to know from Neshoba County Fair political speaking
Here are some of the highlights from the political speeches at the Neshoba County Fair and developments Mississippians can expect in the coming months.
Business People
Northwest Arkansas-based CS Bank has recognized its Chairman of the Board, John Fuller Cross, for reaching 70 years in the banking industry.
Business People
Northwest Arkansas-based CS Bank has recognized its Chairman of the Board, John Fuller Cross, for reaching 70 years in the banking industry.
Business People
Northwest Arkansas-based CS Bank has recognized its Chairman of the Board, John Fuller Cross, for reaching 70 years in the banking industry.
Bernstein Says Life Science Sector is Improving, Resumes Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) Coverage
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) is included among Billionaire Steven Cohen’s Top 11 Dividend Stock Picks. On June 26, Bernstein resumed coverage of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) with a Market Perform rating. It also set a $520 price target after the analyst returned from maternity leave. In a research note, the firm said “Many […]
American Airlines flight aborts takeoff in Miami after business jet enters the same runway
An American Airlines flight headed to Bermuda aborted its takeoff in Miami Saturday evening after a business jet entered the same runway, getting as close as a third of a mile apart at one point.
American Airlines flight aborts takeoff in Miami after business jet enters the same runway
An American Airlines flight headed to Bermuda aborted its takeoff in Miami Saturday evening after a business jet entered the same runway, getting as close as a third of a mile apart at one point.
PHOTOS | Multitude enjoy aerial entertainment at resurgent Texarkana Airshow
Sgt. 1st Class Benjamin Hall, assistant team leader, watches the ground to help the Golden Knights line up with their jump mark at the Texarkana Airshow on Saturday at Texarkana Regional Airport. Throngs of people lined a taxiway at the airport to watch the Army parachute team and other aerial entertainment. It was the first airshow in the city in nearly 30 years. See Monday's edition for extended coverage.
Black Hills Renaissance Fair draws crowds for weekend of medieval entertainment
The kickoff of the Renaissance Festival started on Saturday
Back in business: Blue and White Snack Bar owners vow to uphold tradition of Hollidaysburg mainstay
HOLLIDAYSBURG — A local Hollidaysburg landmark is back as Blue and White Snack Bar, 905 Union St., reopened for business May 12. “The Blue and White is a landmark in Hollidaysburg and really all of Blair County. To say that people are excited to see it open again is an understatement,” Mayor Chad Repko said. […]
Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed impresses in Air‑It‑Out exhibition
Marcel Reed delivered one of the top highlights at the Manning Passing Academy, dropping a perfect deep ball during the Air‑It‑Out exhibition.
MacBook Retail Sales Challenged By Apple Silicon Legacy
The extended lifespan of first-generation M1 MacBooks is impacting retail sales of the newer AI-focused MacBook Air and MacBook Pro laptops.
See the fun at the 2026 Boone County Fair
See Kentucky residents embrace the rainy weather at the 2026 Boone County Fair. The fair also included a monster truck show.
Comer rejects calls for White House officials' Epstein testimony
Comer chairs the committee, which has been reviewing the federal government’s Epstein investigation.
Comer rejects calls for White House officials' Epstein testimony
Comer chairs the committee, which has been reviewing the federal government’s Epstein investigation.
Starz Entertainment (STRZ) Stock Sees Fair Value Lift After Q1 Analyst Target Increases
Price targets for Starz Entertainment have shifted as the analyst fair value estimate moved from US$19.38 to US$28.50, putting a higher reference point in focus for investors tracking the stock. Recent Street research has turned more constructive after the Q1 report, with several firms lifting price targets and updating models to reflect how they now view execution risks and valuation support. In the sections that follow, you will see how to interpret these changing targets and what they...
