SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " Republican " 5,466 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Republicans are torn on following Trump's lead in governor's race
Republicans have a rare, if slim shot at winning the governor’s mansion in deep blue California — but risk blowing it if they’re divided.
Jerry Demings continues to lag behind David Jolly in fundraising race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination
The former Republican has a five-to-one financial edge over the Central Florida political veteran.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
‘It’s solid gold’: Some Texas Republicans ramp up criticisms of Muslims to energize primary voters
Running in a contentious race to keep his seat, US Sen. John Cornyn put out an ad vowing to fight “radical Islam.”
For aging US Supreme Court justices, the politics of retirement looms large
When Donald Trump was asked about the prospect of conservative Justices Samuel Alito or Clarence Thomas retiring, the Republican president voiced his support for the U.S. Supreme Court's two oldest members to remain on the bench.
How Congress’s bipartisan high point led to our era of political rancor
36 years ago, a Republican president and Democratic lawmakers produced monumental laws. Now, a broken Congress has enabled Trump to undo key parts of that legacy.
Fleming, Cassidy, Letlow
Treasurer John Fleming, left, Sen. Bill Cassidy, center, and Rep. Julia Letlow, right, are all running in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.
Trump Moves Top Aide James Blair to Political Operation Ahead of Midterms
Mr. Blair will “lead the charge from the outside,” the president said on social media. The move comes as Republicans are bracing for a potentially difficult November election.
Trump Moves Top Aide James Blair to Political Operation Ahead of Midterm
Mr. Blair will “lead the charge from the outside,” the president said on social media. The move comes as Republicans are bracing for a potentially difficult November election.
DAVID MARCUS: Virginia's battle over gerrymandering betrays our broken politics
A Virginia referendum on redistricting could redraw U.S. House maps from 6-5 to 10-1 for Democrats, raising fears of disenfranchising Republicans.
Trump administration admits a glaring error in its New York health fraud accusations
The error, admitted first to the AP, prompted health analysts to question how many of the Republican administration’s sweeping anti-fraud efforts were based on faulty findings.
AP report: Trump administration admits a glaring error in its New York health fraud accusations
The error, which the administration admitted first to The Associated Press, prompted health analysts to question how many of the Republican administration’s sweeping anti-fraud efforts around the country were based on faulty findings.
North Carolina Republicans Are Trying to Give One of the Country’s Most Partisan Judges a Frightening New Power
Over the past several years, the state’s Republicans have attempted—with varying degrees of success—power grab after power grab.
Democrats blast coming congressional redistricting session: ‘This is illegal’
For now, Republicans are pushing forward.
Trump admits error in accusations about New York health care fraud
The error prompted health analysts to question how many of the Republican administration’s sweeping anti-fraud efforts around the country were based on faulty findings.
How the White House tried – and failed – to push a candidate out of a Republican state Senate primary in Indiana
With Trump’s sights set on unseating Indiana lawmakers who opposed his redistricting effort, his aides and allies feared a third candidate could play spoiler in one race.
Trump’s tenuous Iran exit plan isn't healing Republican rifts exposed by the war
President Donald Trump's efforts to exit the war in Iran are causing tension within the Republican Party | 830 WCCO
Trump’s tenuous Iran exit plan isn't healing Republican rifts exposed by the war
President Donald Trump's efforts to exit the war in Iran are causing tension within the Republican Party | KMBZ
Supreme Court blocks candidate after alleged GOP infiltration scheme exposed
The Supreme Court rejected a progressive candidate's bid to enter Ohio's Republican primary after he allegedly misrepresented party affiliation.
So When Can We Call Wisconsin a Blue State?
The state’s Republicans are in a dire situation. Let’s keep it that way.
'We got our butts kicked.' Republicans rattled by Democratic momentum ahead of midterms
Simmering discontent could boomerang on Republicans just two years after Trump harnessed voters' anger with his comeback presidential campaign.
