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Lung tumor signals may tamp down food intake
Researchers found that a high-fat diet in mice amplifies nerve signals between certain lung cancers and the brain, leading to reduced appetite and weight loss.
Black business owners in Greater Cleveland want access to capital
Funding remains the biggest barrier for Greater Cleveland Black businesses, the Presidents Council, the local Black chamber of commerce, says
Giants Willing to Move Ramos as Trade Interest Builds
The San Francisco Giants clarify their deadline strategy, signaling outfielder Heliot Ramos is available for trade.
Strategy buys preferred stock in past week instead of bitcoin, hit to business model signaled
Strategy (MSTR) was trading higher as the bitcoin treasury company announced a repurchase of its preferred stock instead of buying bitcoin in the past week.
AI mental health chatbots feel empathetic, but safety evidence still lags
Immune dysregulation may contribute to depression, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and anxiety through chronic inflammation, altered neuroimmune signaling, genetic susceptibility, and stress-related epigenetic changes. Evidence also suggests that biologically defined patient subgroups may benefit from more precise, immune-informed approaches to diagnosis and treatment.
An Admiral’s Rise Reveals the Politics Driving Hegseth’s Pentagon
Before he was picked to lead the Navy, Adm. Daryl Caudle found ways to signal his support for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s anti-diversity goals.
Jets signaled true intentions with Connor Hellebuyck amid trade rumors
Winnipeg still has the star goalie's situation to figure out.
3 in 5 overestimate how much gas prices have risen: Survey
As ongoing fighting in the Middle East continues to influence prices at the pump, a new survey signals many Americans overestimate gas price increases. The Politico poll, released on Friday, found …
Has Oscar Health (OSCR) Run Too Far After Its 68% 90 Day Rally?
Oscar Health (OSCR) has been drawing attention after a strong share price run, with investors weighing that performance against mixed valuation signals that suggest the stock is not an obvious bargain. See our latest analysis for Oscar Health. Recent trading has cooled slightly, with the share price down around 3% over the past month and 7 days. That comes after a strong 90 day share price return of about 68% and a very large 3 year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum has been...
Valladares joins bipartisan coalition aiming to protect entertainment industry jobs
News release State Sen. Suzette Martinez Valladares, R-Acton, joined 38 of her legislative colleagues in sending a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom, Senate President Pro Tempore Monique Limón, and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, urging them to protect […]
DNC committee sets up South Carolina to vote first in Democrats’ 2028 presidential primaries
Key Democrats had pushed for the state as a signal of Black voters’ importance, especially after the Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act.
Senate Democrats reject Trump-approved ethics provision in landmark crypto bill
Senate Democrats signaled they would not support a revised version of Republicans’ landmark cryptocurrency regulation bill, saying a new ethics provision approved by President Donald Trump does not go far enough to limit the president’s ability to profit off crypto.
Analyst Says Trevor Lawrence is an Underrated QB in 2026
Fresh off a dominant 13-4 run, Jacksonville’s signal-caller enters year two of Liam Coen’s system poised to silence critics and finally solidify his status among the elite.
Letter from Argentina: 'an empty desk and an idle electron microscope signal the erosion of the country's science'
Faramarz S Gard laments the decline of Argentine science
OpenAI Presence is about to take another leap into corporate software
OpenAI's new Presence product signals its push beyond AI models into business software and AI-powered work.
With His Latest Threats, Trump Signals to Iran That He Is Willing to Escalate
President Trump is facing a critical moment in the war, which has failed to bring about the “unconditional surrender” he once demanded.
Amazon's Leo satellite venture names first finance VP
Amazon's Leo satellite business names Mike Recupero as its first VP of finance, signaling its growth as an independent entity.
FDA’s Review Of Peptides Signals A Growing Public Health Challenge— Separating Science From Hype
A FDA advisory committee will review evidence surrounding peptides. Experts are concerned there is a paucity of evidence to back their approval for legal compounding.
Highland Square business district owners to pay for extra security, beautification projects
With a majority of property owners on board, Akron City Council passed legislation that pushes the Special Improvement District forward.
iPhone 18 Pro Release Date: Apple’s 15-Year Event Timeline Signals Exact Date
As rumors build, analysis of every fall iPhone release indicates one date above other possibilities.
