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AG James: Owners of Newburgh apartments must make repairs, refund tenants
New York Attorney General Letitia James announced a settlement in a lawsuit filed against the owners of the Kenney Apartments.
Broward Health hosts 1st Bump, Baby and Beyond Fair to help expectant parents
Broward Health is working to make preparing for a baby a little less intimidating by connecting expectant families with resources, doctors and information before delivery day.
Stephenson County Fair opens in Freeport with daily activities and entertainment
The Stephenson County Fair opened Tuesday at the Freeport fairgrounds, offering daily admission for $10.
Whiskey industry warns against new tariffs on Canada
The White House defends the new tariffs as leveling the playing field for U.S.-produced spirits, cars and dairy products
Oregon DEQ issuing air quality health advisory for Portland metro
Oregon DEQ issued an air quality advisory for Portland metro, Salem, Hermiston and Ontario through 8 p.m. July 22 as ozone smog rises.
Deputies seek pair for information after break-in at Buncombe County business
Detectives with the Buncombe County Sheriff's Office are asking for the public's help identifying a man and woman they want to speak with regarding a break-in.
1 dead after stabbing in parking lot of Fairfield business
One person died after being stabbed during an altercation in the parking lot of a Fairfield business, according to police.
Roundup: LNG exports / Prairieville market / GLP-1 rivalry
Predicted to double: U.S. LNG exports are expected to nearly double by 2031, becoming the country’s second-largest net export industry and contributing an estimated $1.4 trillion to the economy. The growth is driven by abundant shale gas supplies, major Gulf Coast investments and rising global demand, with LNG exports projected to support hundreds of thousands […]
Conan O’Brien shocks fans with new hairdo: ‘Greaser Conan’
Conan O’Brien is sporting a new ’do these days, and fans are confused: ‘Are we just ignoring his hair?’
Michigan GOP chair says he might support ban on DTE, Consumers giving
It's possible the Michigan Legislature will get the chance to place a competing measure on the November ballot.
LeBron James Credits Jay-Z For Teaching Him How To Move In The Business World, Now They Are Both Billionaires
Jay-Z helped LeBron James succeed in the business world.
Jennifer Love Hewitt Looks Nearly Unrecognizable as She Ditches Dark Hair, Goes Blonde
Jennifer Love Hewitt‘s hair has undergone many transformations over the years, but her latest look has left the actress nearly unrecognizable. “Season 10 hair ready! Let’s go!” the 9-1-1 star shared v...
Garmin Finally Made A Screenless Fitness Tracker
The Cirqa Smart Band is Garmin’s answer to Whoop and the Fitbit Air.
4th person dies from Legionnaires' disease in New York City: Health officials
At least 76 cases have been identified and seven people remain hospitalized, the New York City Health Department announced.
4th person dies from Legionnaires' disease in New York City: Health officials
At least 76 cases have been identified and seven people remain hospitalized, the New York City Health Department announced.
iPhone 18 Rumor Check: 20 Claims Ranked by Likelihood
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro models and its first foldable iPhone are less than two months away from being unveiled, with the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 expected to follow in spring 2027 as part of the company's new split-launch strategy. We've looked back at everything we know so far, and ranked the most consistent rumors, followed by the more speculative ones.
Trump's 50% Canada tariffs risk higher prices and fresh political fallout
President Donald Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, declaring that Canada has unfairly discriminated against American autos, alcohol and dairy products
Amazon Business Reaches $60 Billion in Annualized Gross Sales, Serving Over 11 Million Organizations Worldwide
Organizations of all sizes turning to Amazon Business for its AI-powered tools, business-relevant selection, everyday low prices, delivery fleets purpose-built for businesses, and expanded Prime Business membership benefits More than 1.8 million new organizations joined Amazon Business so far this year Last year, Amazon Business-specific discounts saved organizations more than $1 billion worldwide, while Prime Business members saved more than $880 million in shipping fees globally last year Amazon Business selection up nearly 30% globally this year, with expansion in categories like repair tools, fresh groceries, and office furniture
US Treasury's Bessent tells Fox Business 50% Canada tariffs are 'reciprocity'
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that the 50% tariffs on a range of imports from Canada were "reciprocity" for trade actions by Ottawa on U.S. dairy, alcohol and beverages.
