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Mike White's Prep Talk: 10 questions with Hopewell's James Armstrong, three-sport standout and future major-college QB
James Armstrong has this belief that playing sports gives him peace. Well, then Armstrong lives in almost total peace. If high school sports were on a...
On this Jackie Robinson Day, reject this lie Major League Baseball tells about itself
Kevin B. Blackistone: Sports are not a driver of social change
English still dominates science, but its share fell from 94% to 85%
In 2023, about 85% of the roughly five million articles indexed in major global databases covering the natural, medical and social sciences were written in English. In 1990, the proportion was considerably ...
Americans stand out internationally for their pessimism about the nation’s political system
People in higher-income countries are generally less likely to say their nation’s political system needs major changes or complete reform. Americans are an exception.
Jackie Robinson Day: Dodgers' Legend's MLB Career By The Numbers
It's Jackie Robinson Day in Major League Baseball! Here's the Brooklyn Dodgers' legend's MLB career by the numbers.
ETSU renaming sports complex after major partnership
East Tennessee State University’s Campus Recreation Field Complex is getting a new name and a significant investment in student recreation facilities.
Time 100 list 2026: An exclusive look at the stars who made the cut
Time magazine has unveiled its annual Time 100 list, and USA TODAY has an exclusive sneak peek at the major stars who were selected.
UK fund major L&G aims to double Asia business, CEO says
Britain's biggest asset manager Legal & General aims to double its assets under management in Asia to around $500 billion amid its push to grow its international business, CEO Antonio Simoes told Reuters on Monday.
See how LSU’s coastal environmental science major produces successful graduates
The LSU Olinde Career Center’s outcomes data for last year’s undergraduate class revealed high starting salaries and an increased positive outcome rate for coastal environmental sciences. A positive outcome means a graduate has secured an opportunity such as employment or admission to graduate school within six months of graduating. CES graduates had a positive outcome...
CMAT came to Coachella with politics on her mind and an Irish dance step for California
Irish country-pop star CMAT made her Coachella debut after achieving major fame at home, bringing her blend of American cultural obsession and Irish identity to California crowds.
GOP faces rising political tides on Iran, affordability in midterm year
Republicans are facing an increasingly difficult political environment in a midterm election year where their majorities in the House and Senate are on the line. The Iran war has been a drag on Pre…
Labour claims Reform UK won’t protect women, as poll suggests Farage’s party heading for ‘seismic’ wins in May
Poll projects major political earthquake across Britain with Labour losing Wales and England’s Red Wall
American sports fans leave the global spectacle to everyone else
US sports travelers are equally willing to travel for regular season and playoff matches (41% each), outpacing worldwide fans by double digits on both. However, they trail global travelers by 18 points on major single-sport international events (21% vs. 39%), according to a December 2025 survey from YouGov.
SB 1397: Better Science = Better Policy
Managing California’s majestic mountain lion population, particularly in areas of conflict with areas where humans...
95% of people carry this virus and scientists may have just found how to stop it
Scientists have taken a major step toward stopping Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), an extremely common infection linked to cancer and chronic disease. By using mice engineered with human antibody genes, researchers created powerful human-like antibodies that block the virus from attaching to and entering immune cells. One of these antibodies completely prevented infection in lab models with human immune systems, marking a breakthrough after years of difficulty tackling EBV’s ability to invade nearly all B cells.
Graphene just defied a fundamental law of physics
In a major breakthrough, scientists have observed electrons in graphene flowing like a nearly frictionless liquid, defying a core law of physics. This exotic quantum state not only reveals new fundamental behavior but could also unlock powerful future technologies.
2026 RBC Heritage odds, picks, field, date: Surprising PGA predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the RBC Heritage 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA picks for Hilton Head
Gov. Spanberger visits the Valley to support business investments, I-81 widening
Gov. Abigail Spanberger made her way to the Shenandoah Valley on Tuesday morning, with stops around Harrisonburg and Rockingham County highlighting major investments, a local business expansion and the kickoff of a long-awaited widening project on Interstate 81.
Trump again rejects Colorado amid accusations of playing politics with disaster aid
FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) — President Donald Trump has again denied a request from Colorado's governor to help people affected by wildfires and flooding, consistent with his approval of major disaster aid to Republican-leaning states at about twice the rate he approves aid requests from Democratic...
