SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " Jacob " 558 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Liverpool reject chance to sign Real Madrid star Vinicius Junior
Real Madrid forward Vinicius Junior has been offered to Liverpool, according to journalist Ben Jacobs.Vinicius could leave Madrid this summer as he is in the final months of his contract and the Spani...
Jacoby Brissett Practices With Arizona Cardinals Despite Contract Uncertainty
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett participated in Thursday's workout after a quiet offseason due to contract uncertainty.
FNB names retail manager, small business lender
FNB Oxford Bank announced the appointment of Austin Vardaman as Oxford Regional Retail Manager and Jacob Marker as Consumer and Small Business Lender. Austin Vardaman graduated from the University of […]
Teresa Jacobs to depart Orange County politics after decades of service
Jacobs, 69, was first elected to the Orange County Board of County Commissioners in 2000 and has served as county mayor and school board chair in the decades since.
Miss Manners: Is there a place for civility when it’s not demonstrated by our politicians?
Advice from Judith Martin, Nicholas Ivor Martin and Jacobina Martin.
A mathematician used Fable 5 to disprove a major math problem
The Jacobian conjecture has bedeviled math experts for nearly 90 years.
A political ally of the sheriff schedules evictions in Prince George’s
Elsie Jacobs, 85, is not an employee of the office but helps organize and schedule evictions — one of the Prince George’s County sheriff’s responsibilities.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
A Mathematician Used Claude Fable to Disprove the 87-Year-Old Jacobian Conjecture in a Few Hours
Levent Alpöge, a number theorist at Anthropic, announced on X that he had found a counterexample to one of algebraic geometry's most notorious problems, crediting Fable as his collaborator.
Accused Puna Killer Faces Mental Health Evaluation. Here’s What That Means
Jacob Baker’s case has been suspended while examiners determine whether he is fit to stand trial for the murders of three people on the Big Island that sparked a manhunt. The process has proven to be controversial.
The Politics of Kurdish-Palestinian Solidarity
The Kurdish and Palestinian movements were forged in a common anti-colonial tradition. Their different political trajectories now reveal two competing models of liberation in the 21st century.
Jacob Gonzalez Making Strong First Impression With the Pirates
Jacob Gonzalez's first hit with the Pittsburgh Pirates was a go-ahead two-run home run.
EAST TEXAS POLITICS: Smith County sheriff, DA and county judge sound off on upcoming budget
Smith County Sheriff Larry Smith, District Attorney Jacob Putman and County Judge Neal Franklin join Blake Holland to discuss the upcoming budget.
Miss Manners: How do I tactfully avoid giving someone a political endorsement?
Advice from Judith Martin, Nicholas Ivor Martin and Jacobina Martin.
Union City High School offers all-sports pass for 2026-2027 school year
The Union City High School Principal and Athletic Director, Jacob Cross, is offering a special deal for Golden Tornado fans this year.
Troy Jackson’s Politics Are Rooted in Maine Logger Struggles
Maine Senate hopeful Troy Jackson’s history is a case study of something the Left often discusses but rarely sees: a working-class politician who emerged from workplace organizing struggles and used his power to advance pro-worker policies.
When will Jacob Misiorowski pitch nest for the Milwaukee Brewers?
Jacob Misiorowski won't appear in the All-Star Game or the first series after the break for the Brewers, but there isn't cause for alarm.
Heat can be deadly, but sunshine itself? Science says we could use more of it
Extreme exposure should be avoided, but we’ve gone too far the other way – enjoyed safely, the sun can have enormous health benefits, says author and MIT journalism fellow Rowan Jacobsen
Mark Madden: Fans keep paying for sports’ biggest bait-and-switch
“The customer is always right.” That’s a business model to adhere to. But sports have chosen one provided by circus impresario P.T. Barnum: “There’s a sucker born every minute.” Sunday’s game between the Pirates and Milwaukee was supposed to be a classic pitching matchup: Paul Skenes vs. Jacob Misiorowski. Misiorowski
CBS Sports Says All 13 Dolphins Rookies Are Under Pressure and the Rebuild Depends on It
CBS Sports’ Josh Edwards ranked the NFL's top 10 rookies facing the most pressure to succeed immediately. “Miami's depth chart leaves a lot to be desired following its offseason moves,” Edwards wrote. “One would assume first-round picks Kadyn Proctor and Chris Johnson will start immediately, but Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech wide receiver Caleb Douglas and Ohio State tight end Will Kacmarek should factor in the equation.”
