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Argentine bishop offers advice to young people who wish to enter politics
Bishop Juan Liébana of Chascomús, Argentina, describes the ideal profile of a politician: a person of great virtue and integrity intent on building a better society.
Did Neuralink make the wrong bet?
The field of brain-computer interfaces is moving away from mind-controlled computer cursors to restoring speech.
Microsoft’s new Xbox Gamepad Cursor adds a virtual mouse to handhelds
This new Xbox mode feature is ideal for apps that aren’t designed for a controller.
Beware! This "Windows 11 24H2" update download can quietly steal your sensitive data
This Windows 11 24H2 update download could quietly compromise your system and steal sensitive personal data, putting your system's privacy and security at serious risk.
SCORE Offers Free Business Mentoring Sessions
Local entrepreneurs and small business owners in Pasadena have a valuable resource at their fingertips with the ongoing SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Sessions. These free and confidential appointments provide individuals with expert guidance on starting, running, or growing a small business, courtesy of SCORE, the nation’s largest network of volunteer business mentors. The sessions are designed to offer personalized advice and strategic insights from experienced professionals. SCORE, which stands for Service Corps of Retired Executives, is a non-profit organization and a key resource partner of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). Its mission is to foster vibrant small business communities through dedicated mentoring and education. The organization comprises a network of seasoned business owners and executives who generously volunteer their time to support the next generation of entrepreneurs. As SCORE states, their mentoring is a “free, confidential service for anyone starting, running, or growing a U.S.-based small business.” These one-hour mentoring sessions are held every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at two branches of the Pasadena Public Library: the Lamanda Park Branch Library and the Santa Catalina Branch Library. Appointments can be conveniently reserved up to 14 days in advance, ensuring that individuals can schedule a time that best suits their needs. This recurring service underscores SCORE’s commitment to continuous support for the local business community, helping them to plan, launch, and grow successfully. Need to Know: The SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Session offers free business guidance. These one-hour appointments are available every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at the Pasadena Public Library’s Lamanda Park Branch (140 S Altadena Drive, Pasadena, CA 91107) and Santa Catalina Branch (999 E Washington Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91104). The service is free. For more information or to book an appointment, visit [https://www.score.org/].
‘Lady Disdain’ world premiere rides sparkling into Overture
Madison company Forward Theater presents Lauren Gunderson’s bawdy enemies-to-lovers adaptation of “Much Ado About Nothing” through April 26.
The essential role of a health plan in Ohio
How health plans in Ohio can simplify care, improve affordability and provide personal support when families face complex health needs.
Trump lambasts Pope Leo XIV, extending feud over Iran war with first American pontiff
President Donald Trump is sharply criticizing Pope Leo XIV, saying the U_S_-born pope is “not doing a very good job” and is “a very liberal person.”
Women in Business Fund supports NNY professionals; grant applications due May 1
WATERTOWN — Professional women across the Jefferson, Lewis, and St. Lawrence counties are invited to apply by Friday, May 1 for 2026 grant support from the Maxine Quigg Women in
UNM College of Population Health Celebrates 10 Years
Friday, April 17, 2026, The University of New Mexico’s College of Population Health (COPH) will proudly celebrate its 10-year anniversary, marking a decade of measurable impact, substantial growth and future ambition. Founded in 2016, COPH became the...
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Laura Gersony on the SRP election and Turning Point's impact
Arizona Republic reporter Laura Gersony joins us to talk about the SRP election, and why it was a loss for Turning Point USA. Then Dennis and Colin talk about the President’s threat to end a civilization and Melania Trump's Epstein-focused press conference.
Suspect in Molotov attack on Sam Altman linked to AI Discord
Authorities in San Francisco booked the suspect on Friday, and is facing several charges. Including arson of an inhabited structure or property.
Nebraska baseball loses series 2-1 on the road against Oregon
No. 19 Nebraska baseball (27-9, 12-3) hit the road and lost a Big Ten series to Oregon (25-10, 9-5), dropping two games in the weekend outing. The series was highlighted by a lightning delay Friday night, three Case Sanderson home runs and a close rubber match on Sunday.
Health expert explains link between women's hormones, stress
Functional medicine practitioner Jennifer Gularson highlights how physiological shifts like menopause can trigger significant stress and hormone imbalances.
