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Meet the 2026 NJBIZ Leading Women in Business
NJBIZ names more than 60 Leading Women in Business across industries, plus three Rising Stars, honoring New Jersey professionals.
PlayStation Plus Adds Massive 2025 PS5 Adventure RPG
PlayStation Plus Extra and Premium catalog has dropped the final three PS5 games for June 2026, including a 2025 open-world adventure RPG.
Meet a PhD student selected for a national Science, Mathematics, and Research for Transformation Scholarship | CWRU Newsroom
Jenna Jaklich is nearly three years away from completing her PhD program in materials science and engineering at Case Western Reserve University, but...
After Trump's re-election, these U.S. scientists found jobs in the U.K.
More U.S. scientists are heading abroad. Three researchers explain why they decided to shift their research to universities in the U.K.
Brewers' win over the Reds featured 3 desperately needed performances
Three Brewers mired in deep funks came up big to help beat the Reds on June 29 at American Family Field.
Brewers End Mini-Drought With 5-3 Win vs. Reds
Late-inning home runs from Milwaukee Brewers' Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz erased a three-run deficit, sparking a resilient offensive surge and dominant relief performance to stifle the Cincinnati Reds' divisional hopes.
Blackhawks Extend Qualifying Offers To Bedard & Three Other RFAs
Ahead of Monday’s 4:00 p.m. (CT) deadline, the Chicago Blackhawks issued qualifying offers to four of their six pending restricted […] The post Blackhawks Extend Qualifying Offers To Bedard & Three Other RFAs appeared first on Chicago Hockey Now.
Scientists say creatine may help fight depression
Creatine is best known as a muscle-building supplement, but scientists are now investigating whether it could also help treat depression by boosting the brain's energy supply. A new review examined five randomized clinical trials involving 238 participants and found mixed results. Two studies, both involving women with major depressive disorder, reported that adding creatine to standard treatment improved symptoms, while three others found no meaningful benefit.
3-star receiver Darnell Jackson Jr. commits to Utah
The Utes received their third commitment of the day as three-star Texas wide receiver Darnell Jackson Jr. announced his pledge to Utah on Wednesday.
Weston Port, three-star LB, commits to Michigan football
Three-star linebacker Weston Port committed to U-M in the class of 2027 on Monday, June 29.
Republic bakery owner loses home and business in weekend fire
A bakery and boutique that had operated in Republic for nearly three decades was destroyed by fire over the weekend, leaving its owner without her business or her home.
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
NBCUniversal may enter video game business after Comcast split, sources say
NBCUniversal is eyeing opportunities in digital gaming and new entertainment franchises as the company weighs options for future growth after its planned spinoff from Comcast , according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Exclusive-NBCUniversal May Enter Video Game Business After Comcast Split, Sources Say
By Echo Wang, Dawn Chmielewski and Milana Vinn June 29 - NBCUniversal is eyeing opportunities in digital gaming and new entertainment franchises as the company weighs options for future growth after its planned spinoff from Comcast, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Beloved gas station pizza chain CEO reveals 400-store expansion plan as food business booms
Casey's General Stores plans to add at least 400 new locations over three years while expanding its prepared food menu with wings and fries.
New estimate: Earth has 14 to 20 million insect species
For 40 years, we thought Earth was home to six million insect species. Turns out, it could be three times that.
Honeywell completes spin-off into three companies. Just one remains in Charlotte.
The three businesses separately focus on advanced materials, automation and aerospace.
Ravens Rookies Expected to Make Immediate Impact in ‘Projected Roles’
The Baltimore Ravens are known for drafting players who can make an immediate impact on the field. For example, look at Kyle Hamilton.Hamilton is already a three time All-Pro after being drafted by Baltimore in 2022. In this year’s draft class, Baltimore’s draft picks have the same potential to make an immediate impact as soon […] The post Ravens Rookies Expected to Make Immediate Impact in ‘Projected Roles’ appeared first on HEAVY.
Colorado Supreme Court: Redistricting plans for 2028 election cannot proceed under state constitution
The Colorado Supreme Court blocked all attempts at redrawing congressional district boundaries for the 2028 election from reaching the ballot on Monday, concluding each of the proposed ballot measures violated the constitutional single-subject requirement. The court considered five distinct, but related, ballot measures. Three proposals would have redrawn U.S. House of Representatives districts to give […]
Bill Maher's dire midterm election warning to Dems after 'really crazy' socialists win primaries
Bill Maher warns Democrats are 'well on their way' to blowing the midterms after three socialists won New York primaries last week.
