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Aston Martin boss Newey reveals health issues led to 'difficult period'
Adrian Newey has revealed he was battling health issues during his first year at Aston Martin, leading to a "difficult period" as the team also struggled to adapt to Formula 1's 2026 regulations.
How Elite Sports Coaches Make High-Pressure Decisions
Drawing on interviews with 11 elite coaches across major U.S., European, Australian, and New Zealand professional sports leagues, the authors show that high-pressure decisions aren’t a single “formula” but a set of practices that unfold before, during, and after pivotal moments—and translate directly to business leadership. Top coaches combine disciplined preparation with emotional control and social awareness during crunch time and accountability and continual system improvement after the fact.
Win Fin, Flow Fork, Speed Sniffer: Specialized launches 'fastest road bike ever made' in the S-Works Tarmac SL9
American brand draws on Formula 1 lap times software to quantify performance beyond just aero and weight
3M joins Cadillac Formula 1® Team as Official Material Science Partner to accelerate racing performance
/PRNewswire/ -- The Cadillac Formula 1® Team and 3M today announced a multi-year global partnership to push the limits of innovation in the world's toughest...
3M joins Cadillac Formula 1® Team as Official Material Science Partner to accelerate racing performance
Multi-year global partnership will focus on lightweight materials, manufacturing and testing to aid on-track performance ST. PAUL, Minn. and INDIANAPOLIS, June 30, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The...
Iran’s leverage over Strait of Hormuz snarls Trump’s push for a deal
Washington and Tehran are back at the negotiating table after a fragile ceasefire. But experts remain skeptical the two sides are close to a nuclear deal, even as calm oil markets reduce pressure to reach one.
West Palm Beach business collecting items for Venezuela
Across the region, donation drives are collecting baby formula, medical supplies, nonperishable food and other essentials for families affected by the disaster.
Has the McLaren W1 redefined the supercar?
A first drive of the Formula One team’s latest take
Ingredion plans global Benicaros prebiotic expansion across gut and immune health applications
Ingredion highlights that its recent acquisition of the Benicaros prebiotic is a strong strategic addition to its Healthful Solutions portfolio, supporting the company’s formulation versatility alongside expansion of health-forward and clean label ingredients. The company purchased the patented prebiotic fiber, made from upcycled carrot pomace, from NutriLeads earlier this month. With the deal, Ingredion obtained full ownership of all intellectual property, trademarks, human clinical trials, and know-how related to manufacturing Benicaros.
Who slept best last night: George Russell
First win since Melbourne for the man who began the year as Formula 1's pre-season favourite. Is he back in the fight?
American Airlines flight aborts takeoff at MIA after business jet enters runway
An American Airlines flight to Bermuda aborted its takeoff after a business jet entered the same runway at Miami International Airport on Saturday evening.
American Airlines flight aborts takeoff in Miami after business jet enters the same runway
An American Airlines flight headed to Bermuda aborted its takeoff in Miami Saturday evening after a business jet entered the same runway, getting as close as a third of a mile apart at one point.
American Airlines flight aborts takeoff in Miami after business jet enters the same runway
An American Airlines flight headed to Bermuda aborted its takeoff in Miami Saturday evening after a business jet entered the same runway, getting as close as a third of a mile apart at one point.
Fallout from USMNT loss to Turkey and previewing the Mbappe-Haaland clash
On today’s show, we look back at the United States’ final group stage match against Turkey and evaluate their readiness for the Round of 32. Manchester City insider Sam Lee joins us to preview the tournament’s first true superstar heavyweight clash as Kylian Mbappe and France square off against Erling Haaland and Norway in a battle for Group I supremacy. Plus, The Athletic’s Jay Harris is back in the studio to break down the latest bracketology, advancement percentages, and qualification permutations for Groups G, H, and I using The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker.
Trump says Iran strike in Strait of Hormuz is a ‘foolish violation’ of agreement
President Donald Trump called Iran’s strike on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz a “foolish violation” of the agreement to end the war with Tehran, but offered little indication the episode would prompt a return to active hostilities.
Former Steeler says drafting Pat Freiermuth was a mistake
The criticism was voiced on an episode of Cam Heyward’s
Vermont maps out youth mental health peer support initiative
Vermont is preparing to join the Youth Mental Health Corps, a nationwide initiative aimed at tackling the youth mental health crisis.
If Virginia’s ‘best state for business’ ranking falls, data center taxation debate will get the blame
But will Virginia fall? We don’t know yet, but we do know how CNBC has changed its formula. Here’s a look at whether that helps or hurts the state.
What do Canada and Switzerland need to qualify for the World Cup knockouts from Group B?
Discover all the permutations for how the teams in Group B can qualify for the knockout rounds
Roku May Help Fox Avoid Aggregeddon
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Scrolling through links over the last week, I stumbled across this fun headline: Wow. Formula 1 (the sport, not the docu-series) is the perfect “dog not barking”. As a reminder, each week in my Streaming Ratings Report, I call out the shows that miss every viewership chart. I dub them “dogs not barking”—like the Sherlock Holmes mystery—because without any data, we forget they even exist. This is in contrast to something like, say, a film flop—cough The Mandalorian and Grogu cough—where even underperforming at the box office is widely discussed here, there and everywhere. In the US, Formula 1 is now in “no public viewership data, so not discussed” territory. After moving to Apple TV from its former home of ESPN, basically no one talks about it. Apple did publish an initial, unsourced, unsubstantiated, (dare I say unserious) datecdote claiming more folks are watching Formula 1 on Apple than ESPN, but we haven’t gotten any updates since. This stands in contrast to when the sport streamed on ESPN, and ESPN PR provided weekly viewership figures. Formula 1 was, at best, a niche sport in America—averaging 1.3 million viewers in the Big Data Plus era—but now it’s basically anonymous. (And yeah, after moving to Apple, I very, very, very much doubt its ratings increased.) Unfortunately, that story isn’t quite big enough to warrant a section in today’s “Most Important Story of the Week” column, but I wanted to call it out, because otherwise, no one else will! Certainly, no one will write articles about the silence/ratings decline, unlike when they wrote breathless articles connecting the rise in viewership to Netflix’s Drive to Survive, including Reuters just last month. (This is a topic I’ve tried to provide a moderate/nuanced/non-hyped take since 2022.) Anyway, on to this week’s issue. I was a bit worried I didn’t have a juicy topic, then the Murdochs went out and did their Murdoch thing: buying Roku. So that’s the story of the week, and it happens to touch on quite a few themes of the streaming wars and the disruption therein. I’ll cover that, plus why more consolidation in Hollywood media looks likely, more good news on the Hollywood labor front, whether we’ll see an uptick in production in Los Angeles, some Broadway and theme park news, cellphone prices going up in the third world (and possibly everywhere), and more. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - Another Big Media & Entertainment Merger The story of the week is clearly Fox is buying Roku for $22 billion. I read a lot of good strategy takes on why Fox bought this streaming TV device maker—and I’ll have mine below—but what fascinates me more is how this deal connects to quite a few themes of the streaming wars, linking to everything from the pace of M&A to “aggregeddon” to Netflix’s recent M&A actions/inactions to the shift to advertising from pure play streaming and more. The only topic I can’t really connect it to is my old theory, “never bet against Rupert Murdoch” because he isn’t the one who did this deal; his son Lachlan inked it. (Do I think he provided advice, even at his 95 years of age? Sure.) That plus I have one additional piece of strategy for all entertainment players, inspired by this deal. So let’s dive into all those topics, starting with why I like this deal. Roku is a Great M&A Buy
The best Prime Day Lego deals include 'Star Wars' ships, Disney villain cars, and more — top finds start at $28
Lego fans can save big during Amazon Prime Day, with deals on “Harry Potter,” “Star Wars,” Lego Technic, and Ninjago sets, plus builds inspired by Marvel, Disney, “Jurassic World,” Minecraft, Formula 1 racing, and more. We've rounded up Prime Day’s 17 best Lego deals, including several at their lowest prices ever
Oil prices fall after US waives Iran sanctions and peace talks in Switzerland progress
US waives sanctions on Iran for 60 days after first talks in Switzerland to negotiate peace deal; communications line opened to ensure safe passage through strait of Hormuz
Science-Backed Beauty Formulations Market Size and Growth Analysis Study 2026 to 2035
Global Science-Backed Beauty Formulations Market Size is predicted to grow at a 8.6% CAGR during the forecast period for 2026 to 2035. The skincare formulations segment is set to take a large share of the science-backed beauty market. This growth comes from more people focusing on skin health, anti-ageing, acne, hyperpigmentation, and barrier repair.