'Tarkov in Space' Revealed as Fragmentary Order, a Sci-Fi 'Combat Simulator'
Rant Gaming has unveiled Fragmentary Order, a new first-person shooter that many have dubbed Escape from Tarkov in space.
Denver beats Wisconsin 2-1 for its 11th national title and 3rd in 5 years
Denver's Johnny Hicks continued his stellar play by making 29 saves, just two days after a personal-high 49 against Michigan.
How aggressive breast cancer turns off the immune system
Researchers are launching a new project to crack the mystery of aggressive breast cancer, where predicting disease progression remains a major hurdle. By studying how tumors interact with and suppress the immune system, scientists aim to identify new biomarkers that reveal how the cancer evolves. Using real patient samples, the team hopes to turn earlier discoveries into practical clinical tools. The goal: more precise, personalized treatments that can outsmart even the most dangerous tumors.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
If You Visit JoJo’s Diner, Bring Your Appetite
By Stefan Yablonski Q: When did you open? A: We opened Oct. 1. Q: Did you have a previous business? A: This is my first business ever. Q: So why did you start this? A: I was cooking for people my entire life and I decided I’m just going to try it on my own. And here we are! Q: How’s business been? A: It’s been good. Kind of slow over the winter, but starting to pick up now that the weather is getting better. We have high hopes for spring. We were really hopping over the weekend when it was much nicer out. Q: What’s your best dish? A: Our junkyard plates are our huge specialty. It’s a huge messy plate of goodness. We also have breakfast sandwiches, waffles, smashburgers and more. Q: Do you own this building? A: We lease from Chuck Burger. He’s our landlord. He has been super helpful. He provided all the equipment. I didn’t have to. Q: You’re a breakfast spot? A: We do breakfast and lunch all day. It’s kind of our thing. We are open 7-3 every day except Tuesdays. Q: How big is your staff? A: Currently it’s one other person. It’s just been me on the front end and someone in the kitchen or vice versa. Q: It’s all to go? A: Everything comes out ‘to go’ — served in to-go containers. You can eat inside or you can take it with you. We don’t have to provide extra staff for waitresses and dishwashers and all that. Q: Do you have any business background? A: I did the small business program at the college. But that’s about it. We’re new, but we’re still building. We hope to grow and stay here for a long time.
John Nolan, ‘Batman’ actor and uncle to Christopher Nolan, dead at 87: reports
Actor John Nolan, widely known for his roles in “Batman” and “Person of Interest,” died at age 87 on Saturday, according to multiple media reports. Local British outlet Stratford-Upon-Avon Herald f…
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Social media erupts after Harris introduces 'mob boss' accent to attack Trump: 'Total cringe'
Kamala Harris impersonated Donald Trump as a mob boss while criticizing his foreign policy at a National Action Network event, sparking online backlash.
AI for breakup texts? How 'sycophantic' chatbots are messing with our ability to handle difficult social situations.
Overly agreeable AI responses to interpersonal issues could mess with human moral perspectives.
Best of Your Hometown Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Pracht Law Firm
We’re in the final stretch! Ready to recognize your favorite local businesses? Submit your nominations for Best of Your Hometown Community’s Choice Awards today.
Contract talks planned for key defensive trio at Borussia Dortmund
Sports BILD is reporting that more concrete talks at Borussia Dortmund are planned with Gregor Kobel, Waldemar Anton and Julian Ryerson. However, the popular German tabloid does not provide any furth...
Brittney Griner to sign with Connecticut Sun, AP source says
Brittney Griner is finalizing a deal to join the Connecticut Sun, according to a person familiar with the negotiations | 97.3 The Sky
Brittney Griner to sign with Connecticut Sun, AP source says
Brittney Griner is finalizing a deal to join the Connecticut Sun, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. The 10-time All-Star spent last season with the Atlanta Dream after playing the first 11 years of her career for Phoenix, which drafted her No. 1 in 2013. The 35-year-old Griner is from Houston and the Connecticut franchise is moving there in 2027.
Framework CEO warns AI boom may lead to a scenario where "personal computing as we know it is dead”
Framework CEO Nirav Patel warns that the AI boom and a “winner-takes-all” scramble for chips and storage could drive up component costs and push consumers toward cloud-leased, closed devices, effectively ending personal computing as traditionally understood. While acknowledging progress in repairability across the industry, he positions Framework’s upcoming Next Gen Event as part of a renewed pledge to defend user ownership through upgradable, repairable hardware and local control over data and computation.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
Healthdaq: Recruitment platform used by health trusts targeted by cyber attackers
Hackers claim to have stolen hundreds of thousands of files containing personal data from the platform.