From The Sports Desk: Canada beats South Africa in World Cup knockout: Brazil vs. Japan preview
The knockout rounds of the World Cup began with a late winner from Canada as three more matches take place today.
Princess Kate completes remarkable Three Peaks Challenge mountain climb
Princess Kate is keeping it casual while completing the Three Peaks Challenge.
Three Chiefs Land in CBS Sports Top 100 Players
Patrick Mahomes, Creed Humphrey and Chris Jones each made the list
The Dallas Teen All-Access Pass is back. Here's what it includes
The pass allows teens and up to three guests access to events and venues, from cultural centers to entertainment-oriented businesses.
America @ 250: Alex Wysocki asks, ‘Are short-term political gains worth giving up the big picture?’
Alex Wysocki is a television producer, filmmaker, husband and father of three. He and his wife Abigail moved to Champaign during the COVID-19 pandemic and are raising their family here.
Remembering Joe Delaney, 43 years after he died
24-year-old running back gave his life to try to save three children.
Wendy Schmidt: Three centuries of science is something to celebrate
George Washington Died Not Knowing Dinosaurs Existed. Three Centuries Later, Science Has Never Needed More Defense.
Wendy Schmidt: Three centuries of science is something to celebrate
George Washington Died Not Knowing Dinosaurs Existed. Three Centuries Later, Science Has Never Needed More Defense.
49ers News: Three weeks until rookies report
Your daily San Francisco 49ers news for Monday, June 29th, 2026
Sharks Sign Kesselring, How To Unlock His Potential?
The San Jose Sharks have signed Michael Kesselring. The Sharks signed the 26-year-old defenseman to a three-year, $13.5 million contract ($4.5 million AAV), buying up two of his UFA seasons. There were no trade protections. Kesselring was a pending RFA. The #SJSharks signed recently acquired 26 y/o RFA RD Michael Kesselring to 3 year $4.5M […] The post Sharks Sign Kesselring, How To Unlock His Potential? appeared first on San Jose Hockey Now.
Mariners start 3-game series against the Angels
The Seattle Mariners host the Los Angeles Angels to start a three-game series
Is this World Cup now Europe v South America? Which giants fall today? Day 18 recap
Sunday was the strangest day of this World Cup, in that there was only one match, sandwiched between days with six and three respectively. This was for scheduling reasons: no third-placed sides could have played on Sunday, given that the identity of the eight sides and their precise fixtures had only been decided on Saturday night. It would also have been impossible to organise fixtures between any other winners and runners-up while also giving them a reasonable — and relatively similar — number of days since their final group stage fixture. In the game that did happen, co-hosts Canada...
Queerying neuroscience: How legislation and institutions reframe LGBTQIA+ researchers’ careers
In honor of Pride Month, The Transmitter spoke with three researchers who surveyed hundreds of LGBTQIA+ neuroscientists to better understand how institutional support, harassment and policy intersect to shape their professional trajectories.
Caldwell University Professors Join Nationwide "Phage Hunters" Science Alliance
Caldwell, NJ – Three professors of Caldwell University’s Department of Natural Sciences, Dr. Maria Agapito, Dr. Darryl Aucoin, and Dr. Hector Loyola Irizarry, attended the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) […]
Yedsit Hazlewood, Jamie Ness Take Laurel Park Titles
While Jeiron was away, Yedsit played. After winning eight races over the past three Laurel Park cards and moving into a narrow lead in the jockey standings, red-hot Jeiron Barbosa was at Churchill Downs on Sunday to ride The Stork Club in the $225,000 Debutante Stakes. That opened the door for ...
Warriors reportedly interested in three NBA free agents as LeBron decision looms
The Golden State Warriors reportedly have their eye on several players ahead of NBA free agency.
Fifty-Three Named To CSC Academic All-District® Women’s At-Large Team
MADISON, Wis.--Fifty-three Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (WIAC) individuals have been named to the 2025-26 NCAA Division III Academic All-District® Women’s At-Large Team, selected by the College Sports Communicators
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Catherine completes Three Peaks Challenge to 'explore life beyond' cancer diagnosis
The Princess of Wales did the endurance event to raise awareness about "holistic healthcare" for cancer patients.
