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Mangione faces hearing ahead of trial over US health insurance CEO's killing
Luigi Mangione, the man accused of fatally shooting a health insurance executive on a Manhattan sidewalk in 2024, is due for a hearing in federal court on Monday ahead of his federal trial on stalking charges after murder and weapons charges were thrown out.
Help start the conversation on mental health
A new guide from the Kentucky Injury Prevention and Research Center is helping healthcare providers start meaningful conversations about mental health during routine visits.
Trump calls likely DC mayor Janeese Lewis George a 'communist' and vows to block her agenda
D.C. mayoral frontrunner Janeese Lewis George faces clash with President Trump over ICE enforcement, policing, cashless bail and sanctuary city policies.
Reece James: England defender confident of playing again at World Cup
Plus: England face prospect of 24 hours worth of flights if they make it all the way to World Cup final; South Korea manager Myung-Bo Hong reportedly quits after disappointing tournament; Robert Lewandowski to join Chicago Fire after leaving Barcelona
Orlando Magic Have Something to Prove After Latest Power Rankings
New head coach Sean Sweeney faces immense pressure to transform Orlando's talented core into postseason contenders and silence doubters following a mediocre mid-pack ranking and trade rumors.
Concerns with the Sebastian County Sheriff’s office
The recently-surfaced video showing the potential maltreatment of a Sebastian County Jail inmate, and a subsequent statement about the troubling incident from interim Sheriff Mike Conger point to the need...
Stetson Bennett dealing with ‘business side’ of NFL in QB competition with Rams
Former Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm provides perspective on the challenge Stetson Bennett faces competing with Ty Simpson on the Los Angeles Rams.
Entertainment Firms Face AI Copyright Uncertainty
Editorial analysis: For AI and ML practitioners, unclear copyright rules raise the legal risk and compliance cost of using generative models in production content pipelines. According to The Economic Times, Indian entertainment firms are investing heavily in AI for content creation, but current copyright law, which is tied to human creativity, may not clearly protect AI-assisted or AI-generated works. The Economic Times reports lawyers warn that, without specific legislation or case law, such works face risks of duplication and misuse, complicating licensing, attribution, and monetization for studios and creators. The article highlights that creators and rights holders in India currently have limited legal recourse under existing statutes, per The Economic Times.
Suns Face Miles Bridges Decision After Trade With Hornets
The Phoenix Suns made a change on Sunday after getting swept in the first round of the playoffs.
Galaxy Z's days are apparently numbered: Accessories point to a very unusual name for Samsung's iPhone Ultra competitor
At first, it was called the Galaxy Z Wide Fold or the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide, then—according to generally reliable sources—simply the Galaxy Z Fold8. Now a fourth name has surfaced for the compact and wider iPhone Ultra alternative, that Samsung will unveil on July 22 alongside the updated Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra. However, as authentic as these images seem to be, there are doubts.
Lille reveal Ayyoub Bouaddi stance amid Liverpool interest
Liverpool Face Patient Lille Stance Over Ayyoub Bouaddi TransferLiverpool’s interest in Ayyoub Bouaddi has moved into sharper focus, with AS reporting that Lille are prepared to take a patient appro...
Rep. Jahana Hayes released from hospital after health scare
Representative Jahana Hayes has been released from the hospital after a health scare last week. In a video posted to Facebook on Sunday, she said she was leaving St. Mary’s Hospital where she was admitted for the last two days. “On Friday, I felt like I was dizzy while shopping, I was out getting phones at the mall and felt…
EXCLUSIVE: Three Candidates Vying For Global Fund Leadership In Contentious Race
As the Global Fund heads into a secretive but highly contentious election of its new Executive Director, the names of three likely US candidates have surfaced - former Global Fund Executive Director Mark Dybul, former Trump appointee William Steiger and a former NYC public health official, Ashwin Vasan.
Los Alamos Faith And Science Forum Announces Schedule Of Lectures Through Aug. 12
Courtesy image/LAFSF Los Alamos Faith and Science Forum News: For 2026, the Los Alamos Faith and Science Forum invites the public to examine issues at the interface of faith and science on Wednesdays through Aug. 12. After a light dinner at 6 p.m., presentations will begin at 6:30 p.m. to be followed by a Q […]
Healthcare groups clash over proposed California billionaire tax
California voters in November are set to decide if the state's billionaires should face a new tax on their assets in order to fund healthcare programs.
Healthcare groups clash over proposed California billionaire tax
California voters in November are set to decide if the state's billionaires should face a new tax on their assets in order to fund healthcare programs.