House Republicans block Democrats' latest bid for war powers resolution
In a pro forma session in the House Thursday, GOP Speaker Pro-tem Rep. Christopher Smith didn't acknowledge Democrats' request for unanimous consent
Democrats grow bolder on talk about removing Trump from office after his Iran threats
While President Donald Trump eventually pulled back on his threat and agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, Democrats face growing demands to oppose the Republican president in the strongest possible terms.
Colorado Springs’ mayor has a new chief of staff. It’s the guy he trounced in the election.
Mayor Yemi Mobolade on Thursday named Wayne Williams his chief of staff. Williams, a Republican who is Colorado’s former secretary of state, lost to Mobolade in the 2023 mayoral election.
Republicans block Democratic bill to end Iran war amid tenuous ceasefire
Republicans in the House of Representatives blocked Democrats from considering a measure to halt military hostilities in Iran.
Republicans block effort to halt Trump's war with Iran after 'civilization' threat
House Democrats tried to force a vote on a war powers resolution during recess. Senate Democrats will launch a more serious attempt to rein in Trump when Congress returns next week.
Bondi to defy House Epstein subpoena
Democrats and some Republicans criticized Bondi for the move
Political oversight reaches Texas college classrooms, with Texas Tech and A&M at the forefront
Public universities across Texas have instituted sweeping changes to course teachings and offerings in recent months, in a bid to appease concerns from Republican lawmakers that they're indoctrinating students with what they consider to be liberal ideas.
Georgia’s 14th District runoff reveals significant shift to Democrats
A November rematch is already brewing after Republican Clay Fuller staved off Democrat Shawn Harris in Tuesday's runoff.
Rep. Seth Moulton picks: Josh Shapiro or Gavin Newsrom?
Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, who launched a primary challenge against Sen. Ed Markey to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate, answered rapid-fire questions on his decision to return money from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), his past comments about trans athletes and his stance on ICE. With the 2026 elections underway, The Post's Anna Liss-Roy is grilling candidates in races across the country, pressing Democrats and Republicans to share their takes at high-speed.
Was Waukesha mayor's race partisan? Yes, its participants say
Alicia Halvensleben, backed by Democrats, is Waukesha's new mayor. Republican State Rep. Scott Allen says he tried to keep partisanship out of it.
Business group opposes plan to replace MO income tax with sales tax
A top Missouri business group opposes a Republican plan to replace income tax with sales taxes, arguing the state is already competitive.
Ohio Republican lawmakers proposed major new sports betting restrictions
Three Ohio Republican lawmakers are introducing legislation to place “guardrails” on the state’s sports betting system, including stopping online/phone gambling, limits on wagers, banning the use of credit for betting, and limiting advertisement.
Democrats fighting for Iowa Senate seat tussle over Chuck Schumer and super PACs
The primary fight between state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls has emerged as a key race to watch, with Republicans ready to spend to defend the seat this fall.
Republican tells Trump to stop ‘nursing grudges’ as he complains NATO ‘wasn’t there when we needed them’
Trump suggested the U.S. may consider leaving the trans-Atlantic alliance.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy on American Politics and the GOP
Former U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy participates in a discussion on the state of American politics and the Republican party at a forum hosted by The John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum at Harvard University.
Ohio legislation would require in-person sports betting, ban parlays and prop bets
Republicans in the Ohio Statehouse have proposed a pair of bills that would limit which kinds of sports bets could be placed and would eliminate mobile betting, requiring all wagers to be placed in…
'Instagram king' Dan Bilzerian jumps into race against Randy Fine, controversy follows
His history of antisemitism includes calling the Republican incumbent a "fat Jew."
Another Big Night for Democrats: Tuesday’s Wisconsin and Georgia Results
Democrats enjoyed another double-digit victory in a Wisconsin state Supreme Court race; their win will expand the liberal majority on the body to 5-2. Meanwhile, Republicans held GA-14, although it made for another Democratic overperformance.
The Metro: Trust in elections is declining. A Michigan Republican clerk blames politics
Ottawa County Clerk Justin Roebuck spoke with Robyn Vincent about election security, how he sees the SAVE act and more.
Jacksonville Bold for 4.8.26: Learning from mistakes
Republicans regroup for Jacksonville Mayor race as campaign season intensifies.