Senators, Pennsylvania businesses to represent Commonwealth at Great American State Fair
WASHINGTON, D.C. (WHTM) — Pennsylvania will be represented at the Great American State Fair after all. The Commonwealth’s delegation to the U.S. Senate announced a planned “strong…
You’ve never seen this before: the shocking moment the sound barrier breaks - Futura-Sciences
The XB-1 is a critical stepping stone toward commercial supersonic travel, representing the first civil designed aircraft to break the sound barrier since the Concorde retired. To verify the aircraft’s aerodynamic performance during its supersonic transition, NASA deployed an advanced optical technology called schlieren imaging to make the invisible forces...
An au pair made my family obsessed with Argentina's World Cup run
What started as childcare turned into a friendship, a World Cup obsession, and a connection that spans two continents.
Dean Cain discusses stark contrast in patriotism among political parties
Actor Dean Cain joins 'Fox News Live' from the Great American State Fair in Washington, D.C., to share his take on patriotism and a tense border hearing with DHS Secretary Mullin.
Venezuela Quakes Push Fragile Health System to the Brink
Earthquake victims are overwhelming healthcare centers in Venezuela’s coastal state of La Guaira and beyond, pushing an already fragile health system past its limits.
How to Watch the World Cup Today: Schedule, Times, TV, Streaming for Argentina, England, Portugal, More
Argentina, England, Portugal and more close out group stage play today at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. All 6 matches air on FOX and FS1.
This might be the new best smart speaker
In this week’s Installer: Gemini, Star Fox, and The Last Airbender.
How the dairy industry pushed Trump for migrant labor, and won
President Donald Trump was expected to announce the expansion of a guest-worker program to the dairy industry at a Wisconsin event. Instead, the news came out in a press release, angering immigration hard-liners.
Just 2 Hours of Strength Training May Lower Heart Disease Risk in Women
Researchers say that just 2 hours of weekly strength training may help lower the risk of cardiovascular disease in women, especially when paired with 150 minutes of weekly aerobic exercise.
LVMH and Accor's Orient Express sets its sights on new tech billionaire class
Shuttling across the French and Italian Riviera, Orient Express's first giant yacht aims to attract a new class of billionaire.
Applications open for Hawaii County Kona low business recovery program
Eligible businesses can use the money for recovery needs, including equipment repair, temporary relocation costs and water damage.
Applications open for Hawaii County Kona low business recovery program
The reward from the county can be used for recovery needs, including equipment repair, temporary relocation costs and water damage.
California is in for a summer of wild billionaire spending
OPINION: With competing tax measures on the ballot, California billionaires will be spending like... billionaires, political columnist Joe Garofoli writes.
National Science Foundation finds no violations in Texas A&M research security contract
U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar, a Michigan Republican who chairs the House of Representatives' select committee on China, had urged the NSF to pause funding for a project known as SECURE.
Nia Long explains why she turned down Prince's advances
The "Michael" actress said that she later met Prince a second time: "He was lovely, but we talked about my hair the whole time."
Gun access changes in Florida; DeSantis vetoes bills
Political Connections airs each weeknight at 7 p.m. on Spectrum News.
Peters, Bergman lead Michigan delegation in calling on Small Business Administration to approve disaster declaration
WASHINGTON, DC — U.S. Senator Gary Peters (D-MI), Ranking Member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, led members of the Michigan Congressional Delegation in urging the Small Business Administration (SBA) to support Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s request for an administrative disaster declaration following the severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, large hail and torrential […]
Testing gives science-based data for Fairmont lakes
FAIRMONT— A partnership between the city of Fairmont and Minnesota State University-Mankato will result in comprehensive scientific data on the Fairmont Chain of Lakes. The $25,000 contract started on April 1 and will go through Dec. 31 of this year. Fairmont’s Water Resources Coordinator, Hannah Neusch, acknowledged that while the water treatment plant in Fairmont […]
ACES hosts event looking at health impacts of climate change
Dr. Mark Gladwin, the dean of University of Maryland School of Medicine and the vice president of Medical Affairs, is slated to speak with Aspen Center for Environmental Studies from 6 to 7 p.m. July 2 on the worsening health impacts in the face of human-driven climate change.