Americans find common ground on healthcare
Americans agree that healthcare needs to be better, cheaper, and less complicated. Good ideas toward those goals are bubbling up around the country.
National City weighs business tax overhaul amid mounting budget pressures
Council to hear proposal June 30. It faces significant opposition from business community.
Brain activity under anesthesia challenges what we know about consciousness
The unconscious brain appears to be far more capable than scientists once believed. Researchers found that patients under general anesthesia could still process language at a sophisticated level, distinguishing nouns, verbs, and adjectives while listening to stories. Even more remarkably, neural activity showed signs of predicting upcoming words before they were heard. The results challenge traditional ideas about consciousness and hint at new possibilities for brain-computer interfaces.
Peer Support May Be the Answer to the Mental Health Crisis
Peer support is the sleeping giant that may help us overcome the social and mental health crises we currently face.
Americans now live longer in Democratic-held House districts. Here’s why
Even as health care issues rise in the 2026 campaign debate, new data show that far more House Republicans than Democrats represent districts where the most residents face major medical challenges — and lack health insurance.
Airlines Are Installing New Luxury Seats, but No One Is Allowed to Sit in Them
Lie-flat seats in private pods face long waits for safety certifications, delaying debuts for carriers’ high-end offerings.
South Korea's World Cup Exit Stuns Football, Entertainment Industries
South Koreas World Cup Exit Stuns Football, Entertainment Industries Hong Myung-bos squad finishes third in group; entertainment programs face awkward invitations amid lack of inspiring content
Israeli politicians lash out after Netanyahu announces intention of 'broad national government'
During the press conference, Netanyahu condemned unnamed forces which "want to cause a rift in the people, want to aggravate and deepen the misunderstandings and disagreements and rifts within us."
Trump-backed Julia Letlow faces John Fleming in Louisiana GOP Senate runoff
U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow, who was endorsed by Trump, and state Treasurer John Fleming are competing in the runoff. The two finished ahead of Sen. Bill Cassidy in the May 16 primary after Trump denounced the two-term senator, who voted to convict him following his 2021 impeachment.
Israel’s Vance problem is bigger than JD Vance
Vice President JD Vance has become the face of a Washington that no longer treats Israel as the exception to "America First."
Bill Maher reveals to JD Vance which political party keeps refusing to face his questions
Bill Maher told Vice President JD Vance on Friday's episode of "Real Time" that many of the Democrats he has supported over the years have declined invitations to appear on his show. (Credit: Real Time with Bill Maher)
Central NY farm in business for more than 80 years faces costly rebuild after fire
Community members and farmers have rallied to help the farm cleanup and rebuild after a fire destroyed its greenhouses.
Yellowstone’s supervolcano may be fueled by something unexpected
Scientists have uncovered a new explanation for what powers Yellowstone and other supervolcanoes. Instead of a deep plume rising from near Earth’s core, a broad “mantle wind” may push hot rock beneath Yellowstone, generating magma closer to the surface. This process helps create a massive underground magma network and may explain how supervolcanoes remain active for long periods.
Saturday Sports: The World Cup enters knockout stage; Serena returns to Wimbledon
NPR's Scott Simon and sportswriter Howard Bryant have a World Cup knockout stage preview and discuss Serena Williams' return to Wimbledon.
Week in Politics: Trump and bipartisan housing bill, John Bolton; Democratic socialists
President Trump canceled a signing for major housing legislation, former National Security Advisor John Bolton pled guilty to mishandling classified documents, and Democratic Socialists made gains.
Could Israel’s coming election see an end to Netanyahu’s political career?
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces mounting political, legal and US pressure ahead of crucial elections.
Trump admin rule puts reproductive health care for 160K Pa. patients at risk, lawsuit says
A lawsuit says family planning and health organizations in Pennsylvania could face federal funding delays or denials due to a new Trump administration policy.
After ousting Bill Cassidy, Donald Trump faces fresh test of his sway with GOP voters in Louisiana’s Senate runoff
Louisiana Republican voters already rejected an incumbent senator who was crossways with President Donald Trump. In a primary runoff on Saturday, they’ll decide whether to follow Trump’s lead in choosing a new nominee.
Letlow, Fleming face off for Cassidy's seat in Louisiana GOP Senate runoff
Jeffries Faces Steep Test as Far Left Builds Strength in Congress
The victories of Darializa Avila Chevalier and other anti-establishment candidates are changing the face of House Democrats, posing a challenge for their leader.