Roma prepare new formula for Greenwood signing
Roma’s transfer market is about to kick off. With less than two weeks to go until the summer transfer window opens, new sporting director Tony D’Amico wants to make a move immediately and give Gas...
Why Germany's navy could be crucial for the Strait of Hormuz
Despite a tentative US-Iran deal, the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable — posing a major threat to global energy flows. So who will clear the mines, and who can guarantee safe passage for shipping? A European-led mission may soon set sail, with Germany poised to play a central role.
Roundup: Oil shock / AI receptionists / Warsh’s style
‘Baked-in’ damage: Even though the Strait of Hormuz has reopened in principle, analysts say the economic damage from the earlier disruption is already largely “baked in,” since supply chains, inventories and energy markets have already adjusted to shortages and higher costs. Oil prices have eased from their peak, but inflation pressures are expected to persist […]
Back two years later to finish the Newport Bermuda Race
The Newport Bermuda Race, which begins Friday off the shore of Fort Adams State Park, dates to 1906, making it the oldest regularly scheduled ocean race in the world.
More than 1 billion barrels of oil have gone missing
The good news: The Strait of Hormuz is open again, after Iran and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding this week.
San Diego County health officials warn of botulism tied to Nara baby formula
San Diego County public health officials Wednesday urged parents and those who care for children to throw out or return Nara Organics Whole Milk Organic Infant Formula, which has been linked to a multi- state infant botulism outbreak.
Vance's push to get Iran talks started hits an early bump as weekend negotiations are put on hold
The U.S. push to start high-stakes talks with Iran has hit a snag just days just after the two countries agreed to reopen negotiations about Iran’s nuclear program and get oil traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
While God of War Laufey Has Plenty of Promise, I Think It’s Sticking Too Close to the Now-Tired Formula of Kratos’ Norse Saga
While God of War Laufey is taking a fascinating leap by shifting the perspective to Faye, it still looks much too similar to Kratos' Norse saga to cement its own identity.
Six of the biggest health news stories today
High-end infant formula scrutiny, the spread of synthetic opioids, and more health news from Morning Rounds
U.S. and Iran sign initial deal to end war and open Strait of Hormuz
The president defended the agreement, but it has been criticized as a return to the pre-war status quo, with the toughest negotiations still to come.
AI’s growing appetite for power is a public health issue. Here’s a fix
“AI is creating a new and largely overlooked strain on something fundamental to health,” write Sten H. Vermund and Patricia J. Kissinger.
The 14-point US-Iran peace plan, annotated
The memorandum of understanding, MOU, between the US and Iran aims to expand on the ceasefire and get traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S.-Iran Agreement Includes Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon and More: See Full Text of the Deal
A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, disclosed what the official said was the full text of the deal between the two countries.
The Courtroom Battle Over Baby Formula Isn’t About Science
A jury in a Cook County, Illinois, court awarded families $70 million in April after concluding that infant formula caused a devastating illness in premature babies. However, that conclusion hinged on a scientific theory that lacks validated evidence. While the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said its recent study of chemical contamination in infant formula produced by Abbott Laboratories … Continue reading "The Courtroom Battle Over Baby Formula Isn’t About Science"
Trump's Iran agreement raises a basic question: Is it actually a deal?
Trump hails Iran memorandum as normalizing relations, but officials say core issues like sanctions relief and nuclear concessions remain for future talks.
Here Are Tuesday’s Best Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Dynatrace, Emerson Electric, Exxon Mobil, Flutter Entertainment, Genuine Parts, nVent Electric, Palantir Technologies, Roku, and More
Pre-Market Stock Futures: Futures are trading modestly higher after a stunning opening to the week, as all major indices rocketed higher. The announcement of a cease-fire deal with Iran, which the leaders in that country acknowledged, called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz toll-free. While details will still be worked out over the next ... Here Are Tuesday’s Best Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Dynatrace, Emerson Electric, Exxon Mobil, Flutter Entertainment, Genuine Parts, nVent Electric, Palantir Technologies, Roku, and More
Trump claims victory over Iran, but deal is silent on nuclear weapons
The president promised oil would resume flowing through Hormuz, though U.S. and Iranian officials differed over the initial agreement’s terms.
Trump’s Iran accord offers exit from war
The Trump administration and Iran's leadership agreed on Sunday to terms to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a development that has delivered significant relief to global markets.
President Trump says Iran deal is ‘all signed’ and the Strait of Hormuz is ‘partially opened.’
SK Life Science, Inc. Announces FDA Acceptance for Review of New Drug Application for Cenobamate Oral Suspension
Key Facts: FDA has accepted for review the New Drug Application (NDA) for an investigational oral suspension formulation of cenobamate for the treatment of...
Trump sought to break Iran’s regime. He settled for reopening Hormuz.
The emerging agreement ends a costly war but leaves Iran’s leadership intact and its nuclear future still subject to negotiation.
Hormuz Reopening Would Offer Relief for Asia, but Economic Scars Will Remain
For months, Asia has suffered a physical supply crunch that will likely drag on its economies long after the crucial waterway reopens.
Trump celebrates his 80th birthday with an Iran deal and UFC cage fights at the White House
President Donald Trump celebrated his 80th birthday by hosting a UFC cage-fighting event on the White House South Lawn while announcing an initial agreement to end the war in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing oil prices. The spectacle blended politics, entertainment, and diplomacy.
U.S. and Iran reach agreement to end war, Trump says
The deal commits Tehran to forgo the development or acquisition of nuclear weapons in exchange for helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump says US reached a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Trump said the US reached a deal with Iran on Sunday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a possible end to a 15-week conflict that upended global oil markets.
NH health officials warn of infant formula recall linked to botulism outbreak
Nara Organics product sold at Target stores nationwide
Estranged Husband Charged In Slaying Of Winsted Business Owner
The victim had obtained a protective order in April, according to police.
Katie Holmes, Joshua Jackson and the continued power of ’90s nostalgia
The “Dawson’s Creek” duo’s new film premiered the same day as a “Boy Meets World” documentary at the Tribeca Festival, highlighting the different ways that actors can respond to the cultural nostalgia craze.
The Latest: Trump says Iran 'will have to pay the price’
The U.S. military launched airstrikes and Iran retaliated following the crash of an Army helicopter, blamed on a collision with an Iranian drone near the Strait of Hormuz
The Next Generation: Gabriele Mini
In 2026, Motorsport will introduce you to the most promising youngsters on the single-seater scene. First up is Alpine junior Gabriele Mini, who leads the Formula 2 championship with MP Motorsport. We met him on Thursday in Monaco
US Army helicopter goes down, but President Donald Trump says 'pilots are fine'
The New York Times reported that a U.S. Army helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has said 'The pilots are fine.'
