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Brewing Better Health Episode 6: When movement is the prescription
Daryl Lawson, PT, MPT, D.Sc., joins Brewing Better Health to discuss physical therapy, access to care and Nevada’s future health care workforce
Platner wins Maine primary to challenge Collins
Voters also headed to the polls in primary elections in Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina ahead of the midterms.
Live Results: Nevada midterm primaries
Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo will face six Republican challengers in a state primary on Tuesday, while six Democrats will compete for the nomination to reclaim the seat in November.
GOP primary for U.S. House seat and Democratic governors race among Nevada's key contests
Nevadans are choosing their party nominees Tuesday for two closely watched congressional seats and the governor’s race, among others, as the state grapples with an affordable housing shortage, exploding energy demand from data centers and federal cuts to key state programs.
What to watch in Tuesday's primaries as Platner seeks Senate nomination in Maine
Voters across Maine, Nevada, South Carolina and North Dakota head to the polls Tuesday for another day of primary elections in America, but much of the political world will be focused on Maine's high-stakes U.S. Senate contest.
The Latest: Maine primary election tests Platner’s support following mounting scandals
Voters across Maine, Nevada, South Carolina and North Dakota head to the polls for another day of primary elections in America, but much of the political world will be focused on Maine’s high-stakes U.S. Senate contest
What to watch in Tuesday's primaries as Graham Platner tries to clinch Senate nomination in Maine
Voters across Maine, Nevada, South Carolina and North Dakota head to the polls for another day of primary elections in America
What to watch in Tuesday's primaries as Graham Platner tries to clinch Senate nomination in Maine
Voters across Maine, Nevada, South Carolina and North Dakota head to the polls for another day of primary elections in America.
Nevada governor’s race will reflect national political environment
Nevada is among a handful of states with a gubernatorial race worth watching after Tuesday’s Primary Election.
What’s Next For Belal?
UFC Vegas 118 went down this past weekend (Sat., June 6, 2026) inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, leaving several fighters feeling the post-fight blues. Among them was Santiago Luna, who was choked out by Bryce Mitchell in the third and final round (see it again here). And Junior Tafa, who was knocked out […]
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Nevada’s state primary
Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo will face six Republican challengers in a state primary on Tuesday, while state Attorney General Aaron Ford, Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill and four others will compete for the Democratic nomination to reclaim the seat in November
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Nevada’s state primary
Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo will face six Republican challengers in a state primary on Tuesday, while state Attorney General Aaron Ford, Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill and four others will compete for the Democratic nomination to reclaim the seat in November.
Allen’s Gamble Pays Off In Bloody Victory
Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan squared off in a Middleweight bout earlier tonight (Sat., June 6, 2026) at UFC Vegas 118 inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In a fun and bloody fight, Allen extended his win streak to three. Allen came out aggressive, pressing forward and kicking at the lead leg. He didn’t […]
LIVE! Watch UFC Vegas 118 Post-Fight Presser Here
Now that the action is in the books from UFC Vegas 118 earlier tonight (Sat., June 6, 2026) LIVE on Paramount+ from inside UFC’s Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, fight fans can check out the post-fight presser for all the best reaction and official bonus winners. On a night that featured a main event […]
Nevada proposes pausing licensing for new hospice and home-health providers while it probes possible fraud
Nevada is proposing a months-long moratorium on new licenses for hospice and home-health providers as well as a pause of new enrollments into the state’s Medicaid program while the authoritie...
Citing fraud worries, Nevada pauses hospice and home health licensing, Medicaid enrollment
Nevada is putting a pause on licensing for hospice and home-health providers and new Nevada Medicaid enrollments, citing worries about fraud.
Fireworks, entertainment, giveaways to mark Station Casinos’ 50th anniversary
Station Casinos Inc., the corporate entity that owns and operates 20 entertainment destinations throughout Southern Nevada, will celebrate its 50th anniversary
Fire Science Academy prepares high school students for firefighting careers
University of Nevada, Reno Extension’s Living With Fire collaborates U.S. Bureau of Land Management and other agencies to train nextgen firefighters.
Who is Tilman Fertitta, the billionaire acquiring Caesars Entertainment?