Rangers Announce Jacob deGrom Injury Update After Rough Outing
The Rangers provided a new injury update on Jacob deGrom after the two-time Cy Young Award winner exited following a rough outing. The post Rangers Announce Jacob deGrom Injury Update After Rough Outing appeared first on HEAVY.
Opinion: Jacobs Entertainment's application for a massive sign along I-80 should be denied.
The proposed Reno's Neon Line District sign is argued to be an advertising display, not an area identification sign. Public comments can be submitted until July 24.
A career worth the call: After 52 years in four sports, umpire Rene Arsenault hangs up his gear
When Rene Arsenault began his career behind the dish as an umpire, things certainly looked different across the landscape in the country. It was 1974 in Fitchburg. He was a plucky high school graduate. The average home cost about $21,000. Gas prices hovered around 30 cents a gallon and a loaf of bread listed for […]
Jacob Tobey Out as Spurs Announcer After Affair Allegation
Jacob Tobey will not return as Spurs’ the play-by-play announcer following a viral social media post accusing him of having an affair.
Jacobs Entertainment seeks approval for walkways, new signage in Neon Line District
Jacob Misiorowski's All-Star Game dream might come down to weather
Jacob Misiorowski has become must-see TV. Now weather and timing could determine whether fans see the Brewers ace on All-Star night.
Wang Yi Says China Welcomes Stronger European Business Relations
China welcomes deeper cooperation with Swedish and European businesses, which will benefit all parties involved, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with Investor AB Chairman Jacob Wallenberg in Stockholm on July 4, according to a statement from the ministry on Sunday.
How Buc-ee's mania is affecting a nearby Goodyear business
Ass Kickin’ products was founded in downtown Glendale in 1986 by the owner, Jeff Jacobs, manufacturing a few barbeque and hot sauces. He met his wife, Linda, who took on the business with him.
NFL QB rankings: Arizona Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett near bottom
Even with career numbers last season, Jacoby Brissett is one of the lowest-ranked QBs in the league, per PFF.
IDP Rookie Profile: Jacob Rodriguez in Redraft Leagues
Jacob Rodriguez enters a crowded Dolphins linebacker room, limiting his redraft value despite an impressive college résumé.
Jacobs Entertainment moves ahead with sign along I-80, seeks approval for two skywalks
Jacobs Entertainment plans to build a neon sign and skyways in Reno's Neon Line District, aiming to enhance pedestrian safety and attract visitors.
Brewers Continue Testing Jacob Misiorowski's Limits
After touching triple digits with a record-shattering 105.5 mph heater, the Milwaukee Brewers flamethrowing ace escaped a bases-loaded jam to prove his elite resilience and Cy Young caliber endurance.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Athletics' Jacob Wilson: Out of Athletics' lineup
Athletics' Jacob Wilson: Out of Athletics' lineup
Jacob Elordi, Teyana Taylor invited to join Oscars voters
Jacob Elordi, Julia Garner, Simu Liu, Jenna Ortega and Teyana Taylor are among the boldface names invited to join the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Film academy invites 529 new members, including Jenna Ortega, the Safdie brothers and Jacob Elordi
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences on Wednesday invited 529 members to the Oscar voting body, a new class that brings the group’s membership to nearly double what it was a decade ago.
We’ve Been Wrong About Sunlight for Decades—Here’s What the Science Says
We've been demonizing sunlight for years. A new book by Rowan Jacobsen digs into the science—and says we've got it all wrong.