We can create the future of science right now
Paul Litvak is the founder and Executive Director of the Robyn Dawes Institute and a Visiting Scholar at UC Berkeley. He has a PhD in Behavioral Decision Research from Carnegie Mellon where he studied emotions and the sunk cost bias. Over 15 years in industry, he solved a wide range of challenging technical problems. At Meta he created models optimizing the ad review process. At Google he ran experiments to measure social influence. At Airbnb, he was a product manager leading machine learning teams optimizing search ranking and price suggestions. He also co-founded and led product at Rhythmic Health, a venture-backed biosensing startup, creating an accurate low cost system using a color changing strip and a smart phone to measure salivary lactate. The bottleneck At this point, it is uncontroversial to say that science needs to stop using the PDF article as the unit of knowledge and currency. The unbearable slowness of scientific publishing, the profit motive and margins: I’m not saying anything new. The PDF also sucks because it’s hard to extract structured information, which makes it hard to do evidence synthesis. As a result, we do much less evidence synthesis than is needed. And evidence synthesis ultimately undergirds most policy and medical decision-making. I can see second-by-second real-time odds for any sporting or newsworthy event, but a school board can’t see the best evidence on whether their 8th graders should be taught algebra. As a society, we don’t treat this as an important problem. Again, not controversial. Not only is the problem well understood, but the solution has already been laid out. What we need is AI-assisted living evidence synthesis - (1) an open knowledge graph of atomic claims, (2) claims linked to evidence, (3) assessment and synthesis of each piece of evidence, and (4) continuous updating with new data. What few realize (yet) is that the technical capacity to build this vision for a significant portion of science already exists. Not only that, scientists and startup teams are already building many of these components. I know this because I’ve been surveying the space and talking to many of the builders. There are some missing pieces: for example, evaluations of how well some of the components work. But at this point, most of what’s missing is a fully end-to-end working integration of all of these parts. In the rest of this essay, I’m going to lay out all the parts of a working living evidence layer for science and who is working on them, and propose concrete next steps for building this system. What’s now possible The diagram above outlines the components of a living evidence synthesis platform, including some of the teams working on each component1. Scientific PDFs are processed into claims with associated evidence. The evidence is subjected to a forensic audit, methodological evaluation and robustness and reproducibility checks. Finally it’s given a weight in a continuously updating synthesis. What follows is a description and status of each component and a few of the teams working on them. Document understanding The first thing you need to be able to do is turn an article into structured data. Mostly that means parsing PDFs. There are often multicolumn layouts that confuse non-specialized PDF to text processing libraries. For scientific papers, there is the added complexity of parsing formulas and tables and figures. This is a really hot area - there are startups offering APIs, and it seems like a new open source package gets posted to Github every few weeks. What follows isn’t exhaustive. A package called GROBID was the state of the art for a while, they didn’t update their package for nearly two years until very recently. In the meantime reducto.ai released an AI powered PDF extraction API, PaddleOCR became popular, IBM released a model called Docling, and both Mistral and Gemini created models and libraries. I also know of at least one other well-funded psychology research group working on a paper parser. By contrast, there are few open evals in this space, with no extensive evals for complex table comprehension in particular. Nonetheless, I’m confident this will be a solved problem soon, given the combination of LLM advances and developer interest. Hypothesis level extraction There has been increasing interest in comprehending the extracted text of papers and linking information to evidence for each hypothesis. A lot of work has already been done. Trialstreamer (Marshall et al. 2020) and RobotReviewer LIVE (Marshall et al. 2023) demonstrated automated extraction of trial population, intervention, and outcome at scale on clinical RCTs. PaperQA2 (Skarlinski et al. 2024) and Ai2 ScholarQA (2024) extended this to retrieval-augmented question answering with citation grounding. Elicit, Consensus, and SciSpace operationalized claim-level extraction for end users. OpenEval (Booeshaghi et al. 2026) is the most recent and most ambitious: 1.96 million atomic claims extracted from 16,087 eLife manuscripts using Claude Sonnet 4.5, grouped into ~299,000 results, with LLM evaluations showing 81% agreement with human peer review on a 2,487-paper subset. None of these solutions link claims to test-statistics, as you would need to evaluate randomized controlled trials. This is why I built the evidence.guide API - to extract hypotheses and associated test statistics from behavioral science papers. The best public eval of this kind of extraction I’m aware of comes from the recent SCORE project - they had humans code thousands of psychology papers to extract their claims by hand. It would be extremely helpful to the world if all scientific PDFs were available as structured open data. I’ve been working to make this happen, both directly at Berkeley and through coordination with large entities I can’t yet speak of; as hard as it is to do, I think it’s possible2. Forensic audit A lot of work has been done on forensic audit, but some gaps remain. Of course, for biology papers that rely on images for evidence, there are a variety of tools (notably Proofig and ImageTwin) to spot anomalies. These are still well short of what sleuths like Elizabeth Bik can do on her own, but these tools are constant companions among fraud analysts. There’s someone working on auditing Excel files for anomalies, and a number of teams are automating numerical checks like GRIM and SPRITE, including Scrutiny project, the INSPECT-SR team as well as statcheck. The regcheck team is building a way to use AI to compare preregistrations to analyses in papers, to ensure there aren’t significant deviations. Nonetheless, there are many other kinds of anomalies to screen for, both public and less publicly known. And there are no formal evals for anomaly detection that I’m aware of. Still, there’s a lot to draw from in this space and I’m pretty certain we will be able to scan papers for most kinds of obvious anomalies in the near future. Methodological review This area has been white hot, though I fear for many of the startups in this space, because this capability may become commoditized. There are at least six different AI peer review companies, including Refine.ink, Reviewer3, ReviewerZero.ai, Q.E.D. Science, Paper Wizard, and Isitcredible. Coarse (a pun on refine) was also recently created as an open source alternative. These systems provide qualitative feedback on the content of papers, spotting methodological weaknesses and mathematical errors. They seem to work pretty well, and many academics report bitterly that they exceed the average quality of typical peer reviewers. But there are few evals here either. What evals exist so far involve using LLM-as-judge (circularity problems abound) or comparing against human reviews of questionable quality. What you’d ideally want is an eval that measures capturing known errors in papers3. Reproducibility and robustness Another active area has been using AI agents to automate computational reproducibility4 and robustness5 checks in papers that report numerical results. For more recent papers where data and code are available, AI agents can see whether they can re-run the analyses and produce the numbers reported in the published paper. In addition to a handful of individual academics who have been experimenting using Claude Code for this, the Institute for Replication is a leading group working on building an end to end system. The evals related to this problem are the most mature, with CORE-Bench (Siegel, Kapoor, Narayanan 2024) and PaperBench (OpenAI 2025) available to benchmark agents on this task. There is also work on getting AI agents to test alternative ways of analyzing the data to ensure the results are robust to small analytic design choices. Synthesis This is the most underdeveloped area where significant investment is required. Although some automated evidence synthesis systems exist — for example, otto-sr is building an AI agent to write systematic reviews — none of these incorporate the full range of paper level signals to weight evidence appropriately. Nor is there anything like an eval or a gold standard for a good systematic review. Arguably Cochrane reviews are the closest we have to gold standard human systematic reviews, though I’ve heard academics in the know complain about their uneven quality. A key question for a synthesis platform is how to weight anomalies and methodological issues in assessing the quality of a piece of evidence. This is an unsolved problem and one I’m very keen to work on. Continuous updating There are many pieces of basic infrastructure available for monitoring for new research and initiating updates. OpenAlex is the current open citation graph. Retraction Watch integrated into Crossref in October 2023. Scite tracks how citations support, contrast, or mention prior claims. The Living Evidence Network demonstrated continuous-update workflows in clinical guidelines. Engineering this is a relatively straightforward task. When you look over this technical architecture and all the progress being made, it’s hard not to be optimistic that a living guide to scientific evidence will be built. The stakeholders are ready The social infrastructure for this is starting to coalesce — it’s not just a pie in the sky academic exercise to imagine this coming into existence. Institutions like the Center for Open Science, the Institute for Replication, the INSPECT-SR, the Living Evidence Network and more are all working on scaling work to improve research quality. Funders are also aligned. The Sloan Foundation has funded