The Fertitta name is ubiquitous in Southern Nevada considering the ownership role the Fertitta family has with Station Casinos and UFC. Frank and Lorenzo Fertit
What will the deal to acquire Caesars Entertainment mean for Las Vegas? Gaming expert weighs in
Abel Garcia talks to Nevada Independent senior reporter Howard Stutz about the far-reaching impacts of Fertitta Entertainment's deal to acquire Caesars Entertainment.
Gold Country Kiwanis and Nevada County OES to host safety carnival
Families are invited to enjoy our 21st Annual Health/Safety & Fire Preparedness Carnival on Saturday, June 6, from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. at 950 Maidu Ave, the Rood Center
Caesars to be acquired by Fertitta Entertainment in a $17.6B transaction
The Houston-based company controlled by Tilman Fertitta will take Caesars private and will acquire more than 50 properties, including 15 hotel-casinos in Nevada.
How the latest congressional effort to 'save' college sports could impact Nevada and MW
Congress' latest effort to "save" college sports was unveiled Wednesday whenSenators Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) announced plans for a bipa
Renown Health partners to launch first OB/GYN residency in Northern Nevada
The program will train future physicians locally and help address a critical shortage of OB/GYN providers across the state.
Nevadans have some of the highest grocery bills in the country
According to a study, Nevadans spend almost $10,000 on groceries each year.
Silver & Black Gala unites stars, alumni and community to support Nevada mental health initiatives
The Raiders played host to the third annual Silver & Black Gala on Sunday night at Allegiant Stadium, a power-packed event that raised $2.5 million to help benefit mental health initiatives across Nevada.
States sue over new student loan limits on certain nursing and healthcare degrees
New York, Arizona, North Carolina, Kentucky and Nevada are among the states challenging a rule that limits federal student loans for graduate degrees in nursing, physical therapy and more.
Saturday's UNR College of Business graduation ceremony
The University of Nevada's College of Business held graduation ceremonies on the quad on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Check out the photos here.
Caesars Entertainment and Las Vegas nonprofit launch new food donation program
A major Strip casino operator is partnering with a local nonprofit to combat food insecurity in Southern Nevada. Caesars Entertainment has launched a new partne
Sales of luxury homes in Las Vegas jump in 2025, report says
“Southern Nevada’s luxury market saw healthy growth in 2025,” states a new report from Nevada State Bank. “This increase followed four years of relatively flat activity afte...
Grand jury indicts 2 petition circulators in 2024 signature-forgery case
A statewide grand jury has indicted two petition circulators on allegations that they forged signatures while gathering support for a proposed constitutional amendment on the 2024 ballot. According to Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser, the circulators — Cherell Long of Nevada and Martin Arellano of Texas — were working for a Colorado Springs–based canvassing firm […]
Nevada District to Buy Science Textbooks; New Jersey District Looks for Instructional Management System
A Nevada district is looking for science textbooks, while a New Jersey school system seeks an instructional management system.
Nevada health officials monitoring possible hantavirus cases
Health officials with the state of Nevada say they are monitoring possible Hantavirus cases linked to an outbreak aboard a cruise ship.
Boys Town Nevada lights Las Vegas sign green for Mental Health Action Day
The “Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas” sign lit up green as Boys Town Nevada marked Mental Health Action Day and urged people who are struggling to seek help.Over
Amid elevated disaster risks Tahoe cannot afford tourism business-driven governance
Local and state governments in 2026 are under more pressure than ever to provide services. These new realities and an uncertain summer came into sharp relief recently in Nevada. During the state’s joint interim standing Government Affairs meeting, lawmakers received an alarming update from Nevada’s head of Emergency Management and Homeland Security about strained disaster […]
Nick Coté, pursuing “frugal science” like paper centrifuges and origami microscopes
National Merit Scholar Nick Coté chose Nevada to pursue biomedical engineering and mathematics — and a mission to make science more accessible through paper centrifuges, origami microscopes and creative problem-solving.