OMB Publishes 2026 Unified Agenda Signaling Upcoming Health Privacy and Interoperability Updates from HHS
The Office of Management and Budget (“OMB”) has released its 2026 Unified Agenda, which identifies regulatory actions that federal agencies expect to
D&B Helps Companies Act Earlier on Business Signals
Commercial credit decisions have long moved at the speed of the analyst: a new scorecard takes weeks to design, months to validate and another cycle to
Phoenix Suns' Devin Booker Receives Hefty Praise From New Teammate
Rookie Koa Peat reveals his commitment to supporting Devin Booker’s legendary playstyle, signaling a unified locker room as the face of the franchise reshapes Phoenix’s culture.
Politics Unplugged (Full Episode) July 19, 2026
On this episode of Politics Unplugged, political editor Dennis Welch sits down with Joana Mendoza — a former Marine Corps drill instructor and Democratic candidate — who is challenging incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's Congressional District 6, discussing affordability, immigration, and ICE reform. Then, with Arizona's primary election just days away, Welch brings in Republican consultant Chip Scutari and Democrat Stacy Pearson to break down the most competitive races, including the GOP governor's primary between Andy Biggs and David Schweikert, the attorney general's race, and a crowded CD1 field. The panel also weighs in on what the early ballot returns and independent voter enthusiasm could signal heading into the general election this fall.
iPhone 18 Pro Release Date: Apple’s 15-Year Event Timeline Signals Exact Date
As rumors build, analysis of every fall iPhone release indicates one date above other possibilities.
The market for psychedelic drugs to treat mental health conditions gets a big buy signal
Eli Lilly's acquisition of psychedelic drug maker AtaiBeckley extends Big Pharma's embrace of a stigmatized class of medications for treating mental health.
A tiny universe in a bottle reveals clues to the origins of life
Researchers have created cosmic dust from scratch by recreating space-like conditions inside glass tubes. The dust contains complex carbon-rich molecules built from elements essential to life and produces infrared signals similar to real material found in space. By studying these laboratory samples, scientists can explore how organic chemistry unfolds around stars and how comets, asteroids and meteorites may have carried those ingredients to Earth.
Yankees' Latest Trade Report Sends Obvious Anthony Volpe Signal
The New York Yankees may be looking to move on from Anthony Volpe.
Steam Machine Engineers at Valve Signal Grim Future as Memory Crisis Is 'Still Getting Worse'
Steam Machine engineers at Valve have warned the ongoing memory crisis in tech is "still getting worse" as buyers face already exorbitant prices.
iPhone 18 Pro Release Date: Apple’s 15-Year Event Timeline Signals Exact Date
As rumors build, analysis of every fall iPhone release indicates one date above other possibilities.
We treat steady eye contact as proof of honesty, but the science is messier: it can signal dominance as much as sincerity, and liars often hold your gaze more, not less
Ask almost anyone how to spot a liar and you will get a version of the same answer. Watch the eyes. A dishonest person cannot hold your gaze. The idea is
4 upcoming trips to the moon and how CU Boulder scientists are involved
Researchers will explore everything from volcanoes on the moon’s surface to signals washing through our galaxy from the dawn of the universe.
Winner of Chen Institute and Science Prize Uses AI to Rebuild Speech from Brain Signals | American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Sergey Stavisky's prize-winning research gave voice to a man living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.
PENN Entertainment (NASDAQ:PENN) Shows Strong Breakout Setup with High Technical Strength
PENN ENTERTAINMENT stock shows a strong uptrend with a 7/10 Technical Rating and a high 9/10 Setup Rating, signaling a tight consolidation pattern near resistance for a potential breakout entry.
A $399 Smart Ring Aims to Replace the 150-Year-Old Blood Pressure Cuff
A three-year-old startup says it has produced a smart ring that can track blood pressure as accurately as a traditional arm cuff and that — eventually — it could be able to make medical diagnoses. If the company, called Vital Signals, can successfully deliver on the promise, it would represent a significant breakthrough in consumer wearables.
