SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " JACOB " 528 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers: Cam Schlittler vs. Jacob deGrom
The budding star will clash with an icon in Arlington.
'Euphoria' new episode hits major character with shockingly gory surprise
'Euphoria' season 3, episode 3 just hit Jacob Elordi's Nate with a shockingly gory surprise after the character's wedding to Sydney Sweeney's Cassie.
Iraq’s Communists Are Fighting Against Sectarian Politics
Although Iraq’s Communist Party has lost much of the support it enjoyed at its peak, it still has a real presence on the Iraqi political scene. Its general secretary Ra’id Fahmi tells Jacobin about the need to challenge Iraq’s sectarian power structure.
Can Class Politics Win Again?
Krystal Ball, Vivek Chibber, and Matt Karp discuss how class politics stalled after the Bernie Sanders campaigns — and why a new political opening is finally emerging.
Entertainment briefs | ‘Dance Visions’ at Cal Poly Humboldt
“The Year to Save the Earth,” a multimedia experience mixing powerful songs and projected images, will be featured May 1 at 7 p.m. at the Humboldt Unitarian Universalist Fellowship, 24 Fellowship Way off Jacoby Creek Road in Bayside. “The Y…
Marc Jacobs' Rachel Sennott Collab Kicks Off Pivot to Social Entertainment
Marc Jacobs teamed up with Rachel Sennott on a new microdrama as it shifts toward social-first entertainment.
Six New Projects Are Empowering Early-Career Engineering and Computer Science Faculty
Six teams from the UC San Diego Jacobs School of Engineering have been awarded funding to accelerate interdisciplinary research collaborations that include an early-career faculty member.
An Instagram DM changed everything for Rachel Reid, Jacob Tierney and 'Heated Rivalry'
Rachel Reid and Jacob Tierney were sensations at BookCon, thanks to the success of “Heated Rivalry.” | Talk 1370
From Donald Trump to Jacob Frey — has politics lost its profanity filter?
If there was ever a set of rules for politicians interfacing with the public, steadfast avoidance of profanity might have been at the very top of such a list. Robert’s Rules of Order, which are often invoked in political spaces, certainly prohibit personal insults, including profanity. But these are new times. Just last week, President Donald Trump […]
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
'Heated Rivalry' showrunner calls season 2 'much more serious territory,' teases Troy's arrival
'Heated Rivalry' season 2 will get into 'much more serious territory,' showrunner Jacob Tierney teased during a BookCon 2026 panel this weekend. He also confirmed that new character Troy Barrett will be 'quite damaged': 'We're digging into that even harder.'
Briggs: Our takeaways from Toledo football's promising first spring under Mike Jacobs
The Toledo football team wrapped up spring practice Saturday in front of a couple thousand fans at the Glass Bowl, where the sun began to sneak through the ...
Athletics' Jacob Wilson problem might not go away anytime soon
This might become a season-long issue for the A's.
Report: Jacoby Brissett not at Cardinals workouts, wants new contract
The Cardinals haven't named Jacoby Brissett their starting quarterback, but he reportedly would like a contractual commitment from the team that reflects the chance that he'll be under center in Week 1.
Exclusive First Look: Ridley Scott Says The Dog Stars Will Surprise You
Jacob Elordi, Margaret Qualley, and Josh Brolin play desperate survivors in this adaptation of Peter Heller’s end-of-days novel.
Pre-draft picture: Packers looking for better health at running back
Josh Jacobs played banged up in 2025, MarShawn Lloyd still trying to get going
EOU students win awards for their business ideas
LA GRANDE — Local university students and alumni made a big splash in April with their business ideas at the Eastern Oregon Innovation Jam. The Rural Engagement and Vitality Center […]
Minneapolis public safety debate back in a familiar place: anger, political squabbling
The Minneapolis City Council’s rejection of Mayor Jacob Frey’s public safety commissioner renewed the angry divisions over policing that have characterized city politics in recent years.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Chelsea monitoring Nottingham Forest’s Murillo
Chelsea have shortlisted Nottingham Forest centre-half Murillo as the Blues search for defensive reinforcement this summer, according to Jacob Steinberg.Chelsea desperately need an experienced defende...