Politics Now: May 9, 2026
This week on Politics Now with host John Langeler: Kamala Harris campaigns in Las Vegas How is Southern Nevada doing on creating affordable housing? Nevada tries to save Colorado River water, and a…
Dignity Health Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital Achieves 6th Consecutive Hospital ‘A’ Safety Grade in Patient Safety
GRASS VALLEY, Calif. MAY 9, 2026 – Dignity Health Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital (SNMH), a member of CommonSpirit, earned an “A” Hospital Safety Grade for the sixth consecutive grading round by The Leapfrog Group, an independent national nonprofit watchdog focused on patient safety. This recent award continues the Hospital’s “Straight A” designation, defined as hospitals […]
Science, music, and stream bugs: Sierra Streams celebrates 30 years at Pioneer Park
Sierra Streams Institute will celebrate its 30th anniversary with a free community event on Saturday, May 16 from 1 to 5 p.m. at Pioneer Park in Nevada City, bringing together
Nevada City Chamber of Commerce 2026 Business & Community Awards, “Long Table” dinner celebration on May 16
Nevada City, CA — The Nevada City Chamber of Commerce proudly announces the recipients of its 2026 Business & Community Awards, honoring exceptional contributions to the local economy, culture, and civic life. This awards ceremony has been held for 124 years and celebrates the individuals, organizations, and businesses whose creativity, dedication, and leadership strengthen Nevada […]
Horsford Takes "Congressman on the Job" to the Kitchen, Spotlighting Small Business Crisis
NORTH LAS VEGAS- Congressman Steven Horsford (NV-04) continued his “Congressman on the Job” series, a district-wide initiative where he steps directly into Nevada workplaces to experience firsthand the challenges facing workers, small businesses, and families across the Fourth District.
Nevada has more credit card delinquencies than anywhere in US, report says
A new report finds the state ranks first overall in the country for credit card delinquencies, and third overall for overall debt burden.
Golden Entertainment casino exec says ‘family-owned’ business will better serve customers
Returning Golden Entertainment to its roots as a privately-operated entity was the best way to serve its customers, many of whom reside in Southern Nevada, said Executive Vice President and COO Bla...
Review-Journal’s Aging Wellness Expo returns to South Point
Nevada’s largest interactive gathering for active adults age 50 and older runs from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Saturday. Admission and parking are free.
DOJ targets tech-driven health fraud on West Coast
A new team, including the DEA and FBI, is meant to combine and align resources to detect and dismantle healthcare and controlled substance schemes in Arizona, Nevada and California.
New Tool Maps Native Serving Healthcare
Healthcare systems serving Native American patients can now be searched in a single database developed by Indigenous Healthcare Advancements, a Nevada-based tribal healthcare management service. IHA a...
Golden Entertainment casino exec says ‘family-owned’ business will better serve customers
Returning Golden Entertainment to its roots as a privately-operated entity was the best way to serve its customers, many of whom reside in Southern Nevada, said Executive Vice President and COO Bla...
Big business strikes back against new hope for corporate spending ban in Nevada elections
Plus: Huge ad spending in the AG's race, a look at self-funded campaigns and the number of votes cast so far.
Mesquite Entertainment hiring for 100+ new positions
Nevada's unemployment rate currently sits at 5.3%, up from the U.S. unemployment rate of 4.3%.So if you're looking for a job, we have a place hiring more than 1
The VICI-Golden Entertainment deal reinforces the dominant casino sale-leaseback trend
VICI Properties completes $1.6B Golden Entertainment sale-leaseback, adding 7 Nevada casinos.
Politics Now: May 2, 2026
This week on Politics Now with host John Langeler: Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen reacts to being at the White House Correspondents Dinner assassination attempt. SNAP food benefits restrictions kick in…
Las Vegas Review-Journal Launches VegasBusiness, a New Multiplatform Business Brand Serving Southern Nevada Leaders
/PRNewswire/ --The Las Vegas Review Journal today announced the launch of VegasBusiness, a new multiplatform brand designed to deliver authoritative reporting,...
Surge in new business formations in Nevada
Nevada led the nation in post-pandemic small business growth, according to new analysis from UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research. Business filings surged in 2020, when Las Vegas ...
Intestinal infection linked to animal yoga, health officials warn
Nevada health officials are investigating reported cases of an intestinal infection they say has been linked to animal yoga.