living evidence work through COS. Coefficient Giving supports the Institute for Replication and COS. The Astera Institute and the Institute for Progress have shown interest in this space. NIH has established an Office for Replication and Reproducibility. Although there are (very unfortunately) serious headwinds in science funding generally, there is an active group of funders interested in metascience. A brief word about what I’ve been doing at RDI. First, as a Visiting Scholar at Berkeley I’ve been actively figuring out how a non-profit and a public university can conduct and make public the results of large-scale academic article data mining. With some of the money I raised from donors, I commissioned a legal analysis of recent case law and publisher text data mining (TDM) agreements in order to understand whether a massive open data mining of academic articles is possible (with caveats, it is). I’ve also been working to bring together stakeholders in this space, and identify gaps. I’ve also been doing some software development in this space, with more to come. A pilot proposal The assumption undergirding all of this is that an AI, given all this information, would make the right judgment about a scientific claim with lots of conflicting evidence, weighing all the factors appropriately. That’s the hypothesis we need to test. Randomized control trial research is the best place to focus on first. RCTs are used to make many of the important decisions in society - from medical trials to public policy changes. And they use a relatively uniform set of inferential statistics with lots of known and available diagnostics. Behavioral science experiments, within the broader realm of RCTs, should be first used as a testbed whose results can be generalized. Because behavioral science is at the vanguard of open science practices, replications abound (there are thousands of them) to serve as ground truth training data. Key Hypothesis Therefore the pilot would test, in behavioral RCTs that have been replicated, whether the quality of evidence for a claim can be used to accurately predict whether that claim will replicate. Secondary Hypotheses Compared to claims that replicated, non-replicated claims demonstrate a greater share of forensic anomalies in their source literatures. Hypothesis level claim and statistic extraction is accurate enough to scale living evidence without onerous human review costs. Replication prediction is more accurate than prediction markets6 or journal prestige. If all the different quality signals we gather do accurately predict which studies will replicate, then we can use that model to score evidence to power the living evidence layer. Why this is informative regardless of outcome If the pilot succeeds, the architecture extends to medical RCTs (where Living Evidence already operates and integration is mostly about claim representation), then to slices of basic biology with stable replication structure. If it fails, the field learns which quality signals are load-bearing and which ones metascience has oversold. Either result is a contribution to knowing what the literature supports. Implications for funders Because this burgeoning ecosystem of builders already exists, a well-informed philanthropic or government funder could play a crucial catalyzing role in bringing this future about. They could play at least three roles: creating open structured datasets, publishing open benchmarks and incentivizing the solving of key technical challenges. First, open archives of papers that the government maintains, like PubMed, could be turned into structured data amenable to large scale metascience and claim aggregation. I know the US government already has an interest in doing this, though some key open questions remain unanswered. How do you determine the best models and systems for accurately extracting information from papers? How can you establish a robust way to allow researchers to flag errors and correct them? And finally, how do you create a legal regime in working with publishers to maximize the scope of available papers? For the latter, a university or a private philanthropy may be better positioned to make structured data publicly available under journal subscription terms or fair use. Philanthropists or government funders could also coordinate to create or commission benchmarks that evaluate whether important problems have been solved. For example, an open benchmark for claim extraction from a range of different scientific article types would be extremely helpful. Ensuring the underlying data are accurate is vital for creating these evaluations. I’ve discussed opportunistically using various human-created datasets for this purpose, but a consistent problem is that errors in human data make it difficult for them to serve as a gold standard. Finally, with structured data and benchmarks available, the government or private philanthropy could use them to incentivize groups to develop machine learning systems that meet these benchmarks. Prizes are one potentially valuable tool for this. For example, you could establish a prize for a system that accurately updates a living meta-analysis for a small set of claims. Prizes are particularly useful as signals of problem importance, and can help create vibrant ecosystems of public and private research—see, for example the role the government played in kickstarting the current work on nuclear fusion. Conclusion The drawbacks of the current scientific publishing system are known. Scientists agree, metascientists agree, philanthropists agree: the published PDF plus citation graph isn’t the right substrate for maintaining a representation of the evidence base in science. The pieces needed to build the alternative either already exist or are rapidly taking shape. The community is forming around exactly this problem, with concrete partnerships and shared infrastructure. A pilot should start on behavioral science RCTs because that’s the slice of empirical science most amenable to legibility, where replication ground truth is richest, and where the failure modes are best documented. What’s been missing is the galvanizing mission to assemble these pieces into something that works. That’s what I’m proposing to build. *** 1 I have a broader field map that I’ll release publicly soon. This is me, building in public! 2 If this is something that you are excited about, please reach out and talk to me. 3 More on this very soon too! 4 This tests whether, given the code and the data, you can get the same statistics as reported in the published paper. 5 This tests whether the results are the same as a paper’s given alternative analytical decisions in conducting the analysis (like outlier omission). Closely related is the idea of a “multiverse” where you come up with many different ways of answering the same underlying research question with the same data, and test whether the results hold in all those alternative methods. There’s been work on the latter as well. 6 Some of the replications, e.g. those from the SCORE project, had paired the experiments with forecasts from prediction markets. So we get to look at this for free.
The ultimate hostage negotiation: Why Iran talks are deadlocked
As President Donald Trump searches for a way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Washington and Tehran appear to be engaged in a standard negotiation.
ProBiotix Health targets long-term women’s health beyond menopause symptom support
Women’s health research is growing, and scientists are learning that supporting consumers through menopause means going beyond addressing symptoms. Cellan Davies, head of marketing at ProBiotix Health, tells Nutrition Insight which menopause-support ingredients and formulation approaches are gaining the most traction within women’s health.
Backfire News Weekly Recap: June 4–6, 2026
It was a packed week on Backfire News, with coverage spanning Formula 1, NASCAR history, truck culture, collector cars, and a few somber losses across the racing world. Thirteen posts went live between June 4 and June 6, 2026. Here is the full rundown. Formula 1 in the Spotlight F1 dominated the week. A feature on the Monaco Grand Prix experience explored why the street circuit remains the sport's most iconic and unusual weekend, while a look at a $75 million superyacht captured the glamour that
Portugal's Rafael Leão Sent Off For Punching In World Cup Warmup Win Over Chile
Portugal forward Rafael Leão has been sent off for punching an opponent in a 2-1 win over Chile in a World Cup warmup in Lisbon.
Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth shares early takeaways on Drew Allar
The Steelers’ tight end had some nice words for his new quarterback.
FIA and Liberty push to find F1 2027 engine solution to be approved over Spanish GP
New fuel flow increase limits could salvage proposed tweaks to the 2027 engine formula following objections from Ferrari and Audi
BevNET Live: Everwell Health showcases science-backed functional beverage ingredients
Wellness ingredients supplier Everwell Health will be showcasing its “Ingredients for Life” portfolio of functional beverage solutions for caffeine-free energy, concentration, protein, and weight loss at the upcoming BevNET Live event next week in New York City, US (June 10–11). Everwell Health experts will be present at the show, highlighting how the company’s ingredients can help formulators create differentiated beverages that meet growing consumer demand for convenient, multifunctional, and health-focused beverages.
Max Verstappen Demands a “New Back” As Red Bull’s Brutal RB22 Suspension Setup Threatens Monaco Disaster
Max Verstappen isn’t mincing words about the brutal physical and mechanical toll the 2026 Red Bull RB22 is taking on his body. As Formula 1 heads into the tight, unforgiving streets of the Monaco Grand Prix, the world champion’s frustrations…
DC Wrap: House passes war powers resolution; Trump 'perturbed' by Netanyahu
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
WATCH: Johnson says Trump wants U.S. allies to help reopen Strait of Hormuz
EA SPORTS launch F1 25 2026 Season Pack worldwide
EA SPORTS have launched the 2026 Season Pack for F1 25, adding the latest regulations, cars, teams, driver line-ups, and the virtual Madring circuit.
EA SPORTS™ launch the 2026 Season Pack on F1® 25 worldwide today | Formula One World Championship Limited
EA SPORTS™ has today launched the 2026 Season Pack, a major downloadable update for the championship’s official video game, F1® 25, bringing the sport’s 202 ...