Maricopa County health officials confirm first heat-related death of 2026
The person is identified as a man, and no additional details, including date, time or location, will be released "to protect patient privacy," according to the department.
Personal trainer shocked to find health company using his photos
Sion documented his weight loss journey online and was shocked to find a company was using his photos.
Maricopa County confirms first heat-related death of 2026
Health officials have confirmed that a person has died from heat-related complications, the first in the Phoenix metro in 2026.
Jodi Daniel Quoted by KFF Health News and CNN on Healthcare Privacy Concerns
Wilson Sonsini partner Jodi Daniel was recently quoted in a KFF Health News article, which was also featured by CNN. The piece, titled "Trump’s Personnel Agency Is Asking for Federal Workers’ Medical…
Acting CDC director delayed release of study showing benefit of Covid vaccines
An HHS spokesperson said Dr. Jay Bhattacharya had concerns about the paper’s methodology. Some current or former CDC employees worry about political interference.
Rapper Offset released from the hospital after being shot outside a Florida casino
The rapper Offset has been released from the hospital after being shot outside a Florida casino earlier this week, a spokesperson said | WWL
Rapper Offset released from the hospital after being shot outside a Florida casino
The rapper Offset has been released from the hospital after being shot outside a Florida casino earlier this week, a spokesperson said | KMBZ
80 Years of Excellence: 49ers Launch Reimagined Mobile App
Sourdough Sam AI guides fans through a redesigned app, offering personalized stats and stadium info. Celebrate 80 years with this groundbreaking digital experience.
Does Eric Adams Now Have Albanian Citizenship?
Several Albanian outlets have reported that the former mayor has been granted Albanian citizenship and a passport by the nation’s president.
French government says au revoir Windows, bienvenue Linux
It's part of a broader European movement to reduce reliance on American tech.
DHA offers $300M for health IT deployment support
The Department of Defense has opened a multiple-award solicitation, focused on procurement of enterprise technologies and other IT related to the MHS GENESIS electronic health record.
Trump Shares Gruesome Video of Deadly Attack on Social Media
The president shared footage of a woman being bludgeoned to death at a Florida gas station to rail against Democrats’ handling of immigration.
Exploring the cognitive science behind NFL Draft decision-making behaviors
The human behavior and decision-making aspects behind a person’s dating life doesn’t stray too differently from the choices coaches and general managers make when selecting a player in the NFL Draft. “You date someone and you make a choice to commit to this person, or keep looking,” said Cleotilde Gonzalez,
NFL news, live updates: Texans reportedly pick up fifth-year options on QB C.J. Stroud and edge Will Anderson Jr.
Interview: Rob McClure on the Unsettling Reality of SPARE PARTS – “This Isn’t Science Fiction. It’s Just Science.”
“Experimenting on yourself is insane. An experiment on a single person, with no controls, tells you nothing. It is incapable of predicting anything.” Or… is it? Such is the premise of Spare Parts, the darkly comedic and deeply twisted new drama currently shaking up Theatre Row through April 30th — and subverting our standards of what …Read more
Personnel note: Eric Ludin tapped as Of Counsel for Shumaker's St. Pete office
Ludin is a Florida Supreme Court Certified Circuit Mediator, making him a commodity among other lawyers to resolve client disputes.
News Splash: Jefferson Health Teams Up With Kalahari Resort for Health and Wellness
Collaboration with iconic Pocono attraction provides benefits for both resort employees and guests
Horne misses Toulon clash through injury
Glasgow Warriors head coach Franco Smith has made two changes for Saturday's Champions Cup quarter-final clash against RC Toulon. An unchanged front-row sees Patrick Schickerling continue at loose-head alongside Gregor Hiddleston and Zander Fagerson up front.
A year later, L.A.B. Golf’s weird science got bigger … and more personal
L.A.B. Golf shakes up the putter game with zero-torque tech and wild customization—find one that fits your style and reshapes your game today!
Anderson Twp. business is warning others after teens’ coordinated theft
Security cameras inside Anderson Grab and Go captured video of several teens distracting a store clerk last Friday.
Trump Attacks Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly Over Iran War Criticism
In a lengthy social media post, the president attacked Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and others in starkly personal terms. He also criticized the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal.