UT Health San Antonio study links sleeping long hours with higher levels of an Alzheimer’s-related protein
Findings could signal early neurodegenerative processes at work Contact: Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu SAN ANTONIO, July 16, 2026 – Regularly sleeping long hours each night is associated with higher levels of an Alzheimer’s-related protein in the blood, even accounting for other health factors, suggests a new study from UT Health San Antonio, the academic […]
CMS signals intent to revamp how it pays for clinical software and AI
CMS wants to build a standardized payment structure for clinical software and AI that factors in their impact on patient outcomes.
How business ownership is once again becoming a family affair
The growing share of businesses being inherited rather than purchased among wealthy Americans reflects the broader great wealth transfer and signals a shift in how wealth and business ownership are changing across generations, Fortune reports. According to Bank of America’s 2026 Private Bank Study of Wealthy Americans, 23% of businesses owned by wealthy individuals are […]
House passes Daylight Saving Time reform as Trump signals support for ending clock change
The Sunshine Protection Act passed the House with bipartisan support, but Senate skepticism and debates over circadian rhythm and road safety loom ahead.
Vieu launches AI-ready map of business relationships, challenging sales-tech incumbents
Vieu, a Seattle startup founded by former Microsoft leaders, launched its "Business Graph" — a live map of business relationships built from observed signals like shared work history and board affiliations, rather than the self-reported connections on LinkedIn.
Vieu launches AI-ready map of business relationships, challenging tech incumbents
Vieu, a Seattle startup founded by former Microsoft leaders, launched its "Business Graph" — a live map of business relationships built from observed signals like shared work history and board affiliations, rather than the self-reported connections on LinkedIn.
Flutter Entertainment shares rise as investors appear to lean into bullish positioning
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) is up 5.4% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.Analysis: No obvious new company-specific filing or earnings release appeared today, so the catalyst is not fully clear. This could be because investors are reacting to a mix of recent bullish signals, including fresh high-profile buying interest in the stock, optimism around Flutter’s scale in U.S. sports betting through FanDuel, an
Former Miami Hurricanes Defensive Game-Changer Recalls Iconic Pick
Keionte Scott relives the 72-yard playoff pick-six that silenced doubters, defied a hand injury, and signaled the Miami Hurricanes' thunderous return to college football's elite stage.
Seahawks Issued Compelling Take on Raiders’ Maxx Crosby
The Seattle Seahawks have one of the NFL’s most dominant pass rushes, which helped fuel their run to winning a Super Bowl last season. Nonetheless, the Seahawks were able to get to the quarterback without having a premier pass rusher. Seattle made the opposing signal-caller uncomfortable with a constant pass rush, thanks to their depth. […] The post Seahawks Issued Compelling Take on Raiders’ Maxx Crosby appeared first on HEAVY.
Disney+ Will Be Adding a Live TV Streaming Service From Hulu
So what’s happening to Hulu+ Live TV after the Hulu app shuts down? Disney has announced it will integrate Hulu with Live TV directly into the Disney+ application later this year. This development signals a significant shift in how the company delivers content to millions of subscribers across the United States. The move comes amid […]
Ryan Friedkin returns to the capital
Ryan Friedkin is ready to steal the show. Roma’s vice president is sending a signal: after about two months, he’s expected at Trigoria tomorrow to unravel all the remaining tangled knots. The Gial...
Assassinations unleashed under Trump haunt Iran war endgame
U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies have tracked evidence for years of Iranian efforts to target President Trump, with signals only increasing since the start of the war.
Is Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NasdaqGS:MLCO) A Bargain After Its Sri Lanka Launch?
Melco Resorts & Entertainment stock has had a difficult run over the past few years, yet its current valuation checks paint a more supportive picture for investors trying to judge whether the market has become too pessimistic. Over the past 5 years, the share price has declined 63.2%, which signals that sentiment around Melco Resorts & Entertainment has been weak for a prolonged period. The recent opening of City of Dreams Sri Lanka can support expectations for the company to grow its...