How Canada’s Carney Used His Political Savvy to Win a Majority
In six months, the prime minister orchestrated the defection of five lawmakers to his side and won a special election.
Explore Purdue’s integrated business and engineering major
Nicole Welsh knows that progress is possible when business-minded and engineering-minded people work together.
‘A great fight town.’ UFC returns to Philly as latest major sports event planned for 2026
UFC 330 will be the MMA promotion’s first event in the city since 2019, and the first “numbered” event here since 2011.
The Kennedy Center wants to show that the building really needs a renovation
The Kennedy Center's new president, Matt Floca, is leading tours to show the building's need for major repairs | 830 WCCO
Some people don’t lose weight with GLP-1s. Evidence is building that the drugs are helping anyway
The majority of people who start taking GLP-1 medicines with the hope of losing weight, the drugs can quiet cravings and help them shed stubborn pounds. But research is also continuing to reveal GLP-1 medicines’ benefits independent of weight loss — even if people gain weight.
Millions of Rockstar Games Business Records Stolen, Hacking Group Says
A hacking group with a history of compromising major global corporations said it had stolen nearly 80 million business records from video game developer
2026 RBC Heritage odds, picks, field, date: Surprising PGA predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the RBC Heritage 2026 10,000 times and revealed golf picks for Hilton Head
Major gift promises to accelerate Princeton University’s leadership in quantum science
The gift from Andy Florance ’86 and Heather Florance will support the Princeton Quantum Initiative and will accelerate the next generation of quantum science research and discovery at the University.
These 8 prep baseball players in New Orleans have taken major leaps this season
Several New Orleans area prep baseball have taken the next step during the 2026 season.
The Pixel 10 is getting a major security boost you'll never actually see
Google is bringing memory-safe Rust code to the Pixel 10 modem to protect users from remote hacking and memory-safety vulnerabilities.
Big Money Is Betting on Bagels
High-quality bagels were once the sole domain of a few major cities. Investors believe they can take the breakfast staple nationwide.
Italy's surprise rise in exports to US masks deep fragility to tariffs
Italy was the only major EU country whose exports to the United States grew last year despite Donald Trump's tariffs. The result was hailed by Rome's government, but a closer look at the data shows one-off factors at play and little underlying resilience.
TPG Agrees to Buy Learfield in Deal Worth Roughly $2 Billion
Learfield’s majority owners—Charlesbank Capital Partners and funds managed by Fortress Investment Group—hired two banks in the fall to explore a sale.
College sports giant Learfield finalizing sale to private equity firm
Learfield, a leading college sports multimedia rights and technology firm, is finalizing a deal to sell a majority stake to private equity firm TPG.
Carney didn’t win a majority, he built one. Now comes the test.
Now that Canada's prime minister has control of Parliament, here's what he's going to do with it.
Canada’s Carney Secures Majority Mandate After Electoral Wins, Political Defections
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has secured a majority government, cementing his hold on power after electoral victories Monday night and defections to his Liberal Party caucus over the past six months.
Portland Lawmaker Wants to Majorly Turn Up the Dial on Forced Mental Health and Addiction Treatment
“If someone is in the fentanyl fold out on the streets, they are not living their best life,” state Sen. Lisa Reynolds says.
Millions of Rockstar Games business records stolen, hacking group says
A hacking group with a history of compromising major global corporations said it had stolen nearly 80 million records from video game developer Rockstar Games, the maker of Grand Theft Auto.
Allegheny Health Network and UPMC to have major presence for NFL draft in Pittsburgh
Blurry iPhone Text Picture Problem: Is There An Easy Solution I'm Missing?
I use my iPhone for all my pictures of airlines and hotels. It serves me well, with one major issue... is there something I'm missing?
Thunder Over Louisville returns Saturday after 2025 cancellation, bringing crowds and business boost
After being canceled last year because of flooding, Thunder Over Louisville is back this weekend, and organizers expect a major turnout.
House eyes possible expulsion of multiple members as it returns to Washington
Both parties appear to be factoring in the razor-thin majority that Republicans hold in the chamber as they weigh whether to oust members.
Building Your Own Major: Helmhold ’27 Connects Sports and Psychology Through Communication
Helmhold created an Interdisciplinary Studies major focused on communication strategies in athletics.