EXCLUSIVE: Three Candidates Vying For Global Fund Leadership In Contentious Race
As the Global Fund heads into a secretive but highly contentious election of its new Executive Director, the names of three likely US candidates have surfaced - former Global Fund Executive Director Mark Dybul, former Trump appointee William Steiger and a former NYC public health official, Ashwin Vasan.
Office Politics Has A Playbook. Here Is What Psychologists Know.
Office politics is a blood sport and the most talented people keep losing. Psychologists say three traits separate the winners from everyone else.
Three Atlanta Hawks Center Trade Targets to Watch This Offseason
The Atlanta Hawks drafted two big men but may not be done at center. Here are three Hawks center trade targets to watch this offseason.
Diamondbacks' Geraldo Perdomo: Three hits in loss
Diamondbacks' Geraldo Perdomo: Three hits in loss
Maine targets three initiatives for initial use of federal rural health funds
The Mills administration says it's decided how it will spend nearly half of the $190 million it's received this year through the federal Rural Health Transformation Fund.
Yzerman Explains Why Red Wings Left Traverse City
The post Yzerman Explains Why Red Wings Left Traverse City appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now. The Detroit Red Wings brought to a halt a nearly three-decade tradition this week. The club made the announcement that […] The post Yzerman Explains Why Red Wings Left Traverse City appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now.
Hunter Goodman smashes three home runs vs. Twins
Colorado Rockies designated hitter Hunter Goodman hit three long home runs against the Minnesota Twins on Saturday. Goodman crushed two no-doubters — solo shots in the first and third innings — in his first two at-bats against Twins starter Mike Paredes. Then, after grounding out in the fifth, Goodman came up with two runners on base and the Rockies leading 3-2 in the seventh.
Timberwolves Re-Sign Jaylen Clark to Three-Year Contract
Minnesota brings back its defensive specialist on a team-friendly deal during a summer full of roster turnover.
City of Palms new downtown parking program: How local business react to the change
The Fort Myers City Council recently approved a change impacting parking rates at all three of downtown Fort Myers' parking garages. As it stood, visitors would receive one hour of free parking followed by a hourly rate. Now, the change has made it so visitors are entitled to two free hours followed by a hourly rate. Local business owners and managers said it's a good idea giving visitors more time to bask under the royal palms and indulge in some shopping. But one general manager points out a problem that did not start yesterday, but years prior.
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Expands In Maine Online Gaming, Is The Stock Already Fully Valued?
Caesars Entertainment expands digital footprint with Wabanaki Nations partnership Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is extending its partnership with three Wabanaki Nations to include online casino gaming in Maine, targeting a potential 2026 iGaming launch, subject to regulatory approvals. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. Caesars Entertainment shares have climbed over recent months, with a 90 day share price return of 16.79% and year to date gain of 28.14%. However, the 5 year...
Austrian GP: George Russell tops Practice Three from Kimi Antonelli and Lewis Hamilton to set up thrilling qualifying
Disgraced Actor's MAGA-Coded Movie Trailer Just Dropped — And The Plot Is WILD
"Run Hide Fight: Infidels" comes almost three years after Majors’ conviction for assaulting his then-girlfriend.
Country Star Releases New Album for the First Time in Nearly Three Years
Cody Johnson returns with his first studio album in nearly three years, featuring 16 tracks and deeply personal stories inspired by his Texas roots.
Marseille look to retain three players
Get French Football News understands that every player at Olympique de Marseille – bar none – is available for the right price this summer. The club overspent under Roberto De Zerbi and the purse...
A Game Of Inches: 4 Takeaways From A Dizzying Iran-Egypt Draw
This was a pulsating game that came down to one call that flipped the knockout round fates of three teams.
‘This is a safe place.' Angel City Games celebrates adaptive sports
The three-day event at El Camino College is bringing together people of all ages and skill levels. Lolita Lopez reports for the NBC4 News at 4 p.m. on Friday, June 26, 2026.
3 flagship Android phones are cheaper now than they were on day one of Prime Day, but not for long
Prime Day is nearly over, but these three flagship Android phone deals have actually improved since the sale started.