TIME Launches The CEO Moment with Sam Jacobs, Expanding Its Coverage of Business Leadership with a New Video Interview Series
TIME launched The CEO Moment with Sam Jacobs, a new monthly video interview series hosted by TIME's Editor in Chief that expands TIME's coverage of business leadership through in-depth conversations with the executives shaping today's business landscape.
Sporticast: Why Netflix, EA Have Their Own World Cup Games
On the 563rd Sporticast episode, hosts Jacob Feldman and Justin Birnbaum discuss some of the biggest sports business stories of the week, including a detailed breakdown of Netflix’s FIFA World Cup video game. Following Electronic Arts and FIFA’s split in 2022, both parties now have World Cup-related offerings on the market. Electronic Arts recently launched …
The Jacob Engels attacks don't worry me. This does
I never thought he warranted the attention.
Made in Tarrant: Mansfield business executive launches mocktail company
Jacobia Solomon is selling her SipSide Mocktails online or through business partnerships that include hotels and restaurants.
Talk Business & Politics: AR Sec. of Education Jacob Oliva, Rep. Aaron Pilkington
The results are in concerning Arkansas student progress in the Atlas testing program.
Where to watch Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Friday, June 19
Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers start a three-game series against the Braves.
Blueprint Capital Advisors CEO Jacob Walthour Featured on The New Jersey Business Media Podcast Discusses Access, Capital, and Opportunity for Entrepreneurs
/PRNewswire/ -- Jacob Walthour, founder and CEO of Blueprint Capital Advisors and creator of the Power 100 initiative, appears as a featured guest on The New...
Colombia’s Right-Wing Offensive and the Politics of Order
Far-right millionaire Abelardo de la Espriella has a narrow lead ahead of Colombia’s election runoff. Left-wing rival Iván Cepeda speaks of the outgoing government’s achievements, but rising violence has made the campaign especially volatile.
Former Steelers linebacker returns to Pittsburgh after UFL breakout
The Pittsburgh Steelers are signing LB Jacoby Windmon after his successful season with the UFL.
Shohei Ohtani allows season-high 4 earned runs and falls behind Jacob Misiorowski in ERA race, but Dodgers finish sweep of Rays
30 Day Challenge: My favorite Bears team of all time
In our latest 30 Day Challenge article, @jacobinfante24 shares the story behind his favorite Bears team ever.
Report links anti-Christian extremism and 'assassination culture' to alleged plot against Erika Kirk
A new report links anti-Christian extremism and assassination culture to the alleged bomb threat against Erika Kirk at a Turning Point USA event.
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx Celebrates Blood Donations to Save Over 200 Lives
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi hosted a blood drive with the New York Blood Center (NYBC) where over 80 donations were made that can save up to 243 lives.
The Batture sparks legal fight between childhood friends who became business partners
The longtime friends and business partners are splitting up over a disagreement about how Jacobson is running the Batture, a 10-acre park on the Uptown riverfront.
The Batture sparks legal fight between childhood friends that became business partners
The longtime friends and business partners are splitting up over a disagreement about how Jacobson is running the Batture, a 10-acre park on the Uptown riverfront.
Brewers giving Jacob Misiorowski an extra day off between starts after first complete game
Amputated, one-eyed and unstoppable: how a lion stunned scientists with new hunting tricks - Futura-Sciences
A Lion’s Journey of Survival For years in Queen Elizabeth National Park, western Uganda, a gravely mutilated lion has managed to defy every prediction. Living with only three legs and a single eye, left almost entirely to his own devices, Jacob the lion somehow found a way to stay alive....
105 mph?! Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski posts another velocity record while striking out 15 in first career shutout
Jacob Misiorowski threw the four fastest pitches ever recorded by a starter in a single inning. It wound up being one of the best starts MLB has ever seen.