Crime Stoppers: Extension cords stolen from lot of Moline business
The person was wearing a baseball cap, black hoodie, green pants and boots. Police said the person also had a large black backpack.
GHD’s Adrienne Young named to North Bay Business Journal’s Forty Under 40 of 2026
“You have to learn to trust your own judgment and speak up around other technical experts. And it can be intimidating when you might be the youngest person on that project team.”
Evers signs measure paving way for online sports betting in Wisconsin
Gov. Tony Evers on Thursday signed a law opening the door to legal online sports betting in Wisconsin.
The Lift adds PS5 and Xbox Series versions, delayed to 2027
First-person, narrative-driven, supernatural handyman simulator The Lift for PlayStation 5, Xbox Series, and PC via Steam in 2027, publisher tinyBuild and developer Fantastic Signals announced. The…
'Teacher crisis': Push to extend property tax to pay Duval County teachers continues
Homeowners may be asked to give a little more for a little longer.
Justice Department investigating the NFL over subscription fees, source says
The DOJ probe is focused on possible anti-competitive tactics, a person familiar with the investigation told NBC News.
Estrogen patch shortages are getting worse and could last for years
A spokesperson for the FDA said the agency is coordinating with companies to support efforts to boost the supply of patches for women with menopause symptoms.
My favorite health foods from Costco, from 65-year-old fitness trainer
As a personal trainer focused on longevity and healthy eating, I stock up on protein-filled foods like frozen chicken and Greek yogurt at Costco.
On Social Media, Democratic Politicians Are Letting the F-Word Fly
In person, on social media and in campaign ads, Democratic politicians are swearing with glee. It is usually aimed at President Trump.
Jefferson Parish set to build food business 'incubator' in Westwego
The New Orleans Food and Beverage Incubator will be the only wholesale food incubator of its kind in the Greater New Orleans Area, designed to help food entrepreneurs grow their businesses.
Local man named Ohio’s Small Business Person of the Year
A local business owner has received big recognition in the state.
Ohio legislation would require in-person sports betting, ban parlays and prop bets
Republicans in the Ohio Statehouse have proposed a pair of bills that would limit which kinds of sports bets could be placed and would eliminate mobile betting, requiring all wagers to be placed in…
Southwest Airlines limits passengers to 1 portable charger per person over fire concerns
Southwest Airlines rolls out stricter portable charger rules, limiting passengers to one device per person amid rising lithium battery fire concerns.
Sports Illustrated Swimsuit issue to feature WNBA stars Napheesa Collier, Sophie Cunningham
The 2026 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue will feature WNBA stars Napheesa Collier, Sophie Cunningham, and USA Track and Field sprinter Melissa Jefferson-Wooden.
Anderson youth health center project faces uncertain future
A major partner withdrew from Anderson's planned youth behavioral health center, leaving its future uncertain.
Social support, sleep and pain management linked to mental health in later life
Older Canadians who are socially connected, physically healthy, and spiritually engaged are significantly more likely to experience complete mental health, according to a new nationally representative ...
Mitchell Fink Dead: Gossip Columnist, Entertainment TV Personality Was 82
Mitchell Fink, a writer whose gossip columns and entertainment news was found on outlets like People and the New York Daily News, has died at 82.
Israeli Strikes Kill 89, Wound 700 in Lebanon on Wednesday, Health Ministry Says
BEIRUT, April 8 (Reuters) - A spokseperson for Lebanon's health ministry told Reuters that Israel's strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday had killed "89 martyrs and wounded 700 people." The spokesperson said 12 medics were among the dead in southern Lebanon. (Reporting by Maya ...
New Yorkers Mostly Like What They See From Mamdani So Far
Residents gave Mamdani high marks on his leadership, but his approval rating is lower than Eric Adams’s was around the same period.
Trump’s personnel agency is asking for federal workers’ medical records
The Trump administration is quietly seeking unprecedented access to medical records for millions of federal workers and retirees, and their families.
Trump’s Personnel Agency Is Asking for Federal Workers’ Medical Records
By Amanda Seitz and Maia Rosenfeld | KFF Health News The Trump administration is quietly seeking unprecedented access to medical records for millions of federal workers and retirees, and their families. A brief notice from the Office of Personnel Management could dramatically change which personally ...