Apple A20 Pro motherboard leak hints at notable memory and packaging upgrades
A leaked package layout of Apple's A20 Pro hints at several notable upgrades for the iPhone 18 Pro series. The next-gen SoC is said to feature a wider 96-bit memory interface, a redesigned packaging approach for improved thermals, and a larger Neural Processing Unit (NPU).
Just 2 Hours of Strength Training May Lower Heart Disease Risk in Women
Researchers say that just 2 hours of weekly strength training may help lower the risk of cardiovascular disease in women, especially when paired with 150 minutes of weekly aerobic exercise.
Trump-backed Letlow faces Fleming in Louisiana GOP Senate runoff
President Donald Trump’s choice for U.S. Senate in Louisiana is seeking to secure the GOP nomination and deliver another win for the president in his effort to replace Republicans who crossed him
ACES hosts event looking at health impacts of climate change
Dr. Mark Gladwin, the dean of University of Maryland School of Medicine and the vice president of Medical Affairs, is slated to speak with Aspen Center for Environmental Studies from 6 to 7 p.m. July 2 on the worsening health impacts in the face of human-driven climate change.
CIAA extends commish, teases "playoff" format
The CIAA will keep a familiar face at the top while teasing a new format.
We almost had a smartphone in the 90s. Why did it fail?
In the early 90’s, a company called General Magic began working on a portable device that would allow people to check email, make phone calls, even play games. It was basically a smartphone. But it never caught on.On today’s show, a theory about why this device failed. General Magic had generous investors, world-class talent and creative freedom. But is it possible what they needed was constraints?Support:Planet Money+Read: Our book: Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life Our weekly longform Planet Money newsletterOur weekly Indicator round-up newsletterFollow: InstagramTikTokYouTubeFacebookThis episode was hosted by Erika Beras and Emma Peaslee. It was produced by Emma Peaslee with help from Sam Yellowhorse Kesler and James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune and fact-checked by Charlotte Isidore. It was engineered by Jimmy Keeley with help from Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money’s executive producer.
Is the No Surprises Act working? Government watchdog is uncertain
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said it needs more data to determine what savings the 2020 law is bringing to the U.S. healthcare system—but early data indicate it falls short of expectations.
Democratic candidate challenging Rep. Lawler on her bid to ‘tear down political silos’
New York U.S. House candidate and combat veteran Cait Conley (D) joins Meet the Press NOW following her primary win. She faces incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in one of November’s most closely watched races as Democrats try to flip the House.
Americans keep poisoning themselves with semaglutide, other weight loss drugs
These incidents became much more common after the FDA started approving GLP-1 drugs for chronic weight management in 2021.
Health system CEO fired without cause in wake of class-action lawsuit over unnecessary surgeries
Reese Jackson, the former president and CEO of Chesapeake Regional Healthcare was unceremoniously dismissed from his role on June 1. Jackson has been named as a defendant in a pending class-action lawsuit filed by 900 women.
Sports Intelligence Project explores high-end decision making in multifaceted industry
A new co-curricular offering tasks students with combining data, AI and the human element of athletics.
MAI-Code-1-Flash for Copilot Business and Copilot Enterprise
MAI-Code-1-Flash, Microsoft AI’s in-house coding model, is now generally available for GitHub Copilot Business and Copilot Enterprise, building on its recent expansion across Copilot surfaces. Purpose-built for coding and optimized…
Heat can worsen certain health conditions | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
People with chronic diseases may face flare-ups or worsening symptoms during very hot weather, according to experts.
Jackson business owner charged with murder after 21-year-old man shot
A suspected vehicle break-in ended in gunfire in Jackson. Police say the business owner now faces murder charges after the 21-year-old victim died during surgery.
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Cooper Pratt, Jake Bennett among fresh faces to consider adding
‘Faces Of Death’ To Close Edinburgh’s Midnight Madness Strand
'Faces Of Death' will be the closing title of Edinburgh’s Midnight Madness strand.
Securitize and Cantor Equity Partners II Business Combination Expected to Raise Approximately $400 million in Gross Proceeds and Announce Expected Closing of Business Combination and NYSE Listing
/PRNewswire/ -- Securitize, Inc. ("Securitize" or the "Company"), and Cantor Equity Partners II, Inc. (Nasdaq: CEPT) ("CEPT"), a publicly traded special...