Patriots showing serious interest in Missouri linebacker
Khalil Jacobs has had multiple points of contact with the Patriots, including a 30 visit.
Secretary of State warns Montana businesses of deceptive mailing
Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen warned business owners Wednesday of a company engaging in “a new deceptive mailing."
Jacobs Institute of Women’s Health Launches New Initiative to Strengthen Postpartum Care | Milken Institute School of Public Health | The George Washington University
Initiative, funded by The Commonwealth Fund, will convene leading clinicians, researchers and policy experts to define and advance high-quality postpartum care nationwide
"Very difficult, perhaps altogether impossible": Smith's political science at Econlib
We’re joining our friends at Liberty Matters in their celebration of the 250th anniversary of the publication of An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations through a series of six weekly essays. In this fifth essay, Jacob T. Levy explores one of Smith’s most famous claims in Book V of Wealth […]
The Business of Euphoria
From Nate Jacobs in Bottega to a Balenciaga fashion show collab, luxury is front and center in Euphoria season three.
Rangers Manager Makes Jacob deGrom Revelation After Mariners Game
The Texas Rangers defeated the Seattle Mariners on Monday. Jacob deGrom started the game and pitched well. After the game, Rangers manager Skip Schumaker explained why the team decided to go to the bullpen in the sixth inning, via Kennedi Landry.
Congressmembers give surprise visit to Otay Mesa Detention Center for health inspection
Two members of San Diego’s Congressional delegation visited the Otay Mesa Detention Center Thursday to follow up on months of complaints from people held inside.
Reds pitcher incredibly enters class of Jacob Misiorowski
Cincinnati Reds reliever Graham Ashcraft sees a major surge in his slider's velocity, joining elite class with Brewers star Misiorowski.
Can regional sports networks survive, or even thrive? Depends on who you ask
Charlie Jacobs, the CEO of hockey’s Boston Bruins, is convinced that his three children, all in their twenties, will likely never sign up for a traditional cable package to watch television. But his kids will certainly have WiFi in their homes, and through the internet, the ability to watch sports teams all the same. For years, a central question in sports and media has been whether streaming subscribers, as Jacobs’ children would be, could ever drive enough revenue to fill sports stations’ tills. Now, some regional sports networks such as New England Sports Network, or NESN, are...
Entertainment Listing: April 1
Wednesday April 1 Hangar 9 • Carbondale Jacob Wolfson All Request Piano Show, 7 p.m. PK’s • Carbondale Trivia, 8 p.m. Project Human X • Carbondale Advertisement Open studio, 4 p.m. Little Nashville • Marion Open Mic with John Wofford, 6 p.m. Thursday April 2 Booby’s • Carbondale Karaoke, 8:30 p.m. Hangar 9 •...
Why GM thinks OnStar, Super Cruise subscriptions will soon ‘fundamentally transform’ its business
GM sees an "exponential opportunity" to grow its high-margin subscription business, CFO Paul Jacobson said, pointing to strong year-over-year revenue growth.