Wrigley Rooftop-View Case Raises Proximity Issue Across Sports
The Chicago Cubs playing games in an “open-air stadium” doesn’t “transform the view” from a neighboring rooftop into Cubs property, Wrigley View Rooftop and owner Aidan Dunican argue in a recent court filing. And if it did, other teams, leagues and sports organizers could allegedly demand payment from neighbors who currently watch for free. Wrigley …
Health officials believe source of deadly NYC Legionnaires' outbreak has been eliminated
Teresa Jacobs to depart Orange County politics after decades of service
Jacobs, 69, was first elected to the Orange County Board of County Commissioners in 2000 and has served as county mayor and school board chair in the decades since.
Healthy diet too expensive for one in three people globally, UN report finds
Global hunger declined for the third year in a row in 2025 but experts call for action to bring down costs of fruit, vegetables and dairy as report shows 2.69bn people can’t afford to eat well
Four deaths reported in New York City Legionnaires’ disease cluster
A fourth person has died in connection with a cluster of Legionnaires’ disease cases in New York City, city officials said.
Health officials share tips as wildfire smoke affects Central Oregon
Wildfire smoke is affecting air quality in Central Oregon and may pose health risks to the public. Public health officials from Crook, Deschutes and Jefferson counties are encouraging residents and vi
Montclair State University Breaks Ground on $120 Million Interdisciplinary Science Building
State-of-the-art facility will create new science research and interdisciplinary collaboration spaces as Montclair continues momentum
Aboriginal people harvested channel millet for thousands of years, and scientists have now found the native grass carries 12 copies of each chromosome
Seen from the air, Channel Country in outback Australia looks like a vast, living tapestry. A web of rivers and creeks fans out across more than 280,000 square kilometres of desert, creating one of the world’s last truly free‑flowing arid river systems.
Senate Democrats’ push to end Medicare prior authorization pilot fails
Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., vice chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, had recently introduced a resolution to overturn the Wasteful and Inappropriate Service Reduction.
The Match That Made Me Fall in Love with Sunderland
A last-minute winner, a sea of red and white, and one unforgettable afternoon - how did a five-year-old's first match spark a lifelong love affair with Sunderland?
Pasadena businesses left sweating after being hit by rooftop A/C copper thieves
Pasadena small businesses are struggling through the summer heat after thieves stole copper from rooftop A/C units, leaving them without air conditioning.
Fan Favorite Takes on TUF Winner at UFC Paris
Nathaniel Wood is back in action on September 5 in Paris, France. The Englishman puts his four-fight winning streak on the line against The Ultimate Fighter season 32 winner Mairon Santos. Both fighters will meet in the featherweight division.Multiple sources have confirmed the booking to Heavy.com. While both Wood and Santos remain unranked in the […] The post Fan Favorite Takes on TUF Winner at UFC Paris appeared first on HEAVY.
Nintendo says it has no legal duty to pass its U.S. tariff refunds on to consumers
Nintendo is asking a court to dismiss a proposed class action suit that was filed this past spring by gamers who say the Mario maker is breaking the law if it doesn’t pass on its U.S. tariff refunds to consumers. Those consumers “received exactly what they bargained and paid for” when buying price-hiked Nintendo goods last year, the company said in a filing on Monday in the case of Hoffert et al v. Nintendo. “Plaintiffs are not entitled to a rebate simply because of intervening legal developments related to tariffs.” Nintendo increased the price of Switch 2 controllers and the original Switch last year, following the imposition of globe-spanning U.S. tariffs (tariffs described by Nintendo’s lawyers on Monday as “sweeping” and “constantly changing”). This past February, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs were illegal. A month later, Nintendo sued the U.S. government to get a refund. And in April, gamers filed the class action claim against Nintendo in Washington, saying it would be illegally double-dipping if it made money from tariff-hiked sales and then from a refund. The gamers sought relief for anyone in the U.S. who bought price-hiked Nintendo items between February 2025 and February 2026. “The common thread among Plaintiffs’ claims is that it is somehow ‘unfair; that Nintendo has not retroactively adjusted its prices for completed sales in response to the outcome of the tariff litigation,” the company’s lawyers wrote in today’s motion to dismiss. “But that is now how commercial transactions work.