Wisconsin Democrats pull off a stunning election performance
Wisconsin's Supreme Court election result provided good news for Democrats and bad news for Republicans.
Live updates: Democrats demand Trump's ouster; Republicans win Georgia special election
Get live updates and the latest news as Democrats demand Trump's removal, Republicans win Georgia's special election, and Wisconsin Democrats expand their majority on the state Supreme Court
Impatient Iowa landowners pressure Senate to hold eminent domain vote
Iowa landowners are putting pressure on Senate Republican leaders to hold a vote on legislation restricting eminent domain for carbon pipelines.
Georgia, Wisconsin Elections Show Declining Appetite for Republican Candidates
A Republican won Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat, but Democrats shifted the district 25 points to the left since the 2024 presidential race. Conservative candidates lost in Wisconsin, too.
SC Democrats want to break GOP supermajority in House. Can they swing 6 seats?
South Carolina Republican lawmakers dominate both chambers, allowing them to pass laws without support from the other parties. Will Democratic candidates upset the supermajority this year?
Alex Vindman internal poll shows him within striking distance of Ashley Moody
The Republican incumbent remains largely unknown to voters, according to a PPP survey.
SC GOP, Democratic gubernatorial candidates make pitch to business leaders at bipartisan forum
Democratic and Republican candidates for South Carolina governor made their pitches to members of the state’s business community Tuesday night at a bipartisan forum held at the University of South Carolina’s Darla Moore School of Business.
Republican wins runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress
Republican Clay Fuller, a former prosecutor endorsed by President Donald Trump, on Tuesday won a runoff election in Georgia to replace conservative firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Cook Political Report shifts 5 House races toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted five House races toward Democrats and one toward Republicans, as the minority party seeks to take back control of the House in the November midterms. Th…
Republican wins runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress
Clay Fuller, a district attorney backed by President Donald Trump, defeated Shawn Harris in the deeply red district vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Election 2026 Georgia
Republican candidate Clay Fuller smiles as election results roll in during an election night watch party, Tuesday, April 7, 2026, in Ringgold, Ga. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)
Cook Political Report's New York U.S. House race ratings unchanged from January
Cook still only labels one race a true "tossup" — Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in the 17th Congressional District.
Live Results: Georgia special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene
Republican Clay Fuller will try to close the deal with Georgia voters on Tuesday to succeed Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress, while Democrat Shawn Harris seeks an upset.
Yarbrough speaks with Lone Star Politics after opponent in TX-32 ends campaign for GOP nomination
After businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley ends his campaign for the GOP nomination in the 32nd Congressional District, Trump-endorsed Jace Yarbrough will take on the Democrat in the November election. The newly-drawn district was designed to favor Republicans by state lawmakers. Yarbrough takes questions from Lone Star Politics about his conservative views and his priorities if elected to office.
Dallas State Senator Nathan Johnson talks about his run for Texas Attorney General
Texas Senator Nathan Johnson, D – Dallas, is running against former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski in the May 26th primary runoff election after neither candidate received fifty percent of the vote. The winner will take on whoever wins the Republican nominee in November; either Texas State Senator Mayes Middleton, R – Galveston, or Congressman Chip Roy, R – Austin.
This GOP candidate seized a half-million ballots and says he may do it again
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is running for California governor as a Republican, tried to review ballots despite election officials reaffirming the results.