Kevin Magnussen Is Finally Coming to NASCAR
After years competing at the highest levels of motorsports, former Formula 1 driver Kevin Magnussen is finally getting his shot in NASCAR. The Danish racing veteran will make his Cup Series debut with Trackhouse Racing's Project 91 program at San…
Pokémon GO Fest Chicago 2026: Top Spawns, Shinies & Best Pokémon to Catch (Raid & PvP Guide)
Good day, Pokémon Trainers! Pokémon GO Fest season is upon us and it promises to bring about some big changes to the formula! But this brings up the ever-popular question, What are the best Pokémon to catch? Well, not to worry fellow trainer, I’m here to help narrow the field! But before we get to […]
Charles Leclerc: Ferrari driver signs two-year contact extension until 2028 with team ahead of home Monaco Grand Prix
Ferrari announce contract renewal with Charles Leclerc ahead of his home race in Monaco; Sky Sports News understands previous deal was set to expire at the end of this year; watch every session of the Monaco GP from Friday, live on Sky Sports F1
Scientists uncover Feynman’s formula for finding best holiday restaurant
Late physicist turned issue of when to stop searching for a better place to eat into mathematical problem
Weight Loss Drugs Listed By Health Insurers Aren’t Necessarily Covered
Inclusion of weight loss drugs on insurer formularies is a meaningful step towards expanding access. But having a product listed doesn’t necessarily mean it’s covered.
2027 NFL Draft Summer Report: Matayo Uiagalelei, edge, Oregon
Check out the 2027 summer scouting report for Oregon EDGE Matayo Uiagalelei is ready.
Glyco Harmony Drops [URGENT REPORT 2026] GlycoHarmony Shocking Complete Scientific Breakdown of Benefits Everyone Is Talking
Explore the science behind Glyco Harmony. Get a detailed explanation of its ingredients, benefits, potential effects, and how the formula may support healthy glucose metabolism. Glyco Harmony Glyco Harmony New York City, NY, May 31, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- As awareness of metabolic health continues to rise worldwide, consumers are increasingly searching for products that can help support healthy blood sugar levels, improve overall wellness, and complement healthy lifestyle choices. Learn what’s
Offense Struggles As Guardians Drop Game 2
It was a rough game for the Guardians on Saturday. Travis Bazzana went 2-4 with two doubles, and José Ramírez went 1-3 with an RBI double and a walk. Petey Halpin also went 2-4 with a double. Other than that, it was a really tough day for the offense. I’m not worried about them long […]
Adrian Newey’s Health Flagged As Crucial Factor in Aston Martin’s Recovery by Franz Tost
Aston Martin’s heavily hyped 2026 Formula One campaign has turned into an absolute nightmare. Despite securing the services of legendary designer Adrian Newey and reigning engine champions Honda, the Silverstone squad is currently languishing at the very bottom of the…
After Rich Colleges Raid Basketball Team, School Exits D1 Sports
(Bloomberg) -- Saint Francis University was out of its league, and Father Malachi Van Tassell knew it.Most Read from BloombergSingapore Hands Byju's Founder His First Ever Jail TermIran’s Khamenei Says No Going Back for Middle East Rocked by WarTwo More Oil Supertankers Exit Hormuz to Help Push Up FlowsEx-President Biden Sues to Stop DOJ Sharing Interview Tapes‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Studio Draws Tencent Music InvestmentBigger, richer universities were raiding its men’s basketball team, luring away
Amid statewide race losing streak, Minnesota Republicans look for a new formula for success
Minnesota Republicans will convene this weekend in Duluth to endorse candidates in several statewide races. They split on whether steering candidates closely aligned to President Donald Trump or those seen as more politically moderate will be the best path to victory in November.
Are We Still Taking The Wrong Supplements For Our Gut-Health?
Experts question modern gut health and supplement culture, as Professor Paul Clayton of LYMA warns many probiotics and wellness formulas may be fundamentally incomplete.
Croma Skincare – Where Science Meets Skin
LEOBENDORF, Austria, May 26, 2026--With Croma Skincare, Austrian family-owned company Croma Pharma translates decades of expertise in aesthetic medicine into a modern skincare line designed for everyday results. Rather than following short-lived trends, Croma focuses on scientifically proven ingredients and pharmaceutical-grade formulations that deliver visible performance while fitting seamlessly into daily routines.
Pokémon GO Fest Tokyo 2026: Top Spawns, Shinies & Best Pokémon to Catch (Raid & PvP Guide)
Good day, Pokémon Trainers! Pokémon GO Fest season is upon us and it promises to bring about some big changes to the formula! But this brings up the ever-popular question, What are the best Pokémon to catch? Well, not to worry fellow trainer, I’m here to help narrow the field! But before we get to […]
Semiconductor decoupling. Powell's politics. Industrializing Ogaden. Free trade and the Magna Carta.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Feliks Topolski, 1907-1989 8th Army’s Front, Italy 1944 Semiconductor decoupling Source: FT One thing that Jerome Powell deeply understood is that chairing the Fed under current conditions is a deeply political job. “Powell has successes and mistakes to his name. But he stands out as having thought more carefully about the Fed’s democratic legitimacy than any chair since Paul Volcker,” said Paul Tucker, a former deputy governor at the Bank of England, referring to the Fed chair who successfully fought the great inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. … While Powell was at the Treasury in the early 1990s, he watched Alan Greenspan build relationships within the government. That convinced Powell he needed to follow the former Fed chair’s lead and spend more time in Congress than his predecessors Yellen and Bernanke. “The accountability for the Fed runs through Congress,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed official who is now chief economist at New Century Advisors. “That’s not just about having people on speed dial — it’s answering questions, explaining policy and getting feedback.” Source: FT Ethiopia’s PM Abiy and Nigerian business tycoon, with Chinese engineering, are driving industrialization in Ogaden/Somali region of Ethiopia. - Michael Masri’s reporting for Africa Report if fascinating. Ethiopia has launched a cluster of large industrial schemes in the Somali region, laying foundation stones for a urea plant and an oil refinery in Gode while opening the first two phases of the Ogaden LNG project. Abiy Ahmed framed the push as part of a broader strategy to link energy, agriculture and industry. “These projects embody more than industrial growth,” he said. “They represent our shared responsibility to harness opportunities, strengthen co-operation and promote peace.” The Gode urea plant, backed by Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), is designed for 3m tonnes a year. Dangote owns 60%, while EIH holds 40%. Officials say Dangote’s equity totals about $2.5bn, while the state provides land and implementation oversight. Gas from the Calub fields will be piped 108km to the site. Construction is slated for 40 months, with operations targeted for 2028. Ethiopia imports most of its fertiliser, spending more than $1.2bn a year for 1.5m–2m tonnes. Usage was roughly 1.7m tonnes in 2023, almost half of it urea, and demand for 2024–25 is put above 2.4m tonnes. If delivered on time, the Gode plant could cover domestic needs and allow exports to neighbours. Brook Taye, chief executive of EIH, called the venture “a significant milestone in the journey toward industrial self-sufficiency”. Dangote told the groundbreaking crowd that the complex would be integrated with gas supply and a polypropylene unit to support local inputs. He pointed to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with a capacity of more than 5,000MW, and noted his group’s cement operations and expansion plans. The Gode refinery is being developed by Golden Concord Group of China. It is designed to process 3.5m tonnes a year of crude and condensate from the Hilala field, with associated storage. Backers say it will ease foreign-exchange pressure from fuel imports and anchor further industrial activity, including a proposed steel smelting site in Dire Dawa. GCL’s chair, Zhu Gongshan, cast the project as “a key step in Ethiopia’s path to energy sovereignty”, underscoring the Beijing–Addis ties. Financing details are still being finalised, but the refinery is central to the government’s energy-security narrative. Source: The Africa Report Dangote’s Ethiopian vision: Dangote began with cement. His crown jewel, Dangote Cement, dominates Nigeria’s market and has 10 operations in other nations in Africa. The formula has been consistent: identify sectors with chronic shortages – cement, fertiliser, sugar – commit massive local investments, and scale up to serve regional demand. Ethiopia was a natural extension of that model. In 2015, Dangote launched the Mugher Cement Plant outside Addis Ababa at a cost of $600m, with an annual capacity of 2.5 million tonnes. The investment gave him a firm foothold in one of Africa’s fastest-growing construction markets. But success came with risks. In May 2018, violent unrest led to the killing of Dangote’s country manager and temporary shutdowns at Mugher. While other