Inhospitable climate: GOP's disdain of science helps foul air again
It requires a specific combination of stupidity, ignoring expertise and thinking that the voting public will fall for silly grandstanding.
Popular travel tech find hits its lowest price of the year
Travelers rely on Apple AirTags to keep tabs on bags and valuables — and this four-pack is now the cheapest it's been all year.
Onetime Ivy League leader back in custody 20-plus years after fleeing justice for sexual violence charges
A former medical school professor and hospital chair of his specialty has been re-captured after skipping trial to avoid facing rape charges in 2005.
UFC Freedom 250 Fails to Knock Out The Ratings
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) If UFC fans wanted one image to say, “Hey, Paramount+ is crushing it with their UFC rights deal,” I could provide that image. Here it is: (Reminder: this is my creation of the Nielsen Top 30, since Nielsen doesn’t combine the lists or include sports. I take all three lists and combine them. Some streaming TV shows probably have higher ratings than many of the films on this list.) Look at that! UFC Freedom 250 is number one! It topped the Nielsen “Top 30” list for shows and films that made the top ten the week of 15-June. So if you’re a UFC fan or supporter of Paramount+, that’s the good news for you this week. This program topped the ratings charts for one week. Everything else is bad news, or at least a huge caveat to that story, which I’ll explain today in the first part of this week’s Streaming Ratings Report—for the weeks of 8-June and 15-June—which is a double issue since I’ve been writing on a bunch of topics recently. UFC Freedom 250 is one of the biggest streaming events of the year, and super relevant to Paramount+’s strategy, so it merited its own article. Let’s dive in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of June 8th to June 21st 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Check Out My Interview on UFC 250 at MMA Draw After you read this article, if you want even more thoughts on UFC and Paramount-Skydance/Paramount+, I did a written interview with MMA Draw. They asked me to answer some questions about UFC Freedom 250, and I was happy to chat with them. Find it here: [ The MMA Draw Newsletter Did Paramount really overpay for the UFC? What the data tells us so far If you know the history of American television, you also know that combat sports is often a leading indicator of the future… Read more a day ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Nate Wilcox and Zach Arnold ](https://www.themmadraw.com/p/did-paramount-really-overpay-for?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) I never thought I’d need a combat sports newsletter in my life, but the good folks at MMA Draw publish an excellent one on UFC, MMA, pro wrestling, boxing and more, analyzing both the sports themselves and the politics, economics and antitrust issues that impact them. Check the article and their newsletter out! Paramount+ Has Its Best Sporting Event of All Time…But Was It Worth It? Before we look at the UFC Freedom 250 data in particular, let’s talk about what we can’t say. Namely, let’s start with the lack of comparisons. First off, I’d love to put a chart out comparing this fight to past UFC fights on Paramount+…but we don’t have the data. This is the first time we’ve gotten Nielsen data about a Paramount+ UFC fight. As far as I can tell, Paramount provided data for the first fight, but it was a proprietary datecdote (saying it had “an average minute audience” of 5 million “views”) and then, for two fights, we got the linear viewership numbers when they aired on CBS, but no streaming data. Everything else was crickets. We also can’t compare this fight to other fights/combat sports on streaming, in particular the MMA and boxing, because Netflix also didn’t use Nielsen to track those events, opting for TVision and VideoAmp, respectively. (This isn’t Paramount’s fault, but does still suck.) We also can’t compare to UFC’s fights that used to be on ESPN+, since we don’t have any data for that, plus Disney+ didn’t have marquee fights. The comparisons would not be apples-to-apples. Can we compare to past Pay-Per-View fights? Absolutely not. The comparisons would absolutely NOT be apples-to-apples. That didn’t stop Paramount+, though, who bragged that their UFC events have reached drastically more people than past PPV fights. Duh. Sorry, but I gotta make this point again. A basic tenet of economics is that the cheaper something becomes, the more people consume or buy it. That’s Econ 101. (Sometimes pundits call things “Econ 101” that are actually like Econ 210 or even PhD-level economics, but no, this is really like