MAGA Is Winning Its War Against U.S. Science
Source: NBER With all the other terrible news right now, you may not have noticed that Donald Trump is in the process of killing American science. OK, that’s an exaggeration — but not that much of an exaggeration. The Trump administration’s latest budget proposal calls for a gigantic increase in military spending combined with severe cuts to social programs. But as the chart above shows, it also calls for debilitating reductions in research funding. Furthermore, Trump appointees have already been strangling science by sharply reducing the rate at which research grants are approved. Here, for example, is the number of new grants approved by the National Science Foundation: Source: Nature Large numbers of existing grants have also been frozen or terminated, especially in the study of infectious diseases. Add to this a sharp drop in visas issued to foreign students, who often play a direct role in research and who help support academic departments that do research: Put all of this together, and much U.S. scientific research is set to come to a screeching halt — not a few years from now, but over the course of the next year or two. This new assault on U.S. science is taking place at a time when the role of American science in the world has already been greatly eroded. The chart below, based on research recently reported by the National Bureau of Economic Research, measures national strength in science by the share of publications in highly ranked journals. In the 1990s the United States had more such publications than the rest of the world combined. Since then we’ve dropped into third place — well behind China and slightly below the European Union. And this was before the Trump administration’s attack on science had time to take its full effect. Source Some erosion in U.S. scientific preeminence was inevitable given China’s growing sophistication and wealth. But we’ve also fallen behind Europe, even though everyone says that Europe is lagging economically and technologically. Claims about Europe’s underperformance are, in fact, dubious if one looks hard at the data. But it’s still striking to see America lagging. What’s going on? There are presumably multiple factors behind America’s scientific lag. But even before Trump II the growing hostility of the U.S. right to science surely had some negative effect. And since the rise of MAGA G.O.P. attitudes toward science in general have become overwhelmingly hostile. This is true even for the Republican rank and file: And while I haven’t been able to find good survey data, it’s obvious that the anti-science turn has been even more pronounced — and began earlier — among the Republican political elite. Chris Mooney published The Republican War on Science in 2005, and even then was describing a longstanding trend. Why have Republicans turned so anti-science? Part of the answer is that they believe that scientists don’t support them. And they’re right! A study of who scientists give money to shows that only a small percentage gave money to Republicans even 20 years ago, and that almost none of them donate to Republicans now: Social scientists have always been strongly pro-Democratic, while there used to be a significant number of physical, “hard” scientists supporting the GOP. But these days physicists are almost as uniformly Democratic, or at least non-Republican, as sociologists. Why are there almost no Republican scientists? It’s not a mystery. GOP political orthodoxy includes positions that are at odds with the scientific consensus on multiple issues, ranging from the validity of the theory of evolution, to the reality of climate change, to the efficacy and safety of vaccines. In each case the scientific consensus is solidly grounded in evidence. But even before the rise of MAGA the U.S. right was increasingly hostile to evidence-based policymaking — especially, of course, where the evidence is unfavorable to fossil fuel interests or quack medicine, both financial mainstays of right-wing politics. So scientists don’t support Republicans, and the feeling is mutual. Today’s Republican Party doesn’t like science or scientists. It doesn’t like having its preconceived views challenged by appeals to evidence. It knows that very few scientists are on its side electorally. In general, it sees scientific research as a threat to its grasp on political power. Add in MAGA’s combination of rabid anti-intellectualism and allergy to any hint of criticism, and one has the makings of a drastic anti-science turn in policy. “Ignorance is strength” might was well be an official MAGA motto. And as I said, we aren’t talking about something that will happen over the course of multiple years: The U.S. scientific enterprise is threatened with severe damage, even collapse, over just the next year. There are many reasons to find this prospect horrifying: Think of all the beneficial advances, affecting almost every part of life, that won’t happen because U.S. science — still crucial to the world — has been eviscerated. But think, also, of America’s international standing. Can a nation that has forfeited its role as a leader, or even a contender, in global science, still be a Great Power? No. MUSICAL CODA
Georgia Runoff Puts Trump Influence to the Test in MAGA Stronghold
By Nathan Layne April 7 (Reuters) - Voters in northwest Georgia go to the polls on Tuesday in a congressional race between a moderate Democrat and a Republican backed by President Donald Trump, in a test of Trump's sway over his base and a possible barometer for the November midterms. The two-way ...
GOP War on Health Care Destroying Hospitals at Home and Abroad
More than 800 health care facilities are at risk or have already closed since Republicans severely cut funding last year. The worst is still ahead.
Infighting among Knox County Republican operatives lands in DA's office
Tennessee election officials say prosecutors should take a look at a mailer from GOP donor Scott Davis criticizing Erik Wiatr.