Intestinal infection linked to animal yoga, health officials warn
Nevada health officials are investigating reported cases of an intestinal infection they say has been linked to animal yoga.
Intestinal infection linked to animal yoga, health officials warn
Nevada health officials are investigating reported cases of an intestinal infection they say has been linked to animal yoga.
Intestinal infection linked to animal yoga, health officials warn
Nevada health officials are investigating reported cases of an intestinal infection they say has been linked to animal yoga.
Intestinal infection linked to animal yoga, health officials warn
Nevada health officials are investigating reported cases of an intestinal infection they say has been linked to animal yoga.
Intestinal infection linked to animal yoga, health officials warn
Nevada health officials are investigating reported cases of an intestinal infection they say has been linked to animal yoga.
LIVE! Watch ‘Benavidez vs. Zurdo’ Prelims For Free
Before David Benavidez challenges WBO and WBA Cruiserweight champion, Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez, for his WBA title later TONIGHT (Sat., May 2, 2026) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on DAZN PPV, you can check out some of the early “prelims” for free on YouTube. “The Mexican Monster” and “Zurdo” will also be competing for […]
Which questions do peatland scientists want to answer most?
Peatlands are poorly understood worldwide, but have important implications for the climate. Nevada scientists compiled the 50 most urgent questions about them.
Adelson, Davis inducted into Nevada Business Hall of Fame
Dr. Miriam Adelson and Mark Davis are the forefront of keeping Las Vegas a world-leading tourist destination.
Video: ‘Mexican Monster’ Stares Down Zurdo In ‘Sin City’
David Benavidez (31-0) will make his much-anticipated return to the ring this Saturday (May 2, 2026) to face off against one of the biggest challenges of his career when he goes toe-to-toe against WBA (Super) and WBO Cruiserweight champion, Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez (48-1), inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. For Benavidez, it’s his chance […]
Horsford Works Alongside North Las Vegas Small Business Owner Impacted by Republican Healthcare Cuts
NORTH LAS VEGAS – Congressman Steven Horsford (NV-04) continued his “Congressman on the Job” series, a district-wide initiative where he steps directly into Nevada workplaces to experience firsthand the challenges facing workers, small businesses, and families across the Fourth District.
Intermountain Health Unveils New Nevada Community Health Needs Assessment and Implementation Strategy to Enhance Health of Residents
Intermountain Health has published its new Community Health Needs Assessment (CHNA) and the Community Health Implementation Strategies (CHIS)for Nevada, identifying where the greatest healthcare needs for the communities and the actions that must be taken to enhance community health.The new assessment report found the most significant health nee...
The LINQ Promenade Celebrates Cinco De Mayo With Food, Drink and Entertainment Specials, May 1 - 5
LAS VEGAS – The LINQ Promenade is celebrating Cinco de Mayo with a weekend-long lineup of food and beverage specials, comedy programming and entertainment options across its open-air destination from Friday, May 1 through Tuesday,
Nevada named among 10 best states to start a business. What it means
WalletHub, a website focused on personal finance topics, ranked the best states to start a business. Nevada placed in the top 10.
Matches To Make After UFC Vegas 116
UFC Vegas 116 went own last night (Sat., April 25, 2026) inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, which saw Aljamain Sterling defeat Youssef Zalal via unanimous decision. In the co-main event of the evening, Joselyn Edwards defeated Norma Dumont, also via unanimous decision, while Ryan Spann kicked off the main card with a stellar […]
RJ to launch VegasBusiness, authoritative source of local business news
The Review-Journal on May 3 will launch VegasBusiness, a multiplatform brand that delivers analysis and insight to the business leaders of Southern Nevada.
Sooo ... About Last Night
Last night (Sat., April 25, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returned home to Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 116. In the main event, former Bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling looked to take a step closer to Featherweight gold by turning away red-hot rising star Youssef Zalal. The co-main event was another potential […]
#IMOMSOHARD
In this segment of 2 Plus You Nevada, host Sarah Johns highlights the all-new #IMOMSOHARD: Flashback Tour, coming to Reno for one night only!
Nevada regulators approve Golden Entertainment going private
The Nevada Gaming Commission Thursday signed off on Golden Entertainment taking the company private. The Las Vegas-based casino operator whose flagship property is The Strat on the Strip, has de...