investors might have retreated, Dangote doubled down. Today, he is preparing to spend $400m to expand Mugher’s capacity to 5 million tonnes, alongside a new grinding unit near Addis Ababa. Cement is just one market Dangote is targeting. Ethiopia’s enormous state-controlled sugar industry, long plagued by inefficiency and debt, has struggled for years to reform. Its Omo Kuraz Sugar Development Project, touted as one of the continent’s largest initiatives, continues to face delays and mismanagement. … The most ambitious venture of all is the planned fertiliser production complex in Gode, Somali region. Publicised on 28 August 2025, the Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH) deal plans one of the world’s largest single-site urea manufacturing plants. The project costs an estimated $2.5bn and has an estimated capacity of 3 million metric tonnes annually, a rate that would not only render Ethiopia independent, but even a net exporter of fertiliser. EIH, the state wealth fund of Ethiopia, will hold 40%, while 60% is held by Dangote Group. … For Dangote, Ethiopia is a trifecta: Cement demand is projected to grow by 10% annually, its sugar consumption is growing with rapid urbanisation, and fertiliser demand is all but insatiable, given that farming supports the livelihood of 70% of Ethiopians. Source: The Africa Report The stakes for Abiy are high: For Addis Ababa, the $4bn fertiliser project in Ethiopia’s Somali region is no longer simply a manufacturing investment. It is increasingly being framed as a strategic state project tied to food sovereignty, import substitution and the government’s broader attempt to build economic resilience under mounting fiscal pressure. “Becoming self-sufficient in food is our main agenda,” Abiy says during the visit. “Land is needed; we have it. Water is needed; we have it. Human resources are needed; we have it.” The scale is enormous even by African industrial standards. Once operational, the plant is expected to produce three million metric tonnes of urea annually, potentially making it one of the continent’s largest fertiliser complexes. Ethiopian officials say the project now includes a 110km gas pipeline, a 120MW power plant, a polypropylene packaging facility and a two-million-tonne NPK blending plant. For a government grappling with chronic foreign exchange shortages, ballooning import bills and pressure on agricultural productivity, the numbers matter politically as much as they do economically. The decision to anchor the project in Gode is deliberate. Long viewed as peripheral to Ethiopia’s industrial economy, the Somali region is now being repositioned by the federal government as a future irrigation and agro-industrial corridor. Officials argue that the area’s vast land reserves and access to water could eventually support large-scale commercial farming capable of reshaping Ethiopia’s food economy. The government is simultaneously building housing infrastructure for about 5,000 residents near the plant, while officials project broader industrial expansion along the corridor. Abiy goes further, comparing the long-term revenue potential of the Gode development zone with Ethiopia’s flagship state enterprise. “The investments we are making in this Gode area, combined, will generate high revenue for Ethiopia, at par with Ethiopian Airlines,” he says. Source: The Africa Report Feliks Topolski 1907-1982 Topolski’s Chronicle, ‘Nazi Revival’, Vol. 8, Is. 1-2, 1960 HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. Photo by Jakub Dziubak on Unsplash If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Grim vision of drone warfare by Sylvie Kaufmann For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe The state of the art in Colbert-studies. Jean-Baptiste Colbert was Louis XIV chief minister from 1661 to 1683 and traditionally seen as an architect of absolutism and mercantilism. Alexander Hamilton later cited him as an inspiration in 1782. Now his legacy is disputed. Daniel Dessert, the chief critic, sees Colbert as the orchestrator not so much of an absolutist state as of an elite cabal. Would be great to have a good English-language review of this important debate. Source: lhistoire Didn’t know that the Magna Carta included free trade provisions Fighting for the right to the beach in Oregon in 1967: Source: Research Gate RAF Station – British and Polish Flags, c. 1940-45, The Ingram Collection Feliks Topolski, 1907-1989 ink and wash If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
Steelers restructure TE Pat Freiermuth’s contract
Pittsburgh frees up some cap space ahead of training camp.
Video: Trump Says U.S. Close to Peace Agreement With Iran
President Trump said on Saturday the United States was close to reaching a deal with Iran toward ending the war there. The deal, which he said would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, was subject to finalization by the U.S., Iran, and other countries.
Britain Preparing for Mission That Could Clear Strait of Hormuz
At Gibraltar, at the tip of Spain, British forces are ready to deploy autonomous mine-hunting equipment if a peace agreement is achieved.
Trump says Iran deal ‘largely negotiated’ as 84-day war nears possible end
President Donald Trump announced progress toward a deal with Iran after talks with regional leaders, saying final details will be announced shortly.
How a bold Williams headhunting drive shows that James Vowles means business
Team Principal James Vowles has outlined how hiring Piers Thynne from McLaren demonstrates Williams' ambitions for the future.
Forget the 11-year solar cycle, a single space storm can send a shockwave through your local forecast
The regular solar cycle is a mere climate murmur, but sudden geomagnetic jolts are a different story. These high-altitude outbursts appear to be hijacking the polar vortex to rewrite weather on the ground.
German Business Confidence Edges Higher Though War Concerns Still Weigh
Sentiment rebounded marginally this month, though remained near multiyear lows, as companies adapted to the energy shock prompted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Guzman Y Gomez Gives Up on Failing US Business; Shares Soar
(Bloomberg) -- Australian burrito chain Guzman y Gomez Ltd. said it’s closing its Chicago restaurants and exiting the US after failing to generate adequate sales. The company’s shares soared.Most Read from BloombergSpot the Difference: Putin Gets Trump Treatment From Xi in ChinaIran Says the US’s Latest Proposal Has ‘Narrowed the Gaps’Modi’s Toffee Gift to Meloni Ignites Rally in Wrong Indian StockIran in Talks With Oman Over Permanent Hormuz Toll SystemDow Average Climbs to Record on US-Iran De
World Health Assembly Condemns Iranian Strikes On Gulf States, Health Fallout Of Hormuz Closure
The World Health Assembly (WHA) voted 91-2 to adopt a resolution condemning Iranian attacks on civilian infrastructure across Gulf countries amid its war with
Scientists discover strange “narwhal” waves that trap light beyond known limits
Physicists at Peking University have uncovered a new way to confine light far beyond conventional limits — without relying on metals and their inherent energy dissipation. By formulating the singular dispersion equation, the team discovered narwhal-shaped wavefunctions that trap light at deep-subwavelength volumes in purely dielectric materials. The advance, dubbed singulonics, could pave the way for ultra-efficient photonic chips, new quantum technologies, and imaging tools with unprecedented resolution.
Rewrite the Grid: EA SPORTS™ Reveals F1® 25: 2026 Season Pack
The story continues with the 2026 Season Pack* for EA SPORTS’™ F1® 25, Featuring New Teams, Drivers Rosters, Rules Regulations, and MADRING Track Watch the Reveal Trailer Here Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA) invites players to rewrite the grid in the all-new 2026 Season Pack* for EA SPORTS’™ F1 ® 25 , the official video game of the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship™, coming to PlayStation®5, Xbox Series X|S and PC on June 3, 2026. The 2026 Season Pack welcomes in a groundbreaking new era of F1®, featuring the updated rules and regulations for the 2026 F1® season, the introduction of two teams: Audi Cadillac, and their driver rosters to the grid, new action-packed gameplay features, and the highly anticipated MADRING circuit; the first new F1® circuit since 2023. The F1® 25: 2026 Season Pack continues to innovate the iconic racing experience. Implementing real-world regulation changes, the 2026 Season Pack showcases lighter, smaller cars† with active
'Leeds must seize this moment at all costs'
After a tremendous finish to the season, Daniel Farke has called for Leeds United to invest heavily this summer. Had Farke found the formula faster, Leeds would be challenging for Europe. With meaningful investment and using these tactics from the start of next season, United could realistically place much higher than their current position of 14th.
Hands On: The Classic Zelda Formula Is In Safe Hands With 'The Adventures Of Elliot'
Missing Link
Other sports have strict rules against multi-team ownership. Why doesn’t F1?
Many major sports have clear rules that prevent organizations owning multiple teams, so why is this not the case in Formula 1?
Sen. Lindsey Graham says status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is ‘hurting us all’
The South Carolina senator called on President Donald Trump to renew U.S. attacks on Iran amid a fragile ceasefire and stalled negotiations.