2026 SEC football predictions: Game-by-game picks, projecting every team's final win-loss record
Continuing our early-summer projection series for all 16 teams in the SEC and where they'll end up in the postseason
How to get free Windows 10 security patches until October 2027 - and avoid the $30 fee
Don't want to pay to keep Windows 10 security updates? Microsoft has several workarounds, with the best deal for European users.
Scientists stunned by signs of ancient life in a place no one expected
Scientists exploring ancient seafloor rocks in Morocco discovered mysterious wrinkle patterns where they were never expected to occur. These structures are normally linked to microbial mats in shallow, sunlit waters, yet the rocks formed hundreds of feet below the surface in darkness. Evidence indicates that chemosynthetic microbes created the wrinkles, revealing that deep-ocean microbial ecosystems may have been more widespread than previously thought.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
Morgan Stanley on life after selling your business: a roadmap for entrepreneurs
Selling your company can be the financial win of a lifetime — and one of the most disorienting transitions you'll ever face.
The Science Of Speed: How Mizuno’s Nanoalloy Face Changes What’s Possible In Driver Design
Mizuno is the first company to put a functional polymer layer in front of a driver face. The implications go well beyond ball speed. For most of the
Memorial Health Championship in full swing in Springfield
Organizers are also offering additional attractions beyond golf, including food trucks, the Scheels Fan Zone and Family Fun Day on Saturday, which features a superhero theme for children and families.
Ben Wood, longtime three-dot columnist known as ‘Mr. Show Business,’ dies at 94
Ben Wood, a multifaceted copy editor, food and entertainment writer, and three-dot columnist for the Honolulu Star-Bulletin and Honolulu Star-Advertiser for almost 50 years, died June 19 after several years of declining health. He was 94.
After Supreme Court’s TPS decision, more than a million immigrants face scramble to stay in US
Until Thursday, hundreds of thousands of Haitians were legally living and working in the United States, along with thousands of Syrians. Now, they’re in legal limbo.
In governor's race, voters face stark choice on immigrant healthcare
California’s next governor will face tough decisions on a highly controversial piece of healthcare policy: what to do about health coverage for the more than 1.4 million low-income residents without legal status.
Scientists find evidence of vast hidden magma systems inside Mars
Researchers from the University of Oxford have uncovered evidence that Mars once hosted enormous, Earth-like magmatic systems deep beneath its surface—despite the planet lacking the plate tectonics long ...
Online retailer John's Crazy Socks relocates to Huntington in effort to turn around business
The company's core mission is to create employment opportunities for people who face barriers to work because of disabilities.
Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
Could that spell trouble for Ashley Moody as she faces Alex Vindman?
CRAWFORD | Kenny Klein, beloved longtime Louisville sports information director, dies at 66
Klein's career spanned nearly four decades and helped shape the public face of Cardinals athletics through some of its greatest triumphs and most difficult crises.
EVA HENRY: Corruption resurfaces in Adams, Arapahoe County politics linked to One Main Street
Corporate dark money groups are funneling millions into eleven different races statewide.
Clinicians are making more money despite stagnant reimbursement. Guess how?
Compensation for healthcare providers rose some 4.3% in 2025. The sobering news is that the gain owes more to heavier daily workloads than to bigger per-patient billings.
👀 Brazil learn first World Cup knockout opponents
The Brazil National Team already knows who it will face in the FIFA World Cup Round of 32.Vini Jr., Matheus Cunha & Co. will take on Japan in their first knockout match of the World Cup. Japan finish...
Video of Tom Sandoval pushing ex's dad into firepit surfaces
Bravo alum Tom Sandoval is in the midst of another controversy after video surfaced showing an altercation with his ex and her father.
2026 World Cup Is Putting FIFA’s Rules on Political Neutrality to the Test
The World Cup is in full swing across North America, and the U.S. men’s team faces Turkey in its final group round appearance on Thursday. But behind the cheering fans and nail biting matches, FIFA's commitment to political neutrality is put to the test. Marisa sits down with Tariq Panja, global sports correspondent at The New York Times. They dig into the politics behind the games, from restrictions on Iran’s team and President Trump’s unusually close relationship with FIFA president Giann
Neuroimaging utilization in emergency departments has increased year-over-year for a decade
Researchers believe their new data could be used to better inform staffing coverage in modern radiology departments.
Shockwave Medical announces new studies evaluating carotid IVL platform
Carotid artery disease causes up to 30% of all strokes, but severely calcified lesions can make treatment quite complex. The hope is that IVL can be as successful in this area as it has been in the treatment of coronary and peripheral artery disease.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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