VICI to close $1.2bn Golden Entertainment deal around 30 April
Vici Properties has announced that the acquisition of seven Nevada casino properties from Golden Entertainment Inc is due to close on or around 30 April.
Small Business Grant recipients announced
ELKINS – Woodlands Development & Lending is proud to announce recipients of its Spring Forward Small Business Grant Opportunity. Officials received more than 80 proposals for this quick-turnaround, $500 grant and were able to make 22 awards to small businesses located throughout the Mon Forest Region of West Virginia. Local food establishments, recreation outfitters, small […]
Sigal Chattah addresses criticism, politics after one year leading Las Vegas federal prosecutors
April marks one year that Sigal Chattah has headed the U.S. Attorney’s office for the District of Nevada. Her appointment by the Trump administration as First Assistant U.S. Attorney has been…
UNR opens three museums for Spring into Science, with fossils, robots and solar viewing
KRXI2 NBC Reno covers news, sports, weather and traffic for the Reno, Nevada area including Sparks, Carson City, Virginia City, Silver City, Stagecoach, Silver Springs, Sun Valley, Cold Springs, Spanish Springs and Fenley, Nevada and Truckee and Tahoe City, California.
Kalshi suspends 3 political candidates for betting on own races
Kalshi has suspended three political candidates for betting on their own races, the prediction market platform announced Wednesday. Minnesota congressional candidate and state Sen. Matt Klein (D) a…
Benavidez vs. Ramirez Start Time, Full Fight Card
Event: David Benavidez vs. Zurdo RamirezDate: Sat., May 2, 2026Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NevadaStart Time: DAZN PPV main card start time at 8 p.m. ET Benavidez vs. Ramirez Main Event on DAZN PPV: 200 lbs.: David Benavidez (31-0) vs. Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez (48-1) for WBA and WBO Cruiserweight titles Benavidez vs. Ramirez Main […]
Dave Mason, co-founder of Traffic known for 'We Just Disagree' and 'Feelin’ Alright,' dies at 79
Dave Mason, co-founder of the psychedelic British band Traffic and songwriter behind “Feelin’ Alright” and “Hole in My Shoe,” died Sunday at his home in Gardnerville, Nevada | KMBZ
WrestleMania 42 Night 2 results, full list of winners
WWE WrestleMania 42 is in the books, after an action-packed weekend at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. On Sunday night, Night 2 took place with four championships on the line. In the main event, Roman Reigns pinned CM Punk…
College of Business team places third nationally in AMA Collegiate Case Competition
University of Nevada, Reno College of Business students placed third nationally in the AMA Collegiate Case Competition after presenting a Major League Baseball marketing strategy.
April Las Vegas headliners. David Byrne, Cyndi Lauper, Phish included
Las Vegas is known for its entertainment and people traveling into the Southern Nevada city may be wondering what shows are coming up. Here's the list.
LVRJ Business 7@7 | Here’s how much you need to make to be considered ‘rich’ in Nevada
Here’s how much you need to make to be considered ‘rich’ in Nevada
Reno Pro Soccer's $350M entertainment district 'The Boulevard Reno' includes hotel/casino
The group behind Reno Pro Soccer's attempt to build a first-of-its-kind soccer stadium in Northern Nevada has submitted a pre-planning application for its ambit
Reno Pro Soccer's $350M entertainment district 'The Boulevard Reno' includes hotel/casino
The group behind Reno Pro Soccer's attempt to build a first-of-its-kind soccer stadium in Northern Nevada has submitted a pre-planning application for its ambit
Reno Pro Soccer's $350M entertainment district 'The Boulevard Reno' includes hotel/casino
The group behind Reno Pro Soccer's attempt to build a first-of-its-kind soccer stadium in Northern Nevada has submitted a pre-planning application for its ambit
Nevada State University joins NAIA for athletics, adds more sports
Nevada State University has a new home for its burgeoning athletics department.
Nevada investigators: Man defrauded Las Vegas sports betting investors
Investigators in Nevada allege a man defrauded investors out of tens of thousands of dollars as part of a Las Vegas sports betting scheme, the 8 News Now Investigators have learned.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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