Burglars steal from Grand Forks business, cancer fundraiser
The owner of An Elegant Affair says burglars stole merchandise, cash and donations collected for an employee battling cancer.
‘A total fairytale’: Former Watergate prosecutor reacts to Vance’s comments on the scandal
Politics Unusual: Co-chairs of NYC-DSA, Rep. Malliotakis
In this episode of Politics Unusual, FOX 5 NY's political reporter Morgan McKay sits down with the co-chairs of New York City's Democratic Socialists of America to discuss their success on primary night. Also, a conversation with Rep. Nicole Malliotakis about the rise of democratic socialism and the direction the Democratic Party could take in the coming years.
Confederate flag displayed at N.C. exhibit at America's State Fair
A flag featured in the North Carolina exhibit at America’s State Fair on Washington’s National Mall is drawing some unwanted attention.
Apple Loop: iPhone 18 Pro Release Date, Hidden iOS 27 Features, iPhone Air 2 Details
This week’s Apple headlines: iPhone 18 Pro price and release date, hidden iOS 27 features, iPhone Air 2 specs, unexpected Mac and iPad price rises, how Apple wins AI and more...
What if the economy gets better and it doesn’t help the GOP?: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Gavin Newsom’s next move in the billionaire tax fight.
His Fortune’s From the Trash Business. His Basquiats Are Priceless.
In the last few years, waste-management billionaire Patrick Dovigi has become one of the biggest art collectors on the scene. But he’s still under the radar—maybe the shots fired on his home have something to do with that.
Rep. Stansbury: Billionaire Leon Black walked out in the middle of Epstein interview
MacBook Ultra and new MacBook Pro both launching this fall, per rumors
Apple’s high-end MacBook plans are coming into focus after recent Bloomberg reports, including MacBook Ultra and a new M6 MacBook Pro.
Newsom urges a national 'billionaires' tax' while fighting one in California
The governor announced his agenda a day after an influential health care union in California pledged to go forward with a ballot measure that would impose a one-time 5% tax on the assets of billionaires living in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026. Newsom opposes that measure.
Congress subpoenas Leon Black during interview about Jeffrey Epstein
The House Oversight Committee issued subpoenas to billionaire Leon Black after he declined to answer questions about non-disclosure agreements.
Air-conditioning becomes political amid sweltering Europe heatwave
Much of western Europe baked under a “heat dome” as temperatures soar. Authorities warn that the extreme conditions could endanger lives across countries, many of which have limited air conditioning, a topic of which has left the people of Paris divided.
AI Is Already Reshaping US Politics at Every Level
From data center backlash to boundless cash from tech billionaires and concerns about deepfaked campaign ads, AI is everywhere in the 2026 US elections.
CT Summer Fair brings live entertainment, carnival rides, and more. ‘30,000 expected to celebrate
Suffield’s 6th Annual Summer Fair is running through Saturday, June 27, according to a statement.
Newsom urges a national 'billionaires' tax' while fighting one in California
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is calling for a national “billionaires' tax” and suggests the U.S. government should own a stake in AI companies.
Gavin Newsom opposes a California wealth tax. He’s proposing a national billionaire tax instead
California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday proposed a national tax on billionaires that he says is the first part of an “economic reset for America” agenda, which aides explicitly say is part of his considering to launch a presidential campaign.
Warren Buffett Bought A Business For $1.7B ‘Over The Phone Without Ever Meeting The People There’ Using The ‘Most Valuable Skill’ He Learned
Buying a company for $1.7 billion without meeting management sounds like the kind of decision that would keep lawyers busy for months. Warren Buffett did it over the phone. Speaking at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 2003, Berkshire Hathaway Chair...
North Dakota State Fair 2026: Food, Entertainment, Pride of Dakota Festival, Contests, and More
MINOT, ND (KXNET) — There are now three weeks until this year’s North Dakota State Fair kicks off, and the Fair is including America’s 250th birthday. The fair is an official partner of…
Chairman Guthrie, Health Vice Chair Harshbarger, Congresswoman Miller-Meeks Lead Site Visit to Iowa Hospitals to Highlight Benefits of the Rural Health Transformation Program
The Committee on Energy and Commerce is the oldest standing legislative committee in the U.S. House of Representatives and is vested with the broadest jurisdiction of any congressional authorizing committee.