Mid-Ohio Valley Spring Sports: Roane County Raiders schedule
Baseball Head coach: Larry Ash, 2nd year Assistant coaches: Matt Ash, Will Starcher Last year: 9-12 Roster Seniors 3 Jacob Greathouse (C/P), 8 Caden Caldwell (2B/MI), 16 Hogan Greathouse (DH/OF), 23 Carder Kinder (CF/P/UTL) Juniors 9 Brodey Proctor (LF), 11 Carson Casto (OF), 15 Alex Richardson (C/3B/P), 22 Reis Thornabar (1B/P) Sophomores 1 Wyatt Brabham […]
Mid-Ohio Valley Spring Sports: Williamstown Yellowjackets schedule
Baseball Head coach: Levi Maxwell Assistant coaches: Ryan Scott, Mark Adkins, Matt Houser, Cole MacIver, Josh Yearego Roster Seniors Wyatt Powell, Dylan Pucella Juniors Wyatt Siley, Austin McDonald Sophomores Breck Allen, Jackson Fulton, Noal Powell, Jacob MacIver Freshmen Ben Raines, Brayden Strcula, Colten Rinard, Daniel Cunningham, Zander Brookover, Alexander Schmidt Schedule March 23: at Doddridge […]
John Jacobs: Put students, not politics, first in Alabama classrooms…
We can, and should, get back to the basics of ensuring Alabama’s classrooms remain places where students come first. Our children deserve nothing less. |…
Mental Health Workers Fight for AI Protections in California
In Northern California, 2,400 mental health providers went on strike earlier this month against medical giant Kaiser Permanente. A major point of contention is Kaiser’s efforts to replace human-provided mental health care with artificial intelligence.
Ashley Benson Signs With Strand Entertainment (EXCLUSIVE)
Ashley Benson has inked with Strand Entertainment for management. She continues to be repped by IAG and Hansen, Jacobson, Teller.
How to watch ‘Wuthering Heights’ on Prime Video
Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi star in this tumultuous love story set against the Yorkshire moors.
Gen Z brothers bought a $4,000 pickup truck to start their business—now it brings in $3 million a year
Kirk and Jacob McKinney found entrepreneurial inspiration at a local dump, launching junk removal and reselling business Junk Teens while still in high school.
Ten Pieces of Non-Technical Career Advice for Engineering and Computer Science Students
At a new event focused on student success and career readiness at the Jacobs School of Engineering, alumni and faculty shared non-technical career advice with current students.
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament: Ranking the Sweet 16 Matchups
FOX Sports' Casey Jacobsen ranks the Sweet 16 matchups in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
Jacobs Entertainment begins construction on downtown sports fields
Jacobs Entertainment has begun building the flat fields
Jacobs Entertainment begins construction on downtown sports fields
Jacobs Entertainment has begun building the flat fields that will make up their youth sports initiative.
Jacobs Entertainment begins construction on downtown sports fields
Jacobs Entertainment has begun building the flat fields that will make up their youth sports initiative.
Jacobs Entertainment gets permits for sports fields, now under construction
2 News Nevada has gotten a look at new youth sports fields that are under construction in downtown Reno.
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx Brings Novel Minimally Invasive Vascular Surgery Procedures to the Bronx - NYC Health + Hospitals
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx today announced it has begun offering two types of minimally invasive surgical procedures that were
Jacob Devaney: Man United loanee puts in midfield masterclass
Manchester United had six players in loan action on Saturday afternoon.To find out where all of Manchester United’s loanees are plying their trade this season, click hereEthan EnnisEnnis played the ...
NVIDIA DLSS 5 Takes 2D Frame and Motion Vectors as Input
The public is still learning more about DLSS 5 technology, and NVIDIA is gradually revealing additional details. In a conversation between YouTuber Daniel Owen and NVIDIA's GeForce Evangelist Jacob Freeman, we discover that DLSS 5 essentially takes 2D frames and motion vectors as input, applying its...
Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2026: Breakouts by model that called Jacob Wilson's impressive season
The SportsLine model reveals its top 2026 Fantasy baseball breakouts after nailing Jacob Wilson's huge 2025 season
NCAA Men's Tournament Cinderella Ladder: Look Out For Akron, South Florida
FOX Sports' Casey Jacobsen offers up his March Madness Cinderella Ladder, highlighted by Akron and South Florida.