Derek Carr Reveals True Thoughts on Saints QB Tyler Shough
The New Orleans Saints are looking to win the NFC South, and they finally have the QB who will allow them to aspire to become a playoff contender this upcoming 2026 NFL season. Last season, rookie signal-caller Tyler Shough burst onto the scene and made it known that he’s the Saints’ answer at QB. During […] The post Derek Carr Reveals True Thoughts on Saints QB Tyler Shough appeared first on HEAVY.
This sell signal for stocks just hit most extreme level in 5 years
Bank of America's Bull & Bear Indicator is flashing a "sell" signal as investor bullishness looks to be unshakeable.
Scientists Used AI to Find Hidden Earthquake Signals Along the San Andreas Fault
Scientists used to think so-called “slow slip events” were “theoretically impossible.” Now these subtle tectonic shifts could be the key to predicting future earthquakes.
Two Days of U.S. Strikes in Iran Signal a Sharp Escalation
U.S. forces hit more than 170 targets, including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and military speedboats.
Why do mosquitoes bite some people more than others?
Long before they land, mosquitoes are reading our body signals from afar. Find out if you feature high on the bloodsuckers' hit list.
Ebola death toll reaches 600, as new cases suspected in other parts of Congo
New suspected cases of Ebola have been reported in parts of Congo that were previously unaffected, the government said, signaling the continued spread of the disease beyond the epicenter in Ituri.
The weirdest things that mess up WiFi - and how to improve your signal
The world runs on WiFi, but strange things can stand in its way – including your lunch.
All potential scheme changes coming to Rams in 2026
The Rams and Sean McVay are signaling significant scheme changes in 2026
The Pitcher Who Made the Tigers Feel Big Again
After decades of pitching mediocrity, Justin Verlander’s arrival signaled a shift in Detroit. His dominant swagger and electric fastball transformed the Tigers from AL bottom-dwellers into championship contenders.
A vitamin A discovery is changing what scientists know about vision
A surprising discovery is reshaping scientists' understanding of how humans develop sharp central vision before birth. Instead of blue cone cells migrating away from the retina's center, the study found they transform into red and green cones under the influence of vitamin A-related signals and thyroid hormones. The findings could improve lab-grown retinal tissue and lay the groundwork for future cell therapies to restore vision lost to age-related eye diseases.
Recent Primary Election Losses Signal Potential Health Committee Leadership Changes
July 6, 2026: The most recent news from the Public Sector Healthcare Roundtable A series of … Read More
AI Is Changing How Customers Choose Your Business
As AI increasingly mediates how customers research, evaluate, and choose suppliers, competitive advantage is shifting from direct customer understanding to managing AI-shaped interactions. Drawing on the experiences of three small-to-medium sized businesses they worked with, the authors show how firms can adapt. A manufacturer improved sales efficiency by screening AI-generated inquiries before investing engineering time in quotations. A boutique hotel learned to monitor how AI tools described its business and revised public content to improve accuracy and differentiation. A B2B software company replaced periodic customer reviews with continuous monitoring of customer feedback and AI-generated market perceptions. Across all three cases, the lesson is that firms must treat AI as a new intermediary in the customer relationship. Winning companies will not necessarily spend the most on technology; they will build systems for continuously listening, interpreting signals, and adapting strategy in markets where both customers and the information they rely on are increasingly AI-mediated.
Jaguars’ QB Lawrence Outperformed His Salary Last Season
An MVP finalist campaign and elite efficiency metrics prove Jacksonville’s $275 million investment is paying off as the star signal-caller climbs into the league’s upper echelon of quarterbacks.
Former Trail Blazers Forward Trendon Watford Teases Portland Return
With Portland’s frontcourt depth thin after a blockbuster backcourt overhaul, a versatile former fan favorite signals his desire to bring size and playmaking back to Rip City.
Protein lactylation in health and diseases: molecular mechanisms, biological significance, and clinical implications
Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy - Protein lactylation in health and diseases: molecular mechanisms, biological significance, and clinical implications
Build the perfect Rams linebacker
If you could create the ideal “signal caller” for the defense, what would he look like?
Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Stock May Trade At A Discount On Cash Flow While Earnings Look Rich
Sphere Entertainment stock has produced a very strong share price gain over the past few years, yet its valuation signals are pulling in different directions, with a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value pointing to some upside while traditional market multiples suggest the shares are expensive. Over the last 3 years, Sphere Entertainment has delivered a return of about 3.9x, which puts extra focus on whether today’s price still leaves room for further upside. Recent attention on Sphere...
Bucs Mayfield Sees His Own Redemption Arc in Kyler Murray
From collegiate hand-offs to unceremonious exits, Tampa Bay’s signal-caller defends his former backup’s move to Minnesota, drawing powerful parallels between their shared paths to professional survival.
'Tanmaxxing' trend could come at a dangerous cost, skin cancer experts warn
A dermatologist warns that "tanmaxxing" is causing DNA damage, calling the Gen Z tanning trend a "visible distress signal" rather than a wellness upgrade.
Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Stock May Be Cheap On Cash Flow Yet Pricey On Earnings
Sphere Entertainment has delivered very strong share price gains over the last three years, yet the valuation signals are pulling in different directions, with the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value estimate pointing to some upside while market based multiples look stretched. Sphere Entertainment has returned roughly 387.2% over three years, which puts a spotlight on whether recent gains already reflect most of the good news in the story. Expectations around demand for The Wizard of...
Noted neurobiologist and ex-taekwondo captain Chih-Ying Su leaves US for China
As former faculty vice dean swaps San Diego for Shenzhen, her lab offers jobs, training to researchers interested in sensory signalling.
Mesa Business Builder Offers Support for Local Entrepreneurs
Mesa Business Builder provides free consulting to help local businesses grow and succeed, reflecting the city's commitment to entrepreneurship. Mesa Business Builder Offers Support for Local Entrepreneurs
New adenomyosis atlas reveals lesion-specific signals that may spare healthy uterine tissue
Researchers at the University of Liverpool have identified distinctive biological characteristics within adenomyosis lesions that could help pave the way for more targeted, less invasive treatments. The ...
What your feet are trying to tell you about your health
These strange or unsuspecting foot and toe symptoms can signal problems elsewhere in the body.
This satellite constellation transformed earth science by creatively tuning in to GPS signals
When NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, launched into orbit in 2016, none of the University of Michigan Engineering researchers who developed the system expected it to transform ...
A strange LIGO signal could reveal the missing link behind dark matter
An unusual gravitational wave signal has renewed hopes that primordial black holes, long considered purely theoretical, may finally be within reach of discovery. If confirmed, they could solve one of astronomy's greatest mysteries by explaining the nature of dark matter.
Bucs' Mayfield Disrespected in New QB Tier Rankings
Despite delivering Pro Bowl performances and stabilizing Tampa Bay post-Brady, Baker Mayfield remains overlooked, landing in a baffling "volatile" tier behind less proven signal-callers and aging stars.
Trump's actions signal a move toward institutionalizing people with disabilities, advocates warn
For decades, disabled people have fought for their rights to go to school and live alongside peers without disabilities — rights that some fear could be losing ground under the Trump administration.
Politics complicate push for year-round E15, Iowa Farm Bureau president says
Questions loom over the status of E15 legislation in the U.S. Senate. “Mixed signals is very accurate.” Iowa Farm Bureau president Brent Johnson says he’s heard members of Congress say E15 can’t pass on its own, while others say it can. “So when you look at the makeup of the Senate, I do think we […]
SpaceX has an AI device prototype, and it sure sounds phone-ish
SpaceX reportedly showed investors a "handset-like" AI device before going public. It could be another signal SpaceX wants to expand into wireless.
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasizes political independence, signals focus on inflation
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said Wednesday that the central bank would remain independent and seek to bring down inflation, likely foreclosing the rate cuts President Trump has sought.
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasizes political independence, signals focus on inflation
In remarks at a central bank conference in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh said that if businesses or households thought the Fed would accept inflation above 2%, “I guess they'd be disappointed. We're going to deliver price stability.”
Study Reveals Biology Underlying Oral Health Issues in Down Syndrome
Low saliva from calcium signaling dysfunction, microbiome changes may contribute to high rates of gum disease
Meta pops 8% as company makes cloud push to sell excess AI compute power capacity
The new business is a welcome signal for some investors who have been uneasy about the company's infrastructure spending plans.