ISS repair spacewalk highlights concerns about station health
NASA astronauts on the space station are preparing for a spacewalk to repair a robotic arm as safety advisers raise concerns about its long-term health.
Elroy Air to Become Publicly Traded Company via Business Combination with Inflection Point-led SPAC
Elroy Air, Inc., a leading U.S.-based technology developer of autonomous heavy-cargo drones for defense, rapid response and commercial logistics, and Columbu...
Bank of America community roundtable highlights sales tax increase, small business struggles
Business and government leaders also discussed hiring trends and the importance of the Charlotte Douglas International Airport.
Fitbit Air's first update is already rolling out, and it could finally fix its biggest annoyance
Google has started rolling out the Fitbit Air's first firmware update since launch. This update promises bug fixes and improvements.
TravelTech Show, Business Travel Show Europe name 2026 innovation award winners
Arcube, ImpersonAlly, Acai and Nowadays were recognized in separate competitions for travel technology innovations spanning airline retailing, brand protection, contact center automation and meetings management.
Senate Indian Affairs Committee Advances Mark Cruz’s Nomination to Lead Indian Health Service
U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Chair of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, led a nomination hearing to consider Mr. Mark Cruz, of Oregon, to be Director of the Indian Health Service within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and expressed her intent to support his nomination. Representative Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a citizen […]
California unions, hospitals strike deal — but billionaire tax heads to ballot
Two healthcare ballot measures are gone. One very contentious wealth tax isn't.
Billionaire tax, affordable housing: See the measures on California's November ballot
California voters will decide on 14 statewide policy proposals come November, from the controversial billionaire tax to an $11 billion affordable housing bond.
California’s Billionaire Tax Kicks Off a Democratic Civil War
The divisive proposal heads to the ballot after attempts to reach a compromise deal failed.
Controversial billionaire tax will appear on November ballot
Proponents of a controversial billionaire tax pledge to making sure it appears on the November ballot to backfill federal healthcare funds.
New district leaders could take over Brooklyn Democratic Party
The current chair said she believes in "moving forward."
M6 MacBook Pro Expected This Year With Apple's First 2nm Chip
Apple could launch an updated base model 14-inch MacBook Pro with an M6 chip as soon as this year, reports Bloomberg. There could also be M6 chip updates for the Mac mini, iMac, and MacBook Air, but Apple is testing an M6 MacBook Pro. Apple plans to introduce the M6 in late 2026, and for the first time, it will be a standalone chip. Apple is not working on M6 Pro or M6 Max chips, and will hold off on higher-end chip options until the M7 series launches in 2027.
Octavia Spencer's Orit Entertainment Names New Heads Of Film & TV
Octavia Spencer's Orit Entertainment has made two key executive hires, naming Kathryn Tyus-Adair as Head of Film and Adam Wagner as Head of Television
Octavia Spencer’s Orit Entertainment Names Kathryn Tyus-Adair Head Of Film & Adam Wagner Head Of Television
EXCLUSIVE: Octavia Spencer’s Orit Entertainment has made two key executive hires, naming Kathryn Tyus-Adair as Head of Film and Adam Wagner as Head of Television. “Kathryn and Adam are exceptional exe...
WATCH: House Democratic leaders hold hearing on fair elections and voting rights
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democratic lawmakers held a hearing Thursday on defending fair elections and voting rights.
Valve Quietly Walks Back Steam Machine 4K 60 FPS Performance Claims
Valve's Steam Machine has earned more than its fair share of skeptics, thanks to performance claims and more recently its unfortunate pricing. More recently, though, Valve has seemingly taken some of this criticism to heart and silently changed some of those performance claims on the Steam Machine p...
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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