Hightower president leaving after less than three months
Roberto Stewart, who was named president in April, had been tapped to lead the improvement of the firm's technology platform.
Uncle Julio's Fort Worth Celebrates Grand Re-Opening Weekend with Renovated Restaurant, Expanded Patio, Live Entertainment and Exclusive Offers
Uncle Julio's is welcoming guests back to its newly refreshed Fort Worth location with a three-day Grand Re-Opening celebration packed with exclusive offers,...
Trustees hear Glencoe neighbors who blast possibility of street parking near business district
Facing opposition from residents living adjacent to the Village’s business district, the Glencoe Village Board has adopted the findings of a long-in-development parking study without three areas that multiple residents spoke against during a recent Village Board meeting. In a 5-0 vote, with Trustee Dudley Onderdonk abstaining, the Glencoe Village Board on Thursday, June 18, […]
Factory Entertainment Announces Three More STAR TREK Collectibles, Including Gold-Pressed Latinum Bars
Factory Entertainment today unveiled three more STAR TREK replicas, including bars of gold-pressed latinum and Eline’s necklace from “The Inner Light”
Where QBs landed in Prisco's Top 100 NFL players of 2026, plus two notable snubs
Not only did Myles Garrett dethrone Patrick Mahomes as the No. 1 overall player, but the Chiefs star fell behind three other QBs in Prisco's 2026 list
Charles to join Circle Cinema Walk of Fame
Cherokee filmmaker Jeremy Charles will soon have his name set in concrete outside a storied movie theater with three other Oklahomans honored by the Circle Cinema for work in film
Chaotic Push to Train Staff for US Ebola Outbreak Facility Alarms Health Workers
The three-day session focused more on administrative tasks than spread prevention.
‘Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro’ needed more words to prove its power, three other flagship chips coming
Qualcomm’s Snapdragon chipset lineup is eternally confusing, with slight variations generating new names and options that aren’t all that different....
North Dakota State Fair 2026: Food, Entertainment, Pride of Dakota Festival, Contests, and More
MINOT, ND (KXNET) — There are now three weeks until this year’s North Dakota State Fair kicks off, and the Fair is including America’s 250th birthday. The fair is an official partner of…
Ben Wood, longtime three-dot columnist known as ‘Mr. Show Business,’ dies at 94
Ben Wood, a multifaceted copy editor, food and entertainment writer, and three-dot columnist for the Honolulu Star-Bulletin and Honolulu Star-Advertiser for almost 50 years, died June 19 after several years of declining health. He was 94.
SpaceX employees get rich off IPO while Blue Origin workers miss out
Three ex-employees of Jeff Bezos' rocket maker said Blue Origin's approach to equity left them with stock options that are essentially worthless.
How Outward Intelligence founders bootstrapped to seven-figure revenue
Three friends with résumés spanning Google, Palantir, and Harris Poll skipped venture capital and bootstrapped their startup instead.
Cabo Verde Is a Breakout Star of the World Cup. So Is the Family-Owned Business That Designed Its Jerseys
After more than three decades manufacturing apparel, Capelli Sport co-founder and CEO George Altirs found his company’s biggest billboard yet—3,500 miles away from his midtown Manhattan office.
Tigers host the Astros on home losing streak
The Detroit Tigers are looking to stop their three-game home slide with a victory against the Houston Astros
Three Chicago Bears make CBS Sports’ Top 100 NFL Players of 2026 List
With the NFL on a break, get ready for list season, and CBS Sports just dropped their Top 100 Players, and three Chicago Bears made the cut.
Three years of construction frustrates Marcellus businesses, residents
Shohei Ohtani Earns Three Nominations for 2026 ESPYS
Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers has redefined what a two-way player can look like in the modern era of baseball. Ohtani is coming off a 2025 season in which he won his fourth MVP and second straight World Series championship. On Thursday, ESPN announced the nominations for the 2026 ESPYS awards.
iHeart-broken: Listeners react to mass layoffs at local sports radio station
iHeart lays off radio hosts at three of its four stations in Des Moines.
Sephora CEO Guillaume Motte on Creating Demand and Scaling Desire
The beauty retailer’s chief executive spoke at day two of The Business of Beauty Global Forum about the strategies that have led to $5 billion in growth over the past three years.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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