‘No Labels’ Arizona Wants to Rebrand as the Independent Party
Both the Democratic and Republican parties in Arizona have been locked in a legal battle with a chapter of the group “No Labels” as it tries to rechristen itself.
The Democrat vying to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene faces a tall task, but Republicans are still watching closely
A Democrat’s bid to pull off a major upset Tuesday in former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s ruby-red Georgia district will be closely watched by national Republicans trying to maintain a razor-thin House majority.
Democrats see gas prices as potent line of attack on campaign trail
Republicans won in 2024 by promising to cut the cost of living, but now high gas prices caused by the Iran war are frustrating voters.
Is David Jolly riding an off-shore blue wave? His Q1 fundraising suggests momentum is building
Jolly still trails Republican Byron Donalds — by a lot — but he has upped his game since 2 surprise Special Election victories.
Georgia congressional election pits Trump-backed Clay Fuller against Shawn Harris
Republican Clay Fuller faces Democrat Shawn Harris in a special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress
San Antonio Express-News: Rep. Gonzales allegedly sent lewd texts to campaign staffer in 2020
Texas Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales is facing new allegations he sent a former campaign staffer lewd texts, just weeks after revelations of his affair with another former employee rocked and ultimately ended his reelection bid.
3 Things to Know: Brands and Social Issues, Adult Recreational Sports League Participation Rebounds, and Sports Betting Partnerships
CivicScience has the world’s largest proprietary database of real-time declared intent, allowing brands to activate high-performing advertising that drives up to 80% better performance. See how our partners achieve superior marketing outcomes here. 1. Consumers hold mixed expectations on brand activism, with Democrats more likely to switch or boycott based on personal values, while Republicans [...]Read More... from 3 Things to Know: Brands and Social Issues, Adult Recreational Sports League Participation Rebounds, and Sports Betting Partnerships
Emily Gregory to be sworn in for HD 87 seat Tuesday at Palm Beach Gardens City Hall
It caps a first-time-this-century victory in a traditionally Republican district that will be back on the ballot in November.
Trump endorses ex-UK political strategist Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton, who advised the former prime minster and hosted a Fox News show, is running as a Republican.
Meet Steve Hilton, the Former U.K. Political Strategist Trump Is Endorsing for California Governor
Hilton is one of two Republican candidates in a highly competitive race to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
What to expect in Georgia's special congressional runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene
Democrat Shawn Harris and Republican Clay Fuller were the top two vote-getters in the March 10 special election, but neither candidate received the vote majority needed to avoid Tuesday's runoff.
Republican group to spend $45M to help Rogers win Michigan Senate race
A national Republican group said it’s dumping $45 million into Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race as an initial investment to help ex-Rep. Mike Rogers.
CNN will host a California gubernatorial primary debate on May 5
CNN will host a California gubernatorial primary debate next month, a potential inflection point in a crowded campaign that Democrats are concerned could provide an opening for Republicans.
Column: Trump's cries of cheating on mail-in ballots defy logic
President Trump and MAGA Republicans are hallucinating or outright lying about widespread election fraud.
Democrats are eager to flip Issa’s seat. But his Republican successor is a ‘formidable opponent’
Leading Democrats are throwing personal jabs to distinguish themselves in a crowded primary for the competitive district that could tilt who controls Congress.
Republican Clay Fuller under pressure in Georgia race to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene
The special election runoff between Republican Clay Fuller and Democrat Shawn Harris is being watched by both parties as they consider strategy ahead of the midterms.
How the Internet Fringe Infiltrated Republican Politics
Inside the battle for the post-MAGA G.O.P.
Inside Jim Jordan’s quiet preparations for a GOP leadership void
The Ohio Republican will be well-situated if Republicans lose the House majority.
Trump endorses Republican Steve Hilton in California governor’s race
President Donald Trump has thrown his support behind Republican Steve Hilton in the California governor’s race, potentially shaking up a crowded race to replace outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Threats inside and out loom for Colorado’s Republicans
Colorado Republicans made strides in 2024 despite an insidious state chairman who tried to defeat successful Republican candidates. Newly elected U.S. Reps. Gabe Evans, Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank fought off unethical opposition from their own state party chairman, making the Colorado congressional delegation a 4-4 partisan split. Strong state legislative leadership resulted in the […]
Is it time for both parties to bail on Colorado’s political nominating system?