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasizes political independence, signals focus on inflation
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said Wednesday that the central bank would remain independent and seek to bring down inflation, likely foreclosing the rate cuts President Trump has sought
New Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasizes political independence, signals focus on inflation
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said Wednesday that the central bank would remain independent and seek to bring down inflation, likely foreclosing the rate cuts President Donald Trump has sought. The Fed typically combats inflation by raising borrowing costs. When asked about Trump's oft-repeated desire for lower rates, Warsh underscored the Fed's independence from day-to-day politics.
This satellite constellation transformed earth science by creatively tuning in to GPS signals
Governments and companies have launched similar constellations to use the method, called GNSS-R, to monitor and forecast wildfires, flooding and more.
This satellite constellation transformed earth science by creatively tuning in to GPS signals
Key takeaways —The first constellation to produce high-quality data by picking up GPS microwaves reflecting off Earth, called CYGNSS, is featured in the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum's Living in the Space Age exhibit. —Distortions in the reflected signals can reveal information about Earth, including hurricane wind speed and the distribution of moisture in soil, and the constellation provided unprecedented coverage in both time and space. —GNSS-R data is useful for mon
US Flag & Signal a true ‘red, white and blue’ business
PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY) — When you first step into U.S. Flag & Signal, you can’t help but notice a theme going on, but then again, red, white and blue have been the team colors here for mo…
How NYC politics signal a larger shift across the U.S. ahead of 2026 midterm elections
Why scientists fear we're missing evidence of extraterrestrial life
Scientists are raising concerns that we may be overlooking evidence of extraterrestrial life even when it is present. Hidden biosignatures, limitations in detection technology, and assumptions about what life should look like can all create dangerous false negatives. The researchers say future missions should focus not only on finding life, but also on understanding how signs of life could be missed.
Scientists discover an unexpected way to make pancreatic cancer cells self-destruct
Researchers tested experimental PCAI compounds against pancreatic cancer cells and found they had powerful anticancer effects. One leading compound blocked more than 90% of cancer cell migration, suggesting it could help prevent the spread of tumors. Rather than suppressing cancer signaling, the treatment hyperactivated key pathways until the cells essentially self-destructed.
Apple iPhone 18 Pro Release Schedule: Why iOS 27 Signals September Date
The just-released second developer beta of the next iPhone software helps confirm what is likely to happen and when for the next iPhones’ release date.
Summer Blockbuster Entertainment
“It’s summertime and the living is easy,” those words sung by Ella Fitzgerald in the 1960s might not ring as true in 2026, but summertime should still be the time […]
Hawaii is turning ocean plastic and fishing nets into roads
Hawaii researchers are giving old fishing nets and recycled plastic a second life by mixing them into asphalt roads. Early tests found these roads didn't release more plastic particles than standard pavement, with tire wear overwhelming any plastic signal from the recycled material. If future studies confirm the roads are durable, the technology could help tackle both marine pollution and overflowing landfills.
New hollow-core fiber test pushes internet speeds to 1.2Tb/s
Chinese researchers achieved a new milestone in fiber-optic technology, achieving ultra-fast data transmission over long distances without signal repeaters.
White House mandates move away from overdose prevention in US health programs
Experts say move signals greater political interference into public health and will exacerbate opioid overdose crisis
New York’s primaries signal a new force in US politics
Progressive, Muslim and Arab American candidates are challenging old limits on debate over Israel and Palestine.
What New York’s primary upheaval means for Democrats: Join Friday’s Whole Hog
Democrats are still feeling the political aftershocks of New York’s primaries on Tuesday night, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani-backed victories. What could it signal for the party? Pl…
Prosperity Council’s Report Challenges Kotek to Signal That Oregon Is Open for Business
The 15-member panel of business and labor leaders proposed four modest tax code changes, replacing the Climate Protection Program, and some less controversial reforms.
WATCH: Kellyanne Conway insists socialist primary victories don't reflect American values nationwide
Kellyanne Conway says Democratic primary wins reflect only a handful of specific districts and do not signal a broader political shift nationwide.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.