104.5!? Jacob Misiorowski sets velocity record in unbelievable first inning
Jacob Misiorowski delivered arguably the most ridiculous inning by a starting pitcher ever in the first inning against Philadelphia
NC State football up to 15 commitments for 2027
NC State’s 2027 recruiting cycle is going well by Dave Doeren standards—call it Gunnermentum. Gunnercitement! Gunner … hell, I don’t know. NC State has 15 verbal commitments with the addition of offensive lineman Jacob Burns, a high-three-star prospect from Georgia. Burns is the fourth player to commit to NC State since Sunday, joining safety Alex […]
NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi | North Central Bronx Dental Department Launches Evening Appointments
Bronx, NY – NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi/North Central Bronx (NCB) today announced its Dental Department will begin offering evening appointments,
Michigan Blue Cross to limit mental health benefit. Will thousands lose care?
Beginning March 1, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan will no longer pay for counseling services provided in a private office by limited license providers.
Paul Jacob
Paul Jacob, AIA, LEED AP, NCARB, has transferred from HOK’s Kansas City office to serve as Managing Principal of the firm’s Chicago studio.
Experts on uptick in political assassinations and polarization in recent years
Immediately after the shootings of two state lawmakers, some called it part of the rise in political violence they have been observing for some time across the country. Minnesota Now host Nina Moini spoke again with two of those experts a year after the attacks.
JD Vance’s chief of staff Jacob Reses to leave Trump administration
Jacob Reses, who has been with Vance since his successful 2022 Senate campaign in Ohio, is expected to remain close to the vice president’s team.
New Data Center, Student Collaboration Space Put People at the Heart of Computer Science
The Computer Science and Engineering Department unveiled a new on-site data center that will accelerate computing and artificial intelligence research advances, while giving graduate students and other computer science researchers hands-on access to cutting-edge computing infrastructure.
Arizona Cardinals' made big offseason mistake to cause current problems
The Arizona Cardinals' situation with Jacoby Brissett was their own fault for a premature QB decision in the spring.
Conference tackles challenges of health care workforce
Strengthening North Dakota’s health care workforce is the goal of multiple programs at UND, speakers say at Dakota Conference on Rural Health
Jacoby Brissett reports for minicamp but still wants new contract
Brissett's arrival for mandatory minicamp doesn't mean the contract issues are over.
Josh Sweat, Jacoby Brissett in attendance for Cardinals' mandatory minicamp
Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett reportedly set to report to mandatory minicamp this week after contract holdout
Rangers' Jacob deGrom: Blanks Guardians across six innings
Rangers' Jacob deGrom: Blanks Guardians across six innings
Brewers' Pat Murphy Discusses Viral Jacob Misiorowski Interaction
When Milwaukee Brewers’ fire-balling prospect refused to hand over the ball, a veteran manager’s strict rules vanished. Discover how a defiant stare-down forged unbreakable trust at Coors Field.
Jacob Misiorowski hits Tyler Freeman in helmet with pitch
Brewers fireballer Jacob Misiorowski hit the Rockies' Tyler Freeman in the helmet with a pitch.
Jacobs Entertainment and Reno Apex Soccer hosting their first downtown youth soccer tournament
The tournament is happening on the newly completed fields in Reno's Neon Line District.
Game Discussion: Milwaukee Brewers (38-23) @ Colorado Rockies (24-40)
Can Jacob Misiorowski master the high elevation of Colorado?
Jacobs Entertainment hosts first soccer tournament on new Neon Line District fields
Reno’s first downtown soccer tournament kicked off at 9 a.m. Saturday, June 6, on newly completed fields in the Neon Line District, marking a major step in a br
Jacobs Entertainment and Reno Apex Soccer Club host first downtown soccer tournament
Jacobs Entertainment and Reno Apex Soccer Club are celebrating their first downtown soccer tournament Saturday.
Digging out: One man’s recovery and the business it inspired
Craig Stevens was just a kid when he started to build worlds. While growing up in West Brookfield, he’d take the blocks he was always given for Christmas and construct cities in his backyard. He used the garden hose to make flowing rivers, his hands to sculpt the land. When he was 10, he wanted […]
How Americans got hooked on “drive-thru” healthcare
When did getting a prescription start to feel like ordering at McDonald’s?