Masters 2026 odds, picks, predictions, favorites: Expert fading Rory McIlroy at Augusta National
SportsLine golf expert David Bearman just locked in his predictions for the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club with Tiger Woods (personal) not in the field
VA Finger Lakes focuses on Whole Health
The VA Finger Lakes healthcare system is taking a new approach to care, which focuses not just on treating illness but healing the whole person.
'I'm Still Beyond Confused Why They Didn't Go the Cyberpunk Route' — Crimson Desert Female Character Creator Mod Lets Players Unshackle Themselves From Premade Kliff
One of the major criticisms of Crimson Desert I’ve seen since launch is that it does not let you create your own character. Instead, you’re locked into playing as Kliff, who himself has been criticized for a lack of personality, and two other even less fleshed out playable characters. Well, now, like so many other things with Pearl Abyss’ open world action adventure, there’s a mod for that.
Roberson's Kaegan Radford leads Week 7 boys spring sports top performers
Roberson's Kaegan Radford led the Rams to two wins, leading the list of Week 7 WNC high school spring sports boys top performers.
Trump’s Personnel Agency Is Asking for Federal Workers’ Medical Records
The administration is asking insurers that cover federal employees and retirees to hand over details about their medical visits, their pharmacy claims, and more.
Preserving access for vulnerable communities should be a top priority in Congress
By Tony Henderson As both a minister and as president of the NAACP Denver, I believe access to high-quality, accessible health care is a right that should be afforded to each and every one of us. To that end, Medicare Advantage has become a critical component of our health system, helping secure access to care […]
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement celebrity crime music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement celebrity crime music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement celebrity crime music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | 830 WCCO
Billionaire Bill Ackman Thinks This Entertainment Giant Is "Dramatically Underperforming." Here's His $64 Billion Plan to Fix It This Year
This is the latest move by the hedge fund manager to be the modern-day Warren Buffett.
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement celebrity crime music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | WWL
Masters 2026 odds, picks, predictions, favorites: Expert fading Rory McIlroy at Augusta National
SportsLine golf expert David Bearman just locked in his predictions for the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club with Tiger Woods (personal) not in the field
DA identifies man killed by Boston Police after alleged sword attack, mental health crisis
A 29-year-old Boston man has been identified as the person shot and killed by police over the weekend after he allegedly stabbed first responders with a sword during a mental health crisis.
2026 NASCAR Odds: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin Top Early Board
Who will get into Victory Lane when the NASCAR Cup series goes to Bristol this weekend? Here are the early odds.
S.F. Supervisor Jackie Fielder extends leave of absence to June 30
Fielder had already missed two weeks’ worth of board and committee meetings before news broke on March 27 that she was in the hospital amid an “acute personal health crisis.”
Health improving in Jefferson County, but mental health stands out
Jefferson County sees health gains, but mental health—especially among youth—remains a top concern, officials say.
Manager J.M. Stodola Joins Arsonhouse Entertainment
EXCLUSIVE: J.M. Stodola has joined the team at Arsonhouse Entertainment as a manager after four years at Sugar23, during which he elevated from assistant to manager. Prior to Sugar23, which reorganize...
J.M. Stodola Joins Arsonhouse Entertainment As Manager (EXCLUSIVE)
J.M. Stodola has joined Arsonhouse Entertainment as a manager after four years at Sugar23, Deadline can report exclusively.
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement celebrity crime music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | WBEN
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement crime celebrity music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Man arrested for business arson and burglary in Lynchburg
Donald Collier is charged with possession of a firearm by a convicted felon, possession of ammunition by a convicted felon, arson, burglary, and grand larceny.
Masters 2026 odds, picks, predictions, favorites: Expert fading Rory McIlroy at Augusta National
SportsLine golf expert David Bearman just locked in his predictions for the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club with Tiger Woods (personal) not in the field
‘Live’ Emcee Déjà Vu Shares Update on Recent Health Diagnosis
The TV personality sported a face mask during the show's Tuesday, April 7, episode.
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n grammy-awards general-news music hip-hop-and-rap entertainment shootings u-s-news | Newsradio 1140 WRVA
Elephant Rumblings: The Caray Call
It’ll exist in my mind as simply iconic. Though after an intense scouring of the internet, I’ve come to realize that Chris Caray’s walk-off home run call from Sunday has garnered mixed reviews. Personally, I loved the in-the-moment nature of him screaming along with the ball as it slammed off of Brent Rooker’s bat and […]