Cracks are beginning to appear in Colorado’s political nominating system. Recently, Mario Nicolais, a formerly Republican-leaning pundit, and Doug Friednash, former Democratic legislator, have opined regarding the imminent demise of the caucus/assembly framework which controls partisan candidate selection. There has always been a legal detour around this process whereby candidates petition directly onto the ballot. […]
Bhatti: Republicans must restore, strengthen health care after gutting it
Michigan doctors worry about healthcare cuts by Trump and Republicans, impacting Medicaid and low-income families.
Opinion: Why Alaska may point to the future of independent politics
Rather than labeling themselves as independents in protest of dysfunctional Republicans and Democrats, the title now stands for pragmatism and common-sense.
Democrats, Republicans Clash Over Iran War in Week 6
A swing-district Republican called the war an “incredible operation,” and President Trump drew backlash from political figures in both parties over a social media post.
Republicans who want to opt out of Colorado’s primaries get major boost from federal judge’s ruling
The judge ruled the requirement that 75% of the Colorado GOP or the Colorado Democratic Party must support opting out of the primaries before it can happen “constitutes a severe burden on the major parties’ right to association and is therefore unconstitutional."
Politics: Iowa Senate Republicans release FY2027 budget proposal
Iowa Senate Republicans last week announced their proposed budget for the coming fiscal year; it comes in at about $100 million below Gov. Kim Reynolds’ budget, which was released at
Democrats eye 2028 for bigger health care push
WASHINGTON – As Democrats vie to take control of Congress in the midterms this fall, their main message on health care policy is fairly straightforward: undo Republicans’ Medicaid cuts and restore the health care subsidies that lapsed at the end of last year.
Politics Unplugged (Full Episode) April 5, 2026
This week on Politics Unplugged, State Rep. Alexander Kolodin explains why he is running for the Republican nomination for Secretary of State. Then, consultants Marcus Dell’Artino and Adam Kinsey break down the latest Presidential approval polls and the candidates for governor debating whether to eat a taco on camera.
White House denies Trump is in the hospital as new health rumors explode
The White House has denied that President Trump visited Walter Reed National Military Medical Center as the Republican president's health has been a major focal point of his second term
White House denies Trump is in the hospital as new health rumors explode
The White House has denied that President Trump visited Walter Reed National Military Medical Center as the Republican president's health has been a major focal point of his second term
These Republicans running for Oregon governor are raising the most money, readying TV ad blitz
The eventual winner can expect an uphill battle in the fall against incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek.
A Nebraska hospital in peril shows how a Republican-led rural health fund is coming up short
It's a problem that millions of Americans in rural areas are awakening to as they realize there's no windfall coming for the vulnerable hospitals near their homes.
Legislator calls for Albany County to drop sales tax on clothing, footwear
Republican Mark Grimm is introducing legislation to cut the county sales tax on purchases of clothing and shoes costing less than $110 per item.
Idaho Democratic leaders say Republican-led cuts are an ‘unbelievable mess’
Senate and House minority leaders railed against their Republican colleagues at a news conference following the end of the legislative session.
New CNN poll shows Democrats up big heading into midterm election season. Can Republicans claw back to avoid a blue wave?
What Trump's Iran war means for Republicans ahead of midterms
This is not the run-up to the midterm elections that Republicans wanted.
Trump asks Congress to supersize military budget, slash domestic programs
The president’s fiscal 2027 budget request calls for Republicans to use a partisan process for enacting billions for the Pentagon.
Poll: Dems on statewide ballot lead in Palm Beach, buoyed by disdain for Donald Trump
Republicans easily carried HD 87 in 2024, but the pendulum appears to have swung
How gender-affirming care is becoming a political test for top medical groups
The country’s largest organization representing doctors is being pressed by Republican attorneys general on health care for trans youth.