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Big health industry group sues WA over new drug-pricing law
A national drugmaker group is suing Washington over a new law that aims to protect patient access to discounted prescription medication.
In letter to Xi, Trump asks China not to send weapons to Iran
Trump warns China against supplying weapons to Iran, says Xi Jinping responded with a letter claiming he is not providing arms to the country.
Japan Pledges $10 Billion to Help Countries Cope With Oil Prices
With supply chains at risk, the aid to Southeast Asian nations is aimed at securing the availability of oil-based products, including medical equipment.
Preston Middle School reclaims state title in Science Olympiad
Preston Middle School reclaims the Science Olympiad state title, winning its 14th since 2010 and 15th overall to advance to the national tournament.
Test your knowledge of local history on The Quest
The Quest is a unique game combining elements of a reality TV show and a traditional scavenger hunt, aimed at educating participants about the interesting facts surrounding Linn County's and Cedar Rapids' history.
This week in Santa Cruz County business: Paystand’s new partnership, U.S. trade commission to investigate claims against Joby, Dharma’s cry for help
Jessica M. Pasko's weekly column is back with news of local payments company Paystand partnering with a big name, a U.S. Trade Commission investigation in to Joby Aviation, upcoming dates to know, and more.
UK fund major L&G aims to double Asia business, CEO says
Britain's biggest asset manager Legal & General aims to double its assets under management in Asia to around $500 billion amid its push to grow its international business, CEO Antonio Simoes told Reuters on Monday.
Trump phone gets new look, release date still unclear
There's no information on the website about when the phone will be released, and its "Made in the USA" claims have been further watered down.
Labour claims Reform UK won’t protect women, as poll suggests Farage’s party heading for ‘seismic’ wins in May
Poll projects major political earthquake across Britain with Labour losing Wales and England’s Red Wall
Arsenal XI vs Sporting CP – Predicted lineup and team news
Arsenal host Sporting CP tonight, aiming to clinch a place in the Champions League semi-finals.The Gunners hold a slender 1–0 aggregate lead after a resilient display in Lisbon last week. Mikel Arte...
StarTalk: w/ Andy Weir on the Science of Project Hail Mary (Transcript)
Editor's Notes: In this episode of StarTalk, Neil deGrasse Tyson welcomes back acclaimed sci-fi author Andy Weir to discuss the intricate scientific foundations of his latest bestseller-turned-film, Project Hail Mary. The duo explores the fascinating
Mountain View considers downtown entertainment zone
(KRON) — The City of Mountain View is considering new legislation to establish an entertainment zone in its downtown area. The proposed ordinance, introduced Tuesday evening at a City Council meeting, would allow for public, outdoor alcohol consumption during special events on five blocks of Castro Street. The initiative aims to create a festive environment […]
Mayor picks first site for city-owned grocery
Mayor Mamdani selected East Harlem to be the first location for his city-run grocery stores, aimed at giving New Yorkers cheaper staples.
New educational science space, Scitopia Chicago, planned for Washington Park
A bold concept on Chicago’s South Side aims to transform a long-vacant lot into a science destination — with teenagers at the center of it.
Disney’s 1,000-Person Layoffs Claim Entire PR Teams, Specialty Divisions
Disney's 1,000-person layoffs impacted Marvel and several entire divisions of publicity, and some lieutenants of Asad Ayaz.
Pitt to offer online Infant Mental Health certificate
A new University of Pittsburgh academic program aims to address the mental health, growth and development needs of infants and toddlers amid a shortage of qualified, working professionals. Pitt has launched a new, online graduate certificate in Infant Mental Health. The 12-credit program kicks off this fall, said Robert Gallen,
Democrats aim to keep their special election gains going: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales officially resign.
Two Sporting stars could miss their trip to Arsenal
Sporting Club will be aiming to overturn their first leg defeat to Arsenal when the two sides meet in the Champions League quarter-final return leg at the Emirates Stadium tomorrow. The Portuguese clu...
Traveling mental health exhibit brings message of hope to Nazareth University
Nazareth University is aiming to communicate hope through a powerful traveling exhibit.