2026 Valspar Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from model that's called 16 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the Valspar Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets
2026 Valspar Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from model that's called 16 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the Valspar Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx Welcomes Angela Carter, DNP, NE-BC, CPHQ as Chief Nursing Officer - NYC Health + Hospitals
Christopher Mastromano, CEO of NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx today announced the appointment of Angela Carter, DNP, NE-BC, CPHQ as
Jacob Kiplimo breaks half marathon world record by 10 seconds
Kiplimo also won the 2025 Chicago Marathon.
The Business of Heated Rivalry
Heated Rivalry, the steamy hockey romance show, was made for about $2 million per episode. That is remarkably cheap for an hour-long drama.Today on the show, a conversation with Heated Rivalry creators Jacob Tierney and Brendan Brady about their television miracle on ice.It’s not just that the show was made efficiently and cleverly. Heated Rivalry comes from a Canadian economic system of making TV and movies that is completely different from how we do things in the US.In this episode of Planet Money, in partnership with the Pivot podcast co-hosted by Kara Swisher, we hear about a Canadian production model for making TV and movies and how it’s different from the U.S. model. And we learn what the experience of making Heated Rivalry teaches us about the current state of both industries.Live event info and tickets here.Pre-order the Planet Money book and get a free gift. / Subscribe to Planet Money+Listen free: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.The original Pivot episode from New York Magazine and The Vox Media Podcast Network was hosted by Kara Swisher, produced by Lara Naman, Zoë Marcus and Taylor Griffin and engineered by Brandon McFarland. Nishat Kurwa is Vox Media's Executive Producer of podcasts. This episode of Planet Money was hosted by Kenny Malone, produced by James Sneed, edited by Jess Jiang and fact-checked by Lara Naman. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.
Jacobs' 21 help Southern knock off Alabama State 71-64
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) Michael Jacobs had 21 points in Southern's 71-64 victory over Alabama State on Tuesday night.
Manternach receives Early Extension Award
Jacob Manternach, industry extension specialist in animal science, is the recipient of the staff 2026 Early Achievement in Extension and Outreach Award from the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at Iowa State University. For the past two-and-a-half years, he has played a pivotal role in the success of the meat science extension program.
Professor who reportedly paused UK puberty blockers trial recused over ‘bias’
Regulator says Prof Jacob George will no longer be involved after gender-criticial social media posts from last year
Cricket in the Crossfire of Politics
As the 2026 World Cricket Cup unfolds under diplomatic strain, rising tensions between India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh show that the sport is no longer just a game but a stage where politics, nationalism, and media capital collide.
No Offense: Devils Drop 5th Straight
There was a point, about midway through Thursday’s 4-1 loss to Pittsburgh, where it kind of, sort of felt as if the Devils might manage to salvage a point, maybe even steal two from the Penguins. Paul Cotter had scored, an almost water-to-wine level miracle. Jacob Markstrom was playing as well as he has at […]
Prep baseball: Notre Dame shows off its power in 9-7 win
Troy Trejo had a tiebreaking two-run home run in the seventh inning and Jacob Madrid homered twice with four RBIs to lead the Knights past El Dorado.
Jacob Bridgeman reveals Tiger Woods’ message after winning Genesis Invitational
Jacob Bridgeman proudly revealed the conversation he had with Tiger Woods after winning The Genesis Invitational.
Men's College Basketball Rankings: Duke, Michigan Lead the Way; Houston Falls
FOX Sports' Casey Jacobsen shares his latest men's college hoops rankings with Duke taking over the top spot after its big win over Michigan.
Alumnus builds career in biomedical research at the National Institutes of Health
Before leading national biomedical research projects, Jacob Davis ’17 was deployed overseas in the U.S. Army, taking night classes on base and searching for direction. Today, the Kennesaw State University graduate is a biomedical engineer and section chief at the National Institutes of Health, using data and collaboration to drive public-health impact.
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx Unveils $2 Million Upgraded MRI Suite at North Central Bronx Campus - NYC Health + Hospitals
Bronx, NY — NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx today unveiled a new $2 million MRI suite at the North Central Bronx campus with renovated
Politics Is Everywhere, So Why Do People Feel So Powerless?