first or second class basic economics.) Yet I still see one analytics firm consistently say that more people watch films on streaming than PVOD proves streaming which means that the streaming window is more valuable than the PVOD window. No, it’s not! Same thing here. Pay-Per-View events back in the day could be really, really, really expensive! So whole groups of people pitched in to buy them. That increased the perceived value of, say, the Mike Tyson fight. Or a UFC numbered event. So yes, the fact that Paramount+ makes numbered UFC fights essentially “free” if you’re already a Paramount+ member means consumption will go up. Obviously. Same for Netflix and their boxing matches. They’re talking about fights that used to cost consumers, in some cases, $50 in 1996…which is over $100 in today’s dollars. Over 1.6 million people paid that to watch the Tyson-Holyfield fight! Again, streaming is essentially “free”. Or $10 to $20, depending on what streamer we’re talking about and what tier you’re on. No wonder more people are “watching”. (Plus, Nielsen’s out-of-home viewing also helps these numbers.) UFC Freedom 250 Did Well…But I Have A Lot of Worries So what can we compare the fights to? Well, the good news is Nielsen put out that the fight averaged 7.0 million viewers for UFC Freedom 250, which is a solid number for a fight. We also know the length, at roughly 4 and a half hours. (I saw different run times, but this seems to be the consensus considering it started at 8 pm, had a delay and then finished after midnight on the East Coast. If you assume a shorter run time, then yes, the total hours viewed would go down.) That means I have the two numbers needed to add this to my Nielsen database. And then…I can compare this viewership to the NFL: And, uh, not great. But also within striking distance, mainly because the runtime for this event was so long. I’d also add that this event had viewership equal to a regular season NFL game on streaming, but if anything, it was more comparable to an NFL playoff or Super Bowl-esque event. And you can compare viewership to the top football games on broadcast, cable and streaming, and it’s not impressive at all: We can also compare it to other sports that week, including the NBA Finals and start of the World Cup: Again, not great. The NBA generated roughly four times as many average viewers each game for its NBA Finals. The World Cup has similarly big numbers. Also, that’s just a tiny fraction of the 25 most watched sporting events each week. The NBA, NHL and FIFA World Cup had many, many more games racking up hours. We could also compare this to other streaming programs to get an idea of “is this a good investment?” and here is how it ranks compared to other top Paramount+ programs: The worry here? Well, unlike scripted programming, which has rewatchability, older fights/sporting events have very little library value. Very, very few people are rewatching these fights, especially years from now. Paramount has also released datecdotes bragging about their subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, they claimed that the first UFC fight on Paramount+ brought in 1 million subscribers. Then, in their quarterly earnings report, they only ended up with 700K subs. Not great! They claimed they dropped lower-value international subscribers, but that’s why I tend to discount subscriber additions when they’re leaked to the press.1 I expect we may see a bump again for UFC Freedom 250, but I’d caution using subscriber growth so soon after these events to judge the success, since new subs with high churn (see Peacock) aren’t great either. Also, analysts often want to attribute all subscriber growth to their favorite/pet show, and that just doesn’t make sense. The biggest caveat for UFC Freedom 250 and Paramount’s very first UFC marquee event is that these could be high watermarks for the sport. UFC Freedom 250 had an incredible amount of earned media coverage compared to most UFC fights. I mean, it had wall-to-wall national news coverage in the lead up to the event. (The first fight also had a lot of promotion from Paramount since it was first.) Other fights could reach this bar—say the Conor McGregor return to the Octagon—but they’ll be fewer and far between. Was This Deal Worth It? All to ask: is this Paramount deal worth it? In this case, I think the UFC Freedom 250 numbers are more distracting than helpful. This fight did well and compares well to other top sporting events. But we know that the first marquee event was at least a third smaller, if Paramount’s own data is to be believed. And it’s likely the other fights are much, much, much smaller. And then you get to the paycheck that Paramount-Skydance paid. FIFA’s World Cup cost about