Letter: It's not politics, it's the Gospel
"Funny how (Sen.) Cramer thinks it's OK to twist Biblical passages to defend his political cruelty, but not for the Pope to speak out on the very thing all ministers of the Gospel are called to proclaim – advocacy for the least of these and the message of peace, love, grace and acceptance that’s the core of who God is and what preachers are ordained to preach," writes Rev. Paula V. Mehmel.
Veterans Health Administration Begins Recovery Audits for Community Care Claims
The Veterans Health Administration has announced the agency is starting recovery audits for community care claims submitted for Veteran and beneficiary care.
Bill to expand subacute mental health care access goes to governor's desk
A bill that aims to expand access to subacute mental health care, which is one step below hospitalization, is on its way to the governor’s desk.
CBIA slams Appropriations Committee for rejecting small business health care bill
The state’s largest business organization is taking Connecticut legislators to task after the Appropriations Committee failed Monday to approve a bill that aims to help small businesses with their health care costs.
CBIA slams Appropriations Committee for rejecting small business health care bill
The state’s largest business organization is taking Connecticut legislators to task after the Appropriations Committee failed Monday to approve a bill that aims to help small businesses with their health care costs.
Advertisers demand billions of dollars from Google in escalating monopoly battle
Alphabet Inc.’s Google is facing billions of dollars in potential damage claims as part of mass arbitration tied to the company’s online search and advertising technology businesses, which courts have ruled were illegal monopolies.
Trump Administration Accuses Biden DOJ of Unfairly Prosecuting Anti-Abortion Activists
The report is part of the president’s effort to claim anti-conservative and anti-Christian biases in federal law enforcement, even as he pushes to wield the legal system against his political enemies.
Critics blast Democrats after Swalwell resignation, say saga shows ‘how politics really works’
Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation amid sexual abuse allegations draws fierce criticism, with pundits claiming Democrats sat on the dirt for years.
24,000 Years After Being Frozen In The Siberian Permafrost, This Ancient Creature Woke Up And Began To Reproduce
Scientists thawed the ancient sample from the Alazeya River in northeastern Siberia, and to their surprise, the creature woke up.
Trump deletes Jesus image after backlash
The president claimed he thought the image depicted him as a doctor
Capital One closes Spark Miles, launches Venture Business
The Capital One Spark Miles is no longer open to new applicants, but the Venture Business has arrived to offer solid perks in its place.
In His Latest Deranged Rant, Trump Claims the Pope Is Catering to the “Radical Left”
The president is just inches from saying the conclave was rigged, isn’t he?
Ally reaches ’50/50 pledge’ on women’s sports spending ahead of schedule
The pledge, which aimed for gender parity in sports media investment within five years, has been realized in just four.
Iowa House passes bill expanding subacute mental health care
A bill aiming to remove barriers for mental health access in Iowa is heading to the governor's desk.
VA announces intent to reorganize the Veterans Health Administration
The Department of Veterans Affairs is restructuring the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to eliminate administrative hurdles and grant local hospital directors greater autonomy, the VA said in an announcement on Dec. 15, 2025. The shift aims to modernize the system, ensuring veterans receive consistent, high-quality care regardless of the VA facility they visit. The VA said this isn’t a reduction in force or an attempt to reduce VHA staffing levels. The department said the goal is to improve veteran health outcomes and ensure policies are applied consistently throughout all facilities. As part of the reorganization, the VHA Central Office will have responsibility for setting policy goals and conducting financial management, oversight and compliance, and operation centers and Veterans Integrated Service Networks (VISNs) will take policy direction from the VHA Central Office to develop operational, quality and performance standards. The changes aim to provide clearer guidance for delivering health care throughout the VA. For DAV’s statement on VHA reorganization, scan the code or visit qrs.ly/q9h7shd. For DAV’s statement on VHA reorganization, visit dav.org/learn-more/news/2025/dav-statement-on-vha-reorganization/.
Tulsa, OKC business leaders unite for first joint Washington, D.C. trip
Business leaders from across Oklahoma are heading to the nation's capitol this week to advocate for a shared legislative agenda aimed at boosting economic development across the state.
After falling short last season, TF Sport has unfinished business in WEC
TF Sport's Corvettes were in title contention for much of last season but they ultimately fell short This year the aim is to finish the job.