Now What? With Carbon Pricing Eroded and Pipeline Politics Advancing, Here Are the Pathways for Climate Success
At the end of a whirlwind week of news on carbon pricing and electricity strategy, capping a madcap year of pretty much non-stop, dramatic change, the word across much of Canada’s climate and energy transition community is that climate policy in this country has been shredded. Eviscerated. Hit with a sledgehammer by policy rollbacks that have pushed the country’s 2050 net zero target “well out of reach”. That means it’s never been more important to look for the rays of hope and glimmers of possibility. To glimpse the seeds of the next set of strategies to get Canada’s climate pollution under control and the country into the accelerating global dash away from fossil fuels. And then, once we’ve spotted those possibilities, get on with the hard, day-to-day slog of trying to make them a reality. Nothing takes away from the frustration and the deep disappointment so many climate and energy hawks are expressing, the sense of betrayal by the author of Value(s) and the former UN special envoy for climate action and finance. But we knew two things as the week drew to a close. We’re looking at the world as it most definitely is. And we don’t get to give up finding the pathways to confront climate change and deliver faster, deeper carbon cuts that leave no one else behind. So really, the first question we all have to ask ourselves is: What’s next? Subscribe All the Oxygen in the Room The outpouring of anger and grief over the carbon pricing deal between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been absolutely understandable. So much of the climate community poured years, more than a decade, into dragging the current federal pricing regime across the finish line, then defending it from a deluge of three-syllable rhymes after the Trudeau government proved utterly incapable of delivering its own message. The policy foisted on us by neo-classical economists took up all the oxygen in the room, burned through years of climate response time that we won’t get back, while cornering climate hawks into the position that the best response to the crisis of our lifetimes is a new tax…in an era of historic anti-tax sentiment. I mean, really—what could possibly have gone wrong? Against that history, let’s appreciate columnist Max Fawcett’s point that even a modest carbon pricing agreement with a government as off-the-wall libertarian/conspiracist as Danielle Smith’s—those adjectives are mine, not Max’s—is a win worth savouring (as long as Smith keeps her promises for a change). But part of living in the world as it is (no, I’m not letting that go) is to be clear-headed about what we can and can’t control. And one thing we get to decide, after seeing this week’s carbon price festivities take up all the oxygen yet again, is whether we want to keep letting that happen. Particularly when success down that road depends on a factor that no one with a climate agenda can control or influence—a provincial carbon pricing mechanism that has been manipulated and eroded beyond its lowest possible denominator. Thankfully, that’s not the way it has to go. Not when we have so many other powerful, practical tools at our disposal, including the ones still available to us through this abominable Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Canada and Alberta. Tools In Our Toolbox When I started roughing out this list, I didn’t expect it to grow to nearly a dozen bullet points. It’s probably still incomplete. Some of the greatest hits in today’s climate solutions toolbox include: • No Carbon Capture, No Pipeline: On Friday, Prime Minister Mark Carney explicitly stated that there’s been no change to the MOU provision that there will be no West Coast pipeline without an industry commitment to build its massive, $16.5-billion carbon capture and storage (CCUS) hub in Northern Alberta, and vice versa. The two megaprojects were joined at the hip when the MOU was signed Nov. 27, and the implementation agreement this week affirmed that they still are. A parade of independent analysts have spent years pointing to the economic and technical flaws in CCUS, while the industry kept postponing its investment decision until it could arm-twist the government for more “clarity” (by which it meant even more lavish taxpayer subsidies) on the project. Now the industry itself is running away from the CCUS hub and insisting the pipeline should proceed without it, but Carney doesn’t seem to be budging from a central tenet of the MOU to which Smith has signed on. • No Subsidies, No Investors: Climate analysts and advocates have quite rightly been hammering away at Carney and his team, insisting that any new capacity the industry wants to build must proceed without new subsidies. The government has responded with a growing collection of funding and financing mechanisms for the very wide menu of industrial development and nation-building projects they say they want to take on, and that menu always includes fossil fuel infrastructure. But it’s hard to see how even the combined fiscal clout of the federal and supportive provincial governments will deliver the financial backing private investors would need when the business case for new fossil fuel development is evaporating before their eyes. Particularly when… • No Market, No Demand, No Investors: As our friend Markham Hislop at Energi Media (our apparently sleepless friend, given the massive volume of great material he’s been churning out) points out this morning, the biggest vulnerability in any pipeline deal is the assumption that Asian buyers will want the oil or liquefied natural ga that our fossil industry is so keen to send them. Hislop writes in part: Ottawa and Alberta are effectively betting that countries like China and India will continue increasing oil imports for decades as their economies grow and energy consumption rises. That assumption underpins the entire economic rationale for expanding oil sands production and building billions of dollars in new export infrastructure. But Asian energy systems are changing rapidly… China, India, South Korea, and other major hydrocarbon importers are now investing hundreds of billions of dollars into electricity systems built around wind, solar, batteries, nuclear, hydro, and expanded transmission infrastructure. Domestic “energy sovereignty” is increasingly replacing the old energy-security model based on stable oil and gas imports. Those investments are expected to sharply slow oil demand growth and eventually reverse it, even as overall energy consumption continues rising. There are also refining constraints. Many Asian refineries and petrochemical complexes are already optimized to process discounted heavy crude from the Middle East and Latin America. That raises serious questions about how much additional Canadian bitumen Asian markets can absorb at profitable prices. Small wonder that there’s still no private sector investor for the project, despite Smith’s government desperately beating the bushes to put together a deal. For now, Alberta is acting as proponent and covering early start-up costs for a pitch to the federal Major Projects Office, which could actually turn into the next tough hurdle for Smith and her pipeline to jump. • Canada Day Looms: How ironic that Canada’s birthday this year could become a major chokepoint for the provincial premier who’s been working so diligently to tear the country apart! The July 1 target date for Alberta’s pipeline proposal is baked into the MOU, was reaffirmed by the implementation plan, but it hadn’t dawned on me that it cuts both ways. As one very smart colleague wrote in an email yesterday, “they’ve thrown the ball into Alberta’s court to get the project proposal on the table really quickly and to have to do a whole pile of work to put together a massive, complicated project that would typically take years to assemble, and they’ve given them weeks to do it.” That makes July 1 a looming deadline that Smith won’t be able to run away from politically, especially with the separatists in her party and her caucus breathing down her neck. (See previous ref to off-the-wall.) But if Alberta comes in with a sloppy, incomplete submission, even after Carney bent over backwards to simplify the application process and the rules that govern it, it may be harder for the province or the industry to blame Ottawa and insist on the faster process they claim their investors are demanding. (Oh, wait—which investors would those be??) • We’ll See You In Court (Then We’ll See You Again): If Carney did cave, that would be just one more reason for Indigenous and other affected communities to take the government and the process to court—Just as Alberta First Nations did, successfully, in response to Smith’s half-baked separation referendum. Veterans of the Harper era have been warning that a shoddy process around fossil fuel infrastructure or other major projects will be a recipe for the very delays that process seeks to avoid. And now more than ever, with renewable energy and energy storage eating fossil fuels’ lunch in import markets around the world, a delayed pipeline or LNG terminal may be as good as a cancelled one. • Charged Up, Ready to Go: With its goal of doubling Canada’s electricity supply to meet a doubling of demand by 2050, the national electricity strategy that Carney unveiled Thursday has a lot to like. With its explicit language about speeding the shift from fuels to more efficient and affordable electricity, global investment and deployment patterns that already favour that shift, an emerging bidirectional power grid, the role of front-line options like rooftop solar and heat pumps, the emergence of electric vehicles as behind-the-meter energy storage, and the domestic jobs and manufacturing to make it all happen, the document doubles down on the essential cornerstone of a faster shift off fossil fuels. The strategy envisions a more prominent role for gas and nuclear power. But some of those provisions were already in the Clean Electricity