the same for Fox, but clearly generated multiples more total viewership. (Though it’s only every four years.) The NBA is much more expensive, but until the playoffs, they likely didn’t pay for itself. Even still, Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon Prime Video likely overpaid. So, in that context, the NBA may be an overpay that makes the UFC look not so bad. But two overpays don’t make an underpay, to paraphrase the old cliché about wrongs and rights. And looking at UFC Freedom 250 as the likely ceiling of MMA on Paramount+, Paramount-Skydance likely paid too much. Share 1 I would love regular reports on subscriber additions by programs, but as is, it’s mostly leaked or rumored in haphazard ways.
Fourth person dies in Upper East Side Legionnaires’ outbreak
As of Monday, there had been 76 reported cases of Legionnaires’ disease associated with the outbreak.
White House rushes to further secure Trump’s new Air Force One — but he plans to keep flying it domestically
The White House is working to quickly upgrade the Qatari-donated jet that has newly started serving as Air Force One, a development that comes after administration officials internally discussed the need for President Donald Trump to avoid flying it in high-threat areas, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
Verona Business Shuts Down Due to Zoning Dispute. Owners Are Fighting To Reopen
A Verona business known for its princess-themed parties is fighting to reopen after the township revoked the zoning permit that allowed it to operate for more than three years.
PVAMU workshop prepares educators to teach the future of quantum science
PRAIRIE VIEW, Texas (July 20, 2026) – What if one of tomorrow's fastest-growing technologies could be introduced with spinning tops, flashlights, and hands-on activities? That was the idea behind QuanTime: Quantum Science Workshop for K-12 Educators, in which Prairie View A&M University partnered with Sandia National
Trump imposes 50% tariff on Canadian goods, citing disputes over autos, alcohol
President Donald Trump on Monday imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, declaring that Canada has unfairly discriminated against American autos, alcohol and dairy products.
Trump imposes 50% tariff on Canadian goods, citing disputes over autos, alcohol
President Donald Trump on Monday imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, declaring that Canada has unfairly discriminated against American autos, alcohol and dairy products.
John Droney Jr., prominent Democrat and lawyer, dead at 79
John F. Droney Jr., a Democratic state chairman under Gov. William O’Neill and a strategist for Joseph I. Lieberman, died Sunday.
White House: Trump to fly old Air Force One for about a month
Trump’s use of the new red, white and navy blue aircraft has faced much scrutiny
Cameron University to host ‘MIGHT Night’ science fair for area youth
Dozens of students will soon get the chance to show off their science skills at Cameron University in Lawton.
Campaign photo puts Toast on Lenox in political crosshairs
Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson visited the Atlanta restaurant and posted photos with the co-owner.
Ernst Names Small Business of the Week, Taylor’s Maid-Rite
Read the release on Sen. Ernst's website HERE. Throughout this Congress, Chair Ernst plans to recognize a small business in every one of Iowa’s 99 counties. RED OAK, Iowa – U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Chair of the Senate Small Business Committee, today announced her Small Business of the Week: Taylor's Maid-Rite of Marshall County. Throughout the 119th Congress, Chair Ernst plans to recognize a small business in each of Iowa's 99 counties. "Taylor's Maid-Rite has truly maid their mark as a cornerstone of Marshalltown's business community," said Chair Ernst. "For nearly a century, this shop has served generations of Iowans with a signature burger made fresh every day. This 'Maid in Iowa' success story has proven that consistency, quality, and genuine customer care are the recipe for lasting success." Founded in the heart of Marshalltown, Taylor's Maid-Rite has remained a family-owned business for nearly a century and is now entering its fourth generation of Taylor family ownership. Best known for its signature Maid-Rite sandwich, the restaurant also serves classic American diner favorites, including malts, pies, fries, and sodas. Throughout its history, Taylor's Maid-Rite has remained committed to fresh ingredients, personalized service, and strong community involvement. Stay tuned as Chair Ernst continues to recognize outstanding Iowa small businesses with her Small Business of the Week award. ###
What does new Seahawks owner say he stands for?