Swimming becomes the first major Olympic sport to lift restrictions on Russian athletes
The governing body for international swimming and aquatic sports will allow athletes from Russia to compete without restrictions and with their national flag and anthem.
Dallas ISD voters to decide largest school bond in state history
On May 2nd, voters living in Dallas ISD will decide whether to pay $33 more a year in property taxes to pay for a $6.2 billion bond package. The plan would build 26 new schools and make major upgrades to facilities and technology at every campus. Lone Star Politics speaks with Miguel Solis, former President of DISD Board of Trustees and now the President of the Commit Partnership.
Cook Political Report shifts four Senate races toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races to the left on Monday but noted that the GOP is still favored to maintain its majority in the upper chamber this November. “With an increasingly…
Sources: Mavs dismiss director of health in another shake-up
The Dallas Mavericks have dismissed director of health and performance Johann Bilsborough on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive year that the franchise has made major changes in that department.
Fluoride in drinking water has no effect on IQ or brain function, major study shows
The new research is the first to measure community water fluoridation exposure during childhood in the U.S. and any potential impact on cognition up to age 80.
Utah Royals FC Welcomes Dave Tenney as Senior Director of Player Health and Performance
HERRIMAN, Utah (Monday, April 13, 2026) – Utah Soccer President of Soccer Operations Jason Kreis - overseeing Utah Royals FC (National Women’s Soccer League), Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer), Real Monarchs (MLS NEXT Pro) and the RSL Academy - has named highly-respected sports medicine veteran Dave Tenney as the
Scholarships support rising stars of science
Two UVA students – a neuroscience major and a materials engineering major – received Goldwater Scholarships.
Microsoft reveals major price increases for all Surface PCs as RAM crisis continues: Flagships now $500 more expensive than at launch
Microsoft is raising prices on all its current Surface PC offerings, with the midrange devices now starting at above $1,000, and flagships starting at $1,500.
Paul Renner calls for Obamacare repeal before GOP loses control of Congress
'We may not have a majority.'
Biggest US airline adds support for iOS 26 boarding passes in Wallet
All four major US airlines now support Apple Wallet's new boarding pass features. Here's how they work in iOS 26 on iPhone.
Colorado leaders warn of a "deteriorating" business climate
The ad-hoc organization, Ensuring Colorado's Innovation Future, cites Palantir's relocation as a major concern.
Julie’s new AI chatbot aims to fix a major gap in women’s health information
The emergency contraception brand is using a chatbot to answer the questions Gen Z is already asking online.
Who is Peter Magyar, Hungary’s new leader who trounced Viktor Orban?
Magyar's centre-right Tisza Party has won a two-thirds majority in Hungary's parliamentary elections.
Column | Where have all the computer science majors gone?
Computer science has been one of the hottest college majors for 15 years. Enrollment data suddenly shows a big drop.
How To Understand Frontline, Diplomacy and Society in Iran
The ‘silent majority’ in Iran is not a passive bystander. Urban and university-educated groups are taking a stand against the war.
From Vision to Reality: Sports Complex Initiative Takes Center Stage at April Greenville-Pitt Power Luncheon
A major community initiative is coming into focus this April, and local leaders will have a front-row seat to the conversation. Andrew Schmidt, President &
Watch: As AI Makes More Health Coverage Decisions, The Risks To Patients Grow
This year, executives from nearly every major health insurance company made the same declaration in calls with Wall Street analysts: Using artificial intelligence to make coverage decisions would help save them money.
The Message Man: Ferraro Award Winner Matt Corridoni ’13 Helps Political Campaigns Connect
Forty years after Geraldine Ferraro ’56 became the first woman nominated for vice president by a major political party, Kamala Harris mounted her own ba...
Tested: Windows 11 just fixed slow storage management and removed a 30-year FAT32 limit
Windows 11 improves storage performance and removes FAT32 32GB limit. Disk properties now load faster in latest Insider builds.
The Masters: Rory McIlroy defends title and makes more major history after thrilling one-shot win at Augusta National
Is Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Offering Value After Recent Share Price Swings?
If you are wondering whether Caesars Entertainment at US$26.88 is a bargain or a value trap, the key is understanding what you are really paying for today. The stock is up 1.3% over the last week and 14.1% year to date, but that sits alongside a 4.2% decline over the last month and longer term returns of 6.1% over 1 year, 38.2% over 3 years and 71.3% over 5 years. Those mixed returns sit against a backdrop of ongoing attention on Caesars Entertainment as a major US gaming and hospitality...
How Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Narratives Are Shifting As Analysts Recut Targets And Takeover Nears
Golden Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been nudged from US$30.50 to US$30.00 per share, a small adjustment that still keeps the story focused around a US$30 mark. Some analysts view this US$0.50 trim as an incremental shift that reflects updated valuation inputs rather than a major change in the underlying outlook, while more cautious voices see it as a signal of reduced conviction at recent prices. As you read on, you will see how this updated target fits into the evolving analyst...
TST Best Bets: April 12, 2026
The day has come for the NBA’s 82-game regular season to come to an end, as all 30 teams play in their last contest of the season on Sunday with the final chance to lock in their postseason seeding. With the majority of the seeding locked up at the top of both conferences, the Eastern Conference’s lower rung will provide most of the excitement on the final slate, as seeds 5-10 are all yet to be decided. But the most consequential unresolved race impacting who will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy
CVS Health Corporation (CVS): Legal Clarity and Core Strengths Support the Bull Case
CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) is one of the undervalued large cap stocks to buy. On March 25, UBS analyst Kevin Caliendo reiterated a Buy rating and $97 price target on CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS). Caliendo said that CVS’s proposed settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over insulin pricing could lift a major cloud that […]
Commissioner Bill Canda created septic business to evade taxes
Thanks to a miscommunication in March between the Custer County Sheriff’s Office and the 12th Judicial District Attorney’s Office in Alamosa, the majority of the Colorado Bureau of Investigation (CBI) inquiry into Custer County Commissioner Bill Canda for alleged sales tax fraud was made public. The
The Masters 2026 - final round LIVE! Latest updates, highlights, scores as Rory McIlroy chases major victory at Augusta National
Rory McIlroy looks to become first back-to-back winner of The Masters since Tiger Woods; coverage is live from 4.30pm on Sky Sports Golf, with Featured Groups, Featured Holes and extra coverage on Sky Sports+
Why Bill Moos is fed up with major college sports
Bill Moos, former player, coach and athletic director of some of the country’s past and present powerhouses, has seen the future of college athletics and is glad he retired to 63 acres near Spokane.
2026 Masters odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions into Round 4 by golf model that nailed 16 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the final round of the Masters 10,000 times and revealed golf picks for Augusta National
2026 Masters tee times, pairings: Complete schedule, groups, field for Round 4 on Sunday at Augusta National
The quest to win the first major championship of 2026 continues on Saturday at Augusta National Golf Club with Rory McIlroy well out in front
How aggressive breast cancer turns off the immune system
Researchers are launching a new project to crack the mystery of aggressive breast cancer, where predicting disease progression remains a major hurdle. By studying how tumors interact with and suppress the immune system, scientists aim to identify new biomarkers that reveal how the cancer evolves. Using real patient samples, the team hopes to turn earlier discoveries into practical clinical tools. The goal: more precise, personalized treatments that can outsmart even the most dangerous tumors.
Life on Mars? Tiny cells just survived shock waves and toxic soil
Mars may be hostile, but it might not be entirely unlivable. In lab experiments, yeast cells survived simulated Martian shock waves and toxic perchlorate salts—two major environmental threats on the Red Planet. Their secret weapon was forming protective molecular clusters that shield critical cellular functions under stress. Without these defenses, survival plummeted, pointing to a potential universal strategy life could use beyond Earth.
The Universe is expanding too fast and scientists still can’t explain it
A major international effort has produced an ultra-precise measurement of the Universe’s expansion rate, confirming it’s faster than early-Universe models predict. By linking multiple distance-measuring techniques, scientists ruled out simple errors as the cause of the discrepancy. The persistent “Hubble tension” now looks more real than ever. It could mean our current model of the cosmos is incomplete.
China's K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of one of the group's biggest fan bases comes as no surprise. In fact, just the opposite would have…
State floats major mental health funding shift that could jeopardize North Bay mobile crisis teams
The proposed shift would shoulder counties with as much as $130 million annually to sustain the programs. For many, it would open a gap they can’t fill.