Detroit Aims to Become Center of U.S. Drone Manufacturing
The state, known for making cars, is spending millions to entice drone manufacturers that can bring new business to auto suppliers.
How Do Bigfoot Hunters Use Scientific Evidence? We Asked Two Sociologists Who Have Spent Years Among The Bigfooters
Bigfooting is a specific activity within the Bigfoot believer communities. Rather than being antagonistic to science, they mobilize science-like activities to support their views.
Hegseth right to mock Royal Navy, says ex-army chief as he backs claims over military underfunding
Richard Barrons backs George Robertson and says UK forces ‘too small and undernourished for the world that we now live in’
UMass Chan faculty, medical students aim to improve health through reducing hospital waste
As part of an initiative to help reduce unnecessary waste, students, faculty and staff participated in a 24-hour trash audit at UMass Memorial Medical Center.
‘They can’t keep their zippers up’: Former Rep. Jackie Speier reacts to claims against Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzalez
Pope Leo’s resolute response to Trump attack reveals a man of God, not politics
Pope Leo XIV does not claim to direct political outcomes. He claims the right, and the duty, to judge them.
Fact-checking Trump's claim that Pope Leo supports nuclear weapons in Iran
President Donald Trump issued a flurry of statements Sunday against Pope Leo XIV, saying in part that the U.S.-born pope supports Iran having a nuclear weapon. However, the pope has specifically spoken against nuclear weapons and their devastation.
New Missouri health care hub aims to better integrate primary, behavioral care
Two Missouri healthcare organizations have collaborated to create a new healthcare center in Jefferson City.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
Cleveland Clinic Launches ‘Good Science’ Video Series
The series of short videos is aimed at helping people better understand research and health information.
Julie’s new AI chatbot aims to fix a major gap in women’s health information
The emergency contraception brand is using a chatbot to answer the questions Gen Z is already asking online.
Apple is making AI glasses, report claims
iPhone maker will hope that its high-end design can take on Meta’s Ray-Ban glasses
The Global Supply Of Helium Is Being Disrupted, Impacting A Range Of Critical Industries Including Medicine And Tech Development
Helium may be one of the most underestimated resources when it comes to our international dependence.
Democrat-Leaning Plan Takes Aim At Health Insurers With Proposed New Regulations
Healthcare initiatives being proposed like Patients' Bill of Rights offer a roadmap for Democrats’ priorities, with midterms looming and a presidential election in 2028.
AIFF to offer 40 film programs, four days of entertainment
Ashland-born filmmaker to screen debut feature film ‘A Simple Machine’ Celebrating its 25th anniversary, the Ashland Independent Film Festival is set to return in late April, bringing in acclaimed filmmakers […]
County Tyrone: Campaigners claim gold mine plans would risk public health
Dalradian says its said it its proposals would "build an environmentally responsible project".
iPhone 18 Pro Deep Red Color Likely as Android Rivals Prep Same Shade
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro is very likely to come in a new deep red color, claims a Chinese leaker, because the color is already being prototyped by Android phone makers. In February, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple is testing a deep red finish for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Rumors of purple and brown finishes have also circulated, but Gurman believes those are just variants of the same red idea.
Hospitals roll out chatbots, looking to reclaim their role in patients' health conversations
A handful of hospitals are launching their own chatbots, a risky bet aimed at better serving current patients and gaining new ones.
Jokic stars as Nuggets secure third seed in final game
Nikola Jokic scores 23 points in the first half as the Denver Nuggets beat the San Antonio Spurs 128-118 to claim third seed in the Western Conference.
Howden steps up US push with specialty trucking build-out
The company is rolling out a dedicated US Trucking Practice focused on data, safety tech and claims advocacy
Trump says Pope Leo is ‘terrible for foreign policy’
US President Donald Trump strongly criticized Pope Leo XIV on Truth Social on Sunday evening, claiming he is “weak on crime” and “terrible for foreign policy.”
DHS investigating claim about Swalwell nanny filed by conspiracy theorist
Joel Gilbert, who mailed anti-Barack Obama film to voters in 2012, accuses congressman of violating immigration law
Mamdani Embraces Socialist ‘Pothole Politics’ in Knockdown Center Barn Burner
The mayor marked his first 100 days on the job in an event aimed at celebrating city workers while extending the energy of his successful campaign — with a surprise appearance by Sen. Benie Sanders.