Vinod Khosla's family is leading a group that has agreed to purchase the Seahawks. Here's what the billionaire venture capitalist has said about President Trump and other politicians.
Ryan Kennedy Inks With Fair Trade Services & One:eight Entertainment
Songwriter, worship leader and musician Ryan Kennedy has signed a record deal with Fair Trade [...]
Officials sought phone records of NYT journalists and their relatives
The reporters wrote about Trump's Qatari-gifted Air Force One jet
'Entertainment center' with bowling, arcade, restaurant, bar planned for southeast Mahomet
A 17,000-square-foot entertainment center, planned for Tabeling Development's Prairieview Commons subdivision, will include bowling, arcade games, a sports bar and a full-service restaurant.
'Entertainment center' with bowling, arcade, restaurant and bar planned for southeast Mahomet
A 17,000-square-foot entertainment center, planned for lots B and C of Tabeling Development's Prairieview subdivision, will include bowling, arcade games, a sports bar and a full-service restaurant.
New NASA Earth Missions Gear Up to Start Science Flights
The first of six new airborne campaigns will hit the skies this summer.
Arizona PBS participating in Prescott Back-to-School Health and Wellness Fair
Arizona PBS’ Educational Outreach team is participating in The Humboldt Education Foundation’s Back-to-School Health and Wellness Fair in Prescott Valley.
EPA Requests Comments on Draft Science NOx Science Assessment
What: On July 17, 2026, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a document titled “Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides of Nitrogen—Health Criteria, External Review Draft” (“draft ISA”) for public comment.Why: Under the Clean Air
Former Illinois public health chief Nirav Shah drops Maine Senate bid
Before moving to Maine, Shah presided over a series of fatal Legionnaires disease outbreaks at the state of Illinois’ veterans’ home in Quincy that were linked to 14 resident deaths and the sickening of dozens of other staff and residents at the former facility.
4 Mohawk Valley County Fairs to Enjoy This Summer
It's nearing county fair time in the Mohawk Valley.
Amendment 63: New Opportunity: A.14 Atmosphere
The Atmosphere research program is soliciting proposals for data analysis and modeling of NASA supported airborne campaign data. NASA’s Earth Science Division
How to keep the air inside your home clean during wildfires
Tiny particles in the air can cause a range of short-term and chronic health issues, experts say.
ESPN re-signs Tim Tebow to multiyear extension
One of the most recognizable college football analysts on ESPN airwaves will remain with the Worldwide Leader for the foreseeable future. Former Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow has signed a multiyear extension with ESPN to continue serving as a college football analyst on SEC Network, the network announced on Monday. Tebow will remain one of…
AMC Entertainment Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) reported what executives described as the strongest quarterly results in the company’s 106-year history, with record revenue, record adjusted EBITDA and sharply improved free cash flow in the second quarter of 2026. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Adam Aron said mo
Louisiana communities are left in the dark on toxic air – and industry helped keep it that way
How lawmakers weakened community air monitoring as industry pushed back against greater scrutiny
Reacts Results: The bandwagon doesn’t stop here
Somebody needs to get Tetairoa McMillan to run a Hooked on Phonics program for local youth
Pair of Dolphins make ESPN's All-Backup Team for 2026
The Dolphins have some veterans who are entering training camp as backups but could start if they were on another team or if the starter went down.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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