Regulations that climate hawks are now fighting so hard to defend, inserted as a compromise in a futile attempt to mollify the industry and its political representatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan. But once again, gas will be a tougher sell when it’s more expensive and now so much more unpredictable than the clean alternatives. The new nuclear technologies are still speculative and deeply vulnerable to cost overruns. Increasingly, utilities, developers, and investors know it. Carney declared Thursday that “it doesn’t do us good to be sitting in court all the time with provinces. It doesn’t do us good to be talking past each other. What does do us good is to come together with specific projects.” There are no guarantees, but so much of the language and narrative-building in the electricity strategy suggests the lion’s share of those projects will be renewable. • The Party Has Already Started: The electricity strategy only rarely digs down to specific projects, but provinces representing three-quarters of Canada’s population are already embracing a faster transition. Hydro-Québec is working on a 10-year, $185-billion renewable energy and grid buildout by 2035. Ontario recently brought 10 provinces and territories together in a National Energy Corridor Agreement to boost interprovincial and -territorial transmission infrastructure. And the MOU implementation agreement commits Alberta to facilitate investment in renewable energy projects, a big step back from its continuing, punitive restrictions on renewables development. The electricity strategy envisions much of the financing and infrastructure that will be needed to pull those advances together into an integrated whole. • Delivering on Affordability: The MOU implementation plan has little or nothing to say about affordability (are you surprised?), but the electricity strategy does, with a top-line pledge to reduce home energy costs for seven out of 10 Canadian households by 2050, a total saving of $15 billion across the board. It’s just a start, but it puts affordability on the government’s narrative map. If they’re serious and deliberate about patching together a least-cost energy strategy, it’ll have little if any room for oil, gas, or nuclear—not with powerful evidence, for example, that electricity prices are higher when those prices are set by gas. • Smith Proves that Canada Works: By signing a deal that makes it harder to claim the federal government is blocking a new pipeline, Smith has helped prove Carney’s constant anti-separatist refrain that “Canada works”—incurring the rage, no doubt, of her own political base. Canada also needs to work for anyone who depends on a clean environment, healthy and thriving ecosystems, and safe, stable climate. But with Smith and her separatist constituents setting up as a fifth column for annexation by Donald Trump’s United States, let’s set aside any notion that 51st state status for Canada is a recipe for anything other than climate disaster (and so much else). Resisting and withstanding Trump (just 170 more sleeps until mid-term elections, which is a damn sight better than the 730 we started with) doesn’t mean a free pass for a pipeline, but we can still appreciate it that keeping Canada whole and sovereign is still Carney’s Job One. • The Words Not Spoken: Apart from a commitment to export a million barrels of “low-emission” Alberta bitumen per day (memo to Smith and Carney: You realize that that’s less than the industry is already exporting??), the MOU implementation plan says nothing about the international trade and economic sovereignty deals that Carney has been travelling the world to negotiate. It didn’t have to. Carney doesn’t need permission from Danielle Smith, her American enablers, or her separatist allies to continue building the alliances that will ratchet down our economic dependency on our unstable, unreliable neighbour to the south. But every connection he builds with countries outside North America helps align our economy and our future with a faster shift off fossil fuels. Little if any of this was on our bingo cards a year or two ago. But it’s the pathway that has opened up to us. And if it gives Canada any climate or energy gains at all in an era still dominated by Trump and his increasingly ridiculous tariffs, his loutish trade negotiations and his continuing annexation threats, we have to take the wins. Not least because they’ll be the point of departure for what we can achieve in 2027, 2029, and beyond, as Trump’s grip and this era begin to loosen and then fade. What is Carney Doing? If this line of thought is right—and it’s a possibility, not a prediction—it means that Carney’s actions and decisions are largely about buying time. Time for Trump’s power to wane. Time for Alberta’s separatist/conspiracist virus to spread, mutate, die out, or at least die back, with help from a vaccine of federal steadiness and calm (appropriate enough, for a movement populated largely by vaccine deniers) that no conspiracy theory can dismiss. And time for the government’s trade and investment agenda to deliver results—even knowing that some of those results will bring impacts that front-line communities will not and should not accept. In the immediate moment, none of this changes the way the wider climate community has to respond, from campaigners to investors to front-line practitioners. All of our voices are still essential. But those voices will be stronger and more confident if we have a clearer sense of the brutal game we’ve been pulled into, and a plausible path (or two it three) for playing it to the win we need. This conversation also underscores our biggest task for the remaining years of what was supposed to be the “decisive” decade for climate response: if we can shift the energy narrative in Canada, make it a mainstream view that the country’s preoccupation with oil and gas has us falling farther behind a changing world, we’ll see far better results in the 2030s and beyond. For many veteran climate advocates, taking on that part of the fight will begin with recognizing that most of our friends and family, neighbours and colleagues already understand that climate change is real and right in front of us: they’re looking away and staying silent because they don’t have what climate communicator Katharine Hayhoe calls “efficacy”. As Hayhoe recently pointed out in a feature interview with The Energy Mix, it amounts to science denial to keep hammering away at the dire news about global warming without also helping audiences understand what they can do about it, with multiple studies telling us why that won’t work. Far better to open those conversations with the dominant crises like energy security, food security, emergency preparedness and business continuity, affordability, and financial security that have knocked climate change far lower on the list of public priorities, and will likely keep it there. We Knew This Would Happen Climate hawks have always known this day would come. For decades, we warned that everyone had to pay attention to climate change right now, because it would be much tougher to respond once the crisis itself started affecting our daily lives. We were right, and here we are. But now, thanks to decades of hard work, communities and countries have an alternative to doubling down on fossil fuels. “In 10 years everyone will have ‘always known’ that solar and batteries were going to win,” Morgan Solar Executive Chair Mike Andrade writes on LinkedIn. With the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz roiling energy priorities around the world, Canada and the United States are among the shrinking number of countries that are still very keen on fossil fuel development. Understanding that gap is a first, essential step in spotting the opportunities ahead, and averting the deep economic as well as environmental and social risk we face if we don’t seize them. Thanks for reading The Energy Mix Weekender! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe Mitchell Beer traces his background in renewable energy and energy efficiency back to 1977, in climate change to 1997. Now he and the rest of the Energy Mix team scan 1,200 news headlines a week to pull together The Energy Mix and The Energy Mix Weekender. Chart of the Week BYD Eyes 20 Dealership Locations After Canada Greenlights Chinese EV Imports ‘Sledgehammer’ Carbon Price Deal Boosts Emissions by 230Mt, Aims for Fall 2027 Pipeline Approval ‘Worse Than Harper’: Regulatory Rollback Would Stop Canada from Assessing Project Impacts, Critics Warn Electricity Strategy Aims for Doubling by 2050, Allows ‘Flexibility’ for Gas Power Plants Opposition Mounts as O’Leary’s Data Centre Approved in Drought-Stricken Utah Diluted Carbon Price Misses ‘Reality of the World We’re In’, Could Impede Diversified Trade: Climate Institute $200B in Clean Energy Investment Will Need On-Time Delivery, Reliable Policies, Trade Association Says ‘Sovereign Pipeline’: CEO Pitches to Keep Trans Mountain in Government Hands What a Supercharged El Niño Could Mean for Canada Canada’s future is electric, and here’s how a power grid superhighway would get us there (Toronto Star) The Perilous Waters of Hecate Strait (Globe and Mail) Saudi Aramco profits jump despite conflict in Middle East (The Guardian) Farmers confront rising cost of fertilizer and fuel as spring seeding under way (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) Clarkson forecasts 24% decline in offshore oil, gas capital expenditures (Oil & Gas Journal) Pipe Dreams: How Oil and Gas Fail to Deliver Economic Development in Africa (Oil Change International) Developing countries must hold the pen to script the fossil fuel transition (Climate Home News) Iran war threatens the dream of a post-oil economy in the Gulf (Washington Post) U.S. Oil, Gas Work Force Hits Lowest Level Since 2022 (Rigzone) Why Polestar Is Doubling Down on Net Zero as Rivals Pull Back on EVs (Bloomberg) Why this Michigan utility plans to sell its hydro dams for $13 (E&E News/Politico) Levees can no longer save New Orleans (Vox)