Ohio lawmakers introduce new bills to severely restrict sports gambling across the state
Three Ohio state representatives introduced a pair of new bills this week that aim to severely restrict the availability of sports betting in the state. This comes after Gov. Mike DeWine has repeatedly said in recent months that he regrets allowing sports betting to become legalized in Ohio.
UCLA Gets $33M Grant for Youth Mental Health Training
UCLA received $33 million from Ballmer Group to expand youth mental health workforce training in Los Angeles County, aiming to produce 2,600 new graduates by 2031.
Byron Donalds: Regime change is imminent in Cuba
Amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Cuba, Donalds claims the fall of the Communist dicatorship will come as the economy worsens.
The thriving and lucrative business of antisemitism
Today’s trendy, provocative, and libelous claims against Jews have replaced the entertainment of the Roman Colosseum, where Christians were thrown to the lions for sport.
Calls grow for Rep. Swalwell to resign or be expelled over misconduct claims
Several Democratic and Republican lawmakers said they would be in favor of voting to expel Swalwell, as well as Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who both face misconduct allegations.
New report claims Microsoft is considering changing Day One access to Call of Duty on Game Pass
Microsoft is reportedly considering dropping Call of Duty from its Game Pass Day One offering.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
Fighting for health care claim approvals
How to Reclaim Your Android's Original Speed in Under 10 Minutes
Your Android is capable of a massive speed boost, and it's time you took advantage of it.
Science & Medicine: Pain researchers have their eyes on ending chronic pain
A UT Health San Antonio researcher is working to map the nerves involved in jaw pain as part of a federally funded consortium aimed at developing the first targeted, non-opioid treatment for chronic pain, research he hopes will give millions of suffering Americans their lives back and ultimately reverse or even prevent pain in the first place.
Mt. Carmel church hosts Minority Health Month men’s breakfast to raise awareness
Men gathered at Mt. Carmel Community Baptist Church on Saturday for the annual Minority Health Month Men’s Breakfast, an event aimed at raising awareness about
The Linux kernel now allows AI-written code, but you're on the hook for it
Your AI-generated code is still your code.
How aggressive breast cancer turns off the immune system
Researchers are launching a new project to crack the mystery of aggressive breast cancer, where predicting disease progression remains a major hurdle. By studying how tumors interact with and suppress the immune system, scientists aim to identify new biomarkers that reveal how the cancer evolves. Using real patient samples, the team hopes to turn earlier discoveries into practical clinical tools. The goal: more precise, personalized treatments that can outsmart even the most dangerous tumors.
iPhone Fold’s Crease-Less Display Longevity Claims Will Be Scrutinized As OPPO Find N6’s Real-World Use Exposes Its Exaggerated Marketing
An OPPO Find N6 owner exposes the device’s false crease-less claims after a month of use, bringing pressure on Apple and its iPhone Fold
Hornets aim to bounce back in season finale vs. Knicks
After clinching the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, the New York Knicks are expected to sit a number of key players in their regular-season finale against the visiting Charlotte Hornets on Sunday.
Federal judges say White House ballroom construction can continue, for now
President Donald Trump has claimed that a building pause poses a risk to national security.
'iPhone Ultra' Will Solve Two Key Problems
Apple reportedly plans to unveil a foldable iPhone in September, and the device will supposedly solve two problems with foldable smartphones. In case you missed it, a leaker on Chinese social media platform Weibo recently claimed that the foldable iPhone will be named "iPhone Ultra". According to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, the device will have improved screen quality and overall durability compared to competing foldables.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
GTA 6 Developer Rockstar Reportedly Hacked, Data Being Ransomed
Well known hacking group, ShinyHunters, claims to have breached the GTA 6 developers cloud servers
Apple iPhone Fold Design And Size Revealed In First Leaked Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
From hooves to scales: Vet Fest showcases animal science at Auburn
Auburn University’s College of Veterinary Medicine (AUVCM) hosted its third annual Vet Fest on April 11 from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. Located at their campus on Wire Road, this free, family-friendly event invites the entire Auburn community to learn and see what the college of veterinary medicine does. With plenty of educational and hands-on activities, Vet Fest aims to both educate and entertain its guests.