The defining feature of the last decade was that everything, from food to music, was politicized. All the while, our capacity to act collectively only grew weaker. Anton Jäger’s Hyperpolitics sets out to explain why.
‘I blew it’: What happens when you fall short on the biggest sporting stage?
From Lindsey Jacobellis to Ilia Malinin, perceived failure on the world stage is public and permanent - but it's how you react that matters
Men's College Basketball Rankings: Purdue, Texas Tech Make Massive Jumps
FOX Sports' Casey Jacobsen shares his latest men's college hoops rankings with several big moves this week.
'Wuthering Heights' Is Like A Horny Teenage Fever Dream — And Yes, That's A Good Thing
The film adaptation of Emily Bronté's novel starring Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi is nothing like the book you read in English class — and for good reason.
Jacobs Entertainment starts construction on new soccer fields
Jacobs Entertainment has officially started construction on new soccer fields in downtown Reno.
‘Wuthering Heights’ review: A messy, occasionally irresistible adaptation
Emerald Fennell's "Wuthering Heights," starring Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, is basically fan fiction of Emily Brontë’s 1847 novel, writes Moira Macdonald.
Sports Daily: Shockers prepare for critical pair of games
Jacob and Tejay react to KU’s monster win against No. 1 and previously-undefeated Arizona at Allen Fieldhouse.
Missouri sports betting market officially launched: Snag $3,000 in sportsbook sign-up bonuses, top promos here
Missourians can now place sports bets with mobile sportsbooks and get Missouri sports betting offers for the Missouri betting launch
How ‘Heated Rivalry’ changed the game for Canadian TV
Creator Jacob Tierney, producing partner Brendan Brady and the executives who supported the series explain why it will remain thoroughly Canadian in Season 2.
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi Celebrates 100th Case Using Ion Robotic-Assisted Bronchoscopy - NYC Health + Hospitals
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi today announced its 100th case using Ion robotic-assisted bronchoscopy to identify early-stage lung cancer. This technology
Men's College Basketball Rankings: Florida, Illinois Climbing; Purdue Falls
FOX Sports' Casey Jacobsen shares his latest men's college hoops rankings with several big moves this week.
What’s open and closed in this government shutdown
If you're watching this, the government is shut down. Reporter Jacob Bogage breaks down what services are open and closed during the shutdown.
Prep talk: Bay League has a trio of top senior pitchers for 2026 baseball season
Garrett Jacobs of Mira Costa, Robby Zimmerman of Redondo Union and Kai Van Scoyoc of Palos Verdes are pitchers to watch this spring in high school baseball.
Takeaways from CNN’s Minnesota town hall
Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, in a CNN town hall Wednesday night, stood by the city’s sanctuary policies and repeated his demand that federal immigration agents leave the city.
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx Appoints Grace Hyun, MD as Chief of Urology and Nassir Mansour, MD as Chief of Neurosurgery - NYC Health + Hospitals
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx today announced the appointments of Grace Hyun, MD as Chief of Urology and Nassir Mansour, MD as Chief
The Class Politics of Austerity
A new book by economist Clara Mattei explains why calls for governments to balance budgets and live within their means are often a thinly veiled justification for an assault on the poor.
Mayor Jacob Frey: Subpoenas to me, fellow officials ‘obviously frivolous’
The subpoenas come as President Trump continues to float the possibility of invoking the Insurrection Act in Minnesota.
Men's College Basketball Rankings: Houston, Virginia Climb, Arizona Still on Top
FOX Sports' Casey Jacobsen shares his latest men's college hoops rankings with several big moves this week.