Rubio torches Democrat after bizarre hearing questions about his shoes: 'Is this a circus?'
Secretary of State Marco Rubio called a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing "a circus" after Democratic California Rep. Sara Jacobs questioned him about shoes gifted by Trump.
Dynasty Fantasy Football RB Rankings: Don't let Derrick Henry fool you, Father Time is coming for these backs
Dynasty RB rankings stay stable as McCaffrey, Barkley, Jacobs and Derrick Henry age
Eli Lilly's top dealmaker says don't be surprised to see more M&A that pushes Lilly into new areas
Eli Lilly's new top dealmaker explains how the company changed its approach to M&A now that it's the most valuable pharmaceutical company in the world.
Marvin Harrison Jr. gives concerning answer regarding Jacoby Brissett situation
GLENDALE – In his first chance to talk to the media this offseason, Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. revealed plenty about the relationship, or lack there of, with quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
‘Business as Usual’ for Packers as Josh Jacobs Returns to Practice.
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs has returned to practice following his arrest last Tuesday. Jacobs practiced on Monday and again on
Packers OTA Recap: Josh Jacobs returns to practice
Packers kicker Trey Smack went 4 of 8 on field goals during Tuesday’s practice
Josh Jacobs at practice Tuesday, Matt LaFleur calls it "business as usual"
Jacobs was arrested in Wisconsin last month.
Charli XCX announces new album 'Music, Fashion, Film' out in July
Charli XCX has announced 'Music, Fashion, Film,' an 11-track album arriving July 24, with cover art featuring John Cale, Marc Jacobs and Martin Scorsese as its titular muses.
Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski Produces Historic Month of May
Milwaukee Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski posted a historic month of May.
Jacob Misiorowski outduels Tatsuya Imai, pitches 7 scoreless innings in shutout of Astros to finish May with 1 run allowed
Misiorowski allowed just one run in 38 1/3 innings in May and lowered his ERA to 1.65 with Sunday's win.
Fantasy Baseball Winners and Losers from Week 9 2026
Jacob Misiorowski set a record that probably should not be possible. The week that was in fantasy baseball featured a 451-foot exclamation point from a man who had been making contact with the baseball at an elite level while somehow watching all of it stay inside the park, a 26-year-old pitcher who threw 57 pitches at 100 miles per hour or faster in a single game — a number that had never been achieved in the pitch-tracking era — and a Saturday afternoon at Citi Field that produced two of the purest moments of the season in the same box score.
Checking in on the NL Cy Young race: Shohei Ohtani, Jacob Misiorowski, Cristopher Sánchez lead a stacked field of contenders
Budda Baker speaks on Jacoby Brissett’s absence from Cardinals OTAs
GLENDALE – One of the most glaring comments in the Arizona Cardinals’ media session came from what defensive captain Budda Baker said about Jacoby Brissett’s holdout situation and the Cardinals’ QB future. Arizona safety Baker (3) celebrates a defensive stop against the Seattle Seahawks at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Sept.
Packers' Josh Jacobs arrested on domestic violence charges, denies allegations
Jacobs faces five charges after turning himself into police
Packers RB Josh Jacobs arrested Tuesday on 5 charges
The Packers running back was arrested and booked on Tuesday.
Chicago Cubs update: Ethan Roberts, Jacob Webb, Hoby Milner
This past week was mostly “down.”
Is Gardner Minshew the Cardinals answer at quarterback in 2026?
GLENDALE – With mandatory minicamps well on its way, the Arizona Cardinals are still without last year’s starting QB Jacoby Brissett. The 33-year-old is holding out for a new deal in 2026, after setting career marks in passing yards and touchdowns.
‘Euphoria’: Is Nate Jacobs Dead? That Rattlesnake Moment Explained
Inside that rattlesnake moment.
‘Euphoria’: Is Nate Jacobs Dead? That Rattlesnake Moment Explained
Inside that rattlesnake moment.