Americans are eating up the meat industry's health claims
Consumer appetites for protein are fueling record meat sales, raising experts’ concerns about the risk of heart disease and other illnesses.
Blake Dowling: Delilah app aims to simplify legislation, boost civic engagement
People in The Process: Legislation? There is an app for that; meet Joseph Visconti and Delilah.
Burnley XI vs Brighton – Predicted lineup and team news
Burnley host in-form Brighton today, aiming to narrow a ten-point gap to Premier League safety.The Clarets have moved closer to relegation after winning only once in 22 league games. Manager Scott Par...
Microsoft Teams is finally fixing those awkward "can you hear me?" moments
A mic test is coming soon.
ShinyHunters Claims Rockstar Games Snowflake Breach via Anodot
Follow us on Bluesky, Twitter (X), Mastodon and Facebook at @Hackread
Good Sports: Fresno City College baseball aiming for championship
It's a group the Fresno City staff has a hard time comparing to any other Rams squad, and pitching coach Eric Solberg has pretty much seen it all.
Healthdaq: Recruitment platform used by health trusts targeted by cyber attackers
Hackers claim to have stolen hundreds of thousands of files containing personal data from the platform.
The Latest Foldable iPhone Rumors: What's Changed and What We Know Now
Rumors about Apple's first foldable iPhone are picking up now that the device has entered a new testing stage that precedes mass production. If you've been having trouble keeping up with what's new, we've recapped the latest iPhone Fold rumors that have come out over the last few weeks. Naming One rumor claims Apple will call its foldable iPhone the "iPhone Ultra," which doesn't seem out of the question.
Natasha Lyonne says she took sleeping pill before being escorted off flight, claims she was 'detained' by ICE
Natasha Lyonne says she took a sleeping pill before being escorted off her recent flight to NYC and claimed that she was 'detained' by ICE afterward: 'Sign of the times, I guess.'
Laredo proclaims April Autism Awareness Month, underscores challenges
Laredo proclaimed Autism Awareness and Acceptance Month as officials, families and community members urged others to move beyond awareness and address barriers.
Epic Games Pins ‘Fortnite’ Comeback on Disney Partnership
Recent updates of the hit game have flopped. A Disney collaboration aims to turn things around.
Jury starts deliberating states’ claim that Live Nation has a monopoly on concerts and ticketing
States argue Live Nation and Ticketmaster are driving up prices to see live music.
Jury starts deliberating states' claim that Live Nation has monopoly on concerts
Soon after starting deliberations the jury in Manhattan federal court told the judge it wanted to review certain testimony given at the five-week trial
David Blitzer Expands Sports Empire With Bet On Golf’s Next Generation
Billionaire David Blitzer's Bolt Ventures has made two significant golf industry investments during Masters week aimed at the game's next generation of fans and players.
Jury starts deliberating states' claim that Live Nation has a monopoly on concerts and ticketing
Jury deliberations have begun in a civil case pitting 34 states against the concert giant Live Nation Entertainment | 1080 WTIC NEWSTALK
Jury starts deliberating states' claim that Live Nation has a monopoly on concerts and ticketing
Jury deliberations have begun in a civil case pitting 34 states against the concert giant Live Nation Entertainment. The states argue that the company and its ticketing arm, Ticketmaster, are...
Bismarck science center promoting wellness with Gateway to Health event
Bismarck locals and visitors in the area are invited to an event aiming to promote wellness. The Gateway to Science is holding its Gateway to Health event next weekend, which features more than 20 …
Unique X, Imagica Entertainment Media Services Partner to Transform Japanese Cinema Advertising Business
Digital cinema software provider Unique X and Imagica Entertainment Media Services (Imagica EMS), the market leader in Japan for post-production and media services, today announced the signing of a full long-term agreement, building upon their original Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This strategic partnership establishes a robust framework for an exclusive collaboration aimed at transforming and […]
Gadsden to invest $2.7 million in sports complex upgrades along Coosa River
Gadsden city leaders are investing millions of dollars into the city’s sports complex, with new construction aimed at expanding playing space and drawing larger