Northampton bar faces restricted entertainment license due to noise and safety issues
NORTHAMPTON — Noise complaints and safety concerns at a downtown bar regularly featuring live music and DJs is prompting the License Commission to temporarily restrict the days the business can have entertainment. The commission at its Jan. 7 meeting voted 3-0 to limit the entertainment license for Haze, 24 Main St., to Tuesdays, Thursdays, Fridays […]
Justice Department opens investigation into Minnesota governor and Minneapolis mayor
Federal prosecutors are investigating Gov. Tim Walz and Mayor Jacob Frey.
DOJ investigating Minnesota governor, Minneapolis mayor over alleged obstruction of law enforcement, source says
The Justice Department is investigating Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey over possible obstruction of federal law enforcement, a source familiar with the matter told CNN.
The Minneapolis mayor ‘grabbed the megaphone’ and told ICE to leave his city. Trump doubled down instead
Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey delivered a stern message one week ago to federal agents following the deadly shooting of a Minnesota woman who was protesting their efforts to round up immigrants in the state. “Get the f**k out of Minneapolis,” Frey said.
Motorists’ Party Brings MAGA to Czech Politics
The Czech Republic’s new environment minister is leader of a pro–fossil fuel party called Motorists for Themselves. It’s part of a right-wing backlash in Europe, moving to kill off the EU’s Green Deal.
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx Expands Maternal Health Programs - NYC Health + Hospitals
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx today announced expanded maternal health programs under its new Chair of Obstetrics and Gynecology,
Most Impressive Road Wins in Men’s College Basketball This Season
FOX Sports' Casey Jacobsen offers up his picks for the three best road wins in men's college basketball this season.
Trump pulls from the left's economic playbook: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey returns to the national spotlight.
Purdue University Northwest announces new dean of the College of Business
Purdue University Northwest (PNW) has announced David G. Taylor will serve as the Teddy Jacobi Dean of the PNW College of Business, effective July 1, 2026. Taylor was selected through a national search process.
After ICE shooting, Minneapolis mayor emerges with blunt rebuke of Trump
Democrat Jacob Frey has countered the administration’s portrayal of events in sharp and at times profane terms. His reaction is shaped by a tenure of crises.
Ohio State students hone academic, business skills through study abroad programs
Students across various majors at The Ohio State University recently gathered at the Fisher College of Business to discuss how study abroad opportunities have helped them hone skills that will benefit their studies and chosen career paths.Fisher’s Office of Global Business and its Office of Advancement hosted the inaugural Global Experience Lu...
Bethell had cricket in his blood, says ex-teacher
Jacob Bethell, who went to Rugby School, scored his maiden Test century during the fifth Ashes Test.
NFL Wild Card Weekend player prop picks for statistical leaders
DraftKings has posted odds on individual passing, receiving and rushing leaders during NFL Wild Card Weekend, and here are value picks in each from Matt Severance.
Stars end losing streak with 4-1 win over Capitals
CANADIENS 4, FLAMES 1 MONTREAL (AP) — Alexandre Texier had a goal and two assists, Jacob Fowler made 28 saves and Montreal beat Calgary. Lane Hutson, Oliver Kapanen and Cole Caufield also scored to help Montreal improve to 24-13-6. Joel Farabee scored for Calgary, and Dustin Wolf stopped 31 shots.
Who is Jacob Frey? Meet the Dem mayor who told ICE to 'get the f--- out' of his city
Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey pushes back against Trump deportation efforts, calling his city a 'safe haven,' prohibiting city property use for immigration operations and demanding ICE "get the f---" out of the city.
Fox News Politics Newsletter: Frey tells ICE to 'get the f--- out of Minneapolis'
Welcome to the Fox News Politics newsletter, with the latest updates on the Trump administration, Capitol Hill and more Fox News politics content.
After over 13 years, owners of Westport business put it up for sale
After 13+ years, owners of a local business are hoping that the public can help them find someone that will carry the torch that they lit. Mother/daughter team Marcelle Gauvin and Kelsey Jacobsen have announced that Double Bar Music at 549 American Legion Highway in Westport is up for sale. "W