Heat, Hawks clash with major playoff implications
Heat, Hawks clash with major playoff implications
College basketball transfer portal tracker: Fit grades for every top commitment from the 2026 cycle
Tracking and grading the major commitments as the 2026 college basketball transfer portal season heats up
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid Iran war fallout
Iraq's parliament voted Saturday to elect Nizar Amidi as president, five months after a parliamentary election that didn't produce a decisive majority.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid war fallout
BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraq’s parliament voted Saturday to elect Nizar Amidi, a political official with one of the country’s two main Kurdish parties, as president, five months after a parliamentary election that didn’t produce a bloc with a decisive majority.
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid war fallout
Iraq’s parliament has elected Nizar Amidi as president, five months after elections failed to produce a decisive majority. The vote took place Saturday.
Max Muncy, high-octane Dodgers set for rematch vs. Rangers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the first 10-win team in the majors, and they largely have gotten there with a potent offense.
Major Wolverhampton genetics study targets community health gaps
A study invites Pakistani and Bangladeshi residents in Wolverhampton to help improve health care.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
Two simple eating habits linked to lower weight, study finds
A major study suggests that when you eat could play a key role in staying lean. People who fast longer overnight and start their day with an early breakfast were more likely to have a lower BMI years later. Scientists think this is because eating earlier aligns better with the body’s internal clock. But skipping breakfast as part of intermittent fasting didn’t offer the same advantage—and may even be tied to unhealthy habits.
Mike Johnson, Steve Scalise face a long, difficult to-do list as Congress returns
WASHINGTON — U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise return to Capitol Hill Monday afternoon after a two-week Easter break with a long list of “must
Dozens of hidden lakes discovered beneath Arctic glaciers in Canada
Researchers have uncovered the locations of 37 subglacial lakes in Canada’s Arctic, 35 of them discovered for the very first time — what could be a major scientific breakthrough in understanding the quickly-warming region.
Barcelona face major setback in race for teenage midfield sensation
According to SPORT, Barcelona are closely monitoring Kennet Eichhorn, a highly-rated 16-year-old currently developing at Hertha Berlin. The youngster has emerged as one of the most promising midfield...
Women's basketball transfer portal tracker: Latest news as Audi Crooks, other big names look for new teams
We're keeping tabs on every major move with the transfer portal open in women's college basketball
Animal Science Major Finds Familiar Sense of Community on the Farm
Elizabeth Reed left her hometown seeking a fresh start. Her determination and passion for livestock led her to leadership, and a close-knit community at the University Farm.
Democrats turn to strikers to talk politics under GOP majority
With only a handful of their bills getting a chance to be heard in committee, legislative Democrats have turned to striker amendments to generate attention.
100 Best & Brightest Undergraduate Business Majors Of 2026
Our annual celebration of the world's most promising business majors to graduate in 2026, featuring 100 truly exceptional students
How Sheng Wang finds 'Purple' comedy in a stuck drawer and a toothbrush choice
Comedian Sheng Wang discusses how his second special "Purple" represents a major evolution from his 2022 debut, reflecting his growth from intimate clubs to touring major theaters nationwide.
College basketball transfer portal fill up with more than 2,000 men's players
Mid-major conferences are being hit hard by transfers, but so are the Power Conferences as more than 320 players enter from P-4 schools
Broncos ownership group joins Rockies as minority partners
DENVER -- Penner Sports Group, the family entity of Greg and Carrie Penner that owns the Denver Broncos, has made an investment that will make it the largest minority owner of the Rockies franchise. The move, approved by Major League Baseball, was announced by Rockies owner, chairman and CEO Dick
Photos: Makeup tests, shoulder cuff health and student presentations
Darryna Guy-Williams, a bioengineering and bio chemistry major, sprays Jenna King, class TA and postdoctorate candidate in chemistry and chemical biology, with a facial hydrating mist in Leila Deravi’s cosmetic chemistry class.
Senator contacts leagues over 'gambling's ugly takeover'
As prediction markets expand partnerships with major U.S. sports leagues, a U.S. senator sent letters to six league commissioners Thursday raising concerns about "gambling's ugly takeover of sports."
Why the World’s Biggest TikTok Star’s $975 Million Business Deal is Suddenly Falling Apart
Khaby Lame’s landmark merger drew in traders and creator economy optimists alike, but the stock has since plunged more than 90